I would be shocked if May has Osborne in her Govt. One plus factor in her favour.
It would just look like business as usual...
May would be extremely vulnerable if and when things started to go wrong. As it is I reckon May is UKIP's preferred candidate. By a street. They will eat her for breakfast.
Chris Grayling will get a top job from Prime Minister Theresa May, I'm talking one of the great offices of state
Yep, he's been excellent throughout the campaign and very good at avoiding trashing his colleagues. Fox will get something, he too has been loyal and sensible. Leadsom is too inexperienced to be Chancellor, maybe First Sec or one of the Brexit team.
Leadsom has got a far better business background than Osborne when he became CoE in 2010?
Someone working the tills at a supermarket has a better business background than Osborne!
i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing
I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.
PM: May DPM and Brexit: Gove CoE: Leadsom For Sec: Osborne Home: Hammond Defence: Johnson [if he wants a job at all]
That would be a strong line-up though I think Osborne needs a spell on the backbenches so I'd say keep Hammond as For Sec and give Home to someone else.
Putting Leadsom at home is the usual gender stereotyping. Time for a female CoE! Anyway WTF is so good about Hammond?
Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
Chris Grayling will get a top job from Prime Minister Theresa May, I'm talking one of the great offices of state
Yep, he's been excellent throughout the campaign and very good at avoiding trashing his colleagues. Fox will get something, he too has been loyal and sensible. Leadsom is too inexperienced to be Chancellor, maybe First Sec or one of the Brexit team.
I think BIS would be good for her, especially now that he UK will be getting trade competency back from the EU. We could even rename it to the DTI!
Do we even need BIS? It was created partly to give Mandy a job. I'd be minded to put the universities bit back in Education where it belongs, the Business part back in the Treasury, and the deregulation bit in No 10 (as Maggie did) .
LOL! Who on Earth is backing him? He's not an MP, and as far as I can tell hasn't said anything in public in months!
People are hearing much in that silence...
But really, Brand Miliband is trashed. Unfair on David, but that is splash-back for not having the balls to take on Gordon when the opportunity opened up.
To give an extreme (and admittedly tasteless) analogy, if Dr. Harold Shipman had a doctor brother, would people still be queueing up to be on his patient list?
i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing
I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.
She doesn't need to.
PBers are massively over-rating Leadsom's chances. Most party members have barely heard of her.
If the final two are May and Leadsom then straight away Leadsom becomes the Leave candidate. Its not just individuals it's factions too.
exactly, and if membership vote down leave/remain lines then Leadsom wins. She also has much less baggage than May and with May minds are lagely made up, Andrea is underestimated in polling due to her less prominent position. With minds still to be made up May is rightfully favourite but all too often being in the lead this early in the campaign is not where you wish to be and momnetum could be key.
The Remainers will vote for May. The Leavers will be more nuanced, as the YouGov poll the other night showed. Theresa has positioned herself beautifully.
I've laid the snot out of him. Rubio backers MK II
It's not, like, completely impossible.
I mean, I guess I might back him at 1000/1 on a *who knows what might happen if Corbyn hangs on for five years* basis.
Although he's not an MP, has expressed no interest in becoming an MP and is hardly likely to for as long as he'd have to sign up to a Corbynite agenda. His brand of Labour is hugely out of favour with the Labour members and is likely to become more so after Chilcot reports (albeit briefly).
1000/1 is about right. Probably the most realistic scenario - and this is so out there that it's practically Fantasy Politics - is for a split to occur in Labour, for SDP2 to adopt a centrist agenda, for Miliband to return in a by-election and then take over the leadership, and then for SDP2 to reunite with Labour after being trounced in 2020 (or an earlier GE), while Corbyn hangs on.
The figures from the poll in the header give a good idea of how the membership of Labour has shifted in the last year: just look at the numbers for those who've left and those who've joined.
Chris Grayling will get a top job from Prime Minister Theresa May, I'm talking one of the great offices of state
Yep, he's been excellent throughout the campaign and very good at avoiding trashing his colleagues. Fox will get something, he too has been loyal and sensible. Leadsom is too inexperienced to be Chancellor, maybe First Sec or one of the Brexit team.
I think BIS would be good for her, especially now that he UK will be getting trade competency back from the EU. We could even rename it to the DTI!
It's going to be a key position in the next government, responsible for trade deals and the changed environment. Needs to go to someone positive and internationalist who doesn't mind spending a lot of time on planes!
i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing
I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.
She doesn't need to.
PBers are massively over-rating Leadsom's chances. Most party members have barely heard of her.
If the final two are May and Leadsom then straight away Leadsom becomes the Leave candidate. Its not just individuals it's factions too.
exactly, and if membership vote down leave/remain lines then Leadsom wins. She also has much less baggage than May and with May minds are lagely made up, Andrea is underestimated in polling due to her less prominent position. With minds still to be made up May is rightfully favourite but all too often being in the lead this early in the campaign is not where you wish to be and momnetum could be key.
The Remainers will vote for May. The Leavers will be more nuanced, as the YouGov poll the other night showed. Theresa has positioned herself beautifully.
i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing
I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.
She doesn't need to.
PBers are massively over-rating Leadsom's chances. Most party members have barely heard of her.
If the final two are May and Leadsom then straight away Leadsom becomes the Leave candidate. Its not just individuals it's factions too.
exactly, and if membership vote down leave/remain lines then Leadsom wins. She also has much less baggage than May and with May minds are lagely made up, Andrea is underestimated in polling due to her less prominent position. With minds still to be made up May is rightfully favourite but all too often being in the lead this early in the campaign is not where you wish to be and momnetum could be key.
The Remainers will vote for May. The Leavers will be more nuanced, as the YouGov poll the other night showed. Theresa has positioned herself beautifully.
Chris Grayling will get a top job from Prime Minister Theresa May, I'm talking one of the great offices of state
Yep, he's been excellent throughout the campaign and very good at avoiding trashing his colleagues. Fox will get something, he too has been loyal and sensible. Leadsom is too inexperienced to be Chancellor, maybe First Sec or one of the Brexit team.
I think BIS would be good for her, especially now that he UK will be getting trade competency back from the EU. We could even rename it to the DTI!
Do we even need BIS? It was created partly to give Mandy a job. I'd be minded to put the universities bit back in Education where it belongs, the Business part back in the Treasury, and the deregulation bit in No 10 (as Maggie did) .
I think we'll need a department which deals with trade now, and BIS could easily be reconstituted into the old DTI.
i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing
I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.
She doesn't need to.
PBers are massively over-rating Leadsom's chances. Most party members have barely heard of her.
If the final two are May and Leadsom then straight away Leadsom becomes the Leave candidate. Its not just individuals it's factions too.
Not really. Most members (and indeed most MPs) are neither fanatical Leavers nor fanatical Remainers and won't vote on factional lines. That division is rapidly becoming ancient history, the decision has been taken to leave and it's now about the best way forward. That's why MPs such as Maria Caulfield (a very strong Leaver) are happy to support Stephen Crabb, and Grayling supports Theresa May.
That is not what happened in the IDS vs Ken Clarke vote and the Conservative party has become even more eurosceptic since then.
Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
I'm amazed that there's no great change in voting intention, is the electorate shell-shocked?
i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing
I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.
She doesn't need to.
PBers are massively over-rating Leadsom's chances. Most party members have barely heard of her.
If the final two are May and Leadsom then straight away Leadsom becomes the Leave candidate. Its not just individuals it's factions too.
exactly, and if membership vote down leave/remain lines then Leadsom wins. She also has much less baggage than May and with May minds are lagely made up, Andrea is underestimated in polling due to her less prominent position. With minds still to be made up May is rightfully favourite but all too often being in the lead this early in the campaign is not where you wish to be and momnetum could be key.
The Remainers will vote for May. The Leavers will be more nuanced, as the YouGov poll the other night showed. Theresa has positioned herself beautifully.
LOL! Who on Earth is backing him? He's not an MP, and as far as I can tell hasn't said anything in public in months!
People are hearing much in that silence...
But really, Brand Miliband is trashed. Unfair on David, but that is splash-back for not having the balls to take on Gordon when the opportunity opened up.
To give an extreme (and admittedly tasteless) analogy, if Dr. Harold Shipman had a doctor brother, would people still be queueing up to be on his patient list?
Ouch! I would lay him but there's only about a tenner there, it's 1/10 and could be four or five years away yet.
Labour rebels seem to have run out of people to resign from the Shadow Cabinet.
Bad tactics.
No, it's because virtually all of the Shadow Cabinet have resigned.
There is another....
Paging Lord Falconer.
They should have gone for a revolving door technique where people signed up at the back of the queue and then resigned when they became the longest serving. Indeed for a while it looked like that was the plan
Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
I'm amazed that there's no great change in voting intention, is the electorate shell-shocked?
When the new PM is chosen (almost anyone) I expect to see a major uplift for the Conservatives.
Chris Grayling will get a top job from Prime Minister Theresa May, I'm talking one of the great offices of state
Yep, he's been excellent throughout the campaign and very good at avoiding trashing his colleagues. Fox will get something, he too has been loyal and sensible. Leadsom is too inexperienced to be Chancellor, maybe First Sec or one of the Brexit team.
Leadsom has got a far better business background than Osborne when he became CoE in 2010?
Sure. But it's not a business position, it's a political and government position.
I understand that Leavers are terribly keen on her, but that's only because she's the only vaguely credible figure who told them what they wanted to hear. That doesn't make her suddenly capable of going straight into the number 2 job (as even Boris, to his credit, appears to have realised).
The idea that the Chancellor's role is the number 2 job is a very recent creation and it has come about by the personalities involved. Blair basically conceded domestic policy to Brown, which massively increased the power of the Treasury and Cameron has continued the idea with his BFF Osborne. When I was at the Home Office in the early-mid nineties certainly the Treasury was powerful but it didn't dictate policy.
There is no good reason why a future PM, should continue with such arrangements. In fact there are many good reasons why they should chop the Treasury down to size. A company, be it in manufacturing or service, that lets its accountants become over-powerful is doomed because money not the needs of customers becomes the priority.
I backed Kingdom Come: Deliverance. It's had a few development problems but still looks promising. My Steam backlog is enormous so I'm on a no-games diet until I've caught up at least a little. Factorio is my sleeper hit of the decade. I have wasted more time on that game than anything else bar DoTA 2.
If we're thinking putative line-ups under PM May - there will clearly be a very important post that hasn't been mentioned yet.... Chief Whip.
Now do you give it to Osborne on the grounds of keeping your enemies as close as possible, or is that the perfect place for him to do a Francis Urghuart (House of Cards original version) from.
Who else do you have in that role - whatevers going on with Labour they should at least all manage to troop through a lobby opposing cuts to Welfare, the NHS or whatever is needed - so you need a tight ship on the Tory side given the parliamentary artithmetic.
George Osborne for Chief Whip, on so many levels, works for me.
Steve Bell, the Guardian cartoonist, would be positively priapic all weekend at the thought...
May really should be a shoo-in now, and yet, this is the selectorate who gave us IDS.
I can't rule out Gove or Leadsom getting it, if they are one of the final two.
It would be preferable if the others dropped out, and we had a coronation of May next week - and get on with the slow process of sorting out this bloody mess....
Chris Grayling will get a top job from Prime Minister Theresa May, I'm talking one of the great offices of state
Yep, he's been excellent throughout the campaign and very good at avoiding trashing his colleagues. Fox will get something, he too has been loyal and sensible. Leadsom is too inexperienced to be Chancellor, maybe First Sec or one of the Brexit team.
Leadsom has got a far better business background than Osborne when he became CoE in 2010?
Sure. But it's not a business position, it's a political and government position.
I understand that Leavers are terribly keen on her, but that's only because she's the only vaguely credible figure who told them what they wanted to hear. That doesn't make her suddenly capable of going straight into the number 2 job (as even Boris, to his credit, appears to have realised).
The idea that the Chancellor's role is the number 2 job is a very recent creation and it has come about by the personalities involved. Blair basically conceded domestic policy to Brown, which massively increased the power of the Treasury and Cameron has continued the idea with his BFF Osborne. When I was at the Home Office in the early-mid nineties certainly the Treasury was powerful but it didn't dictate policy.
There is no good reason why a future PM, should continue with such arrangements. In fact there are many good reasons why they should chop the Treasury down to size. A company, be it in manufacturing or service, that lets its accountants become over-powerful is doomed because money not the needs of customers becomes the priority.
Well said. FSec was a big role - now it can be so again.
The NHS spends £115bn/year. £100m/week is £5.2bn over four years. So, really, he's promising 1.2% annual rises to the NHS budget. Which might very well be less than inflation.
i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing
I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.
She doesn't need to.
PBers are massively over-rating Leadsom's chances. Most party members have barely heard of her.
If the final two are May and Leadsom then straight away Leadsom becomes the Leave candidate. Its not just individuals it's factions too.
Not really. Most members (and indeed most MPs) are neither fanatical Leavers nor fanatical Remainers and won't vote on factional lines. That division is rapidly becoming ancient history, the decision has been taken to leave and it's now about the best way forward. That's why MPs such as Maria Caulfield (a very strong Leaver) are happy to support Stephen Crabb, and Grayling supports Theresa May.
That is not what happened in the IDS vs Ken Clarke vote and the Conservative party has become even more eurosceptic since then.
Then the Tories were enjoying the luxury of opposition. The responsibilities of government will concentrate minds..
After May 2015 and last week Mike still follows what the Opinion polls say. I would dismiss them, they have serious problems with methodology and perceptions.
Comments
It would just look like business as usual...
May would be extremely vulnerable if and when things started to go wrong. As it is I reckon May is UKIP's preferred candidate. By a street. They will eat her for breakfast.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 34% (-)
LAB: 29% (-1)
UKIP: 17% (-2)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Opinium / 28 - 30 Jun)
Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
Edit: I misread service for silence. Sorry!
But really, Brand Miliband is trashed. Unfair on David, but that is splash-back for not having the balls to take on Gordon when the opportunity opened up.
To give an extreme (and admittedly tasteless) analogy, if Dr. Harold Shipman had a doctor brother, would people still be queueing up to be on his patient list?
Paging Lord Falconer.
(p4 here: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sp4prmurxb/TimesResults_160629_ConMembers.pdf )
1000/1 is about right. Probably the most realistic scenario - and this is so out there that it's practically Fantasy Politics - is for a split to occur in Labour, for SDP2 to adopt a centrist agenda, for Miliband to return in a by-election and then take over the leadership, and then for SDP2 to reunite with Labour after being trounced in 2020 (or an earlier GE), while Corbyn hangs on.
The figures from the poll in the header give a good idea of how the membership of Labour has shifted in the last year: just look at the numbers for those who've left and those who've joined.
You didn't appreciate the tome of it ?
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
I would lay him but there's only about a tenner there, it's 1/10 and could be four or five years away yet.
There is no good reason why a future PM, should continue with such arrangements. In fact there are many good reasons why they should chop the Treasury down to size. A company, be it in manufacturing or service, that lets its accountants become over-powerful is doomed because money not the needs of customers becomes the priority.
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/7/3/1404421393919/Steve-Bell-04.07.2014-004.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=65f8416abf38b9368a9110d915751d1d
I can't rule out Gove or Leadsom getting it, if they are one of the final two.
It would be preferable if the others dropped out, and we had a coronation of May next week - and get on with the slow process of sorting out this bloody mess....
edit p.s. ... and it rises with the inflation in the EU budget