politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds that Corbyn has lost his LAB membe

SouthamObserver said:

Gove is surely not seriously campaigning for the leadership. He just wants to make sure he gets a big office of state when May takes over. Chancellor will be very tricky for him given the promises that he has previously made about extra public spending and no tax increases.

The £100 million more a week on the NHS by 2020 is, of course, very different to £350 million extra a week. I imagine that we are already projected to spend something like £100 million more on the NHS than we are now. "Extra" would be on top of that.

now drifting past 15 on BF.

It really is unacceptable to have Osborne making these statements. No other Minister is making any "change of policy" statements. The most is Transport's "delay Heathrow decision for next PM".

"Chancellor George Osborne has abandoned his target to restore government finances to a surplus by 2020, the BBC has learned.
However, the Chancellor said the UK must be "realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of the decade". The UK economy is showing "clear signs" of shock in the aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union, he said. Even before that vote, there were questions over whether Mr Osborne would be able to balance the budget by 2020.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36684452

Mr. Borough, the NATO aspect surprised me too.

I wonder if it's to try and make people think that being in the EU makes as much sense as being in NATO. Does seem odd.

Pulpstar said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d8itmsB9dCfJwBIgpDFzCSMXAG1TvMR9qEJViOE9UXc/edit#gid=178471611

For long term Lib Dem targets read down from the top.
For long term UKIP, up from the bottom.

Wow. That is an amazing spreadsheet.

There are a lot of ex- (and possibly future) LD seats at the top of that list.

i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing

TCPoliticalBetting said:

It really is unacceptable to have Osborne making these statements. No other Minister is making any "change of policy" statements. The most is Transport's "delay Heathrow decision for next PM".

"Chancellor George Osborne has abandoned his target to restore government finances to a surplus by 2020, the BBC has learned.
However, the Chancellor said the UK must be "realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of the decade". The UK economy is showing "clear signs" of shock in the aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union, he said. Even before that vote, there were questions over whether Mr Osborne would be able to balance the budget by 2020.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36684452

Burying the admission that the targets were always bogus and aimed only at embarrassing Labour during the election?

Norm said:

Gove as ever a true radical but he needed Boris as avuncular frontman to work. Too late now

Yes, he was right in his previous self assessment. Absolutely needs to be in the Cabinet, has done great work at education and justice but I don't think he's the right personality for the top job.

!

TCPoliticalBetting said:

rottenborough said:

JackW said:

Is Brutus still going ....

Yes. Homes for All now.

What about Owls for all?

I guess Unicorns have been dropped too?

Brom said:

i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing

I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.

PlatoSaid said:

anotherDave said:

Czech republic
"Czech President Milos Zeman has called for the Czech Republic to hold a referendum on its membership of the European Union and NATO following Britain's shock vote to leave the EU, though he said he backed his country staying in both organisations.

Zeman has no power to call a referendum, which would require a constitutional amendment. But he is an influential leader in a country where many voters are sceptical about the EU"

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-czech-president-idUKKCN0ZH4AV

The Slovakians have offered to help our *velvet revolution*. I thought that was pretty indicative of their sentiments too.

Britain standing tall with the new axis of Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

Brexit. Binit.

bigjohnowls said:

!

Can SO use white HTML Tags only please!!!!!

Gove: guaranteed one Charlie Falconer resignation per day until 2020.

rcs1000 said:

Brom said:

i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing

I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.

PM: May
DPM and Brexit: Gove
CoE: Leadsom
For Sec: Osborne
Home: Hammond
Defence: Johnson [if he wants a job at all]

TCPoliticalBetting said:

It really is unacceptable to have Osborne making these statements. No other Minister is making any "change of policy" statements. The most is Transport's "delay Heathrow decision for next PM".

"Chancellor George Osborne has abandoned his target to restore government finances to a surplus by 2020, the BBC has learned.
However, the Chancellor said the UK must be "realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of the decade". The UK economy is showing "clear signs" of shock in the aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union, he said. Even before that vote, there were questions over whether Mr Osborne would be able to balance the budget by 2020.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36684452

Why? The work continues, reassuring the markets continues. Or should all work stop until 2 September?

DecrepitJohnL said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

It really is unacceptable to have Osborne making these statements. No other Minister is making any "change of policy" statements. The most is Transport's "delay Heathrow decision for next PM".

"Chancellor George Osborne has abandoned his target to restore government finances to a surplus by 2020, the BBC has learned.
However, the Chancellor said the UK must be "realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of the decade". The UK economy is showing "clear signs" of shock in the aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union, he said. Even before that vote, there were questions over whether Mr Osborne would be able to balance the budget by 2020.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36684452

Burying the admission that the targets were always bogus and aimed only at embarrassing Labour during the election?

I have this funny feeling we will be having the same nonsense wheeled out in 2020 as well. Surplus by 2025...

SouthamObserver said:

Gove is surely not seriously campaigning for the leadership. He just wants to make sure he gets a big office of state when May takes over. Chancellor will be very tricky for him given the promises that he has previously made about extra public spending and no tax increases.

The £100 million more a week on the NHS by 2020 is, of course, very different to £350 million extra a week. I imagine that we are already projected to spend something like £100 million more on the NHS than we are now. "Extra" would be on top of that.

I still do not understand what this Gove bid is all about. Like you I can't believe he is serious about wanting the top job, but he would have been kept in a top job anyway (he has been in one for the last six years who would throw him out now).

Reading the articles in the Telegraph yesterday, I suppose it is possible that he has been manipulated, by Cameron amongst others, into it with the intention that he would kill of Boris's bid and in doing so crash and burn himself. But that does seem a bit far fetched.

Something is very odd about this. I suppose we will have to wait for the memoirs to get some semblance of what is actually going on.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

It really is unacceptable to have Osborne making these statements. No other Minister is making any "change of policy" statements.

Lol, a few days ago, Osborne and Cameron were being blamed for not taking control and having a fully developed plan for Brexit.

Why don't they just give it to Theresa now...

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Brom said:

i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing

I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.

PM: May
DPM and Brexit: Gove
CoE: Leadsom
For Sec: Osborne
Home: Hammond
Party Chairman: Johnson [if he wants a job at all]

FTFY but except for the last it fits all criteria...

TCPoliticalBetting said:

It really is unacceptable to have Osborne making these statements. No other Minister is making any "change of policy" statements. The most is Transport's "delay Heathrow decision for next PM".

"Chancellor George Osborne has abandoned his target to restore government finances to a surplus by 2020, the BBC has learned.
However, the Chancellor said the UK must be "realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of the decade". The UK economy is showing "clear signs" of shock in the aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union, he said. Even before that vote, there were questions over whether Mr Osborne would be able to balance the budget by 2020.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36684452

He's just tidying his desk, leaving no outstanding undelivered bits of promises that history can lay at his door when he departs Downing Street....

Nice try George. It won't wash...

tyson said:

Tissue_Price said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Gove vs Corbyn.

Can anyone imagine it ?

PM Tim Farron?

Not even I'm that optimistic, but yes it does help us to 'Win here'.

Lib Dem Gain Hornsey Wood Green, hold Hallam - perhaps even gain Richmond Park....

TBH I thought you were a left-wing Tory Pulpstar, I didn't realise you were a Liberal!

Pulpstar votes whichever way his Betfair book tells him to

I've got to say I love Pulpstars complete and utter commitment to his betfair strategy above all else...it is one of nice eccentricities of pbCOM

I'm rather shamefully about £70 underwater on the Tories right now. Quite disgusted with myself.

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

Apparently there are two pages of speech to go!

They are the 2 lost pages of the rumoured resignation of Charlie Falconer form the Labopur front bench.

Guffaw

Mortimer said:

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Brom said:

i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing

I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.

PM: May
DPM and Brexit: Gove
CoE: Leadsom
For Sec: Osborne
Home: Hammond
Defence: Johnson [if he wants a job at all]

What, no job for Fox? *innocent face*

I don't know if you remember, but Fox had a bit of a bumpy ride last time.

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

There is no point in being a creative thinker if you are not able to do anything with the thinking. For McDonnell to have any chance of turning thoughts into policies - or even just to influence the debate on Brexit from the opposition benches - Labour needs a new leader. Could members find it in themselves to vote for another candidate if McDonnell was part of the package? In other words, do as Tyson says: find a leader that can speak to middle Britain (England) as well as the Labour heartlands, with McDonnell guaranteed the shadow chancellor slot in any new cabinet? Someone like Dan Jarvis gets Labour a hearing in places where labour will not be heard right now. That is an opportunity for McDonnell, as well as other left wingers. What labour needs more than anything else is a shadow cabinet in which its best operators are all contributing. I will concede you McDonnell, but I would also posit that it should include the likes of Umana, Reeves, Cooper, Smith, Leslie, and so on. The Tories need to be facing a credible opposition - for the good of the country, if nothing else. Corbyn just cannot deliver that.

Hmm. You're tempting me!

Nick, we need a credible Labour opposition. The country needs it. I very strongly believe that if Corbyn were to go, it would make such a huge difference not only to the way that Labour is seen by voters as a whole, but also to morale in the party. I think all sides have to be prepared to compromise to achieve that aim. It needs a recognition from the left - people like you - that there are better leaders for Labour than Corbyn; while the centre and the right - people like me - have to recognise that people like John McDonnell have earned, genuinely earned, a place at the top table of policy formation. A presentable leader who can open ears in places where Labour is not currently heard will actually help the left.

I don't know how it can be done, but there has to be a way for some kind of compromise to be reached. Corbyn is the problem here. It is not a policy thing. If he goes, it is almost like with one leap we are free.

CarlottaVance said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

It really is unacceptable to have Osborne making these statements. No other Minister is making any "change of policy" statements. The most is Transport's "delay Heathrow decision for next PM".

"Chancellor George Osborne has abandoned his target to restore government finances to a surplus by 2020, the BBC has learned.
However, the Chancellor said the UK must be "realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of the decade". The UK economy is showing "clear signs" of shock in the aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union, he said. Even before that vote, there were questions over whether Mr Osborne would be able to balance the budget by 2020.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36684452

Why? The work continues, reassuring the markets continues. Or should all work stop until 2 September?

The Brexifit cometh

Chris Grayling will get a top job from Prime Minister Theresa May, I'm talking one of the great offices of state

Pulpstar said:

tyson said:

Tissue_Price said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Gove vs Corbyn.

Can anyone imagine it ?

PM Tim Farron?

Not even I'm that optimistic, but yes it does help us to 'Win here'.

Lib Dem Gain Hornsey Wood Green, hold Hallam - perhaps even gain Richmond Park....

TBH I thought you were a left-wing Tory Pulpstar, I didn't realise you were a Liberal!

Pulpstar votes whichever way his Betfair book tells him to

I've got to say I love Pulpstars complete and utter commitment to his betfair strategy above all else...it is one of nice eccentricities of pbCOM

I'm rather shamefully about £70 underwater on the Tories right now. Quite disgusted with myself.

that's really careless Pulps.
I came out evens on Brexit in the end. I was too nervous on the night to bet on anything

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris Grayling will get a top job from Prime Minister Theresa May, I'm talking one of the great offices of state

Wow. Really?

Did I miss the day they made Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster a GOOS?

SimonStClare said:

rcs1000 said:

There are some good reasons to expect that Johnson will not wish to be considered for a top job, and may instead retire from front line politics at the next General Election.

Heard a rumour that Boris might become editor of the Telegraph.

I could see something like that happen.

GIN1138 said:

Why don't they just give it to Theresa now...

Because it delays any calls to invoke Article 50 giving us time to start negotiating deals...

Ideally you need Crabb as the second candidate so the result is obvious (allowing things to be done) while nothing is finalised (so nothing can be signed off)...

GIN1138 said:

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Brom said:

i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing

I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.

PM: May
DPM and Brexit: Gove
CoE: Leadsom
For Sec: Osborne
Home: Hammond
Defence: Johnson [if he wants a job at all]

That would be a strong line-up though I think Osborne needs a spell on the backbenches so I'd say keep Hammond as For Sec and give Home to someone else.

Gove would be a good HomeSec.

Lowlander said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Evershed, depends whether you view Boris as Caesar or Tarquin.

I'm writing a thread for the weekend comparing Boris to Hannibal Barca

That's a bit fair to Hannibal, after all he did manage to keep going for a considerable period of time after Cannae.

Boris capitulated barely 5 days after his greatest victory.

Phyrrus of Epirus

Osborne drops his 2020 surplus plan.

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

There is no point in being a creative thinker if you are not able to do anything with the thinking. For McDonnell to have any chance of turning thoughts into policies - or even just to influence the debate on Brexit from the opposition benches - Labour needs a new leader. Could members find it in themselves to vote for another candidate if McDonnell was part of the package? In other words, do as Tyson says: find a leader that can speak to middle Britain (England) as well as the Labour heartlands, with McDonnell guaranteed the shadow chancellor slot in any new cabinet? Someone like Dan Jarvis gets Labour a hearing in places where labour will not be heard right now. That is an opportunity for McDonnell, as well as other left wingers. What labour needs more than anything else is a shadow cabinet in which its best operators are all contributing. I will concede you McDonnell, but I would also posit that it should include the likes of Umana, Reeves, Cooper, Smith, Leslie, and so on. The Tories need to be facing a credible opposition - for the good of the country, if nothing else. Corbyn just cannot deliver that.

Hmm. You're tempting me!

Nick, we need a credible Labour opposition. The country needs it. I very strongly believe that if Corbyn were to go, it would make such a huge difference not only to the way that Labour is seen by voters as a whole, but also to morale in the party. I think all sides have to be prepared to compromise to achieve that aim. It needs a recognition from the left - people like you - that there are better leaders for Labour than Corbyn; while the centre and the right - people like me - have to recognise that people like John McDonnell have earned, genuinely earned, a place at the top table of policy formation. A presentable leader who can open ears in places where Labour is not currently heard will actually help the left.

I don't know how it can be done, but there has to be a way for some kind of compromise to be reached. Corbyn is the problem here. It is not a policy thing. If he goes, it is almost like with one leap we are free.

Agree that JM deserves a seat at Shadow Cabinet.

Leader? No.

Cooper would be a good candidate. The fact she performed badly in the leadership election when speaking to the largely hard-left membership is immaterial. She is sensible, intelligent, and grown up. Her femininity is an asset. And she would be broadly acceptable to all wings of the party.

Go Yvette!

And I'd get to see more of her on TV. Mmmmmmmm...

Gove going on a bit about his many friends !!

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Brom said:

i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing

I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.

PM: May
DPM and Brexit: Gove
CoE: Leadsom
For Sec: Osborne
Home: Hammond
Defence: Johnson [if he wants a job at all]

Please not Johnson at Defence, if anywhere. Defence needs someone with a grasp of detail and prepared to work hard so as to foil the wily machinations of the enemy - the Treasury. Johnson would be feckin useless at the job.

Osborne, in my view, should be consigned to the back benches, preferably of a No. 9 bus and not allowed anywhere near any position of power and influence. He enjoys the game too much over being an effective minister and actually doing his day job. He rose with Cameron let him pass away with Cameron.

PeterC said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I did expect Grayling to bugger things up during the referendum, but he was actually pretty on the level, which surprised me.

Mr. Mortimer, just so long as Fox gets more than Gove.

Grayling was one of the very few who came through it enhanced. He eschewed the nastiness and hysteria and came over polite and reasonable. Secretary of State for Brexit?

But he was a total twit at Justice

Thursday 7th July

May: 133, strangely down on Tuesday's vote
Gove: 100
Leadsom: 95

GOVE: "I am delighted to have received the support of 100 MPs and congratulate both Theresa on her victory and Andrea on her excellent campaign. However, it is very clear from my soundings amongst the local associations that Theresa commands the confidence of the members. I have therefore - reluctantly but firmly - concluded that I can best serve my country by stepping aside from this contest and letting Theresa get on with the job at hand."

HurstLlama said:

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Brom said:

i think we can face that it will be May vs Leadsom and I think it will be a close run thing

I wonder if Leadsom will be bought off by May: step down, endorse me, and get one of the great offices of state.

PM: May
DPM and Brexit: Gove
CoE: Leadsom
For Sec: Osborne
Home: Hammond
Defence: Johnson [if he wants a job at all]

Please not Johnson at Defence, if anywhere. Defence needs someone with a grasp of detail and prepared to work hard so as to foil the wily machinations of the enemy - the Treasury. Johnson would be feckin useless at the job.

Osborne, in my view, should be consigned to the back benches, preferably of a No. 9 bus and not allowed anywhere near any position of power and influence. He enjoys the game too much over being an effective minister and actually doing his day job. He rose with Cameron let him pass away with Cameron.

Wrong, he rose under Michael Howard

MTimT said:

Sandpit said:

RodCrosby said:

Isn't Gove dragging his speech out a bit?

Christ, I thought he'd finished there, but now he's off again...

He has a very well developed policy platform, for someone who only decided to stand 72 hours ago.

To be fair, if you are a thinker and have been in politics as long as he has, you would expect to have views on most major policy issues, so creating a platform would not take long.

He just said as much in the questions. That he wrote the 5,000 word speech yesterday and this morning, but his head has been full of ideas for years and he was just writing it all down in one go.

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

There is no point in being a creative thinker if you are not able to do anything with the thinking. For McDonnell to have any chance of turning thoughts into policies - or even just to influence the debate on Brexit from the opposition benches - Labour needs a new leader. Could members find it in themselves to vote for another candidate if McDonnell was part of the package? In other words, do as Tyson says: find a leader that can speak to middle Britain (England) as well as the Labour heartlands, with McDonnell guaranteed the shadow chancellor slot in any new cabinet? Someone like Dan Jarvis gets Labour a hearing in places where labour will not be heard right now. That is an opportunity for McDonnell, as well as other left wingers. What labour needs more than anything else is a shadow cabinet in which its best operators are all contributing. I will concede you McDonnell, but I would also posit that it should include the likes of Umana, Reeves, Cooper, Smith, Leslie, and so on. The Tories need to be facing a credible opposition - for the good of the country, if nothing else. Corbyn just cannot deliver that.

Hmm. You're tempting me!

Nick, we need a credible Labour opposition. The country needs it. I very strongly believe that if Corbyn were to go, it would make such a huge difference not only to the way that Labour is seen by voters as a whole, but also to morale in the party. I think all sides have to be prepared to compromise to achieve that aim. It needs a recognition from the left - people like you - that there are better leaders for Labour than Corbyn; while the centre and the right - people like me - have to recognise that people like John McDonnell have earned, genuinely earned, a place at the top table of policy formation. A presentable leader who can open ears in places where Labour is not currently heard will actually help the left.

I don't know how it can be done, but there has to be a way for some kind of compromise to be reached. Corbyn is the problem here. It is not a policy thing. If he goes, it is almost like with one leap we are free.

But they can't go from Corbyn to Angela Eagle. She comes across as a primary school head teacher, or social worker.
My issue with Corbyn has always been to his electability. Out of the frying pan into the fire springs to mind with Eagle.

I think Starmer or Jarvis would beat Corbyn in a contest if they embrace a large part of the Corbyn legacy in the campaign.

Eagle, if she chose to run, would be just as responsible as Corbyn for running the party off a cliff.

Utterly OT, but those into videogames may be interested in my ramble about stuff we learnt from E3:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/e3-ramble.html

AndyJS said:

Osborne drops his 2020 surplus plan.

Whoever would have thought it?? It's almost as if the plan was entirely political and designed to make life difficult for Labour.

For a decent opposition this is an absolute gold plated, where would sir like to sit, can I pour you a whisky, dinner will be served soon, opportunity.

Corbyn has to go, surely.

O/T:

Set back for self-drive cars:

"Tesla Driver In First Self-Drive Fatal Crash
Joshua Brown was killed when his car's cameras apparently failed to pick out a white trailer against a bright sky."

http://news.sky.com/story/1720018/tesla-driver-in-first-self-drive-fatal-crash

It's over. He's finally agreed to QUIT!

Ryan Giggs has agreed a settlement package to leave Manchester United

Tissue_Price said:

Thursday 7th July

May: 133, strangely down on Tuesday's vote
Gove: 100
Leadsom: 95

GOVE: "I am delighted to have received the support of 100 MPs and congratulate both Theresa on her victory and Andrea on her excellent campaign. However, it is very clear from my soundings amongst the local associations that Theresa commands the confidence of the members. I have therefore - reluctantly but firmly - concluded that I can best serve my country by stepping aside from this contest and letting Theresa get on with the job at hand."

That could bring the question of when to invoke Article 50 back on the agenda. As I said before ideally you want a member's vote as it allows time to negotiate or at least fact find without pressure...