I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
It's crashing out of the ERM redux.
It led to a fall in sterling boosting against expectations investment and exports leading to a boost in economic growth. We are following the exact same trajectory at the moment.
As predicted by many on here before the referendum. Why some of those in charge - yes you, Mr Carney - seem to want to talk up a recession I don't understand. Their economic pessimism can end up being a self fulfilling prophecy.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
Good old pbc. Where else can you go for such incisive, intelligent political debate?
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
It's a personality flaw of mine, that I do sometimes judge people on who they can get to marry them - I don't she reflects well on him.
The Gove's make the Hamiltons seem normal.
I once met the Hamiltons in a Moroccan restaurant in Soho at 11pm on a Friday night; they were with Madonna's hat designer and Norman Wisdom's agent - no really. They were charming - no, no really.
Talk about 'Z' list celebrities.
If its the restaurant I am thinking of, it's not very good.
Is Corbyn in deeper trouble with this revelation? "Yesterday, Momentum activist and Guardian journalist Marc Wadsworth made Jewish MP Ruth Smeeth burst into tears amid heckles that she was colluding with the right-wing press. Afterwards, in this extraordinary footage, Corbyn can be seen laughing and shaking hands with Wadsworth as he regales the leader how “I outed Smeeth, bloody talking to the Torygraph this morning.” More concerning, Corbyn tells Wadsworth “I sent you a text about it”. Corbyn clearly knows the activist and had prior communication with him…"
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.
Quite - kle4's point about his friendship with Cameron is probably true. But let's say Gove drops out next Tuesday - does he back May or Leadsom? I really don't know.
That could very well be the most important question.
Hence Gove has something to bargain with. Hence he isn't finished.
I don’t think Gove has a chance in hell of winning the leadership after all this kafuffle, he would however fit in quite well in either a May or Leadsom lead party imho, he’s to ‘useful’ to be dumped on the backbenches.
Agreed and all so unnecessary if you read Tony Newton Dunn's version of events which largely pins it on Boris's organisational cock-ups once freed from the discipline of the Vote Leave campaign. Maybe he would have been a disastrous PM as Portillo and others claim but at least his diary would have been organised by others so that particular failing could have been minimised. Boris's optimism in dealing with upcoming challenges was a facet undervalued in this debate after the shock of Brexit especially given referendum naysayers have been doing their best to talk the UK down ever since. Now denied of their expectation of seeing Boris on the ballot paper older, traditional Tory members in particular will now see Gove as a calculating assassin whatever the rights and wrongs of the case and it is hard to see the justice secretary progress from here.
How much of a faction does George Osborne still command post the referendum muck up? I assumed not much, but the way he played Michael Gove was masterful. (Unless there are further twists in the plot that I am not aware of?)
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
The markets and the pound are up because Carney hinted at a rate cut. (Presumably from 0.5% to actually 0%). Fair dinkum. I think Carney has not acted well in the Brexit drama. His talk yesterday of national post traumatic stress disorder was, well PTSDish itself. Central bankers everywhere are a large part of why the world is as fucked up as it is. They lead on moral hazard where others fear to tread. ZIRP gives a sugar rush now but fundamentally undermines the basis of a market economy - that savers get a return and will invest. I hope May's new chancellor replaces him.
I wasn't impressed by his tone either. He needs replacing.
Don't be ridiculous. We need calm and to reassure the markets. Firing the chairman isn't exactly going to send that message is it. Carney is doing fine, we priced in £50-75bn in QE and a rate cut to 0.25%, it looks like this is what he is going to do. Carney is just saying what we're all thinking, if we leave the single market the economic pain is going to take years of hard labour to clear. We can't just overnight leave a free trading area worth £280bn in exports with no plan as to how to keep preferential access to that market and how to replace any lost income by opening up new markets. Both situations can be resolved, but right now the uncertainty is hurting in certain sectors. I think it will be balanced out by weak sterling for a lot of businesses, but then again, I don't have the Bank's forecasting tools to hand.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
The markets and the pound are up because Carney hinted at a rate cut. (Presumably from 0.5% to actually 0%). Fair dinkum. I think Carney has not acted well in the Brexit drama. His talk yesterday of national post traumatic stress disorder was, well PTSDish itself. Central bankers everywhere are a large part of why the world is as fucked up as it is. They lead on moral hazard where others fear to tread. ZIRP gives a sugar rush now but fundamentally undermines the basis of a market economy - that savers get a return and will invest. I hope May's new chancellor replaces him.
I wasn't impressed by his tone either. He needs replacing.
Don't be ridiculous. We need calm and to reassure the markets. Firing the chairman isn't exactly going to send that message is it. Carney is doing fine, we priced in £50-75bn in QE and a rate cut to 0.25%, it looks like this is what he is going to do. Carney is just saying what we're all thinking, if we leave the single market the economic pain is going to take years of hard labour to clear. We can't just overnight leave a free trading area worth £280bn in exports with no plan as to how to keep preferential access to that market and how to replace any lost income by opening up new markets. Both situations can be resolved, but right now the uncertainty is hurting in certain sectors. I think it will be balanced out by weak sterling for a lot of businesses, but then again, I don't have the Bank's forecasting tools to hand.
Quite. Mark Carney obviously would have preferred a remain win - but he is doing a good job right now.
How much of a faction does George Osborne still command post the referendum muck up? I assumed not much, but the way he played Michael Gove was masterful. (Unless there are further twists in the plot that I am not aware of?)
Rudd, Hancock and McLoughlin have lined up behind Theresa, they are his people. It looks like he is about to double/triple cross Gove and get his revenge for Brexit on both Gove and Boris.
How much of a faction does George Osborne still command post the referendum muck up? I assumed not much, but the way he played Michael Gove was masterful. (Unless there are further twists in the plot that I am not aware of?)
And it's not like she was a wheeler dealer bad banker; it looks like she was quite a boring banker.
Her work exposing the LIBOR scandal using Treasury Select Committee is pretty impressive. She's a gamekeeper, not a poacher.
She was not really a banker at all. Her experience is in the investment management industry, which is very different to that of investment bankers, let alone traders. Her City experience - while good - is relatively focused. It would be wrong to assume that she knows about all parts of the financial sector, which encompasses far more than LIBOR-style traders. Worth bearing this in mind when listening to what she has to say on the financial services passport. Her experience is in one sector which may be relatively less affected by its loss.
Do you have a preference among the Con leader candidates?
How much of a faction does George Osborne still command post the referendum muck up? I assumed not much, but the way he played Michael Gove was masterful. (Unless there are further twists in the plot that I am not aware of?)
Rudd, Hancock and McLoughlin have lined up behind Theresa, they are his people. It looks like he is about to double/triple cross Gove and get his revenge for Brexit on both Gove and Boris.
This sort of skullduggery is Osborne's strong suit to be fair.
Boris a pawn of Gove's game all the while being played by George !
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?
I can't think of any, while their party was in government. Plenty from opposition of course, Cameron and Blair being the two most recent examples.
Leadsom does have the feel of the dark horse he steals away with the party membership at the end, but, I think this time there is a general feeling that the country needs a firm grip and experience - I have no idea, but suspect (hope) that Tory members will feel the same way.
Of course, there is speculation that there wont be a ballot as May will sweep up all the MPs in their ballots.
I think the Party will consider her professional experience prior to Parliament sufficient to match May's political experience.
Leadsom worked in the financial sector for BZW, Barclays Bank – where she was Financial Institutions Director from 1993 to 1997 – and was Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management (DPFM) between 1997 and 1999. She was Head of Corporate Governance and Senior Investment Officer at Invesco Perpetual from 1999 to 2009.[1][7]
Pah! I have a much more impressive CV than that. At the risk of going all SeanT like, I have worked in government, been part of British delegations to Brussels, my first financial services case was the Guinness scandal, the Adoboli case was one of mine, I've worked at two top tier law firms specialising in financial services litigation, have worked at a hedge fund, two US and a Swiss bank, done criminal legal aid and have written and lectured on law and financial matters and have set up my own team of top notch investigators from a standing start.
If that's all it takes,I should be PM and I dare say that there are plenty of other PB'ers with equally if not more impressive experience. But being PM, especially at a time like this, requires perhaps other skills.......
Mrs J is rather Borisphobic, and she asked me a question this morning: could I name successes Boris had during his eight years as MoL?
Off the top of my head I came up with Boris Bikes, which is quite possibly a Livingstone policy, and Crossrail (debatable; construction started under Boris, but planning for decades before).
What else? It's early days, but how will the history of Boris's mayoralty be written?
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead. I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???
I think Lib Dems will pick up a bit but nothing dramatic. Most of my money on the next GE will be going on turnout, I think we will get the lowest turnout for a very long time.
Watching the whole referendum and Tory leadership scenario play out I honestly cannot see this country making any major political decision in the near future that is not acceptable to Murdoch /Dacre etc. I think we are heading to 50% type GE turnouts like the US. I have never missed voting but wouldn't waste the energy of walking to he polling station if there was a GE next month, to be honest I wouldn't even register to vote other than it being a legal requirement
I know the Tory PBers will all howl sour grapes and worse with some justification but we are all entitled to our opinions, the referendum was a momentous decision and for what it's worth we now live in Daily Mail Britain and it's going to be like that for a very long time.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?
I can't think of any, while their party was in government. Plenty from opposition of course, Cameron and Blair being the two most recent examples.
Leadsom does have the feel of the dark horse he steals away with the party membership at the end, but, I think this time there is a general feeling that the country needs a firm grip and experience - I have no idea, but suspect (hope) that Tory members will feel the same way.
Of course, there is speculation that there wont be a ballot as May will sweep up all the MPs in their ballots.
I think the Party will consider her professional experience prior to Parliament sufficient to match May's political experience.
Leadsom worked in the financial sector for BZW, Barclays Bank – where she was Financial Institutions Director from 1993 to 1997 – and was Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management (DPFM) between 1997 and 1999. She was Head of Corporate Governance and Senior Investment Officer at Invesco Perpetual from 1999 to 2009.[1][7]
Pah! I have a much more impressive CV than that. At the risk of going all SeanT like, I have worked in government, been part of British delegations to Brussels, my first financial services case was the Guinness scandal, the Adoboli case was one of mine, I've worked at two top tier law firms specialising in financial services litigation, have worked at a hedge fund, two US and a Swiss bank, done criminal legal aid and have written and lectured on law and financial matters and have set up my own team of top notch investigators from a standing start.
If that's all it takes,I should be PM and I dare say that there are plenty of other PB'ers with equally if not more impressive experience. But being PM, especially at a time like this, requires perhaps other skills.......
But I presume you wouldn't be prepared to take the pay cut; or the abuse!
They are a awful. Too long in the "thought bubbles" me thinks.
I think the unborn baby saying "I'm in" ,was good, the one that said don't leave it, lead it was crap because it does not resonate at all people don't feel like the E.U can be reformed.
The remain campaign was shit because the E.U is shit.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
The markets and the pound are up because Carney hinted at a rate cut. (Presumably from 0.5% to actually 0%). Fair dinkum. I think Carney has not acted well in the Brexit drama. His talk yesterday of national post traumatic stress disorder was, well PTSDish itself. Central bankers everywhere are a large part of why the world is as fucked up as it is. They lead on moral hazard where others fear to tread. ZIRP gives a sugar rush now but fundamentally undermines the basis of a market economy - that savers get a return and will invest. I hope May's new chancellor replaces him.
I wasn't impressed by his tone either. He needs replacing.
Don't be ridiculous. We need calm and to reassure the markets. Firing the chairman isn't exactly going to send that message is it. Carney is doing fine, we priced in £50-75bn in QE and a rate cut to 0.25%, it looks like this is what he is going to do. Carney is just saying what we're all thinking, if we leave the single market the economic pain is going to take years of hard labour to clear. We can't just overnight leave a free trading area worth £280bn in exports with no plan as to how to keep preferential access to that market and how to replace any lost income by opening up new markets. Both situations can be resolved, but right now the uncertainty is hurting in certain sectors. I think it will be balanced out by weak sterling for a lot of businesses, but then again, I don't have the Bank's forecasting tools to hand.
In which case both the current chancellor (Osborne) and his successor need to take Carney aside and give him the hair drier treatment about the tone of his messaging. He's sounding like a sore loser and is talking us down. It's NOT helping.
So it looks like May. I'm entirely happy with that as long as she sees Brexit through properly. I hope she clears house a bit on the ministerial appointments side, starting with Osborne who is a malign figure and creator of far too much political intrigue when we need simple getting on with things. I'd very much like her to find a role for Daniel Hannan.
Hannan should be on the Brexit negotiating team, he's literally written books on the subject and knows Brussles inside out. I'm sure there will be a safe seat waiting for him in 2020 if not before. Witney maybe?
One point Mr Hannan makes about Brexit is that its a process, not a one off.
The UK-EU agreement will be important, but its not the end of the journey.
I do think we mustn't underestimate the complications of the first part of the electorate - Tory MPs. It seems certain that May get's to the last two, but it could be almost any of the other 4 who join her.
Could enough remainer MPs deliberately split from Theresa when secretly voting, in order to vote for remainer Crabb, in order to keep Gove/Leadsom off the ballot? it could tempt the EEA brexiteer MPs (BrexitEEAs?) who may be worried about Gove's claims to quit the single market?
Brexit means brexit, but if it's a May Crabb final we have more chance of an EEA / EU-lite deal. Leadsom and Gove have both spoken more about cutting FoM, so may be more of a threat to the single market
Mr. Jessop, such things are often seen in the light of when preceded and succeeded. Hence, Tiberius gets less of a bad rap than he deserves because Caligula was off his bloody head.
Khan's performance will provide a reference point for Boris.
Mrs J is rather Borisphobic, and she asked me a question this morning: could I name successes Boris had during his eight years as MoL?
Off the top of my head I came up with Boris Bikes, which is quite possibly a Livingstone policy, and Crossrail (debatable; construction started under Boris, but planning for decades before).
What else? It's early days, but how will the history of Boris's mayoralty be written?
On the bright side, and against the direst of predictions, London didn't fall into the Thames?
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
The markets and the pound are up because Carney hinted at a rate cut. (Presumably from 0.5% to actually 0%). Fair dinkum. I think Carney has not acted well in the Brexit drama. His talk yesterday of national post traumatic stress disorder was, well PTSDish itself. Central bankers everywhere are a large part of why the world is as fucked up as it is. They lead on moral hazard where others fear to tread. ZIRP gives a sugar rush now but fundamentally undermines the basis of a market economy - that savers get a return and will invest. I hope May's new chancellor replaces him.
I wasn't impressed by his tone either. He needs replacing.
Don't be ridiculous. We need calm and to reassure the markets. Firing the chairman isn't exactly going to send that message is it. Carney is doing fine, we priced in £50-75bn in QE and a rate cut to 0.25%, it looks like this is what he is going to do. Carney is just saying what we're all thinking, if we leave the single market the economic pain is going to take years of hard labour to clear. We can't just overnight leave a free trading area worth £280bn in exports with no plan as to how to keep preferential access to that market and how to replace any lost income by opening up new markets. Both situations can be resolved, but right now the uncertainty is hurting in certain sectors. I think it will be balanced out by weak sterling for a lot of businesses, but then again, I don't have the Bank's forecasting tools to hand.
In which case both the current chancellor (Osborne) and his successor need to take Carney aside and give him the hair drier treatment about the tone of his messaging. He's sounding like a sore loser and is talking us down. It's NOT helping.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead. I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???
I understand Tory recruiting is going along quite nicely.
And the SNP will still have a block of 50 or so seats after the next election. The Labour Leader peering out of Salmonds pocket still stands. Even more so if it is Corbyn...
I think the Conservatives might lose a couple of seats in the Stockbroker Belt to the Lib Dems, but I think they'll hang on to all their gains in the South West, especially as I could see a lot of UKIP voters switching to them when they deliver Brexit.
South West was very evenly split on Brexit and I do believe some people are having buyers' remorse. Let's wait and see what happens to the economy and what sort of deal we get. Theresa May might be more amenable to voters in the south west than the Bullingdon set but could the Lib Dems hit the Tories in the stockbroker belt? Unlikely I'd say. They couldn't do it under Clegg when they had the support of The Financial Times and The Economist so I'd struggle to see them doing it now under Farron. I think the rich outside London will always forgive the Tories.
Mrs J is rather Borisphobic, and she asked me a question this morning: could I name successes Boris had during his eight years as MoL?
Off the top of my head I came up with Boris Bikes, which is quite possibly a Livingstone policy, and Crossrail (debatable; construction started under Boris, but planning for decades before).
What else? It's early days, but how will the history of Boris's mayoralty be written?
You didn’t listen to Boris’ speech then. Longer life expectancy in the capital was one, falling crime rates were another.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?
I can't think of any, while their party was in government. Plenty from opposition of course, Cameron and Blair being the two most recent examples.
Leadsom does have the feel of the dark horse he steals away with the party membership at the end, but, I think this time there is a general feeling that the country needs a firm grip and experience - I have no idea, but suspect (hope) that Tory members will feel the same way.
Of course, there is speculation that there wont be a ballot as May will sweep up all the MPs in their ballots.
I think the Party will consider her professional experience prior to Parliament sufficient to match May's political experience.
Leadsom worked in the financial sector for BZW, Barclays Bank – where she was Financial Institutions Director from 1993 to 1997 – and was Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management (DPFM) between 1997 and 1999. She was Head of Corporate Governance and Senior Investment Officer at Invesco Perpetual from 1999 to 2009.[1][7]
Pah! I have a much more impressive CV than that. At the risk of going all SeanT like, I have worked in government, been part of British delegations to Brussels, my first financial services case was the Guinness scandal, the Adoboli case was one of mine, I've worked at two top tier law firms specialising in financial services litigation, have worked at a hedge fund, two US and a Swiss bank, done criminal legal aid and have written and lectured on law and financial matters and have set up my own team of top notch investigators from a standing start.
If that's all it takes,I should be PM and I dare say that there are plenty of other PB'ers with equally if not more impressive experience. But being PM, especially at a time like this, requires perhaps other skills.......
I think there's 20 or 30 pb-ers who together could form an awesome task force, given the skills sets collected here.
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
I thought it was meant to be Right that did all the paternalism!
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
What is all this expert worship all of a sudden? We are a democracy, not an expertocracy, and I think Gove here made the common political mistake of putting a very, very good point very badly because it was more obvious to him than his audience. Would you be happy with the argument that Cameron must be a politics expert because he has a degree in it from Oxford and the rest of us haven't, so leave all the political decisions to him?
Probably everyone posting here is an expert in at least one subject - their job - to the extent that, say, they could appear as talking heads on a serious BBC programme about it without disgracing themselves. Most of those with PhDs can go further and claim to be the world's leading expert on one particular (very limited) subject. And all those experts will probably agree that being an expert doesn't entail either omniscience, or crystal ball ownership.
What the experts are doing - or at least should be doing - is predicting probable outcomes where there is a lot of uncertainty. These predictions can then inform the vote. They shouldn't - in their role as experts - tell people HOW to vote. If you ignore those predictions you are guided by wishful thinking instead - Brexit will lead to much less immigration; Brexit won't change our trade relations because Germany needs us more than we need them etc. There was a lot more of this wishful thinking on the Leave side than the Remain side, which is why Gove told voters to ignore the experts (and by implication) go with their wishful thinking instead.
FWIW I read the entrails of the poll a bit differently. Mostly FPT:
* Opinion is split between pre-2015 members (who are now marginally anti-Corbyn 51-46) and post-2015 members (who are heavily pro, 72-29). Note that there are now 60,000 further new members, whose views can't be accurately guessed but won't be in the poll. * McDonnell does quite well against the potential challengers, but loses narrowly to everyone except Jarvis. Corbyn has a roughly 10-point loyalty/personal bonus that McDonnell doesn't at present have. That could change, of course, but... * That makes a deal involving McDonnell or Lewis standing as the left candidate less likely IMO. Corbyn won't give up if he thinks it would damage the left cause. * There is massive disapproval of the Shadow Cabinet resignations from all parts of the party, 60-36 overall * Members are pessimistic about the next election with Corbyn (57-35) but also if Corbyn went (50-38 - as it's by unknown X, there are more undecideds).
Summary, trying not be influenced by my own views: Corbyn will stand and fight. It's not that he's enjoying it, but he thinks it's his duty. The ABCs have overplayed their hands with the mass resignations. However, they are not that far behind, and would have a chance if and only if one of them actually looked like a potential election-winner. Members won't vote to dump Corbyn in favour of someone who they think would lose anyway.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
It's crashing out of the ERM redux.
It led to a fall in sterling boosting against expectations investment and exports leading to a boost in economic growth. We are following the exact same trajectory at the moment.
Yet Carney is insistent that we will have a recession. All very odd.
I still get the feeling that few people have actually bothered to read the IFS report. Depending on the area of the economy, there are up to 13 models summarised, from the pessimistic to the wildly optimistic.
The NIESR versions are the most useful as they cover the scenarios we've been discussing here, like EEA and WTO (but including exotic variants like WTO with unilateral tariff reduction). One word of warning; the report uses the OBR forecast as the baseline, so when it gives negative numbers, that's often, but not always, relative to baseline rather than absolute.
If you're a Chicken Little type you can cherry pick Societe Generale. If you're a head-in-the-clouds type you can use 'Economists for Brexit'.
I've generally looked at NIESR for reasons mentioned above. The IMF report came out the week before the referendum, but was lost in the furore of poor Jo Cox's murder. That forecast a recession in 2017, with a drop in GDP of .8%. That's about a third as much as a 'normal' recession (e.g. the 80s and early 90s). The only comparable recession was 1961 with a drop of 1.1%.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
Anyone know why Gove is doing so badly on Betfair? Now 11.5.
He who wields the knife never gets to wear the crown. He's not a vote winner - either within the party or, more importantly, the country at large. He's an ideologue. Personally I agree with much of his ideology and, if we could guarantee Corbyn stayed forever, would like him to be PM because this country is badly in need of reform. But.....he's marmite, and clearly an evil plotting overlord with a furry white cat at home. I think May would be better for us for now.
Lord Macbeth Gove is finished and deservedly so. Leadsom has moved into a strong second favourite on all books and May notoriously hates him anyway. He will not even reach the second round which will be an appropriate fate for someone who first stabbed his best friend in the front and then Boris in the back - nor so much the Manchurian candidate as the Murdoch candidate.
If I were Gove I would consolidate my position with the Murdochs as his household may soon have to get by on one journalistic income!
Anyone know why Gove is doing so badly on Betfair? Now 11.5.
Maybe the same reason Brexit was long odds. People couldn't bear to face the inevitable.
God I hope I'm wrong. Being serious if you saw Chris Cook's piece on Newsnight yesterday it gave the impression of there being something a little sinister abut the Gove set.
Mrs J is rather Borisphobic, and she asked me a question this morning: could I name successes Boris had during his eight years as MoL?
Off the top of my head I came up with Boris Bikes, which is quite possibly a Livingstone policy, and Crossrail (debatable; construction started under Boris, but planning for decades before).
What else? It's early days, but how will the history of Boris's mayoralty be written?
You didn’t listen to Boris’ speech then. Longer life expectancy in the capital was one, falling crime rates were another.
The way I am at the moment, I could listen to a speech and forget I'd listened to it after five minutes.
They are a awful. Too long in the "thought bubbles" me thinks.
I think the unborn baby saying "I'm in" ,was good, the one that said don't leave it, lead it was crap because it does not resonate at all people don't feel like the E.U can be reformed.
The remain campaign was shit because the E.U is shit.
I was also left mulling over whether you CAN actually put the pin back in a grenade...?
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
Even though they have got much cheaper if paying dollars?
Mrs J is rather Borisphobic, and she asked me a question this morning: could I name successes Boris had during his eight years as MoL?
Off the top of my head I came up with Boris Bikes, which is quite possibly a Livingstone policy, and Crossrail (debatable; construction started under Boris, but planning for decades before).
What else? It's early days, but how will the history of Boris's mayoralty be written?
Removed Ken from London politics, entertained the Capital and proved the luvvies wrong.
FWIW I read the entrails of the poll a bit differently. Mostly FPT:
* Opinion is split between pre-2015 members (who are now marginally anti-Corbyn 51-46) and post-2015 members (who are heavily pro, 72-29). Note that there are now 60,000 further new members, whose views can't be accurately guessed but won't be in the poll. * McDonnell does quite well against the potential challengers, but loses narrowly to everyone except Jarvis. Corbyn has a roughly 10-point loyalty/personal bonus that McDonnell doesn't at present have. That could change, of course, but... * That makes a deal involving McDonnell or Lewis standing as the left candidate less likely IMO. Corbyn won't give up if he thinks it would damage the left cause. * There is massive disapproval of the Shadow Cabinet resignations from all parts of the party, 60-36 overall * Members are pessimistic about the next election with Corbyn (57-35) but also if Corbyn went (50-38 - as it's by unknown X, there are more undecideds).
Summary, trying not be influenced by my own views: Corbyn will stand and fight. It's not that he's enjoying it, but he thinks it's his duty. The ABCs have overplayed their hands with the mass resignations. However, they are not that far behind, and would have a chance if and only if one of them actually looked like a potential election-winner. Members won't vote to dump Corbyn in favour of someone who they think would lose anyway.
We need to face up to the situation we are in, the party has good potential leaders but no-one who looks like a "potential election winner" stands the remotest chance of winning a vote of the membership. Labour are in a far worse predicament than the GOP.
Shh, good news is banned after the people voted the "wrong" way last week. There's going to be a recession, remember? < / sarcasm >
It's looking backwards to those halcyon, sun-dappled days before June 23rd. European PMIs were also released today - they all look good (even Greece!) except for France, which was at 48.3.
We won't see any economic data worth a damn until September, imo.
They are a awful. Too long in the "thought bubbles" me thinks.
I think the unborn baby saying "I'm in" ,was good, the one that said don't leave it, lead it was crap because it does not resonate at all people don't feel like the E.U can be reformed.
The remain campaign was shit because the E.U is shit.
I was also left mulling over whether you CAN actually put the pin back in a grenade...?
Anyone know why Gove is doing so badly on Betfair? Now 11.5.
Maybe the same reason Brexit was long odds. People couldn't bear to face the inevitable.
God I hope I'm wrong. Being serious if you saw Chris Cook's piece on Newsnight yesterday it gave the impression of there being something a little sinister abut the Gove set.
A traitor to one king is a traitor to all.
Also people believed Gove when he said he didn't want to be / wouldn't make a good leader.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
I read in the Standard last night that a Singapore Bank had stopped lending for London property purchases, so for sure some are being cautious about getting involved. But if monetary policy around the world is loosened, won't it just spark off even more madness?
Genuine question: If Dacre doesn't like Boris at all, why has he reacted badly to Gove's morning of the long knife, and backed Theresa straight away so strongly?
Shh, good news is banned after the people voted the "wrong" way last week. There's going to be a recession, remember? < / sarcasm >
It's looking backwards to those halcyon, sun-dappled days before June 23rd. European PMIs were also released today - they all look good (even Greece!) except for France, which was at 48.3.
We won't see any economic data worth a damn until September, imo.
The data says it finishes on the 27th, so I'd be shocked if there wasn't some overlap/indication.
Miss Lass, hope you're right about Gove. Put a smidgen on him to be last in the first round of voting (21, now 17) on Ladbrokes.
I suspect Fox will pip him, but it's value, I think. Surprised Crabb's odds are so short, though.
If you don't like May, he's the only Remainer? I mentioned him months ago as a possible future Tory leader - and quietly pleased that he's popped up. I don't think he's a hope in Hell of course.
Mrs J is rather Borisphobic, and she asked me a question this morning: could I name successes Boris had during his eight years as MoL?
Off the top of my head I came up with Boris Bikes, which is quite possibly a Livingstone policy, and Crossrail (debatable; construction started under Boris, but planning for decades before).
What else? It's early days, but how will the history of Boris's mayoralty be written?
Lots of housebuilding, though that's probably coincidence rather than anything Boris actually did.
Shh, good news is banned after the people voted the "wrong" way last week. There's going to be a recession, remember? < / sarcasm >
I notice the other meme that the media like to talk about..."the vote wasn't necessary". Well it kinda of was, as given the number of people voted compared to say PCC elections or AV vote, more people turned out than a GE. It was clearly a hotbed issue that the public felt very strongly about.
Anyone know why Gove is doing so badly on Betfair? Now 11.5.
He who wields the knife never gets to wear the crown. He's not a vote winner - either within the party or, more importantly, the country at large. He's an ideologue. Personally I agree with much of his ideology and, if we could guarantee Corbyn stayed forever, would like him to be PM because this country is badly in need of reform. But.....he's marmite, and clearly an evil plotting overlord with a furry white cat at home. I think May would be better for us for now.
I agree with Patrick on this. I like Gove a lot and think he's right in many areas. But he should be nowhere near contact with the public.
Is Corbyn in deeper trouble with this revelation? "Yesterday, Momentum activist and Guardian journalist Marc Wadsworth made Jewish MP Ruth Smeeth burst into tears amid heckles that she was colluding with the right-wing press. Afterwards, in this extraordinary footage, Corbyn can be seen laughing and shaking hands with Wadsworth as he regales the leader how “I outed Smeeth, bloody talking to the Torygraph this morning.” More concerning, Corbyn tells Wadsworth “I sent you a text about it”. Corbyn clearly knows the activist and had prior communication with him…"
Guido has a storyline: "At 6 pm on Tuesday Boris met Andrea Leadsom for a ten minute one-on-one discussion in her office. He tried to convince her to join his ticket by offering her Business Secretary and an EU negotiating role. She rejected it out of hand, insisting she would only take Chancellor. At that point there was no intention whatsoever from Team Boris of offering the hitherto junior figure such a key role."
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
I read in the Standard last night that a Singapore Bank had stopped lending for London property purchases, so for sure some are being cautious about getting involved. But if monetary policy around the world is loosened, won't it just spark off even more madness?
Genuine question: If Dacre doesn't like Boris at all, why has he reacted badly to Gove's morning of the long knife, and backed Theresa straight away so strongly?
Mrs Gove's email? No one likes to discover someone else presuming to know their opinion?
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
Even though they have got much cheaper if paying dollars?
Shh, good news is banned after the people voted the "wrong" way last week. There's going to be a recession, remember? < / sarcasm >
It's looking backwards to those halcyon, sun-dappled days before June 23rd. European PMIs were also released today - they all look good (even Greece!) except for France, which was at 48.3.
We won't see any economic data worth a damn until September, imo.
The data says it finishes on the 27th, so I'd be shocked if there wasn't some overlap/indication.
Maybe I'm out of date, but when I was in business we generally did it via contract, based on one to three year terms. We weren't rocking up to the office and saying "Hmm, who shall we sell our shit to today?".
It's a complex, interconnected world. We'll see what happens when contracts come up for renewal, or new ITTs/RFPs are issued.
Is Corbyn in deeper trouble with this revelation? "Yesterday, Momentum activist and Guardian journalist Marc Wadsworth made Jewish MP Ruth Smeeth burst into tears amid heckles that she was colluding with the right-wing press. Afterwards, in this extraordinary footage, Corbyn can be seen laughing and shaking hands with Wadsworth as he regales the leader how “I outed Smeeth, bloody talking to the Torygraph this morning.” More concerning, Corbyn tells Wadsworth “I sent you a text about it”. Corbyn clearly knows the activist and had prior communication with him…"
Is Corbyn in deeper trouble with this revelation? "Yesterday, Momentum activist and Guardian journalist Marc Wadsworth made Jewish MP Ruth Smeeth burst into tears amid heckles that she was colluding with the right-wing press. Afterwards, in this extraordinary footage, Corbyn can be seen laughing and shaking hands with Wadsworth as he regales the leader how “I outed Smeeth, bloody talking to the Torygraph this morning.” More concerning, Corbyn tells Wadsworth “I sent you a text about it”. Corbyn clearly knows the activist and had prior communication with him…"
Miss Plato, Crabb also, as of yesterday, was in second place as far as MPs' support went. The other three (May, of course, being well out in front) were at similar levels, roughly half Crabb's.
Genuine question: If Dacre doesn't like Boris at all, why has he reacted badly to Gove's morning of the long knife, and backed Theresa straight away so strongly?
Anyone know why Gove is doing so badly on Betfair? Now 11.5.
He who wields the knife never gets to wear the crown. He's not a vote winner - either within the party or, more importantly, the country at large. He's an ideologue. Personally I agree with much of his ideology and, if we could guarantee Corbyn stayed forever, would like him to be PM because this country is badly in need of reform. But.....he's marmite, and clearly an evil plotting overlord with a furry white cat at home. I think May would be better for us for now.
I agree with Patrick on this. I like Gove a lot and think he's right in many areas. But he should be nowhere near contact with the public.
Nick's comments tie on with what I hear down this way. The older ' members are far less pro Corbyn than those who joined over the last year. Myself, I feel I am between a rock and a hard place. I agree with much of Corbyns policies, but can't see him as a leader.I am really not sure what the result of any members vote would be, but any challenger has to have real credibility. I am not sure that person has emerged yet. Of course Chilcott next week could be a game changer. Perhaps that's what people are waiting for.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
I read in the Standard last night that a Singapore Bank had stopped lending for London property purchases, so for sure some are being cautious about getting involved. But if monetary policy around the world is loosened, won't it just spark off even more madness?
Prices might go up.
Or down.
I don't know. It just feels like there seems to be a bit of "f*** you" from people like Carney. I get that it's his job to do blue skies thinking and plan for all eventualities. But he, the MPC and Osborne have been complicit in pumping up an asset bubble for the last four years. It's as though they are determined not to let nature take its course.
Nick's comments tie on with what I hear down this way. The older ' members are far less pro Corbyn than those who joined over the last year. Myself, I feel I am between a rock and a hard place. I agree with much of Corbyns policies, but can't see him as a leader.I am really not sure what the result of any members vote would be, but any challenger has to have real credibility. I am not sure that person has emerged yet. Of course Chilcott next week could be a game changer. Perhaps that's what people are waiting for.
Seamus clearly is.
The problem large numbers of those who resigned aren't Blairites, nor probably were in Parliament when the Iraq vote was taken.
Maybe two candidates will drop out on Tuesday if they both do worse than expected. Then we'd get a final result on Thursday instead of having to wait another week.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn New Opinium poll: 7% of Leavers regret the way they voted, 3% of Remainers do. That would wipe out #Brexit's majority.
These are the same polls that didn't predict LEAVE would win?
Frankly I have no idea why these opinion pollsters are taken seriously anymore... They've had an AWFUL two years with the general election and then the referendum fiasco's.
So it looks like May. I'm entirely happy with that as long as she sees Brexit through properly. I hope she clears house a bit on the ministerial appointments side, starting with Osborne who is a malign figure and creator of far too much political intrigue when we need simple getting on with things. I'd very much like her to find a role for Daniel Hannan.
Hannan should be on the Brexit negotiating team, he's literally written books on the subject and knows Brussles inside out. I'm sure there will be a safe seat waiting for him in 2020 if not before. Witney maybe?
One point Mr Hannan makes about Brexit is that its a process, not a one off.
The UK-EU agreement will be important, but its not the end of the journey.
Absolutely, which is why people like Hannan need to be involved, along with others who understand what needs to happen and when. It's probably not an awful lot initially, and there's lots of pone trial to make the whole process much more difficult than it needs to be.
In parallel to the EU negotiations we also need to get other trade deals under discussion and encourage our major exporters to take advantage of the weakened pound. All the talking down of the economy needs stamping on.
We also need to be cunning and act as the French would do, ignoring any inconvenient EU rules from the moment we activate Article 50.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
I read in the Standard last night that a Singapore Bank had stopped lending for London property purchases, so for sure some are being cautious about getting involved. But if monetary policy around the world is loosened, won't it just spark off even more madness?
Prices might go up.
Or down.
I don't know. It just feels like there seems to be a bit of "f*** you" from people like Carney. I get that it's his job to do blue skies thinking and plan for all eventualities. But he, the MPC and Osborne have been complicit in pumping up an asset bubble for the last four years. It's as though they are determined not to let nature take its course.
Carney will stick to his remit. Remember there is no inflation at the moment on the BoE measure. If inflation comes along then he has a decision to make wrt interest rates. London property really isn't much to do with him. His job is to keep the economy running as best he can with his monetary policy tools.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn New Opinium poll: 7% of Leavers regret the way they voted, 3% of Remainers do. That would wipe out #Brexit's majority.
These are the same polls that didn't predict LEAVE would win?
Frankly I have no idea why these opinion pollsters are taken seriously anymore... They've had an AWFUL two years with the general election and then the referendum fiasco's.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
I read in the Standard last night that a Singapore Bank had stopped lending for London property purchases, so for sure some are being cautious about getting involved. But if monetary policy around the world is loosened, won't it just spark off even more madness?
Prices might go up.
Or down.
I don't know. It just feels like there seems to be a bit of "f*** you" from people like Carney. I get that it's his job to do blue skies thinking and plan for all eventualities. But he, the MPC and Osborne have been complicit in pumping up an asset bubble for the last four years. It's as though they are determined not to let nature take its course.
Carney will stick to his remit. Remember there is no inflation at the moment on the BoE measure. If inflation comes along then he has a decision to make wrt interest rates. London property really isn't much to do with him. His job is to keep the economy running as best he can with his monetary policy tools.
That's the crux of the matter. CPI doesn't account for house price inflation (or deflation for that matter). If they think the people of this country are best served by pumping up an asset bubble then so be it. I suppose I was naïve to think that they'd actually allow property prices to fall.
Nick's comments tie on with what I hear down this way. The older ' members are far less pro Corbyn than those who joined over the last year. Myself, I feel I am between a rock and a hard place. I agree with much of Corbyns policies, but can't see him as a leader.I am really not sure what the result of any members vote would be, but any challenger has to have real credibility. I am not sure that person has emerged yet. Of course Chilcott next week could be a game changer. Perhaps that's what people are waiting for.
Seamus clearly is.
The problem large numbers of those who resigned aren't Blairites, nor probably were in Parliament when the Iraq vote was taken.
Why on earth are they putting up A Eagle as a candidate. Seriously it suggests a serious lack of judgement - they know she's unacceptable to the Labour membership with her voting record. I think a coup could possibly work with the right horse - but what were they thinking with Eagle ?!
I would not be laying Tom Watson if he himself had gone for it.
So it looks like May. I'm entirely happy with that as long as she sees Brexit through properly. I hope she clears house a bit on the ministerial appointments side, starting with Osborne who is a malign figure and creator of far too much political intrigue when we need simple getting on with things. I'd very much like her to find a role for Daniel Hannan.
Hannan should be on the Brexit negotiating team, he's literally written books on the subject and knows Brussles inside out. I'm sure there will be a safe seat waiting for him in 2020 if not before. Witney maybe?
One point Mr Hannan makes about Brexit is that its a process, not a one off.
The UK-EU agreement will be important, but its not the end of the journey.
We also need to be cunning and act as the French would do, ignoring any inconvenient EU rules from the moment we activate Article 50.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn New Opinium poll: 7% of Leavers regret the way they voted, 3% of Remainers do. That would wipe out #Brexit's majority.
These are the same polls that didn't predict LEAVE would win?
Frankly I have no idea why these opinion pollsters are taken seriously anymore... They've had an AWFUL two years with the general election and then the referendum fiasco's.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
I read in the Standard last night that a Singapore Bank had stopped lending for London property purchases, so for sure some are being cautious about getting involved. But if monetary policy around the world is loosened, won't it just spark off even more madness?
Prices might go up.
Or down.
I don't know. It just feels like there seems to be a bit of "f*** you" from people like Carney. I get that it's his job to do blue skies thinking and plan for all eventualities. But he, the MPC and Osborne have been complicit in pumping up an asset bubble for the last four years. It's as though they are determined not to let nature take its course.
Carney will stick to his remit. Remember there is no inflation at the moment on the BoE measure. If inflation comes along then he has a decision to make wrt interest rates. London property really isn't much to do with him. His job is to keep the economy running as best he can with his monetary policy tools.
That's the crux of the matter. CPI doesn't account for house price inflation (or deflation for that matter). If they think the people of this country are best served by pumping up an asset bubble then so be it. I suppose I was naïve to think that they'd actually allow property prices to fall.
The Osborne boom is based on a massive housing bubble.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn New Opinium poll: 7% of Leavers regret the way they voted, 3% of Remainers do. That would wipe out #Brexit's majority.
These are the same polls that didn't predict LEAVE would win?
Frankly I have no idea why these opinion pollsters are taken seriously anymore... They've had an AWFUL two years with the general election and then the referendum fiasco's.
Me neither. TBH, after the adjustments during the referendum campaign that almost all pushed the Leave vote down - it looks like being unwilling to accept the evidence before their own eyes. What were the reasons for repeatedly discounting Leave? @Chestnut kept pointing it out.
We also saw loads of confirmation bias here re phone polls must be better, from polling analysts who were almost all Remainers et al. It creates a false narrative - just as it did re LDs being impervious.
McDonnell speaking now; says he wants to be absolutely clear on immigration. After the UK leaves the EU “free movement of labour and people will come to an end.”
Anti-immigration feeling stemmed from austerity and economic uncertainty, he says, which Labour also needs to confront.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn New Opinium poll: 7% of Leavers regret the way they voted, 3% of Remainers do. That would wipe out #Brexit's majority.
These are the same polls that didn't predict LEAVE would win?
Frankly I have no idea why these opinion pollsters are taken seriously anymore... They've had an AWFUL two years with the general election and then the referendum fiasco's.
Opinion polls tell us something (Always) but this doesn't point to a "remain" win in a 2nd referendum by a long long stretch.
Miss Plato, Crabb also, as of yesterday, was in second place as far as MPs' support went. The other three (May, of course, being well out in front) were at similar levels, roughly half Crabb's.
a chap on radio 4 last night, from a group I think called something like campaign for conservative democracy, was complaining that it would be a stitch up by the MPs and only may and crabb would end up on the ticket for the membership to vote for.
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.
And, having wondered, after about 5 seconds they'll realise that house prices aren't the only, or even the main, factor which the MPC took into account.
Hmmm. I really don't know what to make of this. If Carney and Osborne had said before the referendum that if we vote to Remain then they would have a real good go at sorting out the bonkers house price inflation (i.e. start putting up interest rates), then I might have considered voting for it.
House prices will fall now anyway as foreign investors hold back for a while.
I read in the Standard last night that a Singapore Bank had stopped lending for London property purchases, so for sure some are being cautious about getting involved. But if monetary policy around the world is loosened, won't it just spark off even more madness?
Prices might go up.
Or down.
I don't know. It just feels like there seems to be a bit of "f*** you" from people like Carney. I get that it's his job to do blue skies thinking and plan for all eventualities. But he, the MPC and Osborne have been complicit in pumping up an asset bubble for the last four years. It's as though they are determined not to let nature take its course.
Carney will stick to his remit. Remember there is no inflation at the moment on the BoE measure. If inflation comes along then he has a decision to make wrt interest rates. London property really isn't much to do with him. His job is to keep the economy running as best he can with his monetary policy tools.
That's the crux of the matter. CPI doesn't account for house price inflation (or deflation for that matter). If they think the people of this country are best served by pumping up an asset bubble then so be it. I suppose I was naïve to think that they'd actually allow property prices to fall.
The Osborne boom is based on a massive housing bubble.
It simply must pop at some point, but we might all be dead by then
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn New Opinium poll: 7% of Leavers regret the way they voted, 3% of Remainers do. That would wipe out #Brexit's majority.
These are the same polls that didn't predict LEAVE would win?
Frankly I have no idea why these opinion pollsters are taken seriously anymore... They've had an AWFUL two years with the general election and then the referendum fiasco's.
Opinium correctly forecast a Leave victory
Yes, but YouGov conducted the remorse poll. Until the pollsters find a way of filtering lefty twatters who game the polls they aren't going to be worth anything.
McDonnell speaking now; says he wants to be absolutely clear on immigration. After the UK leaves the EU “free movement of labour and people will come to an end.”
Anti-immigration feeling stemmed from austerity and economic uncertainty, he says, which Labour also needs to confront.
Comments
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/6f0f6957993c482997cc6370a2dea31d
"Yesterday, Momentum activist and Guardian journalist Marc Wadsworth made Jewish MP Ruth Smeeth burst into tears amid heckles that she was colluding with the right-wing press. Afterwards, in this extraordinary footage, Corbyn can be seen laughing and shaking hands with Wadsworth as he regales the leader how “I outed Smeeth, bloody talking to the Torygraph this morning.” More concerning, Corbyn tells Wadsworth “I sent you a text about it”. Corbyn clearly knows the activist and had prior communication with him…"
http://order-order.com/2016/07/01/corbyn-laughs-jokes-smeeth-heckler/
Boris a pawn of Gove's game all the while being played by George !
If that's all it takes,I should be PM and I dare say that there are plenty of other PB'ers with equally if not more impressive experience. But being PM, especially at a time like this, requires perhaps other skills.......
Off the top of my head I came up with Boris Bikes, which is quite possibly a Livingstone policy, and Crossrail (debatable; construction started under Boris, but planning for decades before).
What else? It's early days, but how will the history of Boris's mayoralty be written?
Watching the whole referendum and Tory leadership scenario play out I honestly cannot see this country making any major political decision in the near future that is not acceptable to Murdoch /Dacre etc. I think we are heading to 50% type GE turnouts like the US. I have never missed voting but wouldn't waste the energy of walking to he polling station if there was a GE next month, to be honest I wouldn't even register to vote other than it being a legal requirement
I know the Tory PBers will all howl sour grapes and worse with some justification but we are all entitled to our opinions, the referendum was a momentous decision and for what it's worth we now live in Daily Mail Britain and it's going to be like that for a very long time.
The remain campaign was shit because the E.U is shit.
The UK-EU agreement will be important, but its not the end of the journey.
Brexit means brexit, but if it's a May Crabb final we have more chance of an EEA / EU-lite deal. Leadsom and Gove have both spoken more about cutting FoM, so may be more of a threat to the single market
Khan's performance will provide a reference point for Boris.
Anyone know why Gove is doing so badly on Betfair? Now 11.5.
Whether it would ever get any work done....
< / sarcasm >
Before the MPs vote on tuesday no-one really knows how that contest is going.
* Opinion is split between pre-2015 members (who are now marginally anti-Corbyn 51-46) and post-2015 members (who are heavily pro, 72-29). Note that there are now 60,000 further new members, whose views can't be accurately guessed but won't be in the poll.
* McDonnell does quite well against the potential challengers, but loses narrowly to everyone except Jarvis. Corbyn has a roughly 10-point loyalty/personal bonus that McDonnell doesn't at present have. That could change, of course, but...
* That makes a deal involving McDonnell or Lewis standing as the left candidate less likely IMO. Corbyn won't give up if he thinks it would damage the left cause.
* There is massive disapproval of the Shadow Cabinet resignations from all parts of the party, 60-36 overall
* Members are pessimistic about the next election with Corbyn (57-35) but also if Corbyn went (50-38 - as it's by unknown X, there are more undecideds).
Summary, trying not be influenced by my own views: Corbyn will stand and fight. It's not that he's enjoying it, but he thinks it's his duty. The ABCs have overplayed their hands with the mass resignations. However, they are not that far behind, and would have a chance if and only if one of them actually looked like a potential election-winner. Members won't vote to dump Corbyn in favour of someone who they think would lose anyway.
The NIESR versions are the most useful as they cover the scenarios we've been discussing here, like EEA and WTO (but including exotic variants like WTO with unilateral tariff reduction). One word of warning; the report uses the OBR forecast as the baseline, so when it gives negative numbers, that's often, but not always, relative to baseline rather than absolute.
If you're a Chicken Little type you can cherry pick Societe Generale. If you're a head-in-the-clouds type you can use 'Economists for Brexit'.
I've generally looked at NIESR for reasons mentioned above. The IMF report came out the week before the referendum, but was lost in the furore of poor Jo Cox's murder. That forecast a recession in 2017, with a drop in GDP of .8%. That's about a third as much as a 'normal' recession (e.g. the 80s and early 90s). The only comparable recession was 1961 with a drop of 1.1%.
He's not a vote winner - either within the party or, more importantly, the country at large. He's an ideologue. Personally I agree with much of his ideology and, if we could guarantee Corbyn stayed forever, would like him to be PM because this country is badly in need of reform. But.....he's marmite, and clearly an evil plotting overlord with a furry white cat at home.
I think May would be better for us for now.
If I were Gove I would consolidate my position with the Murdochs as his household may soon have to get by on one journalistic income!
God I hope I'm wrong. Being serious if you saw Chris Cook's piece on Newsnight yesterday it gave the impression of there being something a little sinister abut the Gove set.
Sometimes this is a distinct advantage.
I suspect Fox will pip him, but it's value, I think. Surprised Crabb's odds are so short, though.
We won't see any economic data worth a damn until September, imo.
'Yet Carney is insistent that we will have a recession. All very odd.'
Yes Carney really going out of his way to talk the economy and country down.
Also people believed Gove when he said he didn't want to be / wouldn't make a good leader.
New Opinium poll: 7% of Leavers regret the way they voted, 3% of Remainers do. That would wipe out #Brexit's majority.
"At 6 pm on Tuesday Boris met Andrea Leadsom for a ten minute one-on-one discussion in her office. He tried to convince her to join his ticket by offering her Business Secretary and an EU negotiating role. She rejected it out of hand, insisting she would only take Chancellor. At that point there was no intention whatsoever from Team Boris of offering the hitherto junior figure such a key role."
http://order-order.com/2016/07/01/blundering-boris-botched-andrea-offers/
Or down.
It's a complex, interconnected world. We'll see what happens when contracts come up for renewal, or new ITTs/RFPs are issued.
Of course Chilcott next week could be a game changer. Perhaps that's what people are waiting for.
The problem large numbers of those who resigned aren't Blairites, nor probably were in Parliament when the Iraq vote was taken.
YES WE MAY
New Opinium poll: 7% of Leavers regret the way they voted, 3% of Remainers do. That would wipe out #Brexit's majority.
Shy Leavers-who-would-still-Leave......
Frankly I have no idea why these opinion pollsters are taken seriously anymore... They've had an AWFUL two years with the general election and then the referendum fiasco's.
In parallel to the EU negotiations we also need to get other trade deals under discussion and encourage our major exporters to take advantage of the weakened pound. All the talking down of the economy needs stamping on.
We also need to be cunning and act as the French would do, ignoring any inconvenient EU rules from the moment we activate Article 50.
I would not be laying Tom Watson if he himself had gone for it.
We also saw loads of confirmation bias here re phone polls must be better, from polling analysts who were almost all Remainers et al. It creates a false narrative - just as it did re LDs being impervious.
Anti-immigration feeling stemmed from austerity and economic uncertainty, he says, which Labour also needs to confront.
Quote from the Guardian’s “instant” site