Not sure why anybody would expect Ukip to do well right now, the party is skint, rudderless and devoid of ideas beyond the EU.
If you were a bright young SPAD wannabe, looking to get on in politics, would you even give UKIP a moments thought in your career path? They still strike me as a party that folks end up at after serious disillusionment with another party, rather than as a go-to party of choice. That in itself means they won't attract these bright young things who bring energy and ideas.
Would you care to name any of these bright young things? I don't see any.
Re YouGov, worth noting that the figures relate to Labour *members*. In a leadership election, the three-quidders would still presumably break heavily for Corbyn and bolster his position. Indeed, his 50% with members in the head-to-head with Eagle is almost exactly the share he won in the actual election last year.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
It's unbelievable the economic illiteracy that pervades Brexit. The 2008 crash triggered off stock market volatility. Before the bank bailouts, when the UK economy was on the verge of collapsing, the stock market was still going up and down.
I think I am going to conjure up another word for the ideologues, followers of Brexit or Corbyn....BrexCorbs....dimwitted, nihilistic, demagoguery, idiots...people who refuse to follow the basic facts, and believe in their ridiculous ideology.
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
They asked me I thought it was a bit odd. The filter question at the beginning asked if I'd ever been a member of X Party - I answered honestly and said Tory and Labour. I wouldn't put too much store in this poll unless then removed responses like mine.
You were a £3 member last year, rather than a full member? Trying to understand how representative the poll is, or if it's little more than a voodoo poll because of sampling errors.
Yup. Labour don't need any help to make a complete pigs ear of it this time. How they managed to get all over the news re their anti-Semitism event is really quite incredible. I'm still gaping.
Housing in NZ is expensive, particularly around Auckland. In NZ money, of course. Having said that a much younger cousin asked my advice about emigrating there 12 or so years ago. I advised to go, he did and he’s never looked back. I wisj I’d gone 60 years ago!
But I know somebody who emigrated there but was back a year later. He was bored out of his mind, despite being an outdoorsy person. And don't forget that there are more young Kiwis out of NZ than in it, or nearly so. Each to his own.
Personally if I emigrated, it would be somewhere English-speaking and wealthy, with better weather. Which basically means Sydney or California.
A few years ago my wife was in California.
There was a typically California lady (mid 30s, well maintained, clearly wealthy) standing behind her in the queue. On hearing my wife lived in London she expressed how impressed she was. Why?
"Well, I couldn't live anywhere they didn't speak English"
(but you are right, SoCal is a wonderful place. Far nicer than Georgia )
The left need to move on and run Clive Lewis. WTF are they thinking?
Two thoughts:
(1) Why would they? There is no mechanism - even without members support - that can force Corbyn to step down. I suppose the NEC could expel him from the party, but that would seem extreme. If there is a chance he/the left would lose, why would he go?
(2) The 90/10 split of Remain voters looks fishy. I'd thought the Labour *voters* were close to 60/40. Now that could be (a) false recall (b) members are not representative of voters or (c) YouGov has an unbalanced sample. In any event you shouldn't just take at face value
Very likely (b), mostly. The split of Labour MPs would be even more one-sided, wouldn't it?
I think the 90/10 split in the membership seems too low. I couldn't think of a single member who is a Brexiter.....oh, Jeremy Corbyn. Forgot
As an aside, there're going to be future issues with Tesla (and other manufacturers) having first dibs on the data from cars when there are crashes.
Very interesting. It was obviously always going to happen, and the key will be how liability works out with Tesla and the various insurance companies involved - especially in the litigation happy culture of the US.
In my mind a semi-autonomous car is the worst of all worlds, allowing the driver to distract himself while still requiring his attention at a second's notice. There's lots of research going on in aviation now regarding this "automation dependency" leading to a lack of basic skills on the day they're suddenly required. See Air France 447 and Air Asia 8501 for details. It's actually worse in a car, because the time between the autopilot saying "you have control" and the accident may only be a second or two, whereas at 40,000' it's usually at least a couple of minutes.
I'll get an autonomous car when it can drop me at the office door then go and park itself, before being called to pick me up from the pub after dinner and drinks.
That's a fair summary of my views.
Edge and corner cases will abound, especially as the tech is not AI-complete.
I'd also be concerned that much of this tech is being developed in the US, where driving conditions and roads are quite different.
Yes, as you know it takes 90% of the effort in software to do the last 10% of the job - that 10% being all the corner and edge cases, eventualities and failures.
Good point about the US development, they'll need more training on roundabouts and I hope they've not hard coded 'drive on the right' anywhere!
Those of us who interact with the electorate - councillors, activists, organisers - know we can't win an election with Corbyn as leader. As a Corbyn supporter last year I've been persuaded otherwise by the continued incompetence of the operation and the "I'm a labour supporter but can't vote for him" message on the doorstep. Doesn't appear to affect the how people vote in council elections but I would take no guidance about a GE from any council by elections.
Those members who don't interact with the public (and generally have never been seen) tell us that Corbyn is The Messiah and if it wasn't for us Blairite [insets chosen expletive] and their running dog cowards then we'd win the election with him easily.
I am happy that as a CLP we will have a General Election operation ready for November. May might say she doesn't want one, but if the Tories couldn't get anything of substance through before they knifed each other (and 2 months of violent stabbings still to go) then they'll have even less success passing massive divisive issues like Brexit.
I would like to see Corbyn go the same way he got in.
Without being voted out by the membership there will always be a feeling of betrayal or stab in the back.
If the membership re-elects Corbyn then it is the end of Labour as a potential alternative.government. We would have a defacto one party state, albeit one party with its own internal opposition.
And at a time when the Tories are hugely vulnerable. The next Chancellor will be raising taxes and/or making even deeper spending cuts; while the Brexit deal is unlikely to bring immigration down in any significant way. What Tory Leavers promised voters is not going to happen. And Tory Leavers are likely to be a majority in May's cabinet. Can you imagine what a credible opposition could do with a Leave-dominated Treasury team, or defence team, or Home Office, or MoD? It would be open goal after open goal. Instead, Corbyn will give them a free pass and the green light to agree a Brexit deal that harms millions of ordinary people.
I couldn't agree more. The future looks bleak.
If I were younger, I would emigrate, but at my age I just have to put up with it as best that I can.
Oh cheer up. We've seen the last (for a while at least) of the posh boy PMs and are heading for a sensible vicar's daughter - who won't stand any nonsense - ask the Police.....she's also been swift at dumping some baggage - pulling out of the EHCR for example....a year from now we could be looking back on this as a blessing in disguise....
Next year is when the Brexit-inspired cuts will kick in.
You write that as though 'living within our means' is a bad thing - and May junked the 'balance the books by 2020' yesterday as well.....
I know that big public spending cuts cause immense harm to people who rely on public services. The fact that the 2020 target has been dumped so readily shows that it was always an artificial target and one that did not have to be imposed.
However, the big point here is that we have made our means smaller by voting Leave. the Tory Leavers promised no tax rises and extra public spending. We will get the direct opposite. Except pensioners, of course.
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
If there is an election it's very tempting to pay £3 and vote for the other candidate if it's someone who could pass for sane.
That let's out Clive 'back end of a goat' Lewis, but I'd vote for Owen Smith. Even though I think he's a dud, he's less of a dud than the Jezziah.
Now, more than any other time that I can remember, the country needs an opposition. People who pay £3 to vote for Corbyn in order to scupper Labour are playing pathetic party politics precisly when the government should be subjected to the most intense scrutiny, as it negotiates a deal that will shape our future and even whether the UK will continue to exist. On the other hand, paying £3 to vote against Corbyn would be the act of a patriot. I would urge as many people as possible to do it. :-)
Disagree. Keeping Corbyn in place destroys the Labour Party.
Longer term I think Britain would be healthier if it had a sane left party without the institutional links with the unions (they are legitimate interests, like many other organisations, but outrageous they should own and control one of the major political parties).
Blow up Labour and there is a change that LD/SDP2 could become the main party of opposition.
Of course you disagree, you are a Tory. But the next few years are pivotal ones for the UK. Indeed, in five years there's a strong chance the UK won't exist. Leaving it all to the Tories, without subjecting them to the detailed scrutiny a credible opposition can provide, is a surefire way to get a poor outcome. That won't affect the establishment, but it will have an impact on millions of ordinary voters.
I'd say a "poorer" outcome, not necessarily a "poor" one. But scrutiny and challenge in itself is a good thing.
I'm not sure that the PLP currently has the capability to provide that scrutiny, regardless of their leadership.
But I'd like to see a strong, independent, coherent centre-left party on the opposition benches. I don't think that Labour can ever provide it: too much baggage
That let's out Clive 'back end of a goat' Lewis, but I'd vote for Owen Smith. Even though I think he's a dud, he's less of a dud than the Jezziah.
Now, more than any other time that I can remember, the country needs an opposition. People who pay £3 to vote for Corbyn in order to scupper Labour are playing pathetic party politics precisly when the government should be subjected to the most intense scrutiny, as it negotiates a deal that will shape our future and even whether the UK will continue to exist. On the other hand, paying £3 to vote against Corbyn would be the act of a patriot. I would urge as many people as possible to do it. :-)
Disagree. Keeping Corbyn in place destroys the Labour Party.
Longer term I think Britain would be healthier if it had a sane left party without the institutional links with the unions (they are legitimate interests, like many other organisations, but outrageous they should own and control one of the major political parties).
Blow up Labour and there is a change that LD/SDP2 could become the main party of opposition.
Of course you disagree, you are a Tory. But the next few years are pivotal ones for the UK. Indeed, in five years there's a strong chance the UK won't exist. Leaving it all to the Tories, without subjecting them to the detailed scrutiny a credible opposition can provide, is a surefire way to get a poor outcome. That won't affect the establishment, but it will have an impact on millions of ordinary voters.
The parallels with the 1980s are uncannily strong, ISTM. Back then we had an inward-facing Labour Party pursuing a left agenda whilst the Tories began to head rightward and started to get some of the big economic stuff wrong. The economic climate was worse than now, although Brexit may resolve that difference (and underneath our economy has remained precarious since 2008). Liberals were weak, nationalism on the rise (its first flush in the 1970s) and despite being unpopular the Tories won everything against a divided opposition.
When the new centre party was formed in changed everything and for a couple of years they swept all before them, until their bubble burst during the Falklands war.
The pre-conditions for something similar are almost all in place, except for amnesia about how it all turned out last time.
Not sure why anybody would expect Ukip to do well right now, the party is skint, rudderless and devoid of ideas beyond the EU.
If you were a bright young SPAD wannabe, looking to get on in politics, would you even give UKIP a moments thought in your career path? They still strike me as a party that folks end up at after serious disillusionment with another party, rather than as a go-to party of choice. That in itself means they won't attract these bright young things who bring energy and ideas.
Would you care to name any of these bright young things? I don't see any.
Still plenty in the Labour and Tory parties. Of course, it helps if your name is Benn or Straw or Kinnock if you want to shoot up the greasy pole, but there are many others at Conference, with that slightly crazed look in their eyes...
I get a sense that the more Corbyn digs in, the more ridiculous he looks. Just need him and McDonnell to make more slip ups. Plus they have no shadow cabinet - think we're still potentially waiting for the whips office to resign?
I would like to see Corbyn go the same way he got in.
Without being voted out by the membership there will always be a feeling of betrayal or stab in the back.
If the membership re-elects Corbyn then it is the end of Labour as a potential alternative.government. We would have a defacto one party state, albeit one party with its own internal opposition.
And at a time when the Tories are hugely vulnerable. The next Chancellor will be raising taxes and/or making even deeper spending cuts; while the Brexit deal is unlikely to bring immigration down in any significant way. What Tory Leavers promised voters is not going to happen. And Tory Leavers are likely to be a majority in May's cabinet. Can you imagine what a credible opposition could do with a Leave-dominated Treasury team, or defence team, or Home Office, or MoD? It would be open goal after open goal. Instead, Corbyn will give them a free pass and the green light to agree a Brexit deal that harms millions of ordinary people.
I couldn't agree more. The future looks bleak.
If I were younger, I would emigrate, but at my age I just have to put up with it as best that I can.
Nuts - come on back home to Georgia: the weather's better and it's much cheaper.
I have been canvassed for a job in NZ. Smallish city with good climate and the great outdoors on the doorstep.
A bit too much sunshine and optimism for me, you can only stand so much of that cr@p!
I like life with a bit of an edge and the possibility of misery. It is what keeps me here.
The SKY temperature map showed 45 degrees in Kuwait today. If you're looking for misery, Kuwait could be your spot!
The lack of culture would do my head in.. all those sheep and only NZ rugby to watch as a sport.. naah.. its on my bucket list to visit before I pop my clogs though
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Re YouGov, worth noting that the figures relate to Labour *members*. In a leadership election, the three-quidders would still presumably break heavily for Corbyn and bolster his position. Indeed, his 50% with members in the head-to-head with Eagle is almost exactly the share he won in the actual election last year.
Precisely my point. Corbyn is completely safe. People thinking otherwise have absolutely no idea about how the hard left operates or thinks.
I hope non-Corbyn supporters may agree that it is in the national interest that Jeremy Corbyn is Leader of the opposition when the Chilcot Report is published and discussed.Far better Corbyn than some Blair apologist intent on a partisan cover-up.The truth must out.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Not sure why anybody would expect Ukip to do well right now, the party is skint, rudderless and devoid of ideas beyond the EU.
If you were a bright young SPAD wannabe, looking to get on in politics, would you even give UKIP a moments thought in your career path? They still strike me as a party that folks end up at after serious disillusionment with another party, rather than as a go-to party of choice. That in itself means they won't attract these bright young things who bring energy and ideas.
Would you care to name any of these bright young things? I don't see any.
Still plenty in the Labour and Tory parties. Of course, it helps if your name is Benn or Straw or Kinnock if you want to shoot up the greasy pole, but there are many others at Conference, with that slightly crazed look in their eyes...
Plenty? Where are they then? Straw and Kinnock are young but don't appear bright, if they had another name they'd be stacking shelves (ie doing something worthwhile)
You're right in one aspect, disillusioned people vote Ukip, but these people outnumber the mythical bright young things substantially, last week proved that conclusively.
So all the Labour members voted remain. That's all a labour members except those members outside London, in the North east heartlands and errr ..... All of Wales except Cardiff which was a close vote anyway.
Someone is telling porkies.
(It was the Tories fault naturally....)
There is a big difference between a Labour member and a Labour voter. That's why Corbyn is in charge.
Labour 'members' are London centric......and at this rate, Labour 'voters' will end up that way too.....
I can't remember what proportion of Labour members are in London, but it was publicised during the last leadership election and I remember being surprised at how high it was.
IIRC there was a comment about it being 48% - but whether that was 'London', 'within the M25' or 'London plus commuterland' was a topic of some discussion.
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
It's unbelievable the economic illiteracy that pervades Brexit. The 2008 crash triggered off stock market volatility. Before the bank bailouts, when the UK economy was on the verge of collapsing, the stock market was still going up and down.
I think I am going to conjure up another word for the ideologues, followers of Brexit or Corbyn....BrexCorbs....dimwitted, nihilistic, demagoguery, idiots...people who refuse to follow the basic facts, and believe in their ridiculous ideology.
I was banned the other day for calling you a wanker, so I best not repeat it.
... and yet it's so much easier than addressing the real arguments isn't it?
The argument took place last week, perhaps you missed it, the result was announced on friday.
I hope non-Corbyn supporters may agree that it is in the national interest that Jeremy Corbyn is Leader of the opposition when the Chilcot Report is published and discussed.Far better Corbyn than some Blair apologist intent on a partisan cover-up.The truth must out.
I'd agree there. Chilcot isn't exactly Mr Totally Impartial either. Someone posted a week or ago an interesting snippet about his business dealings.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
It's unbelievable the economic illiteracy that pervades Brexit. The 2008 crash triggered off stock market volatility. Before the bank bailouts, when the UK economy was on the verge of collapsing, the stock market was still going up and down.
I think I am going to conjure up another word for the ideologues, followers of Brexit or Corbyn....BrexCorbs....dimwitted, nihilistic, demagoguery, idiots...people who refuse to follow the basic facts, and believe in their ridiculous ideology.
I was banned the other day for calling you a wanker, so I best not repeat it.
I think CorBrexer is a more fitting name in this post referendum landscape to the dimwitted ideologues who are more interested in an idea at the expense of all else.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Of course it is nonsense. Once across the channel why would migrants camp in Dover rather than head up the motorway to the great wen?
I'm also thinking of joining, I've voted Lab/SDP/LD and Green at various times but always felt the LDs are closest to my core values.
The Brexit vote, Farron's clear and honourable response and the steady march of Labour into the wilderness pretty much are doing it for me.
It should be on the first page you click on the first joining page, as it is for the other three parties mentioned.
I have an aversion from webpages and stores that make me enter personal information *before* I know vital information. I'm not the only one, and I guess would-be Lib Dems are likely to be similarly careful with their private information.
I have just entered some false information on the first page (sorry Lib Dems, but Test House does not exist in the city of Test), and the next page gives you a series of prices for different options. Those options should be on the first page.
It's also seems inconsistent: from the FAQ: "Membership costs £12 a year - but we hope that you might consider donating a little more. You can join online by paying with either a credit/debit card or direct debit, and will have the option to choose how much you pay there."
Yet the webform second page defaults to £25 with the text: "We recommend an annual subscription £70, but you can join for as little as £12 (£6 for students/claimants). It's your choice."
Messy. So very, very messy.
Indeed. It should be much clearer, and it would be such a simple change. Although Her Majesty just began the signup process for the Labour Party - you get to pick from various prices there too and the default is not the one you originally clicked on on the first page. The Greens seem to be more honourable in this regard.
[Edit - I did drop an email to the membership team on this; I've been a Lib Dem member for years and this sort of thing bothers me. And yours isn't the first comment along these lines I've seen]
I would like to see Corbyn go the same way he got in.
Without being voted out by the membership there will always be a feeling of betrayal or stab in the back.
If the membership re-elects Corbyn then it is the end of Labour as a potential alternative.government. We would have a defacto one party state, albeit one party with its own internal opposition.
And at a time when the Tories are hugely vulnerable. The next Chancellor will be raising taxes and/or making even deeper spending cuts; while the Brexit deal is unlikely to bring immigration down in any significant way. What Tory Leavers promised voters is not going to happen. And Tory Leavers are likely to be a majority in May's cabinet. Can you imagine what a credible opposition could do with a Leave-dominated Treasury team, or defence team, or Home Office, or MoD? It would be open goal after open goal. Instead, Corbyn will give them a free pass and the green light to agree a Brexit deal that harms millions of ordinary people.
I couldn't agree more. The future looks bleak.
If I were younger, I would emigrate, but at my age I just have to put up with it as best that I can.
Oh cheer up. We've seen the last (for a while at least) of the posh boy PMs and are heading for a sensible vicar's daughter - who won't stand any nonsense - ask the Police.....she's also been swift at dumping some baggage - pulling out of the EHCR for example....a year from now we could be looking back on this as a blessing in disguise....
Next year is when the Brexit-inspired cuts will kick in.
You write that as though 'living within our means' is a bad thing - and May junked the 'balance the books by 2020' yesterday as well.....
the Tory Leavers promised no tax rises and extra public spending. We will get the direct opposite. Except pensioners, of course.
Did Labour LEAVErs resile from such commitments?
I think the Pensioners day's of being protected are over - 'you voted for LEAVE, here are some of the consequences...'
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.
From Canterbury to Canterbury. It's tough down on the Canterbury Plain. The winters can be brutal. Nothing much between you and the South Pole.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
My son, based in East Asia, and selling to several countries there and Australasia, reports the same experience.
"As the tables show, over three quarters of Conservative-held constituencies voted to Leave, and seven in ten Labour-held constituencies. Although Labour as a party is very much more favourable to the EU than the Conservative party, the same cannot be said of the constituencies it holds."
I hope non-Corbyn supporters may agree that it is in the national interest that Jeremy Corbyn is Leader of the opposition when the Chilcot Report is published and discussed.Far better Corbyn than some Blair apologist intent on a partisan cover-up.The truth must out.
The idea that Corbyn is interested in the truth is a bit far-fetched. He'll use Chilcot to grandstand and he'll do it very badly.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.
My cousin has indeed posted to the effect that farmers have had problems, but I gather that the Govt is taking action to sort them out.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
Cameron had never been a cabinet member either. Oh, wait!
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
ConHome is not a good reflection of Tory Party members' views. Leadsom is too junior, too inexperienced and too hectoring. May will run on 'a safe pair of hands for difficult times' and that will be enough.
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.
I lived in Christchuch for a year. A lovely city before the earthquake.
NZ is not entirely how Brits and tourists see it. There is a surprising amount of gang violence and drug abuse, though as I worked in A and E there, you do see the seedier side of the place.
Anyone considering moving there should look past Lord of the Rings to Once Were Warriors:
Re YouGov, worth noting that the figures relate to Labour *members*. In a leadership election, the three-quidders would still presumably break heavily for Corbyn and bolster his position. Indeed, his 50% with members in the head-to-head with Eagle is almost exactly the share he won in the actual election last year.
The poll does include the three quidders.
See the final column, labelled 'Supporters who haven't joined'
Those of us who interact with the electorate - councillors, activists, organisers - know we can't win an election with Corbyn as leader. As a Corbyn supporter last year I've been persuaded otherwise by the continued incompetence of the operation and the "I'm a labour supporter but can't vote for him" message on the doorstep. Doesn't appear to affect the how people vote in council elections but I would take no guidance about a GE from any council by elections.
Those members who don't interact with the public (and generally have never been seen) tell us that Corbyn is The Messiah and if it wasn't for us Blairite [insets chosen expletive] and their running dog cowards then we'd win the election with him easily.
I am happy that as a CLP we will have a General Election operation ready for November. May might say she doesn't want one, but if the Tories couldn't get anything of substance through before they knifed each other (and 2 months of violent stabbings still to go) then they'll have even less success passing massive divisive issues like Brexit.
And this is Labour's big problem. London activists going door to door don't hear what you do. It's exactly like the referendum. Remain supporters in London looked at the posters, felt the engagement and imagined it was like that everywhere. Living in the Midlands I knew that was not the case.
If Labour does ever come to it senses, a new leader would do well to facilitate canvassing trips for London members to the Midlands and the North. A few weekends in the Black Country or West Yorkshire might open some eyes.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
There is a difference between accepting the result, in political/democratic terms, which most of us do, and falling for the nonsense that it won't make any difference to our economic future.
If the rest of the EU falls apart, then everyone is worse off, but in the very long run we might come out of it OK, at least relative to everyone else. If the EU hangs together, we face life in the cold, and it is way too early to judge how bad this might be.
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
They asked me I thought it was a bit odd. The filter question at the beginning asked if I'd ever been a member of X Party - I answered honestly and said Tory and Labour. I wouldn't put too much store in this poll unless then removed responses like mine.
You were a £3 member last year, rather than a full member? Trying to understand how representative the poll is, or if it's little more than a voodoo poll because of sampling errors.
Yup. Labour don't need any help to make a complete pigs ear of it this time. How they managed to get all over the news re their anti-Semitism event is really quite incredible. I'm still gaping.
It's been one long slow motion car crash since Miliband turned up with a three metre high slab of rock, the week before the election.
With all that's going on right now, there needs to be an opposition worthy of the name. The current Labour Party aren't close to being able to provide it.
And to think, all this nonsense started with Eric Joyce and the drunken fight in the Strangers' Bar. Without that, there would be no Corbyn.
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.
I lived in Christchuch for a year. A lovely city before the earthquake.
NZ is not entirely how Brits and tourists see it. There is a surprising amount of gang violence and drug abuse, though as I worked in A and E there, you do see the seedier side of the place.
Anyone considering moving there should look past Lord of the Rings to Once Were Warriors:
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
I'd be happy with Gove or Leadsom. I'm more in favour of Gove, and will be rooting for him during the MP ballots. However, I suspect that he's actually made a tactical decision to knock Boris out. He's unlikely to win, but his support will transfer to Leadsom.
It's brutal stuff - but Tory politics is a rough old game when there's a leadership election on.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
I get a sense that the more Corbyn digs in, the more ridiculous he looks. Just need him and McDonnell to make more slip ups. Plus they have no shadow cabinet - think we're still potentially waiting for the whips office to resign?
What I get no feel for is whether Labour is going through this horror show just to get rid of Corbyn - or whether this is about clearing out McDonnell and Abbot and the rest of Corbyn's coterie as well? Is the PLP trying to cleanse the Hard Left for all time, or would they really accpet going into an election with McDonnell and his Little Red Book?
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Of course it is nonsense. Once across the channel why would migrants camp in Dover rather than head up the motorway to the great wen?
My friend helps out on the camp....he says that there is huge amount of turnover in the people staying there, translating to the fact that many do manage to make the journey through.
Maybe, post Brexit, we'll need to set up a camp in Folkestone for all those English people who want to escape to Europe, the companies that will re-locate the many thousands of staff to common market countries, the finance industry, the tech entrepreneurs, the young professionals who want a much better future in Europe for themselves rather than Brexit Britain. We'll need some way of processing this exodus.
I hope non-Corbyn supporters may agree that it is in the national interest that Jeremy Corbyn is Leader of the opposition when the Chilcot Report is published and discussed.Far better Corbyn than some Blair apologist intent on a partisan cover-up.The truth must out.
The idea that Corbyn is interested in the truth is a bit far-fetched. He'll use Chilcot to grandstand and he'll do it very badly.
He'll certainly grandstand but on this one, I'm not sure he will do it badly. This is one issue where he will be largely in tune with the general electorate, as long as he doesn't wonder too far off topic, never mind the Labour membership. Grandstanding at Blair and Bush's expense is an easy hit and one that not only his supporters but many others will lap up. That's why Eagle, Watson and any other potential candidate are mad not to get nominations in before the debate: the momentum is running heavily against the leadership at the moment. Come next week, that tide may turn and waverers may well be prepared to give Corbyn 'more time', 'another look', 'one more chance' and any other excuse to delay action.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
ConHome is not a good reflection of Tory Party members' views. Leadsom is too junior, too inexperienced and too hectoring. May will run on 'a safe pair of hands for difficult times' and that will be enough.
You've been wrong before, David - we all have - and you may be wrong again, in this instance junior and inexperienced count for less than commitment to Brexit.
I'm also thinking of joining, I've voted Lab/SDP/LD and Green at various times but always felt the LDs are closest to my core values.
The Brexit vote, Farron's clear and honourable response and the steady march of Labour into the wilderness pretty much are doing it for me.
It should be on the first page you click on the first joining page, as it is for the other three parties mentioned.
I have an aversion from webpages and stores that make me enter personal information *before* I know vital information. I'm not the only one, and I guess would-be Lib Dems are likely to be similarly careful with their private information.
I have just entered some false information on the first page (sorry Lib Dems, but Test House does not exist in the city of Test), and the next page gives you a series of prices for different options. Those options should be on the first page.
It's also seems inconsistent: from the FAQ: "Membership costs £12 a year - but we hope that you might consider donating a little more. You can join online by paying with either a credit/debit card or direct debit, and will have the option to choose how much you pay there."
Yet the webform second page defaults to £25 with the text: "We recommend an annual subscription £70, but you can join for as little as £12 (£6 for students/claimants). It's your choice."
Messy. So very, very messy.
Indeed. It should be much clearer, and it would be such a simple change. Although Her Majesty just began the signup process for the Labour Party - you get to pick from various prices there too and the default is not the one you originally clicked on on the first page. The Greens seem to be more honourable in this regard.
[Edit - I did drop an email to the membership team on this; I've been a Lib Dem member for years and this sort of thing bothers me. And yours isn't the first comment along these lines I've seen]
Ah good. So it's not just me being a perniticky fool.
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
They asked me I thought it was a bit odd. The filter question at the beginning asked if I'd ever been a member of X Party - I answered honestly and said Tory and Labour. I wouldn't put too much store in this poll unless then removed responses like mine.
You were a £3 member last year, rather than a full member? Trying to understand how representative the poll is, or' if it's little more than a voodoo poll because of sampling errors.
Yup. Labour don't need any help to make a complete pigs ear of it this time. How they managed to get all over the news re their anti-Semitism event is really quite incredible. I'm still gaping.
It's been one long slow motion car crash since Miliband turned up with a three metre high slab of rock, the week before the election.
With all that's going on right now, there needs to be an opposition worthy of the name. The current Labour Party aren't close to being able to provide it.
And to think, all this nonsense started with Eric Joyce and the drunken fight in the Strangers' Bar. Without that, there would be no Corbyn.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.
I lived in Christchuch for a year. A lovely city before the earthquake.
NZ is not entirely how Brits and tourists see it. There is a surprising amount of gang violence and drug abuse, though as I worked in A and E there, you do see the seedier side of the place.
Anyone considering moving there should look past Lord of the Rings to Once Were Warriors:
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
They asked me I thought it was a bit odd. The filter question at the beginning asked if I'd ever been a member of X Party - I answered honestly and said Tory and Labour. I wouldn't put too much store in this poll unless then removed responses like mine.
You were a £3 member last year, rather than a full member? Trying to understand how representative the poll is, or' if it's little more than a voodoo poll because of sampling errors.
Yup. Labour don't need any help to make a complete pigs ear of it this time. How they managed to get all over the news re their anti-Semitism event is really quite incredible. I'm still gaping.
It's been one long slow motion car crash since Miliband turned up with a three metre high slab of rock, the week before the election.
With all that's going on right now, there needs to be an opposition worthy of the name. The current Labour Party aren't close to being able to provide it.
And to think, all this nonsense started with Eric Joyce and the drunken fight in the Strangers' Bar. Without that, there would be no Corbyn.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Early days, but a 10% drop in the value of the pound and the likelihood of negative interest rates is not particularly good news. It's also clear to me that if we want to protect our trade with Europe we're going to have to sign up to continued free movement.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
My son, based in East Asia, and selling to several countries there and Australasia, reports the same experience.
I'm genuinely curious. When they've stopped being astonished and laughing do any of them ask themselves whether what the EU is, how it has behaved and where it is going might - just possibly - have had something to do with the decision?
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.
I lived in Christchuch for a year. A lovely city before the earthquake.
NZ is not entirely how Brits and tourists see it. There is a surprising amount of gang violence and drug abuse, though as I worked in A and E there, you do see the seedier side of the place.
Anyone considering moving there should look past Lord of the Rings to Once Were Warriors:
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?
I get a sense that the more Corbyn digs in, the more ridiculous he looks. Just need him and McDonnell to make more slip ups. Plus they have no shadow cabinet - think we're still potentially waiting for the whips office to resign?
What I get no feel for is whether Labour is going through this horror show just to get rid of Corbyn - or whether this is about clearing out McDonnell and Abbot and the rest of Corbyn's coterie as well? Is the PLP trying to cleanse the Hard Left for all time, or would they really accpet going into an election with McDonnell and his Little Red Book?
If Corbyn goes the hard left is finished. All of it. That's why Corbyn is hanging on so ferociously. The stakes are very high.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Early days, but a 10% drop in the value of the pound and the likelihood of negative interest rates is not particularly good news. It's also clear to me that if we want to protect our trade with Europe we're going to have to sign up to continued free movement.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
I'd be happy with Gove or Leadsom. I'm more in favour of Gove, and will be rooting for him during the MP ballots. However, I suspect that he's actually made a tactical decision to knock Boris out. He's unlikely to win, but his support will transfer to Leadsom.
It's brutal stuff - but Tory politics is a rough old game when there's a leadership election on.
It's very interesting to watch the different ways the two parties have their disagreements. The Tories will have theirs in public then all rally behind the new leader - although with Boris gone it will most likely be quite a polite affair now. Labour meanwhile don't even have a mechanism by which they can assassinate an unwanted leader, except literally assassinating him! Assuming his health, JC will still be there in 2020 to fight the election for the hard Left.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
My son, based in East Asia, and selling to several countries there and Australasia, reports the same experience.
I'm genuinely curious. When they've stopped being astonished and laughing do any of them ask themselves whether what the EU is, how it has behaved and where it is going might - just possibly - have had something to do with the decision?
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
They asked me I thought it was a bit odd. The filter question at the beginning asked if I'd ever been a member of X Party - I answered honestly and said Tory and Labour. I wouldn't put too much store in this poll unless then removed responses like mine.
You were a £3 member last year, rather than a full member? Trying to understand how representative the poll is, or if it's little more than a voodoo poll because of sampling errors.
Yup. Labour don't need any help to make a complete pigs ear of it this time. How they managed to get all over the news re their anti-Semitism event is really quite incredible. I'm still gaping.
It's been one long slow motion car crash since Miliband turned up with a three metre high slab of rock, the week before the election.
With all that's going on right now, there needs to be an opposition worthy of the name. The current Labour Party aren't close to being able to provide it.
And to think, all this nonsense started with Eric Joyce and the drunken fight in the Strangers' Bar. Without that, there would be no Corbyn.
No, it really started when some sentimental MPs, who still had a smidgen of regret that they were no longer dyed in the wool socialists, lent Corbyn their votes so he could get on the ballot. It was that "aw, bless...." weakness that got Labour where it is today. Yes you, Margaret Beckett.
I'm not quite sure what the late Jo Cox was thinking either. She did express regret, but with Brexit having won, it looks like getting Corbyn elected will be her sole political legacy.
Those of us who interact with the electorate - councillors, activists, organisers - know we can't win an election with Corbyn as leader. As a Corbyn supporter last year I've been persuaded otherwise by the continued incompetence of the operation and the "I'm a labour supporter but can't vote for him" message on the doorstep. Doesn't appear to affect the how people vote in council elections but I would take no guidance about a GE from any council by elections.
Those members who don't interact with the public (and generally have never been seen) tell us that Corbyn is The Messiah and if it wasn't for us Blairite [insets chosen expletive] and their running dog cowards then we'd win the election with him easily.
I am happy that as a CLP we will have a General Election operation ready for November. May might say she doesn't want one, but if the Tories couldn't get anything of substance through before they knifed each other (and 2 months of violent stabbings still to go) then they'll have even less success passing massive divisive issues like Brexit.
If Labour does ever come to it senses, a new leader would do well to facilitate canvassing trips for London members to the Midlands and the North. A few weekends in the Black Country or West Yorkshire might open some eyes.
What, and go to a place where there's no artisan bakeries or tofu palours? Where there might be working class people, the great unwashed? URGH!
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
They asked me I thought it was a bit odd. The filter question at the beginning asked if I'd ever been a member of X Party - I answered honestly and said Tory and Labour. I wouldn't put too much store in this poll unless then removed responses like mine.
You were a £3 member last year, rather than a full member? Trying to understand how representative the poll is, or' if it's little more than a voodoo poll because of sampling errors.
Yup. Labour don't need any help to make a complete pigs ear of it this time. How they managed to get all over the news re their anti-Semitism event is really quite incredible. I'm still gaping.
It's been one long slow motion car crash since Miliband turned up with a three metre high slab of rock, the week before the election.
With all that's going on right now, there needs to be an opposition worthy of the name. The current Labour Party aren't close to being able to provide it.
And to think, all this nonsense started with Eric Joyce and the drunken fight in the Strangers' Bar. Without that, there would be no Corbyn.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
I have accepted it. As for self pity, far from it. We charge mainly in US$, so the pound's collapse has boosted our profitability.
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
They asked me I thought it was a bit odd. The filter question at the beginning asked if I'd ever been a member of X Party - I answered honestly and said Tory and Labour. I wouldn't put too much store in this poll unless then removed responses like mine.
You were a £3 member last year, rather than a full member? Trying to understand how representative the poll is, or' if it's little more than a voodoo poll because of sampling errors.
Yup. Labour don't need any help to make a complete pigs ear of it this time. How they managed to get all over the news re their anti-Semitism event is really quite incredible. I'm still gaping.
It's been one long slow motion car crash since Miliband turned up with a three metre high slab of rock, the week before the election.
With all that's going on right now, there needs to be an opposition worthy of the name. The current Labour Party aren't close to being able to provide it.
And to think, all this nonsense started with Eric Joyce and the drunken fight in the Strangers' Bar. Without that, there would be no Corbyn.
What happened after Joyce's punch up?
Joyce announced he was stepping down from his Falkirk seat, then the unions tried to stitch up the nomination for his successor, which led Miliband to come up with the new leadership election process, which led to Corbyn.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Early days, but a 10% drop in the value of the pound and the likelihood of negative interest rates is not particularly good news. It's also clear to me that if we want to protect our trade with Europe we're going to have to sign up to continued free movement.
OK so no evidence just scaremongering
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Early days, but a 10% drop in the value of the pound and the likelihood of negative interest rates is not particularly good news. It's also clear to me that if we want to protect our trade with Europe we're going to have to sign up to continued free movement.
The drop in the pound is a concern to those in the tourist industry here in Amalfi - where the British are a big part of the customer base.
How Brexit is handled and who handles it will affect the consequences but I think it is far too early to make a definitive judgment.
Do we know what type of Labour members were polled? Remember that there were four batches of members for the leadership election - the MPs and MEPs, the full party members, the union members and the £3 associate members. My guess would be that this poll only asked one of the four groups, and the second smallest group at that.
They asked me I thought it was a bit odd. The filter question at the beginning asked if I'd ever been a member of X Party - I answered honestly and said Tory and Labour. I wouldn't put too much store in this poll unless then removed responses like mine.
You were a £3 member last year, rather than a full member? Trying to understand how representative the poll is, or' if it's little more than a voodoo poll because of sampling errors.
Yup. Labour don't need any help to make a complete pigs ear of it this time. How they managed to get all over the news re their anti-Semitism event is really quite incredible. I'm still gaping.
It's been one long slow motion car crash since Miliband turned up with a three metre high slab of rock, the week before the election.
With all that's going on right now, there needs to be an opposition worthy of the name. The current Labour Party aren't close to being able to provide it.
And to think, all this nonsense started with Eric Joyce and the drunken fight in the Strangers' Bar. Without that, there would be no Corbyn.
What happened after Joyce's punch up?
The Falkirk fiasco, which led to the disastrous new rules on elections and membership.
However, don't forget Corbyn was on 49% on paid up members alone. They may be saner than the entryists were, but he would still have won under the old rules.
The party really did want to commit self-harm. But honourable exceptions like SO aside, I don't think they realised it would be seppuku.
@RochdalePioneers great post. Your area should be required canvassing for all the contenders to replace Jez.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
I have accepted it. As for self pity, far from it. We charge mainly in US$, so the pound's collapse has boosted our profitability.
But if the evidence of the exchange rates is telling you that the pound is collapsing, please look again - you'll find it's just 'scaremongering'.
Mr Gove said he wanted his chief of staff to be Dominic Cummings, his former special adviser at the Department of Education and a key strategist in the Leave campaign. Mr Cummings is a controversial and at times divisive figure, and Mr Johnson put his foot down.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
I have accepted it. As for self pity, far from it. We charge mainly in US$, so the pound's collapse has boosted our profitability.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
ConHome is not a good reflection of Tory Party members' views. Leadsom is too junior, too inexperienced and too hectoring. May will run on 'a safe pair of hands for difficult times' and that will be enough.
You've been wrong before, David - we all have - and you may be wrong again, in this instance junior and inexperienced count for less than commitment to Brexit.
One interesting thing from Ms Leadsom's ITV bit this morning. She wanted Cameron to stay, to have avoided the current uncertainly. Ideally he would have appointed a Leaver to head and begin negotiations ASAP.
(Both May and Leadsom have advocated a specific minister/department to deal with EU-UK deal. Leadsom said deputy PM in her LBC interview.)
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
My son, based in East Asia, and selling to several countries there and Australasia, reports the same experience.
I'm genuinely curious. When they've stopped being astonished and laughing do any of them ask themselves whether what the EU is, how it has behaved and where it is going might - just possibly - have had something to do with the decision?
Nope! If Drunker had any sense of decency he would have resigned last week. Instead we get the Eurocrats bleating about how dangerous it is to allow the people a say in how they're governed.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Early days, but a 10% drop in the value of the pound and the likelihood of negative interest rates is not particularly good news. It's also clear to me that if we want to protect our trade with Europe we're going to have to sign up to continued free movement.
OK so no evidence just scaremongering
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
But you have failed to offer any evidence, you simply mention "likelihood"
Re YouGov, worth noting that the figures relate to Labour *members*. In a leadership election, the three-quidders would still presumably break heavily for Corbyn and bolster his position. Indeed, his 50% with members in the head-to-head with Eagle is almost exactly the share he won in the actual election last year.
The poll does include the three quidders.
See the final column, labelled 'Supporters who haven't joined'
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
I'd be happy with Gove or Leadsom. I'm more in favour of Gove, and will be rooting for him during the MP ballots. However, I suspect that he's actually made a tactical decision to knock Boris out. He's unlikely to win, but his support will transfer to Leadsom.
It's brutal stuff - but Tory politics is a rough old game when there's a leadership election on.
It's very interesting to watch the different ways the two parties have their disagreements. The Tories will have theirs in public then all rally behind the new leader - although with Boris gone it will most likely be quite a polite affair now. Labour meanwhile don't even have a mechanism by which they can assassinate an unwanted leader, except literally assassinating him! Assuming his health, JC will still be there in 2020 to fight the election for the hard Left.
If Jezza wins again, WTF are the PLP going to do?! I'm watching through my fingers.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?
They're 0.5% now, there's not an awful lot of scope for cutting them much more!
Mr Gove said he wanted his chief of staff to be Dominic Cummings, his former special adviser at the Department of Education and a key strategist in the Leave campaign. Mr Cummings is a controversial and at times divisive figure, and Mr Johnson put his foot down.
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
ConHome is not a good reflection of Tory Party members' views. Leadsom is too junior, too inexperienced and too hectoring. May will run on 'a safe pair of hands for difficult times' and that will be enough.
You've been wrong before, David - we all have - and you may be wrong again, in this instance junior and inexperienced count for less than commitment to Brexit.
No, not among most members it won't. The Leave / Remain division is massively overplayed in the media and among obsessives: the one is overly concerned with pseudo-celeb gossip; the other is blinded by its failure to understand the big picture.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?
They're 0.5% now, there's not an awful lot of scope for cutting them much more!
mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there. That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
ConHome is not a good reflection of Tory Party members' views. Leadsom is too junior, too inexperienced and too hectoring. May will run on 'a safe pair of hands for difficult times' and that will be enough.
You've been wrong before, David - we all have - and you may be wrong again, in this instance junior and inexperienced count for less than commitment to Brexit.
One interesting thing from Ms Leadsom's ITV bit this morning. She wanted Cameron to stay, to have avoided the current uncertainly. Ideally he would have appointed a Leaver to head and begin negotiations ASAP.
(Both May and Leadsom have advocated a specific minister/department to deal with EU-UK deal. Leadsom said deputy PM in her LBC interview.)
The second part makes sense, not the first. Cameron was tolerated reluctantly by the party because he was seen as a winner, a golden boy who always found a way to win. The referendum destroyed that and he had to go.
I also think he was very shocked and hurt to realise just how out of touch he was with his party and with the country. He sold himself as the man who got the Tories to listen and deliver - and it must have seemed as though they had been right all along. That must have shattered his self belief and it's not surprising he wanted out.
Re YouGov, worth noting that the figures relate to Labour *members*. In a leadership election, the three-quidders would still presumably break heavily for Corbyn and bolster his position. Indeed, his 50% with members in the head-to-head with Eagle is almost exactly the share he won in the actual election last year.
The poll does include the three quidders.
See the final column, labelled 'Supporters who haven't joined'
Mr Gove said he wanted his chief of staff to be Dominic Cummings, his former special adviser at the Department of Education and a key strategist in the Leave campaign. Mr Cummings is a controversial and at times divisive figure, and Mr Johnson put his foot down.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?
I may be misremembering but wasn't Osborne warning before the vote that interest and mortgage rates were going to be higher?
I accept that there is and will continue to be a lot of uncertainty and that things will be tough. But a week after the vote is too soon to make any sort of final judgment. Everyone needs to take a step back and think calmly about what to do next so that we can get to a situation which works, as far as possible, for us, all of us. This will be hard work and pointing to one day's trading or the exchange rate at two o'clock on one particular day is not the way to get us through this.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?
They're 0.5% now, there's not an awful lot of scope for cutting them much more!
They may well go negative. Although the first cut will be to halve them, probably. It then depends on whether the lower pound fuels some inflationary pressures (which in the short run could actually be positive) that start to feed into a spiral that makes them reverse tack and push rates up again.
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.
And what is that evidence?
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?
They're 0.5% now, there's not an awful lot of scope for cutting them much more!
We could see negative interest rates.
This is getting better, imagine how mortgage payers would react if interest rates went up.
And I keep hearing millions of ordinary people are worse off.
Comments
It's unbelievable the economic illiteracy that pervades Brexit. The 2008 crash triggered off stock market volatility. Before the bank bailouts, when the UK economy was on the verge of collapsing, the stock market was still going up and down.
I think I am going to conjure up another word for the ideologues, followers of Brexit or Corbyn....BrexCorbs....dimwitted, nihilistic, demagoguery, idiots...people who refuse to follow the basic facts, and believe in their ridiculous ideology.
There was a typically California lady (mid 30s, well maintained, clearly wealthy) standing behind her in the queue. On hearing my wife lived in London she expressed how impressed she was. Why?
"Well, I couldn't live anywhere they didn't speak English"
(but you are right, SoCal is a wonderful place. Far nicer than Georgia
Good point about the US development, they'll need more training on roundabouts and I hope they've not hard coded 'drive on the right' anywhere!
I did hear of a trial of self driving cars in the UK this year, developed by JLR and Volvo.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-28551069
Those of us who interact with the electorate - councillors, activists, organisers - know we can't win an election with Corbyn as leader. As a Corbyn supporter last year I've been persuaded otherwise by the continued incompetence of the operation and the "I'm a labour supporter but can't vote for him" message on the doorstep. Doesn't appear to affect the how people vote in council elections but I would take no guidance about a GE from any council by elections.
Those members who don't interact with the public (and generally have never been seen) tell us that Corbyn is The Messiah and if it wasn't for us Blairite [insets chosen expletive] and their running dog cowards then we'd win the election with him easily.
I am happy that as a CLP we will have a General Election operation ready for November. May might say she doesn't want one, but if the Tories couldn't get anything of substance through before they knifed each other (and 2 months of violent stabbings still to go) then they'll have even less success passing massive divisive issues like Brexit.
However, the big point here is that we have made our means smaller by voting Leave. the Tory Leavers promised no tax rises and extra public spending. We will get the direct opposite. Except pensioners, of course.
twitter.com/zerohedge/status/748518505478258694
"HSBC February: if Brexit we will move 1000 bankers to France
HSBC now: we will not move 1000 bankers to France"
twitter.com/zerohedge/status/748707243143593984
I'm not sure that the PLP currently has the capability to provide that scrutiny, regardless of their leadership.
But I'd like to see a strong, independent, coherent centre-left party on the opposition benches. I don't think that Labour can ever provide it: too much baggage
When the new centre party was formed in changed everything and for a couple of years they swept all before them, until their bubble burst during the Falklands war.
The pre-conditions for something similar are almost all in place, except for amnesia about how it all turned out last time.
One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
You're right in one aspect, disillusioned people vote Ukip, but these people outnumber the mythical bright young things substantially, last week proved that conclusively.
[Edit - I did drop an email to the membership team on this; I've been a Lib Dem member for years and this sort of thing bothers me. And yours isn't the first comment along these lines I've seen]
I think the Pensioners day's of being protected are over - 'you voted for LEAVE, here are some of the consequences...'
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6#.n6kbssgv4
"As the tables show, over three quarters of Conservative-held constituencies voted to Leave, and seven in ten Labour-held constituencies. Although Labour as a party is very much more favourable to the EU than the Conservative party, the same cannot be said of the constituencies it holds."
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
NZ is not entirely how Brits and tourists see it. There is a surprising amount of gang violence and drug abuse, though as I worked in A and E there, you do see the seedier side of the place.
Anyone considering moving there should look past Lord of the Rings to Once Were Warriors:
http://m.imdb.com/title/tt0110729/
On second thoughts, perhaps NZ is gritty enough, and the West Coast has a grim enough climate...
See the final column, labelled 'Supporters who haven't joined'
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf
If Labour does ever come to it senses, a new leader would do well to facilitate canvassing trips for London members to the Midlands and the North. A few weekends in the Black Country or West Yorkshire might open some eyes.
If the rest of the EU falls apart, then everyone is worse off, but in the very long run we might come out of it OK, at least relative to everyone else. If the EU hangs together, we face life in the cold, and it is way too early to judge how bad this might be.
With all that's going on right now, there needs to be an opposition worthy of the name. The current Labour Party aren't close to being able to provide it.
And to think, all this nonsense started with Eric Joyce and the drunken fight in the Strangers' Bar. Without that, there would be no Corbyn.
It's brutal stuff - but Tory politics is a rough old game when there's a leadership election on.
Maybe, post Brexit, we'll need to set up a camp in Folkestone for all those English people who want to escape to Europe, the companies that will re-locate the many thousands of staff to common market countries, the finance industry, the tech entrepreneurs, the young professionals who want a much better future in Europe for themselves rather than Brexit Britain. We'll need some way of processing this exodus.
For once.
Probably old news to everyone on here, but I've just discovered there's a Tory Island off the west coast of Ireland, which has a King.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tory_Island
I discovered it from Alex Ellis-Roswell, who is walking the coasts of Britain and Ireland for the RNLI. An amazing feat.
https://twitter.com/ellisroswell?lang=en-gb
I'm not quite sure what the late Jo Cox was thinking either. She did express regret, but with Brexit having won, it looks like getting Corbyn elected will be her sole political legacy.
No drunken fight, no Jeremy Corbyn.
How Brexit is handled and who handles it will affect the consequences but I think it is far too early to make a definitive judgment.
However, don't forget Corbyn was on 49% on paid up members alone. They may be saner than the entryists were, but he would still have won under the old rules.
The party really did want to commit self-harm. But honourable exceptions like SO aside, I don't think they realised it would be seppuku.
@RochdalePioneers great post. Your area should be required canvassing for all the contenders to replace Jez.
From a net +45 to just +3 in less than a month.
That's a worse fall than Gordon Brown during the first Brown bounce.
Mr Gove said he wanted his chief of staff to be Dominic Cummings, his former special adviser at the Department of Education and a key strategist in the Leave campaign. Mr Cummings is a controversial and at times divisive figure, and Mr Johnson put his foot down.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/how-boris-johnson-was-brought-to-his-knees-by-the-cuckoo-nest-pl/
(Both May and Leadsom have advocated a specific minister/department to deal with EU-UK deal. Leadsom said deputy PM in her LBC interview.)
What the data does show is that the current makeup of Labour's membership is a good deal more favourable to him than when he won.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1371058/inside-story-of-tories-borexit-how-bojos-career-was-left-in-tatters-a-week-after-he-thought-hed-be-next-pm/
I also think he was very shocked and hurt to realise just how out of touch he was with his party and with the country. He sold himself as the man who got the Tories to listen and deliver - and it must have seemed as though they had been right all along. That must have shattered his self belief and it's not surprising he wanted out.
I accept that there is and will continue to be a lot of uncertainty and that things will be tough. But a week after the vote is too soon to make any sort of final judgment. Everyone needs to take a step back and think calmly about what to do next so that we can get to a situation which works, as far as possible, for us, all of us. This will be hard work and pointing to one day's trading or the exchange rate at two o'clock on one particular day is not the way to get us through this.
And I keep hearing millions of ordinary people are worse off.