From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.
Quite - kle4's point about his friendship with Cameron is probably true. But let's say Gove drops out next Tuesday - does he back May or Leadsom? I really don't know.
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
I've just sent out a straw poll among a whatsapp group of members, the same group who plumped for Theresa against Boris almost on the lines of the YouGov that came out the next day. Should have all the responses by the end of the day.
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories.
You seem blind to the number of LibDems who also voted Leave. If they hadn't voted as they did, Remain could have won... So Brexit is down to the LibDem leadership failing to convince their voters.
(To be fair, the same also applies to Labour in much greater measure.)
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
I thought it was meant to be Right that did all the paternalism!
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
I do think we mustn't underestimate the complications of the first part of the electorate - Tory MPs. It seems certain that May get's to the last two, but it could be almost any of the other 4 who join her.
The symbolism of Gove opting to go over the top at 11am, given the Somme remembrance, seems entirely appropriate.
A minute silence for his political ambitions is in keeping. After which there will be the sound of many raspberries being fired off.
Let us hope Mrs May uses her new authority as PM to sack Gove from the cabinet. Shafting a colleague and showing a devastating lack of judgement should not be seen to be rewarded.
Given part of her pitch will be 'steady as she goes' I presume there won't be that many changes. Which is a shame. Although I think Cameron has been right to not chop and change it'd be interesting to see new faces. I still expect more leavers get top jobs but not too many.
PM May will likely never be more powerful than after she leaves Buckingham Palace.
1. New Home Secretary required - Grayling? .. Then new Leader of HoC 2. Combine SoS for Wales, Scotland, NI and possibly London into one SoS for Devolved Admin dept. 3. SoS for BREXIT - Leadsom 4. Swap Hammond and Osborne. 5. Sack Gove. 6. Boris to Party Chairman .. 7. Charlie Falconer - SoS for Atlantis. 8. Peerages for JohnO and Alastair Matlock .. the former SoS for Transport ..
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating. One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.
I lived in Christchuch for a year. A lovely city before the earthquake.
NZ is not entirely how Brits and tourists see it. There is a surprising amount of gang violence and drug abuse, though as I worked in A and E there, you do see the seedier side of the place.
Anyone considering moving there should look past Lord of the Rings to Once Were Warriors:
On second thoughts, perhaps NZ is gritty enough, and the West Coast has a grim enough climate...
Good morning all. I was seconded to NZ for three months back in the late 00's - was based in Wellington. It's a lovely country but a cultural desert. It did feel as if I'd stepped back in time.
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories.
You seem blind to the number of LibDems who also voted Leave. If they hadn't voted as they did, Remain could have won... So Brexit is down to the LibDem leadership failing to convince their voters.
(To be fair, the same also applies to Labour in much greater measure.)
If 20% of Lib Dems voted leave that's still only 37...
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead. I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???
I understand Tory recruiting is going along quite nicely.
And the SNP will still have a block of 50 or so seats after the next election. The Labour Leader peering out of Salmonds pocket still stands. Even more so if it is Corbyn...
I think the Conservatives might lose a couple of seats in the Stockbroker Belt to the Lib Dems, but I think they'll hang on to all their gains in the South West, especially as I could see a lot of UKIP voters switching to them when they deliver Brexit.
If Corbyn resigns does the Harman rule apply so that only women can run?
If that rule exists and works both ways its stupider than even I would expect the labour party to be.
I can just about understand the point of having a female deputy if you have a male leader (and vice versa) but you can't rule out 40-60% of potential leaders just because you have a male deputy....
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead. I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???
I understand Tory recruiting is going along quite nicely.
And the SNP will still have a block of 50 or so seats after the next election. The Labour Leader peering out of Salmonds pocket still stands. Even more so if it is Corbyn...
But which is more frightening to the ordinary elector just now? The SNP or the incompetent Tories?
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories.
You seem blind to the number of LibDems who also voted Leave. If they hadn't voted as they did, Remain could have won... So Brexit is down to the LibDem leadership failing to convince their voters.
(To be fair, the same also applies to Labour in much greater measure.)
I know it is fashionable to blame the LibDems for things, but the chances of the LibDems taking the blame for Brexit are zero.
The symbolism of Gove opting to go over the top at 11am, given the Somme remembrance, seems entirely appropriate.
A minute silence for his political ambitions is in keeping. After which there will be the sound of many raspberries being fired off.
Let us hope Mrs May uses her new authority as PM to sack Gove from the cabinet. Shafting a colleague and showing a devastating lack of judgement should not be seen to be rewarded.
Better to make him Minister for Brexit to deliver the bullshit from the Vote Leave manifesto. Give him just enough rope.
Given that Gove supposedly doesn't want us in either EEA or EFTA and supposedly just wants a WTO deal, you don't want him as Minister for Brexit....
I actually think you need to give Minister of Brexit to Osbourne. He won't like it but at least he will try and get a deal everyone in the UK would accept....
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.
Team Osborne, as I exclusively revealed on PB yesterday, Gove wants Ozzy to remain Chancellor
But it looks like Osborne has double crossed Gove now that his lieutenants have declared for May. Rudd, McLoughlin and Hancock are all in Team Theresa.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead. I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???
I understand Tory recruiting is going along quite nicely.
And the SNP will still have a block of 50 or so seats after the next election. The Labour Leader peering out of Salmonds pocket still stands. Even more so if it is Corbyn...
I think the Conservatives might lose a couple of seats in the Stockbroker Belt to the Lib Dems, but I think they'll hang on to all their gains in the South West, especially as I could see a lot of UKIP voters switching to them when they deliver Brexit.
Not if May retains the single market and free movement though I think any Tory losses to UKIP are more likely in the East Midlands, the East and Kent
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories.
You seem blind to the number of LibDems who also voted Leave. If they hadn't voted as they did, Remain could have won... So Brexit is down to the LibDem leadership failing to convince their voters.
(To be fair, the same also applies to Labour in much greater measure.)
I know it is fashionable to blame the LibDems for things, but the chances of the LibDems taking the blame for Brexit are zero.
I tried to blame the Lib Dems to a Lib Dem colleague yesterday, on the basis that if they hadn't been useless at the GE we'd have another coalition, and then we could have avoided the blasted referendum altogether.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.
Good luck to the LibDems in 2020 running on a rejoin the EU ticket - complete with the Euro and Schengen. It won't happen, will it? No. In which case the LibDem position will have been a very temporary one.
They're trying to latch on to the 48 remain support so they can increase their base. If that can go from 5 to 10 with such a policy, they hope picking up at GE, that'd be good for them. Nothing else has worked.
And May's comments mean nothing. Cameron said he wouldn't resign. I don't think either party wants a ge right now so it won't happen, but if they changed their minds or even think now it might be a good idea, you wouldn't say so.now, disrupting things.
I know it's difficult for us hard-bitten cynics who bet on politics to accept, but perhaps many LibDem activists actually do believe in the EU, warts and all, the whole caboodle?
I think they would like the warts removed but, otherwise, yes.
I would expect quite a bit of slippage from that 40, in terms of nominations. I think if/when Corbyn goes the pressure is off and the likes of Thornberry and the loyalist metropolitan liberal wing of the party would not nominate a lefty. I think Corbyn and JM would fail to reach that the threshold, and they know it. Hence why Milne is refusing to let Corbyn resign.
Corbyn will not go other than for McDonnell though and as he has shown he can hold the leadership even when most of the PLP pass a no confidence vote in him so what the PLP thinks now is irrelevant, if they don't get McDonnell they stay with Corbyn. There is no alternative
Sadly, all those posters resonate, now even more. I'd publish them to show the futility of the CorBrexers position- Corbrexer (Corbyn/Brexit)- I have now joined these two hateful ideologies together because they are so well suited.
So it looks like May. I'm entirely happy with that as long as she sees Brexit through properly. I hope she clears house a bit on the ministerial appointments side, starting with Osborne who is a malign figure and creator of far too much political intrigue when we need simple getting on with things. I'd very much like her to find a role for Daniel Hannan.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead. I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???
I understand Tory recruiting is going along quite nicely.
And the SNP will still have a block of 50 or so seats after the next election. The Labour Leader peering out of Salmonds pocket still stands. Even more so if it is Corbyn...
I think the Conservatives might lose a couple of seats in the Stockbroker Belt to the Lib Dems, but I think they'll hang on to all their gains in the South West, especially as I could see a lot of UKIP voters switching to them when they deliver Brexit.
Sean. Should PM May deliver BREXIT in a form broadly acceptable to you, will you become part of the Tory faithful again?
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead. I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???
I understand Tory recruiting is going along quite nicely.
And the SNP will still have a block of 50 or so seats after the next election. The Labour Leader peering out of Salmonds pocket still stands. Even more so if it is Corbyn...
I think the Conservatives might lose a couple of seats in the Stockbroker Belt to the Lib Dems, but I think they'll hang on to all their gains in the South West, especially as I could see a lot of UKIP voters switching to them when they deliver Brexit.
That depends on how it goes! If Brexit turns out badly (and the West Country is arguably more exposed than most), I don't think voters will say "fair do's, I voted Leave so it's really all my fault". They will blame the Tories for leading them up the garden path...and vote LibDem.
And it's not like she was a wheeler dealer bad banker; it looks like she was quite a boring banker.
Head of Corporate Governance. Having suffered under the lash of governance committees for many years, I've an instinctive aversion to them. However, they're generally not the buccaneering stereotypes that ruined the financial system.
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.
I think it's multi-dimensional.
Gove saw a wobbly looking Boris who wasn't showing the required discipline post campaign. His DT article looked like backsliding and rang lots of alarm bells. And there's reports that Boris wasn't careful enough in who he promised what to. That little lot shook confidence a step too far.
Gove also wanted to make up with Cameron - and knocking out Boris would kill two birds with one stone.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
The symbolism of Gove opting to go over the top at 11am, given the Somme remembrance, seems entirely appropriate.
A minute silence for his political ambitions is in keeping. After which there will be the sound of many raspberries being fired off.
Let us hope Mrs May uses her new authority as PM to sack Gove from the cabinet. Shafting a colleague and showing a devastating lack of judgement should not be seen to be rewarded.
Better to make him Minister for Brexit to deliver the bullshit from the Vote Leave manifesto. Give him just enough rope.
If Mr Gove is as tight with Mr Osborne as the papers suggest its difficult to place him in any department. He can't be CoE, because nothing would change, he can't be Brexit negotiator. Foreign Sec??? Maybe.
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
I thought it was meant to be Right that did all the paternalism!
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
"Experts failed to predict the 2008 crash so we should ignore their warnings now". I never saw the logic in that assertion. A comment, really. Logic never comes into it.
I think the Farrage/Hitler one may have worked if they had adapted it to the UKIP immigration poster and photoshopped "immigrant" armbands on to the people in the UKIP poster with the Farage/Hitler picture above it.
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Yep. He has kept Boris away from No.10, his work is done.
It is just about the only interpretation that makes any sense. But reading Mrs Gove's email, for the circle to be complete, he would have had to have made some kind of a deal with both May and Leadsom for a position, post-result.
That is a very complicated set of circumstances...
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.
Quite - kle4's point about his friendship with Cameron is probably true. But let's say Gove drops out next Tuesday - does he back May or Leadsom? I really don't know.
That could very well be the most important question.
Hence Gove has something to bargain with. Hence he isn't finished.
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
I thought it was meant to be Right that did all the paternalism!
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
"Experts failed to predict the 2008 crash so we should ignore their warnings now". I never saw the logic in that assertion. A comment, really. Logic never comes into it.
Indeed. But the fact remains that ultimately it was the voters that chose to ignore the warnings. Clearly experts of various sorts need to do something significant to raise their stock with the British public, being right occasionally would help, and keeping their mouths shut if they don't know would be a huge bonus.
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.
I think it's multi-dimensional.
Gove saw a wobbly looking Boris who wasn't showing the required discipline post campaign. His DT article looked like backsliding and rang lots of alarm bells. And there's reports that Boris wasn't careful enough in who he promised what to. That little lot shook confidence a step too far.
Gove also wanted to make up with Cameron - and knocking out Boris would kill two birds with one stone.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove has made himself utterly toxic and completely untrustworthy. He is a little shit....and a very ugly man to boot, inside and out.
Sadly, all those posters resonate, now even more. I'd publish them to show the futility of the CorBrexers position- Corbrexer (Corbyn/Brexit)- I have now joined these two hateful ideologies together because they are so well suited.
There were some good images there, but the one of Farage-as-Hitler was not worthy. What's that about if you mention Hitler, you've lost the argument?
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
I thought it was meant to be Right that did all the paternalism!
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
"Experts failed to predict the 2008 crash so we should ignore their warnings now". I never saw the logic in that assertion. A comment, really. Logic never comes into it.
Indeed. But the fact remains that ultimately it was the voters that chose to ignore the warnings. Clearly experts of various sorts need to do something significant to raise their stock with the British public, being right occasionally would help, and keeping their mouths shut if they don't know would be a huge bonus.
I seem to recall speeches from Vince Cable which included such warnings.
I think the Farrage/Hitler one may have worked if they had adapted it to the UKIP immigration poster and photoshopped "immigrant" armbands on to the people in the UKIP poster with the Farage/Hitler picture above it.
The "leave" NHS advert was very convincing to me personally. Had to try and not let the "remain" politicians sway my vote in the last couple of days mind.
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
I thought it was meant to be Right that did all the paternalism!
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
If you ask a stupid question you get a stupid answer. How are ordinary people going to have a better idea than the "experts" what is going to happen? But they were the ones that were asked and they came back with their answer. The whole point of the referendum was to bypass the experts.
And it's not like she was a wheeler dealer bad banker; it looks like she was quite a boring banker.
Hmm, doesn't look like it to me based on that list at least.
Fair enough - I don't really understand the City; Head of Corporate Governance just strikes me as dull....
You think negotiating treaties is something other than dull? Its detail, delegating, and getting stuff right.
Oh I completely agree - I was making the point that just because she is politically junior it is unfair to say she is inexperienced. She has significant relevant experience before politics and Tories will get that.
Sadly, all those posters resonate, now even more. I'd publish them to show the futility of the CorBrexers position- Corbrexer (Corbyn/Brexit)- I have now joined these two hateful ideologies together because they are so well suited.
There were some good images there, but the one of Farage-as-Hitler was not worthy. What's that about if you mention Hitler, you've lost the argument?
Agreed- the Hitler one I guess was someone having a bit of a laugh with some editing , but it was very good all the same.
Note in the Guardian’s instant (fairly) news thread. "Yiftah Curiel, spokesman for the Israeli ambassador Mark Regev, said shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry had apologised to the embassy following the completion of Labour’s antisemitism review. At the launch of the report, Jeremy Corbyn appeared to compare Israel to terror organisation Islamic State in prepared remarks."
Does someone still have a link to the list of declared Tory MPs by candidate please. I just can't face wading through several thousand posts to find it again....
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
It was interesting to see Steve Baker interviewed before Boris' announcement. Must have been tricky for him to answer the questions about his support for Boris, knowing as he obviously did, that Boris was about to quit.
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.
Quite - kle4's point about his friendship with Cameron is probably true. But let's say Gove drops out next Tuesday - does he back May or Leadsom? I really don't know.
That could very well be the most important question.
Hence Gove has something to bargain with. Hence he isn't finished.
I don’t think Gove has a chance in hell of winning the leadership after all this kafuffle, he would however fit in quite well in either a May or Leadsom lead party imho, he’s to ‘useful’ to be dumped on the backbenches.
Does someone still have a link to the list of declared Tory MPs by candidate please. I just can't face wading through several thousand posts to find it again....
So it looks like May. I'm entirely happy with that as long as she sees Brexit through properly. I hope she clears house a bit on the ministerial appointments side, starting with Osborne who is a malign figure and creator of far too much political intrigue when we need simple getting on with things. I'd very much like her to find a role for Daniel Hannan.
Does someone still have a link to the list of declared Tory MPs by candidate please. I just can't face wading through several thousand posts to find it again....
So it looks like May. I'm entirely happy with that as long as she sees Brexit through properly. I hope she clears house a bit on the ministerial appointments side, starting with Osborne who is a malign figure and creator of far too much political intrigue when we need simple getting on with things. I'd very much like her to find a role for Daniel Hannan.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
I thought it was meant to be Right that did all the paternalism!
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
What is all this expert worship all of a sudden? We are a democracy, not an expertocracy, and I think Gove here made the common political mistake of putting a very, very good point very badly because it was more obvious to him than his audience. Would you be happy with the argument that Cameron must be a politics expert because he has a degree in it from Oxford and the rest of us haven't, so leave all the political decisions to him?
Probably everyone posting here is an expert in at least one subject - their job - to the extent that, say, they could appear as talking heads on a serious BBC programme about it without disgracing themselves. Most of those with PhDs can go further and claim to be the world's leading expert on one particular (very limited) subject. And all those experts will probably agree that being an expert doesn't entail either omniscience, or crystal ball ownership.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
It's a personality flaw of mine, that I do sometimes judge people on who they can get to marry them - I don't she reflects well on him.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
Brexit is a short term positive because of the collapse against the dollar....so in this fragile situation it represents good short term value for dollar holders.
It won't last of course as we head full course into a recession- but that won't bother the traders who just love this kind of volatility.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.
Her view is no General Election. Will parliamentary maths support that view? Before the referendum they were unable to get a Queens' Speech containing no bills at all and had reversed course on a variety of measures the previous year.
Now that they have torn themselves apart the survivors will have to try and heal their stab wounds and pass a massively contentious legislative programme that most of them disagree with.
She may say no election. Basic mathematics suggests she may only be saying that, the reality is likely to be different.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
It's a personality flaw of mine, that I do sometimes judge people on who they can get to marry them - I don't she reflects well on him.
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.
I thought it was meant to be Right that did all the paternalism!
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
What is all this expert worship all of a sudden? We are a democracy, not an expertocracy, and I think Gove here made the common political mistake of putting a very, very good point very badly because it was more obvious to him than his audience. Would you be happy with the argument that Cameron must be a politics expert because he has a degree in it from Oxford and the rest of us haven't, so leave all the political decisions to him?
Probably everyone posting here is an expert in at least one subject - their job - to the extent that, say, they could appear as talking heads on a serious BBC programme about it without disgracing themselves. Most of those with PhDs can go further and claim to be the world's leading expert on one particular (very limited) subject. And all those experts will probably agree that being an expert doesn't entail either omniscience, or crystal ball ownership.
I very much agree with your last paragraph. In my pomp, I was a recognised as an expert in my field (albeit only within the Five Eyes community). Personally, I was always excruciatingly conscious that however much I knew, it paled into comparison to the things I didn't. I was much cockier when I was a 'rising star'. One of the beneficial side-effects of becoming an expert is a welcome injection of humility.
While I wouldn't automatically discount expert's views, it is clear that we do not live in a technocracy, nor would many of us particularly want to.
So it looks like May. I'm entirely happy with that as long as she sees Brexit through properly. I hope she clears house a bit on the ministerial appointments side, starting with Osborne who is a malign figure and creator of far too much political intrigue when we need simple getting on with things. I'd very much like her to find a role for Daniel Hannan.
Hannan should be on the Brexit negotiating team, he's literally written books on the subject and knows Brussles inside out. I'm sure there will be a safe seat waiting for him in 2020 if not before. Witney maybe?
I don’t think Gove has a chance in hell of winning the leadership after all this kafuffle, he would however fit in quite well in either a May or Leadsom lead party imho, he’s to ‘useful’ to be dumped on the backbenches.
I'm not sure exactly why Gove is "too useful".
Gove was previously seen as a man of principle, a cerebral individual who brought a sense of gravitas and innate decency to proceedings.
Well, he flushed that reputation down the khazi yesterday morning. Who needs Gove now? .. damaged goods doesn't come close. Politically Gove soiled himself as his sh*t hit the fan.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
It's a personality flaw of mine, that I do sometimes judge people on who they can get to marry them - I don't she reflects well on him.
The Gove's make the Hamiltons seem normal.
I once met the Hamiltons in a Moroccan restaurant in Soho at 11pm on a Friday night; they were with Madonna's hat designer and Norman Wisdom's agent - no really. They were charming - no, no really.
And it's not like she was a wheeler dealer bad banker; it looks like she was quite a boring banker.
Her work exposing the LIBOR scandal using Treasury Select Committee is pretty impressive. She's a gamekeeper, not a poacher.
She was not really a banker at all. Her experience is in the investment management industry, which is very different to that of investment bankers, let alone traders. Her City experience - while good - is relatively focused. It would be wrong to assume that she knows about all parts of the financial sector, which encompasses far more than LIBOR-style traders. Worth bearing this in mind when listening to what she has to say on the financial services passport. Her experience is in one sector which may be relatively less affected by its loss.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.
Her view is no General Election. Will parliamentary maths support that view? Before the referendum they were unable to get a Queens' Speech containing no bills at all and had reversed course on a variety of measures the previous year.
Now that they have torn themselves apart the survivors will have to try and heal their stab wounds and pass a massively contentious legislative programme that most of them disagree with.
She may say no election. Basic mathematics suggests she may only be saying that, the reality is likely to be different.
The new government has no mandate to introduce the constitutional changes it will need to implement any of the Brexit options. It will have to go to the country.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
It's crashing out of the ERM redux.
It led to a fall in sterling boosting against expectations investment and exports leading to a boost in economic growth. We are following the exact same trajectory at the moment.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
The markets and the pound are up because Carney hinted at a rate cut. (Presumably from 0.5% to actually 0%). Fair dinkum. I think Carney has not acted well in the Brexit drama. His talk yesterday of national post traumatic stress disorder was, well PTSDish itself. Central bankers everywhere are a large part of why the world is as fucked up as it is. They lead on moral hazard where others fear to tread. ZIRP gives a sugar rush now but fundamentally undermines the basis of a market economy - that savers get a return and will invest. I hope May's new chancellor replaces him.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
Brexit is a short term positive because of the collapse against the dollar....so in this fragile situation it represents good short term value for dollar holders.
It won't last of course as we head full course into a recession- but that won't bother the traders who just love this kind of volatility.
I think there is more to it than that.
Before the Referendum, the US at least was starting to see if it could pull out of the QE/zero interest rate trap into which the western economies have fallen, and Japan at least cannot escape. The UK was expected to follow next year. Markets were already showing doubts about this and the pile of negative-interest-rate debt continues to grow.
Brexit is seen as a long-term negative (and not just to the UK), hence markets are starting to face the prospect of many more years of near-zero interest rates. This, and Carney's stated willingness to prop things up if need be, explain the sharp recovery in the markets, especially the FTSE which includes a lot of overseas earnings anyway. Shares like low interest rates.
Sadly this means that we may also now be stuck with the negative consequences of the current financial unreality - asset price bubbles, inequality, political instability - for longer than a lot of people were hoping.
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.
Her view is no General Election. Will parliamentary maths support that view? Before the referendum they were unable to get a Queens' Speech containing no bills at all and had reversed course on a variety of measures the previous year.
Now that they have torn themselves apart the survivors will have to try and heal their stab wounds and pass a massively contentious legislative programme that most of them disagree with.
She may say no election. Basic mathematics suggests she may only be saying that, the reality is likely to be different.
The new government has no mandate to introduce the constitutional changes it will need to implement any of the Brexit options. It will have to go to the country.
The government was elected with a mandate to hold an EU referendum. The EU referendum has given a mandate of leave.
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
It's crashing out of the ERM redux.
It led to a fall in sterling boosting against expectations investment and exports leading to a boost in economic growth. We are following the exact same trajectory at the moment.
Yet Carney is insistent that we will have a recession. All very odd.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
It's a personality flaw of mine, that I do sometimes judge people on who they can get to marry them - I don't she reflects well on him.
The Gove's make the Hamiltons seem normal.
I once met the Hamiltons in a Moroccan restaurant in Soho at 11pm on a Friday night; they were with Madonna's hat designer and Norman Wisdom's agent - no really. They were charming - no, no really.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.
Her view is no General Election. Will parliamentary maths support that view? Before the referendum they were unable to get a Queens' Speech containing no bills at all and had reversed course on a variety of measures the previous year.
Now that they have torn themselves apart the survivors will have to try and heal their stab wounds and pass a massively contentious legislative programme that most of them disagree with.
She may say no election. Basic mathematics suggests she may only be saying that, the reality is likely to be different.
The new government has no mandate to introduce the constitutional changes it will need to implement any of the Brexit options. It will have to go to the country.
It dosent need a mandate, it needs a majority. DUP and Carswell will vote with them on Brexit matters, that will be enough.
Also a good few labour like Hoey and Stuart will I suspect abstain and may even vote with government.
Anyone thinking they can overthrow this referendum is in denial still.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
It's a personality flaw of mine, that I do sometimes judge people on who they can get to marry them - I don't she reflects well on him.
The Gove's make the Hamiltons seem normal.
I once met the Hamiltons in a Moroccan restaurant in Soho at 11pm on a Friday night; they were with Madonna's hat designer and Norman Wisdom's agent - no really. They were charming - no, no really.
Talk about 'Z' list celebrities.
I'll have you know I consider myself V list. Oh, them you mean...
I do not understand the financial markets. Apparently Brexit is being construed as a short term positive. It has put the frighteners on the Fed and made a rate rise less likely.
Bonkers.
The markets and the pound are up because Carney hinted at a rate cut. (Presumably from 0.5% to actually 0%). Fair dinkum. I think Carney has not acted well in the Brexit drama. His talk yesterday of national post traumatic stress disorder was, well PTSDish itself. Central bankers everywhere are a large part of why the world is as fucked up as it is. They lead on moral hazard where others fear to tread. ZIRP gives a sugar rush now but fundamentally undermines the basis of a market economy - that savers get a return and will invest. I hope May's new chancellor replaces him.
I wasn't impressed by his tone either. He needs replacing.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
Gove's "backers" .... Titter ....
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
They've been a lot of men who are not particularly pleasing to the eye in politics....I remember poor Leon Britton. Prescott too, the hateful Cyril. But Gove must rank as one of the ugliest in living memory. Don't eat while he's on the TV- he ruined a good pasta I made yesterday. But that ugliness also lies within his heart, and he is married to that horrible wife.
It's a personality flaw of mine, that I do sometimes judge people on who they can get to marry them - I don't she reflects well on him.
The Gove's make the Hamiltons seem normal.
I once met the Hamiltons in a Moroccan restaurant in Soho at 11pm on a Friday night; they were with Madonna's hat designer and Norman Wisdom's agent - no really. They were charming - no, no really.
Talk about 'Z' list celebrities.
If its the restaurant I am thinking of, it's not very good.
Can't see what people see in Leadsom. She was mediocre in the EU campaign. May seems to beat her in every dept including charisma! Leadsom's only advantage over May is that she was a Leaver.
The next government is going to be brutal. It could easily make the Brown administration look like a honeymoon. Do we really think she has the authority and experience to keep all those factions and egos together? There is no evidence for that as far as I can see.
A Leadsom government? You can hear the headlines already.
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
Very much a case of taking one for the team.
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.
Team Osborne, as I exclusively revealed on PB yesterday, Gove wants Ozzy to remain Chancellor
Worth reading this article from Iain Martin. One deadly quote from Lynton Crosby about Osborne.
"... Crosby, say friends, has a low opinion of the Chancellor. He once told friends that Obsorne “could not strategise his way out of a paper bag.”" http://reaction.life/boris-done-cuckoo-nest-plot/
So it looks like May. I'm entirely happy with that as long as she sees Brexit through properly. I hope she clears house a bit on the ministerial appointments side, starting with Osborne who is a malign figure and creator of far too much political intrigue when we need simple getting on with things. I'd very much like her to find a role for Daniel Hannan.
Hannan should be on the Brexit negotiating team, he's literally written books on the subject and knows Brussles inside out. I'm sure there will be a safe seat waiting for him in 2020 if not before. Witney maybe?
Safe seat in a by-election after this fiasco? A good chance for LibDems, Labour if they have a new leader or even UKIP. If Brexit pigeons coming home to roost by that point Hannan would get the fallout. Then Tory majority cut be two. Unlikely to happen in my opinion.
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.
Her view is no General Election. Will parliamentary maths support that view? Before the referendum they were unable to get a Queens' Speech containing no bills at all and had reversed course on a variety of measures the previous year.
Now that they have torn themselves apart the survivors will have to try and heal their stab wounds and pass a massively contentious legislative programme that most of them disagree with.
She may say no election. Basic mathematics suggests she may only be saying that, the reality is likely to be different.
The new government has no mandate to introduce the constitutional changes it will need to implement any of the Brexit options. It will have to go to the country.
It dosent need a mandate, it needs a majority. DUP and Carswell will vote with them on Brexit matters, that will be enough.
Also a good few labour like Hoey and Stuart will I suspect abstain and may even vote with government.
Anyone thinking they can overthrow this referendum is in denial still.
It's not about overthrowing Brexit, it's about getting popular support for the flavour of Brexit we're going to implement.
Since these have a dramatic influence on the direction of the country and impact our constitution, the preferred solution without doubt needs popular support.
And it's not like she was a wheeler dealer bad banker; it looks like she was quite a boring banker.
Her work exposing the LIBOR scandal using Treasury Select Committee is pretty impressive. She's a gamekeeper, not a poacher.
She was not really a banker at all. Her experience is in the investment management industry, which is very different to that of investment bankers, let alone traders. Her City experience - while good - is relatively focused. It would be wrong to assume that she knows about all parts of the financial sector, which encompasses far more than LIBOR-style traders. Worth bearing this in mind when listening to what she has to say on the financial services passport. Her experience is in one sector which may be relatively less affected by its loss.
Yes, well the industry roundtable was interesting. Most are saying nothing changes, even if we aren't in the passporting zone. I was expecting it to be more downcast, but honestly I was surprised by how people seem to have shrugged it off. When banks are talking about moving 1,000 jobs out of 20,000 we're not talking massive sums. Some even said depending on the attitude of the next government those lost positions to Dublin could be replaced by new people dealing with new markets in Asia and other regions with which we can open up new trading relationships.
Most would still like to keep the passport because its easy, but after hearing the views of people well above my paygrade, I don't think it will be the end of the world to lose it, and the idea that London would lose business to Paris and Frankfurt has been banished. There was literally a massive list of reasons why London is favourable to Paris or Frankfurt outside of the EU and Paris and Frankfurt have only added passporting rights. A lot of them are also worried that without the voice of the UK in the EU, moving to the EU leaves them open to over-regulation now that we won't be there to stop or reduce it.
Comments
(To be fair, the same also applies to Labour in much greater measure.)
Its the VOTERS that decided to discard the views of experts, they may have been egged on to do so by some members of the Leave campaign, but if experts had any credibility at all in this country the voters would have said "hang on a moment, actually I want to hear what the Governor of the Bank of England says", but largely they didn't.
While we are on the subject, this continued banging on about how BrExit is going to do irreparable damage to the poor over looks one rather important detail, they are the ones by and large that voted for it, remain was voted for by ABs and Leave by C2DE remember. So your complaint comes down to either they were stupid enough to believe what Leave said while you were not, which is patronising, or you believing that you known better how to run their lives than they do, which is paternalist, take your pick.
1. New Home Secretary required - Grayling? .. Then new Leader of HoC
2. Combine SoS for Wales, Scotland, NI and possibly London into one SoS for Devolved Admin dept.
3. SoS for BREXIT - Leadsom
4. Swap Hammond and Osborne.
5. Sack Gove.
6. Boris to Party Chairman ..
7. Charlie Falconer - SoS for Atlantis.
8. Peerages for JohnO and Alastair Matlock .. the former SoS for Transport ..
Sorted.
I can just about understand the point of having a female deputy if you have a male leader (and vice versa) but you can't rule out 40-60% of potential leaders just because you have a male deputy....
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/01/rejected-remain-campaign-posters-revealed-by-ad-agencies
I actually think you need to give Minister of Brexit to Osbourne. He won't like it but at least he will try and get a deal everyone in the UK would accept....
Gove saw a wobbly looking Boris who wasn't showing the required discipline post campaign. His DT article looked like backsliding and rang lots of alarm bells. And there's reports that Boris wasn't careful enough in who he promised what to. That little lot shook confidence a step too far.
Gove also wanted to make up with Cameron - and knocking out Boris would kill two birds with one stone.
I don't think Gove wants to be PM - he's a policy doing man, implementing Brexit is right up his street.
Eliminating Boris, protecting TeamBrexit and then passing his backers to Leadsom - what's not to like?
That is a very complicated set of circumstances...
Hence Gove has something to bargain with. Hence he isn't finished.
So that's Domonic Rabb, his dog, two canaries and the Sheffield steel cutlery knife industry.
Talk about the law of diminishing returns ....
Is that what you're after?
Probably everyone posting here is an expert in at least one subject - their job - to the extent that, say, they could appear as talking heads on a serious BBC programme about it without disgracing themselves. Most of those with PhDs can go further and claim to be the world's leading expert on one particular (very limited) subject. And all those experts will probably agree that being an expert doesn't entail either omniscience, or crystal ball ownership.
Bonkers.
It won't last of course as we head full course into a recession- but that won't bother the traders who just love this kind of volatility.
Now that they have torn themselves apart the survivors will have to try and heal their stab wounds and pass a massively contentious legislative programme that most of them disagree with.
She may say no election. Basic mathematics suggests she may only be saying that, the reality is likely to be different.
While I wouldn't automatically discount expert's views, it is clear that we do not live in a technocracy, nor would many of us particularly want to.
Gove was previously seen as a man of principle, a cerebral individual who brought a sense of gravitas and innate decency to proceedings.
Well, he flushed that reputation down the khazi yesterday morning. Who needs Gove now? .. damaged goods doesn't come close. Politically Gove soiled himself as his sh*t hit the fan.
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@TOPPING .. Agreed.
It led to a fall in sterling boosting against expectations investment and exports leading to a boost in economic growth. We are following the exact same trajectory at the moment.
Before the Referendum, the US at least was starting to see if it could pull out of the QE/zero interest rate trap into which the western economies have fallen, and Japan at least cannot escape. The UK was expected to follow next year. Markets were already showing doubts about this and the pile of negative-interest-rate debt continues to grow.
Brexit is seen as a long-term negative (and not just to the UK), hence markets are starting to face the prospect of many more years of near-zero interest rates. This, and Carney's stated willingness to prop things up if need be, explain the sharp recovery in the markets, especially the FTSE which includes a lot of overseas earnings anyway. Shares like low interest rates.
Sadly this means that we may also now be stuck with the negative consequences of the current financial unreality - asset price bubbles, inequality, political instability - for longer than a lot of people were hoping.
The EU referendum has given a mandate of leave.
What more of a mandate do they need?
Also a good few labour like Hoey and Stuart will I suspect abstain and may even vote with government.
Anyone thinking they can overthrow this referendum is in denial still.
The next government is going to be brutal. It could easily make the Brown administration look like a honeymoon. Do we really think she has the authority and experience to keep all those factions and egos together? There is no evidence for that as far as I can see.
A Leadsom government? You can hear the headlines already.
"... Crosby, say friends, has a low opinion of the Chancellor. He once told friends that Obsorne “could not strategise his way out of a paper bag.”"
http://reaction.life/boris-done-cuckoo-nest-plot/
A good chance for LibDems, Labour if they have a new leader or even UKIP. If Brexit pigeons coming home to roost by that point Hannan would get the fallout. Then Tory majority cut be two.
Unlikely to happen in my opinion.
Since these have a dramatic influence on the direction of the country and impact our constitution, the preferred solution without doubt needs popular support.
Most would still like to keep the passport because its easy, but after hearing the views of people well above my paygrade, I don't think it will be the end of the world to lose it, and the idea that London would lose business to Paris and Frankfurt has been banished. There was literally a massive list of reasons why London is favourable to Paris or Frankfurt outside of the EU and Paris and Frankfurt have only added passporting rights. A lot of them are also worried that without the voice of the UK in the EU, moving to the EU leaves them open to over-regulation now that we won't be there to stop or reduce it.