6/21-6/27 2016 General Election Clinton 42% Trump 40% Quinnipiac
Trump seems to have steadied the ship significantly.
I wonder if there's an analogy between Hillary's media blitz and the Brexit Project Fear campaign. There's a point where people stop listening.
If turnout is high, Trump wins. Just like Brexit did. The standard GE voters will show up for Hillary, Trump could get non regular GE voters out.
Yes that's why the currents polling is wrong, Trump will get people who haven't voted since Reagen like Brexit got people who haven't voted since Thatcher. The polls are closer than they state and Ohio and Pennsylvania are almost in the bag for Trump. You know the ex industrial wwc areas that delivered Brexit.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
Great for the new PM and CoTE - expectations low, a tax cutting budget should get things moving again.
genius - spend your way out of deficit, worked for Labour
There are three doors...behind two are new potential leaders of the labour party & the other jeremy corbyn. No matter which one you seem to pick or if you switch or stick the host always opens a door to reveal jeremy corbyn.
phew again - it's ok to back crabb.. toxic tim isn't behind him
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie · 3m3 minutes ago Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted Tim Montgomerie ن Just to clarify - my earlier Tweet (https://twitter.com/montie/status/748097431200477186 …) was an endorsement of the man, not of his leadership bid. I'm backing Boris.
Bloody Swiss - can't trust them Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September. He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
And end Tory hopes of winning the next election whenever it is held.
If the Scot Tories are the only main party leading the fight for the union to stay and No still wins they could see another surge. Enough to challenge the SNP for government?
Bloody Swiss - can't trust them Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September. He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
And end Tory hopes of winning the next election whenever it is held.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
Not sure, the original 1922 committee statement seemed to imply it could be quicker if there were fewer candidates and therefore fewer MP rounds.
Not sure that announcing a leader in August when the political media had their holidays booked forwill go down terribly well. September would be far better.
Some Labour MPs believe Corbyn clinging on to respond to Chilcot next week, apologise on behalf of Lab & call for Blair war crimes trial.
Wonder if Tony is suddenly seeing the merits of full fat, leaded, caffeinated, independence, outside the EU like the good 'ol US of A with no kow towing to foreign courts 'n all?
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
Not sure, the original 1922 committee statement seemed to imply it could be quicker if there were fewer candidates and therefore fewer MP rounds.
Not sure that announcing a leader in August when the political media had their holidays booked forwill go down terribly well. September would be far better.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
That's a baby recession. Remember, recessions are personal. The '80s recession was ~5.2%, the 90s ~2.3%. the 00s ~6.2%. If Credit Suisse and the IMF are right, it would be more like the 1961 recession (which I am too young to remember!).
'The truth is that Jeremy is not standing down. In the Labour Party our members are sovereign. There was an election held and a decision made, and 172 people cannot outweigh a quarter of a million others.
Bloody Swiss - can't trust them Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September. He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
And end Tory hopes of winning the next election whenever it is held.
Not with the current state of the Labour party...
I had no idea there was only one Labour party. I thought we were on two and counting right now?
'The truth is that Jeremy is not standing down. In the Labour Party our members are sovereign. There was an election held and a decision made, and 172 people cannot outweigh a quarter of a million others.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
Not sure, the original 1922 committee statement seemed to imply it could be quicker if there were fewer candidates and therefore fewer MP rounds.
Not sure that announcing a leader in August when the political media had their holidays booked forwill go down terribly well. September would be far better.
There's also the consideration of party members being away for their hols. OTOH these are not normal times.
'The truth is that Jeremy is not standing down. In the Labour Party our members are sovereign. There was an election held and a decision made, and 172 people cannot outweigh a quarter of a million others.
Guido Fawkes Retweeted John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 1m1 minute ago Also hearing that McDonnell has told Corbyn he wdn't automatically be on the ballot paper, so he, McDonnell, should be the left candidate.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
That's my prediction too.
This is why Brexiteers should back Theresa May. So much of parliament, the EU and the public are out to get Boris at this point, they will throw big spanners in the works in implementing Brexit. May will be looked at more neutrally, meaning most will look to work with her to make the most of things. That will have Brexit become more of a success.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
That's a baby recession. Remember, recessions are personal. The '80s recession was ~5.2%, the 90s ~2.3%. the 00s ~6.2%. If Credit Suisse and the IMF are right, it would be more like the 1961 recession (which I am too young to remember!).
It may be baby (hopefully) but it's totally unnecessary. Thanks Dave and Leavers.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
Not sure, the original 1922 committee statement seemed to imply it could be quicker if there were fewer candidates and therefore fewer MP rounds.
Not sure that announcing a leader in August when the political media had their holidays booked forwill go down terribly well. September would be far better.
There's also the consideration of party members being away for their hols. OTOH these are not normal times.
Older people don’t go away in August. Expensive, and too many children about.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
Nope - all the experts are crap - except Mervyn King - he's a Brexpert don't you know. All is good - we dominate trade with the RotW, we get single market with only 3 Freedoms, French wine will be piped in free across the channel [along with a few thousand migrants] ! Welcome to the renamed land of Brexitania.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
have just been asked by colleagues to summarise where we are. My synopsis:
1. None of the big politicians expected a Leave vote. No plans made, no clue about what to do 2. Tories still dripping blood from the large stab wounds wielded by other Tories. Now about to enter bitter leadership contest with the winner announced in nearly 3 months time - until then noone in charge making decisions 3. Labour now pouring with blood from the large stab wounds and beheadings* from their MPs and fundamentalist membership (*Pat Glass beheaded herself). Labour leadership may be decided in 3 months until they noone in charge 4. The Europeans scratching their heads asking what the fuck is it with you people (cf Dutch PM's comments earlier) - the longer that nothing goes on from the noone in charge the worse things will get
Have I missed anything out?
Charlie Falconer's untenable position
oops sorry just by mistake clicked off topic.
Well of course 99.99% of posts on here are off topic but I didn't mean to flag that one in particular.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn is bearing up well - credit where it's due.
Stalin expected to be executed, not unreasonably. However, the plotters couldn't decide whether to back Lavrenti Eagle or Vyacheslav Watson and ended up fluffing their chance.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
Not sure, the original 1922 committee statement seemed to imply it could be quicker if there were fewer candidates and therefore fewer MP rounds.
Not sure that announcing a leader in August when the political media had their holidays booked forwill go down terribly well. September would be far better.
Dare I say that having a Prime Minster in place to run the country is somewhat more important than the media's holiday timetable!
Not that the media will see it that way, of course.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Stop wobbling man. It's day 6 only.
It's just Sean being Sean. The IMF report differed from Credit Suisse's forecast by 0.2% and it was water off a duck's back.
The media don't get clicks by reporting good news, and we're not going to get good news for a while.
have just been asked by colleagues to summarise where we are. My synopsis:
1. None of the big politicians expected a Leave vote. No plans made, no clue about what to do 2. Tories still dripping blood from the large stab wounds wielded by other Tories. Now about to enter bitter leadership contest with the winner announced in nearly 3 months time - until then noone in charge making decisions 3. Labour now pouring with blood from the large stab wounds and beheadings* from their MPs and fundamentalist membership (*Pat Glass beheaded herself). Labour leadership may be decided in 3 months until they noone in charge 4. The Europeans scratching their heads asking what the fuck is it with you people (cf Dutch PM's comments earlier) - the longer that nothing goes on from the noone in charge the worse things will get
Have I missed anything out?
Very fair.
If I were being picky, I would say that you can be assured that the wonks everywhere in the civil service, BoE, FCA, and probably just about every other regulatory body in the UK will have wargamed Leave to death.
But, in the mad political world you correctly describe, no Remain politician dared ever admit it.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
That's a baby recession. Remember, recessions are personal. The '80s recession was ~5.2%, the 90s ~2.3%. the 00s ~6.2%. If Credit Suisse and the IMF are right, it would be more like the 1961 recession (which I am too young to remember!).
That's the first year.
The uncertainty - if we leave - is set to last two to three years, possibly more. And at the end of it we may discover our biggest industry, financial services, is destroyed.
So the pain will grind on, and on. This could be a Depression, not just a recession.
And you would helped cause it - feeling good about yourself?
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn is bearing up well - credit where it's due.
Stalin expected to be executed, not unreasonably. However, the plotters couldn't decide whether to back Lavrenti Eagle or Vyacheslav Watson and ended up fluffing their chance.
Just interested were they deselected or bugger off to form progressive stalin
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
That's a baby recession. Remember, recessions are personal. The '80s recession was ~5.2%, the 90s ~2.3%. the 00s ~6.2%. If Credit Suisse and the IMF are right, it would be more like the 1961 recession (which I am too young to remember!).
That's the first year.
The uncertainty - if we leave - is set to last two to three years, possibly more. And at the end of it we may discover our biggest industry, financial services, is destroyed.
So the pain will grind on, and on. This could be a Depression, not just a recession.
I think you need to go and read the IFS report. It'll help your nerves and presumably let you do some work.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
If in the words of one Labour MP some voters in the north have " voted to make their lives worse because they didn't think their lives could get better " why do you think a rerun would produce a different result ?
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
That's a baby recession. Remember, recessions are personal. The '80s recession was ~5.2%, the 90s ~2.3%. the 00s ~6.2%. If Credit Suisse and the IMF are right, it would be more like the 1961 recession (which I am too young to remember!).
That's the first year.
The uncertainty - if we leave - is set to last two to three years, possibly more. And at the end of it we may discover our biggest industry, financial services, is destroyed.
So the pain will grind on, and on. This could be a Depression, not just a recession.
Have faith Sir, things will work themselves out for the better. We're Great Britain, remember.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
We then boomed.
This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
i dont get why you are running around like a mad man. these are hardly end of days predictions and all they are is predictions. have some conviction in your beliefs and stop flip flopping!
I can understand Dave falling on his sword, as the referendum was his baby, thus triggering the Tory Party contest.
But why is there carnage in the Labour Party less than a week after the result?
Labour MPs have wanted to get rid of Corbyn ever since he was elected by Labour membership. They are just using Brexit as an excuse.
Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
Yeah, it's an excuse. For those who are using the argument that he didn't try hard enoujgh on the EU, it's worth checking out the results in each of the respective critics' areas, as this chap has done:
Yes, I know it's easier to win in Islington than Ashfield, but equally the effort put in by Islington CLP on the referendum at Jeremy's request was a great deal more than some CLPs managed at the request of their MPs.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
We then boomed.
This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
There will be a budget in October which will be used to boost the Uk - not by GO either.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
We then boomed.
This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
Remember them saying similar bollocks when the country stayed out of the Eurozone?
We then boomed.
Remember them saying similar bollocks when the country crashed out of the ERM?
We then boomed.
Sometimes received wisdom is simply bollocks. The pound (which thankfully we kept) has fallen which will be a natural shock absorber and help incentivise exports and discourage imports somewhat. And life will go on as before.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
We then boomed.
This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
Relax. People will still buy books. Books and films do well in a recession.
BTW, any news on when the film of The Ice Twins might be happening?
As I said earlier, BoAMLs is to 0.3%. I suspect that and the CS number set the broad range. The sunny uplands look far away but perhaps one can console oneself by noting that its always darkest just before dawn. Perhaps.
If in the words of one Labour MP some voters in the north have " voted to make their lives worse because they didn't think their lives could get better " why do you think a rerun would produce a different result ?
Because of Regrexit and because many voted Leave as a protest, not realising it might happen and there'd be consequences.
Nothing will get better, but there's worse slowly and worse fast.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
We then boomed.
This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
On a brighter note we've just pocketed some extra dough on a deal because the £ has sunk compared to when we booked the order. It's not all doom and gloom, and it's not all about London (surely last week proved that if anything). London is important but it and its industries (which are very important and we must do all we can to protect I accept) seem to have forgotten they are actually part of the same country as Doncaster, Sunderland, and Swansea.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
Not sure, the original 1922 committee statement seemed to imply it could be quicker if there were fewer candidates and therefore fewer MP rounds.
Not sure that announcing a leader in August when the political media had their holidays booked forwill go down terribly well. September would be far better.
Erm, fuck the media, we've a country to run...
And there's a prime minister and government in place to do just that.
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn is bearing up well - credit where it's due.
Stalin expected to be executed, not unreasonably. However, the plotters couldn't decide whether to back Lavrenti Eagle or Vyacheslav Watson and ended up fluffing their chance.
Just interested were they deselected or bugger off to form progressive stalin
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
This is why Boris is doomed. He will own this recession. And I think the economic pain will be very apparent by early September.
He could end up one of the most hated men in the country.
That's a baby recession. Remember, recessions are personal. The '80s recession was ~5.2%, the 90s ~2.3%. the 00s ~6.2%. If Credit Suisse and the IMF are right, it would be more like the 1961 recession (which I am too young to remember!).
That's the first year.
The uncertainty - if we leave - is set to last two to three years, possibly more. And at the end of it we may discover our biggest industry, financial services, is destroyed.
So the pain will grind on, and on. This could be a Depression, not just a recession.
And you would helped cause it - feeling good about yourself?
#Bridiot
Yep, I was possibly a Bridiot. But both sides lied to me - see the EU Army which was "never gonna happen".
By 9pm I might feel differently, tho
What difference does an EU army make to your standard of living, the value of your savings, the price of your property or your personal security?
So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
Boris would be committing career suicide if he agreed to that. The Tories would lose the City, whoever loses the City of London loses the nation, in the end. As Charles the First discovered.
Oh yes. But giving up the chance of full access to the single market for everyone except the financial services industry and to have significant controls over immigration just to save some City bankers; how will that play?
I can understand Dave falling on his sword, as the referendum was his baby, thus triggering the Tory Party contest.
But why is there carnage in the Labour Party less than a week after the result?
Labour MPs have wanted to get rid of Corbyn ever since he was elected by Labour membership. They are just using Brexit as an excuse.
Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
Yeah, it's an excuse. For those who are using the argument that he didn't try hard enoujgh on the EU, it's worth checking out the results in each of the respective critics' areas, as this chap has done:
Yes, I know it's easier to win in Islington than Ashfield, but equally the effort put in by Islington CLP on the referendum at Jeremy's request was a great deal more than some CLPs managed at the request of their MPs.
As I pointed out last week. Normally Keith Vaz's constituency office is a hive of activity and festooned with posters and billboards. Last Wednesday there were none to be seen and the office lights were off.
I didn't see much effort fom Jon Ashworth either, though Liz Kendall as the 3rd Leicester MP made a decent effort.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
I will be happy to accept the £3500 grand that would make me on UKIP most seats. I applaud this idea.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
We then boomed.
This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
i dont get why you are running around like a mad man. these are hardly end of days predictions and all they are is predictions. have some conviction in your beliefs and stop flip flopping!
Yes it's probably just 'experts' making these predictions and we all know that they can be ignored with impunity.
I can understand Dave falling on his sword, as the referendum was his baby, thus triggering the Tory Party contest.
But why is there carnage in the Labour Party less than a week after the result?
Labour MPs have wanted to get rid of Corbyn ever since he was elected by Labour membership. They are just using Brexit as an excuse.
Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
Yeah, it's an excuse. For those who are using the argument that he didn't try hard enoujgh on the EU, it's worth checking out the results in each of the respective critics' areas, as this chap has done:
Yes, I know it's easier to win in Islington than Ashfield, but equally the effort put in by Islington CLP on the referendum at Jeremy's request was a great deal more than some CLPs managed at the request of their MPs.
And then he went and voted Leave...
(I could believe he spoilt his ballot paper and voted for both, just so he could look his critics in the eye and say he voted to Remain...little white lie)
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.
/smugmode
But your home could drop 20% in value. Or more.
Is it bollocks....that was one of the most outrageous of all the predictions. It took the world economy collapsing , banks going bust across the world etc etc etc, for house prices in the UK to get even close to falling that amount.
Most of the expert I have heard since the vote have said much more likely this stunts future house price growth, but demand is too high and supply too short especially in London for that kind of fall.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.
/smugmode
But your home could drop 20% in value. Or more.
I hate arguing with people like I'm some Pollyanna. Value doesn't matter until you actually trade out. But I do appreciate that some people bank on perpetual house price inflation, and I'm sorry for those who would be affected.
However, the fundamentals haven't changed. We have a growing number of households, where demand exceeds supply. The country could do with a housing market like the 90s, even if individuals feel differently about it .
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Is this the 4pm Sean T and the more lubricated 9pm will be more relaxed?
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
We then boomed.
This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
Relax. People will still buy books. Books and films do well in a recession.
BTW, any news on when the film of The Ice Twins might be happening?
They've got a decent script and are seeking a director. A friend of mine wants to take the option off them and make it as a British movie, it depends whether the Americans renew
So no movie as yet, but still plans afoot
Thanks and good luck. If you go indy UK, the Good Lady Wifi is a dab hand at film financing...
I can understand Dave falling on his sword, as the referendum was his baby, thus triggering the Tory Party contest.
But why is there carnage in the Labour Party less than a week after the result?
Labour MPs have wanted to get rid of Corbyn ever since he was elected by Labour membership. They are just using Brexit as an excuse.
Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
Yeah, it's an excuse. For those who are using the argument that he didn't try hard enoujgh on the EU, it's worth checking out the results in each of the respective critics' areas, as this chap has done:
Yes, I know it's easier to win in Islington than Ashfield, but equally the effort put in by Islington CLP on the referendum at Jeremy's request was a great deal more than some CLPs managed at the request of their MPs.
I had to put my MP on ignore such was his pro EU bomardment, Remain still got thrashed apparently was having problems getting volunteers.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?
We then boomed.
This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
Relax. People will still buy books. Books and films do well in a recession.
BTW, any news on when the film of The Ice Twins might be happening?
They've got a decent script and are seeking a director. A friend of mine wants to take the option off them and make it as a British movie, it depends whether the Americans renew
So no movie as yet, but still plans afoot
Good luck! The $ cost of making a movie in the UK is at a record low thanks to Brexit
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
Anyone who based their EU referendum vote on a few quarters GDP figures didn't really understand what the vote was all about. Seems that includes you!
Of COURSE it will be worse for a bit, that's not news.
In the long run we will be better off out of it. That was what guided my cross, my lip's not going all wobbly because of a few economists predicting the fairly obvious
(Although I think the +2.3% was always optimistic frankly...global economy heading for a slowdown anyway)
Comments
Edited extra bit: of "Yes" which amounts to the same thing.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/07/alastair-meeks-on-how-conservative-leavers-could-gift-labour-the-next-election/
'The truth is that Jeremy is not standing down. In the Labour Party our members are sovereign. There was an election held and a decision made, and 172 people cannot outweigh a quarter of a million others.
It would risk sending the worst possible message we could send as a party to the electorate - that Labour does not respect the democratic process.'
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/06/jeremy-corbyn-not-standing-down-172-labour-mps-cannot-drown-out-democracy
Clash are on the B side
gets coat
"Lets nominate Corbyn"
"Lets have an EU referendum".
So he's very relevant.
https://twitter.com/roddymansfield/status/748169754133794816
Well of course 99.99% of posts on here are off topic but I didn't mean to flag that one in particular.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/22/the-next-recession/
We then boomed.
/smugmode
Not that the media will see it that way, of course.
The media don't get clicks by reporting good news, and we're not going to get good news for a while.
If I were being picky, I would say that you can be assured that the wonks everywhere in the civil service, BoE, FCA, and probably just about every other regulatory body in the UK will have wargamed Leave to death.
But, in the mad political world you correctly describe, no Remain politician dared ever admit it.
Absolutely "almost in the bag for Trump"
#Bridiot
http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-gearing-up-to-strike-trade-deals-with-britain/
http://beestonweek.blogspot.co.uk/
Yes, I know it's easier to win in Islington than Ashfield, but equally the effort put in by Islington CLP on the referendum at Jeremy's request was a great deal more than some CLPs managed at the request of their MPs.
Were you wronger than Kellner?
Welcome to the EICIPM club of failed pundits, another new member is TSE you will like him.
We then boomed.
Remember them saying similar bollocks when the country crashed out of the ERM?
We then boomed.
Sometimes received wisdom is simply bollocks. The pound (which thankfully we kept) has fallen which will be a natural shock absorber and help incentivise exports and discourage imports somewhat. And life will go on as before.
BTW, any news on when the film of The Ice Twins might be happening?
Nothing will get better, but there's worse slowly and worse fast.
Brytyjczycy
Just brilliant - what a language! Cannot help but admire that
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/anti-corbyn-labour-mps-plan-breakaway-group-in-parliament?CMP=share_btn_tw
I didn't see much effort fom Jon Ashworth either, though Liz Kendall as the 3rd Leicester MP made a decent effort.
Probably dis-information previously...
At least Ed must be having an inner chuckle to himself. He looks better by the hour.
(I could believe he spoilt his ballot paper and voted for both, just so he could look his critics in the eye and say he voted to Remain...little white lie)
23rd June: 3481
Today: 3413
Most of the expert I have heard since the vote have said much more likely this stunts future house price growth, but demand is too high and supply too short especially in London for that kind of fall.
However, the fundamentals haven't changed. We have a growing number of households, where demand exceeds supply. The country could do with a housing market like the 90s, even if individuals feel differently about it
Of COURSE it will be worse for a bit, that's not news.
In the long run we will be better off out of it. That was what guided my cross, my lip's not going all wobbly because of a few economists predicting the fairly obvious
(Although I think the +2.3% was always optimistic frankly...global economy heading for a slowdown anyway)