The Scottish economy is completely integrated with the UK economy. Any change in that will cause disruptions approximately 8x what the UK is facing at the moment. Given the facts of history and geography there is no way to avoid that.
The economic arguments are clearly significant. However if the EU referendum taught us anything, apart from the "interesting disturbance in polling accuracy", it is that financial arguments, however solidly based sometimes do not always cut through. "Experts" Hhmmm ....
Wales and Cornwall voted LEAVE despite substantial largesse from the EU. They wanted out and they didn't care. Scotland and the Union may go the same way.
Substantial largess from the EU my ARSE!
The UK as a whole is a net contributor to Brussels coffers!
Remember:
There is no such thing as "EU money"! There is only taxpayers' money!
If you really believe that I suggest you relocate to somewhere where you can live without any requirement to share your money with the state institutions (council, GLA, UK and EU) with which, by living here, you de facto agree to yield a proportion of your income/wealth in return for the services they provide.
Anyway, there is no such thing as "your money", it comes from your employer (or bank, or deceased relatives, or wherever)... lol
Employers get profits from people buying their products/using their services, no?
Yes, so money goes round in a circle, or doesn't, in which case we are all in trouble.
My last point was only 10% serious.
I know that you like your point, but honestly it seems rather trite to me!
I was actually paraphrasing Maggie
"Let us never forget this fundamental truth: the State has no source of money other than money which people earn themselves. If the State wishes to spend more it can do so only by borrowing your savings or by taxing you more. It is no good thinking that someone else will pay – that ‘someone else’ is you. There is no such thing as public money; there is only taxpayers’ money."
He or she makes good points, but it's not a binary choice between the fears being hogwash and the worst fears being 100% certain. No-one is claiming that, even in the worst case, the City is doomed by Brexit (well, actually a senior banker friend of mine did say that). What people are saying is that the City will be severely damaged, especially if financial passporting is not available.
Travelgall distils into some succinct bullet points a persuasive case that London is still well positioned, with or without the EU and passporting.
I know little about the world of city finance, so it is tempting to defer.
I do however mix with a lot of City bods and it is true that a) most of them are strongly pro-EU and b) most of them genuinely believe that leaving the EU will significantly damage the City's position in world finance.
So now I am left wondering how to square these two seemingly contradictory positions?
Not contradictory really. We would be damaged badly in a few specific areas, but probably unaffected in most others and may even gain in some. Overall with a strong government stance the City could prosper, though I imagine fully out would see the bank levy go away.
Liam Fox hoped to be in a stronger position right now. He realises he has no chance of making the final ballot and his weak hand is only going to get weaker from now on.
Theresa would be silly to offer anything concrete.
Unless there's some kind of last minute surprise entry (I'm still holding out for Hammond!) it'll be May v Boris, with both teams hoping to face Crabb - rather than each other - when it goes out to the members.
If Fox is realising that a run is futile, then it rather suggests a number of the other campaigns won't get off the ground too. We could see a new PM in rather short order.
I'm really looking forward to those Boris v May hustings.
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
More evidence for my view that Boris is the pro-EU candidate and Theresa the anti.
Probably so, however Theresa 'Nasty Party' May, champion of the Snooper's Charter ? There must be a better option.
I share your concerns about her - although from my perspective the whole thing is a matter of relative evils.
My point is that, whilst if you go onto ConHome you will see lots of Brexiters banging on about how they must vote for Boris as a "true leaver" with Theresa tainted by her treachery of having (quietly) backed remain, I firmly believe the opposite is the case.
Boris is actually by instinct a remainer (I refer you to a decade of his previous utterings and the views of all his close family), took a chance on backing leave for tactical reasons of self-interest only, thought remain would win, wanted remain to win, probably even tried a little bit to help remain win, and will do his best to secure an outcome as pro-EU as possible, conceding free movement etc.
Theresa is by instinct a leaver, but as home secretary could hardly break with her PM, expected remain to win and wanted to keep her job, and will probably do her best to secure a deal much more to the liking of the leavers, particularly those concerned about free movement.
So it's going to be a very interesting campaign, since very many of the punters are at the moment clearly on the wrong sides!
Remainers like Truss and Soames starting to come out for Boris, and Leavers like Fox toying with May, are clear clues that the parliamentary party at least sees where the land lies. We shall just have to see whether Tory members will be able to work all this out for themselves!
Wouldn't it be amazing if, in the privacy of the polling booth, Boris voted Remain whereas both Corbyn and May voted Leave? I'd say this is quite probably what happened!
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
If Corbyn wins, progressive politics in this country is dead.
The poor, the vulnerable and the working class are screwed...
I can't resist. It's time for the eternal verities to be reaffirmed. Let's hear from the old crowd favourite, M. Machiavelli:
"We must bear in mind, then, that there is nothing more difficult and dangerous, or more doubtful of success, than an attempt to introduce a new order of things in any state. For the innovator has for enemies all those who derived advantages from the old order of things, whilst those who expect to be benefited by the new institutions will be but lukewarm defenders. This indifference arises in part from fear of their adversaries who were favoured by the existing laws, and partly from the incredulity of men who have no faith in anything new that is not the result of well-established experience. Hence it is that, whenever the opponents of the new order of things have the opportunity to attack it, they will do it with the zeal of partisans, whilst the others defend it but feebly, so that it is dangerous to rely upon the latter.''
Honest question. Is the business that is totally reliant on the passport sufficient to get banks seriously thinking of moving the entire shop, or just that part that requires the passport?
On the same lines, could we see a bunch of brass nameplates sprouting in Paris and Frankfurt for businesses nominally based there, though all the work is actually done in London?
Also, how would this affect the Lloyds insurance market? Would EU rules prevent EU companies buying insurance there? If they do, can EU insurance markets fill the gap fast enough? What happens to existing insurance polices EU companies have at Lloyds?
I can't resist. It's time for the eternal verities to be reaffirmed. Let's hear from the old crowd favourite, M. Machiavelli:
"We must bear in mind, then, that there is nothing more difficult and dangerous, or more doubtful of success, than an attempt to introduce a new order of things in any state. For the innovator has for enemies all those who derived advantages from the old order of things, whilst those who expect to be benefited by the new institutions will be but lukewarm defenders. This indifference arises in part from fear of their adversaries who were favoured by the existing laws, and partly from the incredulity of men who have no faith in anything new that is not the result of well-established experience. Hence it is that, whenever the opponents of the new order of things have the opportunity to attack it, they will do it with the zeal of partisans, whilst the others defend it but feebly, so that it is dangerous to rely upon the latter.''
We over-use the word 'genius', but Machiavelli was a genius. His advice doesn't age.
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
More evidence for my view that Boris is the pro-EU candidate and Theresa the anti.
Probably so, however Theresa 'Nasty Party' May, champion of the Snooper's Charter ? There must be a better option.
I share your concerns about her - although from my perspective the whole thing is a matter of relative evils.
My point is that, whilst if you go onto ConHome you will see lots of Brexiters banging on about how they must vote for Boris as a "true leaver" with Theresa tainted by her treachery of having (quietly) backed remain, I firmly believe the opposite is the case.
Boris is actually by instinct a remainer (I refer you to a decade of his previous utterings and the views of all his close family), took a chance on backing leave for tactical reasons of self-interest only, thought remain would win, wanted remain to win, probably even tried a little bit to help remain win, and will do his best to secure an outcome as pro-EU as possible, conceding free movement etc.
Theresa is by instinct a leaver, but as home secretary could hardly break with her PM, expected remain to win and wanted to keep her job, and will probably do her best to secure a deal much more to the liking of the leavers, particularly those concerned about free movement.
So it's going to be a very interesting campaign, since very many of the punters are at the moment clearly on the wrong sides!
Remainers like Truss and Soames starting to come out for Boris, and Leavers like Fox toying with May, are clear clues that the parliamentary party at least sees where the land lies. We shall just have to see whether Tory members will be able to work all this out for themselves!
It may also tie in with the Nixon goes to China theory - Boris can afford to 'betray' leave more than Theresa can afford to been seen ignoring the result - so remainer tories flock to Boris thinking they can get him signed on for EEA lite. Which will drive leavers into May
It really isn't easy to fit a game of cricket in in this country is it?
Everything is on hold. Even the humiliation of the English football team by Iceland was brushed over to a great degree. It would have led the news in almost every other time period, for at least a day.
As David Davis said on Daily Politics today "We're currently producing more history than we can consume"
Liam Fox hoped to be in a stronger position right now. He realises he has no chance of making the final ballot and his weak hand is only going to get weaker from now on.
Theresa would be silly to offer anything concrete.
Unless there's some kind of last minute surprise entry (I'm still holding out for Hammond!) it'll be May v Boris, with both teams hoping to face Crabb - rather than each other - when it goes out to the members.
If Fox is realising that a run is futile, then it rather suggests a number of the other campaigns won't get off the ground too. We could see a new PM in rather short order.
I'm really looking forward to those Boris v May hustings.
It's really not time for an outsider, is it? It's not 2005 again, where we were choosing a future leader to develop the Party, the winner here will be straight in as PM with a lot on her plate.
Better for everyone that we have no more than 3 or 4 candidates, can be whittled down to two in a week and the members can have their say next month. Job done by August.
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
If Corbyn wins, progressive politics in this country is dead.
The poor, the vulnerable and the working class are screwed...
And surely the Oppostion needs to be holding HMG to account properly in the present circumstances? It is a proper function of Opposition, and rightly so. However, our Opposition is making your average student union look like Roosevelt meeting Churchill in comparison.
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
Purely from a financial point of view, it would be better if Watson did resign to stand. That would enable the two elections, for leader and deputy leader, to be run concurrently rather than one after the other. Party elections aren't cheap, particularly Labour's with its huge numbers of 'supporters' as well as members. Three ballots in 18 months will be a strain on the finances; one Labour could do without if there's a GE in the offing too.
have just been asked by colleagues to summarise where we are. My synopsis:
1. None of the big politicians expected a Leave vote. No plans made, no clue about what to do 2. Tories still dripping blood from the large stab wounds wielded by other Tories. Now about to enter bitter leadership contest with the winner announced in nearly 3 months time - until then noone in charge making decisions 3. Labour now pouring with blood from the large stab wounds and beheadings* from their MPs and fundamentalist membership (*Pat Glass beheaded herself). Labour leadership may be decided in 3 months until they noone in charge 4. The Europeans scratching their heads asking what the fuck is it with you people (cf Dutch PM's comments earlier) - the longer that nothing goes on from the noone in charge the worse things will get
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
If Corbyn wins, progressive politics in this country is dead.
The poor, the vulnerable and the working class are screwed...
And surely the Oppostion needs to be holding HMG to account properly in the present circumstances? It is a proper function of Opposition, and rightly so. However, our Opposition is making your average student union look like Roosevelt meeting Churchill in comparison.
Well, we don't really have a government, so it's probably OK not to have an opposition. It's not as if the Queen's Speech contained anything particularly interesting.
Have they really managed a major but still botched coup, leaving the vast bulk of Labour MPs in a position of having registered no confidence in their leader?
Guido Fawkes Retweeted John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 1m1 minute ago Also hearing that McDonnell has told Corbyn he wdn't automatically be on the ballot paper, so he, McDonnell, should be the left candidate.
Liam Fox hoped to be in a stronger position right now. He realises he has no chance of making the final ballot and his weak hand is only going to get weaker from now on.
Theresa would be silly to offer anything concrete.
Unless there's some kind of last minute surprise entry (I'm still holding out for Hammond!) it'll be May v Boris, with both teams hoping to face Crabb - rather than each other - when it goes out to the members.
If Fox is realising that a run is futile, then it rather suggests a number of the other campaigns won't get off the ground too. We could see a new PM in rather short order.
I'm really looking forward to those Boris v May hustings.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
Have they really managed a major but still botched coup, leaving the vast bulk of Labour MPs in a position of having registered no confidence in their leader?
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
If Corbyn wins, progressive politics in this country is dead.
The poor, the vulnerable and the working class are screwed...
And surely the Oppostion needs to be holding HMG to account properly in the present circumstances? It is a proper function of Opposition, and rightly so. However, our Opposition is making your average student union look like Roosevelt meeting Churchill in comparison.
Well, we don't really have a government, so it's probably OK not to have an opposition. It's not as if the Queen's Speech contained anything particularly interesting.
Just as well. There's space for all the "stuff" that will need discussing.
Have they really managed a major but still botched coup, leaving the vast bulk of Labour MPs in a position of having registered no confidence in their leader?
Yes, and he needs to fill his shadow cabinet with a bunch of these traitors.
have just been asked by colleagues to summarise where we are. My synopsis:
1. None of the big politicians expected a Leave vote. No plans made, no clue about what to do 2. Tories still dripping blood from the large stab wounds wielded by other Tories. Now about to enter bitter leadership contest with the winner announced in nearly 3 months time - until then noone in charge making decisions 3. Labour now pouring with blood from the large stab wounds and beheadings* from their MPs and fundamentalist membership (*Pat Glass beheaded herself). Labour leadership may be decided in 3 months until they noone in charge 4. The Europeans scratching their heads asking what the fuck is it with you people (cf Dutch PM's comments earlier) - the longer that nothing goes on from the noone in charge the worse things will get
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
If Corbyn wins, progressive politics in this country is dead.
The poor, the vulnerable and the working class are screwed...
Have they really managed a major but still botched coup, leaving the vast bulk of Labour MPs in a position of having registered no confidence in their leader?
I hope they're deselected. The lot of them.
Can we get individual CLP markets. Who will be the first to go?
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn is bearing up well - credit where it's due.
Guido Fawkes Retweeted John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 1m1 minute ago Also hearing that McDonnell has told Corbyn he wdn't automatically be on the ballot paper, so he, McDonnell, should be the left candidate.
have just been asked by colleagues to summarise where we are. My synopsis:
1. None of the big politicians expected a Leave vote. No plans made, no clue about what to do 2. Tories still dripping blood from the large stab wounds wielded by other Tories. Now about to enter bitter leadership contest with the winner announced in nearly 3 months time - until then noone in charge making decisions 3. Labour now pouring with blood from the large stab wounds and beheadings* from their MPs and fundamentalist membership (*Pat Glass beheaded herself). Labour leadership may be decided in 3 months until they noone in charge 4. The Europeans scratching their heads asking what the fuck is it with you people (cf Dutch PM's comments earlier) - the longer that nothing goes on from the noone in charge the worse things will get
Have I missed anything out?
Your point #4 is a bit too simplistic. There are at least three European blocs at the moment. Sample positions for each:
- "GTFO Rosbifs, don't let the door bang you on the arse on your way out" - "OMG wt-OK, let's at least sort the trade deal out" - "Please don't go! You're abandoning us to the tender mercies of the Frogs and Russkis".
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn is bearing up well - credit where it's due.
Question. Who gets custody of the "Labour" name? The Progress wing or the Momentum wing?
Divorce is now inevitable - just a question of when.
It stays with the Corbyn side. Not that it matters. Labour is now finished as a serious political party.
But where do the voters go?
All the parties in the UK seem damaged goods apart from probably the SNP.
Britain seems absolutely ripe right now for a new political force to emerge. Could that be "the Boris Party" if that's what the Tory Party plumps for as leader in September. Or something else?
FWIW, I'm backing Boris for Leader. Sympathies with May, but she's just not box office, and the Tories frankly need to engage bigger and wider to retain power. Boris proved in London he can do that, twice over, and I think he'll also engage with folk who have basically zero interest in politics and don't bother voting. Whether he'll be any good is another matter, but it's all about winning power first and foremost...
have just been asked by colleagues to summarise where we are. My synopsis:
1. None of the big politicians expected a Leave vote. No plans made, no clue about what to do 2. Tories still dripping blood from the large stab wounds wielded by other Tories. Now about to enter bitter leadership contest with the winner announced in nearly 3 months time - until then noone in charge making decisions 3. Labour now pouring with blood from the large stab wounds and beheadings* from their MPs and fundamentalist membership (*Pat Glass beheaded herself). Labour leadership may be decided in 3 months until they noone in charge 4. The Europeans scratching their heads asking what the fuck is it with you people (cf Dutch PM's comments earlier) - the longer that nothing goes on from the noone in charge the worse things will get
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
Not sure, the original 1922 committee statement seemed to imply it could be quicker if there were fewer candidates and therefore fewer MP rounds.
Surely if Watson challenges Corbyn, he'd have to resign the Deputy Leadership?
"Honourable thing...", and all that.
Nick? Views?
Don't think so, really, any more than Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader because a vote of no confidence. If you're elected to something, you stay there until you either choose to resign or someone else is elected to replace you - what else you or others may be doing in the meantime doesn't affect it.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
What's all this "we"?
The Labour members, who would prefer a Tory government to a Labour party "led" by anyone but Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour is now finished. later this year or early next, the Tories will win the biggest majority that any party has won since the war and will then dump on millions of ordinary people from a very great height.
The Scottish economy is completely integrated with the UK economy. Any change in that will cause disruptions approximately 8x what the UK is facing at the moment. Given the facts of history and geography there is no way to avoid that.
The economic arguments are clearly significant. However if the EU referendum taught us anything, apart from the "interesting disturbance in polling accuracy", it is that financial arguments, however solidly based sometimes do not always cut through. "Experts" Hhmmm ....
Wales and Cornwall voted LEAVE despite substantial largesse from the EU. They wanted out and they didn't care. Scotland and the Union may go the same way.
I'm not sure who would make the No case anyway. The Scottish Conservatives and.... anyone?
If the Scot Tories are the only main party leading the fight for the union to stay and No still wins they could see another surge. Enough to challenge the SNP for government?
Liam Fox hoped to be in a stronger position right now. He realises he has no chance of making the final ballot and his weak hand is only going to get weaker from now on.
Theresa would be silly to offer anything concrete.
Unless there's some kind of last minute surprise entry (I'm still holding out for Hammond!) it'll be May v Boris, with both teams hoping to face Crabb - rather than each other - when it goes out to the members.
If Fox is realising that a run is futile, then it rather suggests a number of the other campaigns won't get off the ground too. We could see a new PM in rather short order.
I'm really looking forward to those Boris v May hustings.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
I'm really not sure that is tenable. Just get it over and done with, guys...
A group of Labour MPs have just taken part in a secret ballot for the leadership. They are all perfect logicians -- if a conclusion can be logically deduced, they will do it instantly. No one knows how they voted.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
Liam Fox hoped to be in a stronger position right now. He realises he has no chance of making the final ballot and his weak hand is only going to get weaker from now on.
Theresa would be silly to offer anything concrete.
Unless there's some kind of last minute surprise entry (I'm still holding out for Hammond!) it'll be May v Boris, with both teams hoping to face Crabb - rather than each other - when it goes out to the members.
If Fox is realising that a run is futile, then it rather suggests a number of the other campaigns won't get off the ground too. We could see a new PM in rather short order.
I'm really looking forward to those Boris v May hustings.
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn is bearing up well - credit where it's due.
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
bloody splitter that stalin.
Stalin ordered the execution of the first few folk to report the opening of Operation Barbarossa. This is where we get the phrase "don't shoot the messenger" .
So, would an "independent" Scotland within the EU be a net contributor, or a net recipient of taxpayers' EU money?
*innocent face*
Apparently, Scotland would be the poorest country in Europe the World but still be paying the highest per capita contribution to the EU budget.
Unionism is rarely consistent.
Looking at the stats, Scotland would slot in nicely between Croatia and Slovakia in terms of population and somewhere like 8th in terms of GDP per capita.
.....
4) What exactly would Scotland be joining/staying in? The EU status quo seems unlikely.
a) It might splinter a bit. (Greece? Sweden/Denmark?) b) It might implode (not much fun getting in a lifeboat with a great big hole in it) c) It might be a proper United States of Europe. But in that case Scots may wish (or they may not - it's their view to hold not mine) to reflect that they would be swapping being an internally self governing (to quite an extent) province of a country they make up 8% of to being a province in a newly minted multi national (but heavily German influenced) entity which they would make up about 1.1% of, which is about the weight Leeds has in the UK.
Not saying they can't do it, before I'm leapt upon, but food for thought.
Scotland could have more power to exercise from Edinburgh under a Brexited UK than it would as an independent nation in the EU!
Jamie McGeever Verified account @ReutersJamie Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
Great for the new PM and CoTE - expectations low, a tax cutting budget should get things moving again.
A group of Labour MPs have just taken part in a secret ballot for the leadership. They are all perfect logicians -- if a conclusion can be logically deduced, they will do it instantly. No one knows how they voted.
Can the CLP find the traitors ?
Three logicians walk into a bar.
"Can I get you fine gentlemen all a drink?" asks the barman.
"I don't know" says the first "I don't know" says the second
Corbyn has certainly gone up in my estimation over the past few days.
Has any politician ever been put under so much stress and resisted?
Churchill, 1940
Sir, you're no Winston Churchill
Stalin, 1941?
How many motions of no confidence did Churchill win? I know he won two in 1942.
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn is bearing up well - credit where it's due.
Liam Fox hoped to be in a stronger position right now. He realises he has no chance of making the final ballot and his weak hand is only going to get weaker from now on.
Theresa would be silly to offer anything concrete.
Unless there's some kind of last minute surprise entry (I'm still holding out for Hammond!) it'll be May v Boris, with both teams hoping to face Crabb - rather than each other - when it goes out to the members.
If Fox is realising that a run is futile, then it rather suggests a number of the other campaigns won't get off the ground too. We could see a new PM in rather short order.
I'm really looking forward to those Boris v May hustings.
Surely it'll take just as long with 2 as with, say, 6? All that'll happen is that the members will get slightly longer to choose. The result will still be announced in early September.
I'm really not sure that is tenable. Just get it over and done with, guys...
Damn right, I want my winnings from Cameron to go in 2016!
phew again - it's ok to back crabb.. toxic tim isn't behind him
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie · 3m3 minutes ago Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted Tim Montgomerie ن Just to clarify - my earlier Tweet (https://twitter.com/montie/status/748097431200477186 …) was an endorsement of the man, not of his leadership bid. I'm backing Boris.
So, would an "independent" Scotland within the EU be a net contributor, or a net recipient of taxpayers' EU money?
*innocent face*
Apparently, Scotland would be the poorest country in Europe the World but still be paying the highest per capita contribution to the EU budget.
Unionism is rarely consistent.
Looking at the stats, Scotland would slot in nicely between Croatia and Slovakia in terms of population and somewhere like 8th in terms of GDP per capita.
.....
4) What exactly would Scotland be joining/staying in? The EU status quo seems unlikely.
a) It might splinter a bit. (Greece? Sweden/Denmark?) b) It might implode (not much fun getting in a lifeboat with a great big hole in it) c) It might be a proper United States of Europe. But in that case Scots may wish (or they may not - it's their view to hold not mine) to reflect that they would be swapping being an internally self governing (to quite an extent) province of a country they make up 8% of to being a province in a newly minted multi national (but heavily German influenced) entity which they would make up about 1.1% of, which is about the weight Leeds has in the UK.
Not saying they can't do it, before I'm leapt upon, but food for thought.
Scotland could have more power to exercise from Edinburgh under a Brexited UK than it would as an independent nation in the EU!
Yes. Very true depending on levels of devolution in the UK and integration in a USE.
have just been asked by colleagues to summarise where we are. My synopsis:
1. None of the big politicians expected a Leave vote. No plans made, no clue about what to do 2. Tories still dripping blood from the large stab wounds wielded by other Tories. Now about to enter bitter leadership contest with the winner announced in nearly 3 months time - until then noone in charge making decisions 3. Labour now pouring with blood from the large stab wounds and beheadings* from their MPs and fundamentalist membership (*Pat Glass beheaded herself). Labour leadership may be decided in 3 months until they noone in charge 4. The Europeans scratching their heads asking what the fuck is it with you people (cf Dutch PM's comments earlier) - the longer that nothing goes on from the noone in charge the worse things will get
Have I missed anything out?
4. We went for a renegotiation. The Europeans told us to "fuck off". Cameron was too polite to take offence. The voters were not. They told the EU to "fuck off yerselves". We are now taking it to the car park, with Frau Merkel shouting "leave it, Jean-Claude, they're not worth it..."
Question. Who gets custody of the "Labour" name? The Progress wing or the Momentum wing?
Divorce is now inevitable - just a question of when.
It stays with the Corbyn side. Not that it matters. Labour is now finished as a serious political party.
But where do the voters go?
All the parties in the UK seem damaged goods apart from probably the SNP.
Britain seems absolutely ripe right now for a new political force to emerge. Could that be "the Boris Party" if that's what the Tory Party plumps for as leader in September. Or something else?
FWIW, I'm backing Boris for Leader. Sympathies with May, but she's just not box office, and the Tories frankly need to engage bigger and wider to retain power. Boris proved in London he can do that, twice over, and I think he'll also engage with folk who have basically zero interest in politics and don't bother voting. Whether he'll be any good is another matter, but it's all about winning power first and foremost...
Comments
"Let us never forget this fundamental truth: the State has no source of money other than money which people earn themselves. If the State wishes to spend more it can do so only by borrowing your savings or by taxing you more. It is no good thinking that someone else will pay – that ‘someone else’ is you. There is no such thing as public money; there is only taxpayers’ money."
- speech to Conference, 14/10/83
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvz8tg4MVpA
I am told GMB and Unite both about to come out in support of @jeremycorbyn. & they call on Labour MPs to behave as effective opposition
Ho Ho HOOOOO!!!!!
I'm really looking forward to those Boris v May hustings.
But I note that we're back where we were a year ago that the ABC faction can't make up their minds who or what they actually support. If that continues, Corbyn will win - indeed, I don't see why the ABC side would waste our time with the re-run. If they come up someone and they've something to say other than "I am not Corbyn", we'll have a listen.
My point is that, whilst if you go onto ConHome you will see lots of Brexiters banging on about how they must vote for Boris as a "true leaver" with Theresa tainted by her treachery of having (quietly) backed remain, I firmly believe the opposite is the case.
Boris is actually by instinct a remainer (I refer you to a decade of his previous utterings and the views of all his close family), took a chance on backing leave for tactical reasons of self-interest only, thought remain would win, wanted remain to win, probably even tried a little bit to help remain win, and will do his best to secure an outcome as pro-EU as possible, conceding free movement etc.
Theresa is by instinct a leaver, but as home secretary could hardly break with her PM, expected remain to win and wanted to keep her job, and will probably do her best to secure a deal much more to the liking of the leavers, particularly those concerned about free movement.
So it's going to be a very interesting campaign, since very many of the punters are at the moment clearly on the wrong sides!
Remainers like Truss and Soames starting to come out for Boris, and Leavers like Fox toying with May, are clear clues that the parliamentary party at least sees where the land lies. We shall just have to see whether Tory members will be able to work all this out for themselves!
Wouldn't it be amazing if, in the privacy of the polling booth, Boris voted Remain whereas both Corbyn and May voted Leave? I'd say this is quite probably what happened!
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie · 5m5 minutes ago
I understand that @LiamFoxMP is now not likely to stand for Tory leadership and will back Theresa May. Key Fox supporters gone to Crabb
The poor, the vulnerable and the working class are screwed...
"We must bear in mind, then, that there is nothing more difficult and dangerous, or more doubtful of success, than an attempt to introduce a new order of things in any state. For the innovator has for enemies all those who derived advantages from the old order of things, whilst those who expect to be benefited by the new institutions will be but lukewarm defenders. This indifference arises in part from fear of their adversaries who were favoured by the existing laws, and partly from the incredulity of men who have no faith in anything new that is not the result of well-established experience. Hence it is that, whenever the opponents of the new order of things have the opportunity to attack it, they will do it with the zeal of partisans, whilst the others defend it but feebly, so that it is dangerous to rely upon the latter.''
Also, how would this affect the Lloyds insurance market? Would EU rules prevent EU companies buying insurance there? If they do, can EU insurance markets fill the gap fast enough? What happens to existing insurance polices EU companies have at Lloyds?
*edit Sorry for the double post! *
Put up or shut up time
As David Davis said on Daily Politics today "We're currently producing more history than we can consume"
Better for everyone that we have no more than 3 or 4 candidates, can be whittled down to two in a week and the members can have their say next month. Job done by August.
"Not one step back!"
1. None of the big politicians expected a Leave vote. No plans made, no clue about what to do
2. Tories still dripping blood from the large stab wounds wielded by other Tories. Now about to enter bitter leadership contest with the winner announced in nearly 3 months time - until then noone in charge making decisions
3. Labour now pouring with blood from the large stab wounds and beheadings* from their MPs and fundamentalist membership (*Pat Glass beheaded herself). Labour leadership may be decided in 3 months until they noone in charge
4. The Europeans scratching their heads asking what the fuck is it with you people (cf Dutch PM's comments earlier) - the longer that nothing goes on from the noone in charge the worse things will get
Have I missed anything out?
Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
Guido Fawkes Retweeted
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 1m1 minute ago
Also hearing that McDonnell has told Corbyn he wdn't automatically be on the ballot paper, so he, McDonnell, should be the left candidate.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-mcdonnell-labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-shadow-cabinet-brexit-eu-referendum-hilary-benn-heidi-a7103981.html
"Libera te tutemet ex inferis!"
Is it 2-1 or 1-2 ?
(Oh and guys - they've put some chicken wire over those air vents this time.)
Nearly as impressive as Jezza
Stalin didn't cope very well with stress when Germany invaded in 1941. He disappeared for a few days and resigned, and was then prevailed upon to un-resign.
Corbyn is bearing up well - credit where it's due. Lol! Два шага вперед, один шаг назад doesn't seem to be an option!
- "GTFO Rosbifs, don't let the door bang you on the arse on your way out"
- "OMG wt-OK, let's at least sort the trade deal out"
- "Please don't go! You're abandoning us to the tender mercies of the Frogs and Russkis".
- Peter Cushing as Tarkin in "Star Wars", 1977
Kevin McGuire just suggested that most of the entryists the Labour Party are currently getting are ANTI-Corbynites.
Just lol.
Mr. Eagles, you silly sausage.
All the parties in the UK seem damaged goods apart from probably the SNP.
Britain seems absolutely ripe right now for a new political force to emerge. Could that be "the Boris Party" if that's what the Tory Party plumps for as leader in September. Or something else?
FWIW, I'm backing Boris for Leader. Sympathies with May, but she's just not box office, and the Tories frankly need to engage bigger and wider to retain power. Boris proved in London he can do that, twice over, and I think he'll also engage with folk who have basically zero interest in politics and don't bother voting. Whether he'll be any good is another matter, but it's all about winning power first and foremost...
Labour is now finished. later this year or early next, the Tories will win the biggest majority that any party has won since the war and will then dump on millions of ordinary people from a very great height.
Can the CLP find the traitors ?
Jamie McGeever Verified account
@ReutersJamie
Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.
"Can I get you fine gentlemen all a drink?" asks the barman.
"I don't know" says the first
"I don't know" says the second
What does the third one say?
At what point will the Speaker step in, as each Member gets more and more accusatory towards the former PM and his communications director?
*king sized popcorn ordered*
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie · 3m3 minutes ago
Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted Tim Montgomerie ن
Just to clarify - my earlier Tweet (https://twitter.com/montie/status/748097431200477186 …) was an endorsement of the man, not of his leadership bid. I'm backing Boris.
Some Labour MPs believe Corbyn clinging on to respond to Chilcot next week, apologise on behalf of Lab & call for Blair war crimes trial.
the letters arent taken are they