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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Team Corbyn shouldn’t assume that he’ll get “three quidder

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  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740
    IanB2 said:

    LibDems now announcing that since last Friday they have received one new member per minute (on average!) and that today the total passed 10,000

    Didn't both the LibDems and Labour get big boosts in members after the GE?
    I bet Labour would rather not have had that boost.
    Any news on how Labour membership is doing at the moment?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,411
    DanSmith said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.

    Milne is just scared of having to go back to the guardian.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    that means May turned him down.

    Good on her.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.

    We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY

    The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins

    Do you not remember the IMF saying similar bollocks when the Cons cut taxes and spending after the GE ?

    We then boomed.
    This really is not comparable. I don't see how pb-ers fail to grasp this.
    There will be a budget in October which will be used to boost the Uk - not by GO either.
    Ah yes - spend spend spend - Viv Nicholson the new CoE - lots of beer and sandwiches for the TUs at no 10..oh..wait...that's Labour innit!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    There is a Polish tabloid with headlines about Brexit etc with the following word:

    Brytyjczycy

    Just brilliant - what a language! Cannot help but admire that

    There is a desperate vowel shortage in Poland. They need to broker a deal with the NZ Maori, who have a language that could easily spare a few!
    They bought them cheap off the Hawaiians...
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    DanSmith said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.

    Milne is just scared of having to go back to the guardian.
    He may not get his job back.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited June 2016

    DanSmith said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.

    Milne is just scared of having to go back to the guardian.
    :lol:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,411
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    DanSmith said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.

    Milne is just scared of having to go back to the guardian.
    He may not get his job back.
    If the rumours are to believed the editor of the guardian is a big fan of his. Everybody else there hates him, but the guardian editor ain't going anywhere. Job for life.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    IanB2 said:

    LibDems now announcing that since last Friday they have received one new member per minute (on average!) and that today the total passed 10,000

    Didn't both the LibDems and Labour get big boosts in members after the GE?
    I bet Labour would rather not have had that boost.
    Any news on how Labour membership is doing at the moment?
    Apparently 13,000 up since day before yesterday ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355

    that means May turned him down.

    Good on her.
    +1

    I hope she did it Heath style without looking up: "You'll lose."
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935
    DanSmith said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.

    It would be crazy to stick it out for 5 days then give in.

    Hope its not true.

    PLP really hates democracy otherwise it would have challenged long before now.

    Plus its Chilcot next Wednesday
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,053
    edited June 2016
    DanSmith said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.

    Who was the source for that ?

    Dan Hodges ?

    He'll only quit for a continuity Corbyn candidate. Corbyn might go, corbynism won't.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    IanB2 said:

    LibDems now announcing that since last Friday they have received one new member per minute (on average!) and that today the total passed 10,000

    Can we see that on a LibDems Winning Here chart please?
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody Swiss - can't trust them



    Jamie McGeever Verified account 
    @ReutersJamie
    Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.



    Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
    My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.

    /smugmode
    But your home could drop 20% in value. Or more.
    House prices are way too high by any sane measure, and their falling makes no difference to people who don't want to move.

    And it's good news for their children who haven't yet bought one.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,173
    RodCrosby said:
    LOL. A definite case of Mandy Rice-Davis applying to that comment!
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740

    SeanT said:

    That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.

    We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY

    The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins

    Anyone who based their EU referendum vote on a few quarters GDP figures didn't really understand what the vote was all about. Seems that includes you!

    Of COURSE it will be worse for a bit, that's not news.

    In the long run we will be better off out of it. That was what guided my cross, my lip's not going all wobbly because of a few economists predicting the fairly obvious

    (Although I think the +2.3% was always optimistic frankly...global economy heading for a slowdown anyway)
    A true believer, a bit like Corbyn really.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,585

    I can understand Dave falling on his sword, as the referendum was his baby, thus triggering the Tory Party contest.

    But why is there carnage in the Labour Party less than a week after the result?

    Labour MPs have wanted to get rid of Corbyn ever since he was elected by Labour membership. They are just using Brexit as an excuse.

    Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
    The Rebel Alliance are about to be shown the awesome power of the Death Star....

    (Oh and guys - they've put some chicken wire over those air vents this time.)
    Why did they have air vents in space again?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    that means May turned him down.

    Good on her.
    He'll row in behind her eventually anyway. Might look better that way.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody Swiss - can't trust them



    Jamie McGeever Verified account 
    @ReutersJamie
    Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.



    Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
    My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.

    /smugmode
    But your home could drop 20% in value. Or more.
    Yes, and? It has done that before, didn't seem to cause the end of the world then and I don't suppose it will now.

    Why don't you have a nice cup of tea and then get on with some work?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,994

    I can understand Dave falling on his sword, as the referendum was his baby, thus triggering the Tory Party contest.

    But why is there carnage in the Labour Party less than a week after the result?

    Labour MPs have wanted to get rid of Corbyn ever since he was elected by Labour membership. They are just using Brexit as an excuse.

    Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
    Yeah, it's an excuse. For those who are using the argument that he didn't try hard enoujgh on the EU, it's worth checking out the results in each of the respective critics' areas, as this chap has done:

    http://beestonweek.blogspot.co.uk/

    Yes, I know it's easier to win in Islington than Ashfield, but equally the effort put in by Islington CLP on the referendum at Jeremy's request was a great deal more than some CLPs managed at the request of their MPs.

    Maybe the glorious leader could have requested the whole party put in that effort, eh? Isn't that what leaders are supposed to do?

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    LibDems now announcing that since last Friday they have received one new member per minute (on average!) and that today the total passed 10,000

    Can we see that on a LibDems Winning Here chart please?
    Fox jr has been very anti LD since the student fees fiasco. Now quite pro.

    Being the pro-europe party is the way to recapture support of the youth.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,618
    The FTSE 100 has now recovered all of its post-Referendum fall, the 250 has recovered a good proportion and, whilst still well down, the £/$ has been on the rise since yesterday.

    Since very little of the uncertainty has been resolved my instinct is that these recoveries may be temporary, but the strength of the stock market recovery in particular is both surprising and encouraging.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935

    Robert PestonVerified account
    @Peston
    I am told 13,000 people joined Labour last week, with 60% giving the reason they are "supporting Corbyn".
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody Swiss - can't trust them



    Jamie McGeever Verified account 
    @ReutersJamie
    Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.



    Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
    My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.

    /smugmode
    But your home could drop 20% in value. Or more.
    House prices are way too high by any sane measure, and their falling makes no difference to people who don't want to move.

    And it's good news for their children who haven't yet bought one.
    Indeed Millenials who seem to think organising facebook petitions is the same as voting might get a Brexit bonus if house prices do drop a bit or stall, which might cheer up those who voted Remain. I agree house prices are nuts at present, just nuts, and I am a beneficiary of this state of affairs.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    John_M said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody Swiss - can't trust them



    Jamie McGeever Verified account 
    @ReutersJamie
    Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.



    Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
    My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.

    /smugmode
    But your home could drop 20% in value. Or more.
    I hate arguing with people like I'm some Pollyanna. Value doesn't matter until you actually trade out. But I do appreciate that some people bank on perpetual house price inflation, and I'm sorry for those who would be affected.

    However, the fundamentals haven't changed. We have a growing number of households, where demand exceeds supply. The country could do with a housing market like the 90s, even if individuals feel differently about it :).
    Value does matter if you are recent buyer in that you could go into negative equity.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    I see the FTSE is back to where it was pre-referendum results. And that had a Remain win priced in.

    FTSE All Share
    23rd June: 3481
    Today: 3413
    What's 68 points between friends?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    IanB2 said:

    The FTSE 100 has now recovered all of its post-Referendum fall, the 250 has recovered a good proportion and, whilst still well down, the £/$ has been on the rise since yesterday.

    Not in dollar terms. In normal circumstances you'd expect a fall in Sterling to boost the FTSE100 because of the high proportion of foreign earnings it reflects.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody Swiss - can't trust them



    Jamie McGeever Verified account 
    @ReutersJamie
    Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.



    Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
    My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.

    /smugmode
    But your home could drop 20% in value. Or more.
    House prices are way too high by any sane measure, and their falling makes no difference to people who don't want to move.

    And it's good news for their children who haven't yet bought one.
    In the wonderful new land of Brexitania there is no bad news - everything is good. People lose their jobs - no problem Boris bikes available, house prices crash leaving thousands in negative equity - no problem - suck it up...............
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,994
    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.

    Who was the source for that ?

    Dan Hodges ?

    He'll only quit for a continuity Corbyn candidate. Corbyn might go, corbynism won't.

    That's fine. The new person can stand for election and, presumably, win. Labour will have a better, more credible leader than it has now.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    DavidL said:

    I can understand Dave falling on his sword, as the referendum was his baby, thus triggering the Tory Party contest.

    But why is there carnage in the Labour Party less than a week after the result?

    Labour MPs have wanted to get rid of Corbyn ever since he was elected by Labour membership. They are just using Brexit as an excuse.

    Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
    The Rebel Alliance are about to be shown the awesome power of the Death Star....

    (Oh and guys - they've put some chicken wire over those air vents this time.)
    Why did they have air vents in space again?
    A very effective way to get the smell of food out of the Death Star canteen.....
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935

    I can understand Dave falling on his sword, as the referendum was his baby, thus triggering the Tory Party contest.

    But why is there carnage in the Labour Party less than a week after the result?

    Labour MPs have wanted to get rid of Corbyn ever since he was elected by Labour membership. They are just using Brexit as an excuse.

    Poor judgemnet by the rebels who don't have a candidate that can beat Corbyn in a membership election so trying to by-pass democracy.
    Yeah, it's an excuse. For those who are using the argument that he didn't try hard enoujgh on the EU, it's worth checking out the results in each of the respective critics' areas, as this chap has done:

    http://beestonweek.blogspot.co.uk/

    Yes, I know it's easier to win in Islington than Ashfield, but equally the effort put in by Islington CLP on the referendum at Jeremy's request was a great deal more than some CLPs managed at the request of their MPs.

    Maybe the glorious leader could have requested the whole party put in that effort, eh? Isn't that what leaders are supposed to do?

    Hunt tried his best and got 30%

    Corbyn without breaking sweat secured over 70%

    All hail the Messiah
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    LibDems now announcing that since last Friday they have received one new member per minute (on average!) and that today the total passed 10,000

    Can we see that on a LibDems Winning Here chart please?
    Fox jr has been very anti LD since the student fees fiasco. Now quite pro.

    Being the pro-europe party is the way to recapture support of the youth.
    I quite agree. But it will be tricky. My (non-political) wife was discussing with some of her students, who were very impressed with the Lib Dems in the Euro-Ref but still nervous about backing them due to tuition fees. They would have been 12 at the time of the vote.....
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    LibDems now announcing that since last Friday they have received one new member per minute (on average!) and that today the total passed 10,000

    Can we see that on a LibDems Winning Here chart please?
    Fox jr has been very anti LD since the student fees fiasco. Now quite pro.

    Being the pro-europe party is the way to recapture support of the youth.
    You mean the ones who can't be arsed to vote?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    re: Sindy

    Mr Hollande said: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom".

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    I see the FTSE is back to where it was pre-referendum results. And that had a Remain win priced in.

    FTSE All Share
    23rd June: 3481
    Today: 3413
    FTSE250 ? FTSE100 should increase since most of their income comes from abroad and the pound has fallen against the dollar.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    RodCrosby said:

    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...

    :o
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    RodCrosby said:

    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...

    This is an email from yesterday, no doubt it's all been cleared up.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,173
    RodCrosby said:

    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...

    Running himself or supporting May, that is the question?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    chestnut said:

    re: Sindy

    Mr Hollande said: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom".

    Sturgeon got slapped down today in Europe!
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sean T - if the BBC are saying things aren't bad, then they're probably not so bad. If you have made the incorrect decision then you'll know in 5 years not in 5 days.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36665685?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody Swiss - can't trust them



    Jamie McGeever Verified account 
    @ReutersJamie
    Credit Suisse predicts UK recession with GDP -1.0% next year, Bank of England to slash rates to 0.05% and do £75 billion more QE.



    Ooh good means my mortgage will go down a bit.
    My mortgage will go down to 0.54%. Basically, halve.

    /smugmode
    But your home could drop 20% in value. Or more.
    Yes, and? It has done that before, didn't seem to cause the end of the world then and I don't suppose it will now.

    Why don't you have a nice cup of tea and then get on with some work?
    i think I positively enjoy the doom and gloom, to an extent, in some S&M way. Also I haven't got a damn clue what to write next, so I just sit here and stare into space, anyway

    Anyone got any ideas for a thriller? I pay folding money
    How about PM of middling country calls referendum to foist off losing support to upstart pressure party, unexpectedly has to make good on it, thinks it's all a bit of a bore essay crisis, makes half hearted attempt at negotiating, gets told "tant pis", utterly and totally misjudges country's mood, but gets all main parties on board, unions, broadcasters, the lot to face down a rag tag voting insurgency, promises Armageddon if people won't stop being silly, loses, falls on sword, opposition atomises..... oh forget it. It's too outlandish
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    IanB2 said:

    The FTSE 100 has now recovered all of its post-Referendum fall, the 250 has recovered a good proportion and, whilst still well down, the £/$ has been on the rise since yesterday.

    Since very little of the uncertainty has been resolved my instinct is that these recoveries may be temporary, but the strength of the stock market recovery in particular is both surprising and encouraging.

    A lot of the mood music is suggesting micro - brexit is the best on offer for the raging hordes of the north and the midlands. It may not end well. :)
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Gove as CoE with May as leader... very strong team.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    IanB2 said:

    The FTSE 100 has now recovered all of its post-Referendum fall, the 250 has recovered a good proportion and, whilst still well down, the £/$ has been on the rise since yesterday.

    Since very little of the uncertainty has been resolved my instinct is that these recoveries may be temporary, but the strength of the stock market recovery in particular is both surprising and encouraging.

    "The European Central Bank is in no rush to ease its monetary policy in response Britain's vote to leave the European Union, taking comfort in a calmer-than-feared market reaction, several sources have told Reuters."

    We're just waiting on the Fed's bank stress results later to see which way the markets will end the week.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,053
    Why is Eagle heading back in ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    Pauly said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...

    This is an email from yesterday, no doubt it's all been cleared up.
    The email sounds like it's more about how to manage the media to get Murdoch and Dacre on Boris's side.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,052
    Mr. Slackbladder, Gove as May's Chancellor could fit in with Fox being told to foxtrot off.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    SeanT said:

    That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.

    We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY

    The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins

    Oh FFS Mr T. What happened to that British stiff upper lip ?

    Revote ? Are you serious ? Because the voters are so approving of being asked the same question twice, and a load of leavers that expected not to win will come out for a revote and put it beyond question :D
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,481
    edited June 2016
    Gove's wife's private e mail leaked to press showing that Gove may not back Boris unless he receives assurances. Sensational story from Sky
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    RodCrosby said:

    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...

    Trouble in Brexitania?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,060
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.

    We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY

    The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins

    It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
    But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2016
    RodCrosby said:
    A Labour MEP has warned that the party could split if Mr Corbyn does not step down.

    Mary Honeyball, who is MEP for the Labour Party in London, said: "Jeremy Corbyn's corrosive leadership has brought the Labour Party close to the edge, and tragically the party I know and love is now in imminent danger of imploding all together."

    In an article in the New Statesman, she added: "There is a real possibility of Corbyn getting on the ballot paper and being re-elected. At that stage 200 MPs may form a new party.

    "And if need be I will join them."
    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-06-29/mps-may-form-a-new-party-if-corbyn-stays/
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Gove's wife's private e mail leaked to press showing that Gove may not back Boris unless he receives assurances. Sensational story from Sky

    Gove has a wife?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Slackbladder, Gove as May's Chancellor could fit in with Fox being told to foxtrot off.

    Given Boris's main plus point was CotE and chief EU negotiator Gove well..

    May/Gove dream team is on.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,994
    surbiton said:

    DanSmith said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 8m8 minutes ago
    NEW: Just been told Corbyn has said in the last day he wants out, he's had enough. But his Dir of Comms @SeumasMilne told him he should stay

    Almost there.

    Milne is just scared of having to go back to the guardian.
    He may not get his job back.

    Milne has spent much of his adult life fighting the Labour party, which he regards as bourgeois and decadent. His dream is to turn it into a genuine anti-capitalist party of the proletariat. He is very close to that now. There's no way he'll give up and Corbyn will do as he is told.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    re: Sindy

    Mr Hollande said: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom".

    Sturgeon got slapped down today in Europe!
    Sturgeon knew it will come to naught, she’s just playing politics for domestic consumption.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Brexit.

    What's the fucking point?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...

    :o
    #CurseBorisJohnson is trending on Twitter

    it's just Twitter, but a mood is developing, and it ain't necessarily good for prominent LEAVE campaigners. To put it mildly.
    Oh no, not Twitter!!!
  • Options
    Anyone got any ideas for a thriller? I pay folding money

    I've always been fascinated by the possibility of storing the human mind electronically and issues of identity (the sort of 'if you could transplant a brain it would actually be a body transplant not a brain transplant'). They're starting to be able to record some aspects of brain function and memory. Maybe record dreams and replay them inside someone else's brain. Maybe transplant an identity as a form of control or false flag operation. I'm sure there's a thriller where the protagonist thinks he's someone else, maybe finds he is someone else. Obviously there's a bad guy controlling. Something horribly serious at stake. I'd go lite on the gorilla sex and Swedish boilings though.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,060
    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    I see the FTSE is back to where it was pre-referendum results. And that had a Remain win priced in.

    FTSE All Share
    23rd June: 3481
    Today: 3413
    FTSE250 ? FTSE100 should increase since most of their income comes from abroad and the pound has fallen against the dollar.
    The 250 has recovered 60% of its losses and is still rising.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    From the Telegraph:

    He [Rajoy] was echoed by Mr Hollande, the French President, who insisted the EU will make no advance deal with Scotland. He said: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom.”
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    I see the FTSE is back to where it was pre-referendum results. And that had a Remain win priced in.

    FTSE All Share
    23rd June: 3481
    Today: 3413
    What's 68 points between friends?
    1.9%?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935
    45 out of 50 constituency Labour party chairs contacted by #newsnight say they still back Jeremy Corbyn - and many are furious at Labour MPs
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Now the French are going (for) Krankie

    Alan Roden ‏@AlanRoden

    French president Francois Hollande: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom"
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    re: Sindy

    Mr Hollande said: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom".

    Sturgeon got slapped down today in Europe!
    Sturgeon knew it will come to naught, she’s just playing politics for domestic consumption.
    Mary Queen of Scots having to rely on French support in Edinburgh. Didn't end well.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,052
    edited June 2016
    Mr. T, ISIS get hold of Syrian chemical weapons [or Iranian nuclear material, if you prefer]. As the so-called caliphate is destroyed, the final fighters travel to Western Europe with an aim of releasing a chemical, biological or dirty bomb (as you like).

    You could do one about the treasure Quintus Caepio stole, and lost [after he was slaughtered by the Cimbri at Arausio]. The quantity of gold was significant.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gold_of_Tolosa

    Edited extra bit: may have misremembered, and the gold be hidden rather than lost, but still works.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,053
    Pong said:

    Gove's wife's private e mail leaked to press showing that Gove may not back Boris unless he receives assurances. Sensational story from Sky

    Gove has a wife?
    Sarah Vine
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.

    On that subject, the comments from Juncker about this are interesting, saying that if you're in you can try to change the terms, but if you're out you're out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPCCJ9myP70
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    felix said:

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    LibDems now announcing that since last Friday they have received one new member per minute (on average!) and that today the total passed 10,000

    Can we see that on a LibDems Winning Here chart please?
    Fox jr has been very anti LD since the student fees fiasco. Now quite pro.

    Being the pro-europe party is the way to recapture support of the youth.
    You mean the ones who can't be arsed to vote?
    The Lib Dems as the Remainian National Party is good positioning. They are desperate for *any* coverage and *anything* that changes the narrative from fees. I suspect it won't work though as the Brand is just so toxic.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,060
    Jobabob said:

    The Labour Party

    What's the fucking point?

    Fixed it for you.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Anyone got any ideas for a thriller? I pay folding money

    Actually.... I have a very densely plotted thriller called WITHOUT WARNING which I was very pleased with and was advised to write as an airport novel. It was a "what if..." scenario. Then 9/11 came along and I chucked it in the bottom of a drawer... Would need some reworking, but there's a good story and great denouement in there...
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959
    RodCrosby said:

    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...

    Oooooooo.....
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    I see the FTSE is back to where it was pre-referendum results. And that had a Remain win priced in.

    FTSE All Share
    23rd June: 3481
    Today: 3413
    FTSE250 ? FTSE100 should increase since most of their income comes from abroad and the pound has fallen against the dollar.
    FTSE250 is still wankered but we may as well talk about All Shares to stop the continual to and fro on which index to use to determine Armageddon, and yes I understand that the FTSE All Share is dominated by the FTSE 100 companies in practice.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,060

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.

    On that subject, the comments from Juncker about this are interesting, saying that if you're in you can try to change the terms, but if you're out you're out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPCCJ9myP70
    We are out (or will be). Why would we want to change the terms of EU membership when we are not a member?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959
    TGOHF said:

    Now the French are going (for) Krankie

    Alan Roden ‏@AlanRoden

    French president Francois Hollande: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom"

    #No2Nicola
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Patrick said:

    Anyone got any ideas for a thriller? I pay folding money

    I've always been fascinated by the possibility of storing the human mind electronically and issues of identity (the sort of 'if you could transplant a brain it would actually be a body transplant not a brain transplant'). They're starting to be able to record some aspects of brain function and memory. Maybe record dreams and replay them inside someone else's brain. Maybe transplant an identity as a form of control or false flag operation. I'm sure there's a thriller where the protagonist thinks he's someone else, maybe finds he is someone else. Obviously there's a bad guy controlling. Something horribly serious at stake. I'd go lite on the gorilla sex and Swedish boilings though.

    I like the Peter Watts' articles about all the wierd and wonderful things our minds can get up to, like Cotard's delusion (patient 'knows' they are dead), blindsight, agnosias of various flavours (hemispherical blindness is wierd). The article about the man with 2% of normal brain tissue who appeared to be fully functional stays with me to this day.

    There has to be a novel somewhere in there :).
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago

    Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Patrick said:

    Anyone got any ideas for a thriller? I pay folding money

    I've always been fascinated by the possibility of storing the human mind electronically and issues of identity (the sort of 'if you could transplant a brain it would actually be a body transplant not a brain transplant'). They're starting to be able to record some aspects of brain function and memory. Maybe record dreams and replay them inside someone else's brain. Maybe transplant an identity as a form of control or false flag operation. I'm sure there's a thriller where the protagonist thinks he's someone else, maybe finds he is someone else. Obviously there's a bad guy controlling. Something horribly serious at stake. I'd go lite on the gorilla sex and Swedish boilings though.

    Sounds like Philip K Dick stuff...
    We can remember it for you wholesale
    As for protagonist thinking he's somebody else - Bob Arctor in A Scanner Darkly...
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170

    felix said:

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    LibDems now announcing that since last Friday they have received one new member per minute (on average!) and that today the total passed 10,000

    Can we see that on a LibDems Winning Here chart please?
    Fox jr has been very anti LD since the student fees fiasco. Now quite pro.

    Being the pro-europe party is the way to recapture support of the youth.
    You mean the ones who can't be arsed to vote?
    The Lib Dems as the Remainian National Party is good positioning. They are desperate for *any* coverage and *anything* that changes the narrative from fees. I suspect it won't work though as the Brand is just so toxic.
    Coming back, though. Slowly, admittedly. Any ex MP’s reselected yet? Jo Swinson for example.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:


    i think I positively enjoy the doom and gloom, to an extent, in some S&M way. Also I haven't got a damn clue what to write next, so I just sit here and stare into space, anyway

    Anyone got any ideas for a thriller? I pay folding money

    Plot point you can have for free is when the killer's alibi that involves never having been to the victims house is rumbled when it is noticed that his phone auto connects to the victim's wifi when he revisits the scene.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.

    On that subject, the comments from Juncker about this are interesting, saying that if you're in you can try to change the terms, but if you're out you're out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPCCJ9myP70
    We are out (or will be). Why would we want to change the terms of EU membership when we are not a member?
    If the new government decides that the British interest is best served by trying to negotiate to stay in, they still have that option. Until we're out, we're in.
  • Options
    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281

    45 out of 50 constituency Labour party chairs contacted by #newsnight say they still back Jeremy Corbyn - and many are furious at Labour MPs

    Even if there is somehow a quick coup, this isn't going to be pretty. *Evil laugh*
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago

    Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn

    See? Corbyn, the immortal God-King of the Opposition. Called it yesterday.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That misdirected email throws up a lot of interesting questions. Why do Murdoch/Dacre instinctively dislike Boris? What are the specific assurances being sought? Why does the email wander between discussing Michael Gove in the third person and then by the end apparently refer to him in the second person?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,481
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Gove's wife's private e mail leaked to press showing that Gove may not back Boris unless he receives assurances. Sensational story from Sky

    Gove has a wife?
    Sarah Vine
    Think Sam Cam may have a wry smile on the news of Sarah Vine's leaked e mail
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,053
    I'm laying Eagle back to ~ 0. Looking very clear Jeremy will crush her in a contest and she might not even run.
  • Options
    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Brexitania has always been at war with Remainia.
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    William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346

    45 out of 50 constituency Labour party chairs contacted by #newsnight say they still back Jeremy Corbyn - and many are furious at Labour MPs

    "Still back" is relevant phrasing - these are people who backed Corbyn last year, not a sample of all constituency party chairs
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Breaking: Gove may not support Boris...

    :o
    #CurseBorisJohnson is trending on Twitter

    it's just Twitter, but a mood is developing, and it ain't necessarily good for prominent LEAVE campaigners. To put it mildly.
    Oh no, not Twitter!!!
    Twitter always have their finger on the pulse of public opinion - if you're a soaking wet leftard living in an alternative universe.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,994
    John_M said:

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago

    Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn

    See? Corbyn, the immortal God-King of the Opposition. Called it yesterday.

    It's been apparent for a long time that Labour members would prefer a Tory government to a Labour party led by anyone but Jeremy Corbyn.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,052
    Mr. T, another treasure-idea could be when Hastein (I think) raided the Mediterranean in the 9th century. Got lots of treasure but lost 2/3 of his ships [obviously, unlike the other idea, that would likely now be on the seabed].

    Attila was buried in an unknown location, I think with much treasure, likewise Genghis Khan.

    A different idea would be having Edward II survive in secret (something many historians now think happened) and fathered a child, whose descendent could have legitimate claim to be King/Queen of England.
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.

    We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY

    The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins

    It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
    But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
    The implicit offer from the Leave campaign and the basis of many voters' choice was that we will not have to accept free movement of labour. All indications are that to be part of the single market we must accept free movement. Boris and Gove have a lot of explain to do. They cannot be placed in high government positions - they will be crucified by angry voters.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Ed has spoken - Corbyn must reign!

    He will reign, don't worry.
    LOL - the worst typo ever!
    Someone's been taking the s.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,994
    William_H said:

    45 out of 50 constituency Labour party chairs contacted by #newsnight say they still back Jeremy Corbyn - and many are furious at Labour MPs

    "Still back" is relevant phrasing - these are people who backed Corbyn last year, not a sample of all constituency party chairs

    The glorious leader is glorious.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,618

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish economy is completely integrated with the UK economy. Any change in that will cause disruptions approximately 8x what the UK is facing at the moment. Given the facts of history and geography there is no way to avoid that.

    The economic arguments are clearly significant. However if the EU referendum taught us anything, apart from the "interesting disturbance in polling accuracy", it is that financial arguments, however solidly based sometimes do not always cut through. "Experts" Hhmmm ....

    Wales and Cornwall voted LEAVE despite substantial largesse from the EU. They wanted out and they didn't care. Scotland and the Union may go the same way.

    Substantial largess from the EU my ARSE!

    The UK as a whole is a net contributor to Brussels coffers!

    Remember:

    There is no such thing as "EU money"! There is only taxpayers' money!
    If you really believe that I suggest you relocate to somewhere where you can live without any requirement to share your money with the state institutions (council, GLA, UK and EU) with which, by living here, you de facto agree to yield a proportion of your income/wealth in return for the services they provide.

    Anyway, there is no such thing as "your money", it comes from your employer (or bank, or deceased relatives, or wherever)... lol
    Employers get profits from people buying their products/using their services, no?
    Yes, so money goes round in a circle, or doesn't, in which case we are all in trouble.

    My last point was only 10% serious.

    I know that you like your point, but honestly it seems rather trite to me!
    I was actually paraphrasing Maggie :)

    "Let us never forget this fundamental truth: the State has no source of money other than money which people earn themselves. If the State wishes to spend more it can do so only by borrowing your savings or by taxing you more. It is no good thinking that someone else will pay – that ‘someone else’ is you. There is no such thing as public money; there is only taxpayers’ money."

    - speech to Conference, 14/10/83

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvz8tg4MVpA
    Fine, but since the same (again, rather trite) point could be made about your council's money, the GLA's money, and the Government's money, it doesn't seem particularly relevant to this thread and all the debate here about the EU? And your only escape is to go and live in Monaco or Belize or somewhere...
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2016

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.

    Not so. In fact there are already special arrangements for specific EEA states - Protocol 47 doesn't apply to Liechtenstein, Protocol 15 has special arrangements for Liechtenstein, Protocol 8 has special provisions for Liechtenstein and Iceland, etc etc etc

    http://www.efta.int/legal-texts/eea/protocols-to-the-agreement

    What you don't seem to understand is the Contracting Parties can agree whatever they like. It will need the consent of all signatories, of course. But I've made that point many times anyway - to use the EEA route requires the consent of the UK plus the rEU 27 plus the EEA 3 (plus Switzerland for the EFTA bit). In negotiating that consent, anything can be added or subtracted, in legal terms.
This discussion has been closed.