We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago
Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450.
They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50".
Ironically save the City of London.
Not sure I understand this.
Any realistic realignment needs to incude Orange LDs, Liberal Labour and Wet Tories.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
If that is the case, then why Leave ?
We have listed the advantages of leaving so many times before that I am not going to bother repeating them for you yet again.
One was no free movement of people.
Not for Richard. He is one of the Enlightened Ones that will happily accept the betrayal of the desires of the majority of the Leave voters (foreigners out) because he sees a more elegant solution in some supposed EEA arrangement.
Although why being vetoed by Norway is a superior state of affairs to being vetoed by France, or outvoted by France and Poland, is anyone's guess.
Because we cannot be outvoted by anyone if we are in EFTA. There is no QMV and all votes have to be unanimous.
Baring betrayal by the politicians we are now on our way out of the EU. This means that the decision on where to proceed must be made on behalf of all the electorate, not just the 23% who have said they would not want the EFTA route.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
The far left does not do deals. It is totally uncompromising. It has the members onside and so has total power.
And Nick Palmer voted for him. And still supports him. Incroyable
Nick was a communist, wasn't he? Comfortably off, totally unaffected by anything that the Tories might do, this is all just a wonderful game to him. The workers, the workers will rise, and punks and rastas and skins and people of every colour and creed will flock to follow the glorious leader and the bosses will be put in chains and we'll all own the means of production and isn't it all just so terribly exciting.
Meanwhile in the real world ...
Oh, FFS. You're so obsessed with me that you're dragging in my opinions of 45 years ago? Why don't you simply argue your case without worrying about what some ex-MP thinks?
ex ex MP.
A Corbyn supporter who believes that Blair made an "honest mistake" over Iraq; he's a rare breed..
Starting from here, which is where I wouldn't start from, it's a simple choice. Either we accept the full-on economic hit of not being in the Single Market, which I think will be quite nasty, in return for not having freedom of movement, or we accept the lesser economic hit (arising from the uncertainty pending agreement) of something like the EEA (assuming it's on offer, of course). This is all entirely a political negotiation, Richard T's obsession with the minutiae of the legalities is completely irrelevant.
I haven't changed my view on the economic risks, so on balance I think the EEA route and shafting Leavers who thought they were voting for an end fo free movement of people is probably the less unpalatable of two extremely unpalatable options, and the government might get away with it given the chaos in Labour and the rather quick buyer's remorse that we are seeing. The politicians will have to find some face-saving way of pretending that both sides have won something from the negotiations.
Yes, that's pretty much where I am
I also think we will be a happier nation in that position, in the long term, than we would be if we'd stayed in the EU (as long as the Scots stay with us). It's just a question of how much awful pain we must endure interim
The EU is not headed anywhere we want to be, ultimately - cf the EU army
The EU army isn't really relevant, other than as an illustration that the superstate impetus is still lurking around. The EU wants to be able to back up its soft power projection with some hard stuff. That bothers me a bit, but not much. An EU army wouldn't amount to much more than France + oddsnsods.
In the medium term, it all depends who wins the philosophical day, France or Germany. As was mentioned earlier, the Anglo-American business model isn't universally admired. Bonus caps, transaction taxes and other issues could constrain European financial markets. There are plenty of worrying signs in the EU majors for everyone to chew on - it's not UK bad, Europe good.
I think the markets are going to calm down simply because the timetable is starting to surface - new UK leadership in September, next EU27 meeting 16th September, article 50 sometime in October or late September.
In the immediate future volatility is more likely due to news from the US or China.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
If that is the case, then why Leave ?
We have listed the advantages of leaving so many times before that I am not going to bother repeating them for you yet again.
One was no free movement of people.
Not in any list I have ever made. In fact anyone telling you that the EEA route included restraint on freedom of movement was lying.
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450. They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50". Ironically save the City of London.
vs. UKIP's "leave means leave" On the electoral map, huge swathes of England and Wales would turn from red to purple.
Cripes,Mr Pong. I mean....
Do you really think that everybody who voted for Leave is going to vote for UKIP?
Well, I won't. But I won't vote for any party that advocates being in the political part of the EU either.
Completely relaxed about Free Trade, Immigration, Co-operation in dealing with Climate Change etc - but not the political side ("US of E").
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago
Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450.
They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50".
Ironically save the City of London.
vs. UKIP's "leave means leave"
On the electoral map, huge swathes of England and Wales would turn from red to purple.
Perhaps so, but we may also see swathes of the Tories' richest constituencies turning from blue to red - eg Labour might lose Barnsley but gain Kensington.
Hahaha. Never going to happen, Surrey will never vote for Labour they just don't care about the E.U that much, no one apart from the non voting hippy Islington types do.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
Angela Eagle now the favourite, down to 2.68, Tom Watson out to 4.3
Have I missed something?
2.68 looks like a fair price for her to beat Corbyn. However we haven't got a contest yet -Corbyn could still go - and she isn't confirmed as the candidate either. Lay.
I see the FTSE is back to where it was pre-referendum results. And that had a Remain win priced in.
FTSE All Share 23rd June: 3481 Today: 3413
Now 3,441
Re: FTSE All Share 3441 vs 3481 of 23 June. This is a terrible End of Days, anyone seen the plague of locusts? This is a really low budget movie with naff special effects.
So - let me get this right. Anyone in the UK holding a portfolio of shares has by and large seen no fall in the value of their portfolio post Brexit. Yet because of the value of the fall in the value of the pound, those shares are now far better value to those outside the UK post Brexit. Thereby keeping their value in sterling buoyant.
And the value of external earnings from those companies will be higher when repatriated to the UK. Is that right?
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
If that is the case, then why Leave ?
Rocket boosters for Nigel Farage at the next GE ?
Have I mentioned my 500/1 bet?
May I enquire as to what your 500 / 1 bet is?
UKIP most seats at next General Election.
Was able to get £7.53 (I presume 10 Euro) on at Paddy Power just after the last election.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago
Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450.
They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50".
Ironically save the City of London.
Not sure I understand this.
Any realistic realignment needs to incude Orange LDs, Liberal Labour and Wet Tories.
Ken Clarke [ because he likes cricket ] and Anna Soubry can join.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
If that is the case, then why Leave ?
Rocket boosters for Nigel Farage at the next GE ?
Have I mentioned my 500/1 bet?
May I enquire as to what your 500 / 1 bet is?
UKIP most seats
I'll "have to have a bang on that" as Ray Winston might say.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago
Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450.
They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50".
Ironically save the City of London.
vs. UKIP's "leave means leave"
On the electoral map, huge swathes of England and Wales would turn from red to purple.
Perhaps so, but we may also see swathes of the Tories' richest constituencies turning from blue to red - eg Labour might lose Barnsley but gain Kensington.
Hahaha. Never going to happen, Surrey will never vote for Labour they just don't care about the E.U that much, no one apart from the non voting hippy Islington types do.
I believe the average Tory vote across Surrey is 60% and Labour is somewhere close to 12%. Labour do not stand a chance.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago
Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450.
They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50".
Ironically save the City of London.
Not sure I understand this.
Any realistic realignment needs to incude Orange LDs, Liberal Labour and Wet Tories.
Ken Clarke [ because he likes cricket ] and Anna Soubry can join.
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450. They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50". Ironically save the City of London.
vs. UKIP's "leave means leave" On the electoral map, huge swathes of England and Wales would turn from red to purple.
Cripes,Mr Pong. I mean....
Do you really think that everybody who voted for Leave is going to vote for UKIP?
Most of them in labour's heartland will.
Vs, Corbyn's Labour and a pro-EU SDPv2 fielding ex lab MP's, then yes, I expect UKIP would come through the middle in the Stoke-on-Trents, Doncasters and Sunderlands.
chris g @chrisg0000 7m7 minutes ago Me:FTSE100 UP 200 points, cancelling out all brexit losses Europhile:But its FTSE250 that matters Me: Its up 499 points Europhile: *silence*
The far left does not do deals. It is totally uncompromising. It has the members onside and so has total power.
And Nick Palmer voted for him. And still supports him. Incroyable
Nick was a communist, wasn't he? Comfortably off, totally unaffected by anything that the Tories might do, this is all just a wonderful game to him. The workers, the workers will rise, and punks and rastas and skins and people of every colour and creed will flock to follow the glorious leader and the bosses will be put in chains and we'll all own the means of production and isn't it all just so terribly exciting.
Meanwhile in the real world ...
Oh, FFS. You're so obsessed with me that you're dragging in my opinions of 45 years ago? Why don't you simply argue your case without worrying about what some ex-MP thinks?
ex ex MP.
A Corbyn supporter who believes that Blair made an "honest mistake" over Iraq; he's a rare breed..
Really, they should be rounded up from the wild and put into a captive breeding programme, so rare are they.
Angela Eagle now the favourite, down to 2.68, Tom Watson out to 4.3
Have I missed something?
2.68 looks like a fair price for her to beat Corbyn. However we haven't got a contest yet -Corbyn could still go - and she isn't confirmed as the candidate either. Lay.
Cheers. I'm a backer of Tom Watson, layer of David Miliband, Hilary Benn, and Ms Eagle
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
If that is the case, then why Leave ?
Rocket boosters for Nigel Farage at the next GE ?
Have I mentioned my 500/1 bet?
May I enquire as to what your 500 / 1 bet is?
UKIP most seats
I'll "have to have a bang on that" as Ray Winston might say.
Alas you've missed the good times, it's only 33/1 now.
< I know this really annoys you but it is a fact. No signatory can be removed from a treaty without being in breach of the terms. If they are forced out the whole treaty ceases to exist.
Why should it annoy me? I agree. We'll still be signatories, of course. We'll still be a Contracting Party. So what? That won't make us an EFTA state for the purposes of this agreement.
I''ve no idea why you can't understand the fact the we are signatories IN OUR CAPACITY AS AN EU MEMBER STATE, and the three EFTA states named in the treaty are on the other side of the agreement. Of course, the agreement will now have to be changed whatever happens.
So how did the previous EFTA states move to the EU without renegotiation of the treaty?
Do go check but you will find that there was no renegotiation in spite of their change of status.
More importantly there was no amendment to the treaty. All amendments including reasons are listed at the start of the treaty. Each time a new member joins the EU there is an amendment. There is no amendment for countries moving from EFTA to the EU.
And the reason? Because as I have kept repeating each individual state is a contracting party and cannot be removed unless they are in breach of the treaty. Moving from one organisation to the other clearly does not constitute a breach.
Angela Eagle now the favourite, down to 2.68, Tom Watson out to 4.3
Have I missed something?
2.68 looks like a fair price for her to beat Corbyn. However we haven't got a contest yet -Corbyn could still go - and she isn't confirmed as the candidate either. Lay.
Cheers. I'm a backer of Tom Watson, layer of David Miliband, Hilary Benn, and Ms Eagle
I'm all green having managed to lay Hilary Benn for 3.55 at one point - should have gone much further alas. But my better outcome is Eagle, my less good Watson.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.
A bit rich of the EU bods to even talk to Sturgeon since there is a presidential ban on talking to the UK!
Angela Eagle now the favourite, down to 2.68, Tom Watson out to 4.3
Have I missed something?
2.68 looks like a fair price for her to beat Corbyn. However we haven't got a contest yet -Corbyn could still go - and she isn't confirmed as the candidate either. Lay.
Cheers. I'm a backer of Tom Watson, layer of David Miliband, Hilary Benn, and Ms Eagle
I'm all green having managed to lay Hilary Benn for 3.55 at one point - should have gone much further alas. But my better outcome is Eagle, my less good Watson.
I'll never forget those crazy few days last December when Hilary Benn was nailed on to be Corbyn's replacement.
What about FTSE250 ? FTSE100 will be OK because overseas earnings are worth more in £'s.
250 is back to Feb 2016 levels. It's certainly well down on its peak, which was about a year ago.
Remind us why the market fell so much in Feb if we're using that spin line?
I'm not spinning ffs - as if anybody is influenced by anything anyone writes here. The 250 has been in trouble for a year - as I pointed out in my post.
I'm an investor, not a day trader. Intra-week movements don't particularly bother me. Trends do.
chris g @chrisg0000 7m7 minutes ago Me:FTSE100 UP 200 points, cancelling out all brexit losses Europhile:But its FTSE250 that matters Me: Its up 499 points Europhile: *silence*
Is it up because the markets no longer believe we will actually Brexit?
So how did the previous EFTA states move to the EU without renegotiation of the treaty?
Do go check but you will find that there was no renegotiation in spite of their change of status.
More importantly there was no amendment to the treaty. All amendments including reasons are listed at the start of the treaty. Each time a new member joins the EU there is an amendment. There is no amendment for countries moving from EFTA to the EU.
And the reason? Because as I have kept repeating each individual state is a contracting party and cannot be removed unless they are in breach of the treaty. Moving from one organisation to the other clearly does not constitute a breach.
There's no point repeating all this, but even if you were right, my original point earlier was that the Contracting Parties can agree whatever changes they like. If they jointly decide that the UK has some special status in the agreement then they can write that in.
< I know this really annoys you but it is a fact. No signatory can be removed from a treaty without being in breach of the terms. If they are forced out the whole treaty ceases to exist.
Why should it annoy me? I agree. We'll still be signatories, of course. We'll still be a Contracting Party. So what? That won't make us an EFTA state for the purposes of this agreement.
I''ve no idea why you can't understand the fact the we are signatories IN OUR CAPACITY AS AN EU MEMBER STATE, and the three EFTA states named in the treaty are on the other side of the agreement. Of course, the agreement will now have to be changed whatever happens.
So how did the previous EFTA states move to the EU without renegotiation of the treaty?
Do go check but you will find that there was no renegotiation in spite of their change of status.
More importantly there was no amendment to the treaty. All amendments including reasons are listed at the start of the treaty. Each time a new member joins the EU there is an amendment. There is no amendment for countries moving from EFTA to the EU.
And the reason? Because as I have kept repeating each individual state is a contracting party and cannot be removed unless they are in breach of the treaty. Moving from one organisation to the other clearly does not constitute a breach.
Isn't it just easier to get an amicable agreement to join EFTA and stay in the EEA, rather than using legal machinations to force our membership on them? I don't see what the issue is, the EU are going to try and bounce us into the EEA solution anyway. I don't see why we should get hostile over it.
i think I positively enjoy the doom and gloom, to an extent, in some S&M way. Also I haven't got a damn clue what to write next, so I just sit here and stare into space, anyway
Anyone got any ideas for a thriller? I pay folding money
Assuming it has to fit within your ouevre, options are limited. May I humbly propose 'The Earth Mother'. I see 'The Earth Mother' dealing with the travails of Carmella Batmagestic, founder of an inner-city charity for abandoned marine wildlife. All goes well with Squid's company, until unknown forces start taking a sinister interest in the charity's accounts. Any resemblance to persons alive or deceased purely coincidental.
The far left does not do deals. It is totally uncompromising. It has the members onside and so has total power.
And Nick Palmer voted for him. And still supports him. Incroyable
Nick was a communist, wasn't he? Comfortably off, totally unaffected by anything that the Tories might do, this is all just a wonderful game to him. The workers, the workers will rise, and punks and rastas and skins and people of every colour and creed will flock to follow the glorious leader and the bosses will be put in chains and we'll all own the means of production and isn't it all just so terribly exciting.
Meanwhile in the real world ...
Oh, FFS. You're so obsessed with me that you're dragging in my opinions of 45 years ago? Why don't you simply argue your case without worrying about what some ex-MP thinks?
You bewilder me, that's why. And you are typical of the Labour membership.
At a time when this country is facing an existential crisis the like of which it has not been through in peacetime and we need an effective opposition able to hold the government to account - not to mention the next one, which is likely to be led by a Leaver who has told a series of lies to the British people - you are not prepared to contemplate any Labour leader but Jeremy Corbyn, despite the fact that he has lost the confidence of not a few malcontents but 172 members of the PLP - around 80% of the total. In so doing, you are very happy to sacrifice Labour seats at the coming general election and Labour's credibility as a potential party of government, so depriving millions of people who desperately need a realistic alternative to the Tories any hope of having one.
It is utterly bizarre and hugely damaging. It will kill the Labour party.
I'm starting to think the brexit result has been absolutely perfect.
Retaining free trade and movement with the EU whilst regaining national sovereignty, the ability to sign free trade deals with the rest of the planet and Labour completely screwed for a generation. Oh and Scotland aren't going anywhere.
chris g @chrisg0000 7m7 minutes ago Me:FTSE100 UP 200 points, cancelling out all brexit losses Europhile:But its FTSE250 that matters Me: Its up 499 points Europhile: *silence*
Is it up because the markets no longer believe we will actually Brexit?
No, it's because nothing has really changed and everyone is just waiting to see what the next government is going to propose. If both of the final two are EEAers (which might happen) then for business not a lot changes.
chris g @chrisg0000 7m7 minutes ago Me:FTSE100 UP 200 points, cancelling out all brexit losses Europhile:But its FTSE250 that matters Me: Its up 499 points Europhile: *silence*
Is it up because the markets no longer believe we will actually Brexit?
You can read all manner of opinions. Everybody is very good at explaining things after they happen. Apparently the market is 'contrarian', or the market is having a 'buying spree'.
Fact of the matter is the UK ~ 3.5% of the world economy. Brexit was clearly a shock - the movement in the polls looked like it would be Bremain. The market had conniptions.
However, in the immediate future, nothing much is going to happen viz Brexit progress. Presumably, the market will look for other things to worry/get excited by.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
If that is Hollande's intention then he is not very good at politics.
Much like Rajoy, he doesn't seem to understand the mandate Sturgeon has been given by the Scottish Parliament or what she is there to do. Officially, she is seeking discussions with the EU to retain Scotlands membership because Scotland does not trust the UK to do that for them.
Statements like this quickly move her to the end game - a new Referendum. One she is primed to win at a canter.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.
Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. If/when it is, then the calculus will change.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago
Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450.
They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50".
Ironically save the City of London.
vs. UKIP's "leave means leave"
On the electoral map, huge swathes of England and Wales would turn from red to purple.
Perhaps so, but we may also see swathes of the Tories' richest constituencies turning from blue to red - eg Labour might lose Barnsley but gain Kensington.
Hahaha. Never going to happen, Surrey will never vote for Labour they just don't care about the E.U that much, no one apart from the non voting hippy Islington types do.
Kensington wasn't in Surrey last time I checked.
The young/middle aged rich city professional demographic which makes up a large chunk of the Tory vote in central and south west London is fizzing with anger. Such seats where the Lib Dems put up a strong challenge (eg Kingston, Twickenham, perhaps even Richmond) will be very hard for the Tories to hold IMO. Battersea, Putney and Wimbledon also vulnerable if Labour put someone vaguely electable into the leadership. Long term it's hard to see even Westminster and K&C voting for a Tory party that has sold out to the loony populist right and trashed the interests of the ultra wealthy.
I'm starting to think the brexit result has been absolutely perfect.
Retaining free trade and movement with the EU whilst regaining national sovereignty, the ability to sign free trade deals with the rest of the planet and Labour completely screwed for a generation. Oh and Scotland aren't going anywhere.
If we end up in the EEA it will have been worth it. Business will be happy, Labour voters unhappy, regaining sovereignty over our laws, no more ECJ. We can make it work.
The far left does not do deals. It is totally uncompromising. It has the members onside and so has total power.
And Nick Palmer voted for him. And still supports him. Incroyable
Nick was a communist, wasn't he? Comfortably off, totally unaffected by anything that the Tories might do, this is all just a wonderful game to him. The workers, the workers will rise, and punks and rastas and skins and people of every colour and creed will flock to follow the glorious leader and the bosses will be put in chains and we'll all own the means of production and isn't it all just so terribly exciting.
Meanwhile in the real world ...
Oh, FFS. You're so obsessed with me that you're dragging in my opinions of 45 years ago? Why don't you simply argue your case without worrying about what some ex-MP thinks?
You bewilder me, that's why. And you are typical of the Labour membership.
At a time when this country is facing an existential crisis the like of which it has not been through in peacetime and we need an effective opposition able to hold the government to account - not to mention the next one, which is likely to be led by a Leaver who has told a series of lies to the British people - you are not prepared to contemplate any Labour leader but Jeremy Corbyn, despite the fact that he has lost the confidence of not a few malcontents but 172 members of the PLP - around 80% of the total. In so doing, you are very happy to sacrifice Labour seats at the coming general election and Labour's credibility as a potential party of government, so depriving millions of people who desperately need a realistic alternative to the Tories any hope of having one.
It is utterly bizarre and hugely damaging. It will kill the Labour party.
Your point that Jezza does worse electorally than your candidate (who you cant even name) is tiresome and unproven.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago
Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450.
They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50".
Ironically save the City of London.
vs. UKIP's "leave means leave"
On the electoral map, huge swathes of England and Wales would turn from red to purple.
Perhaps so, but we may also see swathes of the Tories' richest constituencies turning from blue to red - eg Labour might lose Barnsley but gain Kensington.
Hahaha. Never going to happen, Surrey will never vote for Labour they just don't care about the E.U that much, no one apart from the non voting hippy Islington types do.
I believe the average Tory vote across Surrey is 60% and Labour is somewhere close to 12%. Labour do not stand a chance.
Exactly. But if Labour start saying there will still have to be freedom of movement I can see the angry wwc moving en masse to UKIP in Sunderland to give them the seats, the Leavers were much more passionate about their vote than the Remainders and from everything i've heard from the chattering classes tells me they STILL don't understand the resentment felt.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago Told PLP chair John Cryer is about to tell Corbyn he needs to resign.
Didn't we do that yesterday?
He's been told today by the Prime Minister. Leave, man. You think he's ever going to do what a bloody TORY tells him to do? He's superglued to the Labour leadership. And chained. Then pop-riveted to the Labour rulebook. With a human shield of members.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.
Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. If/when it is, then the calculus will change.
The market is beginning to get the feeling:
either, Art.50 will never be invoked,
or, an arrangement, [ EEA / EFTA / whatever ] will be cobbled which will the economics will be very close to what it is now.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago Told PLP chair John Cryer is about to tell Corbyn he needs to resign.
Didn't we do that yesterday?
JC1: You need to resign.
JC2: Fuck off !
Tempted (as a Tory) to walk into Cryer's constituency surgery and explain as a constituent of Leyton & Wansted the greatest issue I face is over the future of the Labour Party....
Total matched so far on the various next party leader markets
Next Con Leader: £629,963
Next Lab Leader: £94,100
Next Lib Dem Leader: £33 (thirty-three pounds)
Why would anyone bet on next Lib Dem leader ?
Tim is going nowhere and he faces no challengers.
You'd think these were ideal circumstances for a Lib Dem fightback, if they don't start polling in the double digits soon he might face a leadership challenge.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago Told PLP chair John Cryer is about to tell Corbyn he needs to resign.
Didn't we do that yesterday?
He's been told today by the Prime Minister. Leave, man. You think he's ever going to do what a bloody TORY tells him to do? He's superglued to the Labour leadership. And chained. Then pop-riveted to the Labour rulebook. With a human shield of members.
Brilliant move by Cameron. I detect a piece of Osbornism in that.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.
Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. If/when it is, then the calculus will change.
The market is beginning to get the feeling:
either, Art.50 will never be invoked,
or, an arrangement, [ EEA / EFTA / whatever ] will be cobbled which will the economics will be very close to what it is now.
Just want to get your opinion? Would you be happy if we just went for EEA membership no modifications? Keeping full membership of the single market and no modifications to free movement?
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.
And they will! Everyone hates the english. Ask any scot.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
If that is the case, then why Leave ?
Rocket boosters for Nigel Farage at the next GE ?
Have I mentioned my 500/1 bet?
May I enquire as to what your 500 / 1 bet is?
UKIP most seats at next General Election.
Was able to get £7.53 (I presume 10 Euro) on at Paddy Power just after the last election.
Shame it wasn't actually in Euros
It is currently at 33/1
35/1 on Betfair. But surely less likely than that?
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.
Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. If/when it is, then the calculus will change.
The market is beginning to get the feeling:
either, Art.50 will never be invoked,
or, an arrangement, [ EEA / EFTA / whatever ] will be cobbled which will the economics will be very close to what it is now.
So the EU = Hotel California. We can check out, but we can never leave.
Without telling the voters that at any point.
You think there won't be hell to pay for that?
No, we can leave, with a Tory soft Leaver at the helm. Or in 2020 we can have Nigel Farage ripping out the drip and the monitors and walking out the hospital, regardless of the prognosis...
Is Article 50 something to do with the number of MPs necessary to kick off a formal Labour leadership contest to put in place Jexit, in the event that Watson gives up on trying to get him to go on his own? Or is it to do with something else that is also taking ages and ages to kick off and may also never happen?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago Told PLP chair John Cryer is about to tell Corbyn he needs to resign.
Didn't we do that yesterday?
He's been told today by the Prime Minister. Leave, man. You think he's ever going to do what a bloody TORY tells him to do? He's superglued to the Labour leadership. And chained. Then pop-riveted to the Labour rulebook. With a human shield of members.
Brilliant move by Cameron. I detect a piece of Osbornism in that.
It's a great bit of positioning to be able to say something that's both entirely true *and* puts the Leader opposite in a difficult position.
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.
Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. If/when it is, then the calculus will change.
The market is beginning to get the feeling:
either, Art.50 will never be invoked,
or, an arrangement, [ EEA / EFTA / whatever ] will be cobbled which will the economics will be very close to what it is now.
Just want to get your opinion? Would you be happy if we just went for EEA membership no modifications? Keeping full membership of the single market and no modifications to free movement?
I'd love that. If Labour did come to its senses - not likely, I grant - it would not only salvage something from a very bad situation, but mean no Tory governments for the rest of my life :-)
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
If that is Hollande's intention then he is not very good at politics.
Much like Rajoy, he doesn't seem to understand the mandate Sturgeon has been given by the Scottish Parliament or what she is there to do. Officially, she is seeking discussions with the EU to retain Scotlands membership because Scotland does not trust the UK to do that for them.
Statements like this quickly move her to the end game - a new Referendum. One she is primed to win at a canter.
Especially if you let England & Wales vote in it this time.
I'm starting to think the brexit result has been absolutely perfect.
Retaining free trade and movement with the EU whilst regaining national sovereignty, the ability to sign free trade deals with the rest of the planet and Labour completely screwed for a generation. Oh and Scotland aren't going anywhere.
If we end up in the EEA it will have been worth it. Business will be happy, Labour voters unhappy, regaining sovereignty over our laws, no more ECJ. We can make it work.
It has been my aim for many years. It would suit me - and I think the country - perfectly.
So what is the immediate future of the Labour Party? There is a real possibility of Corbyn getting on the ballot paper and being re-elected. At that stage 200 MPs may form a new party. And if need be I will join them.
Comments
Have I missed something?
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
Any realistic realignment needs to incude Orange LDs, Liberal Labour and Wet Tories.
Baring betrayal by the politicians we are now on our way out of the EU. This means that the decision on where to proceed must be made on behalf of all the electorate, not just the 23% who have said they would not want the EFTA route.
In the medium term, it all depends who wins the philosophical day, France or Germany. As was mentioned earlier, the Anglo-American business model isn't universally admired. Bonus caps, transaction taxes and other issues could constrain European financial markets. There are plenty of worrying signs in the EU majors for everyone to chew on - it's not UK bad, Europe good.
I think the markets are going to calm down simply because the timetable is starting to surface - new UK leadership in September, next EU27 meeting 16th September, article 50 sometime in October or late September.
In the immediate future volatility is more likely due to news from the US or China.
Completely relaxed about Free Trade, Immigration, Co-operation in dealing with Climate Change etc - but not the political side ("US of E").
Watson has to be the candidate. If not anybody who wants to.
And the value of external earnings from those companies will be higher when repatriated to the UK. Is that right?
Was able to get £7.53 (I presume 10 Euro) on at Paddy Power just after the last election.
Shame it wasn't actually in Euros
It is currently at 33/1
Vs, Corbyn's Labour and a pro-EU SDPv2 fielding ex lab MP's, then yes, I expect UKIP would come through the middle in the Stoke-on-Trents, Doncasters and Sunderlands.
Me:FTSE100 UP 200 points, cancelling out all brexit losses
Europhile:But its FTSE250 that matters
Me: Its up 499 points
Europhile: *silence*
The amount of panicking and bleating in the last week has been absolutely ludicrous.
Do go check but you will find that there was no renegotiation in spite of their change of status.
More importantly there was no amendment to the treaty. All amendments including reasons are listed at the start of the treaty. Each time a new member joins the EU there is an amendment. There is no amendment for countries moving from EFTA to the EU.
And the reason? Because as I have kept repeating each individual state is a contracting party and cannot be removed unless they are in breach of the treaty. Moving from one organisation to the other clearly does not constitute a breach.
It's possible to read into those statements that the SNP are fucked.
I'm an investor, not a day trader. Intra-week movements don't particularly bother me. Trends do.
Yes because their organisational skills are proven!!
"Andrea Leadsom beats all the other candidates in Economic competence, Ability to unite the country and Integrity."
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2016/06/29/conservative-leadership-runners-riders-andrea-leadsom
Vote Leadsom!
At a time when this country is facing an existential crisis the like of which it has not been through in peacetime and we need an effective opposition able to hold the government to account - not to mention the next one, which is likely to be led by a Leaver who has told a series of lies to the British people - you are not prepared to contemplate any Labour leader but Jeremy Corbyn, despite the fact that he has lost the confidence of not a few malcontents but 172 members of the PLP - around 80% of the total. In so doing, you are very happy to sacrifice Labour seats at the coming general election and Labour's credibility as a potential party of government, so depriving millions of people who desperately need a realistic alternative to the Tories any hope of having one.
It is utterly bizarre and hugely damaging. It will kill the Labour party.
Retaining free trade and movement with the EU whilst regaining national sovereignty, the ability to sign free trade deals with the rest of the planet and Labour completely screwed for a generation. Oh and Scotland aren't going anywhere.
Fact of the matter is the UK ~ 3.5% of the world economy. Brexit was clearly a shock - the movement in the polls looked like it would be Bremain. The market had conniptions.
However, in the immediate future, nothing much is going to happen viz Brexit progress. Presumably, the market will look for other things to worry/get excited by.
Much like Rajoy, he doesn't seem to understand the mandate Sturgeon has been given by the Scottish Parliament or what she is there to do. Officially, she is seeking discussions with the EU to retain Scotlands membership because Scotland does not trust the UK to do that for them.
Statements like this quickly move her to the end game - a new Referendum. One she is primed to win at a canter.
Told PLP chair John Cryer is about to tell Corbyn he needs to resign.
Didn't we do that yesterday?
You can reback then
JC2: Fuck off !
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/time-george-osborne-go-go-now/
Too right, he should.
Quite convinced the upside is more likely and more profitable than the downside.
The young/middle aged rich city professional demographic which makes up a large chunk of the Tory vote in central and south west London is fizzing with anger. Such seats where the Lib Dems put up a strong challenge (eg Kingston, Twickenham, perhaps even Richmond) will be very hard for the Tories to hold IMO. Battersea, Putney and Wimbledon also vulnerable if Labour put someone vaguely electable into the leadership. Long term it's hard to see even Westminster and K&C voting for a Tory party that has sold out to the loony populist right and trashed the interests of the ultra wealthy.
Total matched so far on the various next party leader markets
Next Con Leader: £629,963
Next Lab Leader: £94,100
Next Lib Dem Leader: £33 (thirty-three pounds)
PM calling on Corbyn to go 'a good reason for him staying' - Livingstone
Give us a name and lets discuss their merits.
ABC is not a name
Tim is going nowhere and he faces no challengers.
either, Art.50 will never be invoked,
or, an arrangement, [ EEA / EFTA / whatever ] will be cobbled which will the economics will be very close to what it is now.
Still slumming it in the ivory towers? ..
Would be a good omen for him.
Without telling the voters that at any point.
You think there won't be hell to pay for that?
No, we can leave, with a Tory soft Leaver at the helm. Or in 2020 we can have Nigel Farage ripping out the drip and the monitors and walking out the hospital, regardless of the prognosis...
I've just taken £4 of the 560s available on Luciana Berger
So what is the immediate future of the Labour Party? There is a real possibility of Corbyn getting on the ballot paper and being re-elected. At that stage 200 MPs may form a new party. And if need be I will join them.
Oh dear how sad never mind