I wonder what percentage of people voted Leave because they had been assured that David Cameron would not resign. Like he had said in the House of Commons. Repeatedly.
Just a thought, is Faisal Islam a journo working for Sky or a tory/remain member of staff?
If I never saw Faisal again, it'd be too soon. You can take a man out of C4, but you can't take C4 out of the man. He's got an enormously high opinion of himself, wants to turn everything into a drama, and profoundly biased. His whole cleverdick manner has me reaching for the mute button.
I was very disappointed Sky employed him.
Typical.. don't like the message.. shoot the messenger
That's the problem. There isn't meant to be a 'message'.
Mr. Lowlander, one of the nice things about the Roman Republic is that the various jobs (quaestor, consul etc) actually had proper tasks to perform. There was no aedile for youth engagement [so far as I know].
It was the Labour heartlands of the NE that led the way to Brexit. Does that mean that Jezza is now more in touch with Labour grass root opinion ( if not UK opinion) than those resigning from his shadcab team yesterday.
An interesting option for Corbyn is to replace some of the resigning shadow ministers with the three most respected figures of Lexit - Gisela Stuart, Frank Field and Kelvin Hokpins. If the Europhiles object, tough - they've already jumped ship. And I say that as a Europhile myself. It would simply signal that Labour was responding seriously to the Lexit WWC.
Good thinking. Labour needs more intelligent decent realists like you.
I am still pro-eu, I think brexit is the wrong choice for our country (but potentially a good one long term for the EU itself, if not certain member states).
However, frankly, Remain lost. You can argue it was unfair, and it is indeed disappointing but not surprising to see Boris and other rowing back from campaign promises, but we should be pragmatic about it now, and try and influence the result to EEA, our next best bet.
Therefore, throwing back Boris' lies in his face is actually counter-productive.
In any case, all remain voters can be understood to have accepted free movement, and if even just 20% of leave voters are like most PB leavers here, they won't care much about FoM either. In other words there is a majority to keep FoM.
Remain Tories in particular should be unifying under this, to reassure big business, and as most immigration-leavers are in Labour northern seats, it won't be the Tories who pay the price for the 'betrayal' of the northern leavers.
Labour are screwed - they have lost Scotland, they are losing the northern seats, and if they make any moves to try and recapture the north they will lose the middle class ones to the Lib Dems or Greens.
The trouble is, as we're now finding out, many were Remainers first, Tories some way down the list.
Btw, if Scotland does go independent and stays in the EU, what are their proposed nationality requirements to become a citizen? If I have a grandparent who is 1/2 scottish can I claim citizenship - I think that was the case as laid out in their 2014 white paper.
I think an Independent Scotland might be in need of a wall...
I have an image of Sturgeon standing in front of a Breaking Point style poster - 57 million englishmen are coming to take your jobs!
It was the Labour heartlands of the NE that led the way to Brexit. Does that mean that Jezza is now more in touch with Labour grass root opinion ( if not UK opinion) than those resigning from his shadcab team yesterday.
An interesting option for Corbyn is to replace some of the resigning shadow ministers with the three most respected figures of Lexit - Gisela Stuart, Frank Field and Kelvin Hokpins. If the Europhiles object, tough - they've already jumped ship. And I say that as a Europhile myself. It would simply signal that Labour was responding seriously to the Lexit WWC.
Would Stuart et al go for it?
One of the (many) things which show how screwed Labour is, is that Gisela Stuart - the most impressive on either side, who monstered Eagle in the first debate, who could keep Labour alive in the North - is not being mentioned as a potential leader.
In 1975, the Labour government asked the same question. They received a 'yes' vote, so THEY proceeded with their plans. Had they received a 'No' vote, then as a responsible government, THEY would have proceeded to take us out.
That is how these things are meant to work. Harold wasn't a cheerleader of either side although he was in favour of IN.
I've no doubt that if the vote had gone against him, he would have proceeded with an alternative plan already prepared by the CS.
Jeremy Corbyn has replaced 10 of the shadow ministers who resigned (or were sacked in Hilary Benn’s case).
The reshuffle involves moving Emily Thornberry from shadow defence minister to shadow foreign secretary, and replacing her with the new MP for Norwich South Clive Lewis.
Diane Abbott is also promoted to shadow health secretary.
Here’s the full list: Shadow Foreign Secretary - Emily Thornberry
Shadow Health Secretary – Diane Abbott
Shadow Education Secretary – Pat Glass
Shadow Transport Secretary – Andy McDonald
Shadow Defence Secretary – Clive Lewis
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury – Rebecca Long-Bailey
Shadow International Development Secretary – Kate Osamor
Shadow Environment Food and Rural Affairs Secretary – Rachel Maskell
Shadow Voter Engagement and Youth Affairs – Cat Smith
Market turmoil, Boris rolling back on ending free movement, NHS £350m a week revealed to be bollocks, firms holding back or cancelling investment and hiring. What a surprise, not.
So its now been reduced to 'firms holding back or cancelling investment and hiring'.
We were told that all the car factories would shut down this week.
Nobody said that the car factories would shut this week. Typical abuse of the truth by a Leaver.
Btw, if Scotland does go independent and stays in the EU, what are their proposed nationality requirements to become a citizen? If I have a grandparent who is 1/2 scottish can I claim citizenship - I think that was the case as laid out in their 2014 white paper.
I think an Independent Scotland might be in need of a wall...
I have an image of Sturgeon standing in front of a Breaking Point style poster - 57 million englishmen are coming to take your jobs!
I think would be more like a Berlin Wall, designed to stop Scots fleeing.
I'm somewhat surprised that these people are accepting these posts. Can anyone actually believe that Labour could plausibly enter a GE campaign with Corbyn at the helm now?
Is it possible to agree to continued FoM as the price of Free Trade. and then once the deal is rubber stamped start using our reclaimeed national powers to reduce benefits for non-UK citizens?
The lack of immigration control would be hard to stomach for those for whom that was the main issue they voted. but it can easily be argued that a 52% vote means the views of the other side cannot be ignored. whether that reasoning is accepted is another matter. this may not matter to the conservatives who probably weren't going to get most of their votes anyway.
There is a really good point here that I am not sure on - if we did agree to FOM as part of EEA/EFTA, are we actually accepting the common citizenship of the EU? If not, are we not free to deny benefits to anyone who is coming from an EU country?
Mr Hannan said so in a TV interview. (Newsnight?)
He was talking about freedom of Labour (if you have a job offer, you can come to work). An end to EU Citizenship, and the ability to refuse entry to anyone.
I have to say I thought that Osborne's speech this morning was quite good, it had the right tone and emphasised many important points. But the contrast between it and some of the scare mongering during the campaign was obvious, and so I still think Osborne has to go quite soon.
'An interesting option for Corbyn is to replace some of the resigning shadow ministers with the three most respected figures of Lexit - Gisela Stuart, Frank Field and Kelvin Hokpins. If the Europhiles object, tough - they've already jumped ship. And I say that as a Europhile myself. It would simply signal that Labour was responding seriously to the Lexit WWC.'
Would any of those MP's want to be associated with Corbyn & IRA McDonnell ?
There's a very good article by Dominic Lawson in yesterday's STimes about Gisela's reasons for joining Leave.
Shadow Voter Engagement and Youth Affairs – Cat Smith
What a time to be alive!
Isn’t Cat Smith in trouble over election expenses?
I was reading a very good post on a new (to me) blogsite where the poster commented, inter alia, that up to now workers in the EU have been colleagues; now they will be competitors. I know that’s not strictly true, but it does highlight the changed relationship.
Is it possible to agree to continued FoM as the price of Free Trade. and then once the deal is rubber stamped start using our reclaimeed national powers to reduce benefits for non-UK citizens?
The lack of immigration control would be hard to stomach for those for whom that was the main issue they voted. but it can easily be argued that a 52% vote means the views of the other side cannot be ignored. whether that reasoning is accepted is another matter. this may not matter to the conservatives who probably weren't going to get most of their votes anyway.
There is a really good point here that I am not sure on - if we did agree to FOM as part of EEA/EFTA, are we actually accepting the common citizenship of the EU? If not, are we not free to deny benefits to anyone who is coming from an EU country?
Mr Hannan said so in a TV interview. (Newsnight?)
He was talking about freedom of Labour (if you have a job offer, you can come to work). An end to EU Citizenship, and the ability to refuse entry to anyone.
Careful, that's a concept that will strain the cerebral cortex of several remainers. Get your thinking caps on remainers, I know you can do it!
Jeremy Corbyn has replaced 10 of the shadow ministers who resigned (or were sacked in Hilary Benn’s case).
The reshuffle involves moving Emily Thornberry from shadow defence minister to shadow foreign secretary, and replacing her with the new MP for Norwich South Clive Lewis.
Diane Abbott is also promoted to shadow health secretary.
Here’s the full list: Shadow Foreign Secretary - Emily Thornberry
Shadow Health Secretary – Diane Abbott
Shadow Education Secretary – Pat Glass
Shadow Transport Secretary – Andy McDonald
Shadow Defence Secretary – Clive Lewis
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury – Rebecca Long-Bailey
Shadow International Development Secretary – Kate Osamor
Shadow Environment Food and Rural Affairs Secretary – Rachel Maskell
Shadow Voter Engagement and Youth Affairs – Cat Smith
I'm somewhat surprised that these people are accepting these posts. Can anyone actually believe that Labour could plausibly enter a GE campaign with Corbyn at the helm now?
He'll lead Labour into the next GE without doubt. Nick Palmer and his fellow Labour members are more interested in having him in place than in having a Labour PM.
I would be interested to know whether Conservative Leavers on here trust Johnson or May to actually deliver Brexit. Obviously they will say they will but are you happy with those assurances or would you prefer a leader who is more ideologically committed to Leave.
I won't be happy until Article 50 is triggered. It's pretty clear how unwilling most of the Establishment/media are to accept the will of the people. The last few days reminded me of the BBC over Hutton - and that's not a good thing.
I trust Gove completely.
Once the denial/anger phase is over - I'm a little anxious about the bargaining mindset. I don't believe in my head that anyone from Leave would be sucked in by that siren call. After 3 months of taking every insult going, they're not going to backtrack now.
I read Boris' article and took it as a pitch for PM, soothing words, healing wounds, listen to concerns da-de-da. It's typical of what every new winner says.
I'm very ambivalent about May - I really don't like her authoritarian streak, nor her endless side swapping for careerist reasons. She's a tough lady though and has the gravitas. Boris needs to show me he can be serious.
The Leave campaign are quite happy to keep Article 50 in the long grass, possibly for ever.
Not forever.the pressure to declare is too high and they'd be eaten alive if they don't at some point. Only a new offer from the eu could prevent it being declared - conspiracy would be that's why we want to wait to declare, to get one - but they have for once been very clear and self interest would mean it should be belied that there won't be. Add to that as the people's will has been shown, realistically only the people's will being shown to change is needed to not declare after all. And any second ref would probably be lost. Either half s million switchers, much higher turnout for remain but not for leave and Scotland turning out again for remain, none of which is likely, is needed.
Good day.
Won't take much to change the 'people's will', 1.9% of the total. I suspect that will be the case within a few weeks. Good point about Scotland though, they might vote Leave if a new referendum was held now.
*We* didn't say anything about migration in the campaign. That was all Nigel, and he's not the one in power.
Bwahahahaha. The WWC has as we all knew been sold a pup, 2 in fact with the bullshit about extra money for the NHS. Their anger will be a sight to behold.
Patrick. "They're now feeling pretty much the way a majority of the country has been feeling for over a quarter of a century."
On that subject I read this paragraph yesterday -
"this undoubtedly painful experience of being outvoted by people you do not identify with and do not understand is most likely a first for you, but for many Leave voters it is the story of every single day of their lives until now. When they wanted the right to elect and sack the people who made their own laws, they were mocked as “little Englanders”. When they were concerned about immigration, they were dismissed as racists. When they wondered why their jobs had been lost and not replaced but London was still booming, they were ignored as mere occupants of a regional scrapheap. When they put an England flag outside their house to support their country, they were sneered at by Shadow Cabinet ministers. They felt grief and confusion of being endlessly defeated on issues which they believed were common sense and obvious – the same grief you feel now, and not just once but for years on end."
As terrible as he is, I'd probably prefer Osborne over Boris. I trust him more, which is not much. But as a very mild remainer Maybis p rob ably better - not many leaver options.
I'm somewhat surprised that these people are accepting these posts. Can anyone actually believe that Labour could plausibly enter a GE campaign with Corbyn at the helm now?
He'll lead Labour into the next GE without doubt. Nick Palmer and his fellow Labour members are more interested in having him in place than in having a Labour PM.
I can't imagine that Nick and others don't have a point at which they think its completely untenable.
Edit: Lords leaving the ship now too. (As Scott_P mentioned)
*We* didn't say anything about migration in the campaign. That was all Nigel, and he's not the one in power.
Bwahahahaha. The WWC has as we all knew been sold a pup, 2 in fact with the bullshit about extra money for the NHS. Their anger will be a sight to behold.
Right, and they'll take it out on foreigners not the rich people who conned them. Works every time.
I'm somewhat surprised that these people are accepting these posts. Can anyone actually believe that Labour could plausibly enter a GE campaign with Corbyn at the helm now?
He'll lead Labour into the next GE without doubt. Nick Palmer and his fellow Labour members are more interested in having him in place than in having a Labour PM.
I can't imagine that Nick and others don't have a point at which they think its completely untenable.
Edit: Lords leaving the ship now too. (As Scott_P mentioned)
Short of Corbyn being exposed as a "Blairite" they are not going to turn on him. They have their party back.
Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.
Those wwc voters though can now guarantee UKIP a quarter of the vote and UKIP will be focused almost entirely on an anti immigration platform
Will UKIP exist in 2020?
A backstory during the referendum campaign was intense faction fighting within UKIP. I think Suzanne Evans was sacked 3 times.
If immigration falls significantly no, if as is more likely it does not change that much it maybe even increase its support perhaps under someone like Paul Nuttall
I apologise if some one has already made this observation... If a "get back in the EU" party set itself up with a single objective, to re-enter the EU, and once that has been achieved recall a general election.
Are there enough seats to galvanise all the remainers in the constituencies up and down England and Wales to coalesce around one party? I'm thinking along the model of the SNP post their referendum, where they seemed to manage to wholesale acquire all the independence voters, with all the other parties fighting over the pro union votes.
This would be a plan especially if a new PM wants a GE. It could even be done by the SNP.
SNP putting candidates across England and Wales....
As terrible as he is, I'd probably prefer Osborne over Boris. I trust him more, which is not much. But as a very mild remainer Maybis p rob ably better - not many leaver options.
You remind me, kle4, of all the old Tory snobs that couldn't bear the maverick Churchill to be their PM. For the first two years of his premiership they gave him a hard time, even during the Battle of Britain period. Many of them were appeasers of Germany and Hitler before the war. Are you yourself, a not so secret appeaser of the EU?
It was the Labour heartlands of the NE that led the way to Brexit. Does that mean that Jezza is now more in touch with Labour grass root opinion ( if not UK opinion) than those resigning from his shadcab team yesterday.
An interesting option for Corbyn is to replace some of the resigning shadow ministers with the three most respected figures of Lexit - Gisela Stuart, Frank Field and Kelvin Hokpins. If the Europhiles object, tough - they've already jumped ship. And I say that as a Europhile myself. It would simply signal that Labour was responding seriously to the Lexit WWC.
Would Stuart et al go for it?
One of the (many) things which show how screwed Labour is, is that Gisela Stuart - the most impressive on either side, who monstered Eagle in the first debate, who could keep Labour alive in the North - is not being mentioned as a potential leader.
I sincerely hope she's on the Brexit negotiation team. Her experience on the last Treaty is invaluable insight.
Toby Perkins was very plain speaking earlier about Labour failing to understand their own voters in the North. As @Danny565 noted, unless they wake up and take notice - they're stuffed.
The unhappy residents of Rochdale et al have stuck their tongues out. Patting them on the head isn't going to work now.
I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
Not accepting that. You cannot win a referendum with such huge huge consequences on the basis of ending Freedom of Movement then glibly opt for something that doesn't provide it and hope everybody is happy with that because it's a "compromise".
Millions of Leavers will feel duped and millions of Remainers will know you basically cheated your way to winning the vote.
Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.
Those wwc voters though can now guarantee UKIP a quarter of the vote and UKIP will be focused almost entirely on an anti immigration platform
Will UKIP exist in 2020?
A backstory during the referendum campaign was intense faction fighting within UKIP. I think Suzanne Evans was sacked 3 times.
If immigration falls significantly no, if as is more likely it does not change that much it maybe even increase its support perhaps under someone like Paul Nuttall
So it is likely then that before too long we will have the following:
1) No change in immigration 2) UKIP resurgent 3) UK "access" to single market 4) Cost of access = GBP contribution, following all single market rules, allowing ECJ to opine on application of single market rules, no input into single market rules. 5) "People" disillusioned with politics (not that they care or understand, or ever have done).
So billions upon billions of pounds of value destroyed to end up broadly where we were a month ago.
As terrible as he is, I'd probably prefer Osborne over Boris. I trust him more, which is not much. But as a very mild remainer Maybis p rob ably better - not many leaver options.
You remind me, kle4, of all the old Tory snobs that couldn't bear the maverick Churchill to be their PM. For the first two years of his premiership they gave him a hard time, even during the Battle of Britain period. Many of them were appeasers of Germany and Hitler before the war. Are you yourself, a not so secret appeaser of the EU?
Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.
Those wwc voters though can now guarantee UKIP a quarter of the vote and UKIP will be focused almost entirely on an anti immigration platform
Will UKIP exist in 2020?
A backstory during the referendum campaign was intense faction fighting within UKIP. I think Suzanne Evans was sacked 3 times.
If immigration falls significantly no, if as is more likely it does not change that much it maybe even increase its support perhaps under someone like Paul Nuttall
So it is likely then that before too long we will have the following:
1) No change in immigration 2) UKIP resurgent 3) UK "access" to single market 4) Cost of access = GBP contribution, following all single market rules, allowing ECJ to opine on application of single market rules, no input into single market rules. 5) "People" disillusioned with politics (not that they care or understand, or ever have done).
So billions upon billions of pounds of value destroyed to end up broadly where we were a month ago.
Perhaps the only way we can hope to get out of this mess is if Boris as PM has another change of mind.
He's now the best hope for Remain, ironically, as his opinions seem very flexible. I think a simple re-run would be hard to sell, but if Scotland leaves the UK, as it probably will, that changes the picture enough to make it worth asking the question again.
If Scotland leave it becomes is 46/54 vote instead of a 59/51 vote, no one is ever going to shift the 7-8m votes needed to change that, especially if the markets get through this week without a major nervous breakdown.
Maybe I'm bollocksing this up but IIUC Remain got 1,661,191 votes in Scotland vs 1,018,322 for Leave. So Remain would start 0.6 million behind where they were last time, in addition to their current 1.35 million deficit. They need to either flip 1 million voters, or mobilize / demobilize 2 million. That's not a trivial task, but it doesn't sound a priori impossible.
I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
Actually Lord Ashcrofts polling shows immigration is number two issue number one was policies should be made here.
I just love the way Leavers are now trying to pretend it wasn't immigration that won it. Priceless, just about every angry Leaver interviewed said it was immigration and no amount of Lord Ashcroft's "polling" is going to convince people otherwise.
I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.
It was the Labour heartlands of the NE that led the way to Brexit. Does that mean that Jezza is now more in touch with Labour grass root opinion ( if not UK opinion) than those resigning from his shadcab team yesterday.
An interesting option for Corbyn is to replace some of the resigning shadow ministers with the three most respected figures of Lexit - Gisela Stuart, Frank Field and Kelvin Hokpins. If the Europhiles object, tough - they've already jumped ship. And I say that as a Europhile myself. It would simply signal that Labour was responding seriously to the Lexit WWC.
I agree with your thinking but it's not going to happen. It would have had to be Shadow Cabinet rather than junior ministerial posts. I think Corbyn will genuinely be struggling to find enough willing to endorse his leadership to fill vacancies in the latter. So far he's instead promoted Emily Thornberry and Pat Glass - not the actions of someone who really appreciates the parlous state of Labour's remaining WWC vote.
Your point though applies to the team that any new Labour leader appoints. Stuart in particular is now a household name and her appointment in any new Labour Shadow Cabinet could go a long way towards giving a signal to C2DEs who voted Leave that Labour is serious about regaining their trust.
Cameron has an opportunity to rescue some of his reputation and his legacy. He could have a reshuffle today to oust Ozzy and empower some of the Brexiters. Yes - I know. He'd more likely cartwheel naked down Whitehall. But making Gove Deputy PM or Chancellor and giving Boris a chief negotiator role or some such would help. He should at least very publically tell all the Project Teddy In The Corner mob to STFU. It's still his job as PM to do the right thing for the country and all this infantile backtracking the day after a political revolution is NOT helping either country or any of the protagonists' own reputations.
Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.
Those wwc voters though can now guarantee UKIP a quarter of the vote and UKIP will be focused almost entirely on an anti immigration platform
Will UKIP exist in 2020?
A backstory during the referendum campaign was intense faction fighting within UKIP. I think Suzanne Evans was sacked 3 times.
If immigration falls significantly no, if as is more likely it does not change that much it maybe even increase its support perhaps under someone like Paul Nuttall
So it is likely then that before too long we will have the following:
1) No change in immigration 2) UKIP resurgent 3) UK "access" to single market 4) Cost of access = GBP contribution, following all single market rules, allowing ECJ to opine on application of single market rules, no input into single market rules. 5) "People" disillusioned with politics (not that they care or understand, or ever have done).
So billions upon billions of pounds of value destroyed to end up broadly where we were a month ago.
Guess you should have run a better campaign
Perhaps so. I think they went full on 150% Project Fear because they worried that they wouldn't win. And so it became self-defeating, partly.
("Partly", because UK politics runs on hyperbole; I'm not sure an "on the one hand..." campaign would have been successful either.)
I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
Actually Lord Ashcrofts polling shows immigration is number two issue number one was policies should be made here.
I just love the way Leavers are now trying to pretend it wasn't immigration that won it. Priceless, just about every angry Leaver interviewed said it was immigration and no amount of Lord Ashcroft's "polling" is going to convince people otherwise.
They can claim whatever they want. There was leave and remain campaigns. They both put forward their positions. But the question wasnt whether or not you agree with either side, the question was to leave or remain in the EU.
You can leave the EU. If we leave the EU, it is utterly essential that we remain in the single market. Remaining in the single market will not make one jot of difference to free movement, and it wont even remotely bother industry.
Had Remain won 51 to 49%, I suppose Labour would have really got the wipe out in the Northern Brexit voting heartlands. A bit like SLAB after the winning referendum after a lackluster campaign. Corbyn would have been Lamont and the new one pushed with great hope by the London would have become Murphy.
Ironically if Murphy had been able to hang on in E.Ren he would now be the one pushed with great hope by London Labour (though pushed even harder by himself).
I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.
I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.
Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.
Those wwc voters though can now guarantee UKIP a quarter of the vote and UKIP will be focused almost entirely on an anti immigration platform
Will UKIP exist in 2020?
A backstory during the referendum campaign was intense faction fighting within UKIP. I think Suzanne Evans was sacked 3 times.
If immigration falls significantly no, if as is more likely it does not change that much it maybe even increase its support perhaps under someone like Paul Nuttall
So it is likely then that before too long we will have the following:
1) No change in immigration 2) UKIP resurgent 3) UK "access" to single market 4) Cost of access = GBP contribution, following all single market rules, allowing ECJ to opine on application of single market rules, no input into single market rules. 5) "People" disillusioned with politics (not that they care or understand, or ever have done).
So billions upon billions of pounds of value destroyed to end up broadly where we were a month ago.
Guess you should have run a better campaign
Perhaps so. I think they went full on 150% Project Fear because they worried that they wouldn't win. And so it became self-defeating, partly.
("Partly", because UK politics runs on hyperbole; I'm not sure an "on the one hand..." campaign would have been successful either.)
Fewer insults, less scaremongering and a hint to making things work better and they would have had it imo.
Cameron has an opportunity to rescue some of his reputation and his legacy. He could have a reshuffle today to oust Ozzy and empower some of the Brexiters. Yes - I know. He'd more likely cartwheel naked down Whitehall. But making Gove Deputy PM or Chancellor and giving Boris a chief negotiator role or some such would help. He should at least very publically tell all the Project Teddy In The Corner mob to STFU. It's still his job as PM to do the right thing for the country and all this infantile backtracking the day after a political revolution is NOT helping either country or any of the protagonists' own reputations.
Cameron wont do anything to help Boris, and why should he.
I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
Actually Lord Ashcrofts polling shows immigration is number two issue number one was policies should be made here.
But one of those policies that should be made here is immigration Basically that is what Hannan has been saying for years, he doesn't necessarily want immigration reduced, he just wants to British people to be in charge of it, a view with which I personally have much sympathy (so that we can chuck out various undesirables).
But that was most definitely not the prospectus on which you won the referendum.
Would Leave have won saying " If we win we be joining another trading bloc which will still allow Freedom of Movement from the EU including Turkey (as they will be joining imminently as we were told) and still mean we will be contributing to the EU budget"?
I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.
Comments
Labour needs more intelligent decent realists like you.
That is how these things are meant to work. Harold wasn't a cheerleader of either side although he was in favour of IN.
I've no doubt that if the vote had gone against him, he would have proceeded with an alternative plan already prepared by the CS.
It's not rocket science.
Loads of people: 'YES!!"
He was talking about freedom of Labour (if you have a job offer, you can come to work). An end to EU Citizenship, and the ability to refuse entry to anyone.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2016-06-26/comment/with-that-x-in-the-box-we-just-voted-to-bring-back-our-democracy-v3rkvb5b6
I was reading a very good post on a new (to me) blogsite where the poster commented, inter alia, that up to now workers in the EU have been colleagues; now they will be competitors. I know that’s not strictly true, but it does highlight the changed relationship.
"The single market is a phrase."
An interesting and ingenious proposal, but sadly too complicated for poor old Jezza's brain.
https://t.co/iD6m8uuaIh
*We* didn't say anything about migration in the campaign. That was all Nigel, and he's not the one in power.
Bwahahahaha. The WWC has as we all knew been sold a pup, 2 in fact with the bullshit about extra money for the NHS. Their anger will be a sight to behold.
"They're now feeling pretty much the way a majority of the country has been feeling for over a quarter of a century."
On that subject I read this paragraph yesterday -
"this undoubtedly painful experience of being outvoted by people you do not identify with and do not understand is most likely a first for you, but for many Leave voters it is the story of every single day of their lives until now. When they wanted the right to elect and sack the people who made their own laws, they were mocked as “little Englanders”. When they were concerned about immigration, they were dismissed as racists. When they wondered why their jobs had been lost and not replaced but London was still booming, they were ignored as mere occupants of a regional scrapheap. When they put an England flag outside their house to support their country, they were sneered at by Shadow Cabinet ministers. They felt grief and confusion of being endlessly defeated on issues which they believed were common sense and obvious – the same grief you feel now, and not just once but for years on end."
Edit: Lords leaving the ship now too. (As Scott_P mentioned)
Are there enough seats to galvanise all the remainers in the constituencies up and down England and Wales to coalesce around one party? I'm thinking along the model of the SNP post their referendum, where they seemed to manage to wholesale acquire all the independence voters, with all the other parties fighting over the pro union votes.
This would be a plan especially if a new PM wants a GE. It could even be done by the SNP.
SNP putting candidates across England and Wales....
Indeed, if PLP does split. Who better to be a leading figure in the new grouping? It'll need some policy heft if nothing else.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-36334488
Toby Perkins was very plain speaking earlier about Labour failing to understand their own voters in the North. As @Danny565 noted, unless they wake up and take notice - they're stuffed.
The unhappy residents of Rochdale et al have stuck their tongues out. Patting them on the head isn't going to work now.
https://twitter.com/brian_bilston/status/747007241753079808
Millions of Leavers will feel duped and millions of Remainers will know you basically cheated your way to winning the vote.
Popcorntastic!
1) No change in immigration
2) UKIP resurgent
3) UK "access" to single market
4) Cost of access = GBP contribution, following all single market rules, allowing ECJ to opine on application of single market rules, no input into single market rules.
5) "People" disillusioned with politics (not that they care or understand, or ever have done).
So billions upon billions of pounds of value destroyed to end up broadly where we were a month ago.
I just love the way Leavers are now trying to pretend it wasn't immigration that won it. Priceless, just about every angry Leaver interviewed said it was immigration and no amount of Lord Ashcroft's "polling" is going to convince people otherwise.
I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.
Your point though applies to the team that any new Labour leader appoints. Stuart in particular is now a household name and her appointment in any new Labour Shadow Cabinet could go a long way towards giving a signal to C2DEs who voted Leave that Labour is serious about regaining their trust.
("Partly", because UK politics runs on hyperbole; I'm not sure an "on the one hand..." campaign would have been successful either.)
You can leave the EU. If we leave the EU, it is utterly essential that we remain in the single market. Remaining in the single market will not make one jot of difference to free movement, and it wont even remotely bother industry.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2016/06/27/01003-20160627ARTFIG00009-le-brexit-arlesienne-de-l-ete-2016.php
Go make a difference.
SPLIIIITTTTEEEERRRRRSSSSSSS
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_
Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
Would Leave have won saying " If we win we be joining another trading bloc which will still allow Freedom of Movement from the EU including Turkey (as they will be joining imminently as we were told) and still mean we will be contributing to the EU budget"?
Headlined 'June 23rd might be Leave's Cannae, they may have won the battle but will they lose the war'
I had actually predicted what Boris had written in his column.