Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron is going, Boris is in hiding and Labour faces civil
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron is going, Boris is in hiding and Labour faces civil war. So who will lead Britain?
Last Thursday’s Brexit vote was truly an historic event in our country’s history. The consequences for British politics will take time to play out. Right now the country is tense. Since David Cameron’s resignation Friday morning there is a political vacuum at the heart of power and sense of uncertainty in the air. Only a fool would predict with any degree of certainty what happens next.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
No Turning Back Quite. Much as I find the result disappointing, it is what it is on a good turnout by a clear margin. Seeking to subvert it would be more damaging than actually leaving the EU.
Enter Boris (or May)? May. Boris is going to get crucified as one by one LEAVE's promises turn to dust.....
Labour in Meltdown Remote politicians ignore grass roots. Where have I read that before?
Who will Lead Britain Good question. Once the immediate shock of the result dies down I suspect a degree of calm will return.....
What's so fascinating is I'd happily declare the above wrong by this afternoon. The pace of change is so stark.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
I also favour grandfathering in those with residence, even if they have no work at present. If applied to our citizens in Europe, then the retirees in Spain etc... would also be grandfathered in. I can see that actually being appealing to both Spain and Portugal - maybe even certain regions of France.
Colour me sceptical......
Normally, Germany would be able to force this through but this is a process where any one country - let alone several of them - can throw a monkey wrench into.
That's without addressing the point that anything along those lines would absolutely guarantee the break-up of the UK.
Despite the most historic vote last week it is the Labour meltdown that manages to seieze just about every front page of the newspapers this morning forcing the referendum onto the inside pages.
You really have to hand it to them.
http://news.sky.com/story/1717934/mondays-national-newspaper-front-pages
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36637232
It's interesting that the option that the British government could chose not to invoke Article 50 is being absolutely discounted. After the experience with Tsipras, the EU has clearly decided that the use of plebiscites in order to provide leaders with a stronger negotiating hand has to be stamped on hard.
It is the concept of "EU Citizenship" that means that people from countries as diverse as Ireland and Romaina have to be treated the same by the UK. As has been said by many in recent months, unless and until there is a European Demos the people will not be on board with the tighter integration the EU apparatchiks are so fond of. Look at how they treated Greece for a good example of how this works in practice.
Here they clamped down hard on the use of foreign agents, after a lot of them on the subcontinent were found to be basically slave owners stealing salaries.
Farage must think Christmas has come early.
Labour divided into two factions. Pro EU socially liberal drones and hardline neo trots, neither of which remotely represent the views of constituents outside London.
Well yes sort off. Cameron thought he would win as did most others including me so I am not sure about the "negotiating position" because there wasn't one. Cameron had already returned from
MunichBrussels with his bit of paper in hand saying he'd achieved a great deal. Why then the need to re renegotiate what was said to be a great deal?Unless it wasn't a great deal after all and the EU knew that.
They also need to massively improve their vetting processes to avoid embarrassment down the line, they should hire an external security company to do the vetting - no matter how much it costs it will be worth it to avoid the headlines.
Possibly correct. I think there would be a downward effect but immigration may still end up being too high.
However, the question is whether conceding this would be worth doing for a EU-UK FTA? If not, will the EU realistically agree to an FTA given that we would basically be offering them nothing in return. I know that logic dictates that an FTA is best for both parties, but we are talking about the EU here....
Instead they're going to be faced with even higher unemployment, benefits being slashed even further, no visible change to immigration and an even more cash-strapped NHS.
Boris won't care, they don't vote tory anyway.
Here in Japan foreigners are generally eligible for benefits, but there's some discretion on the part of local authorities, whereas in theory Japanese nationals would be able to claim as of right. However, in practice this doesn't seem to be very different, because when local authorities don't want to pay someone benefits they seem to be quite good at denying them to nationals who technically have a right to them as well. (Occasionally this results in people starving to death.)
The process wasn't hard in all cases as a company handled it for me. The longest was the USA and also Australia. In Australia I had to be replaced by an Australian national and I was only allowed to represent the interests of my company when there.
I also had to pay taxes in some countries but no access to any form of benefits or housing. In most cases they would deport if you fell into that situation.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo I also had to sign a form saying that after my term I would actually return to the UK rather than try and stay on illegally and seek asylum or residence
I really wish that those most vocal on this subject would actually see what happens in the real world rather than just what they think happens.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/
Tears before bed time....
There is a lot of headless chicken stuff at present from the politicians and the commentariat. We need to distinguish between what we need to do right now and what can wait. Most stuff can wait and will be done better after a period of reflection.
Leave must mean Leave. The vote must be respected. It may be a colossal mistake but the public can't say they weren't warned of the consequences. They have to be seen through.
"Who will lead Britain?" is the most important question with a mundane answer - there is going to be a Conservative leadership election and it looks very likely now that Boris Johnson will win.
How will he lead it? He has dispensed with Vote Leave's prospectus and manifesto (just what exactly was the meaning of those documents?) but he seems, even after publishing his own mission statement last night, to be hazy about his actual aims. The rest of us will need to be bystanders and hope that the Conservative rank and file can elicit more sense from him than we have had so far.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07gyxdf/newsnight-24062016
You refer to "our country", but given the votes in Scotland and NI, this is the end of the UK. The entity of E&W alone last existed as a completely separate state in the first Elizabethan era as a small relatively impoverished country on the fringes of Europe.
The shambles at the top of both the Tory and Labour parties is exacerbating the crisis. Only the SNP are showing leadership.
The EU is in no mood to a deal with London that would in any way be acceptable to the vast majority of the people who voted Leave - there is a need to restrict immigration to <100k pa (parts of England have been swamped over the last 10-20 years and the infrastructure cannot cope) and to stop the torrent of EU rules and regulations and the malign influence of the ECJ/ECHR - that cannot be achieved by trying to remain within the Single Market or joining EFTA/EAA. England will survive, in a way that it would not have as a predominantly White Anglo-Saxon Protestant country if it had remained within the EU.
Its the wrong decision overall imho, but I understand why remain lost. Just speak to the ordinary man in the street about it.. They wanted their country back, which of course is nonsense, but the line worked
The lies told by leave will come home to roost over time.
We get the politician we vote for, if we are outside the EU and the nation regrets it, it is all our faults collectively.
What if those same people see that Remain exaggerated but were basically right. If Brexit causes this country economic problems even another recession with job losses, more expensive petrol and prices?
Isn't it rather sadistic to just say that you have made your bed and must now lie on it? The difficult part is to see whether Leavers have changed their minds, since opinion polls have not covered themselves with glory.
Perhaps the only way we can hope to get out of this mess is if Boris as PM has another change of mind.
No-one wants to touch it with a barge pole and for good reason.
Cameron has once again played a blinder!!
I just you are underplaying the immigration issue - it was THE topic of the referendum. For the majority, it was ONLY about immigration.
Ireland starts to set out its stall post Brexit, leave corporation tax alone, we need more concessions;
or we'll quit too
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/eu-has-our-corporation-tax-in-its-sights-after-uk-quits-34835831.html
So surely free movement is a red line? Surely once Brexit actually happens, EU citizens should be subject to the same immigration rules as non EU migrants?
The most important line for me is "Britain will not get a trade deal immediately - it has to exit first, and then apply for them as a "third country"."
It's truly bizarre.
How many business would go to the wall in the interim?
It's really only England and Wales that need leadership. Scotland has an over abundance of it with arrogant and hubristic Nicola, while N.Ireland is stirring up it's on special juices.
This is the Hour and this is the Time that Boris must take up the burden he has so long wanted, or retire from all leadership ambition forever; A written speech in the Telegraph is not enough!
One thing I've really noticed is how effed off so many journalists are over Brexit - there's toys throwing en masse. Michael Deacon of the DT has totally lost it, Anna Botting was having a near hysterical meltdown on Sky - the list goes on and on. It's quite extraordinary. They're acting like grounded 14yrs olds.
Only one of these things is true, so the question is which one. Since the people making the decision are right-wing free-traders who care a lot about market access and not at all about the concerns of working class voters in Labour seats, the most likely outcome is that they prioritize market access and hope the resulting sense of betrayal hits Labour harder than them.
The Leave campaign ran a xenophobic and racist campaign. This tw*t (Boris) signed up to that.
I think we will row back from Brexit - but the collateral damage the referendum is going to inflict on the UK is going to be huge.
A lot of people who voted "Leave" are now saying "what have we done - I didn't really mean it"
Of course, the PB Burleys haven't cottoned onto this yet. I would refer them to SeanT - he seems to get it now!
Their view is that Labour are unelectable so Progressive Labour car say and do these things and the likes of Hunt will be re-elected. No wonder they want to overturn the referendum result, the - San empowered and angry mass electorate is the last thing these elites want.
So yes I think Corbyn has failed to lead. But this lot had no intention of being led by him.
"We are open for business".
being visible and on the telly proves nothing... its actions that matter
But I don't blame those currently seeking to unseat Corbyn. They understand just how unelectable he is and what damage a Boris premiership will do to the people Labour is supposed to care about. Once defeated, hopefully they'll stick at it. But, if not, they'll at least know they tried to do something to prevent the Labour party's death as a potential party of government.
It was never a political movement, more a jobs and welfare scheme for the unemployable (e.g. Stephen Kinnock, the Milibands, Balls, Burnham).
And very successful it has been. If only it had been so efficient at finding such very good jobs for ordinary people, it wouldn't be in this awful mess now.