Progressive Labour must be the most out of touch political movement in history. They want to go against the mass Labour movement - the bulk of ordinary members and the union movement - to select a leader who will campaign on a position (pro-EU) rejected by the majority of voters in their constituencies (e.g. 70% in Tristan Hunt's Stoke). They will also look to do things like abstain on cuts, argue that supporting austerity is important to look electable etc.
Their view is that Labour are unelectable so Progressive Labour car say and do these things and the likes of Hunt will be re-elected. No wonder they want to overturn the referendum result, the - San empowered and angry mass electorate is the last thing these elites want.
So yes I think Corbyn has failed to lead. But this lot had no intention of being led by him.
Or alternatively they realise all to well that last Thursday a chunk of Labour voters Suicide Bombed our place in Europe. The PLP know our place in Europe is dead. But they also know it's the Labour Party that will now have to scrap the remains of those communities out the blast crater?
Progressive Labour must be the most out of touch political movement in history. They want to go against the mass Labour movement - the bulk of ordinary members and the union movement - to select a leader who will campaign on a position (pro-EU) rejected by the majority of voters in their constituencies (e.g. 70% in Tristan Hunt's Stoke). They will also look to do things like abstain on cuts, argue that supporting austerity is important to look electable etc.
Their view is that Labour are unelectable so Progressive Labour car say and do these things and the likes of Hunt will be re-elected. No wonder they want to overturn the referendum result, the - San empowered and angry mass electorate is the last thing these elites want.
So yes I think Corbyn has failed to lead. But this lot had no intention of being led by him.
And your evidence for saying they want to overturn the referendum result is?
Corbyn is going nowhere. He'll win a new leadership election, though with less support than before, and lead Labour to catastrophic defeat at the next general election. Labour members, such as Nick Palmer, are far more interested in making sure Corbyn is the party's leader than they are in removing the Tories from power. They'll happily watch Boris lead the Brexit negotiations if it means preventing a non-Jezza from taking over the Labour leadership. He is their comfort blanket and what's cosier and more alluring than that? Especially when you're comfortable enough not to be personally affected by the consequences of Tory rule.
But I don't blame those currently seeking to unseat Corbyn. They understand just how unelectable he is and what damage a Boris premiership will do to the people Labour is supposed to care about. Once defeated, hopefully they'll stick at it. But, if not, they'll at least know they tried to do something to prevent the Labour party's death as a potential party of government.
Good post SO - 100% agree.
Just thinking about what a Boris premiership will do the most vulnerable in our society just does not bear thinking about.
@Jack_Blanchard_: Osborne effectively confirms he still thinks a recession is coming because of the Brexit vote. This is not the most reassuring of speeches
Article 50 delayed to new PM, no change to anything until then, £250bn available from BoE to provide stability.
"We are open for business".
£250 bn = 30 years' worth of EU contributions.
They don't actually spend it, and it is not real money, unless the BoE decide to intervene to support the Pound which would be utterly ridiculous - even if they do so, the 'cost' is the net loss on their positions when they are unwound and it might end up costing nothing.
All they are really saying is that they will provide liquidity to the banking system which they have to do anyway and which they do with newly created money in return for collateral. So not quite the same thing as sending money to the EU.
Leave votes were only partly about immigration. To me it was very much a case of too much EU legislation being passed without the voters being consulted. Brown's infamous signing of the Lisbon treaty stands starkly there/. People could do nothing about it until the referendum came. ...Its not just Brown either. The courts interpretation of Human rights, stopping is sending back criminals was yet another thing to infuriate. Blair's uncontrolled immigration and Dave's promise about it that was clearly not tenable added to the feeling of being trampled on. and the voters bit back.
Its the wrong decision overall imho, but I understand why remain lost. Just speak to the ordinary man in the street about it.. They wanted their country back, which of course is nonsense, but the line worked
The lies told by leave will come home to roost over time.
We get the politician we vote for, if we are outside the EU and the nation regrets it, it is all our faults collectively.
"Leave votes were only partly about immigration"
I just you are underplaying the immigration issue - it was THE topic of the referendum. For the majority, it was ONLY about immigration.
@StewartWood: My translation of Osborne's statement: "I'm off to be Foreign Secretary. One of my colleagues who backed Leave can have my job. Good luck."
Perhaps the only way we can hope to get out of this mess is if Boris as PM has another change of mind.
He's now the best hope for Remain, ironically, as his opinions seem very flexible. I think a simple re-run would be hard to sell, but if Scotland leaves the UK, as it probably will, that changes the picture enough to make it worth asking the question again.
We cannot ask it again. It means joining the EURO. The Great British Public would not stomach that.. ever.
I think that's right (although I wonder whether the UK may have done well out of the Euro as Germany has, it's the weaker southern economies that the Euro has hurt). No, I was suggesting that Boris could change his mind and not actually leave the EU, rather than leaving and then re-applying. I was saying it would be sadistic to force the Leavers ( and the other half of the country) to go through the negative consequences if they change their minds.
@StewartWood: My translation of Osborne's statement: "I'm off to be Foreign Secretary. One of my colleagues who backed Leave can have my job. Good luck."
@FraserWhyte81: Osborne's leadership bid: don't say anything for days, let Boris and Gove look utterly clueless, offer hope by being calm and having plan
Really? The next scheduled budget will feel like an "emergency" budget as it needs to take cognisance of the underlying economic situations and outlook.
Corbyn is going nowhere. He'll win a new leadership election, though with less support than before, and lead Labour to catastrophic defeat at the next general election. Labour members, such as Nick Palmer, are far more interested in making sure Corbyn is the party's leader than they are in removing the Tories from power. They'll happily watch Boris lead the Brexit negotiations if it means preventing a non-Jezza from taking over the Labour leadership. He is their comfort blanket and what's cosier and more alluring than that? Especially when you're comfortable enough not to be personally affected by the consequences of Tory rule.
But I don't blame those currently seeking to unseat Corbyn. They understand just how unelectable he is and what damage a Boris premiership will do to the people Labour is supposed to care about. Once defeated, hopefully they'll stick at it. But, if not, they'll at least know they tried to do something to prevent the Labour party's death as a potential party of government.
Good post SO - 100% agree.
Just thinking about what a Boris premiership will do the most vulnerable in our society just does not bear thinking about.
Sadly, a majority of Labour members don't care about that. They'd rather have Jezza leading the party than a non-Jezza Labour figure leading the country.
Incredibly weak sauce from Osborne. The Q&A after was embarrassing as journos threw his own statements back at him. It is going to be hard for him to survive this, market turmoil he has talked up himself will get blamed, at least partly on him.
Incredibly weak sauce from Osborne. The Q&A after was embarrassing as journos threw his own statements back at him. It is going to be hard for him to survive this, market turmoil he has talked up himself will get blamed, at least partly on him.
yes he spent the last 3 months ramping up the gloom so he's hardly in a position to deliver sunshine.
I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
I set out a very similar program yesterday. It seems inevitable that this is where we are heading but we can only head there under new leadership. Keiran's excellent thread header sets out the problem: leave won but the remainers are still in charge, at least nominally.
I think Cameron's October timetable is looking somewhat leisurely at the moment. There is a genuine air of crisis and we do need someone at the helm. Whether Cameron is willing to be that person, even on an interim basis, should be a lot clearer when he gives his statement to the House of Commons today. I would hope that he will nominate either Boris or Gove to conduct the negotiations with the EU right now. What title they are given does not matter, what does matter is that these negotiations start and the markets are assured that life is going to go on.
@StewartWood: My translation of Osborne's statement: "I'm off to be Foreign Secretary. One of my colleagues who backed Leave can have my job. Good luck."
He's trying to sound all PMish - well it's a bit late now after spending 3 months trying to short his own country. Totally irresponsible.
he looks burnt out
He does. TBH, if he and Cameron hadn't been such knobs during the campaign, I'd feel sorry for them now. It's very hard to implement your own demise. Like others, I've been the one to turn the lights off.
But Cameron and Osborne burnt all their own bridges - no one did it to them bar the voters.
@StewartWood: My translation of Osborne's statement: "I'm off to be Foreign Secretary. One of my colleagues who backed Leave can have my job. Good luck."
If there's one thing that I particularly enjoy on this site, it's being lectured to by a range of expatriates. Distance, binoculars and strong views seem to run together.
@patrickwintour: Gradual consensus in Tory leadership is to try to maintain access to EU single market. But the price - see Norway - is free movement & fees.
@TomChivers: This probably is what will happen, isn't it? A stodgy compromise that everybody, on both sides, hates utterly. https://t.co/36oDBJ33fo
Leave votes were only partly about immigration. To me it was very much a case of too much EU legislation being passed without the voters being consulted. Brown's infamous signing of the Lisbon treaty stands starkly there/. People could do nothing about it until the referendum came. ...Its not just Brown either. The courts interpretation of Human rights, stopping is sending back criminals was yet another thing to infuriate. Blair's uncontrolled immigration and Dave's promise about it that was clearly not tenable added to the feeling of being trampled on. and the voters bit back.
Its the wrong decision overall imho, but I understand why remain lost. Just speak to the ordinary man in the street about it.. They wanted their country back, which of course is nonsense, but the line worked
The lies told by leave will come home to roost over time.
We get the politician we vote for, if we are outside the EU and the nation regrets it, it is all our faults collectively.
"Leave votes were only partly about immigration"
I just you are underplaying the immigration issue - it was THE topic of the referendum. For the majority, it was ONLY about immigration.
The most important line for me is "Britain will not get a trade deal immediately - it has to exit first, and then apply for them as a "third country"."
If I understand correctly, the implications of that are terrifying.
How many business would go to the wall in the interim?
You are easily terrified, how does the 80% of the world not in EU survive
@patrickwintour: Gradual consensus in Tory leadership is to try to maintain access to EU single market. But the price - see Norway - is free movement & fees.
@TomChivers: This probably is what will happen, isn't it? A stodgy compromise that everybody, on both sides, hates utterly. https://t.co/36oDBJ33fo
Awesome
I think the Tories basically have to pick Boris at this point. He's the only one who can sell the sell-out.
He's trying to sound all PMish - well it's a bit late now after spending 3 months trying to short his own country. Totally irresponsible.
he looks burnt out
He does. TBH, if he and Cameron hadn't been such knobs during the campaign, I'd feel sorry for them now. It's very hard to implement your own demise. Like others, I've been the one to turn the lights off.
But Cameron and Osborne burnt all their own bridges - no one did it to them bar the voters.
yes despite all the current frothing and sour grapes, the basic question still is why did Cameron do it ? Politically he didnt need to,
1. jezza was in place so no pressure 2. he wasnt really in a hurry 3. most kippers wouldnt believe hed hold an EUref anyway 4. he could have set any question he wanted
whichever way you look at it this has to rate as one of the biggest political miscalculations of modern times.
@faisalislam: Osborne not rolling back from any Treasury analysis on economic impact - indeed because of Art 50 delay, says uncertainty will last longer
@patrickwintour: Gradual consensus in Tory leadership is to try to maintain access to EU single market. But the price - see Norway - is free movement & fees.
@TomChivers: This probably is what will happen, isn't it? A stodgy compromise that everybody, on both sides, hates utterly. https://t.co/36oDBJ33fo
Awesome
I think the Tories basically have to pick Boris at this point. He's the only one who can sell the sell-out.
He's the one who will have to take the blame when it happens, for sure.
Corbyn is going nowhere. He'll win a new leadership election, though with less support than before, and lead Labour to catastrophic defeat at the next general election. Labour members, such as Nick Palmer, are far more interested in making sure Corbyn is the party's leader than they are in removing the Tories from power. They'll happily watch Boris lead the Brexit negotiations if it means preventing a non-Jezza from taking over the Labour leadership. He is their comfort blanket and what's cosier and more alluring than that? Especially when you're comfortable enough not to be personally affected by the consequences of Tory rule.
But I don't blame those currently seeking to unseat Corbyn. They understand just how unelectable he is and what damage a Boris premiership will do to the people Labour is supposed to care about. Once defeated, hopefully they'll stick at it. But, if not, they'll at least know they tried to do something to prevent the Labour party's death as a potential party of government.
Good post SO - 100% agree.
Just thinking about what a Boris premiership will do the most vulnerable in our society just does not bear thinking about.
Sadly, a majority of Labour members don't care about that. They'd rather have Jezza leading the party than a non-Jezza Labour figure leading the country.
A non-Jezza figure who says fuck your opinions on the EU and austerity and the realities of your lives, TINA, you will vote for us will not lead the country. Or get elected in Labour areas.
Incredibly weak sauce from Osborne. The Q&A after was embarrassing as journos threw his own statements back at him. It is going to be hard for him to survive this, market turmoil he has talked up himself will get blamed, at least partly on him.
yes he spent the last 3 months ramping up the gloom so he's hardly in a position to deliver sunshine.
Yes but he had a window to emphasis "in a campaign, getting a message, but can work to prevent and avoid".
He didn't. He re-emphasised - outside of the political campaign - that the economy will tank. Has any Chancellor in the entire history of the United Kingdom ever made such a forecast? I do not think so.
Excellent thread header, exactly what I'd expect from a Spurs fan, coincidentally it is the MP for Tottenham saying the referendum should be overturned in parliament. Listen Lammy, you are there to serve us, not the other way round, shut the fuck up and do what we tell you, you are a public servant.
I was out and about yesterday, trains were running, people eating and drinking in pubs, all schools and hospitals will be open as usual today. We don't need politicians to run our lives, we get by perfectly well without them. If we don't have a PM for a couple of years we'll be just fine, some might argue it'll be better.
The most important line for me is "Britain will not get a trade deal immediately - it has to exit first, and then apply for them as a "third country".
If I understand correctly, the implications of that are terrifying.
How many business would go to the wall in the interim?
I just don't understand why this is such a problem. Average tariffs to import to the EU under WTO rules are around 2-3%. The pound moves this much in a bad week and it just fell 7%, so exporters to the EU are already net more competitive even if we had to pay tariffs tomorrow. And don't forget that many UK businesses import materials, which are currently subject to the EU common external tariff but there is no reason why the UK would necessarily have to maintain tariffs on imports. Every other country in the World manages to trade with the EU through the tariff barrier. It is not the best possible outcome, but why is it assumed to be such a huge issue?
Think of our corresponding tariff on all those BMW's an Mercedes, Audi's etc.
He's trying to sound all PMish - well it's a bit late now after spending 3 months trying to short his own country. Totally irresponsible.
he looks burnt out
He does. TBH, if he and Cameron hadn't been such knobs during the campaign, I'd feel sorry for them now. It's very hard to implement your own demise. Like others, I've been the one to turn the lights off.
But Cameron and Osborne burnt all their own bridges - no one did it to them bar the voters.
yes despite all the current frothing and sour grapes, the basic question still is why did Cameron do it ? Politically he didnt need to,
1. jezza was in place so no pressure 2. he wasnt really in a hurry 3. most kippers wouldnt believe hed hold an EUref anyway 4. he could have set any question he wanted
whichever way you look at it this has to rate as one of the biggest political miscalculations of modern times.
Indeed it was. Major handled the many loons within the Tory far better than Cameron has done.
He's trying to sound all PMish - well it's a bit late now after spending 3 months trying to short his own country. Totally irresponsible.
he looks burnt out
He does. TBH, if he and Cameron hadn't been such knobs during the campaign, I'd feel sorry for them now. It's very hard to implement your own demise. Like others, I've been the one to turn the lights off.
But Cameron and Osborne burnt all their own bridges - no one did it to them bar the voters.
This is the core to it.
He is sticking by his guns to try and salvage his career and if the entire country is screwed, it's no skin off his nose. Utterly odious and traitorous behaviour. Osborne is unfit for public office as a parking attendant let alone Chancellor.
Corbyn is going nowhere. He'll win a new leadership election, though with less support than before, and lead Labour to catastrophic defeat at the next general election. Labour members, such as Nick Palmer, are far more interested in making sure Corbyn is the party's leader than they are in removing the Tories from power. They'll happily watch Boris lead the Brexit negotiations if it means preventing a non-Jezza from taking over the Labour leadership. He is their comfort blanket and what's cosier and more alluring than that? Especially when you're comfortable enough not to be personally affected by the consequences of Tory rule.
But I don't blame those currently seeking to unseat Corbyn. They understand just how unelectable he is and what damage a Boris premiership will do to the people Labour is supposed to care about. Once defeated, hopefully they'll stick at it. But, if not, they'll at least know they tried to do something to prevent the Labour party's death as a potential party of government.
Good post SO - 100% agree.
Just thinking about what a Boris premiership will do the most vulnerable in our society just does not bear thinking about.
Sadly, a majority of Labour members don't care about that. They'd rather have Jezza leading the party than a non-Jezza Labour figure leading the country.
A non-Jezza figure who says fuck your opinions on the EU and austerity and the realities of your lives, TINA, you will vote for us will not lead the country. Or get elected in Labour areas.
@FraserWhyte81: Osborne's leadership bid: don't say anything for days, let Boris and Gove look utterly clueless, offer hope by being calm and having plan
He's trying to sound all PMish - well it's a bit late now after spending 3 months trying to short his own country. Totally irresponsible.
he looks burnt out
He does. TBH, if he and Cameron hadn't been such knobs during the campaign, I'd feel sorry for them now. It's very hard to implement your own demise. Like others, I've been the one to turn the lights off.
But Cameron and Osborne burnt all their own bridges - no one did it to them bar the voters.
yes despite all the current frothing and sour grapes, the basic question still is why did Cameron do it ? Politically he didnt need to,
1. jezza was in place so no pressure 2. he wasnt really in a hurry 3. most kippers wouldnt believe hed hold an EUref anyway 4. he could have set any question he wanted
whichever way you look at it this has to rate as one of the biggest political miscalculations of modern times.
I honestly can't fathom any of it - the rushing, the accounts via Charles of him not trying much, ramping a crap deal, insulting his own voters.
The book of the story will be a must read.
NB Gove just showed Jezza how to deal with a pack of journalists chasing you down the road.
Corbyn is going nowhere. He'll win a new leadership election, though with less support than before, and lead Labour to catastrophic defeat at the next general election. Labour members, such as Nick Palmer, are far more interested in making sure Corbyn is the party's leader than they are in removing the Tories from power. They'll happily watch Boris lead the Brexit negotiations if it means preventing a non-Jezza from taking over the Labour leadership. He is their comfort blanket and what's cosier and more alluring than that? Especially when you're comfortable enough not to be personally affected by the consequences of Tory rule.
But I don't blame those currently seeking to unseat Corbyn. They understand just how unelectable he is and what damage a Boris premiership will do to the people Labour is supposed to care about. Once defeated, hopefully they'll stick at it. But, if not, they'll at least know they tried to do something to prevent the Labour party's death as a potential party of government.
Good post SO - 100% agree.
Just thinking about what a Boris premiership will do the most vulnerable in our society just does not bear thinking about.
Sadly, a majority of Labour members don't care about that. They'd rather have Jezza leading the party than a non-Jezza Labour figure leading the country.
A non-Jezza figure who says fuck your opinions on the EU and austerity and the realities of your lives, TINA, you will vote for us will not lead the country. Or get elected in Labour areas.
Nope.
Look, don't worry - Jezza is going nowhere. Neither is Labour, mind. But that, of course, is a price worth paying.
@DianaJohnsonMP: After @hilarybennmp sacking yesterday I have now written to Jeremy Corbyn to resign as a Shadow Foreign and Commonwealth Office minister.
The Amazing thought to me is that if Scottish Independence had happened in 2014 things would be a lot calmer because at least one side had a fucking plan.
Incredibly weak sauce from Osborne. The Q&A after was embarrassing as journos threw his own statements back at him. It is going to be hard for him to survive this, market turmoil he has talked up himself will get blamed, at least partly on him.
yes he spent the last 3 months ramping up the gloom so he's hardly in a position to deliver sunshine.
Yes but he had a window to emphasis "in a campaign, getting a message, but can work to prevent and avoid".
He didn't. He re-emphasised - outside of the political campaign - that the economy will tank. Has any Chancellor in the entire history of the United Kingdom ever made such a forecast? I do not think so.
It was appalling.
It looks and feels like scorched earth policy even if it isn't intended that way. Of course Dave and George are hoist by their own petard now as they actually now need a recession to prove their point. A rather surreal position.
The most important line for me is "Britain will not get a trade deal immediately - it has to exit first, and then apply for them as a "third country".
If I understand correctly, the implications of that are terrifying.
How many business would go to the wall in the interim?
I just don't understand why this is such a problem. Average tariffs to import to the EU under WTO rules are around 2-3%. The pound moves this much in a bad week and it just fell 7%, so exporters to the EU are already net more competitive even if we had to pay tariffs tomorrow. And don't forget that many UK businesses import materials, which are currently subject to the EU common external tariff but there is no reason why the UK would necessarily have to maintain tariffs on imports. Every other country in the World manages to trade with the EU through the tariff barrier. It is not the best possible outcome, but why is it assumed to be such a huge issue?
Think of our corresponding tariff on all those BMW's an Mercedes, Audi's etc.
Think of the benefits bill for the unemployed Nissan workers.
@DianaJohnsonMP: After @hilarybennmp sacking yesterday I have now written to Jeremy Corbyn to resign as a Shadow Foreign and Commonwealth Office minister.
I don't really think the stage managed "one an hour" resignation procession is really having much cut through any more. If anything, they are now undermining any effect they are trying to create.
Incredibly weak sauce from Osborne. The Q&A after was embarrassing as journos threw his own statements back at him. It is going to be hard for him to survive this, market turmoil he has talked up himself will get blamed, at least partly on him.
yes he spent the last 3 months ramping up the gloom so he's hardly in a position to deliver sunshine.
Yes but he had a window to emphasis "in a campaign, getting a message, but can work to prevent and avoid".
He didn't. He re-emphasised - outside of the political campaign - that the economy will tank. Has any Chancellor in the entire history of the United Kingdom ever made such a forecast? I do not think so.
It was appalling.
It looks and feels like scorched earth policy even if it isn't intended that way. Of course Dave and George are hoist by their own petard now as they actually now need a recession to prove their point. A rather surreal position.
Definitely off out now
The Tories need to ditch Dave and Gideon as soon as possible. They are not only damaging the country, the tarnish will stain the Tories - possibly for a generation.
A Chancellor, outside a campaign, talking down the UK economy. Utterly unbelievable.
The most important line for me is "Britain will not get a trade deal immediately - it has to exit first, and then apply for them as a "third country".
If I understand correctly, the implications of that are terrifying.
How many business would go to the wall in the interim?
I just don't understand why this is such a problem. Average tariffs to import to the EU under WTO rules are around 2-3%. The pound moves this much in a bad week and it just fell 7%, so exporters to the EU are already net more competitive even if we had to pay tariffs tomorrow. And don't forget that many UK businesses import materials, which are currently subject to the EU common external tariff but there is no reason why the UK would necessarily have to maintain tariffs on imports. Every other country in the World manages to trade with the EU through the tariff barrier. It is not the best possible outcome, but why is it assumed to be such a huge issue?
Think of our corresponding tariff on all those BMW's an Mercedes, Audi's etc.
Think of the benefits bill for the unemployed Nissan workers.
@faisalislam: Osborne not rolling back from any Treasury analysis on economic impact - indeed because of Art 50 delay, says uncertainty will last longer
Yep, I don't envy the Chancellor who has to deliver the next budget. Watching Boris defend it will be a grim pleasure.
If it didn't adversely affect millions of ordinary lives it would be comedy gold to see the purveyors of the most deceitful campaign in British political history brought to their knees by their lies.
@tobyperkinsmp: I have informed Jeremy Corbyn that I am resigning from my post of Shadow Armed Forces Minister. My letter attached. https://t.co/8ui8lGHVUP
The most important line for me is "Britain will not get a trade deal immediately - it has to exit first, and then apply for them as a "third country".
If I understand correctly, the implications of that are terrifying.
How many business would go to the wall in the interim?
I just don't understand why this is such a problem. Average tariffs to import to the EU under WTO rules are around 2-3%. The pound moves this much in a bad week and it just fell 7%, so exporters to the EU are already net more competitive even if we had to pay tariffs tomorrow. And don't forget that many UK businesses import materials, which are currently subject to the EU common external tariff but there is no reason why the UK would necessarily have to maintain tariffs on imports. Every other country in the World manages to trade with the EU through the tariff barrier. It is not the best possible outcome, but why is it assumed to be such a huge issue?
Think of our corresponding tariff on all those BMW's an Mercedes, Audi's etc.
Think of the benefits bill for the unemployed Nissan workers.
Its not absolutely certain Boris is going to get the Tory Leadership, he's not been impressive since Friday and though has a lot of supporters, he has enemies as well.
It depends who runs against him but if its Theresa May, she has a very good chance. The Daily Mail for example will not back Boris, they have already started running pro-May articles, like "Only May can stop Boris", "May to go to war with Boris" etc etc. Although May backed Remain, she was so low-key as to be invisible and she has repeatedly called for reform of free movement and gave a very strong/harsh immigration speech at the Tory party conference. Marcus Roberts on the Spectator podcast says Labour fear May more than Boris.
Perhaps the only way we can hope to get out of this mess is if Boris as PM has another change of mind.
He's now the best hope for Remain, ironically, as his opinions seem very flexible. I think a simple re-run would be hard to sell, but if Scotland leaves the UK, as it probably will, that changes the picture enough to make it worth asking the question again.
If Scotland leave it becomes is 46/54 vote instead of a 59/51 vote, no one is ever going to shift the 7-8m votes needed to change that, especially if the markets get through this week without a major nervous breakdown.
Just a thought, is Faisal Islam a journo working for Sky or a tory/remain member of staff?
If I never saw Faisal again, it'd be too soon. You can take a man out of C4, but you can't take C4 out of the man. He's got an enormously high opinion of himself, wants to turn everything into a drama, and profoundly biased. His whole cleverdick manner has me reaching for the mute button.
I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
If I represented Polish voters I would say piss off. The requirement for a job offer in advance is a huge hurdle even for people with no problem actually finding a job, and the idea that you're going to have to (presumably) pay taxes and national security contributions without being eligible for benefits is so obviously unfair it's hard to imagine them being able to sell it to their constituents.
Agreed, what about freelancers, or people who want to move here and retire. Then there's students, spouses and children.
Given that a fair chunk of Leave support (30%) will have the Tyndall/Hannan view on free movement it not even necessarily true that keeping free movement would against a popular mandate.
Is it possible to agree to continued FoM as the price of Free Trade. and then once the deal is rubber stamped start using our reclaimeed national powers to reduce benefits for non-UK citizens?
The lack of immigration control would be hard to stomach for those for whom that was the main issue they voted. but it can easily be argued that a 52% vote means the views of the other side cannot be ignored. whether that reasoning is accepted is another matter. this may not matter to the conservatives who probably weren't going to get most of their votes anyway.
Perhaps the only way we can hope to get out of this mess is if Boris as PM has another change of mind.
He's now the best hope for Remain, ironically, as his opinions seem very flexible. I think a simple re-run would be hard to sell, but if Scotland leaves the UK, as it probably will, that changes the picture enough to make it worth asking the question again.
If Scotland leave it becomes is 46/54 vote instead of a 59/51 vote, no one is ever going to shift the 7-8m votes needed to change that, especially if the markets get through this week without a major nervous breakdown.
Gideon is certainly trying his damnedest to make sure the markets don't get through this week.
Market turmoil, Boris rolling back on ending free movement, NHS £350m a week revealed to be bollocks, firms holding back or cancelling investment and hiring. What a surprise, not.
@haakanjonsson: Boris on #BREXIT from UEFA: "We will still play the EURO Championships, only change is we won't accept penalties or offsides against us."
I would be interested to know whether Conservative Leavers on here trust Johnson or May to actually deliver Brexit. Obviously they will say they will but are you happy with those assurances or would you prefer a leader who is more ideologically committed to Leave.
KP says "let’s hope that the current generation of political leaders is up to the task". It's the hope that hurts, Kieran - you know and I know that they aren't.
And Laurie Penny is right about "lizard brains" however much you (and I) wish she wasn't. If you (or I) went walkabout in Romford Market, would we expect to survive?
Here are some lizard policies for Nigel and his chums:
- scrap all Equal Opportunity legislation - a large annual Poll Tax on graduates (except UKIP members) - introduce US-style firearms legislation "as a requirement of TTIP" - annual referenda on the three questions that get most support on internet petitions - scrap MPs pay and allowances - presumption of "justifiable homicide" in respect of anyone who kills a Labour MP, councillor or activist
Better be quick, Nigel, or Boris might get there first
If there's one thing that I particularly enjoy on this site, it's being lectured to by a range of expatriates. Distance, binoculars and strong views seem to run together.
Economic migrants shirley?
I can't speak for the others but yes clearly I came here to make less than a quarter of what I made in the UK, the economic case was unbeatable
Those who accept the referendum as the will of the British people, the majority.
And a large minority who believe they were cheated because ... (1) lies were told and only Remainers are allowed to lie (2) the people voting are low-class chavs or elderly who shouldn't be allowed to vote, and (3) superior people like them clearly know best.
And they were shocked when people thought they had the right to air their own opinions.
It's worrying that such blindness exists. In a democracy ... no, this is silly, these children have had their favourite toy taken away and they're sulking. They hope the house sets on fire and they'll feel better about it. What's even more worrying is that these children include the CoE and other MPs.
How about appointing Carney as CoE? At least he's acting like an adult.
Market turmoil, Boris rolling back on ending free movement, NHS £350m a week revealed to be bollocks, firms holding back or cancelling investment and hiring. What a surprise, not.
So its now been reduced to 'firms holding back or cancelling investment and hiring'.
We were told that all the car factories would shut down this week.
Comments
Delivered by a Brexit chancellor.
"You Brexit, you pays for it"
Just thinking about what a Boris premiership will do the most vulnerable in our society just does not bear thinking about.
All they are really saying is that they will provide liquidity to the banking system which they have to do anyway and which they do with newly created money in return for collateral. So not quite the same thing as sending money to the EU.
No, I was suggesting that Boris could change his mind and not actually leave the EU, rather than leaving and then re-applying. I was saying it would be sadistic to force the Leavers ( and the other half of the country) to go through the negative consequences if they change their minds.
quelle surprise
Really? The next scheduled budget will feel like an "emergency" budget as it needs to take cognisance of the underlying economic situations and outlook.
When will people wake up?
I think Cameron's October timetable is looking somewhat leisurely at the moment. There is a genuine air of crisis and we do need someone at the helm. Whether Cameron is willing to be that person, even on an interim basis, should be a lot clearer when he gives his statement to the House of Commons today. I would hope that he will nominate either Boris or Gove to conduct the negotiations with the EU right now. What title they are given does not matter, what does matter is that these negotiations start and the markets are assured that life is going to go on.
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2016/06/20/it-shouldn-t-happen-to-a-radio-presenter-46-interviewing-george-osborne-the-man-with-no-post-brexit-plan
Just give us the careers of Corbyn and BoJo too...
But Cameron and Osborne burnt all their own bridges - no one did it to them bar the voters.
@TomChivers: This probably is what will happen, isn't it? A stodgy compromise that everybody, on both sides, hates utterly. https://t.co/36oDBJ33fo
Awesome
Meanwhile George had a plan.
Oh well....laters.
1. jezza was in place so no pressure
2. he wasnt really in a hurry
3. most kippers wouldnt believe hed hold an EUref anyway
4. he could have set any question he wanted
whichever way you look at it this has to rate as one of the biggest political miscalculations of modern times.
He didn't. He re-emphasised - outside of the political campaign - that the economy will tank. Has any Chancellor in the entire history of the United Kingdom ever made such a forecast? I do not think so.
It was appalling.
I was out and about yesterday, trains were running, people eating and drinking in pubs, all schools and hospitals will be open as usual today. We don't need politicians to run our lives, we get by perfectly well without them. If we don't have a PM for a couple of years we'll be just fine, some might argue it'll be better.
He is sticking by his guns to try and salvage his career and if the entire country is screwed, it's no skin off his nose. Utterly odious and traitorous behaviour. Osborne is unfit for public office as a parking attendant let alone Chancellor.
Dust off your passports.
You're both off to Brussels to show the EU how you take back control.
#pricks
The book of the story will be a must read.
NB Gove just showed Jezza how to deal with a pack of journalists chasing you down the road.
The Conservative Party has a big problem with its Jeremiah.
Look, don't worry - Jezza is going nowhere. Neither is Labour, mind. But that, of course, is a price worth paying.
A rather surreal position.
Definitely off out now
https://twitter.com/pgmcnamara/status/747196746963509248
Incidentally, you want that bet about the population rising or falling in the next year? Yesterday you predicted mass emigration.
A Chancellor, outside a campaign, talking down the UK economy. Utterly unbelievable.
If it didn't adversely affect millions of ordinary lives it would be comedy gold to see the purveyors of the most deceitful campaign in British political history brought to their knees by their lies.
It depends who runs against him but if its Theresa May, she has a very good chance. The Daily Mail for example will not back Boris, they have already started running pro-May articles, like "Only May can stop Boris", "May to go to war with Boris" etc etc. Although May backed Remain, she was so low-key as to be invisible and she has repeatedly called for reform of free movement and gave a very strong/harsh immigration speech at the Tory party conference. Marcus Roberts on the Spectator podcast says Labour fear May more than Boris.
@bharatmalkani: @fdelond Boris basically wants a divorce while maintaining regular sex. Which actually isn't surprising, given it's Boris.
http://gu.com/p/4myyg?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard < It seems it was about immigration after all.
I was very disappointed Sky employed him.
has anyone actually heard of ciaran jenkins ?
his mum still does his hair by the way.
Given that a fair chunk of Leave support (30%) will have the Tyndall/Hannan view on free movement it not even necessarily true that keeping free movement would against a popular mandate.
The lack of immigration control would be hard to stomach for those for whom that was the main issue they voted. but it can easily be argued that a 52% vote means the views of the other side cannot be ignored. whether that reasoning is accepted is another matter. this may not matter to the conservatives who probably weren't going to get most of their votes anyway.
The Brexiteers are almost as paranoid as the Corbynistas now.
"I can't believe the media bias against my guy. How dare they print what he actually said!"
the issue is our MPs giving up on whole communities.
you're an even bigger eejit than I thought
@STJamesl: Corbyn loyalist canvassing support for Lisa Nandy claim MPs
Some 19s available on Betfair
And Laurie Penny is right about "lizard brains" however much you (and I) wish she wasn't. If you (or I) went walkabout in Romford Market, would we expect to survive?
Here are some lizard policies for Nigel and his chums:
- scrap all Equal Opportunity legislation
- a large annual Poll Tax on graduates (except UKIP members)
- introduce US-style firearms legislation "as a requirement of TTIP"
- annual referenda on the three questions that get most support on internet petitions
- scrap MPs pay and allowances
- presumption of "justifiable homicide" in respect of anyone who kills a Labour MP, councillor or activist
Better be quick, Nigel, or Boris might get there first
BBC reporting 3 more Labour MPs have resigned – how will Corbyn fill the gaps in his front bench when he struggled to do so first time round?
Those who accept the referendum as the will of the British people, the majority.
And a large minority who believe they were cheated because ... (1) lies were told and only Remainers are allowed to lie (2) the people voting are low-class chavs or elderly who shouldn't be allowed to vote, and (3) superior people like them clearly know best.
And they were shocked when people thought they had the right to air their own opinions.
It's worrying that such blindness exists. In a democracy ... no, this is silly, these children have had their favourite toy taken away and they're sulking. They hope the house sets on fire and they'll feel better about it. What's even more worrying is that these children include the CoE and other MPs.
How about appointing Carney as CoE? At least he's acting like an adult.
We were told that all the car factories would shut down this week.