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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron is going, Boris is in hiding and Labour faces civil

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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,434

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just had an email.

    I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.

    :sweat_smile:
    I'm willing to accept a peerage to become Shadow Leader of the Lords.

    For the party you understand.
    Disappointing news. Corbitz has taken my punting for ermine as disloyalty and he's sacked me.

    Bugger.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    edited June 2016
    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    The membership don't want him.

    Can you link me evidence for that please ?

    I'm a betting man and I'd prefer to go off of hard information rather than what people wish might be the case. Last time I checked he had a big mandate, I accept things may have changed though.
    He didn't win a majority of the party membership at peak Corbyn, do you think his popularity has increased since then? Seems unlikely to me.
    This is the same logic people use to show the SNP are 'unwanted' in Scotland. 49.79% in a 4 horse race.....
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,105

    Curious as to what the site thinks will happen first: Article 50's triggering, or a General Election?

    Article 50 will be signed - not entirely convinced an early GE will even take place.

    Easier to sign A50 than jump through the hoops to get a GE.
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    Pulpstar said:

    As the top female contender for the Labour leadership, I'm surprised that HenryG's pick Lisa Nandy hasn't yet resigned from the Shadow Cabinet or is she playing some clever tactical game, the precise intricacies of which have escaped me?

    Jeremy will resign before Nandy or McDonnell. They'd love for Corbyn to stay but if he is forced out then they'll be ready for a continuation of the project.
    If you're right and I suspect you are, then one or other (and I suspect Nandy) must have a great chance of becoming leader, since the Labour Membership was enthusiastically behind what Corbyn was trying to achieve, even if they overestimated his ability to deliver same.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    We shouldn't confuse Free Trade with the Single Market. My reading of the Leadsom tweet is she knows Boris/Gove have settled on EEA which means Free Movement. She'll run on Single Market withdrawal as well and concluding a FTA with the EU. This will end Free Movement. Interesting times.
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    Wanderer said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening

    She is not the brightest button.

    Ffs, just after I "invested" in her.
    This is the woman who had to ask whether climate change is real after being appointed Minister of State for Energy.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening

    She is not the brightest button.

    We appear to be in a world where negotiation is a one way street.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    Anyway @DanSmith Can you back up "seems unlikely" with some actual evidence ?
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924

    OllyT said:

    Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.


    The WWC were always going to be the cannon fodder in the referendum, stoke them up over immigration to get the win then row back and ignore them the moment you have got what you want. Has Matthew Elliot's odious paw prints all over it.
    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc
    I agree but the Tory right have got what they have always wanted, it won't bother them a jot they got Brexit by perpetrating a giant con.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    DanSmith said:

    From Guido
    (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.

    (Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.

    (Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.

    (Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.

    (to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)

    Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
    Has any political leader elected by an overwhelming majority ever been kicked out 9 months later by a group not representative of those tat elected him.?
    Nope, that's how bad JC is.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    currystar said:

    Indigo said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening
    I think we have to accept a small but finite chance that politicians have been talking to each other and actually know a little more about what is happening and what is possible than we do.
    So do you think that the EU will allow us the "perfect world" of not being a member of the EU, paying nothing in, having closed borders yet have access to the free market? The EU will try to make this divorce as difficult as possible so to discourage other countries from having referendums.
    I think that Angela Leadsom used to be a Managing Director for one fund manager, and Cheif Investment Officer for another large one, so whatever she might be, she probably isn't "thick".

    Where did anyone say anything about paying nothing ?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Credit Suisse: UK lead indicators are already consistent with a recession and will likely now worsen

    There's a phrase I'm searching for here...

    Osborne
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening

    I thought she was meant to be the bright one. Jeez
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Indigo said:

    I think that Angela Leadsom used to be a Managing Director for one fund manager, and Cheif Investment Officer for another large one, so whatever she might be, she probably isn't "thick".

    Which makes it even worse
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    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Assuming the Tories don't go crazy, and choose Boris as PM, why would he go for a snap election, especially with Corbyn and Momentum smashing Labour to bits. He'd want to demonstrate once in office, he's an effective PM before going for a GE. In the meantime, Labour disintegrate and UKIP lose their reason to be, other than being a replacement choice for labour voters up north.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just had an email.

    I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.

    :sweat_smile:
    I'm willing to accept a peerage to become Shadow Leader of the Lords.

    For the party you understand.
    Disappointing news. Corbitz has taken my punting for ermine as disloyalty and he's sacked me.

    Bugger.
    I hope when Cameron accepts his Peerage he takes the title Lord North.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    The PLP should now take its chance and lead as Progressive Labour from parliament. Let's see how the nutters on the far left like the apples of never being seen at PMQs and a decent interesting centrist representing the new party. You can have your three quidders. Parliament only recognises the leader in the commons.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,174

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just had an email.

    I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.

    :sweat_smile:
    I'm willing to accept a peerage to become Shadow Leader of the Lords.

    For the party you understand.
    Disappointing news. Corbitz has taken my punting for ermine as disloyalty and he's sacked me.

    Bugger.
    Throw your hat in the ring for the top job instead....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Credit Suisse: UK lead indicators are already consistent with a recession and will likely now worsen

    There's a phrase I'm searching for here...

    "Talking down the economy" ?

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    stjohn said:

    nunu said:

    Prety sure Labour MP's have lined up Kinnock to lead them. He wants to finish off what his dad couldn't.

    nunu. Do you have information to back up that statement or is just an opinion?
    Kinnock said he wasn't standing yesterday as he'd only been an MP for a year.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    OllyT said:

    Indigo said:

    OllyT said:

    Would Leave have won saying " If we win we be joining another trading bloc which will still allow Freedom of Movement from the EU including Turkey (as they will be joining imminently as we were told) and still mean we will be contributing to the EU budget"?

    You appear to be still struggling with the concept that different people in Leave have different views, in a rather similar way as do, to take an example at random, the Labour Front Bench.
    As Leavers were so fond of telling us during the referendum we are able to kick the b*stards out in A GE if they lie, what course of action do we have when it becomes evident that Leave won on a pack of lies?

    By that logic there should be a second referendum once the deal is on the table if it differs significantly from what appeared to be on offer when we voted.
    No, I think voters can absolutely kick the Tories out if they don't like how things look in four years time, that was the whole point, but it does rather rely on there being an electable alternative, which is looking ... implausible... at the moment.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Question: Is is possible/allowed to be a member of both the Labour and Tory parties?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @STJamesl: Getting ore and more calls about the uber Corbynista ringing round to canvass support for Lisa Nandy

    16 on Betfair
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Jobabob said:

    The PLP should now take its chance and lead as Progressive Labour from parliament. Let's see how the nutters on the far left like the apples of never being seen at PMQs and a decent interesting centrist representing the new party. You can have your three quidders. Parliament only recognises the leader in the commons.

    What happened to the SDP, or more recently to Ukip defectors? How many held their seats at the next election?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,009
    edited June 2016
    I think the model that will have the support of most people and most MPs across the parties is a variant of the EFTA/EEA model (the Norway model). It will minimise economic damage and is the nearest to the status quo while honouring the result of the referendum.

    However it will involve free movement of people (possibly with some fudge).

    The subsequent anti-immigration anger of many people will have to be acknowledged and managed.

    Some is a rational concern of the effect of pressure on schools, NHS, infrastructure in general.
    Solution is to invest more in the infrastructure - a sensible Corbyn policy.

    Some is an irrational dislike of foreigners - the Other - bordering on racist. It is reminiscent of the attitude of many ordinary Germans to Jews in 1930s Germany. Corbyn will not pander to that in any way to get votes. Good for him. They will join UKIP - the National Socialist party. Both the Tories and Labour will lose many supporters to UKIP but hopefully not many seats because of FPTP. (I'm beginning to see the merits of FPTP).
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    wasdwasd Posts: 276
    PlatoSaid said:

    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
    Actually, I've just found a list of the likely LD target seats for 2020 and there is a hell of a lot of blue in the top 50.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    Jobabob said:

    Question: Is is possible/allowed to be a member of both the Labour and Tory parties?

    Are you considering joining both ?
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736
    OllyT said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening

    I thought she was meant to be the bright one. Jeez
    Sorry - Twitter is blocked on my office network - what has she said?
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    Indigo said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening
    I think we have to accept a small but finite chance that politicians have been talking to each other and actually know a little more about what is happening and what is possible than we do.
    If she delivers that she will win a GE single-handed! It's a sop to the WWC, they are scared of telling them what is really going to happen so they will maintain this charade for as long as they can.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    I note that Leadsome thinks we can enter the single market but without FoM.

    She is clearly delusional.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Question: Is is possible/allowed to be a member of both the Labour and Tory parties?

    I'm sure they're both willing to take your money.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Indigo said:

    currystar said:

    Indigo said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening
    I think we have to accept a small but finite chance that politicians have been talking to each other and actually know a little more about what is happening and what is possible than we do.
    So do you think that the EU will allow us the "perfect world" of not being a member of the EU, paying nothing in, having closed borders yet have access to the free market? The EU will try to make this divorce as difficult as possible so to discourage other countries from having referendums.
    I think that Angela Leadsom used to be a Managing Director for one fund manager, and Cheif Investment Officer for another large one, so whatever she might be, she probably isn't "thick".

    Where did anyone say anything about paying nothing ?
    The Leave campaign! You know we are going to spend it all on the NHS
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,669
    Lennon said:

    OllyT said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening

    I thought she was meant to be the bright one. Jeez
    Sorry - Twitter is blocked on my office network - what has she said?
    @andrealeadsom: Free trade with the EU will be in all our interests. But essential we agree free movement no longer applies to UK. Confident we can do this
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Jobabob said:

    Question: Is is possible/allowed to be a member of both the Labour and Tory parties?

    How would either party know you were a member of the other if you didn't announce it?
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    PlatoSaid said:

    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
    Sutton voted to leave!!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited June 2016
    Raheem Sterling set to start in Roy Hodgson's 'win or bust' tie

    The 21-year-old Manchester City winger, who has struggled so far in the tournament, is expected to replace Adam Lallana as Harry Kane and Daniel Sturridge form England's attacking spearhead.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36634554
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    If someone finally signs off on Brexit, I like the idea of this strategy: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/27/de-toxifying-the-uks-eu-exit-process-a-multi-national-compromise-is-possible/ It makes more sense to have the hard border at Berwick than at Killeen.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    wasd said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
    Actually, I've just found a list of the likely LD target seats for 2020 and there is a hell of a lot of blue in the top 50.
    Linky please.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    OllyT said:

    Indigo said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening
    I think we have to accept a small but finite chance that politicians have been talking to each other and actually know a little more about what is happening and what is possible than we do.
    If she delivers that she will win a GE single-handed! It's a sop to the WWC, they are scared of telling them what is really going to happen so they will maintain this charade for as long as they can.
    One should remember in all this that net immigration is going to fall drastically as the economy slumps, so maybe not hard for Boris/whoever to declare victory on it. Reports of net numbers probably make better headlines than rule changes.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    The interesting bit about a GE is whether those that botd either for the first time or after not having voted for many years in the referendum will come and vote again in a GE. If they do anything could happen
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,019
    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Wasd.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,982
    Jonathan said:

    DanSmith said:

    From Guido
    (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.

    (Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.

    (Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.

    (Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.

    (to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)

    Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
    Has any political leader elected by an overwhelming majority ever been kicked out 9 months later by a group not representative of those tat elected him.?
    Nope, that's how bad JC is.

    Sadly, he is going nowhere. Labour is finished.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,669
    Observation at work as trading in RBS and Barclays shares are suspended

    In hindsight Dave and George didn't go hard enough on the economic consequences of a Leave vote.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    edited June 2016
    Does nyone know where more detailed leave/remain breakdowns are than the 323 council areas. My Dad informed me that Wainbody, Earlsdon and St Michaels in Coventry voted to "remain" but areas like Longford were 4 to 1 for "leave". Not just Coventry, would be interested in other areas too (Hallam vs Sheffield Brightside for instance)
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    So a Leadsom vs Boris leadership contest on the issue of Free Movement ? FTA vs Single Market ? Interesting times.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    wasd said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
    Actually, I've just found a list of the likely LD target seats for 2020 and there is a hell of a lot of blue in the top 50.
    Linky please.
    Remember if itis to be 2020 then they will be fought over 600 seats not 650 so those targets will change
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    DanSmith said:

    From Guido
    (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.

    (Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.

    (Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.

    (Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.

    (to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)

    Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
    Has any political leader elected by an overwhelming majority ever been kicked out 9 months later by a group not representative of those tat elected him.?
    Nope, that's how bad JC is.

    Sadly, he is going nowhere. Labour is finished.

    Don't be so sure.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736

    Lennon said:

    OllyT said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening

    I thought she was meant to be the bright one. Jeez
    Sorry - Twitter is blocked on my office network - what has she said?
    @andrealeadsom: Free trade with the EU will be in all our interests. But essential we agree free movement no longer applies to UK. Confident we can do this
    Thanks... Is that the 'Let's shoot for the moon and see what we actually get approach?'
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,561

    Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.

    Err - I am pretty sure I watched the results closely and it wasn't the "Tory, prosperous and southern" people voting leave. It was almost everyone except Scotland and London and NI. In fact the Tory areas around London were much softer.
    It will be interesting to see more data on how the vote breaks down. I suspect that what you observe is due to some mix of what you describe as the softer Tory areas being slightly further towards AB1 on the census categories than the more BC Tory areas to the east and north, and that in the former the Tories face the LibDems, who lean more to Remain, and in the latter face Labour, whose voters were more split.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Observation at work as trading in RBS and Barclays shares are suspended

    In hindsight Dave and George didn't go hard enough on the economic consequences of a Leave vote.

    They went too much for hysterical language rather than explaining in cold hard facts what would happen.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,561
    £ is sinking slowly but steadily this morning, and we will be at $1.33 soon
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    timmo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
    Sutton voted to leave!!
    With the LDs going for a Rejoin The EU platform - the UKIP vote would be a significant beneficiary - that'd probably result in some new LD MPs coming through the middle. A perverse outcome.

    I think we're getting rather ahead of ourselves however! I'm not expecting a new GE until the Spring.

    After all the turmoil of the next few months - Article 50/multiple leadership elections/negotiations starting with EU - and winter coming... I can't see it being good for the country to throw in a GE as well.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Pulpstar said:

    Does nyone know where more detailed leave/remain breakdowns are than the 323 council areas. My Dad informed me that Wainbody, Earlsdon and St Michaels in Coventry voted to "remain" but areas like Longford were 4 to 1 for "leave".

    Formally I don't think so. Those anecdotes will be based on samples from box openings. Which doesn't make them inaccurate. Far from it.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,009

    So a Leadsom vs Boris leadership contest on the issue of Free Movement ? FTA vs Single Market ? Interesting times.

    Boris will win that easily with MPs. Not so sure about the membership. MPs will ensure she isn't in the final two.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    DanSmith said:

    Observation at work as trading in RBS and Barclays shares are suspended

    In hindsight Dave and George didn't go hard enough on the economic consequences of a Leave vote.

    They went too much for hysterical language rather than explaining in cold hard facts what would happen.
    With the scare stories of war, migrant camps and other stuff the main economic argument of "remain" was severely diluted.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    PlatoSaid said:

    stjohn said:

    nunu said:

    Prety sure Labour MP's have lined up Kinnock to lead them. He wants to finish off what his dad couldn't.

    nunu. Do you have information to back up that statement or is just an opinion?
    Kinnock said he wasn't standing yesterday as he'd only been an MP for a year.
    Ta.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    timmo said:

    The interesting bit about a GE is whether those that botd either for the first time or after not having voted for many years in the referendum will come and vote again in a GE. If they do anything could happen

    And they'll still be registered to vote for a while yet.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,174

    Observation at work as trading in RBS and Barclays shares are suspended

    In hindsight Dave and George didn't go hard enough on the economic consequences of a Leave vote.

    Add that then to the shit way they ran their campaign....
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    Scott_P said:

    @STJamesl: Getting ore and more calls about the uber Corbynista ringing round to canvass support for Lisa Nandy

    16 on Betfair

    She's actually 17 on BetfairSportsbook and no 5% comm'n.
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    wasdwasd Posts: 276
    Pulpstar said:

    wasd said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
    Actually, I've just found a list of the likely LD target seats for 2020 and there is a hell of a lot of blue in the top 50.
    Linky please.
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Interesting site - the Ukip list is interestingly red too.

    I should probably figure this who gambling thing out and have a little flutter. Is there an intro to political betting post kicking around anywhere?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    £ is sinking slowly but steadily this morning, and we will be at $1.33 soon

    Unsurprising the nation is leaderless.

    Cameron = Captain Schettino of the Costa Concordia.


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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Scott_P said:

    @STJamesl: Getting ore and more calls about the uber Corbynista ringing round to canvass support for Lisa Nandy

    16 on Betfair

    She's actually 17 on BetfairSportsbook and no 5% comm'n.
    And tipped by Henry G Manson iirc
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    #prayforbarclays
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    theakestheakes Posts: 844
    In the end will we actually leave the E. U? I really wonder.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    G' live: _ "The celebrity chef Jamie Oliver has said his faith in the British people will be “broken forever” if Boris Johnson becomes prime minister."

    Bojo has it in the bag :lol:
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,064
    TGOHF said:

    Used to be a big David Cameron fan but his lack of leadership since Thursday is a disgrace.

    You are still the PM - man up.

    A has been said before Cameron is a competitive guy who likes to win. The other side of that is he's a bad loser.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,174
    Wanderer said:

    Jobabob said:

    Question: Is is possible/allowed to be a member of both the Labour and Tory parties?

    How would either party know you were a member of the other if you didn't announce it?
    They expel you if they discover it.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    timmo said:

    The interesting bit about a GE is whether those that botd either for the first time or after not having voted for many years in the referendum will come and vote again in a GE. If they do anything could happen

    And they'll still be registered to vote for a while yet.
    Now we in UKIP know where they are, we will get them out ;)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    edited June 2016
    wasd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    wasd said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
    Actually, I've just found a list of the likely LD target seats for 2020 and there is a hell of a lot of blue in the top 50.
    Linky please.
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Interesting site - the Ukip list is interestingly red too.

    I should probably figure this who gambling thing out and have a little flutter. Is there an intro to political betting post kicking around anywhere?
    This might sound mad (But stranger things have happened) I wonder if Harrogate and Knaresborough might be a target given the "remain" vote there....
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    I see Oddschecker now has a dedicated section on their home page for Political Betting, instead of such markets being lumped in with "TV and Specials" as previously.
    No doubt influenced by PBers' hits .... well done Mike!
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Observation at work as trading in RBS and Barclays shares are suspended

    In hindsight Dave and George didn't go hard enough on the economic consequences of a Leave vote.

    Looks like Dave and George have failed. I encourage them to leave the public stage asap.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    Jobabob said:

    I note that Leadsome thinks we can enter the single market but without FoM.

    She is clearly delusional.

    No, she's trying to get delusional people to vote for her.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023

    Observation at work as trading in RBS and Barclays shares are suspended

    In hindsight Dave and George didn't go hard enough on the economic consequences of a Leave vote.

    Looks like Dave and George have failed. I encourage them to leave the public stage asap.
    They're off in an orderly fashion. PM Boris can deal with this lot.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,561
    $1.33 broken, expect $1.32 within the hour
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    IanB2 said:

    £ is sinking slowly but steadily this morning, and we will be at $1.33 soon

    Also heading for €1.20. Some of the first Brexit losers will be European holiday makers who haven't bought their spending money yet.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,669
    @Jack_Blanchard_: Source: Tom Watson has met with Jeremy Corbyn and made it clear to him that he no longer commands the confidence of Labour MPs.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,737
    Pulpstar said:

    wasd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    wasd said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    wasd said:


    People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc

    Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
    Welcome aboard, Mr Wasd. Eastbourne would very likely to fall - few hundred votes maj and 57% for Leave.
    Actually, I've just found a list of the likely LD target seats for 2020 and there is a hell of a lot of blue in the top 50.
    Linky please.
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Interesting site - the Ukip list is interestingly red too.

    I should probably figure this who gambling thing out and have a little flutter. Is there an intro to political betting post kicking around anywhere?
    This might sound mad (But stranger things have happened) I wonder if Harrogate and Knaresborough might be a target given the "remain" vote there....
    "The MP for the Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency is Andrew Jones, a Conservative. He was elected in 2010, ousting the Liberal Democrats who had won the seat at the previous three general elections"
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2016

    Lennon said:

    OllyT said:

    currystar said:

    pinkrose said:
    There is absolutely no chance of this happening

    I thought she was meant to be the bright one. Jeez
    Sorry - Twitter is blocked on my office network - what has she said?
    @andrealeadsom: Free trade with the EU will be in all our interests. But essential we agree free movement no longer applies to UK. Confident we can do this
    Is it possible to restrict free movement if we fudge the terms and squint a bit? We are already outside Schengen after all. Something Mrs Merkel can sell as free movement and PM Leadsom can sell as UK control -- people can only come in when there's a R in the month, or a Y in the day, for instance.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    The political leadership of the campaign was poor. The aftermath is worse, if not negligent.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PlatoSaid said:

    After all the turmoil of the next few months - Article 50/multiple leadership elections/negotiations starting with EU - and winter coming... I can't see it being good for the country to throw in a GE as well.

    HA HA

    HA HA HA HA HA

    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

    "Brexit was all about democracy, take back control!"

    We were warned there would be chaos. There is now chaos. There will be different visions of how to resolve the chaos. Should we ask voters?

    "I can't see it being good for the country "

    Once again, a fellow Brexiteer provides the apposite phrase.

    Fuck off. Please. Just fuck off.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    @wasd Political betting is the same as any other - we make subjective assessments of "value" and then look to see if the price is bigger than what it should be.

    For instance I think the chance of David Miliband becoming next Labour leader is certainly under 5%.

    Hence I am happy to "lay" the bet at 8.2 on Betfair.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Wanderer said:

    Jobabob said:

    Question: Is is possible/allowed to be a member of both the Labour and Tory parties?

    How would either party know you were a member of the other if you didn't announce it?
    They expel you if they discover it.
    Labour blocked several 3 quidders from signing up when they discovered they had campaigned for the Green party, a Trade Union leader being one IMRC – I thought the Tories were more sanguine about it, much like the C of E Bishops where belief in God is optional?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,737

    TGOHF said:

    Used to be a big David Cameron fan but his lack of leadership since Thursday is a disgrace.

    You are still the PM - man up.

    A has been said before Cameron is a competitive guy who likes to win. The other side of that is he's a bad loser.
    And he's lost badly.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    DanSmith said:

    From Guido
    (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.

    (Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.

    (Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.

    (Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.

    (to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)

    Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
    Just wait until he doesn't quit after a no-confidence vote by the majority of his parliamentary party .
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Observation at work as trading in RBS and Barclays shares are suspended

    In hindsight Dave and George didn't go hard enough on the economic consequences of a Leave vote.

    Looks like Dave and George have failed. I encourage them to leave the public stage asap.
    They're off in an orderly fashion. PM Boris can deal with this lot.
    They're distrusted by the British people. They have no business to linger and inflicted further damage. In the name of God, be gone Dave and George.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Now here's an idea

    @thomasknox: So there must be new GE? Tories offering EEA, Labour (new leader) - stay in EU but try to renegotiate Free Movement. And we choose.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    What a mess.

    I had some interesting conversations with friends in the City over the weekend. The mood could scarecly be blacker. One friend who has recently retired from a senior position with a Japanese bank, and who is definitely not someone prone to exaggeration, said he thought it was the end of London as the leading financial centre in the timezone.

    Another anecdote: amongst my friends, everyone seems to think Boris will be next PM. But few want him to be.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,931
    TGOHF said:

    Used to be a big David Cameron fan but his lack of leadership since Thursday is a disgrace.

    You are still the PM - man up.

    The 1922 needs to tell Cameron to go now. A 3 month leadership contest is a non starter in the circumstances. We need a proper leader to navigate this crisis not a weeping, broken man.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Where would we rank Scott's meltdown in the annals of PB dumpster fires ?

    Top 20 ?

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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Scott_P said:

    Now here's an idea

    @thomasknox: So there must be new GE? Tories offering EEA, Labour (new leader) - stay in EU but try to renegotiate Free Movement. And we choose.

    Labour would be destroyed on that platform wouldn't they?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,669
    Scott_P said:

    Now here's an idea

    @thomasknox: So there must be new GE? Tories offering EEA, Labour (new leader) - stay in EU but try to renegotiate Free Movement. And we choose.

    And that's from a 100% Leaver
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    We need a proper leader to navigate this crisis

    But we're about to get a clown
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    Wanderer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @STJamesl: Getting ore and more calls about the uber Corbynista ringing round to canvass support for Lisa Nandy

    16 on Betfair

    She's actually 17 on BetfairSportsbook and no 5% comm'n.
    And tipped by Henry G Manson iirc
    Indeed she was, just a few weeks ago.

    Speaking of HenryG, here's hoping we get a few Wimbledon tips from the master over the next two weeks.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,669
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Used to be a big David Cameron fan but his lack of leadership since Thursday is a disgrace.

    You are still the PM - man up.

    The 1922 needs to tell Cameron to go now. A 3 month leadership contest is a non starter in the circumstances. We need a proper leader to navigate this crisis not a weeping, broken man.
    You do realise Tory leadership elections take 3 months from start to finish?

    Exactly who would stand in the interregnum between Dave quitting and a new leader being elected?
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    Scott_P said:

    Now here's an idea

    @thomasknox: So there must be new GE? Tories offering EEA, Labour (new leader) - stay in EU but try to renegotiate Free Movement. And we choose.

    with UKIP offering a points based immigration system.

    Labour northern wipeout.
This discussion has been closed.