What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
You are kidding? A serial flouncer and now turncoat? Who trust her with anything?
She in particular would have difficulty with the failure to deliver the promised £350 million a week to the NHS.
They don't get it do they? They can't dictate terms anymore.
Good point. Unfortunately we are currently not laying down terms either. We have decided to LEAVE but are unwilling to engage in any activity that actually involves leaving.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
Wollaston has more chance of going for the Labour Leadership.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
You are kidding? A serial flouncer and now turncoat? Who trust her with anything?
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
What's the easiest, cheapest way to mitigate a Sterling crash next week?
I have no idea. Things have been much less bad than predicted, FTSE is marginally up over the week, the £ bounced back but some of that would have been BoE support.
If I had substantial savings, I'd stick them in Bitcoins for a week and see where we are then.
The trouble with saying the FTSE is up over the week is that traders always factor in uncertainty. Do you not think that it would have jumped massively on a Remain result?
They don't get it do they? They can't dictate terms anymore.
Good point. Unfortunately we are currently not laying down terms either. We have decided to LEAVE but are unwilling to engage in any activity that actually involves leaving.
Yes, I would rather welcome some sign on Monday that this country does still have a functioning government.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
They don't get it do they? They can't dictate terms anymore.
Good point. Unfortunately we are currently not laying down terms either. We have decided to LEAVE but are unwilling to engage in any activity that actually involves leaving.
The economy will dictate it, too much uncertainty will be harmful so any delays will need to be avoided.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
Why would Westminster do that? The Scottish government got a mandate last month to seek a second independence referendum if there were a material change in Scotland's circumstances. That has happened. Either we're democrats or we're not.
The SNP actually lost its majority last month - even Jim Sillars has said that there is no mandate for another Independence Referendum. As it was , turnout was only circa 55% for the Scottish Parliament compared with 85% in September 2014.
@JustineGreening: Today's a good day to say I'm in a happy same sex relationship, I campaigned for Stronger In but sometimes you're better off out! #Pride2016
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
For a leading campaigner-remainer, I agree absolutely. But May kept her head down and did her best to get as close to the fence as possible (ECHR etc). It's question of whether she can pull off the "unity candidate, bringing all sides together in the national interest" line against Boris's obvious divisiveness. It must be possible to build a constituency from the remainers plus the responsibles plus Tories who can't stand Boris...
Forget it, no one who supported Remain even as an abstract is going to be the next Tory leader, the Tory membership would never vote for one.
You have to think of someone who will be in the top 2 of MP's list and who can win the membership. May maybe on the top 2 but she will never win the membership, no Remainer can.
The problem was the outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates such as Gove. My bet is that May will (just) beat Hammond in the party vote.
The Tories are not the Labour party.
"outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates"
That may work in Labour but not with the Tory party which supported (outside of Cameron and his circle) the Leave campaign.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
Wollaston has more chance of going for the Labour Leadership.
I'm really hoping this woman crosses the floor. We'll take Gisela Stuart and Kate Hoey instead.
24 hours on and it is now abundantly clear that the Leave campaign don't want to leave the single market. The more bizarre development is that @SouthamObserver will go down in history as the greatest tipster of all time.
2. If the EU wants it enough, I think you'll find many of the problems you offer might disappear
If the EU can't offer preferential treatment to one of the largest economies in the world to keep it in, I doubt they're going to be falling over themselves to pave the way for Scottish membership. How many countries joining the EU have been given preferential treatment to get them in, particularly when they're as desperate to get in as Scotland apparently is?
3. The rUK may not find itself in quite as strong a position re. Scotland than it was before
It still controls 90% of Scottish trade, it still has the pound; it still controls all the institutions of government and UK global representation. The only thing that's changed as a result of this vote is a small proportion of Scots are very upset and are lashing out.
4. Arranging for the two choices to be worked up in parallel is, IMHO, exactly what Sturgeon will try and do. "Which gamble do you prefer?" is much sounder ground than "Do you fancy taking a big risk?", particularly if you can sell your gamble as the safer one.
So Sturgeon is going to be trying to persuade EU leaders to lay down a red carpet for Scotland's accession, while said EU leaders are busy negotiating Article 50 with Britain. Therefore, she'll have even less time to legislate for, announce, campaign and win a referendum, set up an entire independent state, and ensure it meets all the criteria for EU membership. That's assuming no negotiations are required for entry, of course. For a party that's been thinking about independence so long, one might have hoped its supporters would have considered exactly what it involves.
I'm being given the arched eyebrow death stare that eviscerates continents in a trice so in thanking you for your warm sentiments I'll dictate my final comment for the day.
SINDY2 and YES is no longer about process, financial implications or the mutterings of experts - BREXIT refers. It's become about the country Scotland want to be in the coming decades wart and all. There is an clear sense of unease and significant mood change afoot. It's tangible, undeniable and in my view unstoppable.
The UK is now done. I cherish its history, I love the British people but in sadness and hope for the future the parting of the ways is coming. I never thought I'd see the day when Scotland was independent let alone support it and perhaps I'll not live long enough to see it but there is a time and place in the events of man when fate sits on the shoulders of a nation. That time for Scotland beckons.
@JustineGreening: Today's a good day to say I'm in a happy same sex relationship, I campaigned for Stronger In but sometimes you're better off out! #Pride2016
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
What's the easiest, cheapest way to mitigate a Sterling crash next week?
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Don’t think the EU is in any position to demand anything; if it is in Britain’s best interest to sign the A50 quickly, then it will do so. As for Sturgeon, she may speak to whom she wishes, Scotland has no authority to call a referendum, - she doesn’t even command a majority in the Scottish house.
I agree on Article 50. But, with sufficient people power, constitutions are irrelevant. If the Scots organize and win their own referendum without Westminster's blessing, it will have the same real effect as a sanctioned referendum, and HMG would be foolish to treat it any other way.
Conversely, if London sought an unsanctioned referendum to become a City State, HMG could laugh it off with a high degree of confidence.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
I say give the Scots another go. We shouldn't deny them the same right to have their say as we have just had. I'm not sure Yes would win this time either, 38% of Scots voted to Leave and more voted No than remain. The silent majority in favour of the union may just still be keeping quiet and letting the angry Remain types vent. The crossover between the Yes vote and Remain vote will have been quite large, and if the UK does go down the EEA route I don't see how Yes would win.
Still I don't think they should be denied a say over their future. That wouldn't be right. I think Scotland could be a very successful country if they were independent, it would take a few years of hard labour (just as Brexit will) but I believe Scottish people are smart enough and would work hard enough to become a strong and successful nation. I'd be sad to see them go because of the shared history, but it is up to them and Westminster shouldn't stand in their way by denying them a vote.
I'm being given the arched eyebrow death stare that eviscerates continents in a trice so in thanking you for your warm sentiments I'll dictate my final comment for the day.
SINDY2 and YES is no longer about process, financial implications or the mutterings of experts - BREXIT refers. It's become about the country Scotland want to be in the coming decades wart and all. There is an clear sense of unease and significant mood change afoot. It's tangible, undeniable and in my view unstoppable.
The UK is now done. I cherish its history, I love the British people but in sadness and hope for the future the parting of the ways is coming. I never thought I'd see the day when Scotland was independent let alone support it and perhaps I'll not live long enough to see it but there is a time and place in the events of man when fate sits on the shoulders of a nation. That time for Scotland beckons.
Who'd have thought JackW?
A poignant post that defines the feeling now among proud Europeans of all stripes. I was virulently anti-independence. I now think Scotland should go, be independent in Europe, and we will all wish her well.
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
For a leading campaigner-remainer, I agree absolutely. But May kept her head down and did her best to get as close to the fence as possible (ECHR etc). It's question of whether she can pull off the "unity candidate, bringing all sides together in the national interest" line against Boris's obvious divisiveness. It must be possible to build a constituency from the remainers plus the responsibles plus Tories who can't stand Boris...
Forget it, no one who supported Remain even as an abstract is going to be the next Tory leader, the Tory membership would never vote for one.
You have to think of someone who will be in the top 2 of MP's list and who can win the membership. May maybe on the top 2 but she will never win the membership, no Remainer can.
The problem was the outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates such as Gove. My bet is that May will (just) beat Hammond in the party vote.
The Tories are not the Labour party.
"outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates"
That may work in Labour but not with the Tory party which supported (outside of Cameron and his circle) the Leave campaign.
Yes, they're not the Labour party. They wouldn't be stupid enough to nominate an unsuitable candidate just so that the membership could decide.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Don’t think the EU is in any position to demand anything; if it is in Britain’s best interest to sign the A50 quickly, then it will do so. As for Sturgeon, she may speak to whom she wishes, Scotland has no authority to call a referendum, - she doesn’t even command a majority in the Scottish house.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
And former Labour voters like me. Female, 40s and lower middle class.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
I say give the Scots another go. We shouldn't deny them the same right to have their say as we have just had. I'm not sure Yes would win this time either, 38% of Scots voted to Leave and more voted No than remain. The silent majority in favour of the union may just still be keeping quiet and letting the angry Remain types vent. The crossover between the Yes vote and Remain vote will have been quite large, and if the UK does go down the EEA route I don't see how Yes would win.
Still I don't think they should be denied a say over their future. That wouldn't be right. I think Scotland could be a very successful country if they were independent, it would take a few years of hard labour (just as Brexit will) but I believe Scottish people are smart enough and would work hard enough to become a strong and successful nation. I'd be sad to see them go because of the shared history, but it is up to them and Westminster shouldn't stand in their way by denying them a vote.
I agree with your analysis but disagree with your second sentence. 'They' are 'We' - Scots voted on Thursday just the same as the rest of the UK - it is 'our' collective decision. That's how democracy works, even though there are a few over the last 48 hours who have forgotten that.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Don’t think the EU is in any position to demand anything; if it is in Britain’s best interest to sign the A50 quickly, then it will do so. As for Sturgeon, she may speak to whom she wishes, Scotland has no authority to call a referendum, - she doesn’t even command a majority in the Scottish house.
Faisal Islam should take a long holiday.
He's pitifully shouty and biased. I never liked him on C4 - he's no better on Sky.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I'm being given the arched eyebrow death stare that eviscerates continents in a trice so in thanking you for your warm sentiments I'll dictate my final comment for the day.
SINDY2 and YES is no longer about process, financial implications or the mutterings of experts - BREXIT refers. It's become about the country Scotland want to be in the coming decades wart and all. There is an clear sense of unease and significant mood change afoot. It's tangible, undeniable and in my view unstoppable.
The UK is now done. I cherish its history, I love the British people but in sadness and hope for the future the parting of the ways is coming. I never thought I'd see the day when Scotland was independent let alone support it and perhaps I'll not live long enough to see it but there is a time and place in the events of man when fate sits on the shoulders of a nation. That time for Scotland beckons.
Who'd have thought JackW?
A poignant post that defines the feeling now among proud Europeans of all stripes. I was virulently anti-independence. I now think Scotland should go, be independent in Europe, and we will all wish her well.
Completely agree. And we should do all we can to help. It will be in our interests too.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
So long as you add 'and smaller Welshman', it'll be perfectly fine.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
And former Labour voters like me. Female, 40s and lower middle class.
Strange thing is when the next election comes along some people will still be studying polls, you might as well read tea leaves as believe these people.
Who won the referendum prediction btw? I went 52% Leave on a 52% turnout, interesting to see how close the winner was.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
Use whichever terms you like, I can't imagine anybody takes you seriously anymore.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
This is the most extraordinary, fluid and dynamic situation. Where we end up is anyone's guess, but it's clear the UK won't exist in five years time. The effect that will have on the current establishment will be huge. London will not be independent, of course, but it will probably have many more powers. This could be very exciting and may not turn out to be much to many prominent Leavers' liking.
Strange thing is when the next election comes along some people will still be studying polls, you might as well read tea leaves as believe these people.
Who won the referendum prediction btw? I went 52% Leave on a 52% turnout, interesting to see how close the winner was.
Polls are still useful, but if there's an "interesting" polls floating about, analysis of the crosstabs is essential.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
I think it has changed a lot over the past 4 decades. As a kid, a lot of the civil service, particularly the middle ranks, would be conservative. Now I get the feeling that pretty much everyone in the public sector is 'anyone but the Tories'
Thus I think the bulk of support comes from retirees, private sector middle class, the wealthy (other than champagne socialists and luvvies) and the military.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
This is the third time in my life that an event that will obviously change the world has happened. The last was in 2001, the time before that (as you note) in 1989.
What was the last one before that? The Cuban Missile Crisis?
@MarkKleinmanSky: Exclusive: Tata Steel bidders including billionaire tycoon Wilbur Ross get cold feet over UK's decision to leave EU. https://t.co/1FU1gsKwHJ
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
This is the most extraordinary, fluid and dynamic situation. Where we end up is anyone's guess, but it's clear the UK won't exist in five years time. The effect that will have on the current establishment will be huge. London will not be independent, of course, but it will probably have many more powers. This could be very exciting and may not turn out to be much to many prominent Leavers' liking.
I think that a 'Great Englander' would probably be better. In 5 years time the EU will comprise of Germany and the baggage they can't get rid of. In effect Germany will be paying all the bills of Eastern and Southern Europe - and I hope they enjoy it.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
This is the third time in my life that an event that will obviously change the world has happened. The last was in 2001, the time before that (as you note) in 1989.
What was the last one before that? The Cuban Missile Crisis?
24 hours on and it is now abundantly clear that the Leave campaign don't want to leave the single market. The more bizarre development is that @SouthamObserver will go down in history as the greatest tipster of all time.
Ha, ha. But there's no genius in predicting night will follow day.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
This is the most extraordinary, fluid and dynamic situation. Where we end up is anyone's guess, but it's clear the UK won't exist in five years time. The effect that will have on the current establishment will be huge. London will not be independent, of course, but it will probably have many more powers. This could be very exciting and may not turn out to be much to many prominent Leavers' liking.
London is still a great, cosmopolitan outward-looking city. Saving it from being contaminated by the rest of England is going to be an important project.
Give it another day or two and it will have shrunk back to its usual horizon for metropolitan types - just London. That's possibly why Labour didn't see this coming.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
I strongly encourage you to use that expression freely. It's a winner.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
The problem is that those who believe in "The Project" don't believe in reality.
If they did, they would realise that "The Project" is a very very long term project whereas they have been rushing at it. The first frog has left the pot. Unless they take it off the stove, more will follow.
The other advantage of waiting is that we get to see how the EU public react.
The EU elite is right now suffering a deep malaise as they are in shocked anger. Let things settle / fester for a while. We in the rUK were gearing up to feel quite similar thoughts about Scotland during Sindy1. If we get Sindy2 and a vote to leave we should also sit down, have a cup of tea and remain calm. The end of the UK including Scotland and the birth of a UK excluding Scotland wouldn't affect the price of cheese - so to speak. England would save its EU contributions and its Barnett ones too. I'm sure we'd be allowed to buy whiskey and holiday in Edinburgh. Identity counts - as we discovered so very powerfully this week. If Scotland has got a different demos from the rUK then it is best to let them go and be friends. FWIW I think they'd vote to stay and the SNP will lose much of its current mojo. Trying to become a punishment minded prison is not a viable plan - as the EU is about to discover.
Would you point out the donate button please - I have a contribution to make.
It was a VERY profitable night.
I'd love to know who was still laying Leave after midnight.
And a big thanks to AndyJS and his spreadsheet - worth more than all the 'experts' put together.
Andy's spreadsheet was indispensable. It was amazing how the odds on Leave remained so high so long. It was like May 2015 again. I piled everything on Leave after Sunderland and made the biggest gains I've ever made on political betting. It much more than offsets the poorer Euro exchange rate I'll get for my holidays!
My share portfolio has done OK as well as I have significant holdings in Astrazeneca and GSK which are $ denominated and actually went up yesterday. So personally I've done well out of this and I'm well insulated from the damage that is coming.
But I really grieve for the losers - particularly the young, whose futures have been blighted by the elderly and the ignorant.
Yes, I absolutely should of said that. AndyJS added more illumination to the event than BBC and Sky put together.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
Yes an executive summary would be nice.
Problem is, as soon as it is clear Free movement will be part of the deal, the howls of betrayal will begin.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
I think it has changed a lot over the past 4 decades. As a kid, a lot of the civil service, particularly the middle ranks, would be conservative. Now I get the feeling that pretty much everyone in the public sector is 'anyone but the Tories'
Thus I think the bulk of support comes from retirees, private sector middle class, the wealthy (other than champagne socialists and luvvies) and the military.
I worked in the NHS and there were a lot of "shy" conservatives like me. You just kept quiet about it.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
Strange thing is when the next election comes along some people will still be studying polls, you might as well read tea leaves as believe these people.
Who won the referendum prediction btw? I went 52% Leave on a 52% turnout, interesting to see how close the winner was.
Polls are still useful but you just have to be very careful in how to read them. Trump might get previous non voters out with his populist platform in the US. That would make a mockery of the polls there too - we simply don't know though. He'd need to close the gap in the polls to win though. But slightly behind in the polls and he could well win. (Like Brexit did)
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
Yes an executive summary would be nice.
Problem is, as soon as it is clear Free movement will be part of the deal, the howls of betrayal will begin.
Let them, I wish it were possible to buy shares in Betrayal as @SouthamObserver has suggested!
We have the Leave vote now and we need to move forwards to protect our economic interests and fix immigration over the long term within the EEA/EFTA with the Norwegians and Swiss involved as well. We won't solve the issue of immigration over night, anyone who believes that needs their head checked.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Much like most party members - interested in politics more than the average punter - otherwise pretty ordinary middle of the road people.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
BTW, are Brexiteers who advocating holding them to ransom suggesting that will somehow get us a better deal?
I think you will discover that in hostage situations they usually demand a ransom.
Any UK splinter (lets say the SNP) barred for eternity from entering the EU will be a nice part of any ransom.
Your posts are magnificent.
Pure comedy gold.
You know we would.
Everyone hates the SNP outside of scotland. Forging a deal with the EU to exclude an independent scotland from the EU forever as part of any Brexit will be ironic but will do the job of kicking the SNP's behinds.
I would have no problem trading freedom of movement in exchange of watching the EU barring a potential independent scotland from entering. And guessing from the numbers who voted Tory from fear and hate of the SNP, that would be fine with most voters.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
Apart from you forgetting Wales exists (easy to forget the little people isn't it?), yes. Being a little nation is of no concern to me whatsoever. I have no desire to dictate what should happen in and to other nations and 'expand our influence' for its own sake. Little Englanders, Little Switzerlanders, Little Norwayers - fine by me.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
This is the third time in my life that an event that will obviously change the world has happened. The last was in 2001, the time before that (as you note) in 1989.
What was the last one before that? The Cuban Missile Crisis?
These are just political events, bumps in the road compared to the real momentous changes.
The truly world-changing events all lie in science and technology. The printing press, information theory, the internet, CRISPR-Cas9 (the technology which is changing genetic engineering more fundamentally and faster than anything that ever happened in IT)
The key dates are 2011 (finding the tracrRNA for the Cas9 system) and 2012 (characterizing how this can be used to edit DNA across species very accurately - and easily)
This is partly the reason I am so for Brexit. Most of the founding work for this amazing technology, which will make the 21st century the Biological Revolution century, was done in Europe. EU Directive 2001:18 effectively bans the exploitation of this. Which means pretty much all of the EU's post-grads working on this will end up in the US or China at some point.
FWIW, Imperial and Cambridge (and Edinburgh) are currently at the forefront of the science.
BTW, are Brexiteers who advocating holding them to ransom suggesting that will somehow get us a better deal?
The EU has held other countries to ransom plenty of times, we should have no hesitation about doing the same to them.
Ah, yes, like we successfully held them to ransom over Juncker's appointment.
What some Brexit celebrants don't get is that the EU has just had it with Britain. We've got to the stage of awkward marriages where one partner just wants the other to shut up and push off. "You want to go? Have a nice life, shut the door behind you. You demand concessions before you leave? Why?"
Forgive me for this rant but... Is it just me or... are we in the middle of a coordinated campaign to reverse the result of the referendum? After long consideration I voted Leave having looked at both sides. I wasn't a committed Leaver. I wasn't fond of the EU for the reasons everyone seems to have forgotten, but I wanted to weigh up both sides. I expected a short term shock if we left. But this? I didn't expect an outright campaign to deny democracy. There aren't two sides to the debate any more. There is just one. Everywhere I look, on every media platform, from every politician, expert and pundit I am ALLOWED to see or hear, Im inundated with a relentless barrage of 'we have denied Paradise to our children and condemned them to an inevitable life of penury and fascism'. But its not too late! Maybe a General election can save us! Or individual cities can declare UDI! We can still turn back to the promised land! Suddenly the EU isn't a sclerotic, undemocratic, corrupt megalith, its Heaven on Earth and We Turned our Backs On It. Life in Europe is as close to perfection as we poor mortals can attain (and we should really ignore its teensy little flaws). As a result of our bigoted madness, the world is ending. Nothing will ever be good again. The sun will never shine. We will all starve in Little England (little Scotland is fine of course because its allowed to be proud of its identity). And thats barely hyperbole-- look on social media. The shaming and bullying of people who voted Leave, the way they're being paraded on the media as fools who didn't know what they were doing, or if they insist they did, they can only be racists, morons and/or senile. Suddenly 'the 48%' are victims of these selfish old bigots and of course far more important than the majority. Though if Leave had hit no more than 48% they'd have been told to shut up and accept democracy. I understand that many people felt safer in the Eu, that leaving is a risk. But then so is staying to Leave voters. I wonder if this is what happened to the French and the Irish when they dared to vote wrongly before being led to safety. If their political and media establishments browbeat them into submission. We said the Uk would never allow that; we respect democracy too much. Really? The whipping up of mass hysteria, the deliberate, gleeful talking down of the UKs prospects, the attempt to make existence after exit seem all but impossible, like a return to the Dark Ages, the hints that since the vote was Wrong we can reset it ... Is this is why no province dares leave the empire? Thank you for indulging me. Better out than in. In every sense.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Spend a bit of time in the comments pages of ConHome and you'll find that most of them are beyond description. Whether these are representative is another matter.
It's not all doom and gloom. I rang my brother in Brexit Central (aka Boston) and he seemed quite cheerful considering the world is collapsing round him.
No doubt, much of the media will portray England as a depressed nation now, but they won't go looking in the Wildwood where the stoats and weasels are rejoicing. Let's hear it for the old and thick.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
I think it has changed a lot over the past 4 decades. As a kid, a lot of the civil service, particularly the middle ranks, would be conservative. Now I get the feeling that pretty much everyone in the public sector is 'anyone but the Tories'
Thus I think the bulk of support comes from retirees, private sector middle class, the wealthy (other than champagne socialists and luvvies) and the military.
I worked in the NHS and there were a lot of "shy" conservatives like me. You just kept quiet about it.
It's a similar situation in universities. I absolutely won't discuss politics at work, except with one colleague who I happen to know is also a member. Most of our colleagues disparage us without realising it and, as long as I remain 'shy', I can't really complain about that.
Q. Will Dmitri Payet be Euro 2016's Player of the Tournament?
A. Probably, should favourites France defeat England on Monday and then progress to the semi finals.
He has already demonstrated wonderful skills in the Group games and more of the same should guarantee the award for this West Ham star, who is probably the most naturally gifted taker of free kicks in the world today. For those unfamiliar, take a look:
Comments
@JustineGreening: Today's a good day to say I'm in a happy same sex relationship, I campaigned for Stronger In but sometimes you're better off out! #Pride2016
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629646
"outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates"
That may work in Labour but not with the Tory party which supported (outside of Cameron and his circle) the Leave campaign.
SINDY2 and YES is no longer about process, financial implications or the mutterings of experts - BREXIT refers. It's become about the country Scotland want to be in the coming decades wart and all. There is an clear sense of unease and significant mood change afoot. It's tangible, undeniable and in my view unstoppable.
The UK is now done. I cherish its history, I love the British people but in sadness and hope for the future the parting of the ways is coming. I never thought I'd see the day when Scotland was independent let alone support it and perhaps I'll not live long enough to see it but there is a time and place in the events of man when fate sits on the shoulders of a nation. That time for Scotland beckons.
Who'd have thought JackW?
Conversely, if London sought an unsanctioned referendum to become a City State, HMG could laugh it off with a high degree of confidence.
@ftwestminster: Britain must not hold EU to ransom https://t.co/W4LQWyR38x
BTW, are Brexiteers who advocating holding them to ransom suggesting that will somehow get us a better deal?
Still I don't think they should be denied a say over their future. That wouldn't be right. I think Scotland could be a very successful country if they were independent, it would take a few years of hard labour (just as Brexit will) but I believe Scottish people are smart enough and would work hard enough to become a strong and successful nation. I'd be sad to see them go because of the shared history, but it is up to them and Westminster shouldn't stand in their way by denying them a vote.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
Any UK splinter (lets say the SNP) barred for eternity from entering the EU will be a nice part of any ransom.
Pure comedy gold.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
semi colon right bracket
colon left bracket
colon lower case o
Who won the referendum prediction btw? I went 52% Leave on a 52% turnout, interesting to see how close the winner was.
From Hubris to Nemesis
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/745920620584669185
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746075089658126341
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746118392281706496
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746121561409785856
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746142675091480577
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746161085284290560
Thus I think the bulk of support comes from retirees, private sector middle class, the wealthy (other than champagne socialists and luvvies) and the military.
What was the last one before that? The Cuban Missile Crisis?
@MarkKleinmanSky: Exclusive: Tata Steel bidders including billionaire tycoon Wilbur Ross get cold feet over UK's decision to leave EU. https://t.co/1FU1gsKwHJ
"You can feel the country shrinking by the hour."
Give it another day or two and it will have shrunk back to its usual horizon for metropolitan types - just London. That's possibly why Labour didn't see this coming.
If they did, they would realise that "The Project" is a very very long term project whereas they have been rushing at it. The first frog has left the pot. Unless they take it off the stove, more will follow.
The other advantage of waiting is that we get to see how the EU public react.
If there was a vote on unification how would it fall north and south of the border and what would be the outcome?
We have the Leave vote now and we need to move forwards to protect our economic interests and fix immigration over the long term within the EEA/EFTA with the Norwegians and Swiss involved as well. We won't solve the issue of immigration over night, anyone who believes that needs their head checked.
What does it mean?
Everyone hates the SNP outside of scotland.
Forging a deal with the EU to exclude an independent scotland from the EU forever as part of any Brexit will be ironic but will do the job of kicking the SNP's behinds.
I would have no problem trading freedom of movement in exchange of watching the EU barring a potential independent scotland from entering.
And guessing from the numbers who voted Tory from fear and hate of the SNP, that would be fine with most voters.
But we are where we are
The truly world-changing events all lie in science and technology. The printing press, information theory, the internet, CRISPR-Cas9 (the technology which is changing genetic engineering more fundamentally and faster than anything that ever happened in IT)
For those interested in how astonishingly fast CRISPR-Cas9 was developed, here is a timeline:
https://www.broadinstitute.org/what-broad/areas-focus/project-spotlight/crispr-timeline
The key dates are 2011 (finding the tracrRNA for the Cas9 system) and 2012 (characterizing how this can be used to edit DNA across species very accurately - and easily)
This is partly the reason I am so for Brexit. Most of the founding work for this amazing technology, which will make the 21st century the Biological Revolution century, was done in Europe. EU Directive 2001:18 effectively bans the exploitation of this. Which means pretty much all of the EU's post-grads working on this will end up in the US or China at some point.
FWIW, Imperial and Cambridge (and Edinburgh) are currently at the forefront of the science.
What some Brexit celebrants don't get is that the EU has just had it with Britain. We've got to the stage of awkward marriages where one partner just wants the other to shut up and push off. "You want to go? Have a nice life, shut the door behind you. You demand concessions before you leave? Why?"
Everywhere I look, on every media platform, from every politician, expert and pundit I am ALLOWED to see or hear, Im inundated with a relentless barrage of 'we have denied Paradise to our children and condemned them to an inevitable life of penury and fascism'. But its not too late! Maybe a General election can save us! Or individual cities can declare UDI! We can still turn back to the promised land!
Suddenly the EU isn't a sclerotic, undemocratic, corrupt megalith, its Heaven on Earth and We Turned our Backs On It. Life in Europe is as close to perfection as we poor mortals can attain (and we should really ignore its teensy little flaws). As a result of our bigoted madness, the world is ending. Nothing will ever be good again. The sun will never shine. We will all starve in Little England (little Scotland is fine of course because its allowed to be proud of its identity). And thats barely hyperbole-- look on social media.
The shaming and bullying of people who voted Leave, the way they're being paraded on the media as fools who didn't know what they were doing, or if they insist they did, they can only be racists, morons and/or senile. Suddenly 'the 48%' are victims of these selfish old bigots and of course far more important than the majority. Though if Leave had hit no more than 48% they'd have been told to shut up and accept democracy.
I understand that many people felt safer in the Eu, that leaving is a risk. But then so is staying to Leave voters. I wonder if this is what happened to the French and the Irish when they dared to vote wrongly before being led to safety. If their political and media establishments browbeat them into submission. We said the Uk would never allow that; we respect democracy too much. Really? The whipping up of mass hysteria, the deliberate, gleeful talking down of the UKs prospects, the attempt to make existence after exit seem all but impossible, like a return to the Dark Ages, the hints that since the vote was Wrong we can reset it ... Is this is why no province dares leave the empire?
Thank you for indulging me. Better out than in. In every sense.
I suppose it will be pronounced EU-whip.
No doubt, much of the media will portray England as a depressed nation now, but they won't go looking in the Wildwood where the stoats and weasels are rejoicing. Let's hear it for the old and thick.
***** BETTING POST *****
Q. Will Dmitri Payet be Euro 2016's Player of the Tournament?
A. Probably, should favourites France defeat England on Monday and then progress to the semi finals.
He has already demonstrated wonderful skills in the Group games and more of the same should guarantee the award for this West Ham star, who is probably the most naturally gifted taker of free kicks in the world today. For those unfamiliar, take a look:
http://tinyurl.com/ztsu2hn
He's currently best-priced at 5.8 (5.5 net) with Betfair.
DYOR