The EU can demand what it likes , but it is clearly laid down that it is for the departing state to activate Article 50. At the end of the day the UK Government is not even constitutionally bound to honour the Referendum result even though politically it would be very difficult to do otherwise.
It is equally clear that no state can hold the entire EU hostage by threatening to secede without actually triggering it.
If we faff about too long they might just declare us in breach of existing treaties and kick anyway
But until we do activate Article 50 how will we be in breach of the treaties?
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
For a leading campaigner-remainer, I agree absolutely. But May kept her head down and did her best to get as close to the fence as possible (ECHR etc). It's question of whether she can pull off the "unity candidate, bringing all sides together in the national interest" line against Boris's obvious divisiveness. It must be possible to build a constituency from the remainers plus the responsibles plus Tories who can't stand Boris...
Forget it, no one who supported Remain even as an abstract is going to be the next Tory leader, the Tory membership would never vote for one.
You have to think of someone who will be in the top 2 of MP's list and who can win the membership. May maybe on the top 2 but she will never win the membership, no Remainer can.
The problem was the outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates such as Gove. My bet is that May will (just) beat Hammond in the party vote.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
What's the easiest, cheapest way to mitigate a Sterling crash next week?
I have no idea. Things have been much less bad than predicted, FTSE is marginally up over the week, the £ bounced back but some of that would have been BoE support.
If I had substantial savings, I'd stick them in Bitcoins for a week and see where we are then.
Well done to all PBers who called this right and made lots of money yesterday morning. I didn't get involved as I wanted REMAIN to win too much to be able to be objective. I was surprised at the divergence between the Betfair prices on the one hand and the early results and the views of the PB Brains trust on the other hand. I thought London might yet turn it around and wondered if PBers had calculated correctly.
As it turns out Pbers were resoundingly right and Betfair was wrong. So who was losing all the money on Betfair? For every winner there is a loser. Hardly any one here it appears. Unless we have "shy" Losers which must be possible.
So two huge votes in succession, GE 2015 and Referendum 2016, where the polls were massively wrong and the market was very slow to adjust to actual results.
Easy money for some here ......
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Who was losing all the money on Betfair? Gibraltar (internet betting companies based there), the City, SouthamObserver.
Southam didn't lose.
Scrapheap the only person on here who has admitted to making a loss I think.
Yup - 1,500..... a chunk but not most of May 2015's winnings. Least of my pain at the result!
The delicious irony is that Leavers are now using a tactic straight out of Ted Heath's playbook: 'If you had actually listened to what we were saying beneath the hullabaloo of the campaign you'd know that we always said we favoured immigration.'
Vote Leave =/= Nigel Farage. Vote Leave are indeed sticking to what they said. The problem is that a lot of Leave voters were listening to Farage.
Some insight behind that "awesome" REMAIN machine.
"At around 3pm, Cameron’s team took a phone call which made them convinced that victory was in the bag. Lord Cooper, a co-founder of the Populus polling company and the architect of the PM’s policy on gay marriage, called to say he thought the margin of victory for Remain would be 60/40. A few hours later, Populus published its final poll of the campaign – giving Remain a commanding ten-point lead. Not surprisingly, the findings triggered premature celebrations among the No 10 team. With presumptuous misplaced confidence, political adviser Laura Trott (one of the most senior women in Cameron’s ‘kitchen cabinet’) briefed every special adviser working for pro-Remain Cabinet ministers that the Government was home and dry."
The Levae campaign won inspite of the Vote Leave campaign, if my experinces were anything to go by. This was a real grassroots win, not won by slick campaigning. If the campaign had been better we (one group instead of many others), we might of won by a bigger share. But then Nigel would've played a bigger part so swings and roundabouts?
The EU can demand what it likes , but it is clearly laid down that it is for the departing state to activate Article 50. At the end of the day the UK Government is not even constitutionally bound to honour the Referendum result even though politically it would be very difficult to do otherwise.
It is equally clear that no state can hold the entire EU hostage by threatening to secede without actually triggering it.
If we faff about too long they might just declare us in breach of existing treaties and kick anyway
In what way are we in breach? They can't just make up legal facts or arguments. That is what their cherished treaties are for.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
That will not fly. It will be dangerous if Westminster goes down that path. You will get people on the street. Don't even think about it.
I agree. Being technically right is not the same as being politically right. It will be a close judgement.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
You are kidding? A serial flouncer and now turncoat? Who trust her with anything?
The EU can demand what it likes , but it is clearly laid down that it is for the departing state to activate Article 50. At the end of the day the UK Government is not even constitutionally bound to honour the Referendum result even though politically it would be very difficult to do otherwise.
It is equally clear that no state can hold the entire EU hostage by threatening to secede without actually triggering it.
If we faff about too long they might just declare us in breach of existing treaties and kick anyway
Watch and learn. Britain is no Greece.
This nation was known for its pirates before it's empire, I wouldn't be surprised if we held hostage an entire continent of spineless jellyfish, we could even put a special provision barring any territorial splinters to enter the EU as part of a deal with said Brussels jellyfish.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
You are kidding? A serial flouncer and now turncoat? Who trust her with anything?
She in particular would have difficulty with the failure to deliver the promised £350 million a week to the NHS.
They don't get it do they? They can't dictate terms anymore.
Good point. Unfortunately we are currently not laying down terms either. We have decided to LEAVE but are unwilling to engage in any activity that actually involves leaving.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
Wollaston has more chance of going for the Labour Leadership.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
You are kidding? A serial flouncer and now turncoat? Who trust her with anything?
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
What's the easiest, cheapest way to mitigate a Sterling crash next week?
I have no idea. Things have been much less bad than predicted, FTSE is marginally up over the week, the £ bounced back but some of that would have been BoE support.
If I had substantial savings, I'd stick them in Bitcoins for a week and see where we are then.
The trouble with saying the FTSE is up over the week is that traders always factor in uncertainty. Do you not think that it would have jumped massively on a Remain result?
They don't get it do they? They can't dictate terms anymore.
Good point. Unfortunately we are currently not laying down terms either. We have decided to LEAVE but are unwilling to engage in any activity that actually involves leaving.
Yes, I would rather welcome some sign on Monday that this country does still have a functioning government.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
They don't get it do they? They can't dictate terms anymore.
Good point. Unfortunately we are currently not laying down terms either. We have decided to LEAVE but are unwilling to engage in any activity that actually involves leaving.
The economy will dictate it, too much uncertainty will be harmful so any delays will need to be avoided.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
Why would Westminster do that? The Scottish government got a mandate last month to seek a second independence referendum if there were a material change in Scotland's circumstances. That has happened. Either we're democrats or we're not.
The SNP actually lost its majority last month - even Jim Sillars has said that there is no mandate for another Independence Referendum. As it was , turnout was only circa 55% for the Scottish Parliament compared with 85% in September 2014.
@JustineGreening: Today's a good day to say I'm in a happy same sex relationship, I campaigned for Stronger In but sometimes you're better off out! #Pride2016
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
For a leading campaigner-remainer, I agree absolutely. But May kept her head down and did her best to get as close to the fence as possible (ECHR etc). It's question of whether she can pull off the "unity candidate, bringing all sides together in the national interest" line against Boris's obvious divisiveness. It must be possible to build a constituency from the remainers plus the responsibles plus Tories who can't stand Boris...
Forget it, no one who supported Remain even as an abstract is going to be the next Tory leader, the Tory membership would never vote for one.
You have to think of someone who will be in the top 2 of MP's list and who can win the membership. May maybe on the top 2 but she will never win the membership, no Remainer can.
The problem was the outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates such as Gove. My bet is that May will (just) beat Hammond in the party vote.
The Tories are not the Labour party.
"outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates"
That may work in Labour but not with the Tory party which supported (outside of Cameron and his circle) the Leave campaign.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
Wollaston has more chance of going for the Labour Leadership.
I'm really hoping this woman crosses the floor. We'll take Gisela Stuart and Kate Hoey instead.
24 hours on and it is now abundantly clear that the Leave campaign don't want to leave the single market. The more bizarre development is that @SouthamObserver will go down in history as the greatest tipster of all time.
2. If the EU wants it enough, I think you'll find many of the problems you offer might disappear
If the EU can't offer preferential treatment to one of the largest economies in the world to keep it in, I doubt they're going to be falling over themselves to pave the way for Scottish membership. How many countries joining the EU have been given preferential treatment to get them in, particularly when they're as desperate to get in as Scotland apparently is?
3. The rUK may not find itself in quite as strong a position re. Scotland than it was before
It still controls 90% of Scottish trade, it still has the pound; it still controls all the institutions of government and UK global representation. The only thing that's changed as a result of this vote is a small proportion of Scots are very upset and are lashing out.
4. Arranging for the two choices to be worked up in parallel is, IMHO, exactly what Sturgeon will try and do. "Which gamble do you prefer?" is much sounder ground than "Do you fancy taking a big risk?", particularly if you can sell your gamble as the safer one.
So Sturgeon is going to be trying to persuade EU leaders to lay down a red carpet for Scotland's accession, while said EU leaders are busy negotiating Article 50 with Britain. Therefore, she'll have even less time to legislate for, announce, campaign and win a referendum, set up an entire independent state, and ensure it meets all the criteria for EU membership. That's assuming no negotiations are required for entry, of course. For a party that's been thinking about independence so long, one might have hoped its supporters would have considered exactly what it involves.
I'm being given the arched eyebrow death stare that eviscerates continents in a trice so in thanking you for your warm sentiments I'll dictate my final comment for the day.
SINDY2 and YES is no longer about process, financial implications or the mutterings of experts - BREXIT refers. It's become about the country Scotland want to be in the coming decades wart and all. There is an clear sense of unease and significant mood change afoot. It's tangible, undeniable and in my view unstoppable.
The UK is now done. I cherish its history, I love the British people but in sadness and hope for the future the parting of the ways is coming. I never thought I'd see the day when Scotland was independent let alone support it and perhaps I'll not live long enough to see it but there is a time and place in the events of man when fate sits on the shoulders of a nation. That time for Scotland beckons.
@JustineGreening: Today's a good day to say I'm in a happy same sex relationship, I campaigned for Stronger In but sometimes you're better off out! #Pride2016
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
What's the easiest, cheapest way to mitigate a Sterling crash next week?
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Don’t think the EU is in any position to demand anything; if it is in Britain’s best interest to sign the A50 quickly, then it will do so. As for Sturgeon, she may speak to whom she wishes, Scotland has no authority to call a referendum, - she doesn’t even command a majority in the Scottish house.
I agree on Article 50. But, with sufficient people power, constitutions are irrelevant. If the Scots organize and win their own referendum without Westminster's blessing, it will have the same real effect as a sanctioned referendum, and HMG would be foolish to treat it any other way.
Conversely, if London sought an unsanctioned referendum to become a City State, HMG could laugh it off with a high degree of confidence.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
I say give the Scots another go. We shouldn't deny them the same right to have their say as we have just had. I'm not sure Yes would win this time either, 38% of Scots voted to Leave and more voted No than remain. The silent majority in favour of the union may just still be keeping quiet and letting the angry Remain types vent. The crossover between the Yes vote and Remain vote will have been quite large, and if the UK does go down the EEA route I don't see how Yes would win.
Still I don't think they should be denied a say over their future. That wouldn't be right. I think Scotland could be a very successful country if they were independent, it would take a few years of hard labour (just as Brexit will) but I believe Scottish people are smart enough and would work hard enough to become a strong and successful nation. I'd be sad to see them go because of the shared history, but it is up to them and Westminster shouldn't stand in their way by denying them a vote.
I'm being given the arched eyebrow death stare that eviscerates continents in a trice so in thanking you for your warm sentiments I'll dictate my final comment for the day.
SINDY2 and YES is no longer about process, financial implications or the mutterings of experts - BREXIT refers. It's become about the country Scotland want to be in the coming decades wart and all. There is an clear sense of unease and significant mood change afoot. It's tangible, undeniable and in my view unstoppable.
The UK is now done. I cherish its history, I love the British people but in sadness and hope for the future the parting of the ways is coming. I never thought I'd see the day when Scotland was independent let alone support it and perhaps I'll not live long enough to see it but there is a time and place in the events of man when fate sits on the shoulders of a nation. That time for Scotland beckons.
Who'd have thought JackW?
A poignant post that defines the feeling now among proud Europeans of all stripes. I was virulently anti-independence. I now think Scotland should go, be independent in Europe, and we will all wish her well.
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
For a leading campaigner-remainer, I agree absolutely. But May kept her head down and did her best to get as close to the fence as possible (ECHR etc). It's question of whether she can pull off the "unity candidate, bringing all sides together in the national interest" line against Boris's obvious divisiveness. It must be possible to build a constituency from the remainers plus the responsibles plus Tories who can't stand Boris...
Forget it, no one who supported Remain even as an abstract is going to be the next Tory leader, the Tory membership would never vote for one.
You have to think of someone who will be in the top 2 of MP's list and who can win the membership. May maybe on the top 2 but she will never win the membership, no Remainer can.
The problem was the outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates such as Gove. My bet is that May will (just) beat Hammond in the party vote.
The Tories are not the Labour party.
"outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates"
That may work in Labour but not with the Tory party which supported (outside of Cameron and his circle) the Leave campaign.
Yes, they're not the Labour party. They wouldn't be stupid enough to nominate an unsuitable candidate just so that the membership could decide.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
' Immigration to the UK could increase by more than 10% as a result of EU enlargement, according to research commissioned by the Home Office.
A report indicated that up to 13,000 extra economic migrants could come to Britain each year as a direct result of 10 new countries joining the organisation.
The Conservatives have expressed fears that expanding the EU would result in large numbers of people from the former Communist countries looking for a more prosperous future in countries like the UK.
But Home Office Minister Beverley Hughes told MPs: "The number coming here for employment will be minimal." '
Looking back, is it possible that they had no idea what they were doing? In my old stumping ground of East Anglia, places like Wisbech, Boston, and King's Lynn were transformed within a couple of years.
"13,000 extra economic migrants" ... "the number coming here for employment will be minimal" - were they serious? Were they lying? Were they idiots? Were they basing this on some historic data and made a tremendous miscalculation by doing so?
Almost certainly this swung it for Leave, but to be fair there is very little the government at the time could have done about it had they wanted to prevent it. Temporary controls would have postponed the issue, not solved it - no mustard cut there. And free movement is entrenched in the EU's DNA and is fundamental to "the Project", so I can't see that even vigorous lobbying for reforming freedom of labour laws (not that the Labour government of the time would have been up for that anyway) could have had any sway.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Don’t think the EU is in any position to demand anything; if it is in Britain’s best interest to sign the A50 quickly, then it will do so. As for Sturgeon, she may speak to whom she wishes, Scotland has no authority to call a referendum, - she doesn’t even command a majority in the Scottish house.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
And former Labour voters like me. Female, 40s and lower middle class.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
I say give the Scots another go. We shouldn't deny them the same right to have their say as we have just had. I'm not sure Yes would win this time either, 38% of Scots voted to Leave and more voted No than remain. The silent majority in favour of the union may just still be keeping quiet and letting the angry Remain types vent. The crossover between the Yes vote and Remain vote will have been quite large, and if the UK does go down the EEA route I don't see how Yes would win.
Still I don't think they should be denied a say over their future. That wouldn't be right. I think Scotland could be a very successful country if they were independent, it would take a few years of hard labour (just as Brexit will) but I believe Scottish people are smart enough and would work hard enough to become a strong and successful nation. I'd be sad to see them go because of the shared history, but it is up to them and Westminster shouldn't stand in their way by denying them a vote.
I agree with your analysis but disagree with your second sentence. 'They' are 'We' - Scots voted on Thursday just the same as the rest of the UK - it is 'our' collective decision. That's how democracy works, even though there are a few over the last 48 hours who have forgotten that.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Don’t think the EU is in any position to demand anything; if it is in Britain’s best interest to sign the A50 quickly, then it will do so. As for Sturgeon, she may speak to whom she wishes, Scotland has no authority to call a referendum, - she doesn’t even command a majority in the Scottish house.
Faisal Islam should take a long holiday.
He's pitifully shouty and biased. I never liked him on C4 - he's no better on Sky.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I'm being given the arched eyebrow death stare that eviscerates continents in a trice so in thanking you for your warm sentiments I'll dictate my final comment for the day.
SINDY2 and YES is no longer about process, financial implications or the mutterings of experts - BREXIT refers. It's become about the country Scotland want to be in the coming decades wart and all. There is an clear sense of unease and significant mood change afoot. It's tangible, undeniable and in my view unstoppable.
The UK is now done. I cherish its history, I love the British people but in sadness and hope for the future the parting of the ways is coming. I never thought I'd see the day when Scotland was independent let alone support it and perhaps I'll not live long enough to see it but there is a time and place in the events of man when fate sits on the shoulders of a nation. That time for Scotland beckons.
Who'd have thought JackW?
A poignant post that defines the feeling now among proud Europeans of all stripes. I was virulently anti-independence. I now think Scotland should go, be independent in Europe, and we will all wish her well.
Completely agree. And we should do all we can to help. It will be in our interests too.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
So long as you add 'and smaller Welshman', it'll be perfectly fine.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
And former Labour voters like me. Female, 40s and lower middle class.
Strange thing is when the next election comes along some people will still be studying polls, you might as well read tea leaves as believe these people.
Who won the referendum prediction btw? I went 52% Leave on a 52% turnout, interesting to see how close the winner was.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
Use whichever terms you like, I can't imagine anybody takes you seriously anymore.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
This is the most extraordinary, fluid and dynamic situation. Where we end up is anyone's guess, but it's clear the UK won't exist in five years time. The effect that will have on the current establishment will be huge. London will not be independent, of course, but it will probably have many more powers. This could be very exciting and may not turn out to be much to many prominent Leavers' liking.
Strange thing is when the next election comes along some people will still be studying polls, you might as well read tea leaves as believe these people.
Who won the referendum prediction btw? I went 52% Leave on a 52% turnout, interesting to see how close the winner was.
Polls are still useful, but if there's an "interesting" polls floating about, analysis of the crosstabs is essential.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
I think it has changed a lot over the past 4 decades. As a kid, a lot of the civil service, particularly the middle ranks, would be conservative. Now I get the feeling that pretty much everyone in the public sector is 'anyone but the Tories'
Thus I think the bulk of support comes from retirees, private sector middle class, the wealthy (other than champagne socialists and luvvies) and the military.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
This is the third time in my life that an event that will obviously change the world has happened. The last was in 2001, the time before that (as you note) in 1989.
What was the last one before that? The Cuban Missile Crisis?
@MarkKleinmanSky: Exclusive: Tata Steel bidders including billionaire tycoon Wilbur Ross get cold feet over UK's decision to leave EU. https://t.co/1FU1gsKwHJ
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
This is the most extraordinary, fluid and dynamic situation. Where we end up is anyone's guess, but it's clear the UK won't exist in five years time. The effect that will have on the current establishment will be huge. London will not be independent, of course, but it will probably have many more powers. This could be very exciting and may not turn out to be much to many prominent Leavers' liking.
I think that a 'Great Englander' would probably be better. In 5 years time the EU will comprise of Germany and the baggage they can't get rid of. In effect Germany will be paying all the bills of Eastern and Southern Europe - and I hope they enjoy it.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
This is the third time in my life that an event that will obviously change the world has happened. The last was in 2001, the time before that (as you note) in 1989.
What was the last one before that? The Cuban Missile Crisis?
24 hours on and it is now abundantly clear that the Leave campaign don't want to leave the single market. The more bizarre development is that @SouthamObserver will go down in history as the greatest tipster of all time.
Ha, ha. But there's no genius in predicting night will follow day.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
This is the most extraordinary, fluid and dynamic situation. Where we end up is anyone's guess, but it's clear the UK won't exist in five years time. The effect that will have on the current establishment will be huge. London will not be independent, of course, but it will probably have many more powers. This could be very exciting and may not turn out to be much to many prominent Leavers' liking.
London is still a great, cosmopolitan outward-looking city. Saving it from being contaminated by the rest of England is going to be an important project.
Give it another day or two and it will have shrunk back to its usual horizon for metropolitan types - just London. That's possibly why Labour didn't see this coming.
I'm feeling hugely optimistic today - the widely billed apocalypse failed to materialise yesterday, there are all kinds of interesting scenarios ahead in the negotiations (and the future of the EU) and domestic politics and for the future.
As a country we have lost our way. People don't know what we stand for any more, people are selfish and introverted, our economy had ground to a halt with no thought beyond the immediate future.
Suddenly we are looking at ourselves and our society and talking about the good and the bad and asking the big questions. We are being forced to think about the medium and long term and what decisions we need to make now. The political and economic establishment has been routed and doesn't know what to do with itself.
Democracy is Revolution. We should be rejoicing. I know I am.
This is a great post.
I also think people saying "the government NEEDS to be DOING something RIGHT NOW!" may have missed the revolutionary aspect of what has just happened. It will take time for it to be digested, before it can be sensibly acted on.
I hope that some progress will be made next week - as rcs says, businesses will need clarity over the basic structure of a deal, and it's likely that there will be some consensus on that in political circles - but it's a much to expect this to be dealt with over the weekend, when everyone is emotional and sleep-deprived.
Suspect the contingency planning was very very poor and that would inevitably slow a response down. If I'm correct then that's my biggest gripe.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
I strongly encourage you to use that expression freely. It's a winner.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
I think this underestimates the stakes. This is not about small things like EEA vs FTA and it's not just about Britain.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
The problem is that those who believe in "The Project" don't believe in reality.
If they did, they would realise that "The Project" is a very very long term project whereas they have been rushing at it. The first frog has left the pot. Unless they take it off the stove, more will follow.
The other advantage of waiting is that we get to see how the EU public react.
The EU elite is right now suffering a deep malaise as they are in shocked anger. Let things settle / fester for a while. We in the rUK were gearing up to feel quite similar thoughts about Scotland during Sindy1. If we get Sindy2 and a vote to leave we should also sit down, have a cup of tea and remain calm. The end of the UK including Scotland and the birth of a UK excluding Scotland wouldn't affect the price of cheese - so to speak. England would save its EU contributions and its Barnett ones too. I'm sure we'd be allowed to buy whiskey and holiday in Edinburgh. Identity counts - as we discovered so very powerfully this week. If Scotland has got a different demos from the rUK then it is best to let them go and be friends. FWIW I think they'd vote to stay and the SNP will lose much of its current mojo. Trying to become a punishment minded prison is not a viable plan - as the EU is about to discover.
Would you point out the donate button please - I have a contribution to make.
It was a VERY profitable night.
I'd love to know who was still laying Leave after midnight.
And a big thanks to AndyJS and his spreadsheet - worth more than all the 'experts' put together.
Andy's spreadsheet was indispensable. It was amazing how the odds on Leave remained so high so long. It was like May 2015 again. I piled everything on Leave after Sunderland and made the biggest gains I've ever made on political betting. It much more than offsets the poorer Euro exchange rate I'll get for my holidays!
My share portfolio has done OK as well as I have significant holdings in Astrazeneca and GSK which are $ denominated and actually went up yesterday. So personally I've done well out of this and I'm well insulated from the damage that is coming.
But I really grieve for the losers - particularly the young, whose futures have been blighted by the elderly and the ignorant.
Yes, I absolutely should of said that. AndyJS added more illumination to the event than BBC and Sky put together.
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
Yes an executive summary would be nice.
Problem is, as soon as it is clear Free movement will be part of the deal, the howls of betrayal will begin.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Small "c" conservative working-class like me.
I think it has changed a lot over the past 4 decades. As a kid, a lot of the civil service, particularly the middle ranks, would be conservative. Now I get the feeling that pretty much everyone in the public sector is 'anyone but the Tories'
Thus I think the bulk of support comes from retirees, private sector middle class, the wealthy (other than champagne socialists and luvvies) and the military.
I worked in the NHS and there were a lot of "shy" conservatives like me. You just kept quiet about it.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
Strange thing is when the next election comes along some people will still be studying polls, you might as well read tea leaves as believe these people.
Who won the referendum prediction btw? I went 52% Leave on a 52% turnout, interesting to see how close the winner was.
Polls are still useful but you just have to be very careful in how to read them. Trump might get previous non voters out with his populist platform in the US. That would make a mockery of the polls there too - we simply don't know though. He'd need to close the gap in the polls to win though. But slightly behind in the polls and he could well win. (Like Brexit did)
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
That's the problem with the EU at the moment too, and precisely why we should not trigger Article 50 until everyone has had time to calm down and adapt to the new reality.
But we do need Heads of Terms asap. All investment decisions in the UK will be put on hold until we have an outline of what Britain post-EU will look like.
Yes an executive summary would be nice.
Problem is, as soon as it is clear Free movement will be part of the deal, the howls of betrayal will begin.
Let them, I wish it were possible to buy shares in Betrayal as @SouthamObserver has suggested!
We have the Leave vote now and we need to move forwards to protect our economic interests and fix immigration over the long term within the EEA/EFTA with the Norwegians and Swiss involved as well. We won't solve the issue of immigration over night, anyone who believes that needs their head checked.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Much like most party members - interested in politics more than the average punter - otherwise pretty ordinary middle of the road people.
Comments
If I had substantial savings, I'd stick them in Bitcoins for a week and see where we are then.
Farage disowned the £350million to NHS 'mistake'.
So Gove and Boris will have to take responsibility for that lie.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/nigel-farage-350-million-pledge-to-fund-the-nhs-was-a-mistake/
But then Nigel would've played a bigger part so swings and roundabouts?
Britain is no Greece.
This nation was known for its pirates before it's empire, I wouldn't be surprised if we held hostage an entire continent of spineless jellyfish, we could even put a special provision barring any territorial splinters to enter the EU as part of a deal with said Brussels jellyfish.
@JustineGreening: Today's a good day to say I'm in a happy same sex relationship, I campaigned for Stronger In but sometimes you're better off out! #Pride2016
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629646
"outrageously fallacious nature of the Leave campaign has tarred the other possible Leave candidates"
That may work in Labour but not with the Tory party which supported (outside of Cameron and his circle) the Leave campaign.
SINDY2 and YES is no longer about process, financial implications or the mutterings of experts - BREXIT refers. It's become about the country Scotland want to be in the coming decades wart and all. There is an clear sense of unease and significant mood change afoot. It's tangible, undeniable and in my view unstoppable.
The UK is now done. I cherish its history, I love the British people but in sadness and hope for the future the parting of the ways is coming. I never thought I'd see the day when Scotland was independent let alone support it and perhaps I'll not live long enough to see it but there is a time and place in the events of man when fate sits on the shoulders of a nation. That time for Scotland beckons.
Who'd have thought JackW?
Conversely, if London sought an unsanctioned referendum to become a City State, HMG could laugh it off with a high degree of confidence.
@ftwestminster: Britain must not hold EU to ransom https://t.co/W4LQWyR38x
BTW, are Brexiteers who advocating holding them to ransom suggesting that will somehow get us a better deal?
Still I don't think they should be denied a say over their future. That wouldn't be right. I think Scotland could be a very successful country if they were independent, it would take a few years of hard labour (just as Brexit will) but I believe Scottish people are smart enough and would work hard enough to become a strong and successful nation. I'd be sad to see them go because of the shared history, but it is up to them and Westminster shouldn't stand in their way by denying them a vote.
"13,000 extra economic migrants" ... "the number coming here for employment will be minimal" - were they serious? Were they lying? Were they idiots? Were they basing this on some historic data and made a tremendous miscalculation by doing so?
Almost certainly this swung it for Leave, but to be fair there is very little the government at the time could have done about it had they wanted to prevent it. Temporary controls would have postponed the issue, not solved it - no mustard cut there. And free movement is entrenched in the EU's DNA and is fundamental to "the Project", so I can't see that even vigorous lobbying for reforming freedom of labour laws (not that the Labour government of the time would have been up for that anyway) could have had any sway.
I appreciate that the term "little Englander" offends. Once we've left the EU, once Scotland has become independent and once (as will inevitably then happen) Northern Ireland and the Republic reach some new closer accommodation, will it then be ok to use it?
Any UK splinter (lets say the SNP) barred for eternity from entering the EU will be a nice part of any ransom.
Pure comedy gold.
This is real history. The most momentous change in Europe since the Berlin Wall came down. Before this is over, Europe will not be the same.
semi colon right bracket
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Who won the referendum prediction btw? I went 52% Leave on a 52% turnout, interesting to see how close the winner was.
From Hubris to Nemesis
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/745920620584669185
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746075089658126341
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746118392281706496
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746121561409785856
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746142675091480577
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746161085284290560
Thus I think the bulk of support comes from retirees, private sector middle class, the wealthy (other than champagne socialists and luvvies) and the military.
What was the last one before that? The Cuban Missile Crisis?
@MarkKleinmanSky: Exclusive: Tata Steel bidders including billionaire tycoon Wilbur Ross get cold feet over UK's decision to leave EU. https://t.co/1FU1gsKwHJ
"You can feel the country shrinking by the hour."
Give it another day or two and it will have shrunk back to its usual horizon for metropolitan types - just London. That's possibly why Labour didn't see this coming.
I also think people saying "the government NEEDS to be DOING something RIGHT NOW!" may have missed the revolutionary aspect of what has just happened. It will take time for it to be digested, before it can be sensibly acted on.
I hope that some progress will be made next week - as rcs says, businesses will need clarity over the basic structure of a deal, and it's likely that there will be some consensus on that in political circles - but it's a much to expect this to be dealt with over the weekend, when everyone is emotional and sleep-deprived.
Suspect the contingency planning was very very poor and that would inevitably slow a response down. If I'm correct then that's my biggest gripe.
If they did, they would realise that "The Project" is a very very long term project whereas they have been rushing at it. The first frog has left the pot. Unless they take it off the stove, more will follow.
The other advantage of waiting is that we get to see how the EU public react.
If there was a vote on unification how would it fall north and south of the border and what would be the outcome?
We have the Leave vote now and we need to move forwards to protect our economic interests and fix immigration over the long term within the EEA/EFTA with the Norwegians and Swiss involved as well. We won't solve the issue of immigration over night, anyone who believes that needs their head checked.
What does it mean?