That report on BBC News just now that the EU either want Cameron to get on with article 50 now or a new PM to be appointed in the next few days. Is quite beautiful that they can't get what they want this time, unlike how they have treated so many other countries.
Isn't it just. I've just been reading a lengthy piece in the Mail that's full of quotes and photos of various Eurocrats and foreign leaders - I looked at them and felt enormous relief that they were no longer in charge of the tiller.
The true answer (so the one you won't get from any politician) is that no-one knows. The economics need unraveled and it is not always clear how that will happen.
What we know it isn't, is the £15bn nonsense figure from the likes of Kevin Hague which consider that all costs currently borne by Scotland would exist for an independent Scotland. It would also matter what government Scotland voted for.
The reality is that it would likely be between £4bn and £10bn. The EU cap of 3.5% would require a max deficit of roughly £9bn so it is both achievable for Scotland and would not require tax rises or spending cuts.
All these figures are with current negligible oil revenues.
But amazingly even after Sunderland had declared and credible reports were coming in from round the country, I was still able to put another £200 on at 4/1 at 1.13am. That was ridiculous and quite remarkable poor performance by the bookies.
To assume that the bookies lost because the prices were wrong - as they undoubtedly were - is a massive category error.
I am sure the bookies made a lot of money overall. However, I think they likely took a big loss on all bets placed after 11pm.
Betfair remember is a zero sum game.. Betfair take 5% comission from all bets so thats how they make their money.
Agreed-too much has been made of the immigration issue-that said Uk is always going to be much more of a magnet than Norway and thus the movement of people will be an issue so we are going to need to address this at some stage.
Lol - I'm sure the idea of addressing the issue 'at some stage' will go down really well in Sunderland/Barnsley/........
For purely aesthetic reasons immigration is the one thing that could have tempted me to Leave: too much of our glorious countryside is being concreted over, and too many awful dwellings are being crammed into town centres for my liking.
Interesting, as I don't think enough of our glorious countryside is being concreted over - godsdsamned NIMBYs in the country forcing cramped little places in town centres beyond all reason.
Exactly. As anyone who as ever flown over England in a light aircraft knows, it's all fields. The problem is that all the new housing (such as it is) is blocks of one-bed flats in cities, mostly bought up by buy-to-let so-called investors.
Westminster needs to get a grip and show some leadership. We need a team in place to sort this out and it needs to happen now.
Conspiracy theory number 1 - they want to delay until October to desperately hope something really vital happens which means they can ask to vote again.
I suspect the same.
But they have (at least) two years in which to do such waiting, even if the article is invoked tomorrow. Two years is a long time in politics, and I suspect the next two years are going to feel particularly long. Even when the terms of exit are known, who is to say that there won't be a campaign for the exit terms to go to another vote, before we leave? There are actually good as well as opportunistic arguments for such a call, not least because no-one ever put before the population any sort of proposal for what Brexit would look like.
If you make the declaration, isn't that it though? You are are inexorably on the way out in 2 years, whatever the state of things at the end aren't you?
I don't actually think it entirely absurd to have a confirmation vote on the terms at the end of the negotiations, but I had thought there'd be no point? It seriously cannot be the case that if Scotland went Indy (probably 65-35 now) that after 2 years of bitter negotiations there'd be a vote which theoretically might be 'F*** it, let's go back to the status quo, no hard feelings'.
People are talking here as if the EU is negotiating from a position of power.
They just lost their second biggest contributor and are carrying two, perhaps more, bankrupt countries. The EU leaders also know that there is growing agitation among the populations on the continent for the EU to change.
I wouldn't be feeling that comfortable if I were running the EU right now. Greece is a major crisis on the horizon.
I just heard a couple of European journalists on R5L and their view was that the EU will talk hard now but reach a deal that's generally OK for everyone. They thought that pragmatism would trump anger - very British really.
The EU mostly seem keen to get it out of the way - that suggests to me that this places us in a reasonable position to get a decent deal. While there is undoubtedly a temptation to punish us 'pour encourager les autres', the EU is as vulnerable, if not more so, to continuing economic uncertainty as the UK and there will be significant pressure from soe governments and business to resolve it amicably.
From a Scottish independence perspective, of course, the longer it takes the more time the SNP have to get a deal in place to offer to the Scottish people to remain in the EU before Brexit happens rather than reapplying having left. The interesting question is how interested Brussels and other EU governments will be in facilitating that while trying simultaneously to negotiate Brexit in a way that doesn't damage the Eurozone economy.
Westminster needs to get a grip and show some leadership. We need a team in place to sort this out and it needs to happen now.
I think it's shameful Cameron, Osborne, May etc have all gone to ground.
Before the vote, Leavers on here were saying that post-Brexit a period of cool reflection was required. When I pointed out this wasn't a yoga class I was firmly informed that nothing good comes of rushing things. I'm of that mind too now I must say. Let's put our feet up, have a cup of tea. It'll all turn out right in the end...
Yes, it has been less than 48 hours from the vote. We need to let the dust settle...
I can understand the Remains being upset. They did after all repeat every scare story and attack line in slavish fashion despite the utter absurdity of most of it, over the course of months, only to endure ignominious defeat.
But have ANY of them, NorthWales aside, mentioned accepting the result getting on with it, making Britain a success? Nope. They're either still indulging in bitter recrimination, trying to find some comfort in the economic travails of the UK, or fantasising about constitutional chaos. Its very telling. These are the people that were telling us they were just as patriotic as Leavers and had Britain's interests at heart. I'm sure irl they are lovely people, kind to dogs etc., but politically they're simply repulsive.
Actually as a Remainer I posted earlier that we need to accept the result. Still angry about it. And still think it is a monumental mistake. But there you go, need to make best of it now and negotiate something decent out of it.
I can understand the Remains being upset. They did after all repeat every scare story and attack line in slavish fashion despite the utter absurdity of most of it, over the course of months, only to endure ignominious defeat.
But have ANY of them, NorthWales aside, mentioned accepting the result getting on with it, making Britain a success? Nope. They're either still indulging in bitter recrimination, trying to find some comfort in the economic travails of the UK, or fantasising about constitutional chaos. Its very telling. These are the people that were telling us they were just as patriotic as Leavers and had Britain's interests at heart. I'm sure irl they are lovely people, kind to dogs etc., but politically they're simply repulsive.
But what is especially dangerous is they are not accepting responsibility for the millions who voted Leave out of desperation about a political class that will not listen, or even worse says it is listening and does nothing. While I see there are some writers who get it, most don't seem to accept that it's their hardline Europhilia that and stance on migration that is driving people to the margins.
That our entire political and cultural establishment was so uniformally for Remain should be ringing alarm bells.
Cultural perhaps, but not political - did you miss the hundreds of MPs who were for leave, they were establishment too.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Where is Osborne? Has anybody heard from him since Thursday night. Has he gone for a nob interview at Goldman Sachs?
My understanding is that on Friday morning Osborne went straight into doing his job as Chancellor with a meeting with G7 and attempting to limit the fallout from Brexit economically. I would contend that he was in part responsible for that damage with his dire warnings before the vote but he did at least step up to the plate and get on with trying to put right some of the damage he had caused.
There was also a report that, unlike Cameron, is not intending running away and will continue to do his job and to provide stability until he is removed.
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
But amazingly even after Sunderland had declared and credible reports were coming in from round the country, I was still able to put another £200 on at 4/1 at 1.13am. That was ridiculous and quite remarkable poor performance by the bookies.
To assume that the bookies lost because the prices were wrong - as they undoubtedly were - is a massive category error.
I am sure the bookies made a lot of money overall. However, I think they likely took a big loss on all bets placed after 11pm.
Well, you're wrong there.
Are you saying there was a lot of money going on Remain after 11pm? I guess its possible it just doesn't feel very likely to me. What would be your basis for thinking that?
People are talking here as if the EU is negotiating from a position of power.
They just lost their second biggest contributor and are carrying two, perhaps more, bankrupt countries. The EU leaders also know that there is growing agitation among the populations on the continent for the EU to change.
I wouldn't be feeling that comfortable if I were running the EU right now. Greece is a major crisis on the horizon.
I just heard a couple of European journalists on R5L and their view was that the EU will talk hard now but reach a deal that's generally OK for everyone. They thought that pragmatism would trump anger - very British really.
The EU mostly seem keen to get it out of the way - that suggests to me that this places us in a reasonable position to get a decent deal. While there is undoubtedly a temptation to punish us 'pour encourager les autres', the EU is as vulnerable, if not more so, to continuing economic uncertainty as the UK and there will be significant pressure from soe governments and business to resolve it amicably.
From a Scottish independence perspective, of course, the longer it takes the more time the SNP have to get a deal in place to offer to the Scottish people to remain in the EU before Brexit happens rather than reapplying having left. The interesting question is how interested Brussels and other EU governments will be in facilitating that while trying simultaneously to negotiate Brexit in a way that doesn't damage the Eurozone economy.
Scotland will just be a bargaining chip for the EU. Why do they want another country with a sizeable bunch of eurosceptics ?
Of more interest will be the SE Tories who want to ditch the place.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
Aftertiming alert: I'd taken 12/1 against Cameron to resign, on the advice of pb (sorry, I've forgotten who) as a proxy at better odds for Brexit, and it was Cameron's pledge to continue as PM to Andrew Marr last weekend which gave me greatest pause, though in the end I remembered Mandy Rice-Davies.
Both campaigns were appalling. Predominantly negative with no vision for the future, respect for the electorate, or even much regard for such facts as were available. So here we are: half-in, half-out, and no idea what to do next.
How on earth did 200 posts on a new thread happen whilst I was doing this for the previous one?
Anyway -
"You Brexit, you Fixit"
It has to be a leaver as conservative leader, no remainer could withstand the contradictions in the job.
Also, with the law of unintended consequences, it is inevitable that the UK is now over, it's gone. All of that history and success of recent centuries and it took a vote to do it. A vote that some probably hadn't even registered as being a vote on the UK.
Scotland, definitely gone, Northern Ireland I do think will come to some agreement with Scotland and the EU. Not convinced of a united Ireland though. What's the Andorra situation? Smaller I know, but they have joint French and Spanish heads of state don't they?
London? This is potentially the most interesting. Many fellow northerners hate London, seeing it is a different country which takes all the money and such (yes,I know, but rational thought has not been the driver here). Well, why not?
I can understand the Remains being upset. They did after all repeat every scare story and attack line in slavish fashion despite the utter absurdity of most of it, over the course of months, only to endure ignominious defeat.
But have ANY of them, NorthWales aside, mentioned accepting the result getting on with it, making Britain a success? Nope. They're either still indulging in bitter recrimination, trying to find some comfort in the economic travails of the UK, or fantasising about constitutional chaos. Its very telling. These are the people that were telling us they were just as patriotic as Leavers and had Britain's interests at heart. I'm sure irl they are lovely people, kind to dogs etc., but politically they're simply repulsive.
But what is especially dangerous is they are not accepting responsibility for the millions who voted Leave out of desperation about a political class that will not listen, or even worse says it is listening and does nothing. While I see there are some writers who get it, most don't seem to accept that it's their hardline Europhilia that and stance on migration that is driving people to the margins.
That our entire political and cultural establishment was so uniformally for Remain should be ringing alarm bells.
Well, I like to think I get it. Remain lost because the policy of unlimited free movement of people cost us remaining in the EU.
"Does that mean the UK stays in the EU indefinitely?"
The EU wants us gone so we don't infect the others. "There's a man at the door with bubonic plague, and he's asking for money." "Give him anything, just get rid of him."
I see the Labour "moderates" are still throwing their toys out of the pram.
I'm still yet to hear why, in the aftermath of the country voting to leave the EU, it's a good idea to go for a more Euro-enthusiast leader.
Because the result was close? Because many of the people who voted to leave will have changed their minds in a year or two thanks to the uncertainty and crap things happening.
Again, do you really think it's a good idea for Labour to base its strategy on "uniting Remain voters"?
Outside of London, some of Remain's strongest areas were in Berkshire, Surrey and Oxfordshire. These are not people even SLIGHTLY left-inclined, even Blair wasn't centrist enough for them - they are all very wealthy people who were concerned about protecting their incomes from economic turmoil. They are not voting Labour no matter what.
This idea of Labour being the "party of Remain" really is a recipe for Scottish Labour on steroids.
The opportunity for the LibDems is that, in England, they are the only potential 'party of Remain' with the ability (more theoretical than actual right now) to appeal to the type of areas that lean to remain (a striking number of which have had LibDem MPs or Councillors in the past). I understand some LibDem referendum campaigners report getting a surprisingly warm welcome from what they would call soft Tory voters, and it is hard to see such voters looking at their own party right now with anything other than concern. As Parris says in the Times, the Tories have to own the Euref result now.
Agreed on Lib Dems, could be a big opportunity for them, tough they'll need to think how they accommodate themselves to a post-Brexit world as rejoining won't be much of an option I'd have thought. They'd be in an even better potential position if Farron weren't such a drip. Maybe I'm being too harsh on him, he's clearly an excellent local campaigner, but he may find it hard to cut through nationally in the way that Ashdown, Kennedy and Clegg (for a bit) did.
Sturgeon is going to go for it. These are amazing times. The UK is coming to an end.
Big mistake. She'll destroy her party.
It will be destroyed if she doesn't go for it.
She could have continued the con for a few more years, now the emptiness of SNP " independence " agenda will be made apparent to the people.
Poor old Monica really showing how little you know.
We'll see.
We shall indeed, I am sure she will go for it.
I think she'll just gon for more powers. Scotland already has it's power over fisheries and farming coming back to it from Brussels at some point. That can be added to.
Tories seem to have vanished in Scotland, Ruthie posted missing, wonder why.
Kezia also got off the blocks early with a 'No to Indyref2' statement, now a bit quiet as Tory and Labour columnists and political figures start converting.
And with regard to Britain as a whole, personally I find it amazing that not only did England back Brexit, but so did Wales, and flipping Northern Ireland, which was being spoken of in the same terms as Gibraltar, was 44% Leave!
As for Scotland, if anything, it was Leave that was a proxy for Indy - only the profound Leavers I know have been supportive of my Brexit facebook posts. The Remainers sure wanted to stay in the EU, and most of them in the UK too. Scots are not stupid. People here are leaping to the conclusion that they will vote for penury in a fit of Brussels inspired rage. No.
I wish I could believe that. It looks like lingering affection for the Union has dipped even further with the end of the EU connection, and no longer is enough, and plenty didn't care about the economic consequences before and now even fewer do.
People are talking here as if the EU is negotiating from a position of power.
They just lost their second biggest contributor and are carrying two, perhaps more, bankrupt countries. The EU leaders also know that there is growing agitation among the populations on the continent for the EU to change.
I wouldn't be feeling that comfortable if I were running the EU right now. Greece is a major crisis on the horizon.
I just heard a couple of European journalists on R5L and their view was that the EU will talk hard now but reach a deal that's generally OK for everyone. .
They thought that before and were wrong. In cases like these, I bet on people acting in what might be thought irrational fashion, particularly when there are so many parties involved with nominally aligned interests but who have their own domestic pressures to focus on.
Tories seem to have vanished in Scotland, Ruthie posted missing, wonder why.
Judging by the interview with Adam Tomkins on Scotland Tonight on Friday, it may be that Ruth does not have the full support of her party any more. I'm not certain that her new MSPs are going to be universally backing her no compromise No position.
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
Yesterday"
Yesterday all my troubles seemed so far away. Now it looks as though they're here to stay. Oh, I believe in yesterday.
Suddenly I'm not half the man I used to be. There's a shadow hanging over me. Oh, yesterday came suddenly.
Why she had to go, I don't know, she wouldn't say. I said something wrong, now I long for yesterday.
Yesterday love was such an easy game to play. Now I need a place to hide away. Oh, I believe in yesterday.
Why she had to go, I don't know, she wouldn't say. I said something wrong, now I long for yesterday.
Yesterday love was such an easy game to play. Now I need a place to hide away. Oh, I believe in yesterday.
Westminster needs to get a grip and show some leadership. We need a team in place to sort this out and it needs to happen now.
Conspiracy theory number 1 - they want to delay until October to desperately hope something really vital happens which means they can ask to vote again.
I suspect the same.
But they have (at least) two years in which to do such waiting, even if the article is invoked tomorrow. Two years is a long time in politics, and I suspect the next two years are going to feel particularly long. Even when the terms of exit are known, who is to say that there won't be a campaign for the exit terms to go to another vote, before we leave? There are actually good as well as opportunistic arguments for such a call, not least because no-one ever put before the population any sort of proposal for what Brexit would look like.
If you make the declaration, isn't that it though? You are are inexorably on the way out in 2 years, whatever the state of things at the end aren't you?
I don't actually think it entirely absurd to have a confirmation vote on the terms at the end of the negotiations, but I had thought there'd be no point? It seriously cannot be the case that if Scotland went Indy (probably 65-35 now) that after 2 years of bitter negotiations there'd be a vote which theoretically might be 'F*** it, let's go back to the status quo, no hard feelings'.
Legally I think you might have a point. But everything from here on is unprecedented. And politics will trump process every time. It will all depend on how much the UK gets hit by adverse economic winds over the next two years and how much buyers' remorse there is - both with the Leave vote itself, and with the politicians that end up in charge as a consequence.
Personally I think the chances of an actual EU exit are still not too far from evens - not because I think there will be a huge conspiracy, but because a scenario where two years' of uncertainty (at best) and a shedload of broken promises will deliver an environment where PM Boris surpasses Thatcher during the depths of her unpopularity. In such circumstances the clamour for a yes/no say on the exit terms might become irresistible, particularly if managed to unite the establishment with a lot of discontented voters.
The really baffling thing was when Remain moved back to being favourites at 2.30am.
Who thought that, why did they think it and how much money did they lose because of it ?
It's when the first London results came in and people saw how strong REMAIN was going to be there.
But it never really looked enough to offset the North, the Midlands and the Shires...
But Barking announced quickly a big Leave win showing that outer London would vote differently to Inner.
I suspect that many people don't have an understanding of how populous non-metropolitan England is.
As always its the medium sized towns in England which were decisive.
The population of non metropolitan London has increased dramatically over the last 30 years. Basically the immigrants have headed for the cities and the more upwardly mobile inhabitants of the cities to the shires.
In elections it is disguised by large rural constituencies piling up tory votes making the tory vote inefficient
Just a point about the European commissioner. We may be leaving but we shouldn't be giving up our right to a member of the Commission should we, even if only a minor portfolio? We might still be there for another 2 and a half years, a lot of things can happen in that time.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
People are talking here as if the EU is negotiating from a position of power.
They just lost their second biggest contributor and are carrying two, perhaps more, bankrupt countries. The EU leaders also know that there is growing agitation among the populations on the continent for the EU to change.
I wouldn't be feeling that comfortable if I were running the EU right now. Greece is a major crisis on the horizon.
I just heard a couple of European journalists on R5L and their view was that the EU will talk hard now but reach a deal that's generally OK for everyone. They thought that pragmatism would trump anger - very British really.
The EU mostly seem keen to get it out of the way - that suggests to me that this places us in a reasonable position to get a decent deal. While there is undoubtedly a temptation to punish us 'pour encourager les autres', the EU is as vulnerable, if not more so, to continuing economic uncertainty as the UK and there will be significant pressure from soe governments and business to resolve it amicably.
From a Scottish independence perspective, of course, the longer it takes the more time the SNP have to get a deal in place to offer to the Scottish people to remain in the EU before Brexit happens rather than reapplying having left. The interesting question is how interested Brussels and other EU governments will be in facilitating that while trying simultaneously to negotiate Brexit in a way that doesn't damage the Eurozone economy.
Scotland will just be a bargaining chip for the EU. Why do they want another country with a sizeable bunch of eurosceptics ?
Of more interest will be the SE Tories who want to ditch the place.
Would an independent Scotland be a net contributor to the EU?
I can understand the Remains being upset. They did after all repeat every scare story and attack line in slavish fashion despite the utter absurdity of most of it, over the course of months, only to endure ignominious defeat.
But have ANY of them, NorthWales aside, mentioned accepting the result getting on with it, making Britain a success? Nope. They're either still indulging in bitter recrimination, trying to find some comfort in the economic travails of the UK, or fantasising about constitutional chaos. Its very telling. These are the people that were telling us they were just as patriotic as Leavers and had Britain's interests at heart. I'm sure irl they are lovely people, kind to dogs etc., but politically they're simply repulsive.
But what is especially dangerous is they are not accepting responsibility for the millions who voted Leave out of desperation about a political class that will not listen, or even worse says it is listening and does nothing. While I see there are some writers who get it, most don't seem to accept that it's their hardline Europhilia that and stance on migration that is driving people to the margins.
That our entire political and cultural establishment was so uniformally for Remain should be ringing alarm bells.
Well, I like to think I get it. Remain lost because the policy of unlimited free movement of people cost us remaining in the EU.
Remain lost becasue the people heading it had lost touch with their workforces and their voters.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed "great regret" at the British decision, saying: "This is a blow to Europe and to the European unification process"
That's a brilliant example of "they just don't get it", though, isn't it?
Britain didn't fit into a European unification process. That wasn't what the vast bulk of the British people desired or felt comfortable - or, for those who voted on it back in the 70s, that this was what they'd signed up for. We were in a club where we didn't believe in the core aims of the club - I quite like Mark Mardell's BBC piece on this today - and where our misfitting nature was holding the rest of the EU back from the deeper integration they actually need to make some of the grander aspects of their project workable.
I think it was illiberal and undemocratic that Eurofanatics have, for decades, attempted to remold the national, cultural and political identity of the British populace. Make us all feel like good little Europeans. I actually quite liked the flag, and felt about as attached to it as to the Union Flag, and thought the EU anthem was rather good - an upbeat tune and notably free of nationalistic and nostalgic bombast. I wouldn't mind describing myself as "European" (and even post-Brexit, there's a cultural and geographic truth that I am European). No doubt if I got paid in euros, and watched the budget being announced in Brussels, and got a chance to vote directly for the President, then I'd feel a deeper attachment to the political aspects of the project too. But this is something that millions and millions of ordinary Brits didn't feel comfortable with. And plonking the EU flag on justabout anything which had a flag-like space on it, especially to emphasise the beneficence of Brussels, wasn't going to render it so.
I also think it was illiberal and undemocratic for the Euromoderates to paper over all this stuff and keep yapping away about it all being good for business and it's still at heart a trading club. "One day you'll see, just you wait, that having the euro will be good for your pocket." In many ways this was even more dishonest, and it didn't have the redeeming characteristic of a bold and noble dream at heart. I'm sure the reason the dream was avoided was because they knew the great mass of the British public didn't share in it.
(I'm not a unionist by inclination. I also think it would be terrible for shire England to attempt to dictate to Scottish people what their national identity is and where their nation should fit into the world.)
Westminster needs to get a grip and show some leadership. We need a team in place to sort this out and it needs to happen now.
Conspiracy theory number 1 - they want to delay until October to desperately hope something really vital happens which means they can ask to vote again.
I suspect the same.
But they have (at least) two years in which to do such waiting, even if the article is invoked tomorrow. Two years is a long time in politics, and I suspect the next two years are going to feel particularly long. Even when the terms of exit are known, who is to say that there won't be a campaign for the exit terms to go to another vote, before we leave? There are actually good as well as opportunistic arguments for such a call, not least because no-one ever put before the population any sort of proposal for what Brexit would look like.
If you make the declaration, isn't that it though? You are are inexorably on the way out in 2 years, whatever the state of things at the end aren't you?
I don't actually think it entirely absurd to have a confirmation vote on the terms at the end of the negotiations, but I had thought there'd be no point? It seriously cannot be the case that if Scotland went Indy (probably 65-35 now) that after 2 years of bitter negotiations there'd be a vote which theoretically might be 'F*** it, let's go back to the status quo, no hard feelings'.
Personally I think the chances of an actual EU exit are still not too far from evens
Anyone away of any betting opportunities in that regard? Ties up money for awhile if there is, but still.
People are talking here as if the EU is negotiating from a position of power.
They just lost their second biggest contributor and are carrying two, perhaps more, bankrupt countries. The EU leaders also know that there is growing agitation among the populations on the continent for the EU to change.
I wouldn't be feeling that comfortable if I were running the EU right now. Greece is a major crisis on the horizon.
I just heard a couple of European journalists on R5L and their view was that the EU will talk hard now but reach a deal that's generally OK for everyone. They thought that pragmatism would trump anger - very British really.
The EU mostly seem keen to get it out of the way - that suggests to me that this places us in a reasonable position to get a decent deal. While there is undoubtedly a temptation to punish us 'pour encourager les autres', the EU is as vulnerable, if not more so, to continuing economic uncertainty as the UK and there will be significant pressure from soe governments and business to resolve it amicably.
From a Scottish independence perspective, of course, the longer it takes the more time the SNP have to get a deal in place to offer to the Scottish people to remain in the EU before Brexit happens rather than reapplying having left. The interesting question is how interested Brussels and other EU governments will be in facilitating that while trying simultaneously to negotiate Brexit in a way that doesn't damage the Eurozone economy.
Scotland will just be a bargaining chip for the EU. Why do they want another country with a sizeable bunch of eurosceptics ?
Of more interest will be the SE Tories who want to ditch the place.
The CFP would collapse without Scotland, with 30% of the EUs fishing waters in the Scottish EEZ. While not huge overall, it is very important to Spain. A CFP collapse might bring additional pressure on CAP reform - as I see things, Spain does not appear to benefit much from CAP (it would have a strong competitive advantage in a free Agricultural market) and its advantages in CFP are a sop to keep them happy.
People are talking here as if the EU is negotiating from a position of power.
They just lost their second biggest contributor and are carrying two, perhaps more, bankrupt countries. The EU leaders also know that there is growing agitation among the populations on the continent for the EU to change.
I wouldn't be feeling that comfortable if I were running the EU right now. Greece is a major crisis on the horizon.
I just heard a couple of European journalists on R5L and their view was that the EU will talk hard now but reach a deal that's generally OK for everyone. They thought that pragmatism would trump anger - very British really.
The EU mostly seem keen to get it out of the way - that suggests to me that this places us in a reasonable position to get a decent deal. While there is undoubtedly a temptation to punish us 'pour encourager les autres', the EU is as vulnerable, if not more so, to continuing economic uncertainty as the UK and there will be significant pressure from soe governments and business to resolve it amicably.
From a Scottish independence perspective, of course, the longer it takes the more time the SNP have to get a deal in place to offer to the Scottish people to remain in the EU before Brexit happens rather than reapplying having left. The interesting question is how interested Brussels and other EU governments will be in facilitating that while trying simultaneously to negotiate Brexit in a way that doesn't damage the Eurozone economy.
Scotland will just be a bargaining chip for the EU. Why do they want another country with a sizeable bunch of eurosceptics ?
Of more interest will be the SE Tories who want to ditch the place.
That's my thought, though I may well be reading it wrong. Sturgeon seems far too complacent that, though Scotland might want the EU, the EU will definitely want Scotland. I think they'd accept Scotland but on their terms not on the current terms of membership. Does Sturgeon need to have a definite deal to offer the Scottish people before the vote. What do Scottish posters think? Is a blind commitment to rejoining/staying in the EU no matter what the terms sufficient or would it be just more uncertainty?
I see the Labour "moderates" are still throwing their toys out of the pram.
I'm still yet to hear why, in the aftermath of the country voting to leave the EU, it's a good idea to go for a more Euro-enthusiast leader.
Because the result was close? Because many of the people who voted to leave will have changed their minds in a year or two thanks to the uncertainty and crap things happening.
Again, do you really think it's a good idea for Labour to base its strategy on "uniting Remain voters"?
Outside of London, some of Remain's strongest areas were in Berkshire, Surrey and Oxfordshire. These are not people even SLIGHTLY left-inclined, even Blair wasn't centrist enough for them - they are all very wealthy people who were concerned about protecting their incomes from economic turmoil. They are not voting Labour no matter what.
This idea of Labour being the "party of Remain" really is a recipe for Scottish Labour on steroids.
The opportunity for the LibDems is that, in England, they are the only potential 'party of Remain' with the ability (more theoretical than actual right now) to appeal to the type of areas that lean to remain (a striking number of which have had LibDem MPs or Councillors in the past). I understand some LibDem referendum campaigners report getting a surprisingly warm welcome from what they would call soft Tory voters, and it is hard to see such voters looking at their own party right now with anything other than concern. As Parris says in the Times, the Tories have to own the Euref result now.
Agreed on Lib Dems, could be a big opportunity for them, tough they'll need to think how they accommodate themselves to a post-Brexit world as rejoining won't be much of an option I'd have thought. They'd be in an even better potential position if Farron weren't such a drip. Maybe I'm being too harsh on him, he's clearly an excellent local campaigner, but he may find it hard to cut through nationally in the way that Ashdown, Kennedy and Clegg (for a bit) did.
Not sure it'll be such a great campaign line by the time we get near a general election!!
As you say, campaigning to rejoin the EU is hardly going to be a vote-winner - particularly if we have to join the euro and so on. And especially if the EU continues in its current sorry state, unable to grapple with major problems. (If they finally get themselves sorted out, it's most likely going to be via tighter integration which will make rejoining even less attractive.)
And by the time the Brexit negotiations are complete, we'll know whether we are going to be in EEA or not. So what is there going to be for the Lib Dems to fight for?
Tories seem to have vanished in Scotland, Ruthie posted missing, wonder why.
Kezia also got off the blocks early with a 'No to Indyref2' statement, now a bit quiet as Tory and Labour columnists and political figures start converting.
Typical Labour , a mile behind the curve. She really is a donkey, Davidson at least hides and holds her wheest to see how the wind blows, Deputy Dog just puts her neck on the chopping block.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
And with regard to Britain as a whole, personally I find it amazing that not only did England back Brexit, but so did Wales, and flipping Northern Ireland, which was being spoken of in the same terms as Gibraltar, was 44% Leave!
As for Scotland, if anything, it was Leave that was a proxy for Indy - only the profound Leavers I know have been supportive of my Brexit facebook posts. The Remainers sure wanted to stay in the EU, and most of them in the UK too. Scots are not stupid. People here are leaping to the conclusion that they will vote for penury in a fit of Brussels inspired rage. No.
I wish I could believe that. It looks like lingering affection for the Union has dipped even further with the end of the EU connection, and no longer is enough, and plenty didn't care about the economic consequences before and now even fewer do.
People are talking here as if the EU is negotiating from a position of power.
They just lost their second biggest contributor and are carrying two, perhaps more, bankrupt countries. The EU leaders also know that there is growing agitation among the populations on the continent for the EU to change.
I wouldn't be feeling that comfortable if I were running the EU right now. Greece is a major crisis on the horizon.
I just heard a couple of European journalists on R5L and their view was that the EU will talk hard now but reach a deal that's generally OK for everyone. .
They thought that before and were wrong. In cases like these, I bet on people acting in what might be thought irrational fashion, particularly when there are so many parties involved with nominally aligned interests but who have their own domestic pressures to focus on.
There was never any affection for the UK, apart from a tiny minority of aristo types and country folk imo. And they will stay affectionate. It's a loveless marriage of convenience, and will always be so until the UK is seen to be going places, and Scotland with it. That's a tall order now, but it was an impossible order mired in the EU and with Camborne in place.
Agreed - top article, very informative, thanks for sharing. Interesting how the Leave campaign were looking at the responses of potential Leave voters and sticking the "right kind of politician" in front of a camera at the right times. (Think they did a good job with Gisela and that closing speech by Boris must have won a few folk over. All pre-calculated.)
Sturgeon is going to go for it. These are amazing times. The UK is coming to an end.
Big mistake. She'll destroy her party.
It will be destroyed if she doesn't go for it.
She could have continued the con for a few more years, now the emptiness of SNP " independence " agenda will be made apparent to the people.
Poor old Monica really showing how little you know.
We'll see.
We shall indeed, I am sure she will go for it.
I think she'll just gon for more powers. Scotland already has it's power over fisheries and farming coming back to it from Brussels at some point. That can be added to.
Scotland will not get fisheries and Framing , that will be under Westminster control. In UK there are no powers , Westminster decide what is and is not done.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
Not necessarily. It wouldn't be a choice between the deal and the EU. It would be between outside the EU with the deal and outside the EU without the deal. And any vote won't just be among Leave supporters (who aren't any where near unanimous on immigration). Remainers get a vote too!
He had the financial services brief, didn't he? Immediately we lose influence in a key area for us.
He was only a sub commissioner working under the internal markets commissioner from Poland. He had no real power.
Sums up how the EU treated us, top 3 3 contributer and they give us a 3rd tier job. No wonder that "single market in financial services" was making such slowwww progrezzzzz.
Westminster needs to get a grip and show some leadership. We need a team in place to sort this out and it needs to happen now.
Conspiracy theory number 1 - they want to delay until October to desperately hope something really vital happens which means they can ask to vote again.
I suspect the same.
But they have (at least) two years in which to do such waiting, even if the article is invoked tomorrow. Two years is a long time in politics, and I suspect the next two years are going to feel particularly long. Even when the terms of exit are known, who is to say that there won't be a campaign for the exit terms to go to another vote, before we leave? There are actually good as well as opportunistic arguments for such a call, not least because no-one ever put before the population any sort of proposal for what Brexit would look like.
If you make the declaration, isn't that it though? You are are inexorably on the way out in 2 years, whatever the state of things at the end aren't you?
I don't actually think it entirely absurd to have a confirmation vote on the terms at the end of the negotiations, but I had thought there'd be no point? It seriously cannot be the case that if Scotland went Indy (probably 65-35 now) that after 2 years of bitter negotiations there'd be a vote which theoretically might be 'F*** it, let's go back to the status quo, no hard feelings'.
Personally I think the chances of an actual EU exit are still not too far from evens
Anyone away of any betting opportunities in that regard? Ties up money for awhile if there is, but still.
There must be, as I remember at the start of the campaign OGH said he has an old bet on whether UK would leave the EU by 2020 (I think, it might have been earlier, can't recall). I said at the time that even a Leave vote doesn't necessarily mean his winnings are in the bank...
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
It's going to be a nervous time. We have to be hopeful, but it was always going to be a risk. I'm not looking forward to tearfully admitting I was a fool in a year if things go really badly, so I hope as a nation we prove up to this.
Considering only 147 MP's supported Brexit, we now have a government that thinks we should be led by a completely different government altogether, many against the wishes of their own constituents. Should there be an election soon and I suspect there may be, we all know what to do, eh? They're on the wrong side of history I believe is the term.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
Personally, after Independence, I would vote No on joining the EU under new member terms. If it was on a transfer of the UK deal, I might consider Yes but would probably still vote No.
I can understand the Remains being upset. They did after all repeat every scare story and attack line in slavish fashion despite the utter absurdity of most of it, over the course of months, only to endure ignominious defeat.
But have ANY of them, NorthWales aside, mentioned accepting the result getting on with it, making Britain a success? Nope. They're either still indulging in bitter recrimination, trying to find some comfort in the economic travails of the UK, or fantasising about constitutional chaos. Its very telling. These are the people that were telling us they were just as patriotic as Leavers and had Britain's interests at heart. I'm sure irl they are lovely people, kind to dogs etc., but politically they're simply repulsive.
But what is especially dangerous is they are not accepting responsibility for the millions who voted Leave out of desperation about a political class that will not listen, or even worse says it is listening and does nothing. While I see there are some writers who get it, most don't seem to accept that it's their hardline Europhilia that and stance on migration that is driving people to the margins.
That our entire political and cultural establishment was so uniformally for Remain should be ringing alarm bells.
Cultural perhaps, but not political - did you miss the hundreds of MPs who were for leave, they were establishment too.
Hundreds, plural? And many of the tory eurosceptics have no problem with free movement.
Sturgeon is going to go for it. These are amazing times. The UK is coming to an end.
Big mistake. She'll destroy her party.
There's a lot of emotion going around right now, but you really think she'd lose?!
Sturgeon and co presumably don't care if the party is destroyed in the years after an exit (though they also presumably don't think that will happen), they will have gotten what they want and it'd be too late to change. As those wishing for a second referendum will find out, or any party trying to rejoin after we Leave, even if things go to crap, it will be very hard to get back in.
Nicola's reaction to the UK EUref result reminds me of some of the more hard-line Unionists' reaction to NI's Good Friday Agreement result back in 1998.
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
People are talking here as if the EU is negotiating from a position of power.
They just lost their second biggest contributor and are carrying two, perhaps more, bankrupt countries. The EU leaders also know that there is growing agitation among the populations on the continent for the EU to change.
I wouldn't be feeling that comfortable if I were running the EU right now. Greece is a major crisis on the horizon.
I just heard a couple of European journalists on R5L and their view was that the EU will talk hard now but reach a deal that's generally OK for everyone. They thought that pragmatism would trump anger - very British really.
The EU mostly seem keen to get it out of the way - that suggests to me that this places us in a reasonable position to get a deceating that while trying simultaneously to negotiate Brexit in a way that doesn't damage the Eurozone economy.
Scotland will just be a bargaining chip for the EU. Why do they want another country with a sizeable bunch of eurosceptics ?
Of more interest will be the SE Tories who want to ditch the place.
The CFP would collapse without Scotland, with 30% of the EUs fishing waters in the Scottish EEZ. While not huge overall, it is very important to Spain. A CFP collapse might bring additional pressure on CAP reform - as I see things, Spain does not appear to benefit much from CAP (it would have a strong competitive advantage in a free Agricultural market) and its advantages in CFP are a sop to keep them happy.
Hows keeping the CFP in place beneficial to Scotland ? There is no chance of CAP reform unless France agrees it and with the UK gone where's the pressure ?
Sturgeon is going to go for it. These are amazing times. The UK is coming to an end.
Big mistake. She'll destroy her party.
It will be destroyed if she doesn't go for it.
She could have continued the con for a few more years, now the emptiness of SNP " independence " agenda will be made apparent to the people.
Poor old Monica really showing how little you know.
We'll see.
We shall indeed, I am sure she will go for it.
I think she'll just gon for more powers. Scotland already has it's power over fisheries and farming coming back to it from Brussels at some point. That can be added to.
Scotland will not get fisheries and Framing , that will be under Westminster control. In UK there are no powers , Westminster decide what is and is not done.
It was a pledge of Vote Leave, and though 'Vote Leave' won't be in Government, I really can't see how any PM would be silly enough to restore them only to keep them for Westminster.
Just heard from a friend who manages a site of national heritage. He's very depressed because it relies heavily on EU grants to make it a viable concern. Of course, no one pretends it could ever fund itself: it's just one of those things that is nice to have and which the country would be a little poorer without. I told him to stop being silly and that the UK government would redress the balance because it said so on the side of that bus. Let's just say he sounded unconvinced.
The government to me seems in paralysis. No leadership, no plan, no vision. God knows where that puts us.
A bomb has gone on under the political elite... Other than Nicola (I do admire her I must admit) they are all just standing around dazed and bewildered examining the wreckage.
Things will begin to "get going" again on Monday starting with Osborne's sacking/resignation and a new Chancellor being put in place.
Sturgeon is going to go for it. These are amazing times. The UK is coming to an end.
Big mistake. She'll destroy her party.
It will be destroyed if she doesn't go for it.
She could have continued the con for a few more years, now the emptiness of SNP " independence " agenda will be made apparent to the people.
Poor old Monica really showing how little you know.
We'll see.
We shall indeed, I am sure she will go for it.
Will you be voting for back to Brussels after your decent and honoured Leave stance ?
For sure
Hahah oh Malc. Silly turnip.
Malc wanted to stick it to the Posh Boys, so it makes sense that he'd want an independent Scotland to be part of the EU (and maybe the Euro?)
Sadly he won't get his wish. I'm sure he has ample other sources of joy in his life though.
Lucky , for sure , it would be very nice indeed but life will be rosy even if not. I bid you good day been interesting but a few chores to do and then beer time.
Westminster needs to get a grip and show some leadership. We need a team in place to sort this out and it needs to happen now.
I think it's shameful Cameron, Osborne, May etc have all gone to ground.
Before the vote, Leavers on here were saying that post-Brexit a period of cool reflection was required. When I pointed out this wasn't a yoga class I was firmly informed that nothing good comes of rushing things. I'm of that mind too now I must say. Let's put our feet up, have a cup of tea. It'll all turn out right in the end...
Agreed. Feet are up, tea brewing.
If I replaced Nick as my MP and were minister for Brexit, the first thing I would do is extend the trade team and quietly send it negotiating around the world. With a view to Sindyref 2, I would pick markets are a priority that would suit Scotland (as well as the rest of the UK) so places to sell tweed, smoked fish and whiskey.
Then when the new PM turns up and invokes article 50 I would at least have found a useful deck of cards.
The CFP would collapse without Scotland, with 30% of the EUs fishing waters in the Scottish EEZ. While not huge overall, it is very important to Spain. A CFP collapse might bring additional pressure on CAP reform - as I see things, Spain does not appear to benefit much from CAP (it would have a strong competitive advantage in a free Agricultural market) and its advantages in CFP are a sop to keep them happy.
Hows keeping the CFP in place beneficial to Scotland ? There is no chance of CAP reform unless France agrees it and with the UK gone where's the pressure ?
I don't know if I can answer all those questions. My impression is that Scotland would cut a deal on CFP but it would not be anywhere nearly as bad as the way the UK government threw the industry under the bus. There is likely to be some value to the EU in getting a reduced deal over access to Scotland's EEZ than no deal at all.
I see the myth being pushed already...its oldies and their gold plated pensions and secure jobs. What about all those left behind, the poor, etc etc etc, all those Labour heartland working class Northern towns, they were on masse down the polling station like never before to vote out.
But then that would result in asking some difficult questions wouldn't it. Much easier to blame oldies.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed "great regret" at the British decision, saying: "This is a blow to Europe and to the European unification process"
That's a brilliant example of "they just don't get it", though, isn't it?
Britain didn't fit into a European unification process. That wasn't what the vast bulk of the British people desired or felt comfortable - or, for those who voted on it back in the 70s, that this was what they'd signed up for. We were in a club where we didn't believe in the core aims of the club - I quite like Mark Mardell's BBC piece on this today - and where our misfitting nature was holding the rest of the EU back from the deeper integration they actually need to make some of the grander aspects of their project workable.
I think it was illiberal and undemocratic that Eurofanatics have, for decades, attempted to remold the national, cultural and political identity of the British populace. Make us all feel like good little Europeans. I actually quite liked the flag, and felt about as attached to it as to the Union Flag, and thought the EU anthem was rather good - an upbeat tune and notably free of nationalistic and nostalgic bombast. I wouldn't mind describing myself as "European" (and even post-Brexit, there's a cultural and geographic truth that I am European). No doubt if I got paid in euros, and watched the budget being announced in Brussels, and got a chance to vote directly for the President, then I'd feel a deeper attachment to the political aspects of the project too. But this is something that millions and millions of ordinary Brits didn't feel comfortable with. And plonking the EU flag on justabout anything which had a flag-like space on it, especially to emphasise the beneficence of Brussels, wasn't going to render it so.
I also think it was illiberal and undemocratic for the Euromoderates to paper over all this stuff and keep yapping away about it all being good for business and it's still at heart a trading club. "One day you'll see, just you wait, that having the euro will be good for your pocket." In many ways this was even more dishonest, and it didn't have the redeeming characteristic of a bold and noble dream at heart. I'm sure the reason the dream was avoided was because they knew the great mass of the British public didn't share in it.
(I'm not a unionist by inclination. I also think it would be terrible for shire England to attempt to dictate to Scottish people what their national identity is and where their nation should fit into the world.)
I've never felt *European* myself, but understand why some would. Couldn't agree more with the rest of your observations - it's often the smallest things that irk. Why do I have an EU flag on my driving licence?
I'm feeling hugely optimistic today - the widely billed apocalypse failed to materialise yesterday, there are all kinds of interesting scenarios ahead in the negotiations (and the future of the EU) and domestic politics and for the future.
As a country we have lost our way. People don't know what we stand for any more, people are selfish and introverted, our economy had ground to a halt with no thought beyond the immediate future.
Suddenly we are looking at ourselves and our society and talking about the good and the bad and asking the big questions. We are being forced to think about the medium and long term and what decisions we need to make now. The political and economic establishment has been routed and doesn't know what to do with itself.
Democracy is Revolution. We should be rejoicing. I know I am.
The government to me seems in paralysis. No leadership, no plan, no vision. God knows where that puts us.
A bomb has gone on under the political elite... Other than Nicola (I do admire her I must admit) they are all just standing around dazed and bewildered examining the wreckage.
Things will begin to "get going" again on Monday starting with Osborne's sacking/resignation and a new Chancellor being put in place.
But will that happen? No reshuffle has been mentioned in this interregnum period. I don't think there will be one. Though I also don't think we'll get Osborne's terror budget.
' Immigration to the UK could increase by more than 10% as a result of EU enlargement, according to research commissioned by the Home Office.
A report indicated that up to 13,000 extra economic migrants could come to Britain each year as a direct result of 10 new countries joining the organisation.
The Conservatives have expressed fears that expanding the EU would result in large numbers of people from the former Communist countries looking for a more prosperous future in countries like the UK.
But Home Office Minister Beverley Hughes told MPs: "The number coming here for employment will be minimal." '
Just heard from a friend who manages a site of national heritage. He's very depressed because it relies heavily on EU grants to make it a viable concern. Of course, no one pretends it could ever fund itself: it's just one of those things that is nice to have and which the country would be a little poorer without. I told him to stop being silly and that the UK government would redress the balance because it said so on the side of that bus. Let's just say he sounded unconvinced.
There will be winners and losers from grants, but then there always is, if the grants comes from parish council or the EU. But like tax credits, they are taking your money, and then giving some of it back.
I failed to on both, for once refusing to bet against 'my' team.... could have banked 700 at midnight but went to sleep at 1am rather than watch the disaster unfold further...
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
Nicola's reaction to the UK EUref result reminds me of some of the more hard-line Unionists' reaction to NI's Good Friday Agreement result back in 1998.
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
The Scots have been put on an unalterable trajectory they voted heavily against. The Scottish government has every right to do all it can to protect Scottish interests. If an independence referendum is the best way to do that, so be it. Those who oppose separation can make their case.
The government to me seems in paralysis. No leadership, no plan, no vision. God knows where that puts us.
A bomb has gone on under the political elite... Other than Nicola (I do admire her I must admit) they are all just standing around dazed and bewildered examining the wreckage.
Things will begin to "get going" again on Monday starting with Osborne's sacking/resignation and a new Chancellor being put in place.
But will that happen? No reshuffle has been mentioned in this interregnum period. I don't think there will be one.
The difficulty is Cameron has very little authority to put people he wants in places, but no one else has authority to demand certain people go in certain jobs, it's paralysis. But even many Remainers thought Osborne would have to be moved afterwards, now with Leave he will be sacked - replaced with a Leaver, the rest can probably stay in place, that one significant change enough to see things through.
Comments
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3657852/What-doesn-t-kill-makes-stronger-European-Council-leader-Donald-Tusk-leads-stunned-continent-s-reaction-politicians-media-declare-bad-day-Europe.html
I don't actually think it entirely absurd to have a confirmation vote on the terms at the end of the negotiations, but I had thought there'd be no point? It seriously cannot be the case that if Scotland went Indy (probably 65-35 now) that after 2 years of bitter negotiations there'd be a vote which theoretically might be 'F*** it, let's go back to the status quo, no hard feelings'.
From a Scottish independence perspective, of course, the longer it takes the more time the SNP have to get a deal in place to offer to the Scottish people to remain in the EU before Brexit happens rather than reapplying having left. The interesting question is how interested Brussels and other EU governments will be in facilitating that while trying simultaneously to negotiate Brexit in a way that doesn't damage the Eurozone economy.
There was also a report that, unlike Cameron, is not intending running away and will continue to do his job and to provide stability until he is removed.
Of more interest will be the SE Tories who want to ditch the place.
Both campaigns were appalling. Predominantly negative with no vision for the future, respect for the electorate, or even much regard for such facts as were available. So here we are: half-in, half-out, and no idea what to do next.
Anyway -
"You Brexit, you Fixit"
It has to be a leaver as conservative leader, no remainer could withstand the contradictions in the job.
Also, with the law of unintended consequences, it is inevitable that the UK is now over, it's gone. All of that history and success of recent centuries and it took a vote to do it. A vote that some probably hadn't even registered as being a vote on the UK.
Scotland, definitely gone, Northern Ireland I do think will come to some agreement with Scotland and the EU. Not convinced of a united Ireland though. What's the Andorra situation? Smaller I know, but they have joint French and Spanish heads of state don't they?
London? This is potentially the most interesting. Many fellow northerners hate London, seeing it is a different country which takes all the money and such (yes,I know, but rational thought has not been the driver here). Well, why not?
"Does that mean the UK stays in the EU indefinitely?"
The EU wants us gone so we don't infect the others.
"There's a man at the door with bubonic plague, and he's asking for money."
"Give him anything, just get rid of him."
We're in no hurry, but they are.
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/746673128340885504
Yesterday all my troubles seemed so far away.
Now it looks as though they're here to stay.
Oh, I believe in yesterday.
Suddenly I'm not half the man I used to be.
There's a shadow hanging over me.
Oh, yesterday came suddenly.
Why she had to go, I don't know, she wouldn't say.
I said something wrong, now I long for yesterday.
Yesterday love was such an easy game to play.
Now I need a place to hide away.
Oh, I believe in yesterday.
Why she had to go, I don't know, she wouldn't say.
I said something wrong, now I long for yesterday.
Yesterday love was such an easy game to play.
Now I need a place to hide away.
Oh, I believe in yesterday.
Mm mm mm mm mm mm mm
Personally I think the chances of an actual EU exit are still not too far from evens - not because I think there will be a huge conspiracy, but because a scenario where two years' of uncertainty (at best) and a shedload of broken promises will deliver an environment where PM Boris surpasses Thatcher during the depths of her unpopularity. In such circumstances the clamour for a yes/no say on the exit terms might become irresistible, particularly if managed to unite the establishment with a lot of discontented voters.
In elections it is disguised by large rural constituencies piling up tory votes making the tory vote inefficient
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
Tim's a God-botherer like me, and now his lips have been forcibly unglued from the EU's bum cheeks, I could be coming back.
Strange times indeed.
As you say, campaigning to rejoin the EU is hardly going to be a vote-winner - particularly if we have to join the euro and so on. And especially if the EU continues in its current sorry state, unable to grapple with major problems. (If they finally get themselves sorted out, it's most likely going to be via tighter integration which will make rejoining even less attractive.)
And by the time the Brexit negotiations are complete, we'll know whether we are going to be in EEA or not. So what is there going to be for the Lib Dems to fight for?
That is possibly my fave typo of all typo. Kudos.
Should there be an election soon and I suspect there may be, we all know what to do, eh?
They're on the wrong side of history I believe is the term.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35616946
And just 10 Labour MPs...
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
http://ec.europa.eu/commission/2014-2019/hill_en
Things will begin to "get going" again on Monday starting with Osborne's sacking/resignation and a new Chancellor being put in place.
http://ec.europa.eu/commission/2014-2019/hill/announcements/statement-lord-hill-25062016_en
"Deputy Dog just puts her neck on the chopping block."
Brillliant, but shouldn't that be Deputy Dawg?
If I replaced Nick as my MP and were minister for Brexit, the first thing I would do is extend the trade team and quietly send it negotiating around the world. With a view to Sindyref 2, I would pick markets are a priority that would suit Scotland (as well as the rest of the UK) so places to sell tweed, smoked fish and whiskey.
Then when the new PM turns up and invokes article 50 I would at least have found a useful deck of cards.
I see the myth being pushed already...its oldies and their gold plated pensions and secure jobs. What about all those left behind, the poor, etc etc etc, all those Labour heartland working class Northern towns, they were on masse down the polling station like never before to vote out.
But then that would result in asking some difficult questions wouldn't it. Much easier to blame oldies.
observations - it's often the smallest things that irk. Why do I have an EU flag on my driving licence?
As a country we have lost our way. People don't know what we stand for any more, people are selfish and introverted, our economy had ground to a halt with no thought beyond the immediate future.
Suddenly we are looking at ourselves and our society and talking about the good and the bad and asking the big questions. We are being forced to think about the medium and long term and what decisions we need to make now. The political and economic establishment has been routed and doesn't know what to do with itself.
Democracy is Revolution. We should be rejoicing. I know I am.
' Immigration to the UK could increase by more than 10% as a result of EU enlargement, according to research commissioned by the Home Office.
A report indicated that up to 13,000 extra economic migrants could come to Britain each year as a direct result of 10 new countries joining the organisation.
The Conservatives have expressed fears that expanding the EU would result in large numbers of people from the former Communist countries looking for a more prosperous future in countries like the UK.
But Home Office Minister Beverley Hughes told MPs: "The number coming here for employment will be minimal." '
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2967318.stm
June 2016 the consequences are in full bloom.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
Good day.