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YouGov on the day survey (NOT an exit poll) being published on Sky News at 10pm
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http://www.stockopedia.com/content/brexit-how-the-principle-of-an-eea-norway-type-deal-could-be-agreed-by-the-end-of-the-year-138488/
ThomasNashe said:
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Yep, I support the Union - but you really can't argue against any of that.
I said:
Oh yes you can. Scotland is far, far further away from being a viable country that it was at the time of Sindy. If we went independent we would need to cut public spending by at least 10%, almost certainly more. Our economy is absolutely dependent upon having a single market with rUK. When the UK was in the EU this was guaranteed. That is no longer the case. Even Nicola is saying we need to wait and see what the outcome of the EU/UK discussions are. Leaving to remain in the EU when rUK was out and not a part of the single market would be totally and utterly insane.
Would you point out the donate button please - I have a contribution to make.
It was a VERY profitable night.
I'd love to know who was still laying Leave after midnight.
One of the greatest nights of my life.
Enjoying the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the sore losers even more.
And my four-figure betting profits. Sold sterling at 1.50 and bought it back at 1.34. Nice.
I am hoping calm prevails. A UK with a PITA Scottish government constantly whinging seems an appealing prospect provided we are both in the tent looking to make it a bigger and better tent.
Again, if that is the case, she also is now clearly thinking purely of the Scottish national interest, not party interest which is what she has been elected to do. She may come to a conclusion I do not like at some point but all respect fro taking that line.
Watch again now on BBC Parliament channel - at 23.39 now
Was never about immigration for me.
We are very poorly served by our media. I don't think Gove is completely right about experts but the discussion on here was once again on such a different level it was like we were watching a different event.
Who thought that, why did they think it and how much money did they lose because of it ?
That seemed to cheer up the counters as well. Well, at least 48% of them!
I thought Scotland was on the way out anyway, but I'm sad my vote has made it happen even more quickly as a result. Nicola's 'wait and see' is clearly just a ploy to allow picking the optimal moment to call for an exit.
And there have to be very serious questions asked about the behaviour of the pollsters. One in particular.
Does Andrew Cooper still lurk around here? He must be feeling great.
But it never really looked enough to offset the North, the Midlands and the Shires...
If it is just the same, then I'll be sharpening the pitch forks.
I'd held back from this market all campaign, as it just seemed the fundamentals were not in line with the polling and while there was a profit on backing Leave it wasn't really enough given the risk. On the day however, the price was available at up to 8s which I stuck £50 on.
The real profit chance came after 10pm when it was starting to look like the markets really believed polls which were just nonsense, especially as reports started coming in about postal votes in Sunderland and the overall vote in Sunderland when compared with hte par figures people had worked out. I put on some more moderate bets at good odds during that time.
But amazingly even after Sunderland had declared and credible reports were coming in from round the country, I was still able to put another £200 on at 4/1 at 1.13am. That was ridiculous and quite remarkable poor performance by the bookies.
My only potential regret was not getting on a second Independence referendum by 2020 at 5/1 which was still on offer by Ladbrokes at 4am.
https://twitter.com/METAKNlGHT/status/746654272922750976
Now, if the referendum vote is just ignored, that will certainly be the case. But if there was a second referendum which produced a different result, or a party advocating ignoring the referendum result won a majority in a snap General Election, it would not in opposition to the democratic will. If anything the democratic will would clearly be very confused about what it wanted, so what the hell would you do?
But there need not be a worry. Who would stand in a GE advocating ignoring the result? The Tories won't, Labour dare not, so the LDs maybe and the SNP. Even assuming some people with buyer's remorse, I don't think Leave need to worry about the LDs sweeping to a majority or coalition with the SNP. And as for a second referendum, well, it's possible it might lose, but no guarantee it would, and short of a brand new offer from Europe they've promised is not coming, there's no grounds to rerun, as all those who mocked the idea the SNP could call for a new referendum on the back of good opinion polls would agree polls asking for a rerun would be similarly not grounds. Not to mention in a second referendum were lost, you'd get a million people signing a petition for a third one.
So it will be interesting to see how many MPs at the forthcoming parliamentary debate bother to come along, and how many actually decide to argue against it, or whether it will all just be remainers saying how angry they are at the result.
I suspect that many people don't have an understanding of how populous non-metropolitan England is.
As always its the medium sized towns in England which were decisive.
My share portfolio has done OK as well as I have significant holdings in Astrazeneca and GSK which are $ denominated and actually went up yesterday. So personally I've done well out of this and I'm well insulated from the damage that is coming.
But I really grieve for the losers - particularly the young, whose futures have been blighted by the elderly and the ignorant.
https://twitter.com/BBCDouglasF/status/746657038202175490
"...the UK should, unlike Norway, seek to remain outside the European Economic Area (EEA). The position sought should be somewhere between that of Turkey’s and Switzerland’s: membership of EFTA but not of the European Economic Area (EEA) and without application of significant portions of EU law."
http://www.iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-iea-brexit-prize-a-blueprint-for-britain-openness-not-isolation
During the referendum campaign I seem to recall Ms Leadsom saying the UK would/should pursue a UK specific free trade agreement with EU, rather than copying another country's deal.
Genius.
"Newcastle 10% more leave than Hanretty.
Outside the 90% CI
!"
then, moments later
"Polling Disaster Alert..."
For myself, I've consistent that my concern is democracy and sovereignty and I'm "intensely relaxed" about immigration.
Others take a different view and that's fine.
Thank you Andy
Dr Liam Fox MP: "A lot of things were said in advance of this referendum that we might want to think about again and that [invoking article 50] is one of them". No BREXIT so. LOL
Ian Paisley MP: "if you are entitled to second passport then take one. I sign off lots of applications for constituents". That's everyone in Northern Ireland so. LOL
I am going to call it: Tories think they can destroy Labour by betraying the anti-immigrant vote and pumping up Ukip in the North.
Con 42/58
Lab 63/37
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-thursday-and-why.html
To take back control.
When do we want it?
Err..
I'm still ecstatic.
Perhaps not "first full day as a free man" type ecstasy that some Brexiteers might feel, but one of huge relief that the greatest historical, politics and geostrategic tension of my lifetime has been resolved decisively.
The EU will be thrilled.
A: er they think so.... Maybe something to do with originating 60% of our laws .
(Oh TC don't start that again!)
They actually should call Cameron's bluff, make him an extremely good offer and see what happens.
The EU Parliament has never been more than window dressing.
Sturgeon and co presumably don't care if the party is destroyed in the years after an exit (though they also presumably don't think that will happen), they will have gotten what they want and it'd be too late to change. As those wishing for a second referendum will find out, or any party trying to rejoin after we Leave, even if things go to crap, it will be very hard to get back in.
I'm still yet to hear why, in the aftermath of the country voting to leave the EU, it's a good idea to go for a more Euro-enthusiast leader.
What we know it isn't, is the £15bn nonsense figure from the likes of Kevin Hague which consider that all costs currently borne by Scotland would exist for an independent Scotland. It would also matter what government Scotland voted for.
The reality is that it would likely be between £4bn and £10bn. The EU cap of 3.5% would require a max deficit of roughly £9bn so it is both achievable for Scotland and would not require tax rises or spending cuts.
All these figures are with current negligible oil revenues.
How does a "state" that receives from us each year £10bn of aid and where we spend £100bn per year in their "shops" think they can tell us what to do?
Corbyn is not up to it. In his own words, his Remain campaign was his best effort.
French President Francois Hollande said the vote "seriously puts Europe to the test" but called for the EU to push on with reform and investment
Italian PM Matteo Renzi, who will meet Mr Hollande on Saturday, said: "Europe is our house," adding that "the house needs to be renovated, perhaps freshened up"
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the decision showed the UK's unhappiness with migration and security
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras said the vote was "either a wake-up call or the beginning of a dangerous path", adding: "We urgently need a new vision and beginning for a united Europe"
Other leaders, including Polish President Andrzej Duda, said it was crucial that work be done to prevent other countries leaving the EU.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said it was inevitable more countries would leave the EU soon if it did not change its path.
https://twitter.com/adamramsay/status/746600746439872517
Outside of London, some of Remain's strongest areas were in Berkshire, Surrey and Oxfordshire. These are not people even SLIGHTLY left-inclined, even Blair wasn't centrist enough for them - they are all very wealthy people who were concerned about protecting their incomes from economic turmoil. They are not voting Labour no matter what.
This idea of Labour being the "party of Remain" really is a recipe for Scottish Labour on steroids.
But seriously, there's no way for them to force the government to make the article 50 declaration, as I understand it, so what other pressure will they bring to bear to try to get us to do so more quickly? It's a dick move to keep them waiting, but we need time to organise. But they will be desperate not to make any sort of offers of what a post-brexit settlement would look like in advance, as it would reveal their hand.
So it's an impasse. We aren't ready to make the declaration, they aren't prepared to act until we do (the other fear being they make too good an offer and, against all expectation, we don't declare if we can get some of that and remain in - us staying in would be even worse for them at this stage, unless it's a capitulation, since it would open the door for every country to vote out and then see what they can get).
Also, consider that the Nats entered politics to secure independence, and it has been a long struggle culminating in their recent successes. Is it possible to imagine a better alignment of the planets for independence ever coming round than they now have - power in Scotland, political goodwill, almost no opposition (OK Davidson on the flanks, but Tories are still toxic to most of Scotland so that's the opposition you want ), and a great cause celebre to win round the floaters? If not now, then when?
That's quite a good line.
He is incapable of leadership and members should be demanding he stand down so they can choose someone else. Their tolerance of his abject uselessness is an unforgiveable betrayal of Labour's working class voters.
Also SLab are making very pro-Indy sounds, senior figures appear to have an acceptance of Independence, some even sound like they will actively back it.
The stars are aligned.
I think Cameron will say next week to the other leaders-we are having an election-new leader in place after the summer hols-we can all meet up then.
Realistically they have the Spanish elections tomorrow and the Greek debt crisis to sort out.
+the French have some domestic housekeeping issues to resolve so I think they can all live with a September start date.
According to the BBC, the EU6 recommend that we commence discussions, which is, of course, perfectly possible without serving Article 50.
As I said yesterday, atleast Corbyn offers working-class voters economic policies to appeal to them, and is a symbolic chance to "kick the Establishment". On the other hand, the Blairites would offer the same key planks as the Remain Campaign -- defending the economic status quo, mass immigration, cultural liberalism, presented by career politicians. We saw how that goes down in the Labour heartlands on Thursday.