How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
The vote was once in a generation - the referendum was announced in 2013 before their 2014 vote. They knew this could happen when they voted to stay.
You're in denial about the new reality created by the Brexit vote.
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Remind me what position he holds with the Government?
That's the worst thing about Brexit. Forgot the economic ruin and the damage to the lives of millions, we're going to have to deal with French smugness about our mistake.
There has ever been a time the French haven't been smug?
It would be the first time since The Battle of Bouvines that the French can be justifiably smug
***** BETTING POST ***** England duly completed their 3 - 0 whitewash series win over Australia this afternoon, a truly remarkable and historic achievement and the first time this has happened in my lifetime.
It's not yet possible to back England for the SPOTY team award and anyway as and when this market opens, they are bound to be the short odd-on favourites, with the Wales Euro football side representing their only real competition thus far.
Today's result was much tighter with the Lillywhites winning by 44 points vs 40 points. Of those 44 points, Owen Farrell was responsible for 22 points, i.e. 2 conversions and 6 penalties, without him, therefore, England clearly wouldn't have made it ...... he was today's hero for sure!
Both Ladbrokes and Corals have him on offer at 100/1 to win SPOTY 2016. An outright win is unlikely for a rugby player, but I've backed him e.w. to finish top three at one-fifth the win odds, i.e. 20/1.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
Possibly, but that doesn't resolve the issues that caused the Ref to fail last time. The key ones being...
* Economy based on oil - even worse than before.
* Currency: Euro will leave their finances under control of Brussels. Scottish £ under control of Westminster (with no MPs to influence).
Their trade with England and RoW is far more important to them then Europe, therefore once everyone calms down, Sindy#2 is likely to be No again.
Hello Jacques, we want to Join the EU as an independent nation.
Splendid, Splendid. The £3 billion a year membership fees will help offset the loss of the UK contribution.
But, but, we cant afford that, we need you to give us several billion a year net to replace the Barnet money.
Nicola, this is the real world not, not the Krankies comedy show.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
A stick and carrot approach is needed on the SNP.
The stick is the SNP's own position. If scotland has the right to leave the UK because it voted differently in a referendum, then so do regions of scotland have the right to leave scotland if they vote differently in a scottish referendum, we are democrats after all right ?
The carrot should be to maintain all of scottish EU funds and grants thus not affecting any material change to the scottish economy.
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
Glass? Glass?
When I were a lad we were lucky to half a plastic coke bottle to drink from!
I think we are going through the elation period to now wondering if the establishment is capable of doing a good deal.
I suspect that sentiment will echoed time and time again over the coming months and years: Brexit is crap but only because the establishment screwed it up.
We can replace the establishment. (or at least the politicians).
You can tell when a cabinet minister is the peoples man or a representative of their ministry.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
The vote was once in a generation - the referendum was announced in 2013 before their 2014 vote. They knew this could happen when they voted to stay.
They were assured it wouldn't happen. This is a material change. What purpose would denying a new referendum serve? The Leave case was that we know best how to govern ourselves. Surely the Scots know best how to govern themselves. Or is Scotland a colony with a future to be decided outside its own frontiers?
Well done to all PBers who called this right and made lots of money yesterday morning. I didn't get involved as I wanted REMAIN to win too much to be able to be objective. I was surprised at the divergence between the Betfair prices on the one hand and the early results and the views of the PB Brains trust on the other hand. I thought London might yet turn it around and wondered if PBers had calculated correctly.
As it turns out Pbers were resoundingly right and Betfair was wrong. So who was losing all the money on Betfair? For every winner there is a loser. Hardly any one here it appears. Unless we have "shy" Losers which must be possible.
So two huge votes in succession, GE 2015 and Referendum 2016, where the polls were massively wrong and the market was very slow to adjust to actual incoming results.
Easy money for some here ......
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
UK is your biggest trading partner by quite some way. You dont really trade that much with the rest of EU and RoW is more important for industries like whiskey. The Scottish Finance sector can only wither under tight EU legislation.
This to me seems to me to be a vital practical point, but may not move people "spiritually" particularly depending on shifts in the media and political landscape. Does anybody have, even broad, answers to the questions I asked earlier?
Putting aside fiscal issues, oil and currency - those are Big Questions, but I think susceptible to answers in the long run - isn't Scotland much more deeply integrated with rUK than rEU?
From a practical situation, what percentage of Scotland's trade is with (i) rUK, (ii) rEU, (iii) USA,(iv) elsewhere in the world? What are the long term trends in this, bearing in mind the global trade is generally growing much faster than intra-EU trade, and developing economies are expanding at a much greater pace than the EU (i.e. EU's share of world GDP is shrinking), and that for the very long-run view we ought to consider cutting oil exports out of the equation?
From the point of view of free movement, how many Scots move to rUK (for work/study/whatever) compared to rEU? How many Scots live in Scotland but commute to rUK for work, and how many (won't be many, but will be a few) commute to rEU?
If the question is one of "how do we retain our long-term access to our major trading partner" I wonder to what extent the best answer to that is Sindy and Scotmain.
Anyone know when the People's Republic of Brighton & Hove will break away and form their own country within the EU?
After all, they voted to Remain and they are forced to Leave the EU against their will.
Not just Brighton and Hove, but all the way from Lewes, through Guildford, Winchester, Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Cotswold to Stroud there's a connected area which I suggest is called 'Remainia'. There are also outlying islands of Tunbridge Wells, St Albans and Cambridgeshire.
This is in fact London. All these places are about 1 hour on the train to London. It's City Commuterville.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
One quick one would be we pay them a net contribution of say £4 billion and we get free trade, no unlimited migration, no ECJ etc.
Exactly.
Notice how our guys are relaxed at home, theirs are bouncing up and down in brussels demanding we send the article 50 letter.
Our stock market is up on the week, theirs have crashed.
F*** them. Sit on the article 50 letter, dither and dather, let their ecomomy go to pot, let them feel the pain greece has felt and we felt in the ERM.
Let the PIGS crises worsen and then let them stare down the barrel of doom.
Then send the letter, tell them our terms, tell them they can accept them and have £4 billion a year market access payment or we can let jt drag on for months.
They will sign.
There is so much that's sad and depressing about that post that I don't know where to start. Is this really the country that I live in? One where people are happy for millions to suffer across a continent so the UK can get a slightly better deal, and fewer people who "don't speak English proper, like".
If that's in any way representative of Britain - and thankfully I don't think it is - then Europe are well shot of us.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
I'm sure jokes about your ARSE taking a pounding the other night have already been made!
I'm afraid it will never look quite the same again.
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Remind me what position he holds with the Government?
None. For clarity that wasn't my point. I was just citing further evidence that Leave was based n a premeditated pack of lies. But that's voters problem not Matthew Elliot's. He's a genius.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
The vote was once in a generation - the referendum was announced in 2013 before their 2014 vote. They knew this could happen when they voted to stay.
They were assured it wouldn't happen. This is a material change. What purpose would denying a new referendum serve? The Leave case was that we know best how to govern ourselves. Surely the Scots know best how to govern themselves. Or is Scotland a colony with a future to be decided outside its own frontiers?
Difficult questions for Leavers and ones that were raised here many times.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
Good God. Independence entails austerity on a Greek scale and being severed from their most important market (the UK). EU membership will depend on the long and complex accession procedures and will result in a much worse deal than the one they enjoyed as part of the UK. Queen as head of state might happen, but the SNP have always been a republican party. And they can't join the Euro immediately, so they'll have to set up a new currency and plough money into pegging it to the pound.
I know the Leave camp over-stated their case somewhat, but if the SNP get an independence vote on this manifesto there are going to be a lot of angry Scots when reality comes knocking.
Thinking about it, Scotland's independence is workable, but the timing is critical. The SNP need to win a referendum quickly and ask for accelerated accession negotiations with the EU, so that Scotland's accession is coordinated with the rUK's exit. As Scotland already has the laws and systems in place, the only issue is an existing reserve bank and currency, but perhaps they will be worked around in the very special circumstances.
Nope. Scotland also lacks the regulatory framework for public broadcasting, enforcement and administrative capacities for taxation, and a competition authority.
Lots of false assumptions there!
They are only severed from their biggest market IF the UK leaves the single market. England leaving a market with both Europe and Scotland is an even worse outcome for us than what we already face. So a nice question of who blinks first. And the prob of us leaving the single market is already nowhere near 100%.
They wont go through the accession process. Sturgeon will as we speak be sounding out EU leaders on whether they can retain continuous membership. Everything from here on is unprecedented.
The currency issue is the big one, but both the £ and the Euro remain viable options.
The CFP would collapse without Scotland, with 30% of the EUs fishing waters in the Scottish EEZ. While not huge overall, it is very important to Spain. A CFP collapse might bring additional pressure on CAP reform - as I see things, Spain does not appear to benefit much from CAP (it would have a strong competitive advantage in a free Agricultural market) and its advantages in CFP are a sop to keep them happy.
Hows keeping the CFP in place beneficial to Scotland ? There is no chance of CAP reform unless France agrees it and with the UK gone where's the pressure ?
I don't know if I can answer all those questions. My impression is that Scotland would cut a deal on CFP but it would not be anywhere nearly as bad as the way the UK government threw the industry under the bus. There is likely to be some value to the EU in getting a reduced deal over access to Scotland's EEZ than no deal at all.
so youve naded your fishereies away to get what ?
UK is your biggest trading partner by quite some way. You dont really trade that much with the rest of EU and RoW is more important for industries like whiskey. The Scottish Finance sector can only wither under tight EU legislation.
Any chance of Edinburgh financial sector doing well at the expense of London if Scotland remains in EU?
Apparently the ECB would want the institutions to be based (not all employees) where they do most business so.... no.
The other issue is the size of the sector compared to GDP if it goes a bit Pete Tong.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
One quick one would be we pay them a net contribution of say £4 billion and we get free trade, no unlimited migration, no ECJ etc.
Exactly.
Notice how our guys are relaxed at home, theirs are bouncing up and down in brussels demanding we send the article 50 letter.
Our stock market is up on the week, theirs have crashed.
F*** them. Sit on the article 50 letter, dither and dather, let their ecomomy go to pot, let them feel the pain greece has felt and we felt in the ERM.
Let the PIGS crises worsen and then let them stare down the barrel of doom.
Then send the letter, tell them our terms, tell them they can accept them and have £4 billion a year market access payment or we can let jt drag on for months.
They will sign.
There is so much that's sad and depressing about that post that I don't know where to start. Is this really the country that I live in? One where people are happy for millions to suffer across a continent so the UK can get a slightly better deal, and fewer people who "don't speak English proper, like".
If that's in any way representative of Britain - and thankfully I don't think it is - then Europe are well shot of us.
Don't worry. The medium-term effect of the Brexit vote is that people like this will consign themselves to political irrelevance. Let them enjoy their moment in the sun.
Well done to all PBers who called this right and made lots of money yesterday morning. I didn't get involved as I wanted REMAIN to win too much to be able to be objective. I was surprised at the divergence between the Betfair prices on the one hand and the early results and the views of the PB Brains trust on the other hand. I thought London might yet turn it around and wondered if PBers had calculated correctly.
As it turns out Pbers were resoundingly right and Betfair was wrong. So who was losing all the money on Betfair? For every winner there is a loser. Hardly any one here it appears. Unless we have "shy" Losers which must be possible.
So two huge votes in succession, GE 2015 and Referendum 2016, where the polls were massively wrong and the market was very slow to adjust to actual results.
Easy money for some here ......
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Who was losing all the money on Betfair? Gibraltar (internet betting companies based there), the City, SouthamObserver.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
We are all now looking forward to an extra £350 million a week being spent on the NHS, higher wages, cheaper housing, more jobs, no tax rises and substantially lower levels of immigration.
If the economy takes off in anything like the way it did after Glorious Black Wednesday in 1992 there will be a lot more than £350 a week to spend.
We were part of the single market then.
We are now
Not for too much longer and investors know that.
It's actually worse - they don't know - business hates uncertainty.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Remind me what position he holds with the Government?
None. For clarity that wasn't my point. I was just citing further evidence that Leave was based n a premeditated pack of lies. But that's voters problem not Matthew Elliot's. He's a genius.
Of course it wasn't. It was based on a coalition of fellow travellers, all of whom (if they wanted Leave at all) had different outcomes and visions for post-Brexit Britain in mind.
The same can be said of the Remain camp, though the effects are considerably less pronounced because the prospect of Remain offered little freedom of outcome - we would go the EU way.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
A stick and carrot approach is needed on the SNP.
The stick is the SNP's own position. If scotland has the right to leave the UK because it voted differently in a referendum, then so do regions of scotland have the right to leave scotland if they vote differently in a scottish referendum, we are democrats after all right ?
The carrot should be to maintain all of scottish EU funds and grants thus not affecting any material change to the scottish economy.
Does the same apply to England? If regions of Scotland want to leave an independent Scotland that's none of our business.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
The death of the UK is hugely sad.
It is. If only there had been warnings from people we could believe and not just experts.
You then had Osborne promising his fatuous emergency budget. And the short term economic costs don't seem huge. If you don't agree with me check Paul Krugman. The sad reality is the English are not prepared to do whatever is necessary to keep Scotland in the UK.
As for the so called experts, a lot of these people amount to the British commercial and financial elite - so many of whom urged us to vote Conservative at the election last year in the full knowledge that they were planning an EU referendum. The Prime minister himself said he'd campaign for 'leave' if he couldn't get what he wanted - restricting EU migrant benefits! Given so many of the elite failed to predict the huge financial crisis of 2008 and have come up with few answers since can we really blame people for being unimpressed?
More than that most of these people have advocated policies over a generation that have torn this island apart both economically and socially. They blithely ignored any warnings about the damage that was being done to political cohesion as the economy became dominated by finance and in particular the city and large parts of the country fell behind. All of this was just a necessary adjustment to the modern world. No doubt their endless ability to avoid responsibility and blame someone else, a classic characteristic of most senior people, will have them sleeping easy at night. And after all if London is no longer to their liking outside the EU, there's always Paris, Frankfurt or if you really fancy something completely different New York.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
One quick one would be we pay them a net contribution of say £4 billion and we get free trade, no unlimited migration, no ECJ etc.
So that's £80m of the £350m a week NHS fund gone already!
But £8 billion in corporation tax extra a year by removing the ECJ so a net extra £4 billion not minus £4 billion.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
Not unreasonable if you're a cretinous bureaucrat with your head in the sand. The people are sovereign, and the people have spoken.
The cognitive dissonance now being displayed by the Brexiteers is breathtaking, and hysterical.
"This wasn't about immigration!" they squeal.
Where exactly have they been for the last 2 months?
Dan Hannon's bruising collision with the reality of the campaign he stood on was pretty funny, but SeanT is at it too
@thomasknox: So we join the EEA. We keep free trade & movement - for now. But ultimate sovereignty will reside with the British people. Job done.
@thomasknox: Voting LEAVE is a necessary but not sufficient means to end Free Movement. The choice is now with the people, let them decide in an election
If Boris wants to sign us up to free movement I want an election first.
I want him to tour the country in a bus with "Free Movement of People" in letters 10ft high on the side.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
One quick one would be we pay them a net contribution of say £4 billion and we get free trade, no unlimited migration, no ECJ etc.
Exactly.
Notice how our guys are relaxed at home, theirs are bouncing up and down in brussels demanding we send the article 50 letter.
Our stock market is up on the week, theirs have crashed.
F*** them. Sit on the article 50 letter, dither and dather, let their ecomomy go to pot, let them feel the pain greece has felt and we felt in the ERM.
Let the PIGS crises worsen and then let them stare down the barrel of doom.
Then send the letter, tell them our terms, tell them they can accept them and have £4 billion a year market access payment or we can let jt drag on for months.
They will sign.
There is so much that's sad and depressing about that post that I don't know where to start. Is this really the country that I live in? One where people are happy for millions to suffer across a continent so the UK can get a slightly better deal, and fewer people who "don't speak English proper, like".
If that's in any way representative of Britain - and thankfully I don't think it is - then Europe are well shot of us.
Also very naïve. I somehow doubt the silence from the leading leavers this weekend reflects the fact that they are "relaxed at home" watching Switzerland v Poland. I expect they have the landline off the hook and are very busy on their mobiles trying to work out what to do.
edit/ Farage excepted, of course... he alone is free of the consequences, at least for a while.
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Yes, the immigration thing has been comprehensively kicked into the long grass. As a previous poster said, there's actually a political case for the Tories to increase it, thereby rubbing the working class's noses in diversity and shoving them off to UKIP.
No there isn't. Many Conservatives actually care about the working classes.
We have had wasted decades - going back to Thatcher's "no, no, no" to the single currency - of strategic drift. Locked in uncomfortable semi-detachment to a project whose core aims were different to our own. We held them back and the tugged us forward, and ultimately that was to the detriment of both us and our partners. We did not share their polity. We did not share their dreams. We did not share their destiny. But in our little ways, we have impeded them from reaching theirs. At the same time, there has been a deep tension in our politics about our geostrategic direction. How are we to face the world?
We now know, in broad brushstrokes, the answer to that question and we can work towards it. For those who are afraid that a Leave vote has revealed the dark underbelly of Anglo-Welsh character - xenophobic, closed and hateful - I can provide the limited comfort that I didn't vote as I did out of hatred to immigrants. Immigration hardly figured for me - though I welcome the opportunity it gives for a more targeted system, better planned and more fair to applicants from outside the EU. Obviously migration was a major issue for millions of other Leave voters. But those who I talked to were concerned about "numbers" and "control", not trying to shut the country off entirely - and if you don't find their concerns reasonable, perhaps you should try living (as I have done) in places demographically transformed by the 2004 and 2007 accessions. Moreover, to the extent that there are hateful immigrant-bashers out there, they hold hardly any sway in parliament. The future extent of our polity is unknown - what happens to Scotland is for the Scots to decide - but its outlook is going to be global, outward-looking and cooperative with European neighbours on matters of mutual concern, without being trapped tensely in a body set on a different course to our own.
That may not have been your favoured vision of our future, but I hope you can welcome the clarity. For me, it represents the best conceivable outcome. I was afraid that my fearful compatriots would vote out driven by intimidation, but they did not fluff their lines and we took our chance in a lifetime. I am proud of them. And delighted. It was a great day.
And just to reiterate, I am exhilarated and ecstatic.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
That will not fly. It will be dangerous if Westminster goes down that path. You will get people on the street. Don't even think about it.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
Not unreasonable if you're a cretinous bureaucrat with your head in the sand. The people are sovereign, and the people have spoken.
The cognitive dissonance now being displayed by the Brexiteers is breathtaking, and hysterical.
"This wasn't about immigration!" they squeal.
Where exactly have they been for the last 2 months?
Dan Hannon's bruising collision with the reality of the campaign he stood on was pretty funny, but SeanT is at it too
@thomasknox: So we join the EEA. We keep free trade & movement - for now. But ultimate sovereignty will reside with the British people. Job done.
@thomasknox: Voting LEAVE is a necessary but not sufficient means to end Free Movement. The choice is now with the people, let them decide in an election
If Boris wants to sign us up to free movement I want an election first.
I want him to tour the country in a bus with "Free Movement of People" in letters 10ft high on the side.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
Why would Westminster do that? The Scottish government got a mandate last month to seek a second independence referendum if there were a material change in Scotland's circumstances. That has happened. Either we're democrats or we're not.
The cognitive dissonance now being displayed by the Brexiteers is breathtaking, and hysterical.
"This wasn't about immigration!" they squeal.
Where exactly have they been for the last 2 months?
Dan Hannon's bruising collision with the reality of the campaign he stood on was pretty funny, but SeanT is at it too
@thomasknox: So we join the EEA. We keep free trade & movement - for now. But ultimate sovereignty will reside with the British people. Job done.
@thomasknox: Voting LEAVE is a necessary but not sufficient means to end Free Movement. The choice is now with the people, let them decide in an election
If Boris wants to sign us up to free movement I want an election first.
I want him to tour the country in a bus with "Free Movement of People" in letters 10ft high on the side.
Now you're even quoting SeanT's bloody tweets? Can he not inform us himself first hand of his views? The sooner you get a proper job (preferably one where they value you enough to give you a chair) the better.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
That will not fly. It will be dangerous if Westminster goes down that path. You will get people on the street. Don't even think about it.
I agree. Any attempt to block a further Scottish referendum at the moment would just drive more people into voting Yes. The situation gas changed and the Scots gave z right to have their say again.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
Not unreasonable if you're a cretinous bureaucrat with your head in the sand. The people are sovereign, and the people have spoken.
The people spoke in September 2014!
And as Cameron said the next day, the voice of England needed to be heard. Now it has, and the consequences for Scotland are inevitable.
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
I think it was a canny bet. I thought it was incredibly unlikely too, but May was very cleverly placed as the post-Brexit option, and Cameron will do all he can to stop Boris. May is a compromise candidate, and imo (for what that's worth) enters the contest as the favourite.
Some insight behind that "awesome" REMAIN machine.
"At around 3pm, Cameron’s team took a phone call which made them convinced that victory was in the bag. Lord Cooper, a co-founder of the Populus polling company and the architect of the PM’s policy on gay marriage, called to say he thought the margin of victory for Remain would be 60/40. A few hours later, Populus published its final poll of the campaign – giving Remain a commanding ten-point lead. Not surprisingly, the findings triggered premature celebrations among the No 10 team. With presumptuous misplaced confidence, political adviser Laura Trott (one of the most senior women in Cameron’s ‘kitchen cabinet’) briefed every special adviser working for pro-Remain Cabinet ministers that the Government was home and dry."
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
That sounds good Scott_P. I'll have a score at that price please. :-)
I'm on Osborne at 10/1. Not looking too good now.
Was it you and I who tipped Jack Straw at 50/1 to be next Labour leader when Brown first took over? I thought he might be the caretaker once Brown had been 'persuaded' to stand down.
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
For a leading campaigner-remainer, I agree absolutely. But May kept her head down and did her best to get as close to the fence as possible (ECHR etc). It's question of whether she can pull off the "unity candidate, bringing all sides together in the national interest" line against Boris's obvious divisiveness. It must be possible to build a constituency from the remainers plus the responsibles plus Tories who can't stand Boris...
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
Why would Westminster do that? The Scottish government got a mandate last month to seek a second independence referendum if there were a material change in Scotland's circumstances. That has happened. Either we're democrats or we're not.
The SNP actually lost its majority last month - even Jim Sillars has said that there is no mandate for another Independence Referendum. As it was , turnout was only circa 55% for the Scottish Parliament compared with 85% in September 2014.
Well done to all PBers who called this right and made lots of money yesterday morning. I didn't get involved as I wanted REMAIN to win too much to be able to be objective. I was surprised at the divergence between the Betfair prices on the one hand and the early results and the views of the PB Brains trust on the other hand. I thought London might yet turn it around and wondered if PBers had calculated correctly.
As it turns out Pbers were resoundingly right and Betfair was wrong. So who was losing all the money on Betfair? For every winner there is a loser. Hardly any one here it appears. Unless we have "shy" Losers which must be possible.
So two huge votes in succession, GE 2015 and Referendum 2016, where the polls were massively wrong and the market was very slow to adjust to actual results.
Easy money for some here ......
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Who was losing all the money on Betfair? Gibraltar (internet betting companies based there), the City, SouthamObserver.
Southam didn't lose.
Scrapheap the only person on here who has admitted to making a loss I think.
They are only severed from their biggest market IF the UK leaves the single market.
If the UK doesn't leave the Single Market, then the SNP is advocating joining the EU purely to hand control from Westminster to Brussels. Further devolution including control of fisheries and farming, combined with continued access to both the UK and the Single Market, would be a better situation for Scotland than membership of the EU. You've also missed the point that if Scotland can't simultaneously organise independence and EU membership, the UK might stay in the Single Market and Scotland leave it.
The currency issue is the big one, but both the £ and the Euro remain viable options.
Sharing the pound is out, as the UK made clear last time, and they can't join the Euro without a detailed convergence assessment (and would fail on the deficit criteria anyway). They'll have to create their own currency and peg it to something, which will cost a lot of money.
They wont go through the accession process. Sturgeon will as we speak be sounding out EU leaders on whether they can retain continuous membership. Everything from here on is unprecedented.
Nobody has yet provided a single justification why any EU leader should allow Scotland simply to hop into membership, or retain cushy opt-outs like Schengen. Accession is not a QMV area, so the UK will retain a veto until it leaves. The SNP is now proposing organise, hold and win a referendum, and to set up a new country as well as meeting all the criteria for EU membership in less than the two years it will take the UK to negotiate out under Article 50.
Put simply, this whole suggestion appears like nationalist narcissism. If Scotland votes for it, it's up to them. But you can't deride Brexiteers for having unrealistic ambitions and then seriously propose this sort of stuff.
Yesterday was the happiest day of my life but I was mind-achingly tired.
Now I'm fully rested, this is going to be the happiest non-tired day of my life.
It was a great day. I am exhilarated. It was brilliant. I am thousands of pounds worse off. I don't care. It was great.
I don't want to be too in-your-face jubilant because it suggests - to all those people who thought very seriously and carefully before they voted "Remain" - that I am glad they lost, haha. That isn't at all the case. I am just very happy, for myself and for my country.
The thing I loved most of all was the festival of democracy and the millions of people who did not feel they had a voice who finally got their chance at the ballot box. If it is any consolation to those who are fearful or angry that the wrong decision has been made, the thing that makes me second-happiest is simply that a decision has been made. Had I voted in vain at the referendum, I would still have taken solace from these two facts.
What country are you happy for? Not the UK, obviously. It's about to end.
Thinking about it, that really would be a body blow to the establishment. And so very much a positive thing. A new England. Someone wrote a song about that once.
I am no unionist, but I can't see why I shouldn't be happy for the UK. In the event of a breakup of the UK, that does bring long-term geostrategic clarity to all sides, isn't that a good thing? I don't love the UK as some abstract idea to be preserved forever in aspic. Maybe a political union of England, Wales, Scotland and (somewhat artificially) Northern Ireland is an idea whose time and utility has come and gone. In the very long run, demographic changes make it unlikely NI will be in the UK forever. The "killing nationalism stone dead" Scottish Parliament, particularly when created in the context of a flailing Scottish Tory party that meant the nationalists were going to be given greater relevance (initially as the opposition to SAB, o tempora), always made Sindy likely in the long run on an "only got to be lucky in one crisis" basis. The closeness of the last referendum hardly added to long-term certainty.
It's not a bad thing when people seize and reshape their destiny. If they can do so democratically and at the ballot box - when so many millions of people in this world are denied that right - then that is magnificent.
Our previous place in the world was a muddle, and one largely of politicians' making. The machinations of representative democracy meant the lowly populace were generally denied much say in big questions of national direction.
As for your feelings about the establishment: politicians should exist to serve the people. And they should be afraid of us. If this result enhances that, it's democracy's gain.
The cognitive dissonance now being displayed by the Brexiteers is breathtaking, and hysterical.
"This wasn't about immigration!" they squeal.
Where exactly have they been for the last 2 months?
Dan Hannon's bruising collision with the reality of the campaign he stood on was pretty funny, but SeanT is at it too
@thomasknox: So we join the EEA. We keep free trade & movement - for now. But ultimate sovereignty will reside with the British people. Job done.
@thomasknox: Voting LEAVE is a necessary but not sufficient means to end Free Movement. The choice is now with the people, let them decide in an election
If Boris wants to sign us up to free movement I want an election first.
I want him to tour the country in a bus with "Free Movement of People" in letters 10ft high on the side.
The delicious irony is that Leavers are now using a tactic straight out of Ted Heath's playbook: 'If you had actually listened to what we were saying beneath the hullabaloo of the campaign you'd know that we always said we favoured immigration.'
The cognitive dissonance now being displayed by the Brexiteers is breathtaking, and hysterical.
"This wasn't about immigration!" they squeal.
Where exactly have they been for the last 2 months?
Dan Hannon's bruising collision with the reality of the campaign he stood on was pretty funny, but SeanT is at it too
@thomasknox: So we join the EEA. We keep free trade & movement - for now. But ultimate sovereignty will reside with the British people. Job done.
@thomasknox: Voting LEAVE is a necessary but not sufficient means to end Free Movement. The choice is now with the people, let them decide in an election
If Boris wants to sign us up to free movement I want an election first.
I want him to tour the country in a bus with "Free Movement of People" in letters 10ft high on the side.
Now you're even quoting SeanT's bloody tweets? Can he not inform us himself first hand of his views? The sooner you get a proper job (preferably one where they value you enough to give you a chair) the better.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
A stick and carrot approach is needed on the SNP.
The stick is the SNP's own position. If scotland has the right to leave the UK because it voted differently in a referendum, then so do regions of scotland have the right to leave scotland if they vote differently in a scottish referendum, we are democrats after all right ?
The carrot should be to maintain all of scottish EU funds and grants thus not affecting any material change to the scottish economy.
Does the same apply to England? If regions of Scotland want to leave an independent Scotland that's none of our business.
Pro-EU diehards are already trying to declare an independent London, Brighton and Hove. As you said, aren't we democrats after all ?
Lets see which regions would have a majority of people having the EU as their single top priority over anything else. The result would be something resembling the movie "Passport to Pimlico": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passport_to_Pimlico
At this point it's not inconceivable, although unlikely, that Scottish independence could happen without a referendum and with the consent of Westminster.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
What's the easiest, cheapest way to mitigate a Sterling crash next week?
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
That sounds good Scott_P. I'll have a score at that price please. :-)
I'm on Osborne at 10/1. Not looking too good now.
Was it you and I who tipped Jack Straw at 50/1 to be next Labour leader when Brown first took over? I thought he might be the caretaker once Brown had been 'persuaded' to stand down.
No. I tipped Alistair Darling at odds of at least 100/1 - and he became a serious possibility at one stage. I can't remember now if that was to succeed Blair or Brown.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
The EU can demand what it likes , but it is clearly laid down that it is for the departing state to activate Article 50. At the end of the day the UK Government is not even constitutionally bound to honour the Referendum result even though politically it would be very difficult to do otherwise.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Indeed, we should expedite it. If they want to be independent, we should help them be independent before we leave the EU.
On topic, when I said that it would be a shame to burn the house down just for the sake of keeping the foreigners out, I had hoped it would be hyperbole.
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
I think it was a canny bet. I thought it was incredibly unlikely too, but May was very cleverly placed as the post-Brexit option, and Cameron will do all he can to stop Boris. May is a compromise candidate, and imo (for what that's worth) enters the contest as the favourite.
The key for Boris is to get nominated by enough MPs. If he can get onto the ballot of members then I think (rather than hope) that he will win. If he can't get onto the ballot then I agree - May must be in with a decent chance.
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
For a leading campaigner-remainer, I agree absolutely. But May kept her head down and did her best to get as close to the fence as possible (ECHR etc). It's question of whether she can pull off the "unity candidate, bringing all sides together in the national interest" line against Boris's obvious divisiveness. It must be possible to build a constituency from the remainers plus the responsibles plus Tories who can't stand Boris...
Exactly. The basic problem for Boris is how he gets on the ballot when a large chunk of the parliamentary party utterly despises him.
Notice how our guys are relaxed at home, theirs are bouncing up and down in brussels demanding we send the article 50 letter.
Our stock market is up on the week, theirs have crashed.
F*** them. Sit on the article 50 letter, dither and dather, let their ecomomy go to pot, let them feel the pain greece has felt and we felt in the ERM.
Let the PIGS crises worsen and then let them stare down the barrel of doom.
Then send the letter, tell them our terms, tell them they can accept them and have £4 billion a year market access payment or we can let jt drag on for months.
They will sign.
So we're going to stay in until they give us a deal we like. And if they don't give us a deal we like, we're just going to keep staying in until they jolly well do so. Because if they don't, we'll...well, we'll just keep staying in. And paying them £350million a week. That'll show them.
At this point it's not inconceivable, although unlikely, that Scottish independence could happen without a referendum and with the consent of Westminster.
Westminster would be insane to refuse, which is why people like Bernard Jenkin are talking about it
At least Messrs P and Tyson have retuned to vent their fury, but where is Roger? I hope he hasn't set himself alight in protest, to rise from the ashes a fully fledged Tory.
The people have decided; we now get on with it, hopefully constructively. Crying like a baby is unbecoming. Whatever happened to the good old British stiff upper lip?
It's unusual for me to be on the winning side, and it's an odd feeling.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
What's the easiest, cheapest way to mitigate a Sterling crash next week?
They are only severed from their biggest market IF the UK leaves the single market.
If the UK doesn't leave the Single Market, then Scotland is advocating joining the EU purely to hand control from Westminster to Brussels. Further devolution including control of fisheries and farming, combined with continued access to both the UK and the Single Market, would be a better situation for Scotland than membership of the EU. You've also missed the point that if Scotland can't simultaneously organise independence and EU membership, the UK might stay in the Single Market and Scotland leave it.
The currency issue is the big one, but both the £ and the Euro remain viable options.
Sharing the pound is out, as the UK made clear last time, and they can't join the Euro without a detailed convergence assessment (and would fail on the deficit criteria anyway). They'll have to create their own currency and peg it to something, which will cost a lot of money.
They wont go through the accession process. Sturgeon will as we speak be sounding out EU leaders on whether they can retain continuous membership. Everything from here on is unprecedented.
Nobody has yet provided a single justification why any EU leader should allow Scotland simply to hop into membership, or retain cushy opt-outs like Schengen. Accession is not a QMV area, so the UK will retain a veto until it leaves. Scotland is now proposing to set up a new country as well as meeting all the criteria for EU membership in less than the two years it will take the UK to negotiate out under Article 50.
Put simply, this whole suggestion appears like nationalist narcissism. If Scotland votes for it, it's up to them. But you can't deride Brexiteers for having unrealistic ambitions and then seriously propose this sort of stuff.
1. Just like the vote we have just had, rational dispassionate analysis of the options will only be part of the story
2. If the EU wants it enough, I think you'll find many of the problems you offer might disappear
3. The rUK may not find itself in quite as strong a position re. Scotland than it was before
4. Arranging for the two choices to be worked up in parallel is, IMHO, exactly what Sturgeon will try and do. "Which gamble do you prefer?" is much sounder ground than "Do you fancy taking a big risk?", particularly if you can sell your gamble as the safer one.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
Not quite. Westminster can still maintain that Brexit does not invalidate the 2014 Independence result which was said to be 'a once in a generation' decision. Not unreasonable to say -'come back in 20 years and we will discuss the possibility of another Referendum'.
That will not fly. It will be dangerous if Westminster goes down that path. You will get people on the street. Don't even think about it.
I agree. Any attempt to block a further Scottish referendum at the moment would just drive more people into voting Yes. The situation gas changed and the Scots gave z right to have their say again.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
Possibly, but that doesn't resolve the issues that caused the Ref to fail last time. The key ones being...
* Economy based on oil - even worse than before.
* Currency: Euro will leave their finances under control of Brussels. Scottish £ under control of Westminster (with no MPs to influence).
Their trade with England and RoW is far more important to them than Europe, therefore once everyone calms down, Sindy#2 is likely to be No again.
I agree. Problem is we are still at the shouting stage, with Argh... referee!
What is more, a UK trading block will work well for Scotland. Decent UK negotiated trade deals will help Scotland.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Don’t think the EU is in any position to demand anything; if it is in Britain’s best interest to sign the A50 quickly, then it will do so. As for Sturgeon, she may speak to whom she wishes, Scotland has no authority to call a referendum, - she doesn’t even command a majority in the Scottish house.
That report on BBC News just now that the EU either want Cameron to get on with article 50 now or a new PM to be appointed in the next few days. Is quite beautiful that they can't get what they want this time, unlike how they have treated so many other countries.
They are telling us when to appoint a new PM?
The BBC report said the feeling there is that Cameron should own this and activate article 50 straight away. If not, he should go and the next leader should do this in the next few days. We have seen in other countries they have no issues with installing a new leader in an extremely short timeframe, they want the same to happen with us.
They don't get it do they? They can't dictate terms anymore.
The EU can demand what it likes , but it is clearly laid down that it is for the departing state to activate Article 50. At the end of the day the UK Government is not even constitutionally bound to honour the Referendum result even though politically it would be very difficult to do otherwise.
It is equally clear that no state can hold the entire EU hostage by threatening to secede without actually triggering it.
If we faff about too long they might just declare us in breach of existing treaties and kick anyway
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
Single To Win Theresa May @ 33/1 Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Losing money on Betfair again?
It's not going to be a Remainer. Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
For a leading campaigner-remainer, I agree absolutely. But May kept her head down and did her best to get as close to the fence as possible (ECHR etc). It's question of whether she can pull off the "unity candidate, bringing all sides together in the national interest" line against Boris's obvious divisiveness. It must be possible to build a constituency from the remainers plus the responsibles plus Tories who can't stand Boris...
Forget it, no one who supported Remain even as an abstract is going to be the next Tory leader, the Tory membership would never vote for one.
You have to think of someone who will be in the top 2 of MP's list and who can win the membership. May maybe on the top 2 but she will never win the membership, no Remainer can.
The delicious irony is that Leavers are now using a tactic straight out of Ted Heath's playbook: 'If you had actually listened to what we were saying beneath the hullabaloo of the campaign you'd know that we always said we favoured immigration.'
Vote Leave =/= Nigel Farage. Vote Leave are indeed sticking to what they said. The problem is that a lot of Leave voters were listening to Farage.
What about Wollaston? She was sympathetic to Brexit but changed her mind because the campaign was so fraudulent. I doubt she'd win but she could shake things up by standing as an outside candidate.
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Don’t think the EU is in any position to demand anything; if it is in Britain’s best interest to sign the A50 quickly, then it will do so. As for Sturgeon, she may speak to whom she wishes, Scotland has no authority to call a referendum, - she doesn’t even command a majority in the Scottish house.
Lol - so who, other than possibly the Scottish Tories, is going to vote it down?!
@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
What's the easiest, cheapest way to mitigate a Sterling crash next week?
The cognitive dissonance now being displayed by the Brexiteers is breathtaking, and hysterical.
"This wasn't about immigration!" they squeal.
Where exactly have they been for the last 2 months?
Dan Hannon's bruising collision with the reality of the campaign he stood on was pretty funny, but SeanT is at it too
@thomasknox: So we join the EEA. We keep free trade & movement - for now. But ultimate sovereignty will reside with the British people. Job done.
@thomasknox: Voting LEAVE is a necessary but not sufficient means to end Free Movement. The choice is now with the people, let them decide in an election
If Boris wants to sign us up to free movement I want an election first.
I want him to tour the country in a bus with "Free Movement of People" in letters 10ft high on the side.
Now you're even quoting SeanT's bloody tweets? Can he not inform us himself first hand of his views? The sooner you get a proper job (preferably one where they value you enough to give you a chair) the better.
Don't attack the man, answer his arguments.
On that glorious day, if it ever happens, I shall.
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Remind me what position he holds with the Government?
None. For clarity that wasn't my point. I was just citing further evidence that Leave was based n a premeditated pack of lies. But that's voters problem not Matthew Elliot's. He's a genius.
Of course it wasn't. It was based on a coalition of fellow travellers, all of whom (if they wanted Leave at all) had different outcomes and visions for post-Brexit Britain in mind.
The same can be said of the Remain camp, though the effects are considerably less pronounced because the prospect of Remain offered little freedom of outcome - we would go the EU way.
There's a lot to be said for this.
Cameron's vision of Europe was not Corbyn's vision of Europe was not Farron's vision of Europe. But Cameron and Corbyn each had about as much power as Farron did to make their vision of Europe happen!!
Cameron's best wooing didn't result to much. I think he knew it - he dropped the "remaining in a reformed European Union" shtick pretty early in the campaign. We heard hardly anything about this much-vaunted deal he was allegedly happy to quit the EU from if they'd been unable to deliver it.
Corbyn said that he quite liked the EU but he wanted it to offer much stronger worker's protection for instance. But at a time that Macron and Renzi have been pushing "labour reform" (whoever's dreadful idea was that phrase - grates almost as badly as "human rights reform") and Merkel owes so much to the pains of Hartz reforms (not just the economic gains, but the massive damage the SPD inflicted on itself by enacting them), even if Corbyn were Prime Minister, how could he have persuaded Europe to lock itself forever into Corbyn's vision of labour rights?
Farron would like a more liberal Europe, but the liberals (ALDE) are not a strong force in Brussels, so PM Farron would have very limited room to push through a Europe of his choosing.
How would someone describe the average Tory party member? This is serious I don't actually know any. Wealthy? Retired colonel? Hang 'em and flog 'em? Christian?
Comments
***** BETTING POST *****
England duly completed their 3 - 0 whitewash series win over Australia this afternoon, a truly remarkable and historic achievement and the first time this has happened in my lifetime.
It's not yet possible to back England for the SPOTY team award and anyway as and when this market opens, they are bound to be the short odd-on favourites, with the Wales Euro football side representing their only real competition thus far.
Today's result was much tighter with the Lillywhites winning by 44 points vs 40 points. Of those 44 points, Owen Farrell was responsible for 22 points, i.e. 2 conversions and 6 penalties, without him, therefore, England clearly wouldn't have made it ...... he was today's hero for sure!
Both Ladbrokes and Corals have him on offer at 100/1 to win SPOTY 2016. An outright win is unlikely for a rugby player, but I've backed him e.w. to finish top three at one-fifth the win odds, i.e. 20/1.
As ever, DYOR.
Splendid, Splendid. The £3 billion a year membership fees will help offset the loss of the UK contribution.
But, but, we cant afford that, we need you to give us several billion a year net to replace the Barnet money.
Nicola, this is the real world not, not the Krankies comedy show.
The stick is the SNP's own position.
If scotland has the right to leave the UK because it voted differently in a referendum, then so do regions of scotland have the right to leave scotland if they vote differently in a scottish referendum, we are democrats after all right ?
The carrot should be to maintain all of scottish EU funds and grants thus not affecting any material change to the scottish economy.
You can tell when a cabinet minister is the peoples man or a representative of their ministry.
As it turns out Pbers were resoundingly right and Betfair was wrong. So who was losing all the money on Betfair? For every winner there is a loser. Hardly any one here it appears. Unless we have "shy" Losers which must be possible.
So two huge votes in succession, GE 2015 and Referendum 2016, where the polls were massively wrong and the market was very slow to adjust to actual incoming results.
Easy money for some here ......
Now who is going to take over as Tory leader and PM?
If that's in any way representative of Britain - and thankfully I don't think it is - then Europe are well shot of us.
They are only severed from their biggest market IF the UK leaves the single market. England leaving a market with both Europe and Scotland is an even worse outcome for us than what we already face. So a nice question of who blinks first. And the prob of us leaving the single market is already nowhere near 100%.
They wont go through the accession process. Sturgeon will as we speak be sounding out EU leaders on whether they can retain continuous membership. Everything from here on is unprecedented.
The currency issue is the big one, but both the £ and the Euro remain viable options.
Theresa May @ 33/1
Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
The other issue is the size of the sector compared to GDP if it goes a bit Pete Tong.
Gibraltar (internet betting companies based there), the City, SouthamObserver.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629646
The same can be said of the Remain camp, though the effects are considerably less pronounced because the prospect of Remain offered little freedom of outcome - we would go the EU way.
As for the so called experts, a lot of these people amount to the British commercial and financial elite - so many of whom urged us to vote Conservative at the election last year in the full knowledge that they were planning an EU referendum. The Prime minister himself said he'd campaign for 'leave' if he couldn't get what he wanted - restricting EU migrant benefits! Given so many of the elite failed to predict the huge financial crisis of 2008 and have come up with few answers since can we really blame people for being unimpressed?
More than that most of these people have advocated policies over a generation that have torn this island apart both economically and socially. They blithely ignored any warnings about the damage that was being done to political cohesion as the economy became dominated by finance and in particular the city and large parts of the country fell behind. All of this was just a necessary adjustment to the modern world. No doubt their endless ability to avoid responsibility and blame someone else, a classic characteristic of most senior people, will have them sleeping easy at night. And after all if London is no longer to their liking outside the EU, there's always Paris, Frankfurt or if you really fancy something completely different New York.
It's not going to be a Remainer.
Cameron resigned because a Remainer doesn't have the authority or trust to lead the Brexit negotiations.
"This wasn't about immigration!" they squeal.
Where exactly have they been for the last 2 months?
Dan Hannon's bruising collision with the reality of the campaign he stood on was pretty funny, but SeanT is at it too
@thomasknox: So we join the EEA. We keep free trade & movement - for now. But ultimate sovereignty will reside with the British people. Job done.
@thomasknox: Voting LEAVE is a necessary but not sufficient means to end Free Movement. The choice is now with the people, let them decide in an election
If Boris wants to sign us up to free movement I want an election first.
I want him to tour the country in a bus with "Free Movement of People" in letters 10ft high on the side.
edit/ Farage excepted, of course... he alone is free of the consequences, at least for a while.
I'm on Osborne at 10/1. Not looking too good now.
"At around 3pm, Cameron’s team took a phone call which made them convinced that victory was in the bag. Lord Cooper, a co-founder of the Populus polling company and the architect of the PM’s policy on gay marriage, called to say he thought the margin of victory for Remain would be 60/40. A few hours later, Populus published its final poll of the campaign – giving Remain a commanding ten-point lead.
Not surprisingly, the findings triggered premature celebrations among the No 10 team. With presumptuous misplaced confidence, political adviser Laura Trott (one of the most senior women in Cameron’s ‘kitchen cabinet’) briefed every special adviser working for pro-Remain Cabinet ministers that the Government was home and dry."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3659064/ANDREW-PIERCE-Complacency-Number-10-bunker-turned-panic-tears.html#ixzz4Cb331mVN
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@faisalislam: So Day 2: diplomatic crisis as EU big 6 demand A50 invoked next week. Constitutional crisis as Scots says will talk directly with EU to stay
Scrapheap the only person on here who has admitted to making a loss I think.
Put simply, this whole suggestion appears like nationalist narcissism. If Scotland votes for it, it's up to them. But you can't deride Brexiteers for having unrealistic ambitions and then seriously propose this sort of stuff.
It's not a bad thing when people seize and reshape their destiny. If they can do so democratically and at the ballot box - when so many millions of people in this world are denied that right - then that is magnificent.
Our previous place in the world was a muddle, and one largely of politicians' making. The machinations of representative democracy meant the lowly populace were generally denied much say in big questions of national direction.
As for your feelings about the establishment: politicians should exist to serve the people. And they should be afraid of us. If this result enhances that, it's democracy's gain.
As you said, aren't we democrats after all ?
Lets see which regions would have a majority of people having the EU as their single top priority over anything else.
The result would be something resembling the movie "Passport to Pimlico":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passport_to_Pimlico
On topic, when I said that it would be a shame to burn the house down just for the sake of keeping the foreigners out, I had hoped it would be hyperbole.
The people have decided; we now get on with it, hopefully constructively. Crying like a baby is unbecoming. Whatever happened to the good old British stiff upper lip?
It's unusual for me to be on the winning side, and it's an odd feeling.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/britain-rainy-fascist-island-progrexit-brexit
1. Just like the vote we have just had, rational dispassionate analysis of the options will only be part of the story
2. If the EU wants it enough, I think you'll find many of the problems you offer might disappear
3. The rUK may not find itself in quite as strong a position re. Scotland than it was before
4. Arranging for the two choices to be worked up in parallel is, IMHO, exactly what Sturgeon will try and do. "Which gamble do you prefer?" is much sounder ground than "Do you fancy taking a big risk?", particularly if you can sell your gamble as the safer one.
What is more, a UK trading block will work well for Scotland. Decent UK negotiated trade deals will help Scotland.
If we faff about too long they might just declare us in breach of existing treaties and kick anyway
You have to think of someone who will be in the top 2 of MP's list and who can win the membership. May maybe on the top 2 but she will never win the membership, no Remainer can.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5085-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-rally
Cameron's vision of Europe was not Corbyn's vision of Europe was not Farron's vision of Europe. But Cameron and Corbyn each had about as much power as Farron did to make their vision of Europe happen!!
Cameron's best wooing didn't result to much. I think he knew it - he dropped the "remaining in a reformed European Union" shtick pretty early in the campaign. We heard hardly anything about this much-vaunted deal he was allegedly happy to quit the EU from if they'd been unable to deliver it.
Corbyn said that he quite liked the EU but he wanted it to offer much stronger worker's protection for instance. But at a time that Macron and Renzi have been pushing "labour reform" (whoever's dreadful idea was that phrase - grates almost as badly as "human rights reform") and Merkel owes so much to the pains of Hartz reforms (not just the economic gains, but the massive damage the SPD inflicted on itself by enacting them), even if Corbyn were Prime Minister, how could he have persuaded Europe to lock itself forever into Corbyn's vision of labour rights?
Farron would like a more liberal Europe, but the liberals (ALDE) are not a strong force in Brussels, so PM Farron would have very limited room to push through a Europe of his choosing.