politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first challenge for the BREXIT team – dealing with buye
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I think he's played a blinder. Didn't thrash his horses to death for a Remain vote a la Labour in Scotland.GIN1138 said:
And why should he. This isn't his fault.Scott_P said:@Hayley_Barlow: "I will not resign" - Jeremy Corbyn interview with @jonsnowC4 - Channel 4 News at 7pm https://t.co/bmuU7ljtu9
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And some people were mocking me when I said in the weeks before the vote that this was going to be horrifically split down socioeconomic lines. It was clear by where the posters were.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.0 -
I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
The split of the Labour vote was always key. And as I confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...0 -
And in the meantime it just looks like business as usual, the banks specifically look like good value and IAG which has earnings in EUR with falling oil prices.SouthamObserver said:
That deal is a while off.MaxPB said:
Oil was down 5% on the day and Sterling is down about about 8% on the day, oil prices won't go up a lot, and we've yet to see what the deal is going to be, if it is EFTA with some restrictions on free movement I expect most of that loss to reverse, some of it has already unwound because the shock has worn off.SouthamObserver said:
And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.David_Evershed said:The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government0 -
It did indeed, and although Dom Raab fought an honourable non factional campaign, he must be one of the very few Tory Leave MPs who were so at odds with the views of their constituents, who voted almost 60-40 to stay.Sean_F said:
I see Elmbridge voted heavily Remain.JohnO said:
No. The Leave vote must be respected not overturned as one promise in an election manifesto.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
Ha! They can campaign all they like but it's likely to be about as effective in general election terms as all that frenetic Labour In for Britain campaigning that we saw over the past week.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
Labour dodged a bullet yesterday - imagine the repercussions for Labour in terms of a fracturing of its remaining support in all the areas that heavily backed Leave yesterday, had Remain prevailed by a whisker. It would be utter folly to ignore that decisive result, although Labour Europhiles are capable of misjudging the public mood in spades.
Labour's best chance now is to accept the result, treat the EU question as settled and also take a position supportive on controls on the movement of labour within the EU, at least for the E European accession countries. That way, it has a chance of moving the political agenda back onto issues where it stands a chance of prevailing. Yesterday showed that C2DEs can still be motivated to vote in large numbers, and Labour's focus should be on channelling their anger into a vote against the economic and social policies of the current government. Any chance of Labour reclaiming the WWC vote will be scuppered by a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
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German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
Suprise suprise0 -
I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.MarqueeMark said:
I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...0 -
Although overall that prize must surely go to Kate Hoey, given that Lambeth had the highest Remain vote (excluding Gib) in the country.JohnO said:
It did indeed, and although Dom Raab fought an honourable non factional campaign, he must be one of the very few Tory Leave MPs who were so at odds with the views of their constituents, who voted almost 60-40 to stay.Sean_F said:
I see Elmbridge voted heavily Remain.JohnO said:
No. The Leave vote must be respected not overturned as one promise in an election manifesto.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
Trump blaming Obama and Clinton for Brexit.0
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No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.Artist said:
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.0 -
May I add my thanks to Mike, TSE, the mods and the all of the thread header writers.
Also a hat tip to Vanilla. I remember the days of frequent continuation threads to relieve demand on the server.
Now PB takes 1000+ comment threads in its stride.
h/t to @Sunil for his round trip to vote
h/t to @CasinoRoyale for above all keeping his faith when the brickbats were flying.
p.s the suggestion to top up on Leave at about 10.30 last night was nice.0 -
Do you think that Labour voters were voting against the EU as an institution or against free movement? I suspect that Blairite MPs would be far more comfortable with policies that restricted immigration than Corbyn would be. Throw in Trident, a bit of flag waving, no truck with terrorists etc and Bob's your uncle.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
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You Little Englander, you ;-)MaxPB said:
I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.MarqueeMark said:
I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...0 -
FWIW I don't object to the result. That's democracy. It is what it is, you live with it and build from there. Could have gone either way. There were good arguments on both sides.
What I strongly object to is the campaign, which was dreadful from start to finish. It was ill informed, negative, full of hyperbole, misinformation and deliberately sowed division. It is irresponsible that what happens next was never worked out. The deal, was not a deal.
Britain is in a bad state today because of the campaign. All those who ran it should (like the PM) take responsibility and consider their position. But first they have to clear up the mess they leave behind. They should certainly not prosper personally.
On and BTW culpability extends outside the UK. Juncker and co should go. This is their defeat just as much as Camerons. They wont of course. Which is kind of the point.
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Stockmarkets
Italy down 12.5%
Spain down 12.3%
France down 8.0%
Japan down 7.9%
Germany down 6.8%
Britain down 3.1%
USA down 2.8%
Who's sorry now?0 -
Or Cameron seeks re-election as Tory leader?MarkHopkins said:
What are the odds on:
* EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.
* Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.
* New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.
* Cameron continues as PM...
?0 -
The Italians?David_Evershed said:Stockmarkets
Italy down 12.5%
Spain down 12.3%
France down 8.0%
Japan down 7.9%
Germany down 6.8%
Britain down 3.1%
USA down 2.8%
Who's sorry now?0 -
That would be the ultimate comeback! Hah.chestnut said:
Or Cameron seeks re-election as Tory leader?MarkHopkins said:
What are the odds on:
* EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.
* Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.
* New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.
* Cameron continues as PM...
?0 -
LOL! He had a "strategy paper" up his sleeve. Maybe February was the time for that, minister.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
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I think only 2 of my cousins voted to remain, everyone else (10) were leavers. The whole of my dad's generation were leave as well. It was Asians what won it!FrancisUrquhart said:
You Little Englander, you ;-)MaxPB said:
I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.MarqueeMark said:
I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...0 -
Interesting difference between the high handed "dont let the door hit you on the way out" attitude of Junker, and the more experienced and diplomatic attitude of someone who actually holds elected office.kle4 said:
But it shows a willingness to bend that was entirely absent until it was too late for us.JosiasJessop said:
"suggesting" covers a multitude of sins.kle4 said:
You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
I find it odd that some people on here place so much trust in the City given they had their pants pulled down by people on here last night. Some people must have lost a fortune.0
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Interesting day. Total meltdown only averted by heavy intervention. Sterling off a cliff. Constitutional crisis. Property market now on a knife edge. Lots of buyers remorse. But Brexit it is, and the EU is going to play very hard ball. It is only day one.
What is the best market for dissolution of current UK in within five years? What prices?0 -
Thankfully this is not an entirely interconnected world. Can you imagine what effect there would be if we exported to countries that were experiencing high levels of uncertainty? Praise the Lord that we are an island totally cut-off from what happens elsewhere.RobD said:
The Italians?David_Evershed said:Stockmarkets
Italy down 12.5%
Spain down 12.3%
France down 8.0%
Japan down 7.9%
Germany down 6.8%
Britain down 3.1%
USA down 2.8%
Who's sorry now?
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The Remain vote is based on a coalition of the most absolutely bankable Labour voters (metropolitan ultra-liberal voters, who will stick with Lab no matter what their stance on the EU) AND the Tory voters who are most off reach for Labour no matter what the circumstances.
By contrast, the white working class (the vulnerable part of Labour's vote in 2015) and the swingier Tory vote in the Midlands and the more blue-collar parts of the South were all Leave. I literally can't think of a worse strategy for Labour than being "the party of Remain" -- they'd probably even be better off pledging to invite ISIS members into their Cabinet.0 -
Really don't like these sorts of posts, sorry to say. We're not here to play beggar-thy-neighbour. Italians, Spanish etc all have pension funds, money worries.David_Evershed said:Stockmarkets
Italy down 12.5%
Spain down 12.3%
France down 8.0%
Japan down 7.9%
Germany down 6.8%
Britain down 3.1%
USA down 2.8%
Who's sorry now?
What we need now is a peaceful land, a quiet people (to borrow a phrase). Stock markets are jittery enough.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, not even considering the possibility we might leave, given some of the polling, was just bloody stupid.0
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On the lower rungs of society the usual tactic is to divide and turn them against each other. It's the same here. Good immigrants vs Bad immigrants. Of course, it helps if you target those who have a vote rather than those who don't. It's deplorable, divide, divide, divide....MaxPB said:
I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.MarqueeMark said:
I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
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It depends on how you define the "Labour vote". If we're definining it in terms of those who voted Labour when the party was actually winning general elections decisively, I would agree with you.MarqueeMark said:
I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
The split of the Labour vote was always key. And as I confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
In terms of those who currently, post 2015, still would vote Labour in a general election, I would disagree with you. That's because as Labour has turned itself into a Europhile party, it has shed support from those hostile to the EU, so the definition of the (remaining) "Labour vote" has become more aligned with support for the EU.
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I wonder, what are your thoughts on the associate member noise we are now hearing.SouthamObserver said:
Thankfully this is not an entirely interconnected world. Can you imagine what effect there would be if we exported to countries that were experiencing high levels of uncertainty? Praise the Lord that we are an island totally cut-off from what happens elsewhere.RobD said:
The Italians?David_Evershed said:Stockmarkets
Italy down 12.5%
Spain down 12.3%
France down 8.0%
Japan down 7.9%
Germany down 6.8%
Britain down 3.1%
USA down 2.8%
Who's sorry now?0 -
quelle surprise,Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
but this is what cameron turned down0 -
GBP collapsed.David_Evershed said:Stockmarkets
Italy down 12.5%
Spain down 12.3%
France down 8.0%
Japan down 7.9%
Germany down 6.8%
Britain down 3.1%
USA down 2.8%
Who's sorry now?0 -
SouthamObserver said:
And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.David_Evershed said:The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government
The EU minimum 5% VAT on home boiler oil can now be removed.
A big saving for rural households.0 -
In fairness, swingback didn't happen. That was a surprise to a lot of people, including yours truly.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, not even considering the possibility we might leave, given some of the polling, was just bloody stupid.
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If he were to manage that, he would be the greatest leader of modern times to come back from this. But he clearly doesn't have the fight in him for that even if it were possible - he went hard and lost, he doesn't have anything left to pull off such incredibleness.chestnut said:
Or Cameron seeks re-election as Tory leader?MarkHopkins said:
What are the odds on:
* EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.
* Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.
* New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.
* Cameron continues as PM...
?0 -
For his 'docking'. Whatever that was.Alanbrooke said:
quelle surprise,Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
but this is what cameron turned down0 -
Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.Danny565 said:
No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.Artist said:
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.
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There is certainly a lot of hostility to eastern european immigration from those with longer established immigrant roots. This is an age-old pattern as communities gradually integrate.Thrak said:
On the lower rungs of society the usual tactic is to divide and turn them against each other. It's the same here. Good immigrants vs Bad immigrants. Of course, it helps if you target those who have a vote rather than those who don't. It's deplorable, divide, divide, divide....MaxPB said:
I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.MarqueeMark said:
I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...0 -
It plays to his narrative of battening down the hatches in a dangerous world, made even more dangerous by out of touch, globalist elites. And the sensible British get it...AndyJS said:
It seems inescapable that Brexit is a huge boost for Trump. He said he wanted it to happen, and said he thought it would happen. Sounded unlikely at the time.RodCrosby said:Trump blaming Obama and Clinton for Brexit.
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No, there's been a change to birthright citizenship in Ireland a few years back, that requires at least one of the parents to be legally present on the island. For people born in Ireland (N & S) prior to that, they and their children are Irish citizens from birth. Children of Irish citizens not born in Ireland can register to become Irish citizens, but only if their parent was an Irish citizen at the time of their birth.RobD said:
I think the rule has recently been changed such that it has to be at least one parent? Could be wrong....SandyRentool said:Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.
My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.
My wife is American, but her father was, unbeknownst to him for many years, an Irish citizen from birth because his mother was born in Northern Ireland. My wife registered as an Irish citizen in her 20s and became an Irish citizen at that point (but not from birth). If we have children they also could be registered as Irish citizens. If she'd had any children before she registered though, they wouldn't be able to become Irish.0 -
York remain 58 leave 42.
We must have more in common with London Scotland than the rest of the north.
Must be the East Coast main line - London - York - Edinburgh0 -
No, it can't. We are still an EU member state. Rural households are also more dependent on cars, which need fuel.David_Evershed said:SouthamObserver said:
And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.David_Evershed said:The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government
The EU minimum 5% VAT on home boiler oil can now be removed.
A big saving for rural households.
0 -
Amazing to think, when the London numbers are factored in, that the Labour Brexit vote outside of London must've been in the 65-75% bracket!
Which leaves London MP Corbyn at odds with his London supporters over Europe but in harmony with his voters around the country.
I can't see how replacing Corbyn with an EU-friendly leader is going to win back the great swathes of supporters around England.
In Scotland it could help, on the other hand.
But all in all, it is a difficult circle to square for Labour. What they need to do is win back middle-ground Tories (capitalising on the great loss of Cameron) and Kippers, and put themselves at odds with the multicultural, liberal London voters.
All very confusing!?0 -
Obama may have won it for Leave.....Luckyguy1983 said:So, can someone take me through the Obama effect again; I'm still not getting it.
0 -
Mr. M, the absence of swingback really surprised me as well. Even though I thought my 60% Remain prediction wouldn't come off (nearer the time) I always thought there'd be swingback.
And, as you said, it just didn't happen.
The British electorate are grandmasters of trolling pollsters.0 -
Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?0
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Does it matter? He is now not doing it, which I think is the sensible thing.Luckyguy1983 said:Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
0 -
Corbyn is not a Eurosceptic because he opposes free movement of people.Fenster said:Amazing to think, when the London numbers are factored in, that the Labour Brexit vote outside of London must've been in the 65-75% bracket!
Which leaves London MP Corbyn at odds with his London supporters over Europe but in harmony with his voters around the country.
I can't see how replacing Corbyn with an EU-friendly leader is going to win back the great swathes of supporters around England.
In Scotland it could help, on the other hand.
But all in all, it is a difficult circle to square for Labour. What they need to do is win back middle-ground Tories (capitalising on the great loss of Cameron) and Kippers, and put themselves at odds with the multicultural, liberal London voters.
All very confusing!?
0 -
Brooke Junior posted his todayLowlander said:BBC reporting huge rise in Irish passport applications, including Unionist areas.
0 -
yeah but hes quitting now so.....Luckyguy1983 said:Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
0 -
Junker, Schmidt, and Tusk (Three of the five EU Presidents) have all said OUT IS OUT.Razedabode said:German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
Suprise suprise0 -
cant see why all NI post offices have the form, you can fill it in and have on in 4 weeksSandyRentool said:Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.
My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.0 -
There is a meeting next week. He said he would do it at that meeting, but that was before he resigned. He will now not do it at that meeting, although it sounds like the other leaders are pressing for itLuckyguy1983 said:Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
0 -
Papers like the Mirror quoted him as saying he'd invoke article 50 immediately...which isn't necessarily day one, though I'd plead guilty to logic chopping.Luckyguy1983 said:Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
0 -
I know next to nothing about Dan Jarvis, but, judging by his Twitter feed, he was enthusiastically cheerleading for Remain -- again, the very fact he was doing that rules him out for me, as it shows how little feel he has for public opinion. If he called something like this so catastrophically wrong, he would do likewise as leader.SouthamObserver said:
Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.Danny565 said:
No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.Artist said:
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.0 -
Andy, your spreadsheet was fantastic. Very well done indeed. Chapeau.AndyJS said:
The only council area in the West Midlands with more than 35% graduates was the only one to vote Remain: Warwick. I was banking on qualifications being one of the main determinants with my spreadsheet so pleased to see it confirmed. Pretty much the same thing with Rushcliffe in the East Midlands.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.
0 -
Corbyn supports free movement of people (within the EU).SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn is not a Eurosceptic because he opposes free movement of people.Fenster said:Amazing to think, when the London numbers are factored in, that the Labour Brexit vote outside of London must've been in the 65-75% bracket!
Which leaves London MP Corbyn at odds with his London supporters over Europe but in harmony with his voters around the country.
I can't see how replacing Corbyn with an EU-friendly leader is going to win back the great swathes of supporters around England.
In Scotland it could help, on the other hand.
But all in all, it is a difficult circle to square for Labour. What they need to do is win back middle-ground Tories (capitalising on the great loss of Cameron) and Kippers, and put themselves at odds with the multicultural, liberal London voters.
All very confusing!?0 -
The point is that neither would they go for Dan Jarvis over Corbyn, if Jarvis was seen as anything other than supportive of the process of giving effect to the UK's exit from the EU.SouthamObserver said:
Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.Danny565 said:
No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.Artist said:
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.
0 -
@DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".
If he holds on till Friday, you can still get 2 on Betfair0 -
The only explicitly anti-EU party won precisely 1 seat 12 months ago and Cameron seemed to carrying all before him. The electorate can be both fickle and illogical in what it does and standing on a pro-EU ticket may be a very different proposition in a year or 2.chestnut said:It would be interesting to see someone map last night's results onto constituencies and see just how badly Labour would get thrashed standing on a pro-EU/pro immigration policy at an election three months from now.
0 -
The Economist claimed a few weeks ago he said he would 'straightaway' invokeLuckyguy1983 said:Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21699969-there-some-dispute-over-mechanics-how-leave-eu-if-it-were-done
It doesn't seem very definitive - I imagine he implied heavily he would invoke right away, but it was one of those things no one really thought would be the case.0 -
LEAVE = free owlsDavid_Evershed said:SouthamObserver said:
And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.David_Evershed said:The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government
The EU minimum 5% VAT on home boiler oil can now be removed.
A big saving for rural households.0 -
So do we all get our £350m British Owls the day after Article 50 or what?0
-
He had their confidence? Well done him.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".
0 -
Yes, it does matter. Because even in resigning, Cameron finds himself incapable of keeping a promise. His career has died as it has lived, as that of an inveterate liar.RobD said:
Does it matter? He is now not doing it, which I think is the sensible thing.Luckyguy1983 said:Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
0 -
I am surprised nobody has mentioned....the end of the tampon tax....0
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I'd imagine associate partner country would be out of the EU.David_Evershed said:
Junker, Schmidt, and Tusk (Three of the five EU Presidents) have all said OUT IS OUT.Razedabode said:German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
Suprise suprise0 -
He discussed it in the SKY program with Faisal Islamkle4 said:The Economist claimed a few weeks ago he said he would 'straightaway' invoke
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21699969-there-some-dispute-over-mechanics-how-leave-eu-if-it-were-done
It doesn't seem very definitive - I imagine he implied heavily he would invoke right away, but it was one of those things no one really thought would be the case.0 -
I remember the quote as "the next morning".John_M said:
Papers like the Mirror quoted him as saying he'd invoke article 50 immediately...which isn't necessarily day one, though I'd plead guilty to logic chopping.Luckyguy1983 said:Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
0 -
EC vs Germany? I know who I'd back.David_Evershed said:
Junker, Scmidt, and Tusk (Three of the five EU Presidents) have all said OUT IS OUT.Razedabode said:German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
Suprise suprise
Reading the European papers has been so informative about the internal bickerings and power struggles in the EU apparatus. It's been genuinely enlightening.
Brexit is important in its own right, but that doesn't mean it can't be used as a cudgel in some seemingly unrelated war.0 -
If you think all metropolitan liberal voters are bankable under Corbyn's shambles you are horribly deludedDanny565 said:The Remain vote is based on a coalition of the most absolutely bankable Labour voters (metropolitan ultra-liberal voters, who will stick with Lab no matter what their stance on the EU) AND the Tory voters who are most off reach for Labour no matter what the circumstances.
By contrast, the white working class (the vulnerable part of Labour's vote in 2015) and the swingier Tory vote in the Midlands and the more blue-collar parts of the South were all Leave. I literally can't think of a worse strategy for Labour than being "the party of Remain" -- they'd probably even be better off pledging to invite ISIS members into their Cabinet.0 -
Will Labour be running the new £3 scheme for the forthcoming leadership election?0
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Sorry I meant metaphorically queueing. Anyway, looks like I don't have the option - thanks to the experts down thread.Alanbrooke said:
cant see why all NI post offices have the form, you can fill it in and have on in 4 weeksSandyRentool said:Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.
My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.0 -
Why would you possibly want to leave your new socialist Utopia?SandyRentool said:Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.
My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.0 -
NoLuckyguy1983 said:Yes, it does matter. Because even in resigning, Cameron finds himself incapable of keeping a promise. His career has died as it has lived, as that of an inveterate liar.
He can't do it now because he has resigned. Had he not resigned, he could have done it "immediately" which is next week at the meeting0 -
The EU will find it impossible to implement its rules in the UK given the time it takes to go to Court.SouthamObserver said:
No, it can't. We are still an EU member state. Rural households are also more dependent on cars, which need fuel.David_Evershed said:SouthamObserver said:
And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.David_Evershed said:The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government
The EU minimum 5% VAT on home boiler oil can now be removed.
A big saving for rural households.0 -
Germans are saying out then associate membership, but not too comfortable.John_M said:
EC vs Germany? I know who I'd back.David_Evershed said:
Junker, Scmidt, and Tusk (Three of the five EU Presidents) have all said OUT IS OUT.Razedabode said:German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
Suprise suprise
Reading the European papers has been so informative about the internal bickerings and power struggles in the EU apparatus. It's been genuinely enlightening.
Brexit is important in its own right, but that doesn't mean it can't be used as a cudgel in some seemingly unrelated war.0 -
All you need to know why Brexit happened is that Cameron resigned, but Juncker, Tusk and Schmidt have not even thought about it.0
-
Tories for Corbyn mobilizing....rottenborough said:Will Labour be running the new £3 scheme for the forthcoming leadership election?
0 -
This is really pathetic. They're just casting around for excuses to avoid confronting that they themselves completely misread the public mood.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".
If he holds on till Friday, you can still get 2 on Betfair
If a leadership contest is triggered in these circumstances, I would go from 3rd-pref'ing him to enthusiastically supporting him this time.0 -
Exactly. The cult of Corbyn is bizarre.SouthamObserver said:
Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.Danny565 said:
No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.Artist said:
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.
0 -
As a professional commercial negotiator of 25 years, I would be smacking my lips and rubbing my hands at the prospect of getting EVERYTHING I wanted from the EU, that I could sell to 70%+ of the UK in a second referendum and settle our relationship with the EU for a generation.Alanbrooke said:
quelle surprise,Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
but this is what cameron turned down0 -
Oh dear, I hope he remembers where he put it. His office looked a bit messy in those pictures, could it have slipped down the back of a desk?Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".
0 -
Well said, Sir. The campaign was a serious low point in British politics. At least the PM was enough of an honourable gentleman to fall on his sword afterwards, a few others need to follow his example.Jonathan said:FWIW I don't object to the result. That's democracy. It is what it is, you live with it and build from there. Could have gone either way. There were good arguments on both sides.
What I strongly object to is the campaign, which was dreadful from start to finish. It was ill informed, negative, full of hyperbole, misinformation and deliberately sowed division. It is irresponsible that what happens next was never worked out. The deal, was not a deal.
Britain is in a bad state today because of the campaign. All those who ran it should (like the PM) take responsibility and consider their position. But first they have to clear up the mess they leave behind. They should certainly not prosper personally.
On and BTW culpability extends outside the UK. Juncker and co should go. This is their defeat just as much as Camerons. They wont of course. Which is kind of the point.0 -
There's nothing like graciousness in victory.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, it does matter. Because even in resigning, Cameron finds himself incapable of keeping a promise. His career has died as it has lived, as that of an inveterate liar.RobD said:
Does it matter? He is now not doing it, which I think is the sensible thing.Luckyguy1983 said:Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
0 -
I see this is all peace and light here. I also see that the usual suspects have been all over the airwaves claiming that basically Labour didnt get the message across and saying more intensity of the same is needed.
When are you idiots going to realise that your core voters in the main are decent BRITISH people who are proud of traditional BRITISH culture who do not want to see that culture destroyed, not because other cultures are inferior.
But because others cultures are different and not their culture and they do not want to be socially engineered, called racist and looked down on but to continue and maintain the BRITISH culture that they inherited from their forefathers who from Peterloo to Waterloo have been a force for good in the world.
Why do you, in particular you people who run and are members of the Labour party, so hate the native British and particularly English proletariat who founded your party and paid with their blood from Tolpuddle to Kennington Park so that you have the right to organise your party and vote?
If Today does not make the penny drop then you are finished and the party of Atlee, Gaitskill and Smith is dead and will never recover.
For the sake of the people of Britain and Europe, get rid of the pernicious and divisive identity politics you aquired in the sixties, stop being colour and every other -ism obsessed and be colour and every other -ism blind treat everyone equally before the law even if it seems inconvenient to do so. Ignore the rabble rousing so called community leaders and listen instead to communities and ditch the Gramascianism and reinstate the Methodism.
Otherwise you, and the ordinary working people are doomed to go back to the elite and the exploited.0 -
Who? Oh the chap who used to run things. Doesn't bind anyone.Alanbrooke said:
quelle surprise,Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
but this is what cameron turned down
Incidentally, I see the leading 12 trade unions have issued a joint statement urging Labour MPs not to seek to topple Corbyn.0 -
If you think I'm part of "the cult of Corbyn", then good luck persuading the 60% who actually voted for him that your guys have the right ideas.Jobabob said:
Exactly. The cult of Corbyn is bizarre.SouthamObserver said:
Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.Danny565 said:
No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.Artist said:
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.0 -
They were voting against both.SouthamObserver said:
Do you think that Labour voters were voting against the EU as an institution or against free movement? I suspect that Blairite MPs would be far more comfortable with policies that restricted immigration than Corbyn would be. Throw in Trident, a bit of flag waving, no truck with terrorists etc and Bob's your uncle.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.0 -
That is Dan Hodges, though.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".
If he holds on till Friday, you can still get 2 on Betfair0 -
Rubbish. A 4pt win nationally effected by hundreds of people who usually don't vote.Danny565 said:
I know next to nothing about Dan Jarvis, but, judging by his Twitter feed, he was enthusiastically cheerleading for Remain -- again, the very fact he was doing that rules him out for me, as it shows how little feel he has for public opinion. If he called something like this so catastrophically wrong, he would do likewise as leader.SouthamObserver said:
Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.Danny565 said:
No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.Artist said:
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.0
