Son back from school with 'atmosphere of despair'. Not okay.
It is a bitter pill that Britain is very divided.
It's even more bitter that the solution is not obvious.
London is on its knees today. Workplaces are like mosques. People are shellshocked. Khan may have a chance here too negotiate some sort of deal with the EU that gives Gtr London a special status – although Lord knows what that looks like.
Scotland will probably leave the UK.
How your area repairs itself (assuming you are in Wales from your user name) I have no idea.
A sad, sad day.
My wife's colleagues in London are in tears, as too is my wife. My sister said that her colleagues at school are just really terrified for the future. I've had so many emails from people who are just devastated....some Tories too.
London...that vibrant, wonderful, progressive, multi cultural, young, dynamic city...the election of Khan was a positive thing, and then this.
People in London voted to leave, as well, you know.
Precious few in inner London.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that London decisively voted Remain and that large parts did so by a landslide. The getters have been overruled by the spenders.
The mood in London is one of open consternation: just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Consternation? Just how could so many little Londoners have been so patronising?
Vince Cable's been on Radio 5 saying that maybe the EU could find a way to incorporate controls on free movement into its principles and then let the British people vote again.
Stick it up your Juncker....not because of being for Remain or Leave....but I am not going through another 6 weeks of that BS.
We wouldn't need to bother with the campaign next time. Just tell people what the new deal is and have the vote.
just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
The genuinely stupid, if they have a voice, need to be convinced by those who know better. Apparently Remain did not do a good enough job, and nor has the EU - most people only know it for the annoying things it does, and grandiose claims. Even if the media is part to blame for that, it and Remainers needed to do a better job. If someone doesn't use your services is it their fault they don't realise what a good thing for them that would be, or did you not sell yourself well enough?
The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
Yes. Exactly this. Khan should make this the driving heart of his mayoralty.
Son back from school with 'atmosphere of despair'. Not okay.
It is a bitter pill that Britain is very divided.
It's even more bitter that the solution is not obvious.
London is on its knees today. Workplaces are like mosques. People are shellshocked. Khan may have a chance here too negotiate some sort of deal with the EU that gives Gtr London a special status – although Lord knows what that looks like.
Scotland will probably leave the UK.
How your area repairs itself (assuming you are in Wales from your user name) I have no idea.
A sad, sad day.
My wife's colleagues in London are in tears, as too is my wife. My sister said that her colleagues at school are just really terrified for the future. I've had so many emails from people who are just devastated....some Tories too.
London...that vibrant, wonderful, progressive, multi cultural, young, dynamic city...the election of Khan was a positive thing, and then this.
People in London voted to leave, as well, you know.
Precious few in inner London.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that London decisively voted Remain and that large parts did so by a landslide. The getters have been overruled by the spenders.
The mood in London is one of open consternation: just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Mr Meeks why not just accept that the decision has been taken and move on with your life? You will be a happier man and live longer the sooner you come to accept this change.
It would be interesting to see someone map last night's results onto constituencies and see just how badly Labour would get thrashed standing on a pro-EU/pro immigration policy at an election three months from now.
it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.
It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
People will mull things over the weekend and I would expect the markets will test new lows at some point next week.
Meanwhile the Euro-markets have been hit at least as much, of course, because of the risk that Brexit leads to the disintegration of the whole EU project...
FTSE100 now trading higher than it was in February when Cameron called the referendum. source Skynews 3.50pm
If you look at the FTSE 100, it's full of US dollar earners: Anglo American, Shell, BP, Rio Tinto, BHP, ARM etc. If the sterling goes down, it is entirely logical they go up.
A better barometer of the extent of the shock is to look at the performance of the banks (don 15% or so), or to look at the FTSE250.
True, but do you really think it is a harbinger of recession?
I think it's very simple. If the UK and the EU come to a rapidly agreed Heads of Terms for Brexit, even if the fine print takes a lot longer, then we'll see a quite limited impact on the economy.
The risk is that we don't have a rapid agreement, in which case we do have a very vulnerable economy given our extremely high current account deficit. At more than 5% of GDP, it's by far the worst of any developed country. If we're not seen a safe have, we'll need to see a fair amount of sterling depreciation to attract capital.
Now, there are those who say "but that's good for exporters", and there's some truth in that. But your electricity, your car, and many other things you need on a day to day basis need to be imported. If people cut back other expenditure to deal with more expensive essentials, then yes, a recession is entirely possible.
It's also worth remembering that the banks are very exposed to the UK property market. We need a house price correction. We don't need a house price crash, which would send savings rates soaring, and leave millions in negative equity. While the risk is only modest, currently, it is worth remembering that there's a lot of new building going on, especially in London. If there are dramatically fewer immigrants, less demand from overseas buyers, then this could lead to very serious rebalancing. I would not be surprised to see prime London property move 50% in real terms in the next five years. (Less that the 60% drop Hong Kong saw from peak to trough.)
That was THE moment for me. And I know Miss Plato was the same.
Cameron stood there smiling while Barry threatened the very people who just a few months earlier had put him there.
And then they just carried on and on and on and on and on... With Project Fear.
Six words had a huge consequence on this Referendum. "Back of the queue" and "Little Englander". Both crass, both guaranteed to wind up those leaning towards Leave.
That was THE moment for me. And I know Miss Plato was the same.
Cameron stood there smiling while Barry threatened the very people who just a few months earlier had put him there.
And then they just carried on and on and on and on and on... With Project Fear.
Six words had a huge consequence on this Referendum. "Back of the queue" and "Little Englander". Both crass, both guaranteed to wind up those leaning towards Leave.
European stock exchanges - AEX (Amsterdam), DAX MDAX SDAX TECDAX (Frankfurt), CAC40 (Paris), BEL20 (Brussels), IBEX (Madrid), SMI SPI (Zurich).. have all lost more than the FTSE100 today
It's a bit more complicated than that; you need to look at constant currency changes. I.e. if you had a pound in the CAC and a pound in the FTSE, you gained back everything you lost in the Euro's appreciation versus Sterling.
I know, and we have fallen by over 5% against almost every currency in the world today. But a fair bit of that is a correction to the pound getting pumped up overnight by traders who thought we were nailed on to remain.
err - the £ was 1.40 to the euro last summer - the slide began pretty well as soon as the referendum was announced. I would not be sanguine we've reached the bottom today.
That BBC tweet appears to be both bad journalism and recklessly irresponsible.
Faisal Islam has also not covered himself in glory (particularly over the Warsi business). Shame there aren't more journalists of Andrew Neil's calibre.
it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.
It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
People will mull things over the weekend and I would expect the markets will test new lows at some point next week.
Meanwhile the Euro-markets have been hit at least as much, of course, because of the risk that Brexit leads to the disintegration of the whole EU project...
Nice spot! Paris, Frankfurt and Brussels all down c.6% and Madrid down 10%. Even the FTSE allshare is only down 3%.
European stock exchanges - AEX (Amsterdam), DAX MDAX SDAX TECDAX (Frankfurt), CAC40 (Paris), BEL20 (Brussels), IBEX (Madrid), SMI SPI (Zurich).. have all lost more than the FTSE100 today
It's a bit more complicated than that; you need to look at constant currency changes. I.e. if you had a pound in the CAC and a pound in the FTSE, you gained back everything you lost in the Euro's appreciation versus Sterling.
I know, and we have fallen by over 5% against almost every currency in the world today. But a fair bit of that is a correction to the pound getting pumped up overnight by traders who thought we were nailed on to remain.
I'm just looking through the FTSE100 changes: the housebuilders have lost a quarter of their value (in Sterling), media companies and airlines 20%, and banks 15%. Oil companies, miners, Rolls Royce, and other non sterling earners (such as SAB Miller) are flat to up. (So down in USD, up in Sterling)
A question for all. Was the decision by Cameron to diverge from the Harold Wilson approach to referendums and become the front man :- a) What lost the referendum because it partly became a vote on himself and b) Made his resignation inevitable if the vote was to LEAVE?
That was THE moment for me. And I know Miss Plato was the same.
Cameron stood there smiling while Barry threatened the very people who just a few months earlier had put him there.
And then they just carried on and on and on and on and on... With Project Fear.
Six words had a huge consequence on this Referendum. "Back of the queue" and "Little Englander". Both crass, both guaranteed to wind up those leaning towards Leave.
Yet both were correct in many ways.
Some leavers just wanted to get wound up by *anything* remainers said. In the end this trait (e.g. sadly by Plato) contributed to me voting remain.
Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.
The 75% turnout rule would be ridiculous, far too high a bar, but the other bit isn't a bad idea (nice it is 'if remain or leave'). No justification for backdating a rule like that though. Might not be a bad idea to bring in for future though - so if we do try to rejoin, then leave, then rejoin again or whatever, that we're really sure this time.
What if the next referendum is below 60%? And the one after that? Come on. You either believe in a democratic process or you don't. A majority is a majority, unequivocally, even by just one vote. I believe in that, the losing side obviously don't.
What I find most heartening is that despite the very many attempts to subvert the democratic process - we voted Leave.
£9m tax payers money on an incredibly biased leaflet, giving concessions on HMG legislation for Remain union campaigning, breaking purdah, allowing Remain to campaign for weeks before the Electoral Commission picked an official Leave team - and on and on and on.
I don't feel at all heartened but I can understand why leavers might be pleased they have just defeated a) the government, b) the establishment and c) a room full of crack secret service operatives each armed with the very latest state-of-the-art india rubber...
European stock exchanges - AEX (Amsterdam), DAX MDAX SDAX TECDAX (Frankfurt), CAC40 (Paris), BEL20 (Brussels), IBEX (Madrid), SMI SPI (Zurich).. have all lost more than the FTSE100 today
It's a bit more complicated than that; you need to look at constant currency changes. I.e. if you had a pound in the CAC and a pound in the FTSE, you gained back everything you lost in the Euro's appreciation versus Sterling.
I know, and we have fallen by over 5% against almost every currency in the world today. But a fair bit of that is a correction to the pound getting pumped up overnight by traders who thought we were nailed on to remain.
err - the £ was 1.40 to the euro last summer - the slide began pretty well as soon as the referendum was announced. I would not be sanguine we've reached the bottom today.
"Congratulations by the way on calling the result."
Who needs the pollsters when you're around? Cheer up, things are never as dark as they seem. I'm sure a few Brexiteers woke up with a feeling of "What have we done?". After 41 years, that's natural.
The old gits remember how we got here and know the dangers are over-egged. Why else would a normally risk-averse demographic vote for change while the weedy kids are peeing themselves? That, and the fact that they've endured ongoing insults for years. It's the old white men that are the problem, remember?
I know it's going to be OK in the end. What worries me is whether what we end up with will be worth all the pain in the meantime. Thinking positively, if Boris, Gove etc do act imaginatively to make our democracy much more vibrant - more devolution, a change in voting system etc - then it will certainly be worth some pain. But I suspect that now they are in charge they will be very happy to keep things as they are. I hope I am wrong.
FTSE100 now trading higher than it was in February when Cameron called the referendum. source Skynews 3.50pm
If you look at the FTSE 100, it's full of US dollar earners: Anglo American, Shell, BP, Rio Tinto, BHP, ARM etc. If the sterling goes down, it is entirely logical they go up.
A better barometer of the extent of the shock is to look at the performance of the banks (don 15% or so), or to look at the FTSE250.
True, but do you really think it is a harbinger of recession?
I think it's very simple. If the UK and the EU come to a rapidly agreed Heads of Terms for Brexit, even if the fine print takes a lot longer, then we'll see a quite limited impact on the economy.
The risk is that we don't have a rapid agreement, in which case we do have a very vulnerable economy given our extremely high current account deficit. At more than 5% of GDP, it's by far the worst of any developed country. If we're not seen a safe have, we'll need to see a fair amount of sterling depreciation to attract capital.
Now, there are those who say "but that's good for exporters", and there's some truth in that. But your electricity, your car, and many other things you need on a day to day basis need to be imported. If people cut back other expenditure to deal with more expensive essentials, then yes, a recession is entirely possible.
It's also worth remembering that the banks are very exposed to the UK property market. We need a house price correction. We don't need a house price crash, which would send savings rates soaring, and leave millions in negative equity. While the risk is only modest, currently, it is worth remembering that there's a lot of new building going on, especially in London. If there are dramatically fewer immigrants, less demand from overseas buyers, then this could lead to very serious rebalancing. I would not be surprised to see prime London property move 50% in real terms in the next five years. (Less that the 60% drop Hong Kong saw from peak to trough.)
British politics is totally fecked right now. Westminster has never been in a weaker position to take on more responsibility. That needs to be sorted out as a matter of urgency.
That completely torpedoed Saint Obama....then they went with Little Englander i.e. you thick racist...brilliant.
It is odd. Professional politicians, opinion forming columnists, you'd think their attempts to persuade others would be almost anything but insulting them. It's almost as if they're all bigoted muppets, but that can't be.
it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.
It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
People will mull things over the weekend and I would expect the markets will test new lows at some point next week.
Meanwhile the Euro-markets have been hit at least as much, of course, because of the risk that Brexit leads to the disintegration of the whole EU project...
Correct - and this is not likely to encourage our European friends to be generous in the negotiations to come.
it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.
It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
People will mull things over the weekend and I would expect the markets will test new lows at some point next week.
Meanwhile the Euro-markets have been hit at least as much, of course, because of the risk that Brexit leads to the disintegration of the whole EU project...
Nice spot! Paris, Frankfurt and Brussels all down c.6% and Madrid down 10%. Even the FTSE allshare is only down 3%.
If you rebase everything to include currency changes, we're not looking so hot.
Is there any data on how the surviving voters from the 75 referendum split? It'd be interesting to see how many of them appear to regret their decision last time.
That was THE moment for me. And I know Miss Plato was the same.
Cameron stood there smiling while Barry threatened the very people who just a few months earlier had put him there.
And then they just carried on and on and on and on and on... With Project Fear.
Six words had a huge consequence on this Referendum. "Back of the queue" and "Little Englander". Both crass, both guaranteed to wind up those leaning towards Leave.
I think you are absolutely correct. It was noticeable that once Cameron took a step back and allowed a slightly less useless Labour-led message to come to the fore, the momentum turned. Remember leave looked like they were walking it a week last Wednesday.
The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
London getting more devolution would mean less money to poor places like Tyneside and Cornwall. No decent progressive can support that.
The mood around Silicon Thames Valley is sepulchral. This vote has knocked the stuffing out of everyone. I don't think Britain will be destroyed by an economic maelstrom (though it might); rather it will be the slow, gnawing retreat into mediocrity and insignificance that will do for us. Dark days. That Leavers are now looking to Donald Trump, of all people, to be their savour merely compounds my gloom.
The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
There'll be a push past devolution towards some form of autonomy for London, I think, as the economic stakes, in terms of its european economic interest and relationships, gradually become clear.
Son back from school with 'atmosphere of despair'. Not okay.
It is a bitter pill that Britain is very divided.
It's even more bitter that the solution is not obvious.
London is on its knees today. Workplaces are like mosques. People are shellshocked. Khan may have a chance here too negotiate some sort of deal with the EU that gives Gtr London a special status – although Lord knows what that looks like.
Scotland will probably leave the UK.
How your area repairs itself (assuming you are in Wales from your user name) I have no idea.
A sad, sad day.
My wife's colleagues in London are in tears, as too is my wife. My sister said that her colleagues at school are just really terrified for the future. I've had so many emails from people who are just devastated....some Tories too.
London...that vibrant, wonderful, progressive, multi cultural, young, dynamic city...the election of Khan was a positive thing, and then this.
People in London voted to leave, as well, you know.
Precious few in inner London.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that London decisively voted Remain and that large parts did so by a landslide. The getters have been overruled by the spenders.
The mood in London is one of open consternation: just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Pretty much sums the mood in London (here at work anyway) - A very very sad day which we will regret further down the line (I have no doubt of that!).
The inability of our side to engage in argument, preferring to look down our noses at the provincials, is what has caused us to lose. Not just over the last two months but the last two decades. I am upset we have lost, but the ugly attitudes from my fellow Remainers makes me ashamed to be associated with them.
Much truth in that. A pity that so many REMAINers prefer to smear and chuck abuse at LEAVErs.
Vince Cable's been on Radio 5 saying that maybe the EU could find a way to incorporate controls on free movement into its principles and then let the British people vote again.
Well at least he's trying to say something sensible.
Agreed. It seems impossible, but that solution would be more likely to satisfy the majority than EEA/EFTA.
Son back from school with 'atmosphere of despair'. Not okay.
It is a bitter pill that Britain is very divided.
It's even more bitter that the solution is not obvious.
London is on its knees today. Workplaces are like mosques. People are shellshocked. Khan may have a chance here too negotiate some sort of deal with the EU that gives Gtr London a special status – although Lord knows what that looks like.
Scotland will probably leave the UK.
How your area repairs itself (assuming you are in Wales from your user name) I have no idea.
A sad, sad day.
My wife's colleagues in London are in tears, as too is my wife. My sister said that her colleagues at school are just really terrified for the future. I've had so many emails from people who are just devastated....some Tories too.
London...that vibrant, wonderful, progressive, multi cultural, young, dynamic city...the election of Khan was a positive thing, and then this.
People in London voted to leave, as well, you know.
Precious few in inner London.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that London decisively voted Remain and that large parts did so by a landslide. The getters have been overruled by the spenders.
The mood in London is one of open consternation: just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Pretty much sums the mood in London (here at work anyway) - A very very sad day which we will regret further down the line (I have no doubt of that!).
Vince Cable's been on Radio 5 saying that maybe the EU could find a way to incorporate controls on free movement into its principles and then let the British people vote again.
Well at least he's trying to say something sensible.
Agreed. It seems impossible, but that solution would be more likely to satisfy the majority than EEA/EFTA.
No. We've got to get out of political union.
EEA/EFTA isn't political union, unless you believe Switzerland is part of the political union.
European stock exchanges - AEX (Amsterdam), DAX MDAX SDAX TECDAX (Frankfurt), CAC40 (Paris), BEL20 (Brussels), IBEX (Madrid), SMI SPI (Zurich).. have all lost more than the FTSE100 today
It's a bit more complicated than that; you need to look at constant currency changes. I.e. if you had a pound in the CAC and a pound in the FTSE, you gained back everything you lost in the Euro's appreciation versus Sterling.
I know, and we have fallen by over 5% against almost every currency in the world today. But a fair bit of that is a correction to the pound getting pumped up overnight by traders who thought we were nailed on to remain.
err - the £ was 1.40 to the euro last summer - the slide began pretty well as soon as the referendum was announced. I would not be sanguine we've reached the bottom today.
Err - it was 1.23 in April. So What?
If you can't spot it I can't be bothered to explain it. Enjoy your victory.
Corbyn is a genius. He's only been in the job for a few months and he's already seen off his first Tory leader.
You could be right. If he sees off this Leadership threat he can use the method of attack as a justification to release a deselection process to remove the blairites.
A question for all. Was the decision by Cameron to diverge from the Harold Wilson approach to referendums and become the front man :- a) What lost the referendum because it partly became a vote on himself and b) Made his resignation inevitable if the vote was to LEAVE?
I think it was to do with timing. He rushed the negotiation and accepted a deal that would be hard to sell (too hard as it turned out). He could have taken another year and used the time to use the levers of government to establish a more conducive environment for a remain vote. I still don't understand why he rushed it. It didn't help that he kept insisting that he would remain PM whilst demanding that the leave campaign say what post-Brexit policy would be.
FTSE100 now trading higher than it was in February when Cameron called the referendum. source Skynews 3.50pm
If you look at the FTSE 100, it's full of US dollar earners: Anglo American, Shell, BP, Rio Tinto, BHP, ARM etc. If the sterling goes down, it is entirely logical they go up.
A better barometer of the extent of the shock is to look at the performance of the banks (don 15% or so), or to look at the FTSE250.
Yep, we do most of our business in US$ so today has been pretty good news for us, at least in the short term.
They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.
Sadly, so are the rest of us.
I mean no disrespect, Alastair, but the boot is rather on the other foot. The cover has been taken off the bed that the powerful made for the weak in our society to lie on - and released a swarm of biting insects.
As far as I can see the powerful are still in charge. And one extremely privileged man is likely to be replaced as PM by another extremely privileged man. Political parties will still be able to govern on 37% of the vote and will still be able to ignore the wishes, needs and aspirations of many of those who voted to Leave. So what exactly has changed, except that we are gong to get a regime change within the establishment?
I agree - very early on in the BBC broadcast last night there was IDS crowing that "unusually" in this referendum every vote counts and none are wasted - and I was left thinking at the shamelessness of it since he and his colleagues are responsible for so many votes being rendered worthless in every other UK national election..
Son back from school with 'atmosphere of despair'. Not okay.
It is a bitter pill that Britain is very divided.
It's even more bitter that the solution is not obvious.
London is on its knees today. Workplaces are like mosques. People are shellshocked. Khan may have a chance here too negotiate some sort of deal with the EU that gives Gtr London a special status – although Lord knows what that looks like.
Scotland will probably leave the UK.
How your area repairs itself (assuming you are in Wales from your user name) I have no idea.
A sad, sad day.
My wife's colleagues in London are in tears, as too is my wife. My sister said that her colleagues at school are just really terrified for the future. I've had so many emails from people who are just devastated....some Tories too.
London...that vibrant, wonderful, progressive, multi cultural, young, dynamic city...the election of Khan was a positive thing, and then this.
People in London voted to leave, as well, you know.
Precious few in inner London.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that London decisively voted Remain and that large parts did so by a landslide. The getters have been overruled by the spenders.
The mood in London is one of open consternation: just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Pretty much sums the mood in London (here at work anyway) - A very very sad day which we will regret further down the line (I have no doubt of that!).
The inability of our side to engage in argument, preferring to look down our noses at the provincials, is what has caused us to lose. Not just over the last two months but the last two decades. I am upset we have lost, but the ugly attitudes from my fellow Remainers makes me ashamed to be associated with them.
Much truth in that. A pity that so many REMAINers prefer to smear and chuck abuse at LEAVErs.
Oh the irony - I think I've seen everything on here now.
Mr. Felix, think we might be talking at cross purposes.
The deal Cameron got was worthless. If that was the very best the EU would offer us, with the risk we might leave, however unlikely that looked, it shows either contempt for the UK, total inflexibility on the EU's part, or both.
I'm just looking through the FTSE100 changes: the housebuilders have lost a quarter of their value (in Sterling), media companies and airlines 20%, and banks 15%. Oil companies, miners, Rolls Royce, and other non sterling earners (such as SAB Miller) are flat to up. (So down in USD, up in Sterling)
Do any of those drops strike you as particularly overdone?
it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.
It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
People will mull things over the weekend and I would expect the markets will test new lows at some point next week.
Meanwhile the Euro-markets have been hit at least as much, of course, because of the risk that Brexit leads to the disintegration of the whole EU project...
Nice spot! Paris, Frankfurt and Brussels all down c.6% and Madrid down 10%. Even the FTSE allshare is only down 3%.
If you rebase everything to include currency changes, we're not looking so hot.
Fair point. Any thoughts on interest rates? I heard someone on R5 speculating on short/medium term rate rises, but I think it might just muddy the (already unclear) waters.
A question for all. Was the decision by Cameron to diverge from the Harold Wilson approach to referendums and become the front man :- a) What lost the referendum because it partly became a vote on himself and b) Made his resignation inevitable if the vote was to LEAVE?
I think it was to do with timing. He rushed the negotiation and accepted a deal that would be hard to sell (too hard as it turned out). He could have taken another year and used the time to use the levers of government to establish a more conducive environment for a remain vote. I still don't understand why he rushed it. It didn't help that he kept insisting that he would remain PM whilst demanding that the leave campaign say what post-Brexit policy would be.
But why did he think he was the right man to be the front man to a vote that needed a very large number of Labour and left leaning votes?
Vince Cable's been on Radio 5 saying that maybe the EU could find a way to incorporate controls on free movement into its principles and then let the British people vote again.
Well at least he's trying to say something sensible.
Agreed. It seems impossible, but that solution would be more likely to satisfy the majority than EEA/EFTA.
No. We've got to get out of political union.
EEA/EFTA isn't political union, unless you believe Switzerland is part of the political union.
Son back from school with 'atmosphere of despair'. Not okay.
It is a bitter pill that Britain is very divided.
It's even more bitter that the solution is not obvious.
London is on its knees today. Workplaces are like mosques. People are shellshocked. Khan may have a chance here too negotiate some sort of deal with the EU that gives Gtr London a special status – although Lord knows what that looks like.
Scotland will probably leave the UK.
How your area repairs itself (assuming you are in Wales from your user name) I have no idea.
A sad, sad day.
My wife's colleagues in London are in tears, as too is my wife. My sister said that her colleagues at school are just really terrified for the future. I've had so many emails from people who are just devastated....some Tories too.
London...that vibrant, wonderful, progressive, multi cultural, young, dynamic city...the election of Khan was a positive thing, and then this.
People in London voted to leave, as well, you know.
Precious few in inner London.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that London decisively voted Remain and that large parts did so by a landslide. The getters have been overruled by the spenders.
The mood in London is one of open consternation: just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Pretty much sums the mood in London (here at work anyway) - A very very sad day which we will regret further down the line (I have no doubt of that!).
The inability of our side to engage in argument, preferring to look down our noses at the provincials, is what has caused us to lose. Not just over the last two months but the last two decades. I am upset we have lost, but the ugly attitudes from my fellow Remainers makes me ashamed to be associated with them.
Much truth in that. A pity that so many REMAINers prefer to smear and chuck abuse at LEAVErs.
But what else did they have? There was no effort to sell the positive case for the EU. Maybe they didn't believe it themselves. Sneering smart-arsery was so much easier.
just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Just how were the hyperintelligensia in London unable to convince all the stupid people?
Because they are stupid themselves and haven't got a clue about in what way. They have no idea how ordinary people think. They have no grip on how this referendum was felt as RELEASE by most people who voted Leave. The "hyperintelligentsia" are just like Daily Mail readers but they munch on focaccia and read Adorno and Bourdieu.
I am so angry that I'd better leave here now for a while to plan my next move. The only good thing is that I made quite a lot of money betting on Leave to win, at an overall price of between 2.5 and 3.
Cheerio everyone. And don't leave more than £75K in any one account
Surely that should be in any one financial institution
I voted Remain, as a big supporter of international co-operation, even though I was disillusioned with the campaign by the end. I would like to join the EU one day, but we need to be realistic that its at least twenty years away, if it ever happens. We have had a great exercise of democracy and that should be celebrated. In the mean time I reject the sour grapes and ugliness of my fellow Remainers. I instead will support policies that understand and address the concerns of Leavers, and to build a more progressive, successful and internationalist independent UK. I encourage my fellow travellers to do the same.
The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
London getting more devolution would mean less money to poor places like Tyneside and Cornwall. No decent progressive can support that.
Greater devolution means greater decision making power, not flooding it with more public money. Has to happen.
it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.
Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.
Miss Plato, the seven(?) stages of grief. First comes denial, then anger and so on. This site is full of it today. The BBC and Sky are perhaps still at stage one as are some on here (though most of those grieving seem to have progressed to stage 2 very quickly).
Llama man, I never thought we'd do it.
Cheers, I'll be opening a bottle tonight
To be honest, Mr. Brookell sipping at it.
That's a fine effort. How far through it are you?
Got to say Mr O, commiserations since I know you were a strong remainer, but it's a fine weekend and a new departure for us all. Common sense will win through.
And down to earth.
I do agree with is pretty much what we have now?
No Mr O I have genuine sense of regret that we got here, while I am a Leaver it's not as if I think everything the EU has done is bad, it has many good points, but on balance for me the bad outweighs the good.
Like most I would have been happy with an outer core relationship with Europe, but Cameron said we couldn't have that and the Innercore were too inflexible in their demand for ever closer Union , so Leave it had to be.
That doesnt of course fix the many weaknesses this country face most of which you and I agree on - though we differ on how best to approach them - but if this forces our business and political elites to re-engage with their workforces and voters it will be a good start.
Completely agree. I guess for a lot of us it was a weighing of the factors rather than raw conviction. If Brexit does lead to a change of style and strategy inside UK businesses, plus a reinvigorated democracy, then it starts to become worthwhile.
If anyone seriously voted for economic carnage because they were miffed at the phrasing of Obama's restatement of US policy, they needs their heads examining.
The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
London getting more devolution would mean less money to poor places like Tyneside and Cornwall. No decent progressive can support that.
Greater devolution means greater decision making power, not flooding it with more public money. Has to happen.
"Congratulations by the way on calling the result."
Who needs the pollsters when you're around? Cheer up, things are never as dark as they seem. I'm sure a few Brexiteers woke up with a feeling of "What have we done?". After 41 years, that's natural.
The old gits remember how we got here and know the dangers are over-egged. Why else would a normally risk-averse demographic vote for change while the weedy kids are peeing themselves? That, and the fact that they've endured ongoing insults for years. It's the old white men that are the problem, remember?
I know it's going to be OK in the end. What worries me is whether what we end up with will be worth all the pain in the meantime. Thinking positively, if Boris, Gove etc do act imaginatively to make our democracy much more vibrant - more devolution, a change in voting system etc - then it will certainly be worth some pain. But I suspect that now they are in charge they will be very happy to keep things as they are. I hope I am wrong.
Yes. I too want to congratulate you on tipping the result. An amazing call.
If anyone seriously voted for economic carnage because they were miffed at the phrasing of Obama's restatement of US policy, they needs their heads examining.
Mr. Felix, think we might be talking at cross purposes.
The deal Cameron got was worthless. If that was the very best the EU would offer us, with the risk we might leave, however unlikely that looked, it shows either contempt for the UK, total inflexibility on the EU's part, or both.
And I get that - but I and presumably Leavers who will be negotiating Brexit are confident that we'll come out with something much better now - because if it is worse wtf was the point of it all? It may be me but you must surely admit now that your side has to have a plan?
I voted Remain, as a big supporter of international co-operation, even though I was disillusioned with the campaign by the end. I would like to join the EU one day, but we need to be realistic that its at least twenty years away, if it ever happens. We have had a great exercise of democracy and that should be celebrated. In the mean time I reject the sour grapes and ugliness of my fellow Remainers. I instead will support policies that understand and address the concerns of Leavers, and to build a more progressive, successful and internationalist independent UK. I encourage my fellow travellers to do the same.
Well done you. We now have to pull together, and use our full national resource to do the best for all in this country.
Much truth in that. A pity that so many REMAINers prefer to smear and chuck abuse at LEAVErs.
And vice versa. I copped a lot and I was going to vote leave. Yet because I had the temerity to challenge leavers when they were factually wrong (e.g. on the claim that the EU had not helped the mobile phone industry) they chucked abuse at me. (*)
(sighs)
Right. That's out my system. Reading this thread, it seems some leavers and remainers are wanting to refight the old battles.
Perhaps we should leave that in the past. We need to move on and work with this decision. Britain can be a greater, more inclusive and happier place. Remainers need to live with the disappointment and leavers need to be magnanimous to the sixteen million people who disagreed. Both sides need each other.
If anyone from the other side gets on your wick, just ignore them. I hope I can ...
Son back from school with 'atmosphere of despair'. Not okay.
It is a bitter pill that Britain is very divided.
It's even more bitter that the solution is not obvious.
London is on its knees today. Workplaces are like mosques. People are shellshocked. Khan may have a chance here too negotiate some sort of deal with the EU that gives Gtr London a special status – although Lord knows what that looks like.
Scotland will probably leave the UK.
How your area repairs itself (assuming you are in Wales from your user name) I have no idea.
A sad, sad day.
My wife's colleagues in London are in tears, as too is my wife. My sister said that her colleagues at school are just really terrified for the future. I've had so many emails from people who are just devastated....some Tories too.
London...that vibrant, wonderful, progressive, multi cultural, young, dynamic city...the election of Khan was a positive thing, and then this.
People in London voted to leave, as well, you know.
Precious few in inner London.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that London decisively voted Remain and that large parts did so by a landslide. The getters have been overruled by the spenders.
The mood in London is one of open consternation: just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Pretty much sums the mood in London (here at work anyway) - A very very sad day which we will regret further down the line (I have no doubt of that!).
The inability of our side to engage in argument, preferring to look down our noses at the provincials, is what has caused us to lose. Not just over the last two months but the last two decades. I am upset we have lost, but the ugly attitudes from my fellow Remainers makes me ashamed to be associated with them.
Much truth in that. A pity that so many REMAINers prefer to smear and chuck abuse at LEAVErs.
But what else did they have? There was no effort to sell the positive case for the EU. Maybe they didn't believe it themselves. Sneering smart-arsery was so much easier.
Quite. If no-one made the positive case for the EU, why did they think we'd vote for it?
Anyone trying to understand why London is different must take account of the fact that nearly 40% of the population was born abroad.
Leavers often love to highlight this fact, but it's not the only key fact. The proportion of those that aren't is also more well-disposed to those that are, than in a number of areas of the rest of the country.
Vince Cable's been on Radio 5 saying that maybe the EU could find a way to incorporate controls on free movement into its principles and then let the British people vote again.
Well at least he's trying to say something sensible.
Agreed. It seems impossible, but that solution would be more likely to satisfy the majority than EEA/EFTA.
No. We've got to get out of political union.
EEA/EFTA isn't political union, unless you believe Switzerland is part of the political union.
It will be interesting how Switzerland resolve their free movement matter. Switzerland's Feb 2014 referendum to have annual quotas for immigrants, requires the Swiss government to implement a quota system within three years. (wikipedia)
I voted Remain, as a big supporter of international co-operation, even though I was disillusioned with the campaign by the end. I would like to join the EU one day, but we need to be realistic that its at least twenty years away, if it ever happens. We have had a great exercise of democracy and that should be celebrated. In the mean time I reject the sour grapes and ugliness of my fellow Remainers. I instead will support policies that understand and address the concerns of Leavers, and to build a more progressive, successful and internationalist independent UK. I encourage my fellow travellers to do the same.
Well done you. We now have to pull together, and use our full national resource to do the best for all in this country.
The first thing we have to do is fix broken Westminster. Brexit was sold on democracy. It would be good to introduce it.
A question for all. Was the decision by Cameron to diverge from the Harold Wilson approach to referendums and become the front man :- a) What lost the referendum because it partly became a vote on himself and b) Made his resignation inevitable if the vote was to LEAVE?
I think it was to do with timing. He rushed the negotiation and accepted a deal that would be hard to sell (too hard as it turned out). He could have taken another year and used the time to use the levers of government to establish a more conducive environment for a remain vote. I still don't understand why he rushed it. It didn't help that he kept insisting that he would remain PM whilst demanding that the leave campaign say what post-Brexit policy would be.
But why did he think he was the right man to be the front man to a vote that needed a very large number of Labour and left leaning votes?
Because he knew he couldn't rely on Corbyn? Just a guess!
How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.
exactly.
I hope 'experts' will stop spouting crap and be a bit more humble. not holding my breath though
You might be wise to wait to see whether they were right or not before tell;ing them to shut up.
We had an "expert currency trader" on here, can't remember his name, who was adamant that Sterling would fall to parity levels with EUR and hit 1.05 with USD. Cicero of this parish also has given some outlandish views of market movements that didn't materialise today, yet he is still her trying to spread doom and gloom.
It will be a bumpy ride, but this nation has been through worse and we will come out stronger and with a better democracy for it. The centre of power has moved one step closer to voters for a very large number of issues and we're no longer under ECJ jurisdiction. That is worth whatever comes out way IMO.
And that is a very fair view. Hopefully, a majority will continue to see it that way too. We are, of course, still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, though, and will be for several more years. If you get the EEA/EFTA deal you want we will be after that as well.
How do we make our democracy better?
We wouldn't be under ECJ jurisdiction. We would instead be under the EFTA court and only for issues relating to trade, not anything else. The ECJ would no longer apply their worldview on our own and we would be able to judge ECHR rulings in our own courts again according to our laws, not the EU/ECJ's fundamental charter.
That was one of the biggest victories last night, we have reclaimed our own laws which suit our way of life.
"Congratulations by the way on calling the result."
Who needs the pollsters when you're around? Cheer up, things are never as dark as they seem. I'm sure a few Brexiteers woke up with a feeling of "What have we done?". After 41 years, that's natural.
The old gits remember how we got here and know the dangers are over-egged. Why else would a normally risk-averse demographic vote for change while the weedy kids are peeing themselves? That, and the fact that they've endured ongoing insults for years. It's the old white men that are the problem, remember?
I know it's going to be OK in the end. What worries me is whether what we end up with will be worth all the pain in the meantime. Thinking positively, if Boris, Gove etc do act imaginatively to make our democracy much more vibrant - more devolution, a change in voting system etc - then it will certainly be worth some pain. But I suspect that now they are in charge they will be very happy to keep things as they are. I hope I am wrong.
Yes. I too want to congratulate you on tipping the result. An amazing call.
Cheers. It always seemed so obvious to me. The one annoying bit is that I got the turnout wrong, so I missed out on a few hundred extra pounds. But, to be honest, I'd rather have lost my entire stake, but I knew that was never on the cards.
@MichaelLCrick: McDonnell tells me Labour would welcome a general Elelction this autumn and expects new PM to call one
I hope everyone got on this
Could Labour stand on a platform not to leave the EU, I wonder?
Interesting idea. Would drastically redraw the political landscape in both directions.
Clever idea. But a successful one? I'm not so sure. If you chose a Tory-friendly ultra-moderate leader like Chuka it might just work. Become the europhile party of the centre, centre-right and centre-left. The Tories might struggle then to stand on a eurosceptic platform, because they'd need lots of working class eurosceptic voters, which don't like voting Tory.
Longshot? Certainly. But maybe not as mad as it sounds, especially as many Leavers are now openly saying they regret voting that way.
It is arguable that Corbyn has achieved a huge amount in a very short time. He's seen off Cameron, he's achieved his dream of Brexit and he's likely gotten a fresh election 4 years early.
Of course that doesn't mean the new election will go well for him. But on his record, he is doing a remarkable job.
Sounds like the French are calling for Le Touquet treaty to be scrapped. Weren't we assured this merely part of Project Doom?
The Mayor of Calais saying the French Government should renegotiate it.
That's interesting and it's hard to see how any renegotiation would not be to their benefit more than ours. After all, they hold the best cards and face the biggest immediate problem.
It'd be best if both sides left it well alone for the moment. The situation is complex enough as it is.
Son back from school with 'atmosphere of despair'. Not okay.
It is a bitter pill that Britain is very divided.
It's even more bitter that the solution is not obvious.
London is on its knees today. Workplaces are like mosques. People are shellshocked. Khan may have a chance here too negotiate some sort of deal with the EU that gives Gtr London a special status – although Lord knows what that looks like.
Scotland will probably leave the UK.
How your area repairs itself (assuming you are in Wales from your user name) I have no idea.
A sad, sad day.
My wife's colleagues in London are in tears, as too is my wife. My sister said that her colleagues at school are just really terrified for the future. I've had so many emails from people who are just devastated....some Tories too.
London...that vibrant, wonderful, progressive, multi cultural, young, dynamic city...the election of Khan was a positive thing, and then this.
People in London voted to leave, as well, you know.
Precious few in inner London.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that London decisively voted Remain and that large parts did so by a landslide. The getters have been overruled by the spenders.
The mood in London is one of open consternation: just how could so many little Englanders have been so stupid?
Pretty much sums the mood in London (here at work anyway) - A very very sad day which we will regret further down the line (I have no doubt of that!).
The inability of our side to engage in argument, preferring to look down our noses at the provincials, is what has caused us to lose. Not just over the last two months but the last two decades. I am upset we have lost, but the ugly attitudes from my fellow Remainers makes me ashamed to be associated with them.
Much truth in that. A pity that so many REMAINers prefer to smear and chuck abuse at LEAVErs.
But what else did they have? There was no effort to sell the positive case for the EU. Maybe they didn't believe it themselves. Sneering smart-arsery was so much easier.
The Labour Remain lady from Mr Geldoff's boat, ended up voting for Leave.
FTSE100 now trading higher than it was in February when Cameron called the referendum. source Skynews 3.50pm
If you look at the FTSE 100, it's full of US dollar earners: Anglo American, Shell, BP, Rio Tinto, BHP, ARM etc. If the sterling goes down, it is entirely logical they go up.
A better barometer of the extent of the shock is to look at the performance of the banks (don 15% or so), or to look at the FTSE250.
Yep, we do most of our business in US$ so today has been pretty good news for us, at least in the short term.
Talking of brave tips – the second part of your "we will vote to Leave" was that we "will never actually leave the EU, because people will very soon regret it".
"Congratulations by the way on calling the result."
Who needs the pollsters when you're around? Cheer up, things are never as dark as they seem. I'm sure a few Brexiteers woke up with a feeling of "What have we done?". After 41 years, that's natural.
The old gits remember how we got here and know the dangers are over-egged. Why else would a normally risk-averse demographic vote for change while the weedy kids are peeing themselves? That, and the fact that they've endured ongoing insults for years. It's the old white men that are the problem, remember?
I know it's going to be OK in the end. What worries me is whether what we end up with will be worth all the pain in the meantime. Thinking positively, if Boris, Gove etc do act imaginatively to make our democracy much more vibrant - more devolution, a change in voting system etc - then it will certainly be worth some pain. But I suspect that now they are in charge they will be very happy to keep things as they are. I hope I am wrong.
Yes. I too want to congratulate you on tipping the result. An amazing call.
Cheers. It always seemed so obvious to me. The one annoying bit is that I got the turnout wrong, so I missed out on a few hundred extra pounds. But, to be honest, I'd rather have lost my entire stake, but I knew that was never on the cards.
It is arguable that Corbyn has achieved a huge amount in a very short time. He's seen off Cameron, he's achieved his dream of Brexit and he's likely gotten a fresh election 4 years early.
Of course that doesn't mean the new election will go well for him. But on his record, he is doing a remarkable job.
And he will lose a vote of confidence among his MPs on Monday.....
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/the-great-european-revolt-is-only-just-getting-started-who-will/
Meanwhile the Euro-markets have been hit at least as much, of course, because of the risk that Brexit leads to the disintegration of the whole EU project...
The risk is that we don't have a rapid agreement, in which case we do have a very vulnerable economy given our extremely high current account deficit. At more than 5% of GDP, it's by far the worst of any developed country. If we're not seen a safe have, we'll need to see a fair amount of sterling depreciation to attract capital.
Now, there are those who say "but that's good for exporters", and there's some truth in that. But your electricity, your car, and many other things you need on a day to day basis need to be imported. If people cut back other expenditure to deal with more expensive essentials, then yes, a recession is entirely possible.
It's also worth remembering that the banks are very exposed to the UK property market. We need a house price correction. We don't need a house price crash, which would send savings rates soaring, and leave millions in negative equity. While the risk is only modest, currently, it is worth remembering that there's a lot of new building going on, especially in London. If there are dramatically fewer immigrants, less demand from overseas buyers, then this could lead to very serious rebalancing. I would not be surprised to see prime London property move 50% in real terms in the next five years. (Less that the 60% drop Hong Kong saw from peak to trough.)
If that was the best deal possibly available, then it reassures me that Leaving is the right decision.
a) What lost the referendum because it partly became a vote on himself and
b) Made his resignation inevitable if the vote was to LEAVE?
Some leavers just wanted to get wound up by *anything* remainers said. In the end this trait (e.g. sadly by Plato) contributed to me voting remain.
Sad.
24 hours to save the opinion polling industry #EURefReturns https://t.co/ei2VGZ9uVn
The deal Cameron got was worthless. If that was the very best the EU would offer us, with the risk we might leave, however unlikely that looked, it shows either contempt for the UK, total inflexibility on the EU's part, or both.
Controlling immigration was only 1/3 of Leave voters' (17% of total voters) biggest priority https://t.co/7neph7eyCZ https://t.co/zO7Kx0Mpj2
Safe European Home -The Clash, for a blast of culture shock?
(sighs)
Right. That's out my system. Reading this thread, it seems some leavers and remainers are wanting to refight the old battles.
Perhaps we should leave that in the past. We need to move on and work with this decision. Britain can be a greater, more inclusive and happier place. Remainers need to live with the disappointment and leavers need to be magnanimous to the sixteen million people who disagreed. Both sides need each other.
If anyone from the other side gets on your wick, just ignore them. I hope I can ...
(*) Or perhaps it was just because it was me ...
@SpiegelPeter: SCOOP: Following #Brexit vote, @DeutscheBoerse & @LSEplc on verge of calling off merger: https://t.co/tvpw0L9yCQ
That was one of the biggest victories last night, we have reclaimed our own laws which suit our way of life.
Clever idea. But a successful one? I'm not so sure. If you chose a Tory-friendly ultra-moderate leader like Chuka it might just work. Become the europhile party of the centre, centre-right and centre-left. The Tories might struggle then to stand on a eurosceptic platform, because they'd need lots of working class eurosceptic voters, which don't like voting Tory.
Longshot? Certainly. But maybe not as mad as it sounds, especially as many Leavers are now openly saying they regret voting that way.
If the EU is insistent on no special deals and a quick timeline, we will likely be offered a menu of one item - Norway.
Can migration controls of some form be enacted in this case? emergency brakes for example?
Of course that doesn't mean the new election will go well for him. But on his record, he is doing a remarkable job.
It'd be best if both sides left it well alone for the moment. The situation is complex enough as it is.
https://twitter.com/blp_1995/status/745977961908678656
Talking of brave tips – the second part of your "we will vote to Leave" was that we "will never actually leave the EU, because people will very soon regret it".
Standing by that too?
Both points were witty and charming, I can assure you.
French government spokesman says UK's decision to leave the European Union will not affect its bilateral immigration treaty with UK #EUref