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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first challenge for the BREXIT team – dealing with buye

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  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    What happened to MI5?

    Pens
    obvious.

    yes. much harder to tippex ojt a cross that would be too obvious.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,892
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Hayley_Barlow: "I will not resign" - Jeremy Corbyn interview with @jonsnowC4 - Channel 4 News at 7pm https://t.co/bmuU7ljtu9

    And why should he. This isn't his fault.
    I think he's played a blinder. Didn't thrash his horses to death for a Remain vote a la Labour in Scotland.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    And some people were mocking me when I said in the weeks before the vote that this was going to be horrifically split down socioeconomic lines. It was clear by where the posters were.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,285
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.

    The split of the Labour vote was always key. And as I confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,236

    MaxPB said:

    The fall in the pound will help

    a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and

    b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government

    And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.

    Oil was down 5% on the day and Sterling is down about about 8% on the day, oil prices won't go up a lot, and we've yet to see what the deal is going to be, if it is EFTA with some restrictions on free movement I expect most of that loss to reverse, some of it has already unwound because the shock has worn off.

    That deal is a while off.

    And in the meantime it just looks like business as usual, the banks specifically look like good value and IAG which has earnings in EUR with falling oil prices.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,310
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    JohnO said:

    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    Straws in the wind

    @Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
    "GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"

    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.
    Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*

    *You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership
    No. The Leave vote must be respected not overturned as one promise in an election manifesto.
    I see Elmbridge voted heavily Remain.
    It did indeed, and although Dom Raab fought an honourable non factional campaign, he must be one of the very few Tory Leave MPs who were so at odds with the views of their constituents, who voted almost 60-40 to stay.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,783
    Scott_P said:

    Straws in the wind

    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    Ha! They can campaign all they like but it's likely to be about as effective in general election terms as all that frenetic Labour In for Britain campaigning that we saw over the past week.

    Labour dodged a bullet yesterday - imagine the repercussions for Labour in terms of a fracturing of its remaining support in all the areas that heavily backed Leave yesterday, had Remain prevailed by a whisker. It would be utter folly to ignore that decisive result, although Labour Europhiles are capable of misjudging the public mood in spades.

    Labour's best chance now is to accept the result, treat the EU question as settled and also take a position supportive on controls on the movement of labour within the EU, at least for the E European accession countries. That way, it has a chance of moving the political agenda back onto issues where it stands a chance of prevailing. Yesterday showed that C2DEs can still be motivated to vote in large numbers, and Labour's focus should be on channelling their anger into a vote against the economic and social policies of the current government. Any chance of Labour reclaiming the WWC vote will be scuppered by a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.


  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    Suprise suprise
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,236

    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.

    The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
    I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    JohnO said:

    Sean_F said:

    JohnO said:

    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    Straws in the wind

    @Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
    "GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"

    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.
    Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*

    *You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership
    No. The Leave vote must be respected not overturned as one promise in an election manifesto.
    I see Elmbridge voted heavily Remain.
    It did indeed, and although Dom Raab fought an honourable non factional campaign, he must be one of the very few Tory Leave MPs who were so at odds with the views of their constituents, who voted almost 60-40 to stay.
    Although overall that prize must surely go to Kate Hoey, given that Lambeth had the highest Remain vote (excluding Gib) in the country.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump blaming Obama and Clinton for Brexit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump blaming Obama and Clinton for Brexit.

    Thanks Obama!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Artist said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    They really, really wouldn't.
    Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.

    They really are irredeemable.
    This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.

    Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
    You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.
    No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.

    Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump blaming Obama and Clinton for Brexit.

    It seems inescapable that Brexit is a huge boost for Trump. He said he wanted it to happen, and said he thought it would happen. Sounded unlikely at the time.
  • May I add my thanks to Mike, TSE, the mods and the all of the thread header writers.

    Also a hat tip to Vanilla. I remember the days of frequent continuation threads to relieve demand on the server.
    Now PB takes 1000+ comment threads in its stride.

    h/t to @Sunil for his round trip to vote
    h/t to @CasinoRoyale for above all keeping his faith when the brickbats were flying.
    p.s the suggestion to top up on Leave at about 10.30 last night was nice.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    Do you think that Labour voters were voting against the EU as an institution or against free movement? I suspect that Blairite MPs would be far more comfortable with policies that restricted immigration than Corbyn would be. Throw in Trident, a bit of flag waving, no truck with terrorists etc and Bob's your uncle.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,176
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.

    The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
    I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.
    You Little Englander, you ;-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited June 2016
    FWIW I don't object to the result. That's democracy. It is what it is, you live with it and build from there. Could have gone either way. There were good arguments on both sides.

    What I strongly object to is the campaign, which was dreadful from start to finish. It was ill informed, negative, full of hyperbole, misinformation and deliberately sowed division. It is irresponsible that what happens next was never worked out. The deal, was not a deal.

    Britain is in a bad state today because of the campaign. All those who ran it should (like the PM) take responsibility and consider their position. But first they have to clear up the mess they leave behind. They should certainly not prosper personally.

    On and BTW culpability extends outside the UK. Juncker and co should go. This is their defeat just as much as Camerons. They wont of course. Which is kind of the point.

  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Stockmarkets

    Italy down 12.5%

    Spain down 12.3%

    France down 8.0%

    Japan down 7.9%

    Germany down 6.8%

    Britain down 3.1%

    USA down 2.8%

    Who's sorry now?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,236
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump blaming Obama and Clinton for Brexit.

    Obama I can sort of understand, but Clinton O don't. Trump out on a limb there methinks.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341


    What are the odds on:

    * EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.

    * Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.

    * New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.

    * Cameron continues as PM...

    ?

    Or Cameron seeks re-election as Tory leader?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564

    Stockmarkets

    Italy down 12.5%

    Spain down 12.3%

    France down 8.0%

    Japan down 7.9%

    Germany down 6.8%

    Britain down 3.1%

    USA down 2.8%

    Who's sorry now?

    The Italians?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    chestnut said:


    What are the odds on:

    * EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.

    * Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.

    * New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.

    * Cameron continues as PM...

    ?

    Or Cameron seeks re-election as Tory leader?
    That would be the ultimate comeback! Hah.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    LOL! He had a "strategy paper" up his sleeve. Maybe February was the time for that, minister.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,600
    Lowlander said:

    BBC reporting huge rise in Irish passport applications, including Unionist areas.

    Presumably from 10-20 a day to a few hundred today. Yawn.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,236

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.

    The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
    I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.
    You Little Englander, you ;-)
    I think only 2 of my cousins voted to remain, everyone else (10) were leavers. The whole of my dad's generation were leave as well. It was Asians what won it!
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Straws in the wind

    @Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
    "GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"

    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.
    "suggesting" covers a multitude of sins.
    But it shows a willingness to bend that was entirely absent until it was too late for us.
    Interesting difference between the high handed "dont let the door hit you on the way out" attitude of Junker, and the more experienced and diplomatic attitude of someone who actually holds elected office.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,824
    I find it odd that some people on here place so much trust in the City given they had their pants pulled down by people on here last night. Some people must have lost a fortune.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,582
    Interesting day. Total meltdown only averted by heavy intervention. Sterling off a cliff. Constitutional crisis. Property market now on a knife edge. Lots of buyers remorse. But Brexit it is, and the EU is going to play very hard ball. It is only day one.

    What is the best market for dissolution of current UK in within five years? What prices?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    RobD said:

    Stockmarkets

    Italy down 12.5%

    Spain down 12.3%

    France down 8.0%

    Japan down 7.9%

    Germany down 6.8%

    Britain down 3.1%

    USA down 2.8%

    Who's sorry now?

    The Italians?

    Thankfully this is not an entirely interconnected world. Can you imagine what effect there would be if we exported to countries that were experiencing high levels of uncertainty? Praise the Lord that we are an island totally cut-off from what happens elsewhere.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    The Remain vote is based on a coalition of the most absolutely bankable Labour voters (metropolitan ultra-liberal voters, who will stick with Lab no matter what their stance on the EU) AND the Tory voters who are most off reach for Labour no matter what the circumstances.

    By contrast, the white working class (the vulnerable part of Labour's vote in 2015) and the swingier Tory vote in the Midlands and the more blue-collar parts of the South were all Leave. I literally can't think of a worse strategy for Labour than being "the party of Remain" -- they'd probably even be better off pledging to invite ISIS members into their Cabinet.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Stockmarkets

    Italy down 12.5%

    Spain down 12.3%

    France down 8.0%

    Japan down 7.9%

    Germany down 6.8%

    Britain down 3.1%

    USA down 2.8%

    Who's sorry now?

    Really don't like these sorts of posts, sorry to say. We're not here to play beggar-thy-neighbour. Italians, Spanish etc all have pension funds, money worries.

    What we need now is a peaceful land, a quiet people (to borrow a phrase). Stock markets are jittery enough.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,693
    Mr. Sandpit, not even considering the possibility we might leave, given some of the polling, was just bloody stupid.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.

    The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
    I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.
    On the lower rungs of society the usual tactic is to divide and turn them against each other. It's the same here. Good immigrants vs Bad immigrants. Of course, it helps if you target those who have a vote rather than those who don't. It's deplorable, divide, divide, divide....
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,783

    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.

    The split of the Labour vote was always key. And as I confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
    It depends on how you define the "Labour vote". If we're definining it in terms of those who voted Labour when the party was actually winning general elections decisively, I would agree with you.

    In terms of those who currently, post 2015, still would vote Labour in a general election, I would disagree with you. That's because as Labour has turned itself into a Europhile party, it has shed support from those hostile to the EU, so the definition of the (remaining) "Labour vote" has become more aligned with support for the EU.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564

    RobD said:

    Stockmarkets

    Italy down 12.5%

    Spain down 12.3%

    France down 8.0%

    Japan down 7.9%

    Germany down 6.8%

    Britain down 3.1%

    USA down 2.8%

    Who's sorry now?

    The Italians?

    Thankfully this is not an entirely interconnected world. Can you imagine what effect there would be if we exported to countries that were experiencing high levels of uncertainty? Praise the Lord that we are an island totally cut-off from what happens elsewhere.

    I wonder, what are your thoughts on the associate member noise we are now hearing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,893
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    quelle surprise,

    but this is what cameron turned down
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,737

    Stockmarkets

    Italy down 12.5%

    Spain down 12.3%

    France down 8.0%

    Japan down 7.9%

    Germany down 6.8%

    Britain down 3.1%

    USA down 2.8%

    Who's sorry now?

    GBP collapsed.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2016

    The fall in the pound will help

    a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and

    b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government

    And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.


    The EU minimum 5% VAT on home boiler oil can now be removed.

    A big saving for rural households.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Mr. Sandpit, not even considering the possibility we might leave, given some of the polling, was just bloody stupid.

    In fairness, swingback didn't happen. That was a surprise to a lot of people, including yours truly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    chestnut said:


    What are the odds on:

    * EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.

    * Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.

    * New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.

    * Cameron continues as PM...

    ?

    Or Cameron seeks re-election as Tory leader?
    If he were to manage that, he would be the greatest leader of modern times to come back from this. But he clearly doesn't have the fight in him for that even if it were possible - he went hard and lost, he doesn't have anything left to pull off such incredibleness.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    quelle surprise,

    but this is what cameron turned down
    For his 'docking'. Whatever that was.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    They really, really wouldn't.
    Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.

    They really are irredeemable.
    This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.

    Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
    You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.
    No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.

    Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.

    Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.

  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Thrak said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    I have been banging on for weeks that the notion that Labour was going to split 70:30 for Remain was bollocks. Certainly outside London, it was inconceivable.

    The split of the Labour vote was always key. And Ias i confidently predicted, was where the polls were horribly wrong...
    I think with non-EU migrants the polls got it completely wrong as well. Loads of plaxes with Asian and African migrants/second generation have swung to Leave. Clearly we're all just xenophobic racists though.
    On the lower rungs of society the usual tactic is to divide and turn them against each other. It's the same here. Good immigrants vs Bad immigrants. Of course, it helps if you target those who have a vote rather than those who don't. It's deplorable, divide, divide, divide....
    There is certainly a lot of hostility to eastern european immigration from those with longer established immigrant roots. This is an age-old pattern as communities gradually integrate.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Trump blaming Obama and Clinton for Brexit.

    It seems inescapable that Brexit is a huge boost for Trump. He said he wanted it to happen, and said he thought it would happen. Sounded unlikely at the time.
    It plays to his narrative of battening down the hatches in a dangerous world, made even more dangerous by out of touch, globalist elites. And the sensible British get it...
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    RobD said:

    Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.

    My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.

    I think the rule has recently been changed such that it has to be at least one parent? Could be wrong....
    No, there's been a change to birthright citizenship in Ireland a few years back, that requires at least one of the parents to be legally present on the island. For people born in Ireland (N & S) prior to that, they and their children are Irish citizens from birth. Children of Irish citizens not born in Ireland can register to become Irish citizens, but only if their parent was an Irish citizen at the time of their birth.

    My wife is American, but her father was, unbeknownst to him for many years, an Irish citizen from birth because his mother was born in Northern Ireland. My wife registered as an Irish citizen in her 20s and became an Irish citizen at that point (but not from birth). If we have children they also could be registered as Irish citizens. If she'd had any children before she registered though, they wouldn't be able to become Irish.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    York remain 58 leave 42.
    We must have more in common with London Scotland than the rest of the north.

    Must be the East Coast main line - London - York - Edinburgh
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054

    The fall in the pound will help

    a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and

    b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government

    And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.


    The EU minimum 5% VAT on home boiler oil can now be removed.

    A big saving for rural households.

    No, it can't. We are still an EU member state. Rural households are also more dependent on cars, which need fuel.

  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Amazing to think, when the London numbers are factored in, that the Labour Brexit vote outside of London must've been in the 65-75% bracket!

    Which leaves London MP Corbyn at odds with his London supporters over Europe but in harmony with his voters around the country.

    I can't see how replacing Corbyn with an EU-friendly leader is going to win back the great swathes of supporters around England.

    In Scotland it could help, on the other hand.

    But all in all, it is a difficult circle to square for Labour. What they need to do is win back middle-ground Tories (capitalising on the great loss of Cameron) and Kippers, and put themselves at odds with the multicultural, liberal London voters.

    All very confusing!?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016

    So, can someone take me through the Obama effect again; I'm still not getting it.

    Obama may have won it for Leave.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,693
    Mr. M, the absence of swingback really surprised me as well. Even though I thought my 60% Remain prediction wouldn't come off (nearer the time) I always thought there'd be swingback.

    And, as you said, it just didn't happen.

    The British electorate are grandmasters of trolling pollsters.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,892
    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564

    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?

    Does it matter? He is now not doing it, which I think is the sensible thing.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Fenster said:

    Amazing to think, when the London numbers are factored in, that the Labour Brexit vote outside of London must've been in the 65-75% bracket!

    Which leaves London MP Corbyn at odds with his London supporters over Europe but in harmony with his voters around the country.

    I can't see how replacing Corbyn with an EU-friendly leader is going to win back the great swathes of supporters around England.

    In Scotland it could help, on the other hand.

    But all in all, it is a difficult circle to square for Labour. What they need to do is win back middle-ground Tories (capitalising on the great loss of Cameron) and Kippers, and put themselves at odds with the multicultural, liberal London voters.

    All very confusing!?

    Corbyn is not a Eurosceptic because he opposes free movement of people.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,893
    Lowlander said:

    BBC reporting huge rise in Irish passport applications, including Unionist areas.

    Brooke Junior posted his today
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?

    yeah but hes quitting now so.....
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2016

    German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    Suprise suprise

    Junker, Schmidt, and Tusk (Three of the five EU Presidents) have all said OUT IS OUT.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,893

    Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.

    My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.

    cant see why all NI post offices have the form, you can fill it in and have on in 4 weeks
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?

    There is a meeting next week. He said he would do it at that meeting, but that was before he resigned. He will now not do it at that meeting, although it sounds like the other leaders are pressing for it
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?

    Papers like the Mirror quoted him as saying he'd invoke article 50 immediately...which isn't necessarily day one, though I'd plead guilty to logic chopping.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016

    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    They really, really wouldn't.
    Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.

    They really are irredeemable.
    This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.

    Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
    You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.
    No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.

    Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.

    Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.

    I know next to nothing about Dan Jarvis, but, judging by his Twitter feed, he was enthusiastically cheerleading for Remain -- again, the very fact he was doing that rules him out for me, as it shows how little feel he has for public opinion. If he called something like this so catastrophically wrong, he would do likewise as leader.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    The only council area in the West Midlands with more than 35% graduates was the only one to vote Remain: Warwick. I was banking on qualifications being one of the main determinants with my spreadsheet so pleased to see it confirmed. Pretty much the same thing with Rushcliffe in the East Midlands.
    Andy, your spreadsheet was fantastic. Very well done indeed. Chapeau. :D
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Fenster said:

    Amazing to think, when the London numbers are factored in, that the Labour Brexit vote outside of London must've been in the 65-75% bracket!

    Which leaves London MP Corbyn at odds with his London supporters over Europe but in harmony with his voters around the country.

    I can't see how replacing Corbyn with an EU-friendly leader is going to win back the great swathes of supporters around England.

    In Scotland it could help, on the other hand.

    But all in all, it is a difficult circle to square for Labour. What they need to do is win back middle-ground Tories (capitalising on the great loss of Cameron) and Kippers, and put themselves at odds with the multicultural, liberal London voters.

    All very confusing!?

    Corbyn is not a Eurosceptic because he opposes free movement of people.

    Corbyn supports free movement of people (within the EU).
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,783

    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    They really, really wouldn't.
    Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.

    They really are irredeemable.
    This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.

    Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
    You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.
    No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.

    Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.

    Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.

    The point is that neither would they go for Dan Jarvis over Corbyn, if Jarvis was seen as anything other than supportive of the process of giving effect to the UK's exit from the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".

    If he holds on till Friday, you can still get 2 on Betfair
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,048
    chestnut said:

    It would be interesting to see someone map last night's results onto constituencies and see just how badly Labour would get thrashed standing on a pro-EU/pro immigration policy at an election three months from now.

    The only explicitly anti-EU party won precisely 1 seat 12 months ago and Cameron seemed to carrying all before him. The electorate can be both fickle and illogical in what it does and standing on a pro-EU ticket may be a very different proposition in a year or 2.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960

    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?

    The Economist claimed a few weeks ago he said he would 'straightaway' invoke

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21699969-there-some-dispute-over-mechanics-how-leave-eu-if-it-were-done

    It doesn't seem very definitive - I imagine he implied heavily he would invoke right away, but it was one of those things no one really thought would be the case.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,737

    The fall in the pound will help

    a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and

    b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government

    And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.


    The EU minimum 5% VAT on home boiler oil can now be removed.

    A big saving for rural households.
    LEAVE = free owls
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    So do we all get our £350m British Owls the day after Article 50 or what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".

    He had their confidence? Well done him.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,892
    RobD said:

    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?

    Does it matter? He is now not doing it, which I think is the sensible thing.
    Yes, it does matter. Because even in resigning, Cameron finds himself incapable of keeping a promise. His career has died as it has lived, as that of an inveterate liar.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,176
    I am surprised nobody has mentioned....the end of the tampon tax....
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116

    German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    Suprise suprise

    Junker, Schmidt, and Tusk (Three of the five EU Presidents) have all said OUT IS OUT.
    I'd imagine associate partner country would be out of the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    The Economist claimed a few weeks ago he said he would 'straightaway' invoke

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21699969-there-some-dispute-over-mechanics-how-leave-eu-if-it-were-done

    It doesn't seem very definitive - I imagine he implied heavily he would invoke right away, but it was one of those things no one really thought would be the case.

    He discussed it in the SKY program with Faisal Islam
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    John_M said:

    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?

    Papers like the Mirror quoted him as saying he'd invoke article 50 immediately...which isn't necessarily day one, though I'd plead guilty to logic chopping.
    I remember the quote as "the next morning".
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    Suprise suprise

    Junker, Scmidt, and Tusk (Three of the five EU Presidents) have all said OUT IS OUT.
    EC vs Germany? I know who I'd back.

    Reading the European papers has been so informative about the internal bickerings and power struggles in the EU apparatus. It's been genuinely enlightening.

    Brexit is important in its own right, but that doesn't mean it can't be used as a cudgel in some seemingly unrelated war.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Danny565 said:

    The Remain vote is based on a coalition of the most absolutely bankable Labour voters (metropolitan ultra-liberal voters, who will stick with Lab no matter what their stance on the EU) AND the Tory voters who are most off reach for Labour no matter what the circumstances.

    By contrast, the white working class (the vulnerable part of Labour's vote in 2015) and the swingier Tory vote in the Midlands and the more blue-collar parts of the South were all Leave. I literally can't think of a worse strategy for Labour than being "the party of Remain" -- they'd probably even be better off pledging to invite ISIS members into their Cabinet.

    If you think all metropolitan liberal voters are bankable under Corbyn's shambles you are horribly deluded
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,528
    Will Labour be running the new £3 scheme for the forthcoming leadership election?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,108

    Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.

    My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.

    cant see why all NI post offices have the form, you can fill it in and have on in 4 weeks
    Sorry I meant metaphorically queueing. Anyway, looks like I don't have the option - thanks to the experts down thread.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487

    Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.

    My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.

    Why would you possibly want to leave your new socialist Utopia?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Yes, it does matter. Because even in resigning, Cameron finds himself incapable of keeping a promise. His career has died as it has lived, as that of an inveterate liar.

    No

    He can't do it now because he has resigned. Had he not resigned, he could have done it "immediately" which is next week at the meeting
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    The fall in the pound will help

    a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and

    b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government

    And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.


    The EU minimum 5% VAT on home boiler oil can now be removed.

    A big saving for rural households.

    No, it can't. We are still an EU member state. Rural households are also more dependent on cars, which need fuel.

    The EU will find it impossible to implement its rules in the UK given the time it takes to go to Court.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    John_M said:

    German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    Suprise suprise

    Junker, Scmidt, and Tusk (Three of the five EU Presidents) have all said OUT IS OUT.
    EC vs Germany? I know who I'd back.

    Reading the European papers has been so informative about the internal bickerings and power struggles in the EU apparatus. It's been genuinely enlightening.

    Brexit is important in its own right, but that doesn't mean it can't be used as a cudgel in some seemingly unrelated war.
    Germans are saying out then associate membership, but not too comfortable.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    All you need to know why Brexit happened is that Cameron resigned, but Juncker, Tusk and Schmidt have not even thought about it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,176

    Will Labour be running the new £3 scheme for the forthcoming leadership election?

    Tories for Corbyn mobilizing....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".

    If he holds on till Friday, you can still get 2 on Betfair

    This is really pathetic. They're just casting around for excuses to avoid confronting that they themselves completely misread the public mood.

    If a leadership contest is triggered in these circumstances, I would go from 3rd-pref'ing him to enthusiastically supporting him this time.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    Freggles said:

    So do we all get our £350m British Owls the day after Article 50 or what?

    Sadly, it's at least two years after article 50 invocation. So sometime in autumn 2018 at the earliest.

    We are still in the EU.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    They really, really wouldn't.
    Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.

    They really are irredeemable.
    This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.

    Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
    You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.
    No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.

    Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.

    Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.

    Exactly. The cult of Corbyn is bizarre.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,285

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    quelle surprise,

    but this is what cameron turned down
    As a professional commercial negotiator of 25 years, I would be smacking my lips and rubbing my hands at the prospect of getting EVERYTHING I wanted from the EU, that I could sell to 70%+ of the UK in a second referendum and settle our relationship with the EU for a generation.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,737
    Freggles said:

    So do we all get our £350m British Owls the day after Article 50 or what?

    Decent British owls, not ruined by immigrant owls like Bolton, or rootless cosmopolitans living on 788-790 Finchley Road.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,892
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".

    Oh dear, I hope he remembers where he put it. His office looked a bit messy in those pictures, could it have slipped down the back of a desk?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Jonathan said:

    FWIW I don't object to the result. That's democracy. It is what it is, you live with it and build from there. Could have gone either way. There were good arguments on both sides.

    What I strongly object to is the campaign, which was dreadful from start to finish. It was ill informed, negative, full of hyperbole, misinformation and deliberately sowed division. It is irresponsible that what happens next was never worked out. The deal, was not a deal.

    Britain is in a bad state today because of the campaign. All those who ran it should (like the PM) take responsibility and consider their position. But first they have to clear up the mess they leave behind. They should certainly not prosper personally.

    On and BTW culpability extends outside the UK. Juncker and co should go. This is their defeat just as much as Camerons. They wont of course. Which is kind of the point.

    Well said, Sir. The campaign was a serious low point in British politics. At least the PM was enough of an honourable gentleman to fall on his sword afterwards, a few others need to follow his example.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,169

    RobD said:

    Can I get something clear and apologies to anyone who answered me already. I understood that Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 on day one. Was this not a 'timetable?'. He is now not doing this. Did he actually say he would do it on day 1?

    Does it matter? He is now not doing it, which I think is the sensible thing.
    Yes, it does matter. Because even in resigning, Cameron finds himself incapable of keeping a promise. His career has died as it has lived, as that of an inveterate liar.
    There's nothing like graciousness in victory.
  • I see this is all peace and light here. I also see that the usual suspects have been all over the airwaves claiming that basically Labour didnt get the message across and saying more intensity of the same is needed.

    When are you idiots going to realise that your core voters in the main are decent BRITISH people who are proud of traditional BRITISH culture who do not want to see that culture destroyed, not because other cultures are inferior.

    But because others cultures are different and not their culture and they do not want to be socially engineered, called racist and looked down on but to continue and maintain the BRITISH culture that they inherited from their forefathers who from Peterloo to Waterloo have been a force for good in the world.

    Why do you, in particular you people who run and are members of the Labour party, so hate the native British and particularly English proletariat who founded your party and paid with their blood from Tolpuddle to Kennington Park so that you have the right to organise your party and vote?

    If Today does not make the penny drop then you are finished and the party of Atlee, Gaitskill and Smith is dead and will never recover.

    For the sake of the people of Britain and Europe, get rid of the pernicious and divisive identity politics you aquired in the sixties, stop being colour and every other -ism obsessed and be colour and every other -ism blind treat everyone equally before the law even if it seems inconvenient to do so. Ignore the rabble rousing so called community leaders and listen instead to communities and ditch the Gramascianism and reinstate the Methodism.

    Otherwise you, and the ordinary working people are doomed to go back to the elite and the exploited.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref

    quelle surprise,

    but this is what cameron turned down
    Who? Oh the chap who used to run things. Doesn't bind anyone.

    Incidentally, I see the leading 12 trade unions have issued a joint statement urging Labour MPs not to seek to topple Corbyn.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jobabob said:

    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    They really, really wouldn't.
    Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.

    They really are irredeemable.
    This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.

    Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
    You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.
    No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.

    Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.

    Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.

    Exactly. The cult of Corbyn is bizarre.
    If you think I'm part of "the cult of Corbyn", then good luck persuading the 60% who actually voted for him that your guys have the right ideas.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Sean_F said:


    I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.

    The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.

    And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.

    I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.

    And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.

    Do you think that Labour voters were voting against the EU as an institution or against free movement? I suspect that Blairite MPs would be far more comfortable with policies that restricted immigration than Corbyn would be. Throw in Trident, a bit of flag waving, no truck with terrorists etc and Bob's your uncle.

    They were voting against both.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Labour source: "Corbyn has now completely lost the confidence of the shadow cabinet".

    If he holds on till Friday, you can still get 2 on Betfair

    That is Dan Hodges, though.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.

    They really, really wouldn't.
    Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.

    They really are irredeemable.
    This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.

    Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.
    You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.
    No, I don't see it at all. Remember, it wasn't just the traditional Labour vote who went Leave - the lower middle class swing vote who decide elections also did. Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Basildon, and all the like -- all Leave landslides.

    Anyone who thinks Labour can afford to write off most of their heartland seats AND most of the traditional marginals, all in some ridiculous hope of winning over Remain voters in true-blue Guildford, Mole Valley and Oxfordshire (all places where Labour didn't come close even in 1997) needs their head examining.

    Anyone who thinks that Labour heartlands and Tory marginals would go for Jeremy Corbyn over someone like Dan Jarvis needs to be certified. Corbyn has no connection at all with either.

    I know next to nothing about Dan Jarvis, but, judging by his Twitter feed, he was enthusiastically cheerleading for Remain -- again, the very fact he was doing that rules him out for me, as it shows how little feel he has for public opinion. If he called something like this so catastrophically wrong, he would do likewise as leader.
    Rubbish. A 4pt win nationally effected by hundreds of people who usually don't vote.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Yorkcity said:

    York remain 58 leave 42.
    We must have more in common with London Scotland than the rest of the north.

    Must be the East Coast main line - London - York - Edinburgh

    York is the Oxford of the north?
This discussion has been closed.