politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first challenge for the BREXIT team – dealing with buye
Comments
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Britain saves Europe once againkle4 said:
You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
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Amazing how quick Germany and France can cobble something together when they need to.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"0 -
"suggesting" covers a multitude of sins.kle4 said:
You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
People from Asia, West Indies and Africa resent being discriminated against by the EU rules on immigration.IanB2 said:
My guess is that a) the class-dimension trumped the London-dimension and b) the difference between the BAME population and the white population wasn't as great as people had speculatedAndyJS said:I'd be interested to know why Remain underperformed expectations in Newham, Hounslow, Greenwich, Slough.
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Cable on Sky pleading that somebody stops and doesn't sign the divorce papers....will of the people, nah stuff em.0
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FWIW this was summary of the day that I've just received from my broker. Mu bold
Following a largely unexpected result in the EU referendum, the FTSE 100 opened the day down 8 per cent. By the end of trading markets had regained some composure with the FTSE 100 ending the day down 2.5 per cent. Europe saw heavier falls particularly in the periphery with Spanish and Italian equities down 11 per cent. In terms of sectors, banks have universally underperformed but encouragingly the Bank of England and European Central Bank have publicly committed to ensuring liquidity to the financial systems. Though there is still a lot of uncertainty and whilst we have next week to navigate, the worst fears of many do not (so far) seem to have been realised. Whilst sterling has fallen 7 per cent against the dollar this is well short of the consensus forecast which predicted a 15 per cent drop on a vote to leave. We have been well positioned for this outcome having previously taken an allocation to the US Dollar. Our existing UK Gilts exposure has also provided diversification. Over the next days, weeks and months we can now focus on the investment opportunities that this outcome has provided.0 -
Not all the time and only for trade. It's a big win.SouthamObserver said:
The EFTA court applies ECJ case law.MaxPB said:
We wouldn't be under ECJ jurisdiction. We would instead be under the EFTA court and only for issues relating to trade, not anything else. The ECJ would no longer apply their worldview on our own and we would be able to judge ECHR rulings in our own courts again according to our laws, not the EU/ECJ's fundamental charter.SouthamObserver said:
And that is a very fair view. Hopefully, a majority will continue to see it that way too. We are, of course, still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, though, and will be for several more years. If you get the EEA/EFTA deal you want we will be after that as well.MaxPB said:
We had an "expert currency trader" on here, can't remember his name, who was adamant that Sterling would fall to parity levels with EUR and hit 1.05 with USD. Cicero of this parish also has given some outlandish views of market movements that didn't materialise today, yet he is still her trying to spread doom and gloom.OllyT said:
You might be wise to wait to see whether they were right or not before tell;ing them to shut up.JennyFreeman said:
exactly.Chelyabinsk said:How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.
I hope 'experts' will stop spouting crap and be a bit more humble. not holding my breath though
It will be a bumpy ride, but this nation has been through worse and we will come out stronger and with a better democracy for it. The centre of power has moved one step closer to voters for a very large number of issues and we're no longer under ECJ jurisdiction. That is worth whatever comes out way IMO.
How do we make our democracy better?
That was one of the biggest victories last night, we have reclaimed our own laws which suit our way of life.0 -
Who though? Are the Three Quid Army going to abandon Corbyn? Is the EU a bigger prize than socialism? Or are the EU and socialism one and the same? In which case, forget the election win....Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
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It just confirms my suspicion - they didn't really want us to remain. They obviously made the same assessment I did, which was it was not good for the EU to have us inside and constantly bickering, even as an associate member, so a crap deal was presented as all that could be had, and we were to be grateful to get it, in the hope we'd leave.John_M said:
Britain saves Europe once againkle4 said:
You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU..0 -
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
Well they can do what we just did if they want to.MaxPB said:
Yes, but that's a different argument, Poland now looks very lonely as a nation against integration.anotherDave said:
Poland didn't just get benefits. Losing a chunk of your educated working age population has negative effects.MaxPB said:
Yes, well we were the main nation standing against EU integration, we took all the heat for it while Poland reaped the benefits while not standing in our corner. With friends like them who needs enemies?MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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FTSE closes UP on the week!!!0
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Yep, the most dynamic and economically successful part of the UK is the part in which there are most immigrants.chestnut said:Anyone trying to understand why London is different must take account of the fact that nearly 40% of the population was born abroad.
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But it shows a willingness to bend that was entirely absent until it was too late for us.JosiasJessop said:
"suggesting" covers a multitude of sins.kle4 said:
You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/744657376561737728David_Evershed said:
People from Asia, West Indies and Africa resent being discriminated against by the EU rules on immigration.IanB2 said:
My guess is that a) the class-dimension trumped the London-dimension and b) the difference between the BAME population and the white population wasn't as great as people had speculatedAndyJS said:I'd be interested to know why Remain underperformed expectations in Newham, Hounslow, Greenwich, Slough.
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Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.0 -
Just think of the SNP seats in ScotlandStark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
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LOL
just got off the phone to my daughter who works in Republic of Ireland.
Big fear is the North asking for a unity referendum and nobody in the Republic wants the North0 -
There would have been an equivalent petition by now had the result been reversed, so Brexiters are just as determined or whingey depending on how you see it.AnneJGP said:
If that petition were implemented, we could end up with an actual neverendum. There's no escape clause if the referendums repeatedly throw up results which don't match the criteria.Jason said:If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215
Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.
But I guess from the date it only went up yesterday or today?
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/remember-that-time-nigel-farage-said-52-48-votes-should-lead-to-second-referendum-5963900/0 -
Markets behave like sheep, they startle easily but soon go back to where they started.Sandpit said:FTSE closes UP on the week!!!
The initial shock has been so much weaker than some were predicting that it is hard to see there will be any long term impact. And of course, that will heavily undermine any future Project Fears.0 -
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.0 -
There is a curious element of sudden appropriation of a kind of politically correct version of "working class solidarity" by essentially middle class regional and rural england, only since the start of this campaign. Very odd. It doesn't permit discussion of the kind of sentiment you've mentioned.Thrak said:Shocking vox pops from Hartlepool on radio 5. Leave voters blaming 'the immigrants ruining the nhs', 'I don't know why I voted leave' etc. To hell with the political correctness here, and I'm happy saying this as I'm from a similar background and know it well, but these people are thick, self destructive, intolerant. I escaped and I never want anything to do with them again; that they can spread that destruction nationally is a sick, sick joke. I don't want them pandered to, I want them to suffer. Not PC I know, but the nice comfy middle class here don't have to deal with them, just needing to use their ignorance from the other end of the country. Shame on you. Get out there and see what you have wrought.
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Asians for Leave did it....definitely in places like Brum.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/744657376561737728David_Evershed said:
People from Asia, West Indies and Africa resent being discriminated against by the EU rules on immigration.IanB2 said:
My guess is that a) the class-dimension trumped the London-dimension and b) the difference between the BAME population and the white population wasn't as great as people had speculatedAndyJS said:I'd be interested to know why Remain underperformed expectations in Newham, Hounslow, Greenwich, Slough.
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Oh, I don't know, Blair just beat him with the Iraq invasion in 2003.Jonathan said:
PMs - after a while they start believing their own bullshit. It always gets them in the end. Cameron was just quicker than most.GIN1138 said:
Yeah but it wasn't supposed to go like that... Wasn't a distraught Downing St, source quoted as saying "This wasn't supposed to happen" at 5am?Jonathan said:So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call.0 -
All the commentators linked it to the uncertainty just as they are now saying the £ has some way down to go as we face maybe 2 years or more of further uncertainty - that is the key word which drives the currency markets especially when your currency is not the dollar or the yen!JonnyJimmy said:
And it was 1.14 in Aug 2013, and 1.24 in Aug 2014. Are you sure the 'slide' was just down to the referendum?felix said:
If you can't spot it I can't be bothered to explain it. Enjoy your victory.JonnyJimmy said:
Err - it was 1.23 in April. So What?felix said:
err - the £ was 1.40 to the euro last summer - the slide began pretty well as soon as the referendum was announced. I would not be sanguine we've reached the bottom today.JonnyJimmy said:
I know, and we have fallen by over 5% against almost every currency in the world today. But a fair bit of that is a correction to the pound getting pumped up overnight by traders who thought we were nailed on to remain.rcs1000 said:
It's a bit more complicated than that; you need to look at constant currency changes. I.e. if you had a pound in the CAC and a pound in the FTSE, you gained back everything you lost in the Euro's appreciation versus Sterling.JonnyJimmy said:European stock exchanges - AEX (Amsterdam), DAX MDAX SDAX TECDAX (Frankfurt), CAC40 (Paris), BEL20 (Brussels), IBEX (Madrid), SMI SPI (Zurich).. have all lost more than the FTSE100 today
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https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/746330414592188416Alanbrooke said:LOL
just got off the phone to my daughter who works in Republic of Ireland.
Big fear is the North asking for a unity referendum and nobody in the Republic wants the North0 -
Not even the SInn Feinners?Alanbrooke said:LOL
just got off the phone to my daughter who works in Republic of Ireland.
Big fear is the North asking for a unity referendum and nobody in the Republic wants the North0 -
I wonder how many immigrants work in the Square Mile.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the most dynamic and economically successful part of the UK is the part in which there are most immigrants.chestnut said:Anyone trying to understand why London is different must take account of the fact that nearly 40% of the population was born abroad.
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For anything that impacts on the Single Market. That can be anything from employment law to intellectual property.MaxPB said:
Not all the time and only for trade. It's a big win.SouthamObserver said:
The EFTA court applies ECJ case law.MaxPB said:
We wouldn't be under ECJ jurisdiction. We would instead be under the EFTA court and only for issues relating to trade, not anything else. The ECJ would no longer apply their worldview on our own and we would be able to judge ECHR rulings in our own courts again according to our laws, not the EU/ECJ's fundamental charter.SouthamObserver said:
And that is a very fair view. Hopefully, a majority will continue to see it that way too. We are, of course, still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, though, and will be for several more years. If you get the EEA/EFTA deal you want we will be after that as well.MaxPB said:
We had an "expert currency trader" on here, can't remember his name, who was adamant that Sterling would fall to parity levels with EUR and hit 1.05 with USD. Cicero of this parish also has given some outlandish views of market movements that didn't materialise today, yet he is still her trying to spread doom and gloom.OllyT said:
You might be wise to wait to see whether they were right or not before tell;ing them to shut up.JennyFreeman said:
exactly.Chelyabinsk said:How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.
I hope 'experts' will stop spouting crap and be a bit more humble. not holding my breath though
It will be a bumpy ride, but this nation has been through worse and we will come out stronger and with a better democracy for it. The centre of power has moved one step closer to voters for a very large number of issues and we're no longer under ECJ jurisdiction. That is worth whatever comes out way IMO.
How do we make our democracy better?
That was one of the biggest victories last night, we have reclaimed our own laws which suit our way of life.
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Shh, that's not the narrative.Sandpit said:FTSE closes UP on the week!!!
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OK. But what about WW3? Is Flanders going to invade Wallonia?Sandpit said:FTSE closes UP on the week!!!
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As someone who voted Leave I have no buyer's remorse whatsoever. My primary reason for voting Leave was because not only could I not name the 28 commissioners nor 5 Presidents but if I didn't like what direction they were taking us in, I could not vote to remove them.
Immigration for me is a minor concern but only because of the impact on Housing, the NHS (especially GP's appointments and Dentist availability), Schools etc. As a middle class, reasonably well off person with offspring who have flown the nest immigration doesn't impact me in the way that it would impact a low-paid or unskilled out of work person and I think that appears to be a significant factor in Leave winning.
Name calling people who have rarely or never voted before because they felt, finally, to get to the polling station shows a total lack of empathy of the feelings of many people in this country. As an ex-Chairman of a Conservative Association I find it incredible that I understand this better than Jezza!
I am an eternal optimist and I believe once the hooha has died down life will go on. The pound will hit about $1.20 before heading in an upward trajectory; we will strike a deal with the EU on trade; an Aussie style points based system will be introduced and the UK will not break up
One last point: The Leave lead was about one million - approximately the same number as voted Leave in Scotland I believe. They may not be at the Euro's but they certainly won this tournament
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A second Scottish independence referendum looks inevitable now. It would surely be impossible for Boris to deny one.0
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Is this the deal which would never be on offer ?Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
To usAlanbrooke said:
Is this the deal which would never be on offer ?Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
Where is Osborne?
His snivelling mug has been noticeably absent since yesterday0 -
If Boris denies the SNP a second referendum they will win every single seat at the next GE, whenever that is held.RobD said:
Just think of the SNP seats in ScotlandStark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
Out of interest, can the Scottish government call an early Scottish Parliament election?
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@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref0
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We have semantically overloaded the word 'immigrant' until it's become completely useless as a signifier.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the most dynamic and economically successful part of the UK is the part in which there are most immigrants.chestnut said:Anyone trying to understand why London is different must take account of the fact that nearly 40% of the population was born abroad.
I know your contention is that those Leavers who are dead set on a dramatic reduction in immigration will be furious, but I think we're just going to have to accept that. Assuming we're not envisaging armed insurrection, the only consequence I can think of is a series of one-term, possible short-lived administrations.
It is unrealistic to expect immigration to come down quickly. I'm not even convinced its desirable in the short term. There's just too much heat and light. We can certainly do much more along the lines of the Tech City model to make sure that London gets what it needs in terms of skills/experience.
We also need to make sure the Migration Impact fund (or whatever they're calling it these days) is beefed up and employed appropriately.
Maybe we need a Minister for Integration or somesuch. Apologies for being a bit incoherent. It's been a long couple of days. 0 -
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
Then they should have offered it three months ago. Too late now.Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
Basically what Cameron could have got without the whole docking malarky. We'll have to see what the costs will be, and what they propose about free movement.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
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I saw a poll once where 25% of Sinn Féin voters in the North preferred to be in the UK. And also polls where a remarkably small percentage of southerners wanted the North to join them. Another titbit is that there is surprisingly little cross-border trade - sorry no numbers, but Irish politicians were commenting on it. It doesn't seem to be very straightforward.kle4 said:
Not even the SInn Feinners?Alanbrooke said:LOL
just got off the phone to my daughter who works in Republic of Ireland.
Big fear is the North asking for a unity referendum and nobody in the Republic wants the North0 -
@britainelects: Expecting some new Scottish independence polls over the next few weeks...SouthamObserver said:If Boris denies the SNP a second referendum they will win every single seat at the next GE, whenever that is held.
Out of interest, can the Scottish government call an early Scottish Parliament election?
They moved the timing after the FTPA0 -
What are the odds on:
* EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.
* Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.
* New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.
* Cameron continues as PM...
?
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a lot. Yo'd be surprised how many Irish-domiciled residents there areJason said:
I wonder how many immigrants work in the Square Mile.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the most dynamic and economically successful part of the UK is the part in which there are most immigrants.chestnut said:Anyone trying to understand why London is different must take account of the fact that nearly 40% of the population was born abroad.
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And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.David_Evershed said:The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government
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Apart from a few in the City of London, they wouldn't. They just wouldn't. The true blue shire Tories care FAR more about keeping their tax bill as low as possible (an issue on which Labour will never outbid the Tories) than they care about staying in the EU.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
Make it senior associate partner country and we've got a deal. Oh, and throw in a company car as well.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
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Can Cam save the Union twice in one premiership?MarkHopkins said:
Odds on:
* EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.
* Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.
* New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.
* Cameron continues as PM...
? 0 -
I've just spent the day with a worried banker. I decided that it would be prudent not to mention that I was a happy Leaver.
And well done to all of those with winning bets on the referendum.0 -
The divide in Labour between the traditionalist eurosceptic left and the pro-business europhile right is irreparable anyway now. The referendum and Corbynistas have seen to that.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.0 -
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If he was facing a Leadsom led Tory party, hell yes.Jobabob said:Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.0 -
Was Cameron asking for it? It seems unsporting to criticise the EU for not offering much at the same time as saying that Cameron's renegotiation was a sham.HurstLlama said:
Then they should have offered it three months ago. Too late now.Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
Sounds pretty nice, I wonder what it would entail - wouldn't be enough to stop the SNP going for a referendum, but enough to prevent Scotland breaking away from rUK? A fine line between retaining enough to please Remainers and not pissing off Leavers.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
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So, can someone take me through the Obama effect again; I'm still not getting it.0
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Exactly... pro-business europhile like Chuka.........Artist said:
You really don't think there are Tory votes for grabs after all this? I don't even think Labour would need to go down the New Labour route to attract Tory voters, just someone safe, inoffensive and competent could be seen as an antidote to a possible Boris led government.Danny565 said:
This London groupthink of "Labour should ignore the will of the people" is coming from exactly the same people who thought it was inconceivable that Leave would win in the first place.brokenwheel said:
Deja vu of Labour's GE loss.Danny565 said:
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
They really are irredeemable.
Very few Labour Leave voters would vote for such a Labour party, while atleast half of the very wealthy Remain vote would prioritise their pocketbooks and still vote Tory even if they agreed with Labour more on the EU.0 -
All the Shire Tories would have voted Leave.Danny565 said:
Apart from a few in the City of London, they wouldn't. They just wouldn't. The true blue shire Tories care FAR more about keeping their tax bill as low as possible (an issue on which Labour will never outbid the Tories) than they care about staying in the EU.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
Still hoping for May....Scott_P said:
If he was facing a Leadsom led Tory party, hell yes.Jobabob said:Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
Glaxo almost at 1500 !0
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Scott_P said:
If he was facing a Leadsom led Tory party, hell yes.Jobabob said:Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership
Aha.... Interesting that the GQ political editor is promoting this very idea on Twitter...0 -
Do you think now would be the right time to pull out of Nato?0
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@Hayley_Barlow: "I will not resign" - Jeremy Corbyn interview with @jonsnowC4 - Channel 4 News at 7pm https://t.co/bmuU7ljtu90
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It will never happen, so I wonder what the value would be at least on such odds.MarkHopkins said:
What are the odds on:
* EU suddenly putting new flexible deal together.
* Tory MPs asking Cameron to stay for now.
* New EU offering goes to public and Remain wins this time.
* Cameron continues as PM...
?0 -
Why? They had one less than two years ago.SouthamObserver said:A second Scottish independence referendum looks inevitable now. It would surely be impossible for Boris to deny one.
The devolution deal is to be implemented and then there would of course be the UK's new, EU blinkers off, global relationship to factor in.0 -
And why should he. This isn't his fault.Scott_P said:@Hayley_Barlow: "I will not resign" - Jeremy Corbyn interview with @jonsnowC4 - Channel 4 News at 7pm https://t.co/bmuU7ljtu9
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I do love the "nhs is full of immigrants" line. The bit of the NHS that is full of immigrants is the staff. Walkround a hospital, you will see the the vast majority of patients are old British people often being cared for by immigrants. The Leave campaign was of course happy to not challange this idea. I still can't get over Farage's interview this morning regarding the £350 million line. I think this will stop either Gove or Boris becoming PM. They will be challenged on it all the time. The picture of the bus will be diaplayed all the time and the question will be "how can we trust you?"RealBritain said:
There is a curious element of sudden appropriation of a kind of politically correct version of "working class solidarity" by essentially middle class regional and rural england, only since the start of this campaign. Very odd. It doesn't permit discussion of the kind of sentiment you've mentioned.Thrak said:Shocking vox pops from Hartlepool on radio 5. Leave voters blaming 'the immigrants ruining the nhs', 'I don't know why I voted leave' etc. To hell with the political correctness here, and I'm happy saying this as I'm from a similar background and know it well, but these people are thick, self destructive, intolerant. I escaped and I never want anything to do with them again; that they can spread that destruction nationally is a sick, sick joke. I don't want them pandered to, I want them to suffer. Not PC I know, but the nice comfy middle class here don't have to deal with them, just needing to use their ignorance from the other end of the country. Shame on you. Get out there and see what you have wrought.
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No. The Leave vote must be respected not overturned as one promise in an election manifesto.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
I was surprised at how lukewarm the Leave vote was in at least some of the Tory Shires - beat Remain by only a few points, below the expected level even herein Wiltshire. Apparently due to middle classness.Stark_Dawning said:
All the Shire Tories would have voted Leave.Danny565 said:
Apart from a few in the City of London, they wouldn't. They just wouldn't. The true blue shire Tories care FAR more about keeping their tax bill as low as possible (an issue on which Labour will never outbid the Tories) than they care about staying in the EU.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
Sounds good. Hopefully we'll have some smart negotiators on our side that can get a good deal (unlike what Cameron actually brought to the table). If Boris is leading the negotiations though....ugh.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
Also I would have thought that George Osborne's political career has also died alongside Cameron's today. It'll be one of the biggest miracles in British politics if this result can kill off Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party as well.0 -
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.0 -
We'll even take a cut in our number of MEP's by half. We'll halve our membership fees and reduce the funding that comes back to us by half. That should stop those who are net beneficiaries from going down the Associate membership route.John_M said:
Make it senior associate partner country and we've got a deal. Oh, and throw in a company car as well.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
All existing trade arrangements stay in place.
Of course, Senior Associate members are not signed up to the free movement of labour. We choose our borders, who comes through them, who gets expelled out of them. The judicary of the Senior Associate members get precedence over any EU laws and judgments. And we can leave the ECHR if our national politicians so decide.
Oh, and we get the use of your wife at weekends....0 -
Trump press conference from Turnberry, earlier
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kb4gC-dDnU0
some kind of disruption at the start...0 -
Just make sure it's not a diesel ...John_M said:
Make it senior associate partner country and we've got a deal. Oh, and throw in a company car as well.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: German finance ministry strategy paper has recommended making the UK an "associated partner country" of the EU following leave vote #EUref
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Circumstances can reasonably be argued to have changed. If the stories of true of yet another rush of SNP supporters, it's already too late to save the Unionchestnut said:
Why? They had one less than two years ago.SouthamObserver said:A second Scottish independence referendum looks inevitable now. It would surely be impossible for Boris to deny one.
The devolution deal is to be implemented and then there would of course be the UK's new, EU blinkers off, global relationship to factor in.0 -
Oil was down 5% on the day and Sterling is down about about 8% on the day, oil prices won't go up a lot, and we've yet to see what the deal is going to be, if it is EFTA with some restrictions on free movement I expect most of that loss to reverse, some of it has already unwound because the shock has worn off.SouthamObserver said:
And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.David_Evershed said:The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government0 -
Was it this guy?SandyRentool said:I've just spent the day with a worried banker.
@SophieWarnes: Bank source not holding back here https://t.co/XGe6q3Qpum0 -
I'd strongly consider it and he'd win a landslide of my Facebook friends.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership
He'd be marmalised by Boris however.0 -
BBC reporting huge rise in Irish passport applications, including Unionist areas.0
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Is it unchangeable? In Catalonia the regional government has used elections as a substitute for referendums, which has to be approved by Madrid.Scott_P said:
@britainelects: Expecting some new Scottish independence polls over the next few weeks...SouthamObserver said:If Boris denies the SNP a second referendum they will win every single seat at the next GE, whenever that is held.
Out of interest, can the Scottish government call an early Scottish Parliament election?
They moved the timing after the FTPA
0 -
Monmouthshire voted Remain - 50.4%. It's probably the wealthiest area in Wales bar Cardiff. Most people round here aren't ideologically anti-EU, it was the Remain campaign that pissed people off, rightly or wrongly.kle4 said:
I was surprised at how lukewarm the Leave vote was in at least some of the Tory Shires - beat Remain by only a few points, below the expected level even herein Wiltshire. Apparently due to middle classness.Stark_Dawning said:
All the Shire Tories would have voted Leave.Danny565 said:
Apart from a few in the City of London, they wouldn't. They just wouldn't. The true blue shire Tories care FAR more about keeping their tax bill as low as possible (an issue on which Labour will never outbid the Tories) than they care about staying in the EU.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
Labour rightwingers completely lost their heads months ago. The last time they plotted a coup was over Syria, where they neglected to notice that most party members supported Jeremy Corbyn on that topic to the hilt.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.0 -
I can see the possession of an Irish passport being something you'd stick on your CV in future.Lowlander said:BBC reporting huge rise in Irish passport applications, including Unionist areas.
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I see Elmbridge voted heavily Remain.JohnO said:
No. The Leave vote must be respected not overturned as one promise in an election manifesto.Jobabob said:
Big question for the Tory Remainers: Would you vote for a Chuka-led centrist Labour party standing on such a ticket?*Stark_Dawning said:
That could be an inspired move. They'd surely get 96% of all the Remainers plus Tribal Labour. We'd be in Blair landslide territory and beyond.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
*You can safely assume in such a scenario that the Corbynites and Momentum group will have been exorcised from anywhere near the leadership0 -
I don't follow these things but I heard Bitcoin values shot up as the pound tanked last night. Flight to safety?0
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The only council area in the West Midlands with more than 35% graduates was the only one to vote Remain: Warwick. I was banking on qualifications being one of the main determinants with my spreadsheet so pleased to see it confirmed. Pretty much the same thing with Rushcliffe in the East Midlands.Sean_F said:
I've just been looking at some details. The North voted more heavily to Leave than the South (excluding London) by 57% to 52%.
The Conservative-voting Stockbroker Belt around London, and down the M3 and M4 favoured Remain.
And just look at how many Labour heartland authorities voted to Leave, sometimes by huge margins; Sheffield, Wigan, Rotherham, Barnsley, South Tyneside, Luton, Sunderland, Birmingham, Middlesborough, Warrington, Wolverhampton, Doncaster, Sandwell, Wakefield, Kirklees, Durham, Mansfield (70%!), the South Wales Valleys. Places that have been voting Labour since the 1920's often.
I wouldn't be surprised if most Labour supporters outside Greater London and Scotland voted Leave. I suspect that while Conservatives favoured Leave more than Labour supporters, the differential was smaller than polls were showing. I think Labour Leave won this.
And, that goes to show how daft Blairite MPs are to wish to overthrow Corbyn on the one issue where he's closer to public opinion than they are.0 -
Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.
My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.0 -
It is a minority and those from such areas knew who they were (much less so now with our atomised society compared to 20/30 years ago). Often along the old divide between the working poor and what would become the underclass. Those supposedly cuddly grandmothers now, in the seventies would be regularly heard berating the blacks and Pakis, the phrase ' Enoch was right' being particularly common. Strangely intiolerant of some 'scroungers' who were to others who were just 'on the dole' (I think the difference was to do with entitlement). When they'd had a few drinks, well, steer clear. Dark times, best forgotten.RealBritain said:
There is a curious element of sudden appropriation of a kind of politically correct version of "working class solidarity" by essentially middle class regional and rural england, only since the start of this campaign. Very odd. It doesn't permit discussion of the kind of sentiment you've mentioned.Thrak said:Shocking vox pops from Hartlepool on radio 5. Leave voters blaming 'the immigrants ruining the nhs', 'I don't know why I voted leave' etc. To hell with the political correctness here, and I'm happy saying this as I'm from a similar background and know it well, but these people are thick, self destructive, intolerant. I escaped and I never want anything to do with them again; that they can spread that destruction nationally is a sick, sick joke. I don't want them pandered to, I want them to suffer. Not PC I know, but the nice comfy middle class here don't have to deal with them, just needing to use their ignorance from the other end of the country. Shame on you. Get out there and see what you have wrought.
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Fog in the English Channel.
Continent Cut Off.0 -
That deal is a while off.MaxPB said:
Oil was down 5% on the day and Sterling is down about about 8% on the day, oil prices won't go up a lot, and we've yet to see what the deal is going to be, if it is EFTA with some restrictions on free movement I expect most of that loss to reverse, some of it has already unwound because the shock has worn off.SouthamObserver said:
And c) put up prices, especially those relating to fuel.David_Evershed said:The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government
0 -
They're winging it now, shitting themselves that democracy and self-determination might start spreading around the other 27 countries.kle4 said:
You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
It's clear that no-one in the EU or our own govt saw this coming.0 -
I think the rule has recently been changed such that it has to be at least one parent? Could be wrong....SandyRentool said:Ulster Prods queueing up for Irish passports, apparently.
My granddad was Irish - maybe I should join the queue.0
