politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s finding You Can’t Always Get What EU Want
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Lewisham has just declared with Remain at 70%.
Where did that Lewisham 83% Remain story originate five hours ago ?
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Someone is going to make a fortune out of this.murali_s said:FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.
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Maybe it's very close in Redbridge.Sunil_Prasannan said:Still waiting for my home patch Redbridge, but gotta get some sleep!
Laters,
"Today we celebrate our Independence Day!"0 -
REMAIN folk carrying on project fear on all 3 tv channels. They lost and were wrong about the voters, so STFU.0
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Gisela Stuart switches to broken German in her speech.0
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Whatever the reasons that caused so many people to vote to Leave, the most significant result is that we have (hopefully - cannot yet take it for granted) preserved democracy for our offspring. If they don't like what their government does, they will be able to vote it out & replace it with one more in tune with their needs.kle4 said:I'm a bit glum and serious at the moment. Granted I've been up for 24 hours, but I've always been able to eschew any responsibility for anything not going well by voting for losers. Despite all my arguments, I hope it was clear I thought long and hard about what to do, and even when voting I took a good 20 seconds to really consider my options, apparently I didn't really believe Leave would win as I feel a little shell shocked, and now have nowhere to hide should things go poorly, which given the people about to take over as PM at a time of turmoil, will certainly occur in the short term at least. Sobering.
But likely for the best in the long run - the EU wants things we don't, it's irreconcilable.
And let's hope that, as a corollary, our current political parties take a good hard look at why the non-voters & reluctant voters were prepared to turn out for this.0 -
I am not a right wing Tory. I have no say in what happens next. All I can do is carry on doing the best I can for the company I work at and its employees.nunu said:
But why can't you work with us to make a better country instead of sniping from the sidelines.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the people have spoken. It is now encumbent on Leave to deliver on the promises they've made.nunu said:
It really is. Ignore the people at your peril. There was anelection and now we have a result.rottenborough said:BBC now saying it's democracy. I'm sorry but that is bollocks.
This could actually be good for progressive politics because the establishment tried to scare the shit out of everyone saying change is bad, and you can't ever change anything, the same thing the Tories always do to the left and in particular Labour at every GE and the public often buy it. But now you have an example where people can overcome fear and make their own minds up.
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More than anything else — what a misjudgement by the Establishment.0
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Presumably Cameron will wait for the final results before announcing Gove is now chancellor and a leadership contest will be held as soon as possible?
What a year he's had - the highest highs, and now the lowest lows. Master of all he surveys to presumably quitting parliament itself in a few months (cannot see him sticking around).0 -
Posted this mid afternoon yesterday:
"Sod it, just for the hell of it I'll put my prediction out there, fully expecting to be completely, laughably wrong:
Leave to win by 50.9% to 49.1% after a few back-of-the-envelope calculations.
Turnout 71% "
Not that far out, after all! Still, got to hand it to @SouthamObserver for consistently predicting a Leave win. A man worth listening to, obviously.
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Gisela Stuart: Britain is an open, welcoming society.
you must be joking, it was fought on immigrants not banana regulations
Now calling for calm. Good look0 -
murali_s said:
FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.
Just traders closing the long positions they foolishly took.
Many FTSE companies primarily overseas companies.
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Gisela very very good.
So much better than the Farage gloating.
Corbyn chickened out by putting her up to speak - but in many ways it was an apt decision.0 -
If she would do it, Gisella Stuart should be in the Cabinet. Frank Field too.anotherDave said:
I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.David_Evershed said:New Cabinet
PM - Johnson
Chancellor - Gove
Business - Ledsome
Home - Grayling
Foreign - Hammond0 -
Good speech from Gisella, modest and calm.0
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Yes. Well done !LucyJones said:Posted this mid afternoon yesterday:
"Sod it, just for the hell of it I'll put my prediction out there, fully expecting to be completely, laughably wrong:
Leave to win by 50.9% to 49.1% after a few back-of-the-envelope calculations.
Turnout 71% "
Not that far out, after all! Still, got to hand it to @SouthamObserver for consistently predicting a Leave win. A man worth listening to, obviously.0 -
"Gordon was a moron". This country is run by hypocritical arrogant idiots. They missed the chance of uniting with France in 1956. They preferred to run with the "Five Eyes" treaty with the US, that eventually they admitted the existence of in 2005, if I recall correctly. The text still hasn't been published. Then the eventually got themselves into the EEC which became the EU.GIN1138 said:So I guess the Euro really is off the table now?
Then they positioned some "really expert at economics" history graduate in Number Ten to tell people there was five years of testing required before a decision on the euro could be taken. That played well with the sort of people who think Carol Vorderman is a mathematician. Oh, all the cycles were out of sync, he said. Never mind that countries like Italy, for goodness sake, managed to join the eurozone.
Then they sat around going to the Epsom Derby and Goodwood and Glyndebourne telling each other how clever they were, ignoring the message that the British people kept sending them by voting in ever larger numbers for UKIP in EU elections.
Now look what's happened.
Never have the jaws of the dustbin of history opened so wide. But will they jump in? Will they get pushed in? Hell, no!
Fortunes must have been made in the past few hours, and are still being made - multibillion pound fortunes - as the British economy, largely valued in pounds, gets a big chunk knocked off its value.0 -
Government of national unity?Mortimer said:
If she would do it, Gisella Stuart should be in the Cabinet. Frank Field too.anotherDave said:
I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.David_Evershed said:New Cabinet
PM - Johnson
Chancellor - Gove
Business - Ledsome
Home - Grayling
Foreign - Hammond0 -
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This is a great post. Thank you.AnneJGP said:
Whatever the reasons that caused so many people to vote to Leave, the most significant result is that we have (hopefully - cannot yet take it for granted) preserved democracy for our offspring. If they don't like what their government does, they will be able to vote it out & replace it with one more in tune with their needs.kle4 said:I'm a bit glum and serious at the moment. Granted I've been up for 24 hours, but I've always been able to eschew any responsibility for anything not going well by voting for losers. Despite all my arguments, I hope it was clear I thought long and hard about what to do, and even when voting I took a good 20 seconds to really consider my options, apparently I didn't really believe Leave would win as I feel a little shell shocked, and now have nowhere to hide should things go poorly, which given the people about to take over as PM at a time of turmoil, will certainly occur in the short term at least. Sobering.
But likely for the best in the long run - the EU wants things we don't, it's irreconcilable.
And let's hope that, as a corollary, our current political parties take a good hard look at why the non-voters & reluctant voters were prepared to turn out for this.
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She was representing the Leave campaign. It was pre-arranged. It had nothing to do with Corbyn.MyBurningEars said:Gisela very very good.
So much better than the Farage gloating.
Corbyn chickened out by putting her up to speak - but in many ways it was an apt decision.0 -
South Kesteven 59.9% LEAVE.
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FTSE can close 19% down and most of Britain won't care. Most of Britain don't have pensions now, so the market doesn't matter to them.David_Evershed said:murali_s said:FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.
Just traders closing the long positions they foolishly took.
Many FTSE companies primarily overseas companies.0 -
I'll buy everyday of the week.murali_s said:FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.
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Just want to thank TSE et al. for the dramatic and brilliant coverage throughout the night. Fantastic work from this site, keep up the good work.0
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Yes, but not 19%.SouthamObserver said:0 -
We warned them, we warned them again and again. For better or worse, this is what happens when politicans disconnect with people0
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I am even more glad, now, that you made it in time to vote, SO. I was glad at the time, even though I thought then it that Remain would win by a good margin.SouthamObserver said:
I haven't been on the winning side since 2005!kle4 said:I'm a bit glum and serious at the moment. Granted I've been up for 24 hours, but I've always been able to eschew any responsibility for anything not going well by voting for losers. Despite all my arguments, I hope it was clear I thought long and hard about what to do, and even when voting I took a good 20 seconds to really consider my options, apparently I didn't really believe Leave would win as I feel a little shell shocked, and now have nowhere to hide should things go poorly, which given the people about to take over as PM at a time of turmoil, will certainly occur in the short term at least. Sobering.
But likely for the best in the long run - the EU wants things we don't, it's irreconcilable.
You are right that Leave owns what happens now, but you made an honest, heartfelt decision. That is a good thing.0 -
No. Nobody is going to STFU. Leaving will take years and involve myriad profound choices. You are going to listen to little else.TCPoliticalBetting said:REMAIN folk carrying on project fear on all 3 tv channels. They lost and were wrong about the voters, so STFU.
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John_N4 said:
"Gordon was a moron". This country is run by hypocritical arrogant idiots. They missed the chance of uniting with France in 1956. They preferred to run with the "Five Eyes" treaty with the US, that eventually they admitted the existence of in 2005, if I recall correctly. The text still hasn't been published. Then the eventually got themselves into the EEC which became the EU.GIN1138 said:So I guess the Euro really is off the table now?
Then they positioned some "really expert at economics" history graduate in Number Ten to tell people there was five years of testing required before a decision on the euro could be taken. That played well with the sort of people who think Carol Vorderman is a mathematician. Oh, all the cycles were out of sync, he said. Never mind that countries like Italy, for goodness sake, managed to join the eurozone.
Then they sat around going to the Epsom Derby and Goodwood and Glyndebourne telling each other how clever they were, ignoring the message the British people kept sending them by voting in ever larger numbers for UKIP in EU elections.
Now look what's happening.
Fortunes must have been made in the past few hours, as the British economy, largely valued in pounds, is getting a big chunk knocked off its value.
Harold Wilson said the pound in your pocket is not devalued.
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Accounting for the fall in GBP, in dollar terms, shares are forecast about 20 per cent down now.SouthamObserver said:0 -
TCPoliticalBetting said:
Good speech from Gisella, modest and calm.
Gisella should defo be on the negotiating team.
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Would be a wonderful display of connecting with more of the voters people, as would including some Inners.williamglenn said:
Government of national unity?Mortimer said:
If she would do it, Gisella Stuart should be in the Cabinet. Frank Field too.anotherDave said:
I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.David_Evershed said:New Cabinet
PM - Johnson
Chancellor - Gove
Business - Ledsome
Home - Grayling
Foreign - Hammond0 -
Sky correspondent literally in tears giving the financial news.0
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Obviously the queen's intervention in the referendum isn't thought to be interesting by all the politico types here. Sorry to bore you all. Goodnight all. I'm going to relax away from the screen before taking in the final result.0
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You guys are in charge now, you don't get to tell the other side to shut the f*ck up, you have to make it work.TCPoliticalBetting said:REMAIN folk carrying on project fear on all 3 tv channels. They lost and were wrong about the voters, so STFU.
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Gisela Stuart was in the UK team negotiating the EU Constitution, so she'd be a good addition to the EU negotiation team now.williamglenn said:
Government of national unity?Mortimer said:
If she would do it, Gisella Stuart should be in the Cabinet. Frank Field too.anotherDave said:
I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.David_Evershed said:New Cabinet
PM - Johnson
Chancellor - Gove
Business - Ledsome
Home - Grayling
Foreign - Hammond
Leadsom-Stuart leading the EU negotiation.0 -
Anna Soubry: "It's a dreadful decision".0
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A new hospital every week.0
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All they are doing now is talking Britain down. Their parties will suffer.TCPoliticalBetting said:REMAIN folk carrying on project fear on all 3 tv channels. They lost and were wrong about the voters, so STFU.
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AndyJS said:
More than anything else — what a misjudgement by the Establishment.
That'll be the former establishment.
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Their goal is blame others for our problems. Our problems are about to get worse. They'll not be going out of business.AndyJS said:Does UKIP disband now? They've achieved their goal.
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Possible the news broadcasts had this wrong - but it was billed that, by arrangement with Corbyn, she would get to make the first Labour statement if Leave won, Corbyn would presumably have spoken if Remain won.surbiton said:
She was representing the Leave campaign. It was pre-arranged. It had nothing to do with Corbyn.MyBurningEars said:Gisela very very good.
So much better than the Farage gloating.
Corbyn chickened out by putting her up to speak - but in many ways it was an apt decision.
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I presume murali was referring to ideas as to early movement. Need to wait and see just how jittery people are.MaxPB said:
Yes, but not 19%.SouthamObserver said:
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There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"
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They can blame the EU for not caving to every British demand on its way out.YellowSubmarine said:
Their goal is blame others for our problems. Our problems are about to get worse. They'll not be going out of business.AndyJS said:Does UKIP disband now? They've achieved their goal.
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Relax, guys. Nothing in the last year and a bit has actually happened.
1) People who believe in a Conservative majority are "fantasists"
2) Voters don't care about the EU
3) New Labour is here to stay
4) Jack W's ARSE is never wrong.
I for one wish Prime Minister Miliband well in his negotiations in the next EU summit.0 -
Ditto.Pauly said:Just want to thank TSE et al. for the dramatic and brilliant coverage throughout the night. Fantastic work from this site, keep up the good work.
PB anecdota has beaten the 'experts' in the media, pollsters, City and politics.
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Silly season on my fb feed - some very tired and emotional people, and they've only just woken up.0
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Well, they'll be disabused of that notion soon enough if it does,Lowlander said:
FTSE can close 19% down and most of Britain won't care. Most of Britain don't have pensions now, so the market doesn't matter to them.David_Evershed said:murali_s said:FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.
Just traders closing the long positions they foolishly took.
Many FTSE companies primarily overseas companies.
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It's not ok to talk about racism, but it is ok to say the rootless cosmopolitans are ignorant?another_richard said:There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"
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Super. Great news for pensions.EPG said:
Accounting for the fall in GBP, in dollar terms, shares are forecast about 20 per cent down now.SouthamObserver said:
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How that woman became a government minister is a mystery to me.AndyJS said:Anna Soubry: "It's a dreadful decision".
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To be honest, most people's geographical knowledge is pretty abysmal.EPG said:
It's not ok to talk about racism, but it is ok to say the rootless cosmopolitans are ignorant?another_richard said:There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"
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Will Cameron be as magnanimous as Salmond?0
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Yes they did.SeanT said:THE SUN got it right, again
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Yet my comment will be true.EPG said:
It's not ok to talk about racism, but it is ok to say the rootless cosmopolitans are ignorant?another_richard said:There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"
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What are the chances that Dimbleby's 16.8m figure is wrong?
It implies almost 2m votes still to come - which looks far, far too high.0 -
Yes, really sorry about the holiday @TheScreamingEagles but many thanks for all the work you put in on this site.Pauly said:Just want to thank TSE et al. for the dramatic and brilliant coverage throughout the night. Fantastic work from this site, keep up the good work.
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Exporters will only benefit from a lower pound if they can find the funding to expand their output. If not, they are just getting less for what they do sell.David_Evershed said:
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Did Mr Trump call Brexit? A clear sighted leader that one. 0
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Or great news for buyers on Monday!SouthamObserver said:
Super. Great news for pensions.EPG said:
Accounting for the fall in GBP, in dollar terms, shares are forecast about 20 per cent down now.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Congrats to all who made winning bets at huge prices on leave.0
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Exporters bill in dollars. So they will get more than at present in pound equivalent.No_Offence_Alan said:
Exporters will only benefit from a lower pound if they can find the funding to expand their output. If not, they are just getting less for what they do sell.David_Evershed said:0 -
Great news for buyers today. However, the fact that sellers believe equity value is down a fifth in international terms is bad.MaxPB said:
Or great news for buyers on Monday!SouthamObserver said:
Super. Great news for pensions.EPG said:
Accounting for the fall in GBP, in dollar terms, shares are forecast about 20 per cent down now.SouthamObserver said:0 -
It was Nick P's fault.anotherDave said:
How that woman became a government minister is a mystery to me.AndyJS said:Anna Soubry: "It's a dreadful decision".
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UK suppliers can also benefit from imports becoming more expensive.No_Offence_Alan said:
Exporters will only benefit from a lower pound if they can find the funding to expand their output. If not, they are just getting less for what they do sell.David_Evershed said:
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Still can't believe it's happened. Was convinced it would be 51% Remain.0
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Gisela Stuart on BBC1
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Stoke still to come-surely 70-30% to leave.0
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new thread......0
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NEW THREAD!!!!!!!!0
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So does this plunge Scotland back into another independence referendum, what currency to use, can they join the EU/UN etc?0
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Asian markets already routed, Carney expected to make statement immediately after Cameron and before markets open. Japan finance minister 'very concerned'.0
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Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.
I did call the result at 3.23 here
https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152
Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.
On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.0 -
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In the last week Sky has been biased towards REMAIN.williamglenn said:Sky correspondent literally in tears giving the financial news.
Murdock influence?
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Although Leave didn't win in Mid Sussex, I was very surprised to see nearby Sevenoaks voting Leave by a sizeable margin.BenedictWhite said:Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.
I did call the result at 3.23 here
https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152
Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.
On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.0 -
So whats Eddie Izzards electoral success now?0
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Only 37,665 votes needed. Surely next 1 or 2 declarations?AndyJS said:0 -
Well done sir, well done.BenedictWhite said:Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.
I did call the result at 3.23 here
https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152
Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.
On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.0 -
Didn't see that. Wow.AndyJS said:
Although Leave didn't win in Mid Sussex, I was very surprised to see nearby Sevenoaks voting Leave by a sizeable margin.BenedictWhite said:Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.
I did call the result at 3.23 here
https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152
Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.
On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF. 0 -
What surprised me was that I was the first observer there, had to organise (until UKIP arrived) the observing. No vote eyeballing going on except organised by me on our side.Mortimer said:
Well done sir, well done.BenedictWhite said:Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.
I did call the result at 3.23 here
https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152
Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.
On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.
However the LDs were there, organised, mostly pleasant with a few rude ones and a couple of angry ones.
However there were very few Conservative activists in the room. That speaks volumes for how Cameron has divided the party I am afraid.0 -
What do you mean, "rootless"? Their roots are in Upper Street in Islington.EPG said:
It's not ok to talk about racism, but it is ok to say the rootless cosmopolitans are ignorant?another_richard said:There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"
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actually most of the wwc I speak to (and I must speak to more than your avreage Labour MP looking at todays election results), know there won't be mass deportations. I think we should give the electorate some credit they actually understand the issues more than we on here think.YellowSubmarine said:
The same people who currently pick them. The consequences of the lack of promised change are enormous.surbiton said:So who will pick the strawberries now ?
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Just back from the Doncaster count.
1) milepede and the other two lab mps didn't show. They left their workers to take the hit. We took 104k votes, they got 46k. Demographics indicated ~60:40. The wwc is abandoning labour and that party has no answer.
2) Nigel Farage is a god.
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