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  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Liverpool 58% Remain 42% Leave
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    pbr2013 said:

    Does anyone see a viable route from here to a Remain win? I don't but could be missing something.

    Would like to know as well.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Islington decently better for Remain
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Scousers not going to turn the tide.
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    AV=EU
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Islington also 3% above par.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Would it be fair to say that the country is more polarized than Henretty's spreadsheet suggested?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    edited June 2016
    Come on you Scouse bastards
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Islington vote for In....shock result of the night....

    Who are the 25% of Islingtonites that voted out lol. Emily will be most distressed!
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    tlg86 said:

    Would it be fair to say that the country is more polarized than Henretty's spreadsheet suggested?

    Yes, definitely.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Wigan 64% Out
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    RodCrosby said:

    Islington decently better for Remain

    2%? What was the turnout?
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I think Remain are doing a bit better than expected in the southern Tory shires?
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    pbr2013 said:

    Does anyone see a viable route from here to a Remain win? I don't but could be missing something.

    5million votes still to come for them from London?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    CornishBlue said:

    GideonWise said:

    John Mann very confident about Leave. Also thinks Northern Ireland will go Leave. That can't be right?

    Even if not a majority, a 45-55 remain victory in NI would be a success for leave, and show that really it's only Inner London, Scotland and some English university cities that are out of kilter with the Union (the real union).
    On my numbers, Remain get 58-61 in NI, and I can't see myself being more than a couple of percent (3-4%) wrong.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Surrey Heath (Gove) only 51% Leave.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Isle of Wight 62% Leave, expected 60%.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,731
    edited June 2016
    John_M said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Islington vote for In....shock result of the night....

    Who are the 25% of Islingtonites that voted out lol. Emily will be most distressed!
    There will be an inquiry and the traitors will be rooted out....
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Fenman said:

    Three years to Scottish independence

    Bullshit.
    Scotland is a sideshow. The real issue is how the Irish Republicans respond.
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    KentRising said:

    IanB2 said:

    The only thing I can see that we *might* be missing is that the Tory Home Counties dont break for leave as anticipated?

    SE is going to be tight.
    So far the SE is pretty much on par.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Come on you Islington bastards
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:

    Surrey Heath (Gove) only 51% Leave.

    Exactly on par.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Ribble Valley Out
    West Dorset Out
    Rugby Out
    Allerdale out
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    tlg86 said:

    Would it be fair to say that the country is more polarized than Henretty's spreadsheet suggested?

    Yes: London, Scotland, NI and the major Mets are more Remain. Everywhere more Leave, often massively so.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    MP_SE said:

    pbr2013 said:

    Does anyone see a viable route from here to a Remain win? I don't but could be missing something.

    Would like to know as well.
    London continues to be about 80% remain, & SE is a bit more remain than now. Coalfields somehow don't break against Remain.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    SeanT said:

    Fenman said:

    Three years to Scottish independence

    lol. The euro? Tariffs at Berwick? The Scottish deficit? Oil?

    Dream on.

    If the English can vote against their economic interests, why not the Scots?

  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    surrey good for remain?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Would it be fair to say that the country is more polarized than Henretty's spreadsheet suggested?

    Yes: London, Scotland, NI and the major Mets are more Remain. Everywhere more Leave, often massively so.
    Don't want to blow my own trumpet but my spreadsheet had a much bigger divergence between areas than Hanretty's. For example a lot of my London figures were over 70% whereas his weren't. I was concerned about that before the results started coming in.
  • timmo
    timmo Posts: 1,469
    What was the liverpool result?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Danny565 said:

    I think Remain are doing a bit better than expected in the southern Tory shires?

    Pretty par or one or two percent under par.

    I'd like to see a slew of 5% above expectations in Kent, Hants, Dorset, Wiltshire, Devon
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    tyson said:

    Come on you Scouse bastards

    Not a great turn out. Of course the pubs were still open :-)
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    HYUFD said:

    Lincoln, Rugby, Wyre Forest, Ribble Valley vote Leave

    Cameron has lost The Shires and middle England. Even if London scrapes him to a win, he's finished.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Danny565 said:

    I think Remain are doing a bit better than expected in the southern Tory shires?

    Yes, a little, Remain have just won Mole Valley, a safe Tory seat in Surrey
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    tlg86 said:

    Surrey Heath (Gove) only 51% Leave.

    The southeast may let Leave down here...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    timmo said:

    What was the liverpool result?

    Remain 58%
    Leave 42%
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    rcs1000 said:

    CornishBlue said:

    GideonWise said:

    John Mann very confident about Leave. Also thinks Northern Ireland will go Leave. That can't be right?

    Even if not a majority, a 45-55 remain victory in NI would be a success for leave, and show that really it's only Inner London, Scotland and some English university cities that are out of kilter with the Union (the real union).
    On my numbers, Remain get 58-61 in NI, and I can't see myself being more than a couple of percent (3-4%) wrong.
    Thanks. Hopefully no higher than 58% then.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Mole Valley REMAIN.

  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    KentRising said:

    tlg86 said:

    Surrey Heath (Gove) only 51% Leave.

    The southeast may let Leave down here...
    That Surrey Heath result is bang on par
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    KentRising said:

    tlg86 said:

    Surrey Heath (Gove) only 51% Leave.

    The southeast may let Leave down here...
    I wonder if Gove galvanised Remain support among his opponents in Surrey Heath?
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    KentRising said:

    tlg86 said:

    Surrey Heath (Gove) only 51% Leave.

    The southeast may let Leave down here...
    Yup.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    tlg86 said:

    Would it be fair to say that the country is more polarized than Henretty's spreadsheet suggested?

    Perhaps, although LEAVE are clearly doing better than 50/50, so the LEAVE margins would shift upwards. Remain's outliers are few and isolated.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Cannock Chase 68.9%
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Cannock chase nearly 9% below par for remain.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited June 2016
    Castle Point 73% Leave, 6%~ above par.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    St Albans Remain as expected.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Yorkshire may come to Leave's aid though......
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Unless I'm missing something they're aren't enough inner-city areas to swing it for Remain.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeL said:

    Mole Valley REMAIN.

    That's just out of London. Cameron's message getting traction here.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    John_M said:

    I'd go to bed, except sleep is officially impossible.

    I have to "get up" in 4 hours ... going to be a tough day at the office tomorrow.
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    Strong remain vote in St Albans. Proper Cameron-Osborne types.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    RodCrosby said:

    tlg86 said:

    Would it be fair to say that the country is more polarized than Henretty's spreadsheet suggested?

    Perhaps, although LEAVE are clearly doing better than 50/50, so the LEAVE margins would shift upwards. Remain's outliers are few and isolated.
    Fair point.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I be the first to say: "the LibDems will be the principle long-term beneficiaries of Brexit"

    Yes, and that sound I just heard was a squadron of Gloucester Old Spots flying past my window.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Good leave in Havant, par in North Dorset.
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    Gap between Leave and Remain now 0.14%. This is arse-clenchingly close.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Cannock Chase, Castle Point, N Dorset and W Somerset vote Leave
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    St Albans Remain 63%

    Some better results for Remain in South East outside London?
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    4% over par for remain in St Albans.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Good leave in west somerset
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    rottenborough said:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Unless I'm missing something they're aren't enough inner-city areas to swing it for Remain.

    60 days later Dan finally gets it.

  • John_N4
    John_N4 Posts: 553
    What's the overall below-par figure for Remain, for those of you using those models?
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Kay Burley's such an idiot. "If it's 49-51 you've got to have another referendum". Because that would resolve everything!
  • El_Capitano
    El_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    I don't think the southern shires are going to save Remain, sadly. Stroud's an outlier, it's becoming one of those liberal outposts like Hebden Bridge. The Home Counties don't look to be significantly above par for Remain as yet.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Maidstone Leave 59 Remain 41
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    Mortimer said:

    Cannock chase nearly 9% below par for remain.

    The Staffordshire districts (including Stoke on Trent) should be heavy Leave territory.
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lincoln, Rugby, Wyre Forest, Ribble Valley vote Leave

    Cameron has lost The Shires and middle England. Even if London scrapes him to a win, he's finished.
    Oh God, who cares about that now?
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    edited June 2016
    If I hear the words 'the country is really divided' one more time tonight I am going to scream! Hello, this is a referendum not a local council election or GE, there are only two options on the ballot paper!! Of course that means the country is going be divided down far clearer lines that we normal see in elections! But whatever the result, the voters have spoken, and with the turnout today no one can say that the voters didn't engage and exercise their democratic right to vote and make a decision.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Gloucester Leave 59 Remain 41
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,731
    edited June 2016
    Oh here comes Tarquin and friends on their gap yahhhhhhhhhhs....
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Good result for Leave in Gloucester.

    Basically the further from London and large metro cities, the more Leave is beating par.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    HYUFD said:

    Maidstone Leave 59 Remain 41

    Come on Kent ;-)
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Young remain wan*ers on sky right now
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Remain 50.3
    Leave 49.8
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    surbiton said:

    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.

    Brum will be very good for Leave. Close to parity.

  • Lowlander
    Lowlander Posts: 941
    Huge amounts of Scotland and some of London are already tallied yet Remain are behind even now. It doesnt look good at all for remain. But Remain are still favourites? WTF!
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    that hedge fund exit poll looks right now.
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    HYUFD said:

    Gloucester Leave 59 Remain 41

    Spanking.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,731
    nunu said:

    that hedge fund exit poll looks right now.

    Which one.....
  • GideonWise
    GideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Anyone got a current net figure for under/over expectations based on Andy's model?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Back when I was still a Remain voter predicting 66% to Remain I said my worst-case scenario was a narrow Remain win. Better a Leave victory by 1 vote or a Remain landslide.

    Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    W Devon

    Leave 53% Remain 47%
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Mortimer said:

    Good result for Leave in Gloucester.

    Basically the further from London and large metro cities, the more Leave is beating par.

    Absolutely. Far too close to call right now.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    hunchman said:

    Young remain wan*ers on sky right now

    We can agree on that.
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    In or Out, is this the death knell for the EU? A lot of E/S European countries only seem to be in it for what they can get out of it. Several N/W European countries are tired of it. Could the Euro, defence cooperation etc continue without it?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    To have any chance, remain need actually to be ahead in a whole swathe of counties south and west of London. Only a few glimmers of that happening right now?
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    John_N4 said:

    What's the overall below-par figure for Remain, for those of you using those models?

    Median Gap around 6%, although I've lost track of results, which are coming in too fast.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    After my lousy predictions last year, my predictions are coming in pretty accurately this evening - turnout around 70%, Betfair now putting Leave in England clearly in front, Islington 3-1 for Remain. I think it's very much a tossup and I can't see why Betfair still makes Remain a strong fabourite for the UK.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,731
    Mortimer said:

    Good result for Leave in Gloucester.

    Basically the further from London and large metro cities, the more Leave is beating par.

    F##kin Little Englanders or some such nonsense...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Richmond Remain 69% Leave 31%
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    hunchman said:

    Young remain wan*ers on sky right now

    Not a good advert for their supporters. Very much Tim Nice bu Dims.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    What was the Richmond on Thames result?
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    fitalass said:

    If I hear the words 'the country is really divided' one more time tonight I am going to scream! Hello, this is a referendum not a local council election or GE, there are only two options on the ballot paper!! Of course that means the country is going be divided down far clearer lines that we normal see in elections! But whatever the result, the voters have spoken, and with the turnout today no one can say that the voters didn't engage and

    Agreed.
    Actually, I was just noticing in how many Districts the results are in the 40%-60% range - so arguably we're not nearly so polarised as people are suggesting.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Wales now 54% Out
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Wow, sterling has now seen its most volatile trading on record as the EU Ref results unfold! Boris, hope you have a plan B....
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    CornishBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gloucester Leave 59 Remain 41

    Spanking.
    I'm surprised it wasn't higher. It's not been a shining example of integration.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited June 2016
    hunchman said:

    What was the Richmond on Thames result?

    Remain 69%, 4% above par.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Richmond Remain 69% Leave 31%

    Zac
  • bazzer
    bazzer Posts: 44
    What is happening on BF ? Can people just simply not believe what they are seeing? How else to explain leave being odds against given evidence? Surely they need a miracle now?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Leave is currently doing better in Wales than England.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    England 53.7% Out
This discussion has been closed.

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