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edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain’s advantage

Basildon Leave 38 pts ahead, vs 25 pts expected if it's 50-50 nationally. Out of 20 results only 2 have Remain doing better than expected.

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  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Confusion in Wales. It seem residents thought they were voting to be allowed to leave Merthyr Tydfil.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    2nd!
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    corporeal said:

    Confusion in Wales. It seem residents thought they were voting to be allowed to leave Merthyr Tydfil.

    lol. I'd vote for that :D
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    Tom Watson banging on about the Tories....If I was him I would be shitting it about Labour heartlands.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    You can cut the tension between Dimblebore and Curtice...
  • BigIan
    BigIan Posts: 198
    Where's this crossover then?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    edited June 2016
    Swansea for Out.

    Out - 61936
    In - 58307
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Swansea much better for LEAVE
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    omg BBC, kill yourselves, you're terrible.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Swansea 51.5% leave
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Weren't remain supposed to be winning up until 3?
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Cross over any minute now.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    CROSSOVER APPROACHING....
  • RealBritain
    RealBritain Posts: 255
    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    BigIan said:

    Where's this crossover then?

    Soon, I think
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Any tweets from Andrew Cooper about what's going on

    Also, has anybody had a PB meltdown yet? ;)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: David Davis just suggested shorting sterling, not exactly the Leave message!
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Results coming in thick and fast now :)
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    Have Sky got Thrasher on? I have had it on for a bit and not seen him.
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    I suggest the Leave side understand these voters more than the establishment...
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    Swansea for leave. Remain is sinking fast here. Could be only Cardiff that votes remain in Wales
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Wanderer said:

    Well, this is getting bizarre. We are all pretty much ready to call it for Leave and it's still odds-against.

    How many people have in hindsight here talked about how slow the market was to react away from No Overall Majority last year and how much they made based on that?

    If I gambled I'd be betting big on Leave right now, it should be odds-on.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Total vote after 10% of areas: 53.2% Leave 46.8% Remain
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited June 2016
    58% Leave in Southend is below par right?

    Leave needs Essex.
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    FPT Any TV coverage of EU people? Are they asleep?
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MP_SE said:

    Cross over any minute now.

    AFT!
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    Labour blaming Tories, SNP, Lannisters.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2016
    Swansea votes Leave

    Leave 52-Remain 48
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    THE DEATH CROSS!
  • YBarddCwsc
    YBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    That is correct.

    I would guess that the part of Wales which has received most immigration (Cardiff) might be the only part to vote Remain.

    The Valleys & West Wales has received lots of EU money, but its dispersal by the Welsh Government has actually managed to make the people poorer.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Crossover
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Labour blaming the SNP !

    The SNP have delivered !
  • RealBritain
    RealBritain Posts: 255
    brokenwheel said:

    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    I suggest the Leave side understand these voters more than the establishment...
    They also fail to understand that in some of these areas immigration has had extremely little tangible impact. If they are voting against it, they are voting against a second-hand impression of it - which has a number of implications.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Crossover on Betfair.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Bury below par for Leave?
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Crossover
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,328
    Leave favourite
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    RodCrosby said:

    THE DEATH CROSS!

    You jinxed it ;)
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jeez Swansea was supposed to vote Remain by 10%, they've gone Leave!

    It's over surely!?
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Leave +132k
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    CROSSOVER
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    numbertwelve said:

    You can cut the tension between Dimblebore and Curtice...

    Dimblebore: "Ou est le Masse du Reserve?"
    Curtice: "Aucune"
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    Any tweets from Andrew Cooper about what's going on

    Also, has anybody had a PB meltdown yet? ;)

    Last thing he retweeted...

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/746130361508298752

    :P
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Crossover!
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Bob__Sykes said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    Looks like the "racist old cow" is going to have the last laugh? ;)
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD falling down to 1.44
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    CROSSOVER

    Leave now favourite on Betfair
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    X-over
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swansea Leave 52%.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Harlow Leave 68%
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    PlatoSaid said:

    Leave +132k

    Couldn't that all be wiped out by Birmingham?
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I'm starting to think it's all over. At least that means I can go to bed. See you all in the morning.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,737
    edited June 2016
    I always wonder about this claim of extremely low immigration. I wonder would a better question be a "change in immigration".

    London has always had a lot of immigration, where as in some other places they might not have had many immigrants in terms of % of population, but they might have gone from 0% and so the change is more visible and perhaps worries more people....just a thought.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Leave 148k
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    Wales to vote Leave. Will join England. Long live the union of our two nations.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    CROSSOVER. Come ON!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone think it'll be difficult for the SNP to call another referendum if it's not just England voting Leave but Wales and possibly Northern Ireland as well?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Bob__Sykes said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBP1.4350 and still falling
  • DeClare
    DeClare Posts: 483
    Right Leave has won, when does the grim reaper turn up?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    I think I'll be going to bed soon.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    CornishBlue said:

    Wales to vote Leave. Will join England. Long live the union of our two nations.

    Boom !
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    corporeal said:

    Confusion in Wales. It seem residents thought they were voting to be allowed to leave Merthyr Tydfil.

    That would be a landslide then.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    BBC: Senior Labour figure says it will be Leave.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    CornishBlue said:

    Wales to vote Leave. Will join England. Long live the union of our two nations.

    Thanks for the SPIN tips Nigel4England/Robert
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Wexit.

    England and Wales Cricket Team, England and Wales independent nation.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Bury Leave 54 Remain 46
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    hunchman said:

    CROSSOVER. Come ON!

    Not quite, yet.
  • marke09
    marke09 Posts: 926
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Have Sky got Thrasher on? I have had it on for a bit and not seen him.

    yes but hes been very quiet - too early etc
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    What are the par scores for:

    Southend
    Bury
    Harlow

    How much better is Leave doing than forecast?
  • marke09
    marke09 Posts: 926
    Look whos changed his tune

    Peter Kellner ‏@PeterKellner1 16m16 minutes ago

    Looking much closer now; Remain victory no longer certain
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    rcs1000 said:

    I think I'll be going to bed soon.

    Me too. Not sure I'll be able to sleep much, mind.

  • The_Woodpecker
    The_Woodpecker Posts: 506
    The_Woodpecker said:

    Cashed out. +£5oo remain, +£1500 leave. Really think Remain might whisker this. Too stressful!

    OK Bury and Swansea results are changing my mind.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Redcar 67% Leave
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    Off the top of my head Merthyr would be a strong case of the kind of "left behind" communities that Ford and Goodwin identified as being fertile ground for UKIP.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Eden votes to leave. One of the three local authorities that Henretty had as neck and neck.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    66% Leave in Redcar
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD 1.43 gone weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    marke09 said:

    Look whos changed his tune

    Peter Kellner ‏@PeterKellner1 16m16 minutes ago

    Looking much closer now; Remain victory no longer certain

    Retirement beckons.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    rottenborough said:

    BBC: Senior Labour figure says it will be Leave.

    Sounds like the same Alan Johnson story doing the rounds about forty minutes back
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    Gravitation said:

    CROSSOVER

    Leave now favourite on Betfair

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UArbzOExaBg
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Leave +132k

    Couldn't that all be wiped out by Birmingham?
    Yes, the big cities could swing this. Knife edge in IMHO. Absolute knife.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Bury is a horrible result for Remain. I thought they would narrowly carry it.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Hello Alex! ;)
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    KentRising said:

    What are the par scores for:

    Southend
    Bury
    Harlow

    How much better is Leave doing than forecast?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

    Somewhere between a few and more.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Leave now 1.6
  • RealBritain
    RealBritain Posts: 255
    SouthamObserver said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    As a Swansea man born and bred, that leave vote is...well...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    SeanT said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I tried to save your flat :/
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Salmond and Dimbleby announcing betfair crossover
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    Portsmouth rumoured 57% leave, Southhampton 60% leave. Woah.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FPT @CasinoRoyale I am entirely calm. My view of Leave's campaign is well-settled and has been well-advertised. It is not going to change.

    It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    and 1.42 gone!!!!!!
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    brokenwheel said:

    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    I suggest the Leave side understand these voters more than the establishment...

    Which is why Tory Leavers have cheered on policy after policy that has done significant harm to working class voters.

  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    KentRising said:

    58% Leave in Southend is below par right?

    Leave needs Essex.

    On Andy Southend is 56.56
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Losing track of all the incoming results!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    HYUFD said:

    Bury Leave 54 Remain 46

    Bury North and South have long been bellwether constituencies. Bury relatively affluent in Greater Manchester voting terms. This is serious now.
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Wexit.

    England and Wales Cricket Team, England and Wales independent nation.

    England and Wales - the only union worth fighting for. The union for keeps.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I agree.

    I read Charles' moving, and beautifully written reasons for why he voted Leave earlier and knew I'd made the right decision. But I wasn't expecting the numbers looking to agree with it!
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