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  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Liverpool at 60% remain apparently. First bit of good news for remain.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Either everyone is panicking or remain is dead and buried. Turnout too good in the wrong places?
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Dennis Skinner for Labour leader?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    Gravitation said:

    Angela Eagle thisclose to mentioning Thatcher. Can't get away from party politics and actually address the issues regarding Europe.

    Campbell firstly saying the result isn't about the EU and then saying that it shouldn't have happened in the first place.

    Labour really haven't got a clue, have they?

    This isn't Labour. These are the dump Corbyn plotters. Pitiful stuff.

    They were expecting to come on and talk about a comfortable Remain victory.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    Apparently Majestic boss said that Brexit would massively increase the cost of wine....nobody tell SeanT.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Kettering? Good bad? No feel for that one.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bigjohnowls said:

    Y0kel said:

    Are Labour out of touch?

    Exhibit A: Angela Eagle.

    Time for a clearout of Blairites
    Time for a clearout of the whole bloody party. Gisella Stuart and Kate Hoey can Remain everyone else should Leave ;)
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Slackbladder said:

    Kettering out

    Kettering 61% LEAVE
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    I believe Vernon Bogdanor was Cameron's tutor at Oxford. I wonder whether he now wishes he had failed him in the finals and saved the country from this.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    SimonStClare said:

    Big Leave vote from Kettering. 61% - 39%,

    Not quite as good as Henretty's spreadsheet had suggested.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Basildon big leave; who'd have thought
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    If Leavers are, say, 65% motivated by immigration and 35% anti-EU but pro Free movement, and Remainers are 90% pro free movement, then tomorrow morning there is a 65% pro-freemovement majority for Brexit negotiations. That is the problem - Remainers don't go away after they've lost.
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    MikeL said:

    How is Remain still 1.5?

    I don't think the market can quite believe that they might have been so spectacularly wrong.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    I'm going to start a save Corbyn letter...
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    bigjohnowls said:

    Has Lab lost touch with its core vote.

    YES YES YES YES

    Labour are totally out of touch, Cameron insulted his core voters.

    What a damning indictment of both of them.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Two words: Eddie Izzard. Has he finished on the winning side of anything in the last 10 years?
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    tlg86 said:

    The police need to be ready for trouble tomorrow.

    Hipster beard revolt?
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I think the estimates for sterling was $1.25-$1.30. Sounds sensible.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited June 2016
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Would like to be a fly on the wall in Guardian HQ tomorrow. Should have listened to John Harris...

    Even if it isn't Leave, his piece on Stoke was brilliant...as was his on Trump stuff...as was on last years GE...in fact his stuff is just damn good.

    He manages to connect with people, listen to them, ask insightful questions...maybe the likes of Polly could learn a trick or two.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So looks like my holiday to America is going to be cancelled.

    My boss has just texted me a 40% fall in Sterling in the morning at this rate.

    Sorry to hear that TSE. Was hoping there would be relaxation on that work edict.
    At least Boris can offer an apology when sterling crashes, when property price crashes, when our stocks crash, when there is a flight of capital out of the UK, when leading companies invest outside the UK......

    We will be a much poorer country. That'll help keep the immigrants out
  • bunnco
    bunnco Posts: 169
    just going on BBC Eastern Region Radio for a Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot live broadcast
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    MikeL said:

    How is Remain still 1.5?

    Big cities yet to declare.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    tlg86 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Big Leave vote from Kettering. 61% - 39%,

    Not quite as good as Henretty's spreadsheet had suggested.
    Better than Andys. Andy has 43.8% for Remain as par.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    FrankBooth said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I genuinely don't understand why people are so surprised by all this.

    I have to say you are one of the few people who has been saying consistently that Leave would win.

    I just couldn't see how Remain could win. Dave has reaped what he sowed.

  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    While I've never voted Labour, they have had some real intellectual heavyweights in the last century. This current lot are fucking pygmies, unfit to polish Clem's boots.

    They're like the Bourbons. Learned nothing, forgotten nothing. Still obsessing over Fatcha.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apparently Majestic boss said that Brexit would massively increase the cost of wine....nobody tell SeanT.

    Sure all the WWC in Sunderland and Swindon were scared by that one...
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Why is Betfair still so far from reality?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    CornishBlue said:

    MikeL said:

    How is Remain still 1.5?

    Big cities yet to declare.
    How can they save this?
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I think people have not realised just how facked off the people are with the establishment. Massively
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    It seems like the remain leaning areas are generally going inline with expectations, but the leave was are going much more leave.
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    MTimT said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Eagles is pitiful. She really is.

    She nearly blamed Margaret Thatcher just there
    Yes, I clocked that as well. Thought I must have imagined it.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    rottenborough said:

    I believe Vernon Bogdanor was Cameron's tutor at Oxford. I wonder whether he now wishes he had failed him in the finals and saved the country from this.

    Bet Cameron wishes he hadn't won in 2015. Could have gone out on a high.
  • KeithJenner
    KeithJenner Posts: 99
    Casino_Royale said:

    TGOHF said:

    Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.

    BBC

    Southampton, Sheffield, Leicester, and Nottingham are my bellwethers.

    They all go Leave, Leave have a clear win.
    I have heard a rumour (second hand, so no idea of its accuracy) that Sheffield may be towards 70% leave. Sounds very high to me.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Chameleon said:

    Liverpool at 60% remain apparently. First bit of good news for remain.

    The big urban centres will be interesting. Could claw a bit back.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    FrankBooth said:

    I think the estimates for sterling was $1.25-$1.30. Sounds sensible.

    $1.25 is a big support area. I wouldn't expect that to go, but a spike low there is quite possible.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tlg86 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Big Leave vote from Kettering. 61% - 39%,

    Not quite as good as Henretty's spreadsheet had suggested.
    Better than Andys. Andy has 43.8% for Remain as par.
    Of course, turnout assumptions matter a great deal.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    bigjohnowls said:

    Has Lab lost touch with its core vote.

    YES YES YES YES

    Like Scotland, like the North. I am calling it for Leave now given the likely London turnout because of the weather.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Can the British polling industry survive this?

    Some of them can. TNS looking like the gold standard
    Has Andrew Cooper tweeted recently? :innocent_face:
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    MikeL said:

    How is Remain still 1.5?

    Weight of money.

    The bookies aren't trying to predict the event, they're trying to get equal amounts of money on each side. The amount of money placed on remain during the campaign will hold the price.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Chameleon said:

    It seems like the remain leaning areas are generally going inline with expectations, but the leave was are going much more leave.

    I think that's fair.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    Why is Betfair still so far from reality?

    because they are the "experts" lol.
  • Starfall
    Starfall Posts: 78
    The BBC chart is a terrible display of data. It does not illuminate anything at all.
  • YellowSubmarine
    YellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sterling won't fall 40% but it might fall 20%.

    It's the rise in unemployment over the next year which is the key statistic to watch, of course. It will be quite significant.

    Yes. That those who voted most strongly to Leave will be the worst effected by it will become the new fault line in English and welsh politics.
  • JennyFreeman
    JennyFreeman Posts: 488
    HYUFD said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Can the British polling industry survive this?

    TNS, Opinium, ICM all had Leave ahead in their final polls
    wasn't there some other weird company last week that gave Leave a big lead and everyone dismissed?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Casino_Royale said:

    TGOHF said:

    Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.

    BBC

    Southampton, Sheffield, Leicester, and Nottingham are my bellwethers.

    They all go Leave, Leave have a clear win.
    leicester not due til 0600
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    78% turnout in Broxtowe. No result yet.
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Laura Kuensberg said rumour that Lewisham voting 83% REMAIN.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apparently Majestic boss said that Brexit would massively increase the cost of wine....nobody tell SeanT.

    Sure all the WWC in Sunderland and Swindon were scared by that one...
    I bet it shifted....erhhhh....zero votes.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So looks like my holiday to America is going to be cancelled.

    My boss has just texted me a 40% fall in Sterling in the morning at this rate.

    Sorry to hear that TSE. Was hoping there would be relaxation on that work edict.
    Never have I more regretted being a fluent French speaker.
    Remind them of the Treaty of Troyes.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Chameleon said:

    Liverpool at 60% remain apparently. First bit of good news for remain.

    Yes, though UKIP did worse in Liverpool than nationally so should lean Remain
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Need MI5 to start doing their thing now...
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    rcs1000 said:

    Why is Betfair still so far from reality?

    Bizarro.
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    It's not Brexit yet. Calm my dears, calm. Think of Sean's flat.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Shetland:

    Remain: 6,907 (56.5%)
    Leave: 5,315 (43.5)
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Starfall said:

    The BBC chart is a terrible display of data. It does not illuminate anything at all.

    It's unbelievably shit. Just tell us what par is.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited June 2016
    tlg86 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Big Leave vote from Kettering. 61% - 39%,

    Not quite as good as Henretty's spreadsheet had suggested.
    Better than Andy's. 43.85 56.15 for Leave
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Yes, this is definitely the Labour line. It's about Cameron not Brussels.

    which would show utter contempt for british people. Typical bloody islington.

    when will they listen and learn? Immigration was always always always the key to this. Switch off from 'working people' at your peril
    You can see the BBC folks thinking "omg, racists, racists everywhere, millions of 'em!"
    :lol:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivaKBtZ_WvA
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited June 2016
    david_herdson said:

    Two words: Eddie Izzard. Has he finished on the winning side of anything in the last 10 years?

    Scottish Independence vote....and....and....and....no thats your lot.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    LOL

    Eagles "Labour voters didn't like Margar...the Tories"

    :lol:

    someone tell them she died.
    They literally have the T shirt to prove it.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    KeithJenner said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TGOHF said:

    Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.

    BBC

    Southampton, Sheffield, Leicester, and Nottingham are my bellwethers.

    They all go Leave, Leave have a clear win.
    I have heard a rumour (second hand, so no idea of its accuracy) that Sheffield may be towards 70% leave. Sounds very high to me.
    You are just trolling TSE. :-)
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    Chameleon said:

    Liverpool at 60% remain apparently. First bit of good news for remain.

    Probably not helped by The Sun...

    Turnout will be interesting though.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SouthamObserver said:

    FrankBooth said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I genuinely don't understand why people are so surprised by all this.

    I have to say you are one of the few people who has been saying consistently that Leave would win.

    I just couldn't see how Remain could win

    Me either. If it's on immigration, leave win. If it's on anger at elite, leave win. If it's on dislike of EU leave win. If it's on economy remain could win, but the poor areas I've seen know they'll be poor regardless and are massively for leave.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why is Betfair still so far from reality?

    Bizarro.
    Betfair is waiting for London...
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Shetland - Remain 56.5%
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    Based on the first 7 results it looks like 48/52 remain/leave
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    Cameron didn't lose it for Remain, but it was disastrous that he was the leader of the Remain campaign. Why would Labour voters vote for him? I think he, and many in the commentariat, forget how partisan a lot of Labour areas still are. Imagine if Thatcher had been leading the Remain campaign - how many Labour voters could've made themselves vote for her? How naive we are to think they would vote for Cameron!
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    The BBC's polling index is about as clear as mud.
  • Lowlander
    Lowlander Posts: 941
    Just stuck another £200 on Leave at 7/4. The current prices appear to be free money.
  • marke09
    marke09 Posts: 926
    SKY and CNN have different percentages - SKY showing 49 - 51 CNN 47 - 53
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Tissue_Price said:

    Starfall said:

    The BBC chart is a terrible display of data. It does not illuminate anything at all.

    It's unbelievably shit. Just tell us what par is.
    Agreed. I don't understand what the heck they're on about. I get the feeling the BBC are panicking a bit.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    W Dunbartonshire

    Remain 62% Leave 38%
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    £81m matched so far on Betfair.

    So a little over £31m matched in just over 27 hrs
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    W Dunbartonshire

    Remain 62% Leave 38%

    Turnout?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    felix said:

    Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.

    Sorry, no sympathy - you choice to live somewhere that doesn't use the Pound.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Would like to be a fly on the wall in Guardian HQ tomorrow. Should have listened to John Harris...

    Even if it isn't Leave, his piece on Stoke was brilliant...as was his on Trump stuff...as was on last years GE...in fact his stuff is just damn good.

    He manages to connect with people, listen to them, ask insightful questions...maybe the likes of Polly could learn a trick or two.
    He showed SLab what was going to happen in Scotland, and they denied it until the votes hit the counting table. They still are.

    He's one of the best the Guardian have - why the hell they still employ Polly T is beyond me. Utterly disconnected.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    alex. said:

    Need MI5 to start doing their thing now...

    Someone please indulge me... what is all this MI5 stuff that people are talking about?

  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Leave, at current odds, is absurd.

    looks like a very very good bet, to me.
  • Wulfrun_Phil
    Wulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    The next result from a labour regional heartland will be critical. Will others lab heartlands also outperform for leave. Tory seats in eng regions much closer to expectations so far.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    What PM would want to take over this mess. I'd love to know what Boris is thinking. This wasn't the plan.

    It's bizarre. Leave seemed pretty pessimistic at the start.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    £81m matched so far on Betfair.

    So a little over £31m matched in just over 27 hrs

    Will be 9 figures before this is over.
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    Salmond trying to compare the 1975 Shetland result to today to spin a good result for Remain. What a tool.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    KeithJenner said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TGOHF said:

    Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.

    BBC

    Southampton, Sheffield, Leicester, and Nottingham are my bellwethers.

    They all go Leave, Leave have a clear win.
    I have heard a rumour (second hand, so no idea of its accuracy) that Sheffield may be towards 70% leave. Sounds very high to me.
    You are just trolling TSE. :-)
    Someone else has texted me that South Yorkshire might have gone Leave.

    Did not see that coming.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Leanne Wood arguing for more devolved powers for Wales in event of Brexit.
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    We need to wait for places like Leeds and Brum but barring any big surprises in places like that it's all over bar the shouting isn't it? Looking forward to the shouting though!
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    david_herdson said:

    Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?

    I don't think so.
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    Cameron's delusion - Labour's shame https://ukelect.wordpress.com/2016/06/13/the-eu-referendum-and-the-democratic-deficit/
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,611
    LucyJones said:

    alex. said:

    Need MI5 to start doing their thing now...

    Someone please indulge me... what is all this MI5 stuff that people are talking about?

    Nutters saying you should use a pen incase MI5 rub out your pencil-marked leave vote and change it to remain.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    West Dunbartonshire:

    Remain 62%
    Leave 38%
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Chameleon said:

    It seems like the remain leaning areas are generally going inline with expectations, but the leave was are going much more leave.

    Is it just me though or are the Remain results paired with comparatively disappointing turnouts?
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    salmond smilin like a cheshire cat.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    david_herdson said:

    Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?

    Those London numbers look bad for Leave. Not sure what effect it will have though.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited June 2016
    John_M said:

    It's not Brexit yet. Calm my dears, calm. Think of Sean's flat.

    and the vino prices...don't forget the vino prices.
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apparently Majestic boss said that Brexit would massively increase the cost of wine....nobody tell SeanT.

    EU tariffs will be removed from New Zealand wine which is far superior to French wine.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Shetland:

    Remain: 6,907 (56.5%)
    Leave: 5,315 (43.5)

    better for LEAVE
  • DearPB
    DearPB Posts: 439
    david_herdson said:

    Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?</blockquote

    Yes - 52 to 48

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Bit early, but I'm off for the night. I expect with turnout as it is the cities will still be declaring when I get up in the morning. Have fun, kids.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    LucyJones said:

    alex. said:

    Need MI5 to start doing their thing now...

    Someone please indulge me... what is all this MI5 stuff that people are talking about?

    The paranoia amongst an alarmingly high proportion of leavers that if they voted by pencil the secret service would apply a rubber to their vote before it was counted....
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    We need some NW labour area results.
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