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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    No idea whether the Foyle result is good or bad...
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    MP_SE said:

    Danny565 said:

    Has the Remain Campaign now officially usurped Andy Burnham's 2015 leadership bid as the worst election campaign in history?

    The Leave campaign was really terrible.
    As a Leaver I will admit that the Leave campaign was not great. And Farage's poster with the migrants... deary me. If Leave lose nationally by a percent or so, well..
    I detested both campaigns.

    For me, Leave identified the correct diagnosis, had a prescription that was garbled and -to whatever extent it was coherent - incorrect, but redeemed themselves by getting the prognosis right. In some form or another Britain's destiny is disengagement from a European system that is approaching greater integration (and currently making a foul-up of it).

    They might lose on the night, but on much of the big picture they are basically right.

    I'm not convinced Remain got the prescription any better. But this isn't a vote for who gets to implement their prescription. And besides, Cameron's vision for the EU is different to Corbyn's vision of the EU is different to Farron's - and not one of them has the prospect of the power, even if Prime Minister, to reshape the EU in their image.

    Some kind of disentanglement is inevitable - tonight merely dictates the pace and the circumstances.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,346
    PlatoSaid said:

    Just discovered that a friend is having her baby tomorrow (by Cesarean) earlier than expected.

    One of the first Brexit babies?

    Really should call the new arrival Indie :smiley:
    The lady and her husband are very strong remainers - they've been spamming my FB feed.

    The worrying thing is why it's been brought forwards so much: I hope they're both okay.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited June 2016

    The establishment continues to patronise little England.

    If Leave do win, that Little Englander comment will be a huge own goal. I am said this several times, that was on par with Mrs Bucket and her white van / England flag stuff....coded language for racist...and people have had enough of being labelled that shit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ed Milliband looking disturbingly like Portillo.

    Ed Miliband is looking statesmanlike.

    Odds on him being next Labour leader? Alastair M did tip him....
    I'm on at 200-1!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Foyle:

    Remain: 32,064 (78.3%)
    Leave: 8,905 (21.7%)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    Isles of Scilly votes Remain

    803 Remain 621 Leave
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    rcs1000 said:

    No idea whether the Foyle result is good or bad...

    It's low turnout, good for Leave.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    The Labour line is this is a vote against the government not the EU.

    Heh.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    HYUFD said:

    Isles of Scilly votes Remain

    803 Remain 621 Leave

    Arhhh they got the gas lighting working in the end....
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Lol, ED says it's noting to do with people not liking the EU...

    EdM is his usual I'm So Much Clever Than You mode. He really has the most awful TV manner.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    Remain continue to monster the minnows. (Not that it was really a monstering).
  • AndyJS said:

    Remain may have 83% in Lewisham compared to 70% par.

    Turnout?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    rcs1000 said:

    No idea whether the Foyle result is good or bad...

    Given it is 80% nationalist, perhaps poor for remain.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637
    rcs1000 said:

    No idea whether the Foyle result is good or bad...

    Catholics for the "Union". THAT Union ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Isles of Scilly:

    Remain: 803 (56.4%)
    Leave: 621 (43.6%)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    Lowlander said:

    Charles said:

    Beeb estimates/gossip:

    N Warwickshire - 70/30
    Nuneaton - 80/20
    Hartlepool 70/30

    all to Leave

    This is sensational

    Can London and Scotland save it for Remain? Depends a bit on turnout but at this rate the answer's 'no.'
    The turnout in Scotland is very low, miles down on Indyref and that means that a 58% Remain (based on Clacks) is not nearly enough to save Remain.
    Scotland turnout of 68% vs 71% for country as a whole, so not going to make a massive difference.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    nunu said:

    shit Nuneton 80-20 Leave.

    Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat.
    Ah that "Nuneaton moment". I remember May 2015's moment very well... :D
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    GeoffM said:

    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    Wow. BBC employees are going into meltdown.

    someone please keep an eye out for Polly.
    Good idea. She might not be able to find a rooftop without help.
    She can join it with Eddie Izzard and Owen Jones.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scilly zero rejected ballots...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    Foyle votes In in NI
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    HARTLEPOOL 70% LEAVE!

    Mandy's seat once upon a time of course...
    UKIP's breakthrough by-election too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    Wales going leave. It must be all over now. And as a remainer I will accept the will of the people, congratulate leave, and hope we can all come together for the good of our Country. Glad I bought my euros last week.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Miliband is bringing out the classics - 'there's a lot of hurt and pain out there', 'we need to do a lot of listening'
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    83% Remain in Lewisham seems extraordinary. It's working class isn't it?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    BBC establishment suddenly starting to realise just how far removed they are from the ordinary man, woman and child in this country.
  • nunu said:

    London vs. rest of the country again.

    sadly that is going to be a big issue going forwards
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    If Leave wins 51-49 , what chance that Labour moves a No confidence motion ? What are the odds of an October election ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    Now Remain 52.8% Leave 47.2% nationally
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Fenster said:

    "Remain worried about the result in Wales"...

    HELLO!! Fecking hell - why are they surprised?? I could've told them the way the wind was blowing.

    UKIP do well in Wales and Wales is Eurosceptic. Remain shouldn't have taken it for granted.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    South Norfolk Turnout Figs.....
    80148 out of electorate 102398 Turnout 79pc

    Completed verification

    Very High Turnout in a district with a combination of Leafy Norwich Fringe suburbs [look like strongly remain 'on the table'] and more rural areas in Waveney Valley towards Diss [look to be strongly Brexit.

    In aggregate we expect Brexit to poll more than Remain anyway but difficult at this stage to see whether more than anticipated

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    83% Remain in Lewisham seems extraordinary. It's working class isn't it?

    mixed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Bridget Phillipson, the Labour MP for Houghton and Sunderland South, said she is “naturally disappointed” with the result but says it reflects the “real sense of anger” in the region about low wages and other issues."

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited June 2016
    hunchman said:

    BBC establishment suddenly starting to realise just how far removed they are from the ordinary man, woman and child in this country.

    But remember it is not London in a bubble, it is those outside the SE that are....said London metro elite, who pops at weekends to hang out with other London metro elites in Derbyshire...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    A disastrous night for the pollsters.

    Downfall video disastrous?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    hunchman said:

    BBC establishment suddenly starting to realise just how far removed they are from the ordinary man, woman and child in this country.

    If we get our country back, they're next...
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    AndyJS said:

    Isles of Scilly:

    Remain: 803 (56.4%)
    Leave: 621 (43.6%)

    I was genuinely expecting Remain 60-70% in Scilly.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    If Leave wins 51-49 , what chance that Labour moves a No confidence motion ? What are the odds of an October election ?

    Why should the Tories support such a motion? They do have a majority, you know.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    HYUFD said:

    Isles of Scilly votes Remain

    803 Remain 621 Leave

    Get a huge amount of EU aid
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    RodCrosby said:

    hunchman said:

    BBC establishment suddenly starting to realise just how far removed they are from the ordinary man, woman and child in this country.

    If we get our country back, they're next...
    Unpleasant tone there.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    83% Remain in Lewisham seems extraordinary. It's working class isn't it?

    Gentrified in parts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099

    83% Remain in Lewisham seems extraordinary. It's working class isn't it?

    But very labour with a strong labour gotv operation
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Mortimer said:

    A disastrous night for the pollsters.

    Downfall video disastrous?
    The Germans will be using BBC footage of this night's coverage and dubbing it over with German in their parody videos.

    That disastrous.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Diane James calling on Cameron to stay, interesting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    Swindon imminent. I think we were saying 50/50 for par?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370

    83% Remain in Lewisham seems extraordinary. It's working class isn't it?

    That is staggering. Supposed to be 69% according to the Andy spreadsheet.

    We really need to see how the other big English metropolitan areas (Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester, Birmingham) vote.
  • StarfallStarfall Posts: 78

    AndyJS said:

    Isles of Scilly:

    Remain: 803 (56.4%)
    Leave: 621 (43.6%)

    I was genuinely expecting Remain 60-70% in Scilly.
    What do you expect in Cornwall overall?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    Mortimer said:

    A disastrous night for the pollsters.

    Downfall video disastrous?
    Is it? It is now 53% Remain 47% Leave UK wide
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    A disastrous night for the pollsters.

    Populus 55/45 remain today...


    FFS!!!!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806
    You're not fooling anyone with that wig Vernon.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Which speadsheet are people using to judge the results above or below par for a 50/50 split?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    HYUFD said:

    Isles of Scilly votes Remain

    803 Remain 621 Leave

    Get a huge amount of EU aid
    Good for Remain according to Andy's Spreadsheet.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,841
    Mortimer said:

    A disastrous night for the pollsters.

    Downfall video disastrous?
    No, we're saving that up for Osborne? ;)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mortimer said:

    A disastrous night for the pollsters.

    Downfall video disastrous?
    The Germans will be using BBC footage of this night's coverage and dubbing it over with German in their parody videos.

    That disastrous.
    :lol:
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Where's Sean t tonight
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    That MI5 guy with his rubber is going to have to get his shift on at this rate....
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    AndyJS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Our country is looking very split.

    The political class are responsible for fostering the split over the last 15 years. They've spent gargantuan amounts of money on London projects while letting small towns in the provinces stagnate.
    Immigration is HUGE.

    The working classes have had to bear it, and the privileged classes who foisted it upon them would never have been as tolerant about it, yet continually labelled the working classes bigoted and racist whenever they griped.

    Tonight the working classes bit back.

    It was Labour's fault. Tony Blair's (lack of) immigration policy was disastrous.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819
    And Trump is going to land in the middle of all of the chaos and exploit it for the US audience... :(
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    If Leave do win, surely a downfall parody video of Dave in the bunker will be the order of the day?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Starfall said:

    AndyJS said:

    Isles of Scilly:

    Remain: 803 (56.4%)
    Leave: 621 (43.6%)

    I was genuinely expecting Remain 60-70% in Scilly.
    What do you expect in Cornwall overall?
    I would still expect a Remain vote, similar to Scilly's.

    But the way things are going....!!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I'd repaired to my boudoir for a nap. However, my trusty laptop keyboard has broken, and the indicative results so far have woken me right up. So here I am. Let's rock and roll UK.

    In related news, Ed Miliband is still a dickhead.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    55% Leave from Swindon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    Swindon

    Remain 51,220 Leave 61,745
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    Swindon good for Leave, but not amazing
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Another sign for leave!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Swindon:

    Remain: 51,220 (45.3%)
    Leave: 61,745 (54.7%)

    Was expecting 48% Remain. Hanretty was 41%.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    Swindon

    In: 51,220

    Out: 61,745
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Swindon 11k for Leave
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    RodCrosby said:

    hunchman said:

    BBC establishment suddenly starting to realise just how far removed they are from the ordinary man, woman and child in this country.

    If we get our country back, they're next...
    Unpleasant tone there.
    Say hi to your new friends. They won it for LEAVE and they want some people out of the country.

    Really, the PB Tory establishment is so far removed from why the ordinary LEAVEr wants LEAVE ;D
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Swindon 54.7% LEAVE

    Get in THERE
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Good news for leave.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Wales going leave. It must be all over now. And as a remainer I will accept the will of the people, congratulate leave, and hope we can all come together for the good of our Country. Glad I bought my euros last week.

    Well done for you, Big_G, you might well have saved yourself a few quid.

    I can't quite believe what I am reading on here this evening though.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 739
    I make that 55% Leave in SWINGdon
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    Leave win by c10% in Swindon. They're going to do this.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Swindon not so clear as last year!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    RobD said:

    55% Leave from Swindon.

    Is that good for Leave?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    IanB2 said:

    That MI5 guy with his rubber is going to have to get his shift on at this rate....

    Perhaps he's been turned. MI5, you know.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Swindon 55/45 leave

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    kjohnw said:

    Where's Sean t tonight

    Currently busy trying to sell his flat?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    hunchman said:

    Swindon 54.7% LEAVE

    Get in THERE

    Bang in line with 50/50 for England.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Swindon not so overwhelming for Leave. Maybe Tories not so angry.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Mein Gott Svindon
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,841
    kjohnw said:

    Where's Sean t tonight

    Out and about in Primrose?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    Maybe I was wrong with the 50/50 par value?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Broxbourne out too
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    Swindon good for Leave, but not amazing

    Yep but was thought to be 50:50 pretty much if national result 50:50 wasn't it?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 2016
    Maybe the explanation for a Leave win, should it occur, being missed by the polls is straightforward.

    Few are really EU enthusiasts beyond the political class, some apparently big brains and people who perhaps have a particular affinity to certain parts of Europe. Many more though don't like it it all. Even more I suspect many accept it has pros and cons but are deeply suspicious of the whole show and that feeling they really don't have a say, its all being done over their heads.

    That gives an inclination to Leave that is instinctive and gut compared to the financial self-interest line pedalled as hard a late night TV advert for a juicer. Come polling day that instinct might be decisive.

    Add that to the fact that you might just get branded as a bit of dumb ass, uneducated and vaguely racist person if you favour Leave, what would you do?

    You'd keep your counsel, get the polling station and stick two fingers up to that kind of demonisation in the privacy of the ballot box.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    Now tightened up again nationally after Swindon

    In 51% Leave 49%
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    As I said earlier, Glasgow really was not getting out to vote.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637
    Swindon 55:45 LEAVE
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Fenster said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Our country is looking very split.

    The political class are responsible for fostering the split over the last 15 years. They've spent gargantuan amounts of money on London projects while letting small towns in the provinces stagnate.
    Immigration is HUGE.

    The working classes have had to bear it, and the privileged classes who foisted it upon them would never have been as tolerant about it, yet continually labelled the working classes bigoted and racist whenever they griped.

    Tonight the working classes bit back.

    It was Labour's fault. Tony Blair's (lack of) immigration policy was disastrous.
    I read an article a week or so ago about Rochdale et al - they've taken almost 80% of asylum seekers - Cameron's council has taken Nil.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Swindon the first result that's better for REMAIN, but with the CI...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited June 2016
    Could a big turn out in London still do it for Remain?

    I think that would be the worst possible result. Slim Remain and a London vs ... type scenario.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    hunchman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Swindon good for Leave, but not amazing

    Yep but was thought to be 50:50 pretty much if national result 50:50 wasn't it?
    Andy had it as 54:46 for Leave
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    IanB2 said:

    That MI5 guy with his rubber is going to have to get his shift on at this rate....

    Obviously the one's he's doing will declare later.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bet fair not convinced - nearly 3 again
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Jeremy's going to hit oil if he spins this any more.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    EPG said:

    RodCrosby said:

    hunchman said:

    BBC establishment suddenly starting to realise just how far removed they are from the ordinary man, woman and child in this country.

    If we get our country back, they're next...
    Unpleasant tone there.
    Say hi to your new friends. They won it for LEAVE and they want some people out of the country.

    Really, the PB Tory establishment is so far removed from why the ordinary LEAVEr wants LEAVE ;D
    Rod is not representative, let's not go off the deep end. It's by no means Brexit yet.
This discussion has been closed.