If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Joining tomorrow? Bit of a leap there:
Senior diplomats in Brussels almost universally think Turkish membership is unthinkable in the foreseeable future. All EU nations hold a veto on accession, some in private are implacably opposed, and France and Austria are legally bound to hold referendums on the issue if Turkey meets its membership criteria.
Turkey has also made barely any headway in meeting the EU’s membership criteria. It has closed just one of 35 negotiating chapters and the European Commission has noted it is going backwards in some areas, particularly regarding human rights and rule of law.
The Sunday Times said Turkey was going to be offered visa free travel to the EU. Perhaps that's what this meeting is about.
"I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent."
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Joining tomorrow? Bit of a leap there:
Senior diplomats in Brussels almost universally think Turkish membership is unthinkable in the foreseeable future. All EU nations hold a veto on accession, some in private are implacably opposed, and France and Austria are legally bound to hold referendums on the issue if Turkey meets its membership criteria.
Turkey has also made barely any headway in meeting the EU’s membership criteria. It has closed just one of 35 negotiating chapters and the European Commission has noted it is going backwards in some areas, particularly regarding human rights and rule of law.
The Sunday Times said Turkey was going to be offered visa free travel to the EU. Perhaps that's what this meeting is about.
I believe one of the points of Merkel's deal with Turkey is a 're-energisation' of the accession talks, which, as others have mentioned, have languished for the last eleven years or so.
Told it's been good turnout in my neck of the Tory shires. I'd assume that would be good for Leave, but ANdyJs's calculations seem to indicate it's not quite as strong for leave as I would have thought.
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Well since talks having been ongoing since their formal application was received in 1987 (no typo), that would certainly be an unexpectedly rapid turn of event...
I'm guessing that those financial bods/investors who have reportedly commissioned private polling will have tried to replicate or copy the model that John Curtice used at the GE. I don't know the details etc but I think the idea is his team used was to poll enough marginal/key/representative areas that they could extrapolate from these with confidence to the UK as a whole.
A model like this where you could analyse the results as they were coming in would provide a solid basis for betting and trading with confidence. But whether those who have commissioned these private polls are using people who know what they're doing and whether they have the ability to tap into the results as they go along are just a couple of many unknowns.
I love the tool, and I'll be using it through the night (stop sniggering at the back), but when I look at the predictions for the places I know reasonably well (the area where I was Leader of the Council, the area I live now, the area I was raised in) they just don't feel right.
These are my alternative figures, for England only:
IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.
I used to think that, but this referendum looks to be close enough to indicate that Leave could easily have won it (assuming that they haven't, of course), if only they'd been more serious about the economy.
They've probably thrown away the best chance in a generation, because of that error.
Tomorrow ( for some strange reason ) the Germans are due to discuss Banking Union and there is a paper on the European army.
Theres a fair chance this will be back quicker than anyone thinks.
IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.
I used to think that, but this referendum looks to be close enough to indicate that Leave could easily have won it (assuming that they haven't, of course), if only they'd been more serious about the economy.
They've probably thrown away the best chance in a generation, because of that error.
I think that any economic proposals put forward by Leave can easily be dismissed as unworkable by the Treasury. And a government can call in favours from other heads of government, all making the case that the economic proposals are completely unworkable. In my view, therefore, Leave had to fight with the best weapon it had - in this case public concern over large-scale immigration.
Rather than picking lows of the campaign...there has been way too many...much harder picking the highs.
On the leave side Dan Hanaan has been the standout for me. On remain probably Prescott
The highs were all Tories who at one time or another I have loathed more than any other politician in the UK.
1, John Major for his home truths about Boris plus adding some bite to a feeble campaign 2. David Cameron. Always led from the front. Always polite even under the most ignorant attacks. I misjudged him badly 3. George Osborne. Unlike his feeble colleagues and the leader of the opposition and Theresa May never went into hiding even when things got uncomfortable.
Are you sure you are a progressive Roger? I suppose if you are fully signed up to EU membership the end can reasonably justify the means. But Cameron broke all rules of purdah by pronouncing in front of No.10, warning of WW3. spending millions on the leaflet. Osborne's punishment budget was almost beyond parody. I'll let Major off and I actually have no qualms with raising the NI issue. It's pointless to suggest out won't cause difficulties there.
Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
I still love the Arthur election theme.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
As I mentioned earlier, I used to be a member of the Carlton Club. The first time I ever stayed there overnight, I switched on the TV in my room and it was showing the BBC coverage of the 1983 election. I've always assumed it was the Carlton equivalent of Babe Station (or whatever it's called).
If I just stay up until normal getting up time I'll be shattered (suspect it wouldn't do my appetite much good either).
I may try watching the first half hour or so of coverage, maybe see the Sky papers, then turn on the computer. It's probably that, or go to bed, check how things are on the TV at 3-4am and watch or go back to bed accordingly.
The former method worked well, because I went to bed around 3am, and just after I returned from the morning dog walk, Balls was kind enough to lose his seat as I was watching the coverage/
Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
I still love the Arthur election theme.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=szBdDC5PlI4
As I mentioned earlier, I used to be a member of the Carlton Club. The first time I ever stayed there overnight, I switched on the TV in my room and it was showing the BBC coverage of the 1983 election. I've always assumed it was the Carlton equivalent of Babe Station (or whatever it's called).
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Joining tomorrow? Bit of a leap there:
Senior diplomats in Brussels almost universally think Turkish membership is unthinkable in the foreseeable future. All EU nations hold a veto on accession, some in private are implacably opposed, and France and Austria are legally bound to hold referendums on the issue if Turkey meets its membership criteria.
Turkey has also made barely any headway in meeting the EU’s membership criteria. It has closed just one of 35 negotiating chapters and the European Commission has noted it is going backwards in some areas, particularly regarding human rights and rule of law.
The Sunday Times said Turkey was going to be offered visa free travel to the EU. Perhaps that's what this meeting is about.
Mr. Bunnco, cheers for that info. Is your area expected to be more Remain/Leave? Any ETA on the result? East Anglia must be one of the LEAVIEST places in Britain, no?
In terms of significance, Radio4 have a dedicated journalist at the count to do a live report with result expected at about 2am. Local radio will be there too.
I have been associated with #Remain campaign locally but expect #Leave to win in our district even though, as a Solid Tory area at Parliamentary & District level, there is an irreducible 30pc Labour vote and the LibDems used to run the Council - and they're all remainers.
The thing will be by how much #Leave will win by locally. If it's anything less than overwhelming, we can all go home and #Remain will win on a national basis.
"Roger discovers his inner Tory, you'll be fox hunting next :-) "
Roger's posh and doesn't like the lower classes, so it's his inner being. He'll run in into a phone box (assuming he can still find one) and emerge as 'Super Tory Man.'
Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
1.19 i.e. a worse chance for Republican nominee - which he's already won - than punters thought Remain had earlier.
@nunu If winning is everything, Leave campaigning on immigration was the rational thing to do. You play to your strengths.
If winning is not everything, you consider the nature of the victory that you want. That is where far too many Leavers went astray.
Their biggest mistake is not to have done any serious thinking over the last three years about the economic effects of Brexit and how to deal with them. Just trashing the reputation and integrity of every independent expert is no substitute. The silliest point of the entire campaign was taking umbrage at the President of the United States stating long-standing US policy, when their entire economic argument (such as it was) depended on the US.
IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.
It's trying to have your cake and eat it. By not developing policies they can make claims like Leave will bring down immigration. They don't have to explain the how's or the trade-offs. So you can get lower immigration with Leave but there will no impact on the economy etc. The risk is that people will realise there is nothing behind those claims. Whereas if you had a detail plan for reducing immigration, say, opponents can pick holes in the plan or highlight the drawbacks. Leave went for the empty promise approach. In campaign terms that might have been the approach that maximised their vote. Honesty doesn't necessarily pay.
Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
I still love the Arthur election theme.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
As I mentioned earlier, I used to be a member of the Carlton Club. The first time I ever stayed there overnight, I switched on the TV in my room and it was showing the BBC coverage of the 1983 election. I've always assumed it was the Carlton equivalent of Babe Station (or whatever it's called).
Was that when Peter Snow started displaying his poll?
Told it's been good turnout in my neck of the Tory shires. I'd assume that would be good for Leave, but ANdyJs's calculations seem to indicate it's not quite as strong for leave as I would have thought.
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
And you think that neither Greece nor Cyprus would veto?
Really?
I mean, even if Turkey was willing to change to join the EU (which they're not), it is genuinely inconceivable that it would not be vetoed in Nicosia.
According to the editor of the Cyprus Mail "it would literal suicide for any Cypriot politician to accept Turkey in the EU". He wasn't talking about political suicide, he meant that a politician who accepted Turkey - which invaded Cyprus in living memory, and which has thousand of troops garrisoned there and which has never given any compensation to those who lost property (or worse) - would be killed.
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
I won't make any bets on it but I would be absolutely amazed if Turkey joined the EU in the next decade at least - and probably not in the next 2 decades. Turkey is moving away from rather than towards meeting the accession criteria and the demographics are driving that as well. This really was one scare story that was never going to work. The fact it did at all is actually down to Cameron in part as he refused to make clear what was actually happening with regard to Turkey and so left a vacuum for Leave to fill with rubbish.
Is there an established pattern to voting day: most in morning/evening?
Yes, of course, varying significantly by polling station even within a single ward. It's normally quiet from 7-8 am (if there are enthusiasts queuing at 7 am - as a few places reported this morning - suggests high turnout), there's a morning mini-rush coinciding with the trip to work and the morning school run - it's then a steady trickle through the day, the level depending a lot on the ratio between working and retired - there's a big evening peak probably 5.30-8 pm, which is the busiest time at most polling stations, which declines gradually through the evening. Last hour is usually quiet, although a last minute rush before 10pm - as happened in some places in 2010 and I would anticipate in some places today - is another indicator of high turnout.
Because the biggest rush in most stations is as people come home from work, we wont really know much about turnout until we start getting the evening anecdotes...
p.s. some people believe that more middle class/professionals tend to vote on the way to work whereas more working class/tradespeople tend to vote evening, but I don't have enough personal experience to confirm or otherwise
"I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent.
"
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled
My position has always been that it is entirely sensible and acceptable to be concerned about the scale and pace of mass immigration. Off the top of my head, there's been ~2.8 million net immigrants in the last five years and there will be an additional million or so by 2019.
As Mr Corbyn says, there is no upper limit on EU migration. That is a problem. It's not insoluble, and it's been compounded by deficiencies in the UK's planning, health and welfare systems, so it's not all on the EU.
However, Turkey is a million miles away from joining the EU. It's unlikely to be an issue in my lifetime. Even if we believed John Major's timescale (a decade), it's a complete non sequitur. We would have plenty of options - e.g. transitional controls that would push the issue even further out.
I don't think it's hard to understand, nor do I find it to be hair-splitting.
Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
1.19 i.e. a worse chance for Republican nominee - which he's already won - than punters thought Remain had earlier.
LOL - quite. Political betting markets are gratifyingly irrational.
Told it's been good turnout in my neck of the Tory shires. I'd assume that would be good for Leave, but ANdyJs's calculations seem to indicate it's not quite as strong for leave as I would have thought.
Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
Still a few months for him to have an unfortunate accident.
For me a high turnout indicates that people are passionate about an issue (hence why in May 2015, a choice between l Milliband and safety didn't raise turnout). So if turnout is very high I'd suggest that leave has won (as passion seems to be pretty one-sided, there are very few people that I know that are voting remain due to liking the EU project. L)
Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
I still love the Arthur election theme.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=szBdDC5PlI4
As I mentioned earlier, I used to be a member of the Carlton Club. The first time I ever stayed there overnight, I switched on the TV in my room and it was showing the BBC coverage of the 1983 election. I've always assumed it was the Carlton equivalent of Babe Station (or whatever it's called).
Surely it'd be the 92 election on repeat?
The week after '92 I was a delegate at NUS National Conference; we had t-shirts made that said 5 more years on the front and had the result on the back. A member of the National Executive threatened to kill us. Oh to be young again....
For me a high turnout indicates that people are passionate about an issue (hence why in May 2015, a choice between l Milliband and safety didn't raise turnout). So if turnout is very high I'd suggest that leave has won (as passion seems to be pretty one-sided, there are very few people that I know that are voting remain due to liking the EU project. L)
The higher overall turnout the less differential turnout matters though. The passionate were always going to vote.
Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
Still a few months for him to have an unfortunate accident.
Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
Still a few months for him to have an unfortunate accident.
No, less than one month. The market will be settled on the convention vote.
Assume for a moment a sub-60% turnout: who would this favour I wonder? Might economically worried remainers not be as or more determined to vote as anti-immigrant soft labour Leave voters, wh have a ropey GE turnout record in any event?
It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
It's unusual for the weather in London to be so bad when it's so good in most other parts of the country.
Probably a little bit of assistance for Leave in that. I've just voted though (W9), and there seem to be more people voting than I've noticed before. So I'm guessing turnout will be high-ish even in the rain (70+).
I felt quite good about voting - having really puzzled over the issues and made up my mind after some while feels quite different to the almost inevitable vote in the typical election.
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
I won't make any bets on it but I would be absolutely amazed if Turkey joined the EU in the next decade at least - and probably not in the next 2 decades. Turkey is moving away from rather than towards meeting the accession criteria and the demographics are driving that as well. This really was one scare story that was never going to work. The fact it did at all is actually down to Cameron in part as he refused to make clear what was actually happening with regard to Turkey and so left a vacuum for Leave to fill with rubbish.
Cameron wanted to be Turkey's friend. "Oh yes, of course we support your membership." He thought that he could reap the benefits of supporting them, safe in the knowledge that it would never happen.
Essentially, he was being what he is: a disingenuous politician.
But, as you say, it is almost inconceivable Turkey will join in the medium term. Even ignoring Greece and Cyprus, does anyone really think - any French or Dutch government, with the PVV or FN breathing down their necks - would actually sign the accession treaty?
When I voted, around 9am in Sheffield, the polling station was about as busy as at the last local election.
My preferred outcome would be a very narrow Remain win, probably under a 1% lead. Hopefully, that would shock the EU into taking the UK's complaints seriously, prompting much needed reforms.
Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
Still a few months for him to have an unfortunate accident.
No, less than one month. The market will be settled on the convention vote.
I do hope the presidential market gets trimmed a bit at the same time (Particularly the Democrats)
All the Remainers of Hackney must be looking outside and deciding they don't fancy getting their fixed wheel bike wet...
That link however mentions disruption to polling in places as disparate as South London and Kent.
What are the chances of Dave reopening the polling stations tomorrow for all those in London who have been prevented from voting because they got wet feet?
Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
All the Remainers of Hackney must be looking outside and deciding they don't fancy getting their fixed wheel bike wet...
That link however mentions disruption to polling in places as disparate as South London and Kent.
What are the chances of Dave reopening the polling stations tomorrow for all those in London who have been prevented from voting because they got wet feet?
EVERYONE I know is voting. This is a wide cross section too right through ABCDEFGHIs. Another person I had down as a probable non voter heading to the polls on facebook now (Leave I'd guess but unsure)
It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
It's unusual for the weather in London to be so bad when it's so good in most other parts of the country.
The weather targeting is so poor it must be under the control of the Americans. Surely it must be possible to rain on Havering, Kent and Essex without hitting large areas of the Capital as well?
"I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent.
"
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled
My position has always been that it is entirely sensible and acceptable to be concerned about the scale and pace of mass immigration. Off the top of my head, there's been ~2.8 million net immigrants in the last five years and there will be an additional million or so by 2019.
As Mr Corbyn says, there is no upper limit on EU migration. That is a problem. It's not insoluble, and it's been compounded by deficiencies in the UK's planning, health and welfare systems, so it's not all on the EU.
However, Turkey is a million miles away from joining the EU. It's unlikely to be an issue in my lifetime. Even if we believed John Major's timescale (a decade), it's a complete non sequitur. We would have plenty of options - e.g. transitional controls that would push the issue even further out.
I don't think it's hard to understand, nor do I find it to be hair-splitting. My comment starts here.
I cannot imagine Greece and Cyprus NOT vetoing Turkey. And Bulgaria will not, I’m sure, be far behind.
Jesus was clearly a latter day lefty Brexiteer. His whole ministry was clearly an attempt to provoke Galilexit.
That's why it's raining in London and nowhere else! When you have the almighty on your side then George Osborne looks like a rather less impressive ally...
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
I won't make any bets on it but I would be absolutely amazed if Turkey joined the EU in the next decade at least - and probably not in the next 2 decades. Turkey is moving away from rather than towards meeting the accession criteria and the demographics are driving that as well. This really was one scare story that was never going to work. The fact it did at all is actually down to Cameron in part as he refused to make clear what was actually happening with regard to Turkey and so left a vacuum for Leave to fill with rubbish.
Cameron was just playing the diplomatic game knowing that he'd (for the reasons set out below) be well down in the vetoing queue. Sound diplomacy and Gove et al know that (or if they don't they're fools).
Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
Darth Vader was the greatest project manager of all time, don't even argue.
I think globalisation has been excellent for poor people around the world, and we should welcome that. It's an undeniable good thing that countries where people starved in living memory now have reasonable standards of living.
But, I think it stopped being a good thing for people in rich countries about 15 years ago.
I don't think that's the point. People in rich countries don't like globalisation. So it's just going to go away and they can carry on as before? It's the world we live in and the kind thing is to help people adapt. Leaving the EU as a part of that globalisation is at best displacement activity and probably makes things more difficult. On the other hand pretending that globalisation only has winners discredits any good you might do.
People in rich countries vote for globalisation on Amazon every day. Each time they choose buy something made in Vietnam or China, they vote for globalisation.
Said people then complain about the loss of local manufacturing jobs.
Globalisation is good. I have strong family connections with China. In my lifetime, my relatives , who are very ordinary people - workers in factories and so on - have gone from having tightly rationed poor quality food in just sufficient quantities to really quite comfortable lifestyles. They all the food they want, consumer goods, refrigerators, air conditioners. Some have cars. Their children receive excellent educations and numbers of them are going onto university. They are typical of perhaps 70% of Chinese and nearly 20% of the world's population. It's not universal because there are losers in China too, but very impressive nonetheless.
Someone's not a fan of the U.K. And this whole nationwide vote business.
Look, I don't like London either, but it's ok if their votes tip us over into Remain. And Copland might have been taken out despite voting in, us being in despite voting out is not unreasonable.
Back from Paris. Very tired. Pouring with rain here. Should I bother?
You predicted a Leave vote so if you don't want to sink to my levels of predictive oblivion you better put your wellies on and do your civic duty
Eek...hadn't thoight of that (!!). Rain has abated temporarily....had better mount the two wheeled steed and do the dirty deed at the Hersham sports and Social Club!
Mr. D, bah, Palpatine was a figurehead, Vader's the chap who actually got his hands dirty.
Mr. T, when Yorkshire was flooded in 2007 a chap got trapped. Foot in a drain or something. He didn't drown, he died from exposure (rescuers provided a snorkel, effectively, so he could breathe, but they couldn't free him and he was surrounded by water for hours).
Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
LOL. Indeed
Also, enjoyed the fact all the baddies in the latest film were English.
Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
Darth Vader was the greatest project manager of all time, don't even argue.
Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
Darth Vader was the greatest project manager of all time, don't even argue.
One of the highlights of the campaign for me has been the outstanding reporting of John Harris. Surprising perhaps for a thatcherite tory to be praising a Guardian journalist, but his writing has been excellent, and provides much food for thought for leaver and remainer alike. Remainers particularly.
Comments
"I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent."
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled
Well since talks having been ongoing since their formal application was received in 1987 (no typo), that would certainly be an unexpectedly rapid turn of event...
A model like this where you could analyse the results as they were coming in would provide a solid basis for betting and trading with confidence. But whether those who have commissioned these private polls are using people who know what they're doing and whether they have the ability to tap into the results as they go along are just a couple of many unknowns.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
Theres a fair chance this will be back quicker than anyone thinks.
I think most of the UK, bar London and the SE, seems to be having a pleasant summer's day. Bright and warm here in Manchester, low 20s I'd guess.
Regional Increases in the Electoral Roll (since last May)
SE England.............. 63,598
SW England............. 57,243
East England........... 33,128
East Midlands...........30,853
Northern Ireland...... 24,190
London.................... 16,459
West Midlands.......... 13,914
Yorks and Humber....11,514
NE England................10,501
NW England................. 7,505
Wales..................... - 11,697
Scotland................. -112,634
If I just stay up until normal getting up time I'll be shattered (suspect it wouldn't do my appetite much good either).
I may try watching the first half hour or so of coverage, maybe see the Sky papers, then turn on the computer. It's probably that, or go to bed, check how things are on the TV at 3-4am and watch or go back to bed accordingly.
The former method worked well, because I went to bed around 3am, and just after I returned from the morning dog walk, Balls was kind enough to lose his seat as I was watching the coverage/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_the_United_Kingdom#Non-visa_nationals
Roger's posh and doesn't like the lower classes, so it's his inner being. He'll run in into a phone box (assuming he can still find one) and emerge as 'Super Tory Man.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36603508
All the Remainers of Hackney must be looking outside and deciding they don't fancy getting their fixed wheel bike wet...
Really?
I mean, even if Turkey was willing to change to join the EU (which they're not), it is genuinely inconceivable that it would not be vetoed in Nicosia.
According to the editor of the Cyprus Mail "it would literal suicide for any Cypriot politician to accept Turkey in the EU". He wasn't talking about political suicide, he meant that a politician who accepted Turkey - which invaded Cyprus in living memory, and which has thousand of troops garrisoned there and which has never given any compensation to those who lost property (or worse) - would be killed.
Because the biggest rush in most stations is as people come home from work, we wont really know much about turnout until we start getting the evening anecdotes...
p.s. some people believe that more middle class/professionals tend to vote on the way to work whereas more working class/tradespeople tend to vote evening, but I don't have enough personal experience to confirm or otherwise
http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv-and-specials/20160622-exclusive-eu-referendum-offer-get-3-1-on-remain
Mind you at 5.00am tomorrow that might look like a bad bet.
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled
My position has always been that it is entirely sensible and acceptable to be concerned about the scale and pace of mass immigration. Off the top of my head, there's been ~2.8 million net immigrants in the last five years and there will be an additional million or so by 2019.
As Mr Corbyn says, there is no upper limit on EU migration. That is a problem. It's not insoluble, and it's been compounded by deficiencies in the UK's planning, health and welfare systems, so it's not all on the EU.
However, Turkey is a million miles away from joining the EU. It's unlikely to be an issue in my lifetime. Even if we believed John Major's timescale (a decade), it's a complete non sequitur. We would have plenty of options - e.g. transitional controls that would push the issue even further out.
I don't think it's hard to understand, nor do I find it to be hair-splitting.
I felt quite good about voting - having really puzzled over the issues and made up my mind after some while feels quite different to the almost inevitable vote in the typical election.
Essentially, he was being what he is: a disingenuous politician.
But, as you say, it is almost inconceivable Turkey will join in the medium term. Even ignoring Greece and Cyprus, does anyone really think - any French or Dutch government, with the PVV or FN breathing down their necks - would actually sign the accession treaty?
My preferred outcome would be a very narrow Remain win, probably under a 1% lead. Hopefully, that would shock the EU into taking the UK's complaints seriously, prompting much needed reforms.
:-D
(And welcome back)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/germany-shooting-man-opens-fire-in-cinema-complex-in-viernheim/
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
As Mr Corbyn says, there is no upper limit on EU migration. That is a problem. It's not insoluble, and it's been compounded by deficiencies in the UK's planning, health and welfare systems, so it's not all on the EU.
However, Turkey is a million miles away from joining the EU. It's unlikely to be an issue in my lifetime. Even if we believed John Major's timescale (a decade), it's a complete non sequitur. We would have plenty of options - e.g. transitional controls that would push the issue even further out.
I don't think it's hard to understand, nor do I find it to be hair-splitting.
My comment starts here.
I cannot imagine Greece and Cyprus NOT vetoing Turkey. And Bulgaria will not, I’m sure, be far behind.
That's why it's raining in London and nowhere else! When you have the almighty on your side then George Osborne looks like a rather less impressive ally...
(Note: whole post in jest.)
Laters...
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/745994270998433792
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Cl7cxopNjg
Look, I don't like London either, but it's ok if their votes tip us over into Remain. And Copland might have been taken out despite voting in, us being in despite voting out is not unreasonable.
Mr. T, when Yorkshire was flooded in 2007 a chap got trapped. Foot in a drain or something. He didn't drown, he died from exposure (rescuers provided a snorkel, effectively, so he could breathe, but they couldn't free him and he was surrounded by water for hours).
Also, enjoyed the fact all the baddies in the latest film were English.
Evil Tories like you deserve what you get.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/23/united-kingdom-two-nations-political-chasm-left