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The Sunday Times said Turkey was going to be offered visa free travel to the EU. Perhaps that's what this meeting is about.Stark_Dawning said:
Joining tomorrow? Bit of a leap there:stjohn said:Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b06dadc-323e-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153.html#axzz4CPoHpOMa
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Senior diplomats in Brussels almost universally think Turkish membership is unthinkable in the foreseeable future. All EU nations hold a veto on accession, some in private are implacably opposed, and France and Austria are legally bound to hold referendums on the issue if Turkey meets its membership criteria.
Turkey has also made barely any headway in meeting the EU’s membership criteria. It has closed just one of 35 negotiating chapters and the European Commission has noted it is going backwards in some areas, particularly regarding human rights and rule of law.
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Depends whether you include Cambridgeshire. The southern half of the county is good for Remain.SeanT said:
East Anglia must be one of the LEAVIEST places in Britain, no?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Bunnco, cheers for that info.
Is your area expected to be more Remain/Leave? Any ETA on the result?
I still don't know what I'll do about following it.0 -
David
"I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent."
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled0 -
Follow it on PB. I shall be your host this evening and until 7amMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Bunnco, cheers for that info.
Is your area expected to be more Remain/Leave? Any ETA on the result?
I still don't know what I'll do about following it.0 -
I believe one of the points of Merkel's deal with Turkey is a 're-energisation' of the accession talks, which, as others have mentioned, have languished for the last eleven years or so.El_Dave said:
The Sunday Times said Turkey was going to be offered visa free travel to the EU. Perhaps that's what this meeting is about.Stark_Dawning said:
Joining tomorrow? Bit of a leap there:stjohn said:Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b06dadc-323e-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153.html#axzz4CPoHpOMa
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Senior diplomats in Brussels almost universally think Turkish membership is unthinkable in the foreseeable future. All EU nations hold a veto on accession, some in private are implacably opposed, and France and Austria are legally bound to hold referendums on the issue if Turkey meets its membership criteria.
Turkey has also made barely any headway in meeting the EU’s membership criteria. It has closed just one of 35 negotiating chapters and the European Commission has noted it is going backwards in some areas, particularly regarding human rights and rule of law.0 -
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.stjohn said:Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b06dadc-323e-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153.html#axzz4CPoHpOMa
Well since talks having been ongoing since their formal application was received in 1987 (no typo), that would certainly be an unexpectedly rapid turn of event...0 -
I am gagging for something to leak from either camp.0
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I'm guessing that those financial bods/investors who have reportedly commissioned private polling will have tried to replicate or copy the model that John Curtice used at the GE. I don't know the details etc but I think the idea is his team used was to poll enough marginal/key/representative areas that they could extrapolate from these with confidence to the UK as a whole.
A model like this where you could analyse the results as they were coming in would provide a solid basis for betting and trading with confidence. But whether those who have commissioned these private polls are using people who know what they're doing and whether they have the ability to tap into the results as they go along are just a couple of many unknowns.0 -
These are my alternative figures, for England only:DearPB said:
I love the tool, and I'll be using it through the night (stop sniggering at the back), but when I look at the predictions for the places I know reasonably well (the area where I was Leader of the Council, the area I live now, the area I was raised in) they just don't feel right.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty is saying 72-28 is likely in Glasgow. Seems a bit high to me.
http://www.cityam.com/243872/eu-referendum-most-important-results-watch
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=00 -
Tomorrow ( for some strange reason ) the Germans are due to discuss Banking Union and there is a paper on the European army.Richard_Nabavi said:
I used to think that, but this referendum looks to be close enough to indicate that Leave could easily have won it (assuming that they haven't, of course), if only they'd been more serious about the economy.Sean_F said:IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.
They've probably thrown away the best chance in a generation, because of that error.
Theres a fair chance this will be back quicker than anyone thinks.0 -
I think that any economic proposals put forward by Leave can easily be dismissed as unworkable by the Treasury. And a government can call in favours from other heads of government, all making the case that the economic proposals are completely unworkable. In my view, therefore, Leave had to fight with the best weapon it had - in this case public concern over large-scale immigration.Richard_Nabavi said:
I used to think that, but this referendum looks to be close enough to indicate that Leave could easily have won it (assuming that they haven't, of course), if only they'd been more serious about the economy.Sean_F said:IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.
They've probably thrown away the best chance in a generation, because of that error.0 -
I imagine a bit of heavy rain in London will be bigger headline news down there than the EU vote!DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
I think most of the UK, bar London and the SE, seems to be having a pleasant summer's day. Bright and warm here in Manchester, low 20s I'd guess.0 -
ICYMI yesterday:
Regional Increases in the Electoral Roll (since last May)
SE England.............. 63,598
SW England............. 57,243
East England........... 33,128
East Midlands...........30,853
Northern Ireland...... 24,190
London.................... 16,459
West Midlands.......... 13,914
Yorks and Humber....11,514
NE England................10,501
NW England................. 7,505
Wales..................... - 11,697
Scotland................. -112,6340 -
Are you sure you are a progressive Roger? I suppose if you are fully signed up to EU membership the end can reasonably justify the means. But Cameron broke all rules of purdah by pronouncing in front of No.10, warning of WW3. spending millions on the leaflet. Osborne's punishment budget was almost beyond parody. I'll let Major off and I actually have no qualms with raising the NI issue. It's pointless to suggest out won't cause difficulties there.Roger said:
The highs were all Tories who at one time or another I have loathed more than any other politician in the UK.timmo said:
On the leave side Dan Hanaan has been the standout for me.FrancisUrquhart said:Rather than picking lows of the campaign...there has been way too many...much harder picking the highs.
On remain probably Prescott
1, John Major for his home truths about Boris plus adding some bite to a feeble campaign
2. David Cameron. Always led from the front. Always polite even under the most ignorant attacks. I misjudged him badly
3. George Osborne. Unlike his feeble colleagues and the leader of the opposition and Theresa May never went into hiding even when things got uncomfortable.0 -
Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.0
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As I mentioned earlier, I used to be a member of the Carlton Club. The first time I ever stayed there overnight, I switched on the TV in my room and it was showing the BBC coverage of the 1983 election. I've always assumed it was the Carlton equivalent of Babe Station (or whatever it's called).Gravitation said:
I still love the Arthur election theme.Morris_Dancer said:Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szBdDC5PlI40 -
Around this time of day and if it continues, you would have to think so.DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
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Mr. Eagles, it's similar to the GE issue, though.
If I just stay up until normal getting up time I'll be shattered (suspect it wouldn't do my appetite much good either).
I may try watching the first half hour or so of coverage, maybe see the Sky papers, then turn on the computer. It's probably that, or go to bed, check how things are on the TV at 3-4am and watch or go back to bed accordingly.
The former method worked well, because I went to bed around 3am, and just after I returned from the morning dog walk, Balls was kind enough to lose his seat as I was watching the coverage/0 -
Surely it'd be the 92 election on repeat?DearPB said:
As I mentioned earlier, I used to be a member of the Carlton Club. The first time I ever stayed there overnight, I switched on the TV in my room and it was showing the BBC coverage of the 1983 election. I've always assumed it was the Carlton equivalent of Babe Station (or whatever it's called).Gravitation said:
I still love the Arthur election theme.Morris_Dancer said:Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=szBdDC5PlI4
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These are the countries that this currently applies to:El_Dave said:
The Sunday Times said Turkey was going to be offered visa free travel to the EU. Perhaps that's what this meeting is about.Stark_Dawning said:
Joining tomorrow? Bit of a leap there:stjohn said:Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b06dadc-323e-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153.html#axzz4CPoHpOMa
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Senior diplomats in Brussels almost universally think Turkish membership is unthinkable in the foreseeable future. All EU nations hold a veto on accession, some in private are implacably opposed, and France and Austria are legally bound to hold referendums on the issue if Turkey meets its membership criteria.
Turkey has also made barely any headway in meeting the EU’s membership criteria. It has closed just one of 35 negotiating chapters and the European Commission has noted it is going backwards in some areas, particularly regarding human rights and rule of law.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_the_United_Kingdom#Non-visa_nationals0 -
SeanT said:
In terms of significance, Radio4 have a dedicated journalist at the count to do a live report with result expected at about 2am. Local radio will be there too.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Bunnco, cheers for that info.
Is your area expected to be more Remain/Leave? Any ETA on the result?
East Anglia must be one of the LEAVIEST places in Britain, no?
I have been associated with #Remain campaign locally but expect #Leave to win in our district even though, as a Solid Tory area at Parliamentary & District level, there is an irreducible 30pc Labour vote and the LibDems used to run the Council - and they're all remainers.
The thing will be by how much #Leave will win by locally. If it's anything less than overwhelming, we can all go home and #Remain will win on a national basis.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot0 -
The apocalypse we were promised in the event of Leave has come a bit early. It’s a warning to Londoners to get out and vote Remain.Bob__Sykes said:
I imagine a bit of heavy rain in London will be bigger headline news down there than the EU vote!DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
I think most of the UK, bar London and the SE, seems to be having a pleasant summer's day. Bright and warm here in Manchester, low 20s I'd guess.0 -
"Roger discovers his inner Tory, you'll be fox hunting next :-) "
Roger's posh and doesn't like the lower classes, so it's his inner being. He'll run in into a phone box (assuming he can still find one) and emerge as 'Super Tory Man.'0 -
1.19 i.e. a worse chance for Republican nominee - which he's already won - than punters thought Remain had earlier.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
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They're managing to combine it:Bob__Sykes said:
I imagine a bit of heavy rain in London will be bigger headline news down there than the EU vote!DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
I think most of the UK, bar London and the SE, seems to be having a pleasant summer's day. Bright and warm here in Manchester, low 20s I'd guess.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36603508
All the Remainers of Hackney must be looking outside and deciding they don't fancy getting their fixed wheel bike wet...0 -
It's trying to have your cake and eat it. By not developing policies they can make claims like Leave will bring down immigration. They don't have to explain the how's or the trade-offs. So you can get lower immigration with Leave but there will no impact on the economy etc. The risk is that people will realise there is nothing behind those claims. Whereas if you had a detail plan for reducing immigration, say, opponents can pick holes in the plan or highlight the drawbacks. Leave went for the empty promise approach. In campaign terms that might have been the approach that maximised their vote. Honesty doesn't necessarily pay.Sean_F said:
IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.Richard_Nabavi said:
Their biggest mistake is not to have done any serious thinking over the last three years about the economic effects of Brexit and how to deal with them. Just trashing the reputation and integrity of every independent expert is no substitute. The silliest point of the entire campaign was taking umbrage at the President of the United States stating long-standing US policy, when their entire economic argument (such as it was) depended on the US.AlastairMeeks said:@nunu If winning is everything, Leave campaigning on immigration was the rational thing to do. You play to your strengths.
If winning is not everything, you consider the nature of the victory that you want. That is where far too many Leavers went astray.0 -
Was that when Peter Snow started displaying his poll?DearPB said:
As I mentioned earlier, I used to be a member of the Carlton Club. The first time I ever stayed there overnight, I switched on the TV in my room and it was showing the BBC coverage of the 1983 election. I've always assumed it was the Carlton equivalent of Babe Station (or whatever it's called).Gravitation said:
I still love the Arthur election theme.Morris_Dancer said:Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szBdDC5PlI40 -
And you think that neither Greece nor Cyprus would veto?stjohn said:If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Really?
I mean, even if Turkey was willing to change to join the EU (which they're not), it is genuinely inconceivable that it would not be vetoed in Nicosia.
According to the editor of the Cyprus Mail "it would literal suicide for any Cypriot politician to accept Turkey in the EU". He wasn't talking about political suicide, he meant that a politician who accepted Turkey - which invaded Cyprus in living memory, and which has thousand of troops garrisoned there and which has never given any compensation to those who lost property (or worse) - would be killed.0 -
I won't make any bets on it but I would be absolutely amazed if Turkey joined the EU in the next decade at least - and probably not in the next 2 decades. Turkey is moving away from rather than towards meeting the accession criteria and the demographics are driving that as well. This really was one scare story that was never going to work. The fact it did at all is actually down to Cameron in part as he refused to make clear what was actually happening with regard to Turkey and so left a vacuum for Leave to fill with rubbish.stjohn said:
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.0 -
Yes, of course, varying significantly by polling station even within a single ward. It's normally quiet from 7-8 am (if there are enthusiasts queuing at 7 am - as a few places reported this morning - suggests high turnout), there's a morning mini-rush coinciding with the trip to work and the morning school run - it's then a steady trickle through the day, the level depending a lot on the ratio between working and retired - there's a big evening peak probably 5.30-8 pm, which is the busiest time at most polling stations, which declines gradually through the evening. Last hour is usually quiet, although a last minute rush before 10pm - as happened in some places in 2010 and I would anticipate in some places today - is another indicator of high turnout.El_Dave said:Is there an established pattern to voting day: most in morning/evening?
Because the biggest rush in most stations is as people come home from work, we wont really know much about turnout until we start getting the evening anecdotes...
p.s. some people believe that more middle class/professionals tend to vote on the way to work whereas more working class/tradespeople tend to vote evening, but I don't have enough personal experience to confirm or otherwise0 -
Anyone NOT got a Betfair account?
http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv-and-specials/20160622-exclusive-eu-referendum-offer-get-3-1-on-remain
Mind you at 5.00am tomorrow that might look like a bad bet.
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"Roger said:David
"I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent.
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled
My position has always been that it is entirely sensible and acceptable to be concerned about the scale and pace of mass immigration. Off the top of my head, there's been ~2.8 million net immigrants in the last five years and there will be an additional million or so by 2019.
As Mr Corbyn says, there is no upper limit on EU migration. That is a problem. It's not insoluble, and it's been compounded by deficiencies in the UK's planning, health and welfare systems, so it's not all on the EU.
However, Turkey is a million miles away from joining the EU. It's unlikely to be an issue in my lifetime. Even if we believed John Major's timescale (a decade), it's a complete non sequitur. We would have plenty of options - e.g. transitional controls that would push the issue even further out.
I don't think it's hard to understand, nor do I find it to be hair-splitting.0 -
LOL - quite. Political betting markets are gratifyingly irrational.TheWhiteRabbit said:
1.19 i.e. a worse chance for Republican nominee - which he's already won - than punters thought Remain had earlier.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
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Dave and MI7 have just ordered 50,000 gallons of tippex to alter Leave ballot papersDanSmith said:I am gagging for something to leak from either camp.
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Still a few months for him to have an unfortunate accident.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
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For me a high turnout indicates that people are passionate about an issue (hence why in May 2015, a choice between l Milliband and safety didn't raise turnout). So if turnout is very high I'd suggest that leave has won (as passion seems to be pretty one-sided, there are very few people that I know that are voting remain due to liking the EU project. L)0
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Still raining here in SW London but the worst has passed. It may have arrived too early to significantly affect turnout.0
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That link however mentions disruption to polling in places as disparate as South London and Kent.DearPB said:
They're managing to combine it:Bob__Sykes said:
I imagine a bit of heavy rain in London will be bigger headline news down there than the EU vote!DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
I think most of the UK, bar London and the SE, seems to be having a pleasant summer's day. Bright and warm here in Manchester, low 20s I'd guess.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36603508
All the Remainers of Hackney must be looking outside and deciding they don't fancy getting their fixed wheel bike wet...0 -
The week after '92 I was a delegate at NUS National Conference; we had t-shirts made that said 5 more years on the front and had the result on the back. A member of the National Executive threatened to kill us. Oh to be young again....RobD said:
Surely it'd be the 92 election on repeat?DearPB said:
As I mentioned earlier, I used to be a member of the Carlton Club. The first time I ever stayed there overnight, I switched on the TV in my room and it was showing the BBC coverage of the 1983 election. I've always assumed it was the Carlton equivalent of Babe Station (or whatever it's called).Gravitation said:
I still love the Arthur election theme.Morris_Dancer said:Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=szBdDC5PlI40 -
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Kingston (V strong remain) and Barking (Leavey ?) would cancel each other out I'd have thought ?DearPB said:
They're managing to combine it:Bob__Sykes said:
I imagine a bit of heavy rain in London will be bigger headline news down there than the EU vote!DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
I think most of the UK, bar London and the SE, seems to be having a pleasant summer's day. Bright and warm here in Manchester, low 20s I'd guess.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36603508
All the Remainers of Hackney must be looking outside and deciding they don't fancy getting their fixed wheel bike wet...
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The higher overall turnout the less differential turnout matters though. The passionate were always going to vote.Chameleon said:For me a high turnout indicates that people are passionate about an issue (hence why in May 2015, a choice between l Milliband and safety didn't raise turnout). So if turnout is very high I'd suggest that leave has won (as passion seems to be pretty one-sided, there are very few people that I know that are voting remain due to liking the EU project. L)
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27 days or so.FrankBooth said:
Still a few months for him to have an unfortunate accident.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
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Bic (owner of Tippex) shares up 2%. Suspicious?TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave and MI7 have just ordered 50,000 gallons of tippex to alter Leave ballot papersDanSmith said:I am gagging for something to leak from either camp.
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No, less than one month. The market will be settled on the convention vote.FrankBooth said:
Still a few months for him to have an unfortunate accident.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
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Now you've got the Arnold Rimmer song going round in my head, damn your eyes....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
For sterling that is the normal afternoon pattern on a good day with the reverse on a bad. just profit taking.David_Evershed said:FTSE and sterling losing some of their earlier gains.
Sleazy REMAIN on the slide.0 -
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Sorry to sound like Sian Lloyd but I have never seen rain like this and I've lived in the sub-tropics.0
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Assume for a moment a sub-60% turnout: who would this favour I wonder? Might economically worried remainers not be as or more determined to vote as anti-immigrant soft labour Leave voters, wh have a ropey GE turnout record in any event?0
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Probably a little bit of assistance for Leave in that. I've just voted though (W9), and there seem to be more people voting than I've noticed before. So I'm guessing turnout will be high-ish even in the rain (70+).AndyJS said:
It's unusual for the weather in London to be so bad when it's so good in most other parts of the country.DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
I felt quite good about voting - having really puzzled over the issues and made up my mind after some while feels quite different to the almost inevitable vote in the typical election.0 -
Just a note on turnout: our borough has 88% postal voters turnout as of lunchtime today (may still be some brought to polling stations.)0
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Cameron wanted to be Turkey's friend. "Oh yes, of course we support your membership." He thought that he could reap the benefits of supporting them, safe in the knowledge that it would never happen.Richard_Tyndall said:
I won't make any bets on it but I would be absolutely amazed if Turkey joined the EU in the next decade at least - and probably not in the next 2 decades. Turkey is moving away from rather than towards meeting the accession criteria and the demographics are driving that as well. This really was one scare story that was never going to work. The fact it did at all is actually down to Cameron in part as he refused to make clear what was actually happening with regard to Turkey and so left a vacuum for Leave to fill with rubbish.stjohn said:
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Essentially, he was being what he is: a disingenuous politician.
But, as you say, it is almost inconceivable Turkey will join in the medium term. Even ignoring Greece and Cyprus, does anyone really think - any French or Dutch government, with the PVV or FN breathing down their necks - would actually sign the accession treaty?0 -
When I voted, around 9am in Sheffield, the polling station was about as busy as at the last local election.
My preferred outcome would be a very narrow Remain win, probably under a 1% lead. Hopefully, that would shock the EU into taking the UK's complaints seriously, prompting much needed reforms.0 -
Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.0
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I should know this, but what's the bottom-left piccie from?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I do hope the presidential market gets trimmed a bit at the same time (Particularly the Democrats)Richard_Nabavi said:
No, less than one month. The market will be settled on the convention vote.FrankBooth said:
Still a few months for him to have an unfortunate accident.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in other news, the odds on Trump for GOP nomineee have dropped back to 1.09-1.10 compared with a silly 1.19 or so a few days ago. Still rather long, IMO.
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Doctor Who, those are Time LordsJosiasJessop said:
I should know this, but what's the bottom-left piccie from?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. Jessop, it's New Doctor Who, the Time Lords on Gallifrey (being led by a dodgy Rassilon[sp]).0
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What are the chances of Dave reopening the polling stations tomorrow for all those in London who have been prevented from voting because they got wet feet?RealBritain said:
That link however mentions disruption to polling in places as disparate as South London and Kent.DearPB said:
They're managing to combine it:Bob__Sykes said:
I imagine a bit of heavy rain in London will be bigger headline news down there than the EU vote!DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
I think most of the UK, bar London and the SE, seems to be having a pleasant summer's day. Bright and warm here in Manchester, low 20s I'd guess.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36603508
All the Remainers of Hackney must be looking outside and deciding they don't fancy getting their fixed wheel bike wet...
:-D0 -
The TimeLords from Doctor WhoJosiasJessop said:
I should know this, but what's the bottom-left piccie from?TheScreamingEagles said:
(And welcome back)0 -
Reports that the gunman didn't have a gun and the injuries were caused by tear gas used to storm the building and kill him.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/germany-shooting-man-opens-fire-in-cinema-complex-in-viernheim/0 -
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.0 -
I prefer to have the counties in the palm of my hand...RobD said:
You can do it on the computer nowadays!Charles said:
I grew up with wooden jigsaws of the the counties - it doesn't work as wellSandyRentool said:
I thought everyone knew that???Charles said:
How did you figure that out?!SandyRentool said:
Haltwhistle, Northumberland is the centre of mainland Britain if you cut out a map and balance it on a pin.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, what's the problem? Everyone knows Yorkshire's the heartland of England and the UK.
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All the addition pens they're selling to the tin foil hatters!RobD said:
Bic (owner of Tippex) shares up 2%. Suspicious?TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave and MI7 have just ordered 50,000 gallons of tippex to alter Leave ballot papersDanSmith said:I am gagging for something to leak from either camp.
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Don't give him ideas.MattW said:
What are the chances of Dave reopening the polling stations tomorrow for all those in London who have been prevented from voting because they got wet feet?RealBritain said:
That link however mentions disruption to polling in places as disparate as South London and Kent.DearPB said:
They're managing to combine it:Bob__Sykes said:
I imagine a bit of heavy rain in London will be bigger headline news down there than the EU vote!DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
I think most of the UK, bar London and the SE, seems to be having a pleasant summer's day. Bright and warm here in Manchester, low 20s I'd guess.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36603508
All the Remainers of Hackney must be looking outside and deciding they don't fancy getting their fixed wheel bike wet...
:-D0 -
EVERYONE I know is voting. This is a wide cross section too right through ABCDEFGHIs. Another person I had down as a probable non voter heading to the polls on facebook now (Leave I'd guess but unsure)0
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The weather targeting is so poor it must be under the control of the Americans. Surely it must be possible to rain on Havering, Kent and Essex without hitting large areas of the Capital as well?AndyJS said:
It's unusual for the weather in London to be so bad when it's so good in most other parts of the country.DearPB said:It is now apocalyptically dark and wet in London - it has to affect turnout
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My position has always been that it is entirely sensible and acceptable to be concerned about the scale and pace of mass immigration. Off the top of my head, there's been ~2.8 million net immigrants in the last five years and there will be an additional million or so by 2019.John_M said:
"Roger said:David
"I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent.
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled
As Mr Corbyn says, there is no upper limit on EU migration. That is a problem. It's not insoluble, and it's been compounded by deficiencies in the UK's planning, health and welfare systems, so it's not all on the EU.
However, Turkey is a million miles away from joining the EU. It's unlikely to be an issue in my lifetime. Even if we believed John Major's timescale (a decade), it's a complete non sequitur. We would have plenty of options - e.g. transitional controls that would push the issue even further out.
I don't think it's hard to understand, nor do I find it to be hair-splitting.
My comment starts here.
I cannot imagine Greece and Cyprus NOT vetoing Turkey. And Bulgaria will not, I’m sure, be far behind.0 -
Jesus was clearly a latter day lefty Brexiteer. His whole ministry was clearly an attempt to provoke Galilexit.
That's why it's raining in London and nowhere else! When you have the almighty on your side then George Osborne looks like a rather less impressive ally...
(Note: whole post in jest.)0 -
Philistine! Palpatine was the ruler of the empire!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
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Right, that's me off for a while. I won't be voting until around 21:30, so should be able to give a decent report of Leeds turnout when I get home.
Laters...0 -
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Everyone should hope Leave wins - then there'll be a referendum in the Netherlands we can all enjoy.0
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6 years of austerity and we're still funding MI7?TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave and MI7 have just ordered 50,000 gallons of tippex to alter Leave ballot papersDanSmith said:I am gagging for something to leak from either camp.
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It's from Doctor Who, showing the High Council of the Time Lords, a society resembling an Oxbridge college, but with near absolute power.JosiasJessop said:
I should know this, but what's the bottom-left piccie from?0 -
Cameron was just playing the diplomatic game knowing that he'd (for the reasons set out below) be well down in the vetoing queue. Sound diplomacy and Gove et al know that (or if they don't they're fools).Richard_Tyndall said:
I won't make any bets on it but I would be absolutely amazed if Turkey joined the EU in the next decade at least - and probably not in the next 2 decades. Turkey is moving away from rather than towards meeting the accession criteria and the demographics are driving that as well. This really was one scare story that was never going to work. The fact it did at all is actually down to Cameron in part as he refused to make clear what was actually happening with regard to Turkey and so left a vacuum for Leave to fill with rubbish.stjohn said:
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.0 -
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Darth Vader was the greatest project manager of all time, don't even argue.kle4 said:
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Cl7cxopNjg0 -
Globalisation is good. I have strong family connections with China. In my lifetime, my relatives , who are very ordinary people - workers in factories and so on - have gone from having tightly rationed poor quality food in just sufficient quantities to really quite comfortable lifestyles. They all the food they want, consumer goods, refrigerators, air conditioners. Some have cars. Their children receive excellent educations and numbers of them are going onto university. They are typical of perhaps 70% of Chinese and nearly 20% of the world's population. It's not universal because there are losers in China too, but very impressive nonetheless.rcs1000 said:
People in rich countries vote for globalisation on Amazon every day. Each time they choose buy something made in Vietnam or China, they vote for globalisation.FF43 said:
I don't think that's the point. People in rich countries don't like globalisation. So it's just going to go away and they can carry on as before? It's the world we live in and the kind thing is to help people adapt. Leaving the EU as a part of that globalisation is at best displacement activity and probably makes things more difficult. On the other hand pretending that globalisation only has winners discredits any good you might do.Sean_F said:
I think globalisation has been excellent for poor people around the world, and we should welcome that. It's an undeniable good thing that countries where people starved in living memory now have reasonable standards of living.Richard_Nabavi said:
.Tissue_Price said:.
But, I think it stopped being a good thing for people in rich countries about 15 years ago.
Said people then complain about the loss of local manufacturing jobs.0 -
Someone's not a fan of the U.K. And this whole nationwide vote business.SouthamObserver said:
Look, I don't like London either, but it's ok if their votes tip us over into Remain. And Copland might have been taken out despite voting in, us being in despite voting out is not unreasonable.0 -
Is this for real?!SouthamObserver said:0 -
Eek...hadn't thoight of that (!!). Rain has abated temporarily....had better mount the two wheeled steed and do the dirty deed at the Hersham sports and Social Club!Roger said:
You predicted a Leave vote so if you don't want to sink to my levels of predictive oblivion you better put your wellies on and do your civic dutyJohnO said:Back from Paris. Very tired. Pouring with rain here. Should I bother?
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It's MI14 who are the key players....TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave and MI7 have just ordered 50,000 gallons of tippex to alter Leave ballot papersDanSmith said:I am gagging for something to leak from either camp.
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Mr. D, bah, Palpatine was a figurehead, Vader's the chap who actually got his hands dirty.
Mr. T, when Yorkshire was flooded in 2007 a chap got trapped. Foot in a drain or something. He didn't drown, he died from exposure (rescuers provided a snorkel, effectively, so he could breathe, but they couldn't free him and he was surrounded by water for hours).0 -
LOL. Indeedkle4 said:
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
Also, enjoyed the fact all the baddies in the latest film were English.0 -
Sounds reasonable and Gods come to the party with an unexpected Monsoon.SouthamObserver said:
Evil Tories like you deserve what you get.0 -
John_M said:
Darth Vader was the greatest project manager of all time, don't even argue.kle4 said:
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Cl7cxopNjg
Only because he was able to call on the authority of his boss.John_M said:
Darth Vader was the greatest project manager of all time, don't even argue.kle4 said:
If you leave out the throttlings, I'm sure he was an effective man manager. A wiz with spreadsheets too, I'd bet.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's mostly good, except I bet Darth Vader would be a more popular leader than Juncker by a mile.
That said, the emperor was far more impressive - he manipulated into being a galactic civil war such that no matter which side won, he would be in charge and with more power, then ruled with an impressive degree of control for 20 years. It was a good run, brought down by a blindspot toward teddy bears.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Cl7cxopNjg0 -
One of the highlights of the campaign for me has been the outstanding reporting of John Harris. Surprising perhaps for a thatcherite tory to be praising a Guardian journalist, but his writing has been excellent, and provides much food for thought for leaver and remainer alike. Remainers particularly.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/23/united-kingdom-two-nations-political-chasm-left0 -
Vey slow news today. No footie, no cricket. Glasto starts tomorrow. Anything else going on?0
This discussion has been closed.