politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polling chart

System · June 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polling chart

politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress
with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · June 2016

Boom!

TheScreamingEagles · June 2016

EICIPM

Scrapheap_as_was · June 2016

Cheating remainian

DaemonBarber · June 2016

Lolz if it is 55 vs 45
Mirror of indyref, the conspiracy theories will be off the chart

Scott_P · June 2016

10s on Betfair...

Scott_P · June 2016

Seems like a good time to post this

@reactionlife: WHY BREXIT WILL WIN - according to top referendum number-cruncher - full analysis: https://t.co/BpSgYwoRZa - @reactionlife #EURef

Scott_P · June 2016

DaemonBarber said:
Lolz if it is 55 vs 45
Mirror of indyref, the conspiracy theories will be off the chart

https://twitter.com/newsinbrie/status/745926613557186561

PlatoSaid · June 2016

Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

EICIPM.

Or is it.

GICIPM?

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.

It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.

Recidivist · June 2016

I have just read an analysis that is hinting that the majority of Labour voters backed remain by quite a margin. That will be a relief in some quarters if confirmed. Imagine how pissed off Jeremy would be if the one left wing policy he dropped had proved to be a vote winner after all.

old_labour · June 2016

Out to 8.4 on Betfair.

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

Incredible how many are investing based on opinion poll results given the lack of a previous election to base it on and what happened last year - not to mention all the mid match methodology changes

TheScreamingEagles · June 2016

DaemonBarber said:
Lolz if it is 55 vs 45
Mirror of indyref, the conspiracy theories will be off the chart

WeAreThe45

Jobabob · June 2016

The best line of the campaign goes to Ruth Davidson.

Ruth: "Boris, name me one country, just one, that has said it will give us a better deal if we are out of the EU?"

Boris: "Er..."

AramintaMoonbeamQC · June 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:
Lolz if it is 55 vs 45
Mirror of indyref, the conspiracy theories will be off the chart
WeAreThe45

It isn't a fun place to be, so I hope for everyone's sake that the result is at least numerically different.

Mortimer · June 2016

Scott_P said:
10s on Betfair...

Darn, missed the false ceiling. Managed some trading down to 8, but didn't get 10s!

david_herdson · June 2016

Leave has now traded as high as 10.5 .

In other betfair news, the implied expected turnout from that market is 71-72%, which would be the biggest UK poll since at least the 1997 GE (which was 71.3%).

David_Evershed · June 2016

SCENARIO

- Most people registering late were not new young electors but dupliclates of existing voters

- Young people turning up to vote less than they told the pollsters because on holiday or lazy

- Older people made more determined to vote by the bitter campaign

- Shy LEAVE voters too ashamed about Jo Cox to admit it to pollsters

- Rain causes luke warm REMAIN supporters not to bother to vote

- Postal votes were cast at the time LEAVE were well ahead

- UKIP repeat their GOTV operation when they won the European elections

RESULT. LEAVE win 55/45.

old_labour · June 2016

Mike is quoted in this New York Times article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/23/business/international/brexit-britain-gambling-bookies.html?_r=0

david_herdson · June 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.

Do you expect any of the marginally engaged to notice today's polls?

currystar · June 2016

Its all Camerons fault!!!

TheScreamingEagles · June 2016

I'm still nervous.

david_herdson · June 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Incredible how many are investing based on opinion poll results given the lack of a previous election to base it on and what happened last year - not to mention all the mid match methodology changes

It's not just that; it's how every Remain-positive poll shifts the market but a Leave-positive poll doesn't do the same the other way.

Scott_P · June 2016

https://twitter.com/coral/status/745940007454662658

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

david_herdson said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.
Do you expect any of the marginally engaged to notice today's polls?

No but if it had been leave ahead 55-45 the wailing in the broadcast media and plummeting of pound and shares would have woken a few of them up.

tlg86 · June 2016

I disagree with Mike. If Leave wins by more than a few points (or Remain wins by more than 15) it will be bad, but at least there isn't obvious herding going on like last year.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2016

david_herdson said:
Leave has now traded as high as 10.5 .

In other betfair news, the implied expected turnout from that market is 71-72%, which would be the biggest UK poll since at least the 1997 GE (which was 71.3%).

£6 million matched in the last 14 hours.

Gobsmacked

Jobabob · June 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.

Leave widely available now at 9+.

Put your house on those lazy teenagers Paul

PlatoSaid · June 2016

Lol

Theo Bertram
Does no one at Labour HQ check copy and image any more? Do they just not care? Or are they just ignored? https://t.co/boFgOhLeLk

Jobabob · June 2016

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/coral/status/745940007454662658

LOL

MarqueeMark · June 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm still nervous.

You are right to be.....

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

Jobabob said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.
Leave widely available now at 9+.

Put your house on those lazy teenagers Paul

Im on my way to the bookies as you speak

kle4 · June 2016

Wanderer said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

Bob__Sykes said:
I ended at the polling station this morning where I began in February - bitterly torn, heart saying one thing, the head saying another, and irritated and annoyed that we're having a vote at this time on this question, and feeling let down by the Prime Minister, who ultimately is responsible for this, his hopeless renegotiation and for the fallout that follows whatever the outcome.

I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.

I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
Hear hear.

NEVER AGAIN.
This is bollocks. All this bleating, mewling crap about the referendum being awful, divisive, nasty, blah blah. This is democracy, it is rough and ready. This vote is especially rough because we, as a nation, are deciding our future. But WE are deciding. The people. As it should be.

The alternative: of smooth, technocratic consensus, where even the most fundamental decisions are taken by an elite, is what they have in North Korea.
I think this question, and other big constitutional questions, need to be decided by referendum. I very much want us to remain a representative democracy though, not one where bullshit "propositions" are subject to plebiscites every ten minutes.

I would prefer more clarity on what questions need to be decided by referendum though.

Anorak · June 2016

I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.

JosiasJessop · June 2016

I went out to vote at 07.30 to find the station far busier than I have ever seen it before - but like others below, it was not my usual time for voting. We have had many leaflets through the doors in the last few days, including a couple yesterday (*), and several neighbours have put posters for both campaigns in their windows. People I talk to seem much more involved and opinionated with this campaign than even the GE.

I think here in South Cambridgeshire will be fairly heavily remain; I'd be amazed if Cambridge itself voted leave; the local paper has been heavily for remain, and the university makes a leave vote unlikely.

My on-the-day guess is that there wil be a very high turnout: >80% would not surprise me. I hope I'm right, as the more people who vote, and the bigger the margin, the better for the country. If it is closed than 5% either way then we are going to be in for some very interesting times. 10% or more would be better for the country.

(*) I wonder if a high PV turnout in this referendum will mean the traditional late flurry of leaflets will be lessened as combatants realise that they do not catch people who send their PVs in early.

RobD · June 2016

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.

I for one look forward to be called PB Tory Scum on a regular basis.

logical_song · June 2016

Why 'fascist' Farage shouldn't be a prefect.
Is this genuine, noticed on Peter Davison's twitter:
https://www.scribd.com/doc/169454715/Nigel-Farage-1981-school-letter#fullscreen

GIN1138 · June 2016

Euro is back on the agenda from tomorrow.

AndyJS · June 2016

JosiasJessop said:
I went out to vote at 07.30 to find the station far busier than I have ever seen it before - but like others below, it was not my usual time for voting. We have had many leaflets through the doors in the last few days, including a couple yesterday (*), and several neighbours have put posters for both campaigns in their windows. People I talk to seem much more involved and opinionated with this campaign than even the GE.

I think here in South Cambridgeshire will be fairly heavily remain; I'd be amazed if Cambridge itself voted leave; the local paper has been heavily for remain, and the university makes a leave vote unlikely.

My on-the-day guess is that there wil be a very high turnout: >80% would not surprise me. I hope I'm right, as the more people who vote, and the bigger the margin, the better for the country. If it is closed than 5% either way then we are going to be in for some very interesting times. 10% or more would be better for the country.

(*) I wonder if a high PV turnout in this referendum will mean the traditional late flurry of leaflets will be lessened as combatants realise that they do not catch people who send their PVs in early.

My figures are Cambridge 70% Remain and South Cambs 56% Remain with England pegged at 50/50.

MyBurningEars · June 2016

JosiasJessop said:
I went out to vote at 07.30 to find the station far busier than I have ever seen it before - but like others below, it was not my usual time for voting. We have had many leaflets through the doors in the last few days, including a couple yesterday (*), and several neighbours have put posters for both campaigns in their windows. People I talk to seem much more involved and opinionated with this campaign than even the GE.

I think here in South Cambridgeshire will be fairly heavily remain; I'd be amazed if Cambridge itself voted leave; the local paper has been heavily for remain, and the university makes a leave vote unlikely.

My on-the-day guess is that there wil be a very high turnout: >80% would not surprise me. I hope I'm right, as the more people who vote, and the bigger the margin, the better for the country. If it is closed than 5% either way then we are going to be in for some very interesting times. 10% or more would be better for the country.

(*) I wonder if a high PV turnout in this referendum will mean the traditional late flurry of leaflets will be lessened as combatants realise that they do not catch people who send their PVs in early.

Do hope your health is better now Mr J.

TOPPING · June 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.

Yep 18-24yr olds all sitting on the internet waiting for the latest opinion poll.

Jobabob · June 2016

RobD said:

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.
I for one look forward to be called PB Tory Scum on a regular basis.

PB Tory scum

Stark_Dawning · June 2016

If these polls are right then Dave will retire in eighteen months, enrolled for eternity in the pantheon of political gods. But they don't smell right to me. Nor to they concur with my psychic vision: long lens, grainy - Dave stalking up Downing Street for his emergency Cabinet meeting. Cut to Farage with a pint in hand grinning like a hippo: 'This is truly the most wonderful moment of my life...'

John_N4 · June 2016

The "reasons" why there "can't" be an exit poll are crap. You don't need to compare the data to previous votes. Just pick some wards across the country which taken together are roughly representative, sit there and ask people how they've voted. Of course that would be an exit poll.

kle4 · June 2016

kle4 said:

Wanderer said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

Bob__Sykes said:
I ended at the polling station this morning where I began in February - bitterly torn, heart saying one thing, the head saying another, and irritated and annoyed that we're having a vote at this time on this question, and feeling let down by the Prime Minister, who ultimately is responsible for this, his hopeless renegotiation and for the fallout that follows whatever the outcome.

I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.

I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
Hear hear.

NEVER AGAIN.
This is bollocks. All this bleating, mewling crap about the referendum being awful, divisive, nasty, blah blah. This is democracy, it is rough and ready. This vote is especially rough because we, as a nation, are deciding our future. But WE are deciding. The people. As it should be.

The alternative: of smooth, technocratic consensus, where even the most fundamental decisions are taken by an elite, is what they have in North Korea.
I think this question, and other big constitutional questions, need to be decided by referendum. I very much want us to remain a representative democracy though, not one where bullshit "propositions" are subject to plebiscites every ten minutes.
I would prefer more clarity on what questions need to be decided by referendum though.

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.

Truly healing the PB Tory divide will be more important than anything else, the country. Can wait

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

My first ever political bet.

Just put £20 on leave to win cash at 6-1.

That is bonkers odds.

David_Evershed · June 2016

JosiasJessop said:
I went out to vote at 07.30 to find the station far busier than I have ever seen it before - but like others below, it was not my usual time for voting. We have had many leaflets through the doors in the last few days, including a couple yesterday (*), and several neighbours have put posters for both campaigns in their windows. People I talk to seem much more involved and opinionated with this campaign than even the GE.

I think here in South Cambridgeshire will be fairly heavily remain; I'd be amazed if Cambridge itself voted leave; the local paper has been heavily for remain, and the university makes a leave vote unlikely.

My on-the-day guess is that there wil be a very high turnout: >80% would not surprise me. I hope I'm right, as the more people who vote, and the bigger the margin, the better for the country. If it is closed than 5% either way then we are going to be in for some very interesting times. 10% or more would be better for the country.

(*) I wonder if a high PV turnout in this referendum will mean the traditional late flurry of leaflets will be lessened as combatants realise that they do not catch people who send their PVs in early.

Cambridge students presumably now dispersed and holidaying?

RobD · June 2016

Jobabob said:

RobD said:

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.
I for one look forward to be called PB Tory Scum on a regular basis.
PB Tory scum

rottenborough · June 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire said:
My first ever political bet.

Just put £20 on leave to win cash at 6-1.

That is bonkers odds.

Hurrah! It's certainly value bet.

Concanvasser · June 2016

Feel very much the same as I did by this point at last years GE. I think Leave have just done enough to pull this one off, against all the odds.

My gut feeling is that Chesterton's "secret people" are going to make their presence felt today.

"Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget;
For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."

RobD · June 2016

TOPPING said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.
Yep 18-24yr olds all sitting on the internet waiting for the latest opinion poll.

I joined PB when I was 19. Talk about wasting my life

Jobabob · June 2016

kle4 said:

kle4 said:

Wanderer said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

Bob__Sykes said:
I ended at the polling station this morning where I began in February - bitterly torn, heart saying one thing, the head saying another, and irritated and annoyed that we're having a vote at this time on this question, and feeling let down by the Prime Minister, who ultimately is responsible for this, his hopeless renegotiation and for the fallout that follows whatever the outcome.

I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.

I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
Hear hear.

NEVER AGAIN.
This is bollocks. All this bleating, mewling crap about the referendum being awful, divisive, nasty, blah blah. This is democracy, it is rough and ready. This vote is especially rough because we, as a nation, are deciding our future. But WE are deciding. The people. As it should be.

The alternative: of smooth, technocratic consensus, where even the most fundamental decisions are taken by an elite, is what they have in North Korea.
I think this question, and other big constitutional questions, need to be decided by referendum. I very much want us to remain a representative democracy though, not one where bullshit "propositions" are subject to plebiscites every ten minutes.
I would prefer more clarity on what questions need to be decided by referendum though.

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.
Truly healing the PB Tory divide will be more important than anything else, the country. Can wait

Imagine a new world of

PB Eurotories and PB Lavatories

This referendum has flushed them out.

williamglenn · June 2016

I'm just looking forward to the scenes the next time Farage takes his seat in the European Parliament.

Anorak · June 2016

Jobabob said:

RobD said:

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.
I for one look forward to be called PB Tory Scum on a regular basis.
PB Tory scum

Careful you don't fall from the top branch of your Magic Money Tree, you marxist lunatic. Ahhhhhhhh, that's better.

JennyFreeman · June 2016

when I saw Mikes chart a 1992 shiver ran down my spine

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992

Jobabob · June 2016

Anorak said:

Jobabob said:

RobD said:

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.
I for one look forward to be called PB Tory Scum on a regular basis.
PB Tory scum
Careful you don't fall from the top branch of your Magic Money Tree, you marxist lunatic. Ahhhhhhhh, that's better.

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

Concanvasser said:
Feel very much the same as I did by this point at last years GE. I think Leave have just done enough to pull this one off, against all the odds.

My gut feeling is that Chesterton's "secret people" are going to make their presence felt today.

"Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget;
For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."

Ive just put £20 at 6-1 on that

rottenborough · June 2016

GIN1138 said:
Euro is back on the agenda from tomorrow.

Eh?

felix · June 2016

Jobabob said:
The best line of the campaign goes to Ruth Davidson.

Ruth: "Boris, name me one country, just one, that has said it will give us a better deal if we are out of the EU?"

Boris: "Er..."

Did he forget Albania .. or Russia

GIN1138 · June 2016

FTP

kjohnw said:

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:
@PopulusPolls: Populus Final Pre-Ref Poll (4700, Online) 55% REMAIN: 45% LEAVE. Fieldwork 21-06-16 to midnight 22-06-16. https://t.co/QuYl5dSwle
A landslide for REMAIN on the cards at this rate?

Campaign to get us into the Euro starts tomorrow...
Much as I mistrust the europhile traitors who govern us, there really WON'T be a campaign to join the euro tomorrow, and probably not in our lifetimes, either.

For a start such a thing means a Referendum. I think people using the R word in government in the next five-ten years will be sent to manage penguins in West Falklands.
They don't have to do it with a referendum... And I suspect when we eventually do join the Euro it will be via a general election manifesto commitment.
but we have the referendum lock enshrined in law

That "referendum lock" will be gone is 5...4...3...2...1...

John_N4 · June 2016

felix said:

Jobabob said:
The best line of the campaign goes to Ruth Davidson.

Ruth: "Boris, name me one country, just one, that has said it will give us a better deal if we are out of the EU?"

Boris: "Er..."

Did he forget Albania .. or Russia

"Give us a better deal" - lol. She's saying the EU is a good place to beg.

JennyFreeman · June 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Incredible how many are investing based on opinion poll results given the lack of a previous election to base it on and what happened last year - not to mention all the mid match methodology changes

and that its a two horse race with more than one poll putting leave ahead. Got to be worth a ten pound flutter whatever our views.

JosiasJessop · June 2016

David_Evershed said:

JosiasJessop said:
I went out to vote at 07.30 to find the station far busier than I have ever seen it before - but like others below, it was not my usual time for voting. We have had many leaflets through the doors in the last few days, including a couple yesterday (*), and several neighbours have put posters for both campaigns in their windows. People I talk to seem much more involved and opinionated with this campaign than even the GE.

I think here in South Cambridgeshire will be fairly heavily remain; I'd be amazed if Cambridge itself voted leave; the local paper has been heavily for remain, and the university makes a leave vote unlikely.

My on-the-day guess is that there wil be a very high turnout: >80% would not surprise me. I hope I'm right, as the more people who vote, and the bigger the margin, the better for the country. If it is closed than 5% either way then we are going to be in for some very interesting times. 10% or more would be better for the country.

(*) I wonder if a high PV turnout in this referendum will mean the traditional late flurry of leaflets will be lessened as combatants realise that they do not catch people who send their PVs in early.
Cambridge students presumably now dispersed and holidaying?

Yes, but there has been lots of media attention on how well the university does out of the EU. And whilst I sadly have not been able to spend time in t'pub to talk to locals, other conversations have indicated that the usual town vs gown split is curiously absent this time. Add in the tech firms that rely on foreign employees to fill vacancies, and you have fairly fertile ground for remain. P'haps.

But anecdata ...

Sean_F · June 2016

david_herdson said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Incredible how many are investing based on opinion poll results given the lack of a previous election to base it on and what happened last year - not to mention all the mid match methodology changes
It's not just that; it's how every Remain-positive poll shifts the market but a Leave-positive poll doesn't do the same the other way.

My average of this week's eve of poll numbers (I think BMG are far too dated to be included, but if they are included, one should also include their online numbers) gives Remain 51.8%, to Leave 48.2% (Populus 55/45, MORI 52/48, Com Res 54/46, Survation 51/49, ORB 54/46, Yougov 51/49, Opinium 49/51, TNS 49/51). We don't have any ICM numbers, unfortunately.

Each of Yougov, TNS, MORI, Com Res, ORB, have made adjustments that slightly favour Remain, compared to their preceding poll.

TOPPING · June 2016

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.
Yep 18-24yr olds all sitting on the internet waiting for the latest opinion poll.
I joined PB when I was 19. Talk about wasting my life

They had the internet then?

RobD · June 2016

Jobabob said:

kle4 said:

kle4 said:

Wanderer said:

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

Bob__Sykes said:
I ended at the polling station this morning where I began in February - bitterly torn, heart saying one thing, the head saying another, and irritated and annoyed that we're having a vote at this time on this question, and feeling let down by the Prime Minister, who ultimately is responsible for this, his hopeless renegotiation and for the fallout that follows whatever the outcome.

I voted Remain, I know many on here will be dismayed by that, in truth I am a little myself, but the "head" won out. Cool hard economic reasoning (and a degree of self-interest) over emotion. I did at least hover over the boxes rather than my usual confident crossing of a box without a moment's hesitation. I even felt a bit choked.

I just want this all to be over, and let's get on with our lives again...!
Hear hear.

NEVER AGAIN.
This is bollocks. All this bleating, mewling crap about the referendum being awful, divisive, nasty, blah blah. This is democracy, it is rough and ready. This vote is especially rough because we, as a nation, are deciding our future. But WE are deciding. The people. As it should be.

The alternative: of smooth, technocratic consensus, where even the most fundamental decisions are taken by an elite, is what they have in North Korea.
I think this question, and other big constitutional questions, need to be decided by referendum. I very much want us to remain a representative democracy though, not one where bullshit "propositions" are subject to plebiscites every ten minutes.
I would prefer more clarity on what questions need to be decided by referendum though.

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.
Truly healing the PB Tory divide will be more important than anything else, the country. Can wait
Imagine a new world of

PB Eurotories and PB Lavatories

This referendum has flushed them out.

Brilliant....:D

Sandpit · June 2016

I know betting with the heart is silly, but sod it - £100 more on Leave at 8.2.
EIGHT POINT TWO!!!

RobC · June 2016

Fortunately for Remain these polls have arrived too late for most voters to take any notice. Complacency was always a danger for the Remain camp. So too close to call as most polls were up to 24 hours ago was perfect for them as it seems to have ensured a high turnout..

JosiasJessop · June 2016

Jobabob said:

RobD said:

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.
I for one look forward to be called PB Tory Scum on a regular basis.
PB Tory scum

We're all PB Tories now, comrade.

felix · June 2016

david_herdson said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Incredible how many are investing based on opinion poll results given the lack of a previous election to base it on and what happened last year - not to mention all the mid match methodology changes
It's not just that; it's how every Remain-positive poll shifts the market but a Leave-positive poll doesn't do the same the other way.

That's incorrect - the £ rate has been affected almost instantly by every good Leave poll. I follow it closely as my pension gets changed into euros every month!

AndyJS · June 2016

Some people who haven't voted yet may be saying to themselves "I want Remain to win but not by 10%. Maybe I should vote tactically."

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

Sean_F said:

david_herdson said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Incredible how many are investing based on opinion poll results given the lack of a previous election to base it on and what happened last year - not to mention all the mid match methodology changes
It's not just that; it's how every Remain-positive poll shifts the market but a Leave-positive poll doesn't do the same the other way.
My average of this week's eve of poll numbers (I think BMG are far too dated to be included, but if they are included, one should also include their online numbers) gives Remain 51.8%, to Leave 48.2% (Populus 55/45, MORI 52/48, Com Res 54/46, Survation 51/49, ORB 54/46, Yougov 51/49, Opinium 49/51, TNS 49/51). We don't have any ICM numbers, unfortunately.

Each of Yougov, TNS, MORI, Com Res, ORB, have made adjustments that slightly favour Remain, compared to their preceding poll.

The last paragraph is very interesting.

What was that about no herding we heard earlier?

pbr2013 · June 2016

Anecdata. Chatting to the barman in a West End pub. Young, posh. Family from the sticks. Off to vote Leave on his lunch break. Says he doesn't believe a word either campaign say but has spent hours reading independently this week. Says he can't tell his flatmates because they would "have his head on a stick". Convinced me that there are shy leavers in London.

pinkrose · June 2016

Peter Kellner predicting Remain to win by 8.5%

DanSmith · June 2016

My sense is this could be a blowout but who knows.

SouthamObserver · June 2016

AndyJS said:
Some people who haven't voted yet may be saying to themselves "I want Remain to win but not by 10%. Maybe I should vote tactically."

Most people won't see the Populous poll. The Standard one is close enough to worry any Remainer.

JosiasJessop · June 2016

AndyJS said:

JosiasJessop said:
I went out to vote at 07.30 to find the station far busier than I have ever seen it before - but like others below, it was not my usual time for voting. We have had many leaflets through the doors in the last few days, including a couple yesterday (*), and several neighbours have put posters for both campaigns in their windows. People I talk to seem much more involved and opinionated with this campaign than even the GE.

I think here in South Cambridgeshire will be fairly heavily remain; I'd be amazed if Cambridge itself voted leave; the local paper has been heavily for remain, and the university makes a leave vote unlikely.

My on-the-day guess is that there wil be a very high turnout: >80% would not surprise me. I hope I'm right, as the more people who vote, and the bigger the margin, the better for the country. If it is closed than 5% either way then we are going to be in for some very interesting times. 10% or more would be better for the country.

(*) I wonder if a high PV turnout in this referendum will mean the traditional late flurry of leaflets will be lessened as combatants realise that they do not catch people who send their PVs in early.
My figures are Cambridge 70% Remain and South Cambs 56% Remain with England pegged at 50/50.

Thanks, I hadn't seen your figures. My finger-in-the-air guess is that Cambridge might be a little high, South Cambs a little low. But my guess is as bad or good as anyone else's ...

PlatoSaid · June 2016

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PlatoSaid said:
Oddly, these polls are cheering me up. If Leave was ahead, I'd be nervous as Hell.

Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
It wont help Remain persuade 18-24 year olds to get out of bed, thats for sure.
Yep 18-24yr olds all sitting on the internet waiting for the latest opinion poll.
I joined PB when I was 19. Talk about wasting my life

Stark_Dawning · June 2016

felix said:

Jobabob said:
The best line of the campaign goes to Ruth Davidson.

Ruth: "Boris, name me one country, just one, that has said it will give us a better deal if we are out of the EU?"

Boris: "Er..."

Did he forget Albania .. or Russia

In fairness Boris was being honest there - Albania said it would be a terrible idea.

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

pinkrose said:
Peter Kellner predicting Remain to win by 8.5%

EICIPM

Concanvasser · June 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire Lets hope you win Paul. We Bedfordshire types must stick together.

KentRising · June 2016

My forecast of 65/35 Remain may yet still happen?!

HurstLlama · June 2016

Concanvasser said:
Feel very much the same as I did by this point at last years GE. I think Leave have just done enough to pull this one off, against all the odds.

My gut feeling is that Chesterton's "secret people" are going to make their presence felt today.

"Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget;
For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."

Maybe, as I reported earlier I did see some C2DEs at the polling station earlier; people who I know don't usually vote (because "what's the f***ing point the Tories always get in round here"). I don't know which way they voted, but at least they were voting.

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

Concanvasser said:
Paul_Bedfordshire Lets hope you win Paul. We Bedfordshire types must stick together.

We, the People of Bedfordshire.... (well actually Aldgate right now)

weejonnie · June 2016

Sandpit said:
I know betting with the heart is silly, but sod it - £100 more on Leave at 8.2.
EIGHT POINT TWO!!!

What was NOM on this time in the 2015 election?

SouthamObserver · June 2016

If Leave do win from here then Osborne probably will have to close the markets tomorrow. It will be absolute carnage.

Sean_F · June 2016

SouthamObserver said:

AndyJS said:
Some people who haven't voted yet may be saying to themselves "I want Remain to win but not by 10%. Maybe I should vote tactically."

Most people won't see the Populous poll. The Standard one is close enough to worry any Remainer.

Using the same methodology as last week's poll, the MORI poll is even closer, 51/49%.

KentRising · June 2016

AndyJS said:
Some people who haven't voted yet may be saying to themselves "I want Remain to win but not by 10%. Maybe I should vote tactically."

About 20 people know or care about this poll, and they're all on here, and they've known how they're voting since this ref was called!

FrancisUrquhart · June 2016

All over bar the ~~shouting~~ voting.

Feels like last GE. Ed Miliband, hmm seems a bit risky option with his left wing sounding policies and Cameron is ok despite being a Tory, safety first.

Sean_F · June 2016

KentRising said:
My forecast of 65/35 Remain may yet still happen?!

That would be the polling disaster of all time, if true.

Wanderer · June 2016

JosiasJessop said:

Jobabob said:

RobD said:

Anorak said:
I assume that after today, PB's unpleasant IN/OUT name-calling and bitchiness will be replaced by the warm, soothing return of PB's unpleasant party-based name-calling and bitchiness.
I for one look forward to be called PB Tory Scum on a regular basis.
PB Tory scum
We're all PB Tories now, comrade.

Glad to see you online. Hope you are feeling a lot better.

RealBritain · June 2016

The 'expert' number-crunchers and researchers seem to be all over the place, even if the actual phone polls seem to be pointing to a remain victory.

Pulpstar · June 2016

Sean_F said:

KentRising said:
My forecast of 65/35 Remain may yet still happen?!
That would be the polling disaster of all time, if true.

Expensive for @rcs1000 too ^^;

TGOHF · June 2016

8.2 is just daft.

Silliest price outside a cricket ODI featuring India.

FrancisUrquhart · June 2016

Although I don't think polling should be released on the day of an election, the number of people interested or care are all media and people on here. Normal folk who take little interest in politics will be at work or watching Jeremy Kyle and at some point may or may not pop down the polling station and cast their vote knowing nothing of these polls.

IanB2 · June 2016

Scott_P said:
Seems like a good time to post this

@reactionlife: WHY BREXIT WILL WIN - according to top referendum number-cruncher - full analysis: https://t.co/BpSgYwoRZa - @reactionlife #EURef

A funny article. The conclusion at the end doesn't justify the title he has given it. Early indications are that he could be way out on turnout (although we won't really know until people start coming home from work). On likelihood to vote he edges it for remain given the social class divide, and on GOTV he edges it for the established parties over UKIP. So it's not obvious where his (non) conclusion comes from, other than his own preference and some rather shaky supposed foreign precedents....

Paul_Bedfordshire · June 2016

KentRising said:

AndyJS said:
Some people who haven't voted yet may be saying to themselves "I want Remain to win but not by 10%. Maybe I should vote tactically."
About 20 people know or care about this poll, and they're all on here, and they've known how they're voting since this ref was called!

Well the bookies certainly know about it.Lady said it was 3-1 last time she looked. Got 6-1

nunu · June 2016

OK just came back from a vote leave campaign centre and there was nothing to do because we have no to very little data! Remain are united so have masses of data whereas ukip ran their own campaign so weren't allowed to share their data with us. Its all over bar the crying.

Sandpit · June 2016

weejonnie said:

Sandpit said:
I know betting with the heart is silly, but sod it - £100 more on Leave at 8.2.
EIGHT POINT TWO!!!
What was NOM on this time in the 2015 election?

Between 1/8 and 1/10 during the day. hence the mad panic on here after Nuneaton!

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polling chart

Comments