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Mirror of indyref, the conspiracy theories will be off the chart
@reactionlife: WHY BREXIT WILL WIN - according to top referendum number-cruncher - full analysis: https://t.co/BpSgYwoRZa - @reactionlife #EURef
Now, I can just enjoy the next 18hrs.
Or is it.
GICIPM?
Ruth: "Boris, name me one country, just one, that has said it will give us a better deal if we are out of the EU?"
Boris: "Er..."
In other betfair news, the implied expected turnout from that market is 71-72%, which would be the biggest UK poll since at least the 1997 GE (which was 71.3%).
- Most people registering late were not new young electors but dupliclates of existing voters
- Young people turning up to vote less than they told the pollsters because on holiday or lazy
- Older people made more determined to vote by the bitter campaign
- Shy LEAVE voters too ashamed about Jo Cox to admit it to pollsters
- Rain causes luke warm REMAIN supporters not to bother to vote
- Postal votes were cast at the time LEAVE were well ahead
- UKIP repeat their GOTV operation when they won the European elections
RESULT. LEAVE win 55/45.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/23/business/international/brexit-britain-gambling-bookies.html?_r=0
Gobsmacked
Put your house on those lazy teenagers Paul
Theo Bertram
Does no one at Labour HQ check copy and image any more? Do they just not care? Or are they just ignored? https://t.co/boFgOhLeLk
I think here in South Cambridgeshire will be fairly heavily remain; I'd be amazed if Cambridge itself voted leave; the local paper has been heavily for remain, and the university makes a leave vote unlikely.
My on-the-day guess is that there wil be a very high turnout: >80% would not surprise me. I hope I'm right, as the more people who vote, and the bigger the margin, the better for the country. If it is closed than 5% either way then we are going to be in for some very interesting times. 10% or more would be better for the country.
(*) I wonder if a high PV turnout in this referendum will mean the traditional late flurry of leaflets will be lessened as combatants realise that they do not catch people who send their PVs in early.
Is this genuine, noticed on Peter Davison's twitter:
https://www.scribd.com/doc/169454715/Nigel-Farage-1981-school-letter#fullscreen
Just put £20 on leave to win cash at 6-1.
That is bonkers odds.
My gut feeling is that Chesterton's "secret people" are going to make their presence felt today.
"Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget;
For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."
PB Eurotories and PB Lavatories
This referendum has flushed them out.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
But anecdata ...
Each of Yougov, TNS, MORI, Com Res, ORB, have made adjustments that slightly favour Remain, compared to their preceding poll.
EIGHT POINT TWO!!!
What was that about no herding we heard earlier?
shoutingvoting.Feels like last GE. Ed Miliband, hmm seems a bit risky option with his left wing sounding policies and Cameron is ok despite being a Tory, safety first.
Silliest price outside a cricket ODI featuring India.