politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A special referendum election morning PB/Polling Matters po

ThreeQuidder said:

Pointless anecdote time: voting reported much busier than for the mayoral election. I can't directly compare, however, because I voted about two hours later than last month.

No teller outside today, which isn't a great surprise as TTBOMK neither side canvassed - but without tellers and canvassing how does GOTV work?

Greenwich borough.

You can do GOTV just by going and bothering all your supporters - telling simply reduces your workload (and the number of people you annoy) by eliminating those who have already voted. IME the Labour Party is starting to work this way, rather than provide tellers at all stations.

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Done my civic duty on behalf of the young 'uns. Polling here in a prosperous, rural, solid Tory area (which I think will split fairly evenly) was the busiest I've known.

No, you've done your "civic duty" for Cameron and Osborne.

Yes, and Boris and Gove. Wouldn't want to put them into the awkward position of actually having to deliver on their promises that the experts are all wrong. That wouldn't be fair.

ONS — UK population grew by half a million last year.

midwinter said:

5.8 now and drifting on betfair. Poll leak?

It'd have to be a leak to someone with a lot of money. I think there's been about £1m traded on the Betfair Brexit market this morning. That market has done this before for no good reason. I don't know but I'd be surprised if anyone outside a select number in Mori know their figures at the moment.

david_herdson said:

midwinter said:

5.8 now and drifting on betfair. Poll leak?

It'd have to be a leak to someone with a lot of money. I think there's been about £1m traded on the Betfair Brexit market this morning. That market has done this before for no good reason. I don't know but I'd be surprised if anyone outside a select number in Mori know their figures at the moment.

The city...filling their boots.

JessieShamus said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

If REMAIN win, will LEAVE accept the result?

It wont make them pro-EU if thats what you mean

Not all REMAINERS are pro-EU, either.

It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/

Roger said:

MarkSenior said:

Anecdote alert !!!!
Some of you may know that I play a lot of online Bridge ( on the BCL website ) . The referendum has been much discussed on their comments board . Although the demographics are of a majority of older members which should clearly favour Leave the consensus is running around 70/30 for Remain .

Perhaps being Bridge players they have an IQ of over 100 which favours Remain?

Clever

I feel nervous.

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

5.3 now.

Cameron might yet get chance to implement plan A - The most brutal cabinet reshuffle since Macmillan's night of the long knives.

Only if it's 70/30

Why not if it's 55:45?
Cameron will still have won, Gove and Boris will have lost. Cameron may want to reward loyalty before he exits the stage.

Innocent_Abroad said:

JessieShamus said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

If REMAIN win, will LEAVE accept the result?

It wont make them pro-EU if thats what you mean

Not all REMAINERS are pro-EU, either.

It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/

What, maybe 15% of the population is *actually* pro-EU. What do we think support for the Euro would be?!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Markets signalling it is all over. Stock and currencies all rising . How can they tell at tbis stage

Could be a trick and someone's about to make a vast fortune.

The International news channels are all commenting that the market is rising on the expectation of a remain win

well they have to say something, but the fact remains no-one really knows.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel nervous.

Betting markets are all moving in your direction. According to them, it's all over.

Re. MORI. As I always say in polling day, I think there should be a ban on opinion polls being released actually on the day of polling... Doesn't seem fair that something external like a MORI poll could influence the way people vote today.

LucyJones said:

@TOPPING
Didn't John Majopr think he had won some legally-binding opt-outs? Turned out, they weren't wortn the paper they were written on.

Full text of letter from John Major, Prime Minister, to His
Excellency Monsieur Jacques Santer, 12 November 1996:

“ARTICLE 118A of the TREATY ESTABLISHING THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY

snipped

What happened then?

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel nervous.

It's going to be fine, even if we do go out to plucky Iceland it will be good for our team's players to get a bit more rest ahead of next season

TOPPING said:

You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.

All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.

Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.

Nope. The ECJ refers to the treaties not the law for primacy for its decisions. It interprets the law based upon the treaties. This is why it can overturn non-treaty agreements if it decides they are in conflict with the treaties.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel nervous.

It's going to be fine, even if we do go out to plucky Iceland it will be good for our team's players to get a bit more rest ahead of next season

FYI - referendum today! Just incase you hadn't noticed, being non-obsessed about Europe and all that

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

Meanwhile: "In terms of data, the preliminary Eurozone composite PMI was down, as Manufacturing PMI was up and Services PMI down."

I imagine the UK PMI data will be weak too, quite a lot of people have been deferring decisions ahead of the referendum.

May was my worse month in the last 15 for sales volumes. Most of my customers and suppliers also said it was prettty grim.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

JessieShamus said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

If REMAIN win, will LEAVE accept the result?

It wont make them pro-EU if thats what you mean

Not all REMAINERS are pro-EU, either.

It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/

What, maybe 15% of the population is *actually* pro-EU. What do we think support for the Euro would be?!

Why would people vote Remain for any other reason than they are pro-EU? It may be marginal but surely they think on balance being in the EU is better than not being in it?

Wanderer said:

Voted at 9.10 in Wychavon.

Polling station was busy for the time of day. Met some elderly couples in small groups who seemed to be treating it as a social event. Clerk asked if I wanted to keep my polling card as a souvenir.

I don't think I ever received my polling card. Perhaps some kind soul has already voted on my behalf.

Alanbrooke said:

May was my worse month in the last 15 for sales volumes. Most of my customers and suppliers also said it was prettty grim.

And yet you voted to make it hugely worse. Curious.

This morning I was handed my second street leaflet of the campaign, also from Remain. From 'ConservativesIN'. Who the hell are they?

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.

All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.

Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.

Nope. The ECJ refers to the treaties not the law for primacy for its decisions. It interprets the law based upon the treaties. This is why it can overturn non-treaty agreements if it decides they are in conflict with the treaties.

That is correct. Until (or unless) the agreement is integrated into the Treaties, it is largely worthless.

I would hope that - assuming a Remain vote - that whoever is the next PM, demands it is incorporated as soon as possible. And if it is not incorporated, then I would argue that would be grounds for another referendum.*

* There is a problem with another referendum. If we had one in 2024 (say), then Remain will be able to say "Look! Last time the Leavers made up this whole story of Turkey joining. And guess what? It wasn't true. Don't fall for their lies again."

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Song, that's an optimistic suggestion

Always an optimist.
But really what is the alternative to accepting the decision of the British people? The majority of the electorate, even on the losing side, will expect it.

FF43 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

JessieShamus said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

If REMAIN win, will LEAVE accept the result?

It wont make them pro-EU if thats what you mean

Not all REMAINERS are pro-EU, either.

It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/

What, maybe 15% of the population is *actually* pro-EU. What do we think support for the Euro would be?!

Why would people vote Remain for any other reason than they are pro-EU? It may be marginal but surely they think on balance being in the EU is better than not being in it?

I don't think the second sentence is equivalent to someone necessarily being pro-EU.

logical_song said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

5.3 now.

Cameron might yet get chance to implement plan A - The most brutal cabinet reshuffle since Macmillan's night of the long knives.

Only if it's 70/30

Why not if it's 55:45?
Cameron will still have won, Gove and Boris will have lost. Cameron may want to reward loyalty before he exits the stage.

It only takes 50 Tory MPs to object to the Chairman of the 1922.

Stark_Dawning said:

This morning I was handed my second street leaflet of the campaign, also from Remain. From 'ConservativesIN'. Who the hell are they?

People like me, who have chosen to put country ahead of party.

Innocent_Abroad said:

JessieShamus said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

If REMAIN win, will LEAVE accept the result?

It wont make them pro-EU if thats what you mean

Not all REMAINERS are pro-EU, either.

It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/

No, I do not know fine well it wasn't

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

You have it the wrong way around. The laws are determined by the EU bodies and the ECJ interprets those laws. The EU has just made another law, in effect.

All the ECJ can do is to refer to the law, in this case the one created by the Heads of State or Government, and say - oh yes, that's all in order.

Edit: because I am totally an expert on European Law, its formulation, and its interpretation.

Nope. The ECJ refers to the treaties not the law for primacy for its decisions. It interprets the law based upon the treaties. This is why it can overturn non-treaty agreements if it decides they are in conflict with the treaties.

That is correct. Until (or unless) the agreement is integrated into the Treaties, it is largely worthless.

I would hope that - assuming a Remain vote - that whoever is the next PM, demands it is incorporated as soon as possible. And if it is not incorporated, then I would argue that would be grounds for another referendum.*

* There is a problem with another referendum. If we had one in 2024 (say), then Remain will be able to say "Look! Last time the Leavers made up this whole story of Turkey joining. And guess what? It wasn't true. Don't fall for their lies again."

Depends how many acquis chapters are opened/closed, I suppose

Leave now sub 1.2

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Markets signalling it is all over. Stock and currencies all rising . How can they tell at tbis stage

The market is rising because speculative short positions are being closed i.e. through buying. The market doesn't 'know' anything.

Jamie Vardy signs a four year contract extension with Leicester

Boom! 6.2

Alanbrooke said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

May was my worse month in the last 15 for sales volumes. Most of my customers and suppliers also said it was prettty grim.

And yet you voted to make it hugely worse. Curious.

No I voted to make my long term propsects much better.

The EU is a company destroying machine for UK manufacturing;

IT will follow.

So you don't believe Patrick Minford.

SPML said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I feel nervous.

And you were so confident. Do you now think leave are going to win?

I'm always nervous on election day

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

May was my worse month in the last 15 for sales volumes. Most of my customers and suppliers also said it was prettty grim.

And yet you voted to make it hugely worse. Curious.

No I voted to make my long term propsects much better.

The EU is a company destroying machine for UK manufacturing;

IT will follow.

So you don't believe Patrick Minford.

I happily make up my own mind based on the facts in front of me.

TOPPING said:

I don't know what the outcome was of John Major's infamous letter (sites only ever print the letter, not the follow up).

There wasn't an outcome. Voters unfortunately chucked him out and his successor opted-in to the Social Chapter anyway.

Mr. Eagles, on Survation's exit poll, that's interesting considering the chaps who normally do one for the General Election aren't on the basis it's impossible to get an accurate sample/picture.

FrankBooth said:

Are people pumping and dumping? Placing bets on Remain to boost the stock market? And then presumably dump the shares before the results come in.

Pumping the market to affect perception, exchange rates and share prices? Of course.

YellowSubmarine said:

The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.

Was a waste of time for the general election though...

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, IQ doesn't equal intelligence.

I was fooled by the 'I'

YellowSubmarine said:

The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.

But was a disaster for GE2015

Voted. Concerned about immediate economic difficulties which might affect me but nobly decided to vote "Leave" for the long term future of the young 'uns.

PlatoSaid said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The Guardian is reporting Sky will publish a YouGov at 10pm. Recontacting folk in it's final poll to ask how they actually voted. IIRC the approach worked OK in Indyref.

At least two PBers have been approached by YouGov for that.

I'm very suspicious of Yougovs, I've been in far too many relative to my 1/30,000,000th of the total vote or so I represent.

I didn't know YouGov had done it at the GE.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Note, Mike is using a pen.

twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/745899208583028738

His pen is slightly closer to the remain box

It's by no means in the bag. Vote for what you think is best!

We were running our very own Operation Croissant at breakfast this morning and enjoying a soft and delicious melon. I was having a Proustian Moment about the melons we used to have for starters at posh dinners: unripe, rock hard with a layer of powdered ginger on top. As your spoon hit the hard but slippery surface it would send up a cloud of ginger. You would then sneeze all over it. So I thought, Remain for Better Melons!

Innocent_Abroad said:

Starfall said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

JessieShamus said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

If REMAIN win, will LEAVE accept the result?

It wont make them pro-EU if thats what you mean

Not all REMAINERS are pro-EU, either.

It wasn't what I meant and you know fine well it wasn't/

It depends what you mean by "accept the result" I suppose. If Leave win I accept we will leave the EU in the next few years, but I will still argue for rejoining as soon as possible. I imagine Leavers will do the same in reverse.

In other words, neither side will accept the result. I agree.

I worry about the number of people who seem to have lost faith in the legitimacy of the entire process. It's easy to mock the "vote in pen" crowd, but they seem to be getting more numerous. It makes me sad that we've got to the stage where a significant minority of people actually believe that our electoral process will be rigged by the government. I don't think they'll accept the result if it doesn't go their way.