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The way the polls have gone in this campaign IPSOS-MORI surely has to bring good news to Leave.0
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Sorry to hear that. Hope things improve asap.Polruan said:Morning all. I think my self-imposed extended referendum purdah is offically ovah.
So, if I understand correctly, we're being asked to believe one side who tell us it's better to be inside the tent being pissed on, but standing near the exit so at least the pissers recognise that we aren't really enjoying it; or the other side who tell us it's better to be outside the tent pissing on ourselves because sovereignty. It's a tough one.
In any case, I'm undergoing a rather more personalised Leave outcome today and becoming unemployed, which may have taken my focus off the referendum. I'm looking forward to taking back control, but hoping that someone else will wish to trade with me in due course, ideally on the same favourable terms as if I had remained.
Happy voting, everyone....0 -
Lincolnshire and Essex are Leave territory though I think Sky said most of it should have cleared by late afternoonpeter_from_putney said:Metcheck Weather Warning - UPDATE
In summary, there's a great deal more rain to come today in SE England and East Anglia
Issue Time
Thu 23 Jun 2016: 08:00 BST New/Updated
Valid From
Thu 23 Jun 2016 : 14:00 BST(In 6hrs)
Valid Until
Fri 24 Jun 2016 : 00:00 BST (16hrs remaining)
Weather Watch for Thunderstorms / Heavy Rain / Hail / Severe Wind Gusts / Tornadoes
Last night we saw the first plume of moist air affect parts of the Southeast and Eastern England. Later on Thursday we have "Round 2" as the plume once again engages with the moist air and further intense thunderstorms will develop.
The crucial element today is daytime heating as the trigger is likely to come in the form of sea breezes across Northern France and Southern England.
That said, areas most at risk of thunderstorms today will be across Southern and Southeast England then later into parts of Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Essex and Suffolk.
These storms will have a slightly different flavour than the ones yesterday. A larger risk of 2-3cm hailstones are possible which could cause damage to crops, especially across Lincolnshire and Norfolk later. Also, the risk of intense heavy rain with flash flooding possible across Southeast England and later parts of Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Essex and Suffolk where 25-75mm (1-3") of rain is possible in a short period.
Storms will have the risk of strong, gusty winds around the edges where 50-60mph possible. This is important to note if you are having any outdoor activities today and if you see an approaching storm then take action.
Upper air charts show a moderate risk of bowing storms across Southern and Southeast England this afternoon. If storms to develop along Southern England later and head Northeast then there is a moderate to high risk of them merging with the risk of tornadoes and funnel clouds.0 -
Besides, only three people will ever read it, two of whom are campaign zealots, and your only chance of fame is of one of them is a PBer and posts the product of your superb wit up here. And you could easily do that yourself...OllyT said:
Risky, depending on what you put a zealous scrutiniser for the opposition could get it ruled out, particularly if you have an inexperienced/ineffectual official in charge. I'd leave it personallyFreggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
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Mr. F, I'd be stunned if that were the result.
If Leave win, I'd guess 5 points would be around the maximum margin. Remain could win by a lot, although my 60/40 long-term prediction is looking a bit off-kilter.0 -
I think he said Cameron would not deliver it fairly, and indeed he didn't.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think there can be a referendum happening today. Nigel Farage, the most trusted politician in the UK, assured us that Cameron would not deliver it.
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Going out shortly to do my bit for the rest of the day - Islington North Labour has a GOTV HQ in each of the 10 wards and we are aiming for 80% turnout of believed Remain supporters. Sky is cloudy bright, not raining at present.0
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Yes.Wanderer said:
What's the position if a postal voter dies before the count. Is their vote still valid?Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
On that sweater.matt said:
If you look at their approach to the single market and competition policy, pretty well. If you're of a don't subsidise failing industries mind-set. The steel making stuff and some "Thatcherites" reactions were pretty illuminating.CornishBlue said:
That was 1975... how's our "influence in Europe" coming along?Scott_P said:
They had a modern version on the DP the other day, but with no red diagonals in the Union Flag.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07hpc5r/daily-politics-22062016 @ 58:15 or so.0 -
Thank you for your kind wishes. It's an option I hadn't considered, but I can see the upsides (provided one checks the currency in which the millionairess status is denominated first).Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Polruan, my sympathies. Hope you can get back into work soon.
Or find yourself seduced by a nymphomaniac millionairess.0 -
Leeds will be one to watch. The City Council area is very big as it took in so many surrounding UDC in 1974. It also has large chunks for archetypal WWC areas and three Universities. Personally I'd have thought Remain would be in trouble nationally if Leeds was Leave overall.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting little observation on Sky News the other day. The third largest counting area is Leeds (just over half a million votes, behind Birmingham and Northern Ireland). it was pale blue, signifying it's expected to be slightly Leave.
Whilst I thought outlying areas might be, the city itself being for Leave did surprise me a bit.
Birmingham was also pale blue.0 -
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Weather:
But Swedish academics in a more recent study said they could not “find a robust and statistically significant negative effect of Election Day rain on turnout” in their country.
....“Furthermore, the Swedish electoral system is proportional, which means that most votes ”count”. If you don’t live in a swing state in the US, your vote (at least in the Presidential election) is less likely to change the outcome,” he added
I'd take note of the second paragraph and compare to the usual GE here.
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Good luck Mr Polruan.Polruan said:Morning all. I think my self-imposed extended referendum purdah is offically ovah.
So, if I understand correctly, we're being asked to believe one side who tell us it's better to be inside the tent being pissed on, but standing near the exit so at least the pissers recognise that we aren't really enjoying it; or the other side who tell us it's better to be outside the tent pissing on ourselves because sovereignty. It's a tough one.
In any case, I'm undergoing a rather more personalised Leave outcome today and becoming unemployed, which may have taken my focus off the referendum. I'm looking forward to taking back control, but hoping that someone else will wish to trade with me in due course, ideally on the same favourable terms as if I had remained.
Happy voting, everyone....0 -
Crappy news, but it's very hard to believe you'll be unemployed for long.Polruan said:Morning all. I think my self-imposed extended referendum purdah is offically ovah.
So, if I understand correctly, we're being asked to believe one side who tell us it's better to be inside the tent being pissed on, but standing near the exit so at least the pissers recognise that we aren't really enjoying it; or the other side who tell us it's better to be outside the tent pissing on ourselves because sovereignty. It's a tough one.
In any case, I'm undergoing a rather more personalised Leave outcome today and becoming unemployed, which may have taken my focus off the referendum. I'm looking forward to taking back control, but hoping that someone else will wish to trade with me in due course, ideally on the same favourable terms as if I had remained.
Happy voting, everyone....
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Mr. Submarine, presumably Leeds will take ages to count though, given it's the third largest area?
Edited extra bit: as a frivolous aside, in Dragon Age: Inquisition there's an Orlesian (fantasy not-France) noblewoman who's Grand Duchess of Lydes [pronounced 'Leeds']. It always feels a bit odd hearing that.0 -
But Manchester was not in the dataset.matt said:Weather:
But Swedish academics in a more recent study said they could not “find a robust and statistically significant negative effect of Election Day rain on turnout” in their country.
....“Furthermore, the Swedish electoral system is proportional, which means that most votes ”count”. If you don’t live in a swing state in the US, your vote (at least in the Presidential election) is less likely to change the outcome,” he added
I'd take note of the second paragraph and compare to the usual GE here.0 -
On the contrary, my prediction formula has Reading as the 6th most Remain area in England outside London after Cambridge, Oxford, Manchester, Slough, Leicester.Paristonda said:Voting by proxy today - it feels somewhat anticlimatic for such a big occasion!
To add to the anecdata: been speaking with a friend involved with the Labour In movement in Reading. Canvass returns for Reading show all but the 2 poorest wards voting for remain, with the rich tory voting wards splitting 80-20 for remain. these being the highest turnout wards as well.
Obviously Reading is not like all other areas, but to my knowledge it's not expected to be one of the most Remain areas or the country?
The 80-20 split seems like a lot, but I do think the thought of the working class voting out will have scared the middle class into voting remain. Whether that will be enough I'm not sure.
I'll stick with my prediction for 52-48 for Remain, based on high middle class tory turnout for remain and swingback to status quo option in the booth
I have it voting 61% Remain if England is 50/50.0 -
The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.0 -
FWIW, polling day reports should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Last year we heard of record turnout in places like Battersea, by excited Labour supporters who'd totally swamped the whole constituency, and Jane Ellison won by an even bigger margin than last time.0 -
Right, do I close out my turnout bet?0
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Unfortunately the last 3 months have seen a complete referendum-induced stasis in my market. A lot of colleagues have said that firms haven't even been commissioning small pieces of tax advice, let alone starting new initiatives or restructuring businesses. I'm hoping that will change from tomorrow though the biggest worry is that the slowdown only ends in September.SouthamObserver said:
Crappy news, but it's very hard to believe you'll be unemployed for long.Polruan said:Morning all. I think my self-imposed extended referendum purdah is offically ovah.
So, if I understand correctly, we're being asked to believe one side who tell us it's better to be inside the tent being pissed on, but standing near the exit so at least the pissers recognise that we aren't really enjoying it; or the other side who tell us it's better to be outside the tent pissing on ourselves because sovereignty. It's a tough one.
In any case, I'm undergoing a rather more personalised Leave outcome today and becoming unemployed, which may have taken my focus off the referendum. I'm looking forward to taking back control, but hoping that someone else will wish to trade with me in due course, ideally on the same favourable terms as if I had remained.
Happy voting, everyone....
Still, 2-3 months off in west Cornwall isn't the biggest hardship at this time of year.0 -
I can report queues around the block to vote in Cobham at 7:00 this morning.0
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I think you are missing a significant block in the middle. People who don't think the EU is wonderful but think it is ok, with positives and negatives, and therefore don't want to leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.0 -
Or are they just queueing now the rain has stopped? Doesn't gel with the predictions of/talk of GE-level turnout.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/745889915112656896
OT - how was Independence Day 2?0 -
I'd be surprised if the turnout is less than 64%. Unlike the GE all our votes count0
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The only West Yorkshire authority I expect to be Leave is Wakefield. Leeds has its fair share of yummy mummies, hipsters and young graduates to counter balance the rough as feck estates and outlying Tory areas. At least I'll be placing one vote in the Leeds Leave bundle.YellowSubmarine said:
Leeds will be one to watch. The City Council area is very big as it took in so many surrounding UDC in 1974. It also has large chunks for archetypal WWC areas and three Universities. Personally I'd have thought Remain would be in trouble nationally if Leeds was Leave overall.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting little observation on Sky News the other day. The third largest counting area is Leeds (just over half a million votes, behind Birmingham and Northern Ireland). it was pale blue, signifying it's expected to be slightly Leave.
Whilst I thought outlying areas might be, the city itself being for Leave did surprise me a bit.
Birmingham was also pale blue.0 -
No hesitation.
In the future we'll celebrate on Independence Day.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mlnXQzr_nYk0 -
Mr. London, there are also people (in my view deluded) who think we can reform it from the inside. They'll vote Remain, then feel annoyed when reality doesn't match their hopes.
Whichever side wins, this is the end of the first act, not the play.0 -
Que Sera, SeraSlackbladder said:Well, i've voted, but I've been trying to detach myself from emotion from the result. If we're remaining in, we're remaining in. If we're leaving, we're leaving
What will be will be.
http://tinyurl.com/c7ltq6u0 -
Random question: If a company announced that all workers would get the day off to vote AND also expressed a preference in the referendum (not necessarily at the same time) would that be illegal i.e. treating or something?0
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If it pays out between 60 and 70%TheScreamingEagles said:Right, do I close out my turnout bet?
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IIRC Leeds was Ledes in the Domesday Book and Leodis in the Anglo Saxon Chronicles ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Submarine, presumably Leeds will take ages to count though, given it's the third largest area?
Edited extra bit: as a frivolous aside, in Dragon Age: Inquisition there's an Orlesian (fantasy not-France) noblewoman who's Grand Duchess of Lydes [pronounced 'Leeds']. It always feels a bit odd hearing that.0 -
It was fun. Lacked Will Smith.RobD said:
Or are they just queueing now the rain has stopped? Doesn't gel with the predictions of GE-level turnout.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/745889915112656896
OT - how was Independence Day 2?
There was even referendum talk in the cinema.
'I don't know Leave keep on banging on about Independence Day, most of the world was destroyed and we formed a multi national alliance to win'0 -
The new Gold Standard.Sean_F said:FWIW, Qrious have 51/37 Leave. I'm slightly sceptical.
Just a bit of wishcasting there on my part.0 -
Sounds a lot like NATO... *innocent face*TheScreamingEagles said:
It was fun. Lacked Will Smith.RobD said:
Or are they just queueing now the rain has stopped? Doesn't gel with the predictions of GE-level turnout.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/745889915112656896
OT - how was Independence Day 2?
There was even referendum talk in the cinema.
'I don't know Leave keep on banging on about Independence Day, most of the world was destroyed and we formed a multi national alliance to win'0 -
Take a couple of months off and get rested, I'm sure no matter what the result today, there will be opportunities for you on the horizon.Polruan said:
Unfortunately the last 3 months have seen a complete referendum-induced stasis in my market. A lot of colleagues have said that firms haven't even been commissioning small pieces of tax advice, let alone starting new initiatives or restructuring businesses. I'm hoping that will change from tomorrow though the biggest worry is that the slowdown only ends in September.SouthamObserver said:
Crappy news, but it's very hard to believe you'll be unemployed for long.Polruan said:Morning all. I think my self-imposed extended referendum purdah is offically ovah.
So, if I understand correctly, we're being asked to believe one side who tell us it's better to be inside the tent being pissed on, but standing near the exit so at least the pissers recognise that we aren't really enjoying it; or the other side who tell us it's better to be outside the tent pissing on ourselves because sovereignty. It's a tough one.
In any case, I'm undergoing a rather more personalised Leave outcome today and becoming unemployed, which may have taken my focus off the referendum. I'm looking forward to taking back control, but hoping that someone else will wish to trade with me in due course, ideally on the same favourable terms as if I had remained.
Happy voting, everyone....
Still, 2-3 months off in west Cornwall isn't the biggest hardship at this time of year.0 -
Any news on MORI?0
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Should have used a pen to be on the safe sideLuckyguy1983 said:Voted! Made the bloody pencil mark so hard it practically went through the paper!
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People voting early, forgetting that they can't vote often?TheScreamingEagles said:
I have not a clue now - its a coin toss. Going to be lots of upset people tomorrow either way.0 -
Wise. I have a Zimbabwean 100 trillion dollar note somewhere. But being a multi-trillionaire isn't all it is made out to be....Polruan said:
Thank you for your kind wishes. It's an option I hadn't considered, but I can see the upsides (provided one checks the currency in which the millionairess status is denominated first).Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Polruan, my sympathies. Hope you can get back into work soon.
Or find yourself seduced by a nymphomaniac millionairess.
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Mr. Submarine, not sure about the etymology, but the Anglo Saxon Chronicles are referred to in the biography of Alfred I'm currently reading, so I may give it a look at some point.
I do remember being surprised to learn, in the past, Leeds was around for the Domesday Book.
Mr. Rentool, I agree with some of that, but there's also a UKIP presence in some areas (one in my constituency) and old Labour sorts who are likelier to vote Leave than Remain. Hard to try and judge the whole area, though, because of its size.0 -
Weather forecast appeared to suggest it was peeing down in the SE (it is...I mean all day!)
Turnout down in rural areas where polling stations are far away - or down in Remain friendly London,...?
We just don't know...
I was in Germany yesterday for a meeting and they urged us to vote Remain! The irony that the bloody Germans were telling us what to do without thinking that maybe we don't like that - that's the WHOLE POINT mate :-)
Anyway feels like 52:48 Remain after all that0 -
If we vote to leave I am sure there will be a fairly big chunk of leavers that feel annoyed when reality doesn't match their hopes. Especially Express/Mail readers where everything bad seems to be about the EU!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. London, there are also people (in my view deluded) who think we can reform it from the inside. They'll vote Remain, then feel annoyed when reality doesn't match their hopes.
Whichever side wins, this is the end of the first act, not the play.0 -
That agrees with my figures, although Calderdale could be very close.SandyRentool said:
The only West Yorkshire authority I expect to be Leave is Wakefield. Leeds has its fair share of yummy mummies, hipsters and young graduates to counter balance the rough as feck estates and outlying Tory areas. At least I'll be placing one vote in the Leeds Leave bundle.YellowSubmarine said:
Leeds will be one to watch. The City Council area is very big as it took in so many surrounding UDC in 1974. It also has large chunks for archetypal WWC areas and three Universities. Personally I'd have thought Remain would be in trouble nationally if Leeds was Leave overall.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting little observation on Sky News the other day. The third largest counting area is Leeds (just over half a million votes, behind Birmingham and Northern Ireland). it was pale blue, signifying it's expected to be slightly Leave.
Whilst I thought outlying areas might be, the city itself being for Leave did surprise me a bit.
Birmingham was also pale blue.0 -
Doesn't make for as bumptious an internet chat blog, though.London said:
I think you are missing a significant block in the middle. People who don't think the EU is wonderful but think it is ok, with positives and negatives, and therefore don't want to leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.0 -
That's Wandsworth, on the border of Lambeth, both of which are very high in the list of remain target areas. The single mums, the unemployed and the pensioners will be down a bit later, hopefully.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Before lunchtime. The fieldwork finished at 9pm last night.RobD said:Any news on MORI?
I did ask for an embargoed copy. I received a curt two word reply, ending in off0 -
As long as they're not ordering them to vote a certain way, asking for photos of ballots etc, no.London said:Random question: If a company announced that all workers would get the day off to vote AND also expressed a preference in the referendum (not necessarily at the same time) would that be illegal i.e. treating or something?
Elsewhere in the world, Election Day is often a public holiday, to allow for maximum turnout.0 -
Soon apparentlyRobD said:Any news on MORI?
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/7458882725560975370 -
Oooh - is the US joining the EU then?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was fun. Lacked Will Smith.RobD said:
Or are they just queueing now the rain has stopped? Doesn't gel with the predictions of GE-level turnout.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/745889915112656896
OT - how was Independence Day 2?
There was even referendum talk in the cinema.
'I don't know Leave keep on banging on about Independence Day, most of the world was destroyed and we formed a multi national alliance to win'0 -
Lol. You live in Sheffield, u always have to vote tactically, ur the only Tory in the village.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike: This binary choice really screws people like me who like to vote tactically
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Anecdotal: Long queues at Wiston, Rotherham0
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Repost from downthread - IMO, this is one of the best referendum bets out there.
Yes, Sunderland are very quick at counting, but there's very very little risk of them declaring their result before half eleven - and we cold be waiting until 1 or 2 am.
For reference, back in 2011 the AV referendum had a ~38% turnout. They started with pre-verified votes, ready to go at 4pm the day after the vote. The count took just over an hour.
This time, there will be many more votes to count (65% turnout?), we can reasonably expect more arguments over contested ballots - and the counting process can't even begin until every box is verified.
I have no idea about Sunderland's staffing arrangements (I'm guessing neither do SPIN!) but it seems to me there is a lot of room for delays - and little risk of premature declaration.
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http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.d11f170c-3d7a-4e0f-a3fc-89aed4ee47c4/eu-referendum-specials
'Ha'way The Counters'
Buy @ 100 (ie, Sunderland to declare after 11.40pm)
I'm on for £10 per minute.
Gulp
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Right I'd better go and vote I suppose. I'll post my entirely meaningless anecdote about the polling station shortly. My polling Station has a really foxy picture of Her Majesty in hunting red on Horseback in it. Coronation era I imagine. I've always wonder what subliminal effect being watched by the Queen has on voters ?0
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Mr. London, ha, that's very true. Whoever wins today may find it Pyrrhic.0
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I voted, pollinh place was dead apart from me but staff said people had been coming in chunks and as I left 2 people entered clutching polling cards and I passed a few more on the way home.
Forgot to ask for a comparison to previous elections.0 -
They eventually will, The EU is that awesome.MarqueeMark said:
Oooh - is the US joining the EU then?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was fun. Lacked Will Smith.RobD said:
Or are they just queueing now the rain has stopped? Doesn't gel with the predictions of GE-level turnout.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/745889915112656896
OT - how was Independence Day 2?
There was even referendum talk in the cinema.
'I don't know Leave keep on banging on about Independence Day, most of the world was destroyed and we formed a multi national alliance to win'
It'll be like Eurovision, even the bloody Aussies will want to join.0 -
I was only 7 in 1975, but I remember my parents arguing about the referendum. My dad voted to leave, my mum to stay. As it happens, they divorced 4 years later.kle4 said:Hope happy couples are t split by the vote, apparently my parents voted different ways in 75, and just 13 years and 4 kids later they spli.
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I wonder whether Shadsy had his blackboard and easel with him to tempt the those queing to part with a few quid?Mortimer said:
People voting early, forgetting that they can't vote often?TheScreamingEagles said:
I have not a clue now - its a coin toss. Going to be lots of upset people tomorrow either way.0 -
Interesting, but:Pong said:repost from downthread - This is one of the best referendum bets out there. Yes, Sunderland are very quick at counting, but there's very very little risk of them declaring their result before half eleven - and a chance the result could take three or four hours to declare.
For reference, back in 2011 the AV referendum had a ~38% turnout. They started with pre-verified votes, ready to go at 4pm the day after the vote. The count took just over an hour.
This time, there will be many more votes to count (65% turnout?), we can reasonably expect more arguments over contested ballots - and the counting process can't even begin until every box is verified.
I have no idea about Sunderland's staffing arrangements (I'm guessing neither do SPIN!) but it seems to me there is a lot of room for delays - and little risk of premature declaration.
---
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.d11f170c-3d7a-4e0f-a3fc-89aed4ee47c4/eu-referendum-specials
'Ha'way The Counters'
Buy @ 100 (ie, Sunderland to declare after 11.40pm)
This seems to me to be a very decent bet when you consider the counting area/referendum logistics are very different to a GE count.
I'm on for £10 per minute.
Gulp
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- why would a yes/no election produce more disputed ballot papers than the normal list of party candidates?
- counting never begins until all the votes are verified
- turnout in the referendum is likely to be at GE levels
- in a GE Sunderland declares before midnight
The only factor that potentially extends the count is that the Sunderland council area is bigger than a single constituency. But doesn't Sunderland normally get both its constituencies done super quick?0 -
the scraping noise are the goal posts being moved... that certainly wasn't the postings we had on PB! Cast Iron Dave would never deliver a referendum repeat x100Indigo said:
I think he said Cameron would not deliver it fairly, and indeed he didn't.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think there can be a referendum happening today. Nigel Farage, the most trusted politician in the UK, assured us that Cameron would not deliver it.
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Good luck Polruan, and happy birthday PfP!0
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Anecdotal (Another) My colleague's 18 year old daughter didn't even realise there was a referendum on apparently !0
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A pleasant morning in Sale this morning. Three other voters at the polling station at 8am, which could probably be considered ‘brisk’. An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain. A difficult choice – do we risk consigning ourselves to trade isolation on the northwestern fringes of a hostile and moribund economic bloc or risk getting swallowed up by an undemocratic and indifferent superstate? But, as it turns out, not as difficult a decision of deciding which of four or more strangers standing under vague policy platforms which they may or may not agree with most agrees with me across a wide range of subjects. Turns out my party allegiance is really pretty weak in comparison. Hooray for referenda!
I fully expect Leave to lose, but at least we’ve been asked, which is more than has happened previously in my lifetime. I have a spring in my step.
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Shouldn't you be in pretty much the most remain part of the UK (Edinburgh) ?Alistair said:I voted, pollinh place was dead apart from me but staff said people had been coming in chunks and as I left 2 people entered clutching polling cards and I passed a few more on the way home.
Forgot to ask for a comparison to previous elections.0 -
I'm taking a permanent marker.old_labour said:
Should have used a pen to be on the safe sideLuckyguy1983 said:Voted! Made the bloody pencil mark so hard it practically went through the paper!
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I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.0 -
Very sorry to hear that. Best of luck (last time it happened to me it took 5 years to get back to a job I liked but am sure you will do better than that!)Polruan said:Morning all. I think my self-imposed extended referendum purdah is offically ovah.
So, if I understand correctly, we're being asked to believe one side who tell us it's better to be inside the tent being pissed on, but standing near the exit so at least the pissers recognise that we aren't really enjoying it; or the other side who tell us it's better to be outside the tent pissing on ourselves because sovereignty. It's a tough one.
In any case, I'm undergoing a rather more personalised Leave outcome today and becoming unemployed, which may have taken my focus off the referendum. I'm looking forward to taking back control, but hoping that someone else will wish to trade with me in due course, ideally on the same favourable terms as if I had remained.
Happy voting, everyone....0 -
I wonder if Dave will extend the voting period to Friday in flood-hit areas.SouthamObserver said:Remain country?
https://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/7458683079039754280 -
Alan Sked is Kryptonite to Farage's superman...TheScreamingEagles said:So Farage chickened out of the channel 4 debate to have dinner with his son.
Frit! Or does he know Leave are going to get the dockside hooker treatment
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That depends on whether they've completed it before they died!Wanderer said:
What's the position if a postal voter dies before the count. Is their vote still valid?Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
I just closed my Spreadex turnout bet at 70% to show a tidy profit since i opened it at last month.TheScreamingEagles said:Right, do I close out my turnout bet?
If turnout were to exceed 70%, then I shall be dusting down those LEAVE betting slips!0 -
Wow. How does she get her news such that she's completely missed the fact of the referendum? I can understand not knowing it was today, but not knowing it was on at all?Pulpstar said:Anecdotal (Another) My colleague's 18 year old daughter didn't even realise there was a referendum on apparently !
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I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...OllyT said:
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.0 -
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I'm not so sure about that. I voted Leave this morning primarily on the issue of sovereignty and an unshakeable view that we should be able to kick out directly those who govern our lives. The immigration noise doesn't excite me much. If we stayed in the single market and kept free movement I'd be fine with it.OllyT said:
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.0 -
Now we'll see who's more British.old_labour said:
I wonder if Dave will extend the voting period to Friday in flood-hit areas.SouthamObserver said:Remain country?
https://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/745868307903975428
Those who struggle through adversity and hazard to vote for the sake of their nation (ie Remain). Or those who shelter at home watching Jeremy Kyle hoping for "something to turn up" (ie Leave).0 -
@benatipsosmori: Just heard @standardnews will publish from final preelection poll from us at 11am uk time0
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Yes. Flood hit remain areas. Yes.old_labour said:
I wonder if Dave will extend the voting period to Friday in flood-hit areas.SouthamObserver said:Remain country?
https://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/7458683079039754280 -
Did we not have the same "omg look at the queues" stuff for the GE last year?0
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I'm sure.MarqueeMark said:
I'm also expecting buyer's remorse to be swift and harsh if we vote to Remain! The EU has been walking on egg-shells, saying nothing that could rock the boat for a couple of months. There's going to be pent-up stuff coming out that will get more than a few people spitting nails...OllyT said:
I would estimate about 20-25% positively want to stay, particularly at the younger end of the spectrum. I would also say that most people don't have a scooby doo about the EU. The ignorance and misinformation is appalling when you hear Joe Public being interviewed. It has become the convenient scapegoat to blame for all their problems. That's why Leave is doing so well, they can project everyone's concerns on the EU and promise them everything will be better if we just leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
Of course if we do leave within a year everyone will be blaming all their woes on Brexit.
I am sanguine about the result, fortunate enough not to be affected either way but I am expecting the buyer's remorse to swift and harsh if we leave, particularly once we opt for a solution that maintains freedom of movement as I am certain we will.
And then, Dave produces his piece of paper saying: No Ever Closer Union.
And PUUFFFFFFFFFT! All that pent-up stuff will be repelled.0 -
Ben Page
Just heard @standardnews will publish from final preelection poll from us at 11am uk time0 -
Has anybody got the link to the dpreadsheet that was posted here awhile back showing the projected paritys for individual boroughs0
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Are people still salty about extending the registration deadline, which was undoubtedly the right thing to do?nunu said:
Yes. Flood hit remain areas. Yes.old_labour said:
I wonder if Dave will extend the voting period to Friday in flood-hit areas.SouthamObserver said:Remain country?
https://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/7458683079039754280 -
Absolutely - step outside the rarified atmosphere of the political wonks on this forum, and there is a whole world of people out there who just want a quiet life, who have friends (and increasingly family) from or in other parts of Europe, who are horrified by the rhetoric and just want 'everyone to get along and play nicely' (which pretty much sums up the whole EU project and its primary success over the past 60 years).London said:
I think you are missing a significant block in the middle. People who don't think the EU is wonderful but think it is ok, with positives and negatives, and therefore don't want to leave.MarqueeMark said:The big fight today is between those who want to leave the EU - and those who want to leave the EU but are too scared of the consequences.
The number of people who want to stay in the EU because it is wonderful are tiny.
And you know what? I'm with them. Let's hope the end of today doesn't end up as Banana Republic Britain at the mercy of US conglomerates, Chinese property cash, Russian billionaires, upper-class tax exiles and Rupert effing Murdoch. Independence Day? Don't make me laugh. Traitors and quislings? Pots and kettles more like.0 -
My brother is working at a polling station in Boston. He will be able to give me an indication of turnout when he finishes. Not going to be informative unless it's very low.0
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That's happening whether we are in or out of the EU.bookseller said:
And you know what? I'm with them. Let's hope the end of today doesn't end up as Banana Republic Britain at the mercy of US conglomerates, Chinese property cash, Russian billionaires, upper-class tax exiles and Rupert effing Murdoch. Independence Day? Don't make me laugh. Traitors and quislings? Pots and kettles more like.0 -
Yes I voted with so little hesitation today that I actually had to check I'd put a cross in the correct box.Cookie said:An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain.
Does anyone know what you do if that happens?
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I can believe that.Pulpstar said:Anecdotal (Another) My colleague's 18 year old daughter didn't even realise there was a referendum on apparently !
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A lot but mainly in one place!kle4 said:
Interesting. - how many elections have you done? As I've never seen one rejected from the doubtful pile for writing. Local variations perhaps.IanB2 said:
Such papers would be put aside for the RO (and normally the agents - not sure who that would be this time) to decide. The law is that if the writing is sufficient to potentially identify the voter (in theory rather than in practice!) then the paper is declared invalid (because by law it is a secret ballot and identifying yourself negates the ballot). The legal interpretation is that it therefore depends on what you have written and how distinctive your handwriting is. That said, my experience is that ballots with writing on are rejected much more often than not.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
Your post made me go check - and I find you do have a point. The relevant case law is Ruffle v Rogers from 1982, in which it was ruled that to rule out a vote you have to show that the voter can be identified, not simply that they might be. Which is a tougher test than I had imagined, and experienced.
I believe the rules go back to when and why the secret ballot was introduced in the first place, to prevent people being bribed (or otherwise induced) to vote in one particular way. Identifying yourself on the ballot was a way for the candidate's agent to confirm that the voter had done as intended.
Since it would be possible to "persuade" target voters to write some particular phrase on the ballot paper for the agent to see, it appears that Ruffle v Rogers introduces a loophole that could be exploited, were such practices to return?0 -
Mr. Seller, getting along sounds great, but it doesn't include the notion of foreign judges being able to impose laws upon us.
My mother's being agonising over how to vote. Last night she was saying we should've had a vote around the time of Maastricht, when it changed from being a trading bloc to a political union.0 -
If always thought it was named after the Norman Ede family - they had a castle in Kent and a manor oop North.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Submarine, not sure about the etymology, but the Anglo Saxon Chronicles are referred to in the biography of Alfred I'm currently reading, so I may give it a look at some point.
I do remember being surprised to learn, in the past, Leeds was around for the Domesday Book.
Mr. Rentool, I agree with some of that, but there's also a UKIP presence in some areas (one in my constituency) and old Labour sorts who are likelier to vote Leave than Remain. Hard to try and judge the whole area, though, because of its size.
They then got another piece of land in the North East to build a new castle and called it... drum roll... (imaginative lot those Normans)0 -
My guess is that it is a spoilt/invalid ballotglw said:
Yes I voted with so little hesitation today that I actually had to check I'd put a cross in the correct box.Cookie said:An odd feeling voting: never before have I felt so sure about which box to put my cross in. For me, the democratic arguments for leave outweigh the economic argument for remain.
Does anyone know what you do if that happens?
Oops, misread. Thought you said you had to check you had put a cross in ANY box.0 -
I have 3 hold up...timmo said:Has anybody got the link to the dpreadsheet that was posted here awhile back showing the projected paritys for individual boroughs
Hanretty original work:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/edit
@AndyJS Original work
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
My workings:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AQoI3SjmZta2KL1wMSHWrUozrFiXGfrqRq1U7fGhyAU/edit?usp=sharing0
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