Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A special referendum election morning PB/Polling Matters po

2456711

Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,247
    Alistair said:

    Assuming the eve of poll public polls are accurate then it's a Remain win.

    "Forward, the Light Brigade!"
    Was there a man dismay'd?
    Not tho' the soldier knew
    Someone had blunder'd:
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die:
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.

    (ok, we need a few more than that, but still)
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Moses_ said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Whoever arranges the weather clearly doesn't like UKIP...
    Look we have the Queen. Trying to claim God does not get you top spot.
    Well Liz has been reigning for some 63 years and they never forecast that :wink:
    Isn't there a song including the words "Long to reign over us"?

    Up in North-East England it is dry with some high cloud.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    Jobabob said:

    IanB2 said:

    IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.

    It's already at 6320 in the pre-market
    Markets confident of a Remain victory
    Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jobabob said:

    Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two

    So long as it rains from 7-9 and 5 -8 I'm good with that
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,247

    DavidL said:

    trawl said:

    Hurrah, voted @7 & was first in at my station (wasn't first there but those before me were for the other station in the same school hall). Here's hoping. Seemed busy to me for 7am but nothing to compare against - never been early before but couldn't wait any longer, been waiting since Maastricht.

    In Sindy I was on a polling station at 7 doing card duty (a rather pointless displacement activity but hey) and some arrived that early wearing their full kilt regalia. I had them down as maybes.....:-)
    Full kilt regalia, eh? Were their thistles very prickly? :)

    Ehh...One had a bit of an issue with his Skean Dhu, had to leave it outside the polling station with one of his pals. Thistles?
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Jobabob said:

    Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two

    back pm i understand. northern ireland's due to cop a wet afternoon according to bbc forecast just now and scotland moist but you expect that there in summer ;-)

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Do something amazing.

    Vote Leave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Horrid feeling we're going to get a hammering today. But never mind; I will have done what I believe to be right.

    I am still hopeful Leave won't get hammered. Anything closer than 54-46 to Remain will still allow Leave to say they have delivered a Final Written Warning to the EU. The EU may not believe it, but hopefully our domestic politicians will. The EU stiffing us for higher costs, greater population, a European Army, or sneaking in ever closer union needs to be stamped on hard over the coming years.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    Jobabob said:

    IanB2 said:

    IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.

    It's already at 6320 in the pre-market
    Markets confident of a Remain victory
    Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!
    My broker contacted me to say that on Friday there was HeeHaw chance of placing large buy or sell orders as volatility will be so high and markets makers will be flooded.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Interesting - a friend who I had down as a non voter has just posted the "I'm voting" thing on his facebook. No idea which way he has voted, though his other half favoured remain.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    its going to be fascinating to see if phone or online is closest.

    personally even if i was a ukip vote leave fanatic I'd never admit it over the phone to a stranger no matter how hard they pressed me
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Do something amazing.

    Vote Leave.

    Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?
  • betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    edited June 2016

    Horrid feeling we're going to get a hammering today. But never mind; I will have done what I believe to be right.

    I am still hopeful Leave won't get hammered. Anything closer than 54-46 to Remain will still allow Leave to say they have delivered a Final Written Warning to the EU. The EU may not believe it, but hopefully our domestic politicians will. The EU stiffing us for higher costs, greater population, a European Army, or sneaking in ever closer union needs to be stamped on hard over the coming years.
    The closer union bit, within the Eurozone at least, is a key part of the answer to the population movement, as they need to find a way of moving money south that is deliverable to the north, to stem the flow of people coming the other way. Although given the population projections for most Northern European countries we are in trouble if we don't get more people, anyway (offset in the UK by the larger families of the immigrants we already have). And there are good arguments in favour of some shared military capability within Europe as well....
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    IanB2 said:

    I somehow think that there aren't going to be any more referendums any time soon.....

    Especially as the EU are trying to ban them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jobabob said:

    IanB2 said:

    IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.

    It's already at 6320 in the pre-market
    Markets confident of a Remain victory
    Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!
    My broker contacted me to say that on Friday there was HeeHaw chance of placing large buy or sell orders as volatility will be so high and markets makers will be flooded.
    Just hold lol daft to try and trade this in the markets.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,132
    Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.

    I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!

    Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.

    Election Day. What a rush
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    nunu said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
    many a true word...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    Freggles said:

    Do something amazing.

    Vote Leave.

    Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?
    Indeed. As if the referendum hadn't done enough damage already.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
  • This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,667
    Just voted in North Tyneside. Polling station was dead.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,132
    Freggles said:

    Do something amazing.

    Vote Leave.

    Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?
    Vote remain to endorse Osborne and Goldman Sachs? Vote remain to endorse the smashing of Greece?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295

    nunu said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
    many a true word...
    As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....
  • Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    Probably been posted already, but if not this will cheer-up all non-Austrians: Icelandic TV commentary of their winning goal last night:
    https://twitter.com/telefootball/status/745700072596320256
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295

    Freggles said:

    Do something amazing.

    Vote Leave.

    Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?
    Vote remain to endorse Osborne and Goldman Sachs? Vote remain to endorse the smashing of Greece?
    Two out of those are probably toast however you vote....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited June 2016

    Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.

    I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!

    Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.

    Election Day. What a rush

    To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.

    Edit: or later.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
    many a true word...
    As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....
    What is your basis for thinking they don't care that much ?
    http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-31/immigration/introduction.aspx
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Scott_P said:
    Isn't that an old tweet on Jezza's account from when someone hacked it... still funny today!
  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    edited June 2016
    Pointless morning polling anecdote

    Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)

    "I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "

    No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.

    (edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Whoever arranges the weather clearly doesn't like UKIP...
    Look we have the Queen. Trying to claim God does not get you top spot.
    God works in mysterious ways, his wonders to perform.
    MY side does have a GOD actually... not exactly a surprising one mind you.

    Gus O'Donnell ‏@Gus_ODonnell · 16h16 hours ago
    My first tweet - I shall be following my head and my heart and voting Remain #VoteRemain

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    1/4 = 0.25
    1/1.28 = 0.78125

    0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125

    So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.

    If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.

    I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    Indigo said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
    many a true word...
    As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....
    What is your basis for thinking they don't care that much ?
    http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-31/immigration/introduction.aspx
    Polls over an extended period have established that only a small minority of people actually care about leaving the EU. Your link concerns immigration, which I accept is a bigger concern - hence why leave have been so desperate to make a link between the two, and start all sorts of scare stories about turkey and beyond - when the truth is that Brexit would do sod all to reduce levels of immigration....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited June 2016

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Whoever arranges the weather clearly doesn't like UKIP...
    Look we have the Queen. Trying to claim God does not get you top spot.
    God works in mysterious ways, his wonders to perform.
    MY side does have a GOD actually... not exactly a surprising one mind you.

    Gus O'Donnell ‏@Gus_ODonnell · 16h16 hours ago
    My first tweet - I shall be following my head and my heart and voting Remain #VoteRemain

    I think the worst thing about today will be how many people (entities and non-entities alike) are going to make their voting intentions public.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    *cough*
  • Probably been posted already, but if not this will cheer-up all non-Austrians: Icelandic TV commentary of their winning goal last night:
    https://twitter.com/telefootball/status/745700072596320256

    It sounds vaguely like the Norwegian "We gave your boys a terrible beating bloke" bloke on Nitrous Oxide.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Voted: couple in doing the same. weather in Cardiff dry cloudy mild.

    Won't stay up tonight got to sleep (!) v early start in the morning.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    IanB2 said:

    Indigo said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
    many a true word...
    As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....
    What is your basis for thinking they don't care that much ?
    http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-31/immigration/introduction.aspx
    Polls over an extended period have established that only a small minority of people actually care about leaving the EU. Your link concerns immigration, which I accept is a bigger concern - hence why leave have been so desperate to make a link between the two, and start all sorts of scare stories about turkey and beyond - when the truth is that Brexit would do sod all to reduce levels of immigration....
    It also won't cause World War 3 or refugee camps in Kent... funny old world eh ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
    As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    For weather watchers:

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Whoever arranges the weather clearly doesn't like UKIP...
    Look we have the Queen. Trying to claim God does not get you top spot.
    God works in mysterious ways, his wonders to perform.
    MY side does have a GOD actually... not exactly a surprising one mind you.

    Gus O'Donnell ‏@Gus_ODonnell · 16h16 hours ago
    My first tweet - I shall be following my head and my heart and voting Remain #VoteRemain

    I think the worst thing about today will be how many people (entities and non-entities alike) are going to make their voting intentions public.
    Yes in some way but then again isn't it good that because of having a democracy they all can.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
    As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?
    Your stake
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790

    This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!

    Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.

    I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!

    Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.

    Election Day. What a rush

    To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.

    Edit: or later.
    I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Pong said:

    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    1/4 = 0.25
    1/1.28 = 0.78125

    0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125

    So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.

    If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.

    I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.
    It is a hedge rather than a profit-making situation.
  • Pointless morning polling anecdote

    Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)

    "I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "

    No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.

    (edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)

    REJOICE!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.

    I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!

    Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.

    Election Day. What a rush

    To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.

    Edit: or later.
    I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide

    Clearly Leavers are better people than Remainers. But you still need us Charles :-)

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pong said:

    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    1/4 = 0.25
    1/1.28 = 0.78125

    0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125

    So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.

    If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.

    I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.
    Thx
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!

    Happy Birthday! Hope you get the present you voted for :smiley:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.

    I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!

    Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.

    Election Day. What a rush

    To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.

    Edit: or later.
    I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
    OK.

    How about if @RochdalePioneers hops on one leg?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Alistair said:

    Assuming the eve of poll public polls are accurate then it's a Remain win.

    Depends which polls and which methodology they use (they chop and change all the time).

    I've just voted. No sign of a high turnout, but it is pouring here.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    Do something amazing.

    Vote Leave.

    Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?
    Vote remain to endorse Osborne and Goldman Sachs? Vote remain to endorse the smashing of Greece?
    Only about 5% will see it that way.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.

    I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!

    Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.

    Election Day. What a rush

    To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.

    Edit: or later.
    I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
    Some Remainers on my fb feed have posted the sneering 'voting for leave is on Friday' meme- philistines.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    Assuming the eve of poll public polls are accurate then it's a Remain win.

    Depends which polls and which methodology they use (they chop and change all the time).

    I've just voted. No sign of a high turnout, but it is pouring here.
    Reminds me of the Hong Kong handover. Someone is angry.

    Draw whatever parallel with that as you wish....!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Good morning, everyone.

    It's a momentous day, of great importance to us all. Happy birthday, Mr. Putney.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Is that really Corbyn?

    Respect!

    It's an old Tweet from when his account was hacked some months ago.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
    As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?
    Keep digging Charles!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!

    Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.

    Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    This is my point, even long term committed Leavers such as myself don't expect Leave to win, but 2/7 Remain looks too good to be true. You're a punter, you know that if it looks too good to be true it generally is. My view is the vast majority of money is traders with no view on the referendum, they are simply dipping in and out, plenty with an informed view are going skint.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    Do something amazing.

    Vote Leave.

    Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?
    Vote remain to endorse Osborne and Goldman Sachs? Vote remain to endorse the smashing of Greece?
    Only about 5% will see it that way.
    Far more than 5%%.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,132
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.

    I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!

    Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.

    Election Day. What a rush

    To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.

    Edit: or later.
    I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
    Oh I don't mind, it was funny. And he wasn't far from the truth - I've arrived as the Polling station signs were being taken down from outside the building. Probably do the same tonight. And why not - my polling station is pretty much across the road from the count. Go and vote, cross the road, watch my ballot box come in, start the tally....
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    I truly believe we will win this on a low turnout (64%) all the indications are turnout will be around this despite this not being a normal GE. Yes people were engaged but remember all the polls last year said it was really, really close and in the end turnout fell apart from Scotland which is different.



    I also believe there is a significant shy leave vote in the phone polls, and if we just turnout we will win this, don't look at the markets they are learning the wrong lessons from GE, its as if the phone polls were hugley more accurate. They weren't it was only slightly more.


    We are more enthused, even accounting for different class breakdown and most think remain will win which means they will be complacent.


    We are going to do this today! Join a GOTV group in your area if you can.


    Vote leave.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    Sighs
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    Sean_F said:

    This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!

    Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.

    Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.

    It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,621

    Pointless morning polling anecdote

    Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)

    "I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "

    No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.

    (edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)

    Encouraging. Good to see people enthused by democracy in areas of usually low turnout. Hopefully they will have a positive experience and keep voting in the future.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    IPSOS-MORI ?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Lol if only he stuck to his principles and campaigned to leave.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Sean_F said:

    This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!

    Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.

    Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.

    It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.

    Will you stop fretting? The rain has stopped here and will clear the entire city shortly.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    It's a momentous day, of great importance to us all. Happy birthday, Mr. Putney.

    Thank you Morris!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/pickardje/status/745870837362864128


    I didn't know there was an option to rejoin the EEC on the ballot.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    edited June 2016
    Signs of the coming apocalypse.

    Not only storms and floods.
    But Southern trains run a train on time.

    Creepy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Just voted Leave. No hesitation.

    God, it felt good. Best ballot I've ever cast.

    (Btw, this was at 7.55am in Hart. Polling station no busier than a general election. Only 2-3 people inside.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Observer, Zeus supports Leave.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Scott_P said:
    That was 1975... how's our "influence in Europe" coming along?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    That's very bad for Leave. Hopefully some fishermen can take people to the polls
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,621

    Sean_F said:

    This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!

    Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.

    Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.

    It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.
    Wow, maybe God doesn't want a referendum! Seriously, hope they can keep all the polling stations open and everyone can help out with getting people to and from the ballot box - no matter which side they support.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Got to polling station just after seven in not so sunny Sutton and queues to vote.
    I think people were just happy to get in out of the rain.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    Scott_P said:
    Using the memory of dead women seems something of a theme for Remain.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.

    Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.

    It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.
    Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
    DYOR.
    Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
    Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
    As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?
    Keep digging Charles!
    Like
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    Voted! Made the bloody pencil mark so hard it practically went through the paper!
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    betfair even more interesting approx £60k wanting back Remain at around 1/4.

    Think I'll leave betfair alone and go out and vote, no idea what to make of it all.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
    A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!

    Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.

    Weather clearing up in London. But there will be a downpour about 4 pm. Other than that it should be dry. It will also rain in UKIP territory.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429

    Voted! Made the bloody pencil mark so hard it practically went through the paper!

    If I was counting that ballot paper, I'd call that a spoilt ballot.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    timmo said:

    Got to polling station just after seven in not so sunny Sutton and queues to vote.
    I think people were just happy to get in out of the rain.

    They were just happy to have done with the referendum, more like.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    rogerh said:

    Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
    A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.

    I'm going to don my tinfoil hat here and say postal votes won't be an issue for Remain.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Remain country?

    ttps://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/745868307903975428

    Newham was the place that reported more Leave volunteers than it knew what do with (700?), I think mostly we dont have a scooby who is going to vote for what and where, its all going to come down to differential turn out imo.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I'm wearing my lucky pants today, please don't let me down.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262

    Voted! Made the bloody pencil mark so hard it practically went through the paper!

    If I was counting that ballot paper, I'd call that a spoilt ballot.
    I don't doubt you would.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Freggles said:

    Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?

    So long as you express a clear preference for one side and don't write anything that could identify you.

    I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    Freggles said:

    Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?

    It will be put in the 'doubtful' pile, but as long as the intent is clear to the returning officer it should eventually count.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    rogerh said:

    Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
    A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.

    20-25%.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    surbiton said:

    This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
    It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!

    Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.

    Weather clearing up in London. But there will be a downpour about 4 pm. Other than that it should be dry. It will also rain in UKIP territory.
    Southam Observer's radar-fu is extremely weak
This discussion has been closed.