Assuming the eve of poll public polls are accurate then it's a Remain win.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!" Was there a man dismay'd? Not tho' the soldier knew Someone had blunder'd: Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die: Into the valley of Death Rode the six hundred.
IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.
It's already at 6320 in the pre-market
Markets confident of a Remain victory
Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!
Hurrah, voted @7 & was first in at my station (wasn't first there but those before me were for the other station in the same school hall). Here's hoping. Seemed busy to me for 7am but nothing to compare against - never been early before but couldn't wait any longer, been waiting since Maastricht.
In Sindy I was on a polling station at 7 doing card duty (a rather pointless displacement activity but hey) and some arrived that early wearing their full kilt regalia. I had them down as maybes.....:-)
Full kilt regalia, eh? Were their thistles very prickly?
Ehh...One had a bit of an issue with his Skean Dhu, had to leave it outside the polling station with one of his pals. Thistles?
Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two
back pm i understand. northern ireland's due to cop a wet afternoon according to bbc forecast just now and scotland moist but you expect that there in summer ;-)
Horrid feeling we're going to get a hammering today. But never mind; I will have done what I believe to be right.
I am still hopeful Leave won't get hammered. Anything closer than 54-46 to Remain will still allow Leave to say they have delivered a Final Written Warning to the EU. The EU may not believe it, but hopefully our domestic politicians will. The EU stiffing us for higher costs, greater population, a European Army, or sneaking in ever closer union needs to be stamped on hard over the coming years.
IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.
It's already at 6320 in the pre-market
Markets confident of a Remain victory
Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!
My broker contacted me to say that on Friday there was HeeHaw chance of placing large buy or sell orders as volatility will be so high and markets makers will be flooded.
Interesting - a friend who I had down as a non voter has just posted the "I'm voting" thing on his facebook. No idea which way he has voted, though his other half favoured remain.
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Horrid feeling we're going to get a hammering today. But never mind; I will have done what I believe to be right.
I am still hopeful Leave won't get hammered. Anything closer than 54-46 to Remain will still allow Leave to say they have delivered a Final Written Warning to the EU. The EU may not believe it, but hopefully our domestic politicians will. The EU stiffing us for higher costs, greater population, a European Army, or sneaking in ever closer union needs to be stamped on hard over the coming years.
The closer union bit, within the Eurozone at least, is a key part of the answer to the population movement, as they need to find a way of moving money south that is deliverable to the north, to stem the flow of people coming the other way. Although given the population projections for most Northern European countries we are in trouble if we don't get more people, anyway (offset in the UK by the larger families of the immigrants we already have). And there are good arguments in favour of some shared military capability within Europe as well....
IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.
It's already at 6320 in the pre-market
Markets confident of a Remain victory
Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!
My broker contacted me to say that on Friday there was HeeHaw chance of placing large buy or sell orders as volatility will be so high and markets makers will be flooded.
Just hold lol daft to try and trade this in the markets.
Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
many a true word...
As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
many a true word...
As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....
Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)
"I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "
No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.
(edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
1/4 = 0.25 1/1.28 = 0.78125
0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125
So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.
If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.
I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
many a true word...
As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....
Polls over an extended period have established that only a small minority of people actually care about leaving the EU. Your link concerns immigration, which I accept is a bigger concern - hence why leave have been so desperate to make a link between the two, and start all sorts of scare stories about turkey and beyond - when the truth is that Brexit would do sod all to reduce levels of immigration....
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.
many a true word...
As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....
Polls over an extended period have established that only a small minority of people actually care about leaving the EU. Your link concerns immigration, which I accept is a bigger concern - hence why leave have been so desperate to make a link between the two, and start all sorts of scare stories about turkey and beyond - when the truth is that Brexit would do sod all to reduce levels of immigration....
It also won't cause World War 3 or refugee camps in Kent... funny old world eh ?
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.
Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.
Edit: or later.
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
1/4 = 0.25 1/1.28 = 0.78125
0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125
So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.
If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.
I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.
It is a hedge rather than a profit-making situation.
Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)
"I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "
No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.
(edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)
Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.
Edit: or later.
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
Clearly Leavers are better people than Remainers. But you still need us Charles :-)
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
1/4 = 0.25 1/1.28 = 0.78125
0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125
So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.
If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.
I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Happy Birthday! Hope you get the present you voted for
Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.
Edit: or later.
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.
Edit: or later.
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
Some Remainers on my fb feed have posted the sneering 'voting for leave is on Friday' meme- philistines.
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.
Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
This is my point, even long term committed Leavers such as myself don't expect Leave to win, but 2/7 Remain looks too good to be true. You're a punter, you know that if it looks too good to be true it generally is. My view is the vast majority of money is traders with no view on the referendum, they are simply dipping in and out, plenty with an informed view are going skint.
Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.
Edit: or later.
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
Oh I don't mind, it was funny. And he wasn't far from the truth - I've arrived as the Polling station signs were being taken down from outside the building. Probably do the same tonight. And why not - my polling station is pretty much across the road from the count. Go and vote, cross the road, watch my ballot box come in, start the tally....
I truly believe we will win this on a low turnout (64%) all the indications are turnout will be around this despite this not being a normal GE. Yes people were engaged but remember all the polls last year said it was really, really close and in the end turnout fell apart from Scotland which is different.
I also believe there is a significant shy leave vote in the phone polls, and if we just turnout we will win this, don't look at the markets they are learning the wrong lessons from GE, its as if the phone polls were hugley more accurate. They weren't it was only slightly more.
We are more enthused, even accounting for different class breakdown and most think remain will win which means they will be complacent.
We are going to do this today! Join a GOTV group in your area if you can.
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.
Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.
It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.
Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)
"I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "
No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.
(edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)
Encouraging. Good to see people enthused by democracy in areas of usually low turnout. Hopefully they will have a positive experience and keep voting in the future.
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.
Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.
It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.
Will you stop fretting? The rain has stopped here and will clear the entire city shortly.
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.
Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.
It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.
Wow, maybe God doesn't want a referendum! Seriously, hope they can keep all the polling stations open and everyone can help out with getting people to and from the ballot box - no matter which side they support.
betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close. Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money. DYOR.
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.
As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?
Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL? A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.
Weather clearing up in London. But there will be a downpour about 4 pm. Other than that it should be dry. It will also rain in UKIP territory.
Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL? A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.
I'm going to don my tinfoil hat here and say postal votes won't be an issue for Remain.
Newham was the place that reported more Leave volunteers than it knew what do with (700?), I think mostly we dont have a scooby who is going to vote for what and where, its all going to come down to differential turn out imo.
Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL? A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present. It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.
Weather clearing up in London. But there will be a downpour about 4 pm. Other than that it should be dry. It will also rain in UKIP territory.
Comments
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
(ok, we need a few more than that, but still)
Up in North-East England it is dry with some high cloud.
Vote Leave.
personally even if i was a ukip vote leave fanatic I'd never admit it over the phone to a stranger no matter how hard they pressed me
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
https://twitter.com/telefootball/status/745700072596320256
Edit: or later.
http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-31/immigration/introduction.aspx
Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)
"I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "
No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.
(edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)
Gus O'Donnell @Gus_ODonnell · 16h16 hours ago
My first tweet - I shall be following my head and my heart and voting Remain #VoteRemain
1/1.28 = 0.78125
0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125
So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.
If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.
I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.
Won't stay up tonight got to sleep (!) v early start in the morning.
How about if @RochdalePioneers hops on one leg?
I've just voted. No sign of a high turnout, but it is pouring here.
Draw whatever parallel with that as you wish....!
It's a momentous day, of great importance to us all. Happy birthday, Mr. Putney.
I also believe there is a significant shy leave vote in the phone polls, and if we just turnout we will win this, don't look at the markets they are learning the wrong lessons from GE, its as if the phone polls were hugley more accurate. They weren't it was only slightly more.
We are more enthused, even accounting for different class breakdown and most think remain will win which means they will be complacent.
We are going to do this today! Join a GOTV group in your area if you can.
Vote leave.
https://twitter.com/marcayresphoto/status/745851604998455296
I didn't know there was an option to rejoin the EEC on the ballot.
Not only storms and floods.
But Southern trains run a train on time.
Creepy.
https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/issues/23-june-2016/advisers-back-remain-uk-goes-polls/
God, it felt good. Best ballot I've ever cast.
(Btw, this was at 7.55am in Hart. Polling station no busier than a general election. Only 2-3 people inside.)
https://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/745868307903975428
I think people were just happy to get in out of the rain.
Think I'll leave betfair alone and go out and vote, no idea what to make of it all.
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.
https://twitter.com/msorient/status/745860141560569858
I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper