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Due out "before lunch" according to TSE last night.surbiton said:IPSOS-MORI ?
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Freggles said:
Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
As long as it's not something that identifies yourself. The basic test on ballot papers is ' is the voters intention clear ? ' but anything that identifies you will void it.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
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Such papers would be put aside for the RO (and normally the agents - not sure who that would be this time) to decide. The law is that if the writing is sufficient to potentially identify the voter (in theory rather than in practice!) then the paper is declared invalid (because by law it is a secret ballot and identifying yourself negates the ballot). The legal interpretation is that it therefore depends on what you have written and how distinctive your handwriting is. That said, my experience is that ballots with writing on are rejected much more often than not.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
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Thanks for the weather pics @SouthamObserver - looks like winter weather rather than June!
Hope everyone who wants to vote is able to do so.0 -
So I can write " REMAIN despite Cameron."0
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I wouldn't risk it.Freggles said:So I can write " REMAIN despite Cameron."
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At the count last year I was amazed at the peculiar things people do to ballot papers in the privacy of a booth.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as you express a clear preference for one side and don't write anything that could identify you.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper0 -
Charles said:
So long as it rains from 7-9 and 5 -8 I'm good with thatJobabob said:Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two
So hard working people who have a stake in a strong economy are discouraged from voting?Charles said:
So long as it rains from 7-9 and 5 -8 I'm good with thatJobabob said:Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two
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Aslef have been injuncted out http://www.aslef.org.uk/information/100012/144472/consent_order/ so just rmt left fighting.Jonathan said:Signs of the coming apocalypse.
Not only storms and floods.
But Southern trains run a train on time.
Creepy.0 -
I'm sure I read Leavers were voting on FridayTOPPING said:
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.RochdalePioneers said:Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
Edit: or later.0 -
Or just Vote Leave! #Stillcampaigning #everyvotecountsFreggles said:So I can write " REMAIN despite Cameron."
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BF Leave has fluctuated between 4.4 and 4.7 in the last half an hour - up and down like....0
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My favourite was someone had drawn a non flaccid penis on their ballot and an arrow pointing to one candidate.blackburn63 said:
At the count last year I was amazed at the peculiar things people do to ballot papers in the privacy of a booth.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as you express a clear preference for one side and don't write anything that could identify you.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper
It was decided the voter was expressing a clear preference for one candidate.0 -
I think the risk is ( a) an inexperienced counter says it's void ( b ) there is no experienced Remain agent there to tell them they are wrong/ask for a second opinion.IanB2 said:
Such papers would be put aside for the RO (and normally the agents - not sure who that would be this time) to decide. The law is that if the writing is sufficient to potentially identify the voter, the paper is declared invalid. The legal interpretation is that it therefore depends on what you have written and how distinctive your handwriting is. That said, my experience is that ballots with writing on are rejected much more often than not.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
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oooooooh 4.1 now0
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I'm basing this on the large DKs in all the polls whether they be for Remain or Leave.Sean_F said:
Depends which polls and which methodology they use (they chop and change all the time).Alistair said:Assuming the eve of poll public polls are accurate then it's a Remain win.
I've just voted. No sign of a high turnout, but it is pouring here.0 -
3.90
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Leave country - is that a memo to yourself?SouthamObserver said:Leave country ...
https://twitter.com/msorient/status/7458601415605698580 -
Wank, wank, wank, good guy, wank.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as you express a clear preference for one side and don't write anything that could identify you.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper0 -
Yes. I've seen a " cock and balls " drawn on a ballot paper. Because they were drawn entirely within a box it was argued quite rightly it was a valid vote and was counted.TheScreamingEagles said:
My favourite was someone had drawn a non flaccid penis on their ballot and an arrow pointing to one candidate.blackburn63 said:
At the count last year I was amazed at the peculiar things people do to ballot papers in the privacy of a booth.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as you express a clear preference for one side and don't write anything that could identify you.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper
It was decided the voter was expressing a clear preference for one candidate.0 -
I'm the saddest man in the world, I've just spent a minute hitting the refresh button and saw Leave matched at 3.9.Mortimer said:BF Leave has fluctuated between 4.4 and 4.7 in the last half an hour - up and down like....
Madness0 -
That might make the intent unclear, but you can write on the ballot and valid.the PCC was full of messages on the papers. So long as your not identifiable and you have indicated a clear preference.Sean_F said:
Not unless you intend to spoil your ballot.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
When I stood for the council, against a Labour opponent, someone wrote "They're both crap" on the ballot.0 -
Good point about agents. I guess each campaign has been asked to supply a named representative to every count for the purposes of monitoring the count process and discussing spoils ballots etc. Can anyone confirm this?IanB2 said:
Such papers would be put aside for the RO (and normally the agents - not sure who that would be this time) to decide. The law is that if the writing is sufficient to potentially identify the voter (in theory rather than in practice!) then the paper is declared invalid (because by law it is a secret ballot and identifying yourself negates the ballot). The legal interpretation is that it therefore depends on what you have written and how distinctive your handwriting is. That said, my experience is that ballots with writing on are rejected much more often than not.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
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Why don't you vote first, and then do that?!blackburn63 said:
I'm the saddest man in the world, I've just spent a minute hitting the refresh button and saw Leave matched at 3.9.Mortimer said:BF Leave has fluctuated between 4.4 and 4.7 in the last half an hour - up and down like....
Madness0 -
Just what all those Labour Remainers want to hear, siding with Osborne AND Fatcha!Scott_P said:0 -
Hope happy couples are t split by the vote, apparently my parents voted different ways in 75, and just 13 years and 4 kids later they spli.0
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The last figure I saw was that 17% of people are registered to vote postally, and (a handful of reports of) turnouts are approaching 80%. If you allow for low to mid-60s turnout generally then this suggests that the proportion of final votes that will be postal will be towards the lower end of your range. However the extent to which your point makes any difference depends on how many potentially floating voters there are in the population of already-cast postal votes. My guess is that this segment of the population is low on floaters, both by definition (i.e. these are people who have taken the trouble to apply for a postal vote and then cast it early) and because the types of population categories that typically have PVs are the elderly, students, ethnic minorities, expats - three at least of which are populations assumed to lean strongly one way or the other.Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
When OGH was running for Gen Sec at the LSE, he was one of three candidates. Next to one of the candidates was written "Welsh bastard". Against another "Scottish bastard" And against OGH was written "Fat bastard".YellowSubmarine said:
Yes. I've seen a " cock and balls " drawn on a ballot paper. Because they were drawn entirely within a box it was argued quite rightly it was a valid vote and was counted.TheScreamingEagles said:
My favourite was someone had drawn a non flaccid penis on their ballot and an arrow pointing to one candidate.blackburn63 said:
At the count last year I was amazed at the peculiar things people do to ballot papers in the privacy of a booth.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as you express a clear preference for one side and don't write anything that could identify you.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper
It was decided the voter was expressing a clear preference for one candidate.
My father's agent's argument was that this was a clear vote in favour of him, as his was the only vote with no mention of nationality.0 -
Are they?Charles said:
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decideTOPPING said:
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.RochdalePioneers said:Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
Edit: or later.0 -
We're busy collecting IOUs. The plan is to cash them all in in 2312.CornishBlue said:
That was 1975... how's our "influence in Europe" coming along?Scott_P said:0 -
I always found ballot paper genitalia to be particularly hirsute. Getting to see all the disputed ballots is one of the few perks of being an election agent.YellowSubmarine said:
Yes. I've seen a " cock and balls " drawn on a ballot paper. Because they were drawn entirely within a box it was argued quite rightly it was a valid vote and was counted.TheScreamingEagles said:
My favourite was someone had drawn a non flaccid penis on their ballot and an arrow pointing to one candidate.blackburn63 said:
At the count last year I was amazed at the peculiar things people do to ballot papers in the privacy of a booth.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as you express a clear preference for one side and don't write anything that could identify you.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper
It was decided the voter was expressing a clear preference for one candidate.0 -
Turnout in Dore has been described at GE patterns.0
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In my view such a comment would be unlikely to get past an RO. Firstly, unless it was in block capitals there are enough letters there for someone potentially to recognise the handwriting. Secondly it is the sort of comment someone may have made publicly during the campaign.kle4 said:
That might make the intent unclear, but you can write on the ballot and valid.the PCC was full of messages on the papers. So long as your not identifiable and you have indicated a clear preference.Sean_F said:
Not unless you intend to spoil your ballot.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
When I stood for the council, against a Labour opponent, someone wrote "They're both crap" on the ballot.0 -
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
I think Newham and Tower hamlets will be closer than people think.Indigo said:
Newham was the place that reported more Leave volunteers than it knew what do with (700?), I think mostly we dont have a scooby who is going to vote for what and where, its all going to come down to differential turn out imo.SouthamObserver said:Remain country?
ttps://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/7458683079039754280 -
I've got a feeling that come the next GE there'll be a lot of that going on.Sean_F said:
Not unless you intend to spoil your ballot.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
When I stood for the council, against a Labour opponent, someone wrote "They're both crap" on the ballot.0 -
I thought the Times were supporting RemainScott_P said:0 -
What was it that Keynes said about the long run..?rcs1000 said:
We're busy collecting IOUs. The plan is to cash them all in in 2312.CornishBlue said:
That was 1975... how's our "influence in Europe" coming along?Scott_P said:
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Well, Charles knows polling habits. Professional people tend to vote 7 - 9am and Labour voters tend to vote 5 - 8pm. However, some of those "Labour" voters will be voting Leave today.Jobabob said:Charles said:
So long as it rains from 7-9 and 5 -8 I'm good with thatJobabob said:Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two
So hard working people who have a stake in a strong economy are discouraged from voting?Charles said:
So long as it rains from 7-9 and 5 -8 I'm good with thatJobabob said:Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two
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In her final years though Thatcher was clearly anti EUMarqueeMark said:
Just what all those Labour Remainers want to hear, siding with Osborne AND Fatcha!Scott_P said:0 -
Nobody cares or takes note of such grandstanding anyway - it's a truly pointless actTheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't risk it.Freggles said:So I can write " REMAIN despite Cameron."
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Mike: This binary choice really screws people like me who like to vote tactically0
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I did. Copy of my post to our local Facebook politics group yesterday:London said:
Are they?Charles said:
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
There have been enough people posting advice and propaganda and in some cases abuse in this referendum about how to vote. I've mainly stayed out because its not been a debate its ended up as an argument and a viscous one at that.
But I am a democrat and think it vitally important that everyone votes in every election. A lot of people don't vote because they say "you're all the same" or "it doesn't matter how I vote".
This isn't a general election. Every single vote counts equally. There are no constituencies, no government's being elected, no backroom deals or u-turns, just a simple question. And every vote counts. Every voice has equal weight. They total all the votes as a country and declare one result.
So whatever you think, whichever side you favour, please vote tomorrow.
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Well, i've voted, but I've been trying to detach myself from emotion from the result. If we're remaining in, we're remaining in. If we're leaving, we're leaving
What will be will be.0 -
@RichardWiseman: Well, that was the easiest multiple choice exam I have ever sat.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike: This binary choice really screws people like me who like to vote tactically
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The cafe where I have breakfast has a ban on the R-word today after an incident yesterday in which a customer asked a member of staff how he was going to vote then started abusing him for his answer.0
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Good idea :-(Casino_Royale said:
Why don't you vote first, and then do that?!blackburn63 said:
I'm the saddest man in the world, I've just spent a minute hitting the refresh button and saw Leave matched at 3.9.Mortimer said:BF Leave has fluctuated between 4.4 and 4.7 in the last half an hour - up and down like....
Madness0 -
So Farage chickened out of the channel 4 debate to have dinner with his son.
Frit! Or does he know Leave are going to get the dockside hooker treatment0 -
What you mean he hasn't done a vote swap this time ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:Mike: This binary choice really screws people like me who like to vote tactically
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'Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.
Weather clearing up in London. But there will be a downpour about 4 pm. Other than that it should be dry. It will also rain in UKIP territory.'
Was raining in Essex this morning which is Leave heartland. However the forecast is that it should largely have cleared up by the evening so I will vote about 7pm and I expect many will follow suit0 -
I've seen dozens of ballots with messages on them go through with no one the least concerned about handwriting recognition! The only time I was surprised no agents disagreed with that interpretation, that it was give, was one where the lab candidate's name had been crossed out and nye Bevin written in its place.IanB2 said:
In my view such a comment would be unlikely to get past an RO. Firstly, unless it was in block capitals there are enough letters there for someone potentially to recognise the handwriting. Secondly it is the sort of comment someone may have made publicly during the campaign.kle4 said:
That might make the intent unclear, but you can write on the ballot and valid.the PCC was full of messages on the papers. So long as your not identifiable and you have indicated a clear preference.Sean_F said:
Not unless you intend to spoil your ballot.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
When I stood for the council, against a Labour opponent, someone wrote "They're both crap" on the ballot.
One person was clearly worried in the PCC though, as they stuck a list it note with text to their ballot, the ballot itself on,y had the voting Mark.0 -
I think several places will.nunu said:
I think Newham and Tower hamlets will be closer than people think.Indigo said:
Newham was the place that reported more Leave volunteers than it knew what do with (700?), I think mostly we dont have a scooby who is going to vote for what and where, its all going to come down to differential turn out imo.SouthamObserver said:Remain country?
ttps://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/745868307903975428
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I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
@Telegraph: FTSE 100 breaks 6,300 and pound hits 2016 high as Brexit vote gets underway #EUref https://t.co/CFOuj72pb00
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As a counter, it cheers me up, breaks up the monotony.Jobabob said:
Nobody cares or takes note of such grandstanding anyway - it's a truly pointless actTheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't risk it.Freggles said:So I can write " REMAIN despite Cameron."
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I think he's probably had enough of the whole thing. Like most of country by now no doubt.TheScreamingEagles said:So Farage chickened out of the channel 4 debate to have dinner with his son.
Frit! Or does he know Leave are going to get the dockside hooker treatment
Whatever the result, it's clear there's a lot of unhappy people out there with the way things are. This referendum isn't going to change that in all likelihood.0 -
A lot of PVers are in the AB category too. Most will vote Remain.Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
I don't think there can be a referendum happening today. Nigel Farage, the most trusted politician in the UK, assured us that Cameron would not deliver it.0
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You are Ernest Bevin and I claim my Foreign Office.SouthamObserver said:
Excellent article. It's pretty crap in a lot of working class parts of the UK. And because working class votes don't really matter in normal elections no-one takes much notice. What would change things is a change to the voting system. But it won't happen, sadly. Tomorrow we'll be back to normal - neither the Leave nor the Remain elites will give the people who'll decide this vote a second thought.YellowSubmarine said:The UK is now two nations, staring across a political chasm
http://gu.com/p/4mfnz?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard < John Harris' polling day piece.
If UKIP could just morph into a Eurosceptic, tough on immigration, socially conservative, big on the NHS, pro-union style party it could really breakthrough. But it won't. It's leadership (and I suspect its membership) just would not wear it.
Edit: I thought the article was tired and hardly original. Is that the usual quality of John Harris' thought?0 -
We need decisive margins in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland.0
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Well said.RochdalePioneers said:
I did. Copy of my post to our local Facebook politics group yesterday:London said:
Are they?Charles said:
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decide
There have been enough people posting advice and propaganda and in some cases abuse in this referendum about how to vote. I've mainly stayed out because its not been a debate its ended up as an argument and a viscous one at that.
But I am a democrat and think it vitally important that everyone votes in every election. A lot of people don't vote because they say "you're all the same" or "it doesn't matter how I vote".
This isn't a general election. Every single vote counts equally. There are no constituencies, no government's being elected, no backroom deals or u-turns, just a simple question. And every vote counts. Every voice has equal weight. They total all the votes as a country and declare one result.
So whatever you think, whichever side you favour, please vote tomorrow.
Democracy is important, people have fought and died for it, we take for granted what doesn't happen in large parts of the world.
No matter which way you feel about the issue at hand, it's important that you vote.0 -
Unless voters are shy Leavers to pollsters as well as in public the concept is meaningless and will be cancelled out by undecideds who most polls show lean Remain when pushednunu said:I truly believe we will win this on a low turnout (64%) all the indications are turnout will be around this despite this not being a normal GE. Yes people were engaged but remember all the polls last year said it was really, really close and in the end turnout fell apart from Scotland which is different.
I also believe there is a significant shy leave vote in the phone polls, and if we just turnout we will win this, don't look at the markets they are learning the wrong lessons from GE, its as if the phone polls were hugley more accurate. They weren't it was only slightly more.
We are more enthused, even accounting for different class breakdown and most think remain will win which means they will be complacent.
We are going to do this today! Join a GOTV group in your area if you can.
Vote leave.0 -
That are overexcited about last night's phone polls, methinks.Scott_P said:@Telegraph: FTSE 100 breaks 6,300 and pound hits 2016 high as Brexit vote gets underway #EUref https://t.co/CFOuj72pb0
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Interesting. - how many elections have you done? As I've never seen one rejected from the doubtful pile for writing. Local variations perhaps.IanB2 said:
Such papers would be put aside for the RO (and normally the agents - not sure who that would be this time) to decide. The law is that if the writing is sufficient to potentially identify the voter (in theory rather than in practice!) then the paper is declared invalid (because by law it is a secret ballot and identifying yourself negates the ballot). The legal interpretation is that it therefore depends on what you have written and how distinctive your handwriting is. That said, my experience is that ballots with writing on are rejected much more often than not.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
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As Farage said recently he does not believe a word Cameron saysRichard_Nabavi said:I don't think there can be a referendum happening today. Nigel Farage, the most trusted politician in the UK, assured us that Cameron would not deliver it.
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What's the position if a postal voter dies before the count. Is their vote still valid?Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
Of all the fears that must accompany Nigel's chosen path in life, I distinctly doubt a televised debate with Anna Soubry is one of them.TheScreamingEagles said:So Farage chickened out of the channel 4 debate to have dinner with his son.
Frit! Or does he know Leave are going to get the dockside hooker treatment0 -
And students. And ex pats. I agree with Sean that the Pv as a whole probably leans to leave. But not by as much as some people think. The deaths is a fair point, however. If the winning margin is less than 3000 it may have been decided by those no longer with us.surbiton said:
A lot of PVers are in the AB category too. Most will vote Remain.Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
Blue sky and sunshine here in West of Scotland , perfect summers day.MikeSmithson said:
I love that picture which was taken by me on general election day 2005 just before the polls opened at my polling station. Its got a lot of life and, I'd suggest, quite in keeping with this morning's weather.RobD said:The old polling place picture is back! Next we need the smiling Gordons and it'll be just like old times.
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Did you watch that shambles of a debate shouting match? It was absolutely terrible, Farage made the right call.TheScreamingEagles said:So Farage chickened out of the channel 4 debate to have dinner with his son.
Frit! Or does he know Leave are going to get the dockside hooker treatment0 -
Today is Independence Day - 12.50 showing at the Odeon!0
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Nope. I was watching the football.Sandpit said:
Did you watch that shambles of a debate shouting match? It was absolutely terrible, Farage made the right call.TheScreamingEagles said:So Farage chickened out of the channel 4 debate to have dinner with his son.
Frit! Or does he know Leave are going to get the dockside hooker treatment0 -
Voting by proxy today - it feels somewhat anticlimatic for such a big occasion!
To add to the anecdata: been speaking with a friend involved with the Labour In movement in Reading. Canvass returns for Reading show all but the 2 poorest wards voting for remain, with the rich tory voting wards splitting 80-20 for remain. these being the highest turnout wards as well.
Obviously Reading is not like all other areas, but to my knowledge it's not expected to be one of the most Remain areas or the country?
The 80-20 split seems like a lot, but I do think the thought of the working class voting out will have scared the middle class into voting remain. Whether that will be enough I'm not sure.
I'll stick with my prediction for 52-48 for Remain, based on high middle class tory turnout for remain and swingback to status quo option in the booth0 -
Agents are appointed according to registered organisation for the campaign (theres a phrase but I cant remember it.)Sandpit said:
Good point about agents. I guess each campaign has been asked to supply a named representative to every count for the purposes of monitoring the count process and discussing spoils ballots etc. Can anyone confirm this?IanB2 said:
Such papers would be put aside for the RO (and normally the agents - not sure who that would be this time) to decide. The law is that if the writing is sufficient to potentially identify the voter (in theory rather than in practice!) then the paper is declared invalid (because by law it is a secret ballot and identifying yourself negates the ballot). The legal interpretation is that it therefore depends on what you have written and how distinctive your handwriting is. That said, my experience is that ballots with writing on are rejected much more often than not.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
In East Riding we have
Remain Groups
BSE, Labour, Lib Dem
Leave Groups
Vote Leave, Ukip, Grassroots Out
Only one polling agent per group is allowed in a polling station at a time.
At the count there will be all 3 Leave groups represented (though we have divvied up the counting centres between us). No idea about BSE other than Leave outnumber them 4-1.0 -
Interesting little observation on Sky News the other day. The third largest counting area is Leeds (just over half a million votes, behind Birmingham and Northern Ireland). it was pale blue, signifying it's expected to be slightly Leave.
Whilst I thought outlying areas might be, the city itself being for Leave did surprise me a bit.
Birmingham was also pale blue.0 -
Of course (how would you know?), just the same as if you vote before breakfast and drop dead at lunchtime...Wanderer said:
What's the position if a postal voter dies before the count. Is their vote still valid?Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
If you look at their approach to the single market and competition policy, pretty well. If you're of a don't subsidise failing industries mind-set. The steel making stuff and some "Thatcherites" reactions were pretty illuminating.CornishBlue said:
That was 1975... how's our "influence in Europe" coming along?Scott_P said:0 -
Yes.Wanderer said:
What's the position if a postal voter dies before the count. Is their vote still valid?Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
For Leave.surbiton said:We need decisive margins in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
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Taken on average, rather a sensible life approach I'd say. I think Cameron is like Blair; I don't even think he knows he's lying anymore.currystar said:
As Farage said recently he does not believe a word Cameron saysRichard_Nabavi said:I don't think there can be a referendum happening today. Nigel Farage, the most trusted politician in the UK, assured us that Cameron would not deliver it.
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Morning all. I think my self-imposed extended referendum purdah is offically ovah.
So, if I understand correctly, we're being asked to believe one side who tell us it's better to be inside the tent being pissed on, but standing near the exit so at least the pissers recognise that we aren't really enjoying it; or the other side who tell us it's better to be outside the tent pissing on ourselves because sovereignty. It's a tough one.
In any case, I'm undergoing a rather more personalised Leave outcome today and becoming unemployed, which may have taken my focus off the referendum. I'm looking forward to taking back control, but hoping that someone else will wish to trade with me in due course, ideally on the same favourable terms as if I had remained.
Happy voting, everyone....0 -
80/20 seems very high. Reading should lead Remain but not by that much.Paristonda said:Voting by proxy today - it feels somewhat anticlimatic for such a big occasion!
To add to the anecdata: been speaking with a friend involved with the Labour In movement in Reading. Canvass returns for Reading show all but the 2 poorest wards voting for remain, with the rich tory voting wards splitting 80-20 for remain. these being the highest turnout wards as well.
Obviously Reading is not like all other areas, but to my knowledge it's not expected to be one of the most Remain areas or the country?
The 80-20 split seems like a lot, but I do think the thought of the working class voting out will have scared the middle class into voting remain. Whether that will be enough I'm not sure.
I'll stick with my prediction for 52-48 for Remain, based on high middle class tory turnout for remain and swingback to status quo option in the booth0 -
Yes.Wanderer said:
What's the position if a postal voter dies before the count. Is their vote still valid?Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
Metcheck Weather Warning - UPDATE
In summary, there's a great deal more rain to come today in SE England and East Anglia
Issue Time
Thu 23 Jun 2016: 08:00 BST New/Updated
Valid From
Thu 23 Jun 2016 : 14:00 BST(In 6hrs)
Valid Until
Fri 24 Jun 2016 : 00:00 BST (16hrs remaining)
Weather Watch for Thunderstorms / Heavy Rain / Hail / Severe Wind Gusts / Tornadoes
Last night we saw the first plume of moist air affect parts of the Southeast and Eastern England. Later on Thursday we have "Round 2" as the plume once again engages with the moist air and further intense thunderstorms will develop.
The crucial element today is daytime heating as the trigger is likely to come in the form of sea breezes across Northern France and Southern England.
That said, areas most at risk of thunderstorms today will be across Southern and Southeast England then later into parts of Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Essex and Suffolk.
These storms will have a slightly different flavour than the ones yesterday. A larger risk of 2-3cm hailstones are possible which could cause damage to crops, especially across Lincolnshire and Norfolk later. Also, the risk of intense heavy rain with flash flooding possible across Southeast England and later parts of Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Essex and Suffolk where 25-75mm (1-3") of rain is possible in a short period.
Storms will have the risk of strong, gusty winds around the edges where 50-60mph possible. This is important to note if you are having any outdoor activities today and if you see an approaching storm then take action.
Upper air charts show a moderate risk of bowing storms across Southern and Southeast England this afternoon. If storms to develop along Southern England later and head Northeast then there is a moderate to high risk of them merging with the risk of tornadoes and funnel clouds.0 -
That's true as well. But, if it's 50/50 overall, I'd expect postals to be more like 60/40 Leave.surbiton said:
A lot of PVers are in the AB category too. Most will vote Remain.Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
Yes.Wanderer said:
What's the position if a postal voter dies before the count. Is their vote still valid?Sean_F said:
I think that postal votes will favour Leave, because postal voters are older than average, but I don't think the poll ratings at the time will make much difference, as postal voters tend to be strongly committed already. It's estimated that about 3,000 postal voters will have died by 10 pm tonight, which gives Leave a tiny advantage.rogerh said:
Sean do you think postal votes will TO Leaves advantage reflect their higher poll ratings at the period of time where postal votes were returned?Sean_F said:
20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
Better news there for Remain thenmalcolmg said:
Blue sky and sunshine here in West of Scotland , perfect summers day.MikeSmithson said:
I love that picture which was taken by me on general election day 2005 just before the polls opened at my polling station. Its got a lot of life and, I'd suggest, quite in keeping with this morning's weather.RobD said:The old polling place picture is back! Next we need the smiling Gordons and it'll be just like old times.
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Mr. Polruan, my sympathies. Hope you can get back into work soon.
Or find yourself seduced by a nymphomaniac millionairess.0 -
Sensible choice.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope. I was watching the football.Sandpit said:
Did you watch that shambles of a debate shouting match? It was absolutely terrible, Farage made the right call.TheScreamingEagles said:So Farage chickened out of the channel 4 debate to have dinner with his son.
Frit! Or does he know Leave are going to get the dockside hooker treatment0 -
That's me finished trading then. £100 profit will pay for a meal out regardless of the result...blackburn63 said:
I'm the saddest man in the world, I've just spent a minute hitting the refresh button and saw Leave matched at 3.9.Mortimer said:BF Leave has fluctuated between 4.4 and 4.7 in the last half an hour - up and down like....
Madness0 -
Risky, depending on what you put a zealous scrutiniser for the opposition could get it ruled out, particularly if you have an inexperienced/ineffectual official in charge. I'd leave it personallyFreggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
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Broken cloud and occasional sunshine in Aberdeen.0
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FWIW, Qrious have 51/37 Leave. I'm slightly sceptical.0
