politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A special referendum election morning PB/Polling Matters po
Comments
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"Forward, the Light Brigade!"Alistair said:Assuming the eve of poll public polls are accurate then it's a Remain win.
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
(ok, we need a few more than that, but still)0 -
Isn't there a song including the words "Long to reign over us"?Moses_ said:
Well Liz has been reigning for some 63 years and they never forecast thatDavidL said:
Look we have the Queen. Trying to claim God does not get you top spot.IanB2 said:
Whoever arranges the weather clearly doesn't like UKIP...Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
Up in North-East England it is dry with some high cloud.0 -
Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!Jobabob said:
Markets confident of a Remain victoryIanB2 said:
It's already at 6320 in the pre-marketpeter_from_putney said:IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.
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Ehh...One had a bit of an issue with his Skean Dhu, had to leave it outside the polling station with one of his pals. Thistles?Innocent_Abroad said:
Full kilt regalia, eh? Were their thistles very prickly?DavidL said:
In Sindy I was on a polling station at 7 doing card duty (a rather pointless displacement activity but hey) and some arrived that early wearing their full kilt regalia. I had them down as maybes.....:-)trawl said:Hurrah, voted @7 & was first in at my station (wasn't first there but those before me were for the other station in the same school hall). Here's hoping. Seemed busy to me for 7am but nothing to compare against - never been early before but couldn't wait any longer, been waiting since Maastricht.
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back pm i understand. northern ireland's due to cop a wet afternoon according to bbc forecast just now and scotland moist but you expect that there in summer ;-)Jobabob said:Looking at the radar the heavy rain over London should clear in an hour or two
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Do something amazing.
Vote Leave.0 -
I am still hopeful Leave won't get hammered. Anything closer than 54-46 to Remain will still allow Leave to say they have delivered a Final Written Warning to the EU. The EU may not believe it, but hopefully our domestic politicians will. The EU stiffing us for higher costs, greater population, a European Army, or sneaking in ever closer union needs to be stamped on hard over the coming years.Luckyguy1983 said:Horrid feeling we're going to get a hammering today. But never mind; I will have done what I believe to be right.
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My broker contacted me to say that on Friday there was HeeHaw chance of placing large buy or sell orders as volatility will be so high and markets makers will be flooded.IanB2 said:
Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!Jobabob said:
Markets confident of a Remain victoryIanB2 said:
It's already at 6320 in the pre-marketpeter_from_putney said:IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.
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Interesting - a friend who I had down as a non voter has just posted the "I'm voting" thing on his facebook. No idea which way he has voted, though his other half favoured remain.0
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its going to be fascinating to see if phone or online is closest.
personally even if i was a ukip vote leave fanatic I'd never admit it over the phone to a stranger no matter how hard they pressed me0 -
Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?Casino_Royale said:Do something amazing.
Vote Leave.0 -
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
The closer union bit, within the Eurozone at least, is a key part of the answer to the population movement, as they need to find a way of moving money south that is deliverable to the north, to stem the flow of people coming the other way. Although given the population projections for most Northern European countries we are in trouble if we don't get more people, anyway (offset in the UK by the larger families of the immigrants we already have). And there are good arguments in favour of some shared military capability within Europe as well....MarqueeMark said:
I am still hopeful Leave won't get hammered. Anything closer than 54-46 to Remain will still allow Leave to say they have delivered a Final Written Warning to the EU. The EU may not believe it, but hopefully our domestic politicians will. The EU stiffing us for higher costs, greater population, a European Army, or sneaking in ever closer union needs to be stamped on hard over the coming years.Luckyguy1983 said:Horrid feeling we're going to get a hammering today. But never mind; I will have done what I believe to be right.
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Just hold lol daft to try and trade this in the markets.Alistair said:
My broker contacted me to say that on Friday there was HeeHaw chance of placing large buy or sell orders as volatility will be so high and markets makers will be flooded.IanB2 said:
Very clearly. Now 6327 and rising, £ another half cent up on the $ having been rising all week. There'll be market turmoil if they have called this wrong!Jobabob said:
Markets confident of a Remain victoryIanB2 said:
It's already at 6320 in the pre-marketpeter_from_putney said:IG Index has the FTSE 100 finishing up around 60 points today at ~ 6321 which would be four consecutive days of increases which taken together amount to 300 points or 5% .... one of its strongest recoveries over recent years, although still more than 780 points or 11% below its all time closing high of 7104 reached 14 months ago on 27 April 2015, followed by a May in which we should certainly have sold and gone away and for quite some time it has proved.
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Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush0 -
many a true word...nunu said:
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/0 -
Indeed. As if the referendum hadn't done enough damage already.Freggles said:
Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?Casino_Royale said:Do something amazing.
Vote Leave.0 -
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!0 -
Just voted in North Tyneside. Polling station was dead.0
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Vote remain to endorse Osborne and Goldman Sachs? Vote remain to endorse the smashing of Greece?Freggles said:
Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?Casino_Royale said:Do something amazing.
Vote Leave.0 -
As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....Scrapheap_as_was said:
many a true word...nunu said:
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/0 -
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
Probably been posted already, but if not this will cheer-up all non-Austrians: Icelandic TV commentary of their winning goal last night:
https://twitter.com/telefootball/status/7457000725963202560 -
Two out of those are probably toast however you vote....RochdalePioneers said:
Vote remain to endorse Osborne and Goldman Sachs? Vote remain to endorse the smashing of Greece?Freggles said:
Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?Casino_Royale said:Do something amazing.
Vote Leave.0 -
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.RochdalePioneers said:Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
Edit: or later.0 -
What is your basis for thinking they don't care that much ?IanB2 said:
As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....Scrapheap_as_was said:
many a true word...nunu said:
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-31/immigration/introduction.aspx0 -
Isn't that an old tweet on Jezza's account from when someone hacked it... still funny today!Scott_P said:0 -
Pointless morning polling anecdote
Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)
"I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "
No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.
(edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)
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MY side does have a GOD actually... not exactly a surprising one mind you.Luckyguy1983 said:
God works in mysterious ways, his wonders to perform.DavidL said:
Look we have the Queen. Trying to claim God does not get you top spot.IanB2 said:
Whoever arranges the weather clearly doesn't like UKIP...Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
Gus O'Donnell @Gus_ODonnell · 16h16 hours ago
My first tweet - I shall be following my head and my heart and voting Remain #VoteRemain
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1/4 = 0.25Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.
1/1.28 = 0.78125
0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125
So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.
If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.
I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.0 -
Polls over an extended period have established that only a small minority of people actually care about leaving the EU. Your link concerns immigration, which I accept is a bigger concern - hence why leave have been so desperate to make a link between the two, and start all sorts of scare stories about turkey and beyond - when the truth is that Brexit would do sod all to reduce levels of immigration....Indigo said:
What is your basis for thinking they don't care that much ?IanB2 said:
As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....Scrapheap_as_was said:
many a true word...nunu said:
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-31/immigration/introduction.aspx0 -
I think the worst thing about today will be how many people (entities and non-entities alike) are going to make their voting intentions public.Scrapheap_as_was said:
MY side does have a GOD actually... not exactly a surprising one mind you.Luckyguy1983 said:
God works in mysterious ways, his wonders to perform.DavidL said:
Look we have the Queen. Trying to claim God does not get you top spot.IanB2 said:
Whoever arranges the weather clearly doesn't like UKIP...Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
Gus O'Donnell @Gus_ODonnell · 16h16 hours ago
My first tweet - I shall be following my head and my heart and voting Remain #VoteRemain0 -
*cough*Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
It sounds vaguely like the Norwegian "We gave your boys a terrible beating bloke" bloke on Nitrous Oxide.SouthamObserver said:Probably been posted already, but if not this will cheer-up all non-Austrians: Icelandic TV commentary of their winning goal last night:
https://twitter.com/telefootball/status/7457000725963202560 -
Voted: couple in doing the same. weather in Cardiff dry cloudy mild.
Won't stay up tonight got to sleep (!) v early start in the morning.0 -
It also won't cause World War 3 or refugee camps in Kent... funny old world eh ?IanB2 said:
Polls over an extended period have established that only a small minority of people actually care about leaving the EU. Your link concerns immigration, which I accept is a bigger concern - hence why leave have been so desperate to make a link between the two, and start all sorts of scare stories about turkey and beyond - when the truth is that Brexit would do sod all to reduce levels of immigration....Indigo said:
What is your basis for thinking they don't care that much ?IanB2 said:
As well as the 5% or so of the population who have been long-exercised (being polite) about the EU issue, the leavers need another 45% from people who actually don't care that much, in order to win. Quite often in this forum I see people observing the attitudes and characteristics of the 5% and projecting it onto the other 45 (or hopefully 40)%....Scrapheap_as_was said:
many a true word...nunu said:
Most ukip areas to be bucketed. Not that it will make a difference, some ukippers will walk over glass to vote.Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-31/immigration/introduction.aspx0 -
As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?peter_from_putney said:
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
Yes in some way but then again isn't it good that because of having a democracy they all can.TOPPING said:
I think the worst thing about today will be how many people (entities and non-entities alike) are going to make their voting intentions public.Scrapheap_as_was said:
MY side does have a GOD actually... not exactly a surprising one mind you.Luckyguy1983 said:
God works in mysterious ways, his wonders to perform.DavidL said:
Look we have the Queen. Trying to claim God does not get you top spot.IanB2 said:
Whoever arranges the weather clearly doesn't like UKIP...Sunil_Prasannan said:For weather watchers:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
Gus O'Donnell @Gus_ODonnell · 16h16 hours ago
My first tweet - I shall be following my head and my heart and voting Remain #VoteRemain0 -
Your stakeCharles said:
As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?peter_from_putney said:
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.peter_from_putney said:This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
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I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decideTOPPING said:
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.RochdalePioneers said:Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
Edit: or later.0 -
It is a hedge rather than a profit-making situation.Pong said:
1/4 = 0.25Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.
1/1.28 = 0.78125
0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125
So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.
If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.
I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.0 -
REJOICE!YossariansChild said:Pointless morning polling anecdote
Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)
"I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "
No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.
(edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)0 -
Clearly Leavers are better people than Remainers. But you still need us Charles :-)Charles said:
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decideTOPPING said:
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.RochdalePioneers said:Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
Edit: or later.
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ThxPong said:
1/4 = 0.25Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.
1/1.28 = 0.78125
0.78125 + 0.25 = 1.03125
So there's a 3.1% overround - ie you'd make a loss if you were to back both.
If leave was @ 5 (4/1) then there would be an underround and you'd be able to profit by backing both.
I think these days betfair automatically creams off any underround/overround profit on their markets, so the odds never reach a point where backing all outcomes (or laying all outcomes) guarantees a profit.
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Happy Birthday! Hope you get the present you voted forpeter_from_putney said:This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!0 -
OK.Charles said:
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decideTOPPING said:
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.RochdalePioneers said:Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
Edit: or later.
How about if @RochdalePioneers hops on one leg?0 -
Only about 5% will see it that way.RochdalePioneers said:
Vote remain to endorse Osborne and Goldman Sachs? Vote remain to endorse the smashing of Greece?Freggles said:
Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?Casino_Royale said:Do something amazing.
Vote Leave.0 -
Some Remainers on my fb feed have posted the sneering 'voting for leave is on Friday' meme- philistines.Charles said:
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decideTOPPING said:
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.RochdalePioneers said:Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
Edit: or later.0 -
Reminds me of the Hong Kong handover. Someone is angry.Sean_F said:
Depends which polls and which methodology they use (they chop and change all the time).Alistair said:Assuming the eve of poll public polls are accurate then it's a Remain win.
I've just voted. No sign of a high turnout, but it is pouring here.
Draw whatever parallel with that as you wish....!0 -
Good morning, everyone.
It's a momentous day, of great importance to us all. Happy birthday, Mr. Putney.0 -
It's an old Tweet from when his account was hacked some months ago.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Is that really Corbyn?
Respect!0 -
Keep digging Charles!Charles said:
As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?peter_from_putney said:
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.SouthamObserver said:
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.peter_from_putney said:This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!0 -
This is my point, even long term committed Leavers such as myself don't expect Leave to win, but 2/7 Remain looks too good to be true. You're a punter, you know that if it looks too good to be true it generally is. My view is the vast majority of money is traders with no view on the referendum, they are simply dipping in and out, plenty with an informed view are going skint.peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
Far more than 5%%.Freggles said:
Only about 5% will see it that way.RochdalePioneers said:
Vote remain to endorse Osborne and Goldman Sachs? Vote remain to endorse the smashing of Greece?Freggles said:
Vote Leave and endorse an anti immigrant campaign? Vote Leave to reject any deal involving freedom of movement?Casino_Royale said:Do something amazing.
Vote Leave.0 -
Oh I don't mind, it was funny. And he wasn't far from the truth - I've arrived as the Polling station signs were being taken down from outside the building. Probably do the same tonight. And why not - my polling station is pretty much across the road from the count. Go and vote, cross the road, watch my ballot box come in, start the tally....Charles said:
I know this is supposed to be a jest , but you might reflect on the fact that Leavers are encouraging everyone to vote, whichever way they decideTOPPING said:
To liven it up a bit, why don't you see how close you can get to the polls closing before you vote. Give yourself a 100yds dash at, say, 9.59.30.RochdalePioneers said:Damp outside my Croydon Premier Inn. On business in that London til 2 then train home and straight to our operations Base. As a stroke of genius one of the areas we thought worth knocking out is under lock down til 9pm for cycle racing, so no idea how that will work.
I'll tour polling stations looking at turnout (am I allowed to report that here. ..?) then as is my usual practice I'll vote as the polling station closes. And then off to the count!
Quite a lot of us in the office working from home tomorrow myself included. Caffeine and sugar will keep me going until I put the kids tomorrow then I may collapse.
Election Day. What a rush
Edit: or later.0 -
I truly believe we will win this on a low turnout (64%) all the indications are turnout will be around this despite this not being a normal GE. Yes people were engaged but remember all the polls last year said it was really, really close and in the end turnout fell apart from Scotland which is different.
I also believe there is a significant shy leave vote in the phone polls, and if we just turnout we will win this, don't look at the markets they are learning the wrong lessons from GE, its as if the phone polls were hugley more accurate. They weren't it was only slightly more.
We are more enthused, even accounting for different class breakdown and most think remain will win which means they will be complacent.
We are going to do this today! Join a GOTV group in your area if you can.
Vote leave.0 -
SighsCharles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.0 -
It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.Sean_F said:
Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.SouthamObserver said:
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.peter_from_putney said:This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!
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Encouraging. Good to see people enthused by democracy in areas of usually low turnout. Hopefully they will have a positive experience and keep voting in the future.YossariansChild said:Pointless morning polling anecdote
Back from our targeted dawn raid and checking in at a couple of my polling stations. Spoke to the Presiding Officer at a polling station in our most WWC ward (GE 30% turnout)
"I couldn't believe it when I got here. They were queuing to vote before 7am. "
No idea if typical but interesting. Anyway time for quick breakfast and shower before heading out.
(edited for spelling - not much sleep and up very early leafletting!)0 -
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IPSOS-MORI ?0
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Lol if only he stuck to his principles and campaigned to leave.Paul_Bedfordshire said:0 -
Will you stop fretting? The rain has stopped here and will clear the entire city shortly.SouthamObserver said:
It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.Sean_F said:
Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.SouthamObserver said:
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.peter_from_putney said:This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!0 -
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Thank you Morris!Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
It's a momentous day, of great importance to us all. Happy birthday, Mr. Putney.0 -
Scott_P said:
twitter.com/pickardje/status/745870837362864128
I didn't know there was an option to rejoin the EEC on the ballot.
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Signs of the coming apocalypse.
Not only storms and floods.
But Southern trains run a train on time.
Creepy.0 -
The polling that matters
https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/issues/23-june-2016/advisers-back-remain-uk-goes-polls/0 -
Just voted Leave. No hesitation.
God, it felt good. Best ballot I've ever cast.
(Btw, this was at 7.55am in Hart. Polling station no busier than a general election. Only 2-3 people inside.)0 -
Mr. Observer, Zeus supports Leave.0
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That was 1975... how's our "influence in Europe" coming along?Scott_P said:0 -
That's very bad for Leave. Hopefully some fishermen can take people to the pollsSouthamObserver said:Leave country ...
https://twitter.com/marcayresphoto/status/7458516049984552960 -
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Wow, maybe God doesn't want a referendum! Seriously, hope they can keep all the polling stations open and everyone can help out with getting people to and from the ballot box - no matter which side they support.SouthamObserver said:
It is. Reports that it's the heaviest 12 hours of rain in parts of London for over 50 years. And still it falls.Sean_F said:
Weather won't make much difference unless it's catastrophic.SouthamObserver said:
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.peter_from_putney said:This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!0 -
Got to polling station just after seven in not so sunny Sutton and queues to vote.
I think people were just happy to get in out of the rain.0 -
Using the memory of dead women seems something of a theme for Remain.Scott_P said:0 -
Likepeter_from_putney said:
Keep digging Charles!Charles said:
As I said I've never looked at betfair. If you buy Remain at 1.28 what's your downside if they lose?peter_from_putney said:
Because you'd make a loss ...... come on Charles, wake up! I thought you were supposed to be good at sums.Charles said:
Am not on Betfair but If you can buy Remain at 1.28 and Leave at 4 why wouldn't you?peter_from_putney said:
It does seem surprising that one can still buy Remain at 1.28, representing a potential 26.6% return, net of Betfair's 5% commission. I suppose it demonstrates punters' lack of confidence in the pollsters, and also the fact that a couple of them still show the result as being very close.blackburn63 said:betfair is still mystifying me, over £150k waiting to lay Remain at around 2/7.
Some bank accounts and reputations are going to be well and truly trashed.
Certainly, I wouldn't be going anywhere near this, notwithstanding that at first glance it looks like easy money.
DYOR.
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Voted! Made the bloody pencil mark so hard it practically went through the paper!0
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betfair even more interesting approx £60k wanting back Remain at around 1/4.
Think I'll leave betfair alone and go out and vote, no idea what to make of it all.0 -
Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
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Weather clearing up in London. But there will be a downpour about 4 pm. Other than that it should be dry. It will also rain in UKIP territory.SouthamObserver said:
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.peter_from_putney said:This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!0 -
If I was counting that ballot paper, I'd call that a spoilt ballot.Luckyguy1983 said:Voted! Made the bloody pencil mark so hard it practically went through the paper!
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I'm going to don my tinfoil hat here and say postal votes won't be an issue for Remain.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.0 -
Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?0
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Newham was the place that reported more Leave volunteers than it knew what do with (700?), I think mostly we dont have a scooby who is going to vote for what and where, its all going to come down to differential turn out imo.SouthamObserver said:Remain country?
ttps://twitter.com/newhamrecorder/status/745868307903975428
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I'm wearing my lucky pants today, please don't let me down.0
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I don't doubt you would.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I was counting that ballot paper, I'd call that a spoilt ballot.Luckyguy1983 said:Voted! Made the bloody pencil mark so hard it practically went through the paper!
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So long as you express a clear preference for one side and don't write anything that could identify you.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
I was always amazed at how many people wrote/signed their name on the ballot paper0 -
It will be put in the 'doubtful' pile, but as long as the intent is clear to the returning officer it should eventually count.Freggles said:Can I write on the ballot paper and have it count so long as I do a cross in a box?
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20-25%.rogerh said:Does anyone know the likely proportion of votes that will bE POSTAL?
A further point the majority of postal votes are likely to have been cast when leave was more strongly ahead in the polls.This could provide leave with significant lead in vote going into polling day.
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Southam Observer's radar-fu is extremely weaksurbiton said:
Weather clearing up in London. But there will be a downpour about 4 pm. Other than that it should be dry. It will also rain in UKIP territory.SouthamObserver said:
Still chucking it down in NW5, with thunder. Reports of localised flooding across London. Turnout is surely going to be affected. Remain need every single London vote it can get. If this carries on for any length of time they should start getting very worried.peter_from_putney said:This part of London is still completely blanketed by very dark clouds, although it's not actually raining at present.
It really shouldn't be like this on my birthday!0