politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two massive poll boosts for REMAIN with voting starting in
Comments
-
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.0 -
It is quite amazing paging through the comments here tonight, how one possibly dubious poll can upend the psychological state so many.Pulpstar said:The polls today are much of a muchness.
People seem to react here in the order they are released though instead of the order of the fieldwork...0 -
Truth be told, I think they are mostly pissing in the wind.TCPoliticalBetting said:
There are some strange weightings for sure. It really needs a fuller analysis tomorrow. For example is the weighted ratio of 118 (18-24) and 229 (65+) correct when i thought I read Yougov? saying that it needed to be circa 1:3? on page 1chestnut said:Comres all respondents 10/10 = 51/49 Remain - and that's with a sample stuffed with Labour graduates at 78% turnout.
They have often changed methodologies which risks herding. I find that I am looking at who did okay at the GE2015 and who has done well recently for something vaguely trustworthy.
It narrows the field enormously. I agree with OGH and think it is extremely close.
I know a fair few Labour voters who are abstaining or voting leave. It seems to be an age thing.0 -
She does not have Nicola's gravitas. In fact, very few do.HYUFD said:
Could Diane James be Nicola Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond?GIN1138 said:
UKIP have to get rid of Farage and get their own version of Nicola... If they do that we might, just might, see England abandoning the Tories and Labour in favour of UKIP over the next 2-3 years....HYUFD said:
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain winSeanT said:I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.0 -
PB over-reacts to polls? Really?PeterC said:
It is quite amazing paging through the comments here tonight how one possibly dubious poll can upend the psychological state so many.Pulpstar said:The polls today are much of a muchness.
People seem to react here in the order they are released though instead of the order of the fieldwork...
0 -
My only real worry is what the EU will do to us when we vote remain. There is going to be an absolute tsunami of stuff thrown at us that has been held off until after the vote. I doubt Dave's negotiated deal will ever get agreed as that was also held off to after the vote.
One things for sure the EU will certainly move very quickly to ensure this democracy malarkey of actually asking the people what they want will never ever happen again. Meanwhile all the EU regulars will get back on the EU gravy train as before and business as usual.
And we still won't ever win Eurovision or get a British EU president.0 -
He's right and some of the posh or well off labour remain supporters on here should be ahamed of yourselves.Mortimer said:Great finale from Trev. Kavanagh - who really gets his readers
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.0 -
He said last week he was leaving Friday morning to return on Monday...peter_from_putney said:
Said with such feeling Benedict.BenedictWhite said:
Bye.AlastairMeeks said:I'm just putting this out there: if Leave win, I'm leaving the country on Friday.
I would have said "Top trolling" but thought I would troll him back
0 -
Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......0 -
No.HYUFD said:
Could Diane James be Nicola Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond?GIN1138 said:
UKIP have to get rid of Farage and get their own version of Nicola... If they do that we might, just might, see England abandoning the Tories and Labour in favour of UKIP over the next 2-3 years....HYUFD said:
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain winSeanT said:I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.0 -
Can Huffpost pollster get the blimmin Yougov and Comres in. My model is out.0
-
Is there any evidence that polling averages are more accurate? They're useful in identifying trends but not so good at producing figures. It's not unusual for the actual result to fall outside the entire range of eve-of-poll surveys.HYUFD said:
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of pollTheScreamingEagles said:
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.nunu said:
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.0 -
I expect we'll see some of the scottish seats declare quite early.
Turnout, IMO, could be quite a bit lower than in E/W.
Fewer votes to count. Quicker declarations.
0 -
Anecdote alert - at least 3 mates have bet on this election in the manner people bet on the national.
They posted the betslips gleefully.
All for Remain. All at odds that could have been bettered.
Unlike tyson, I am pay no heed to the markets on this - too many people involved, not enough understanding of the people. We shall see.
To use a well tested term, 4.5 on a coin toss? I'm on.0 -
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.Sean_F said:
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.Jonathan said:Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
Nowt queer as folk0 -
Test0
-
In places like Cheltenham the Lib Dems have lead the remain campaign. I guess if you live in Manchester or Leicester it will be very dfferentbookseller said:
I think the Lib Dems are going to look good as well. They fought an unambiguous, positive pro-EU message which might help to win back some of the young voters who engaged in pram toy-throwing after the introduction of tuition fees.HYUFD said:
It isn't Remain will most likely win narrowly, probably somewhere between 55-45 and 51-49 as people stick with the status quo as in Scotland for fear of something worse. They will still have the same grudges over immigration etc and when nothing much changes except to see UKIP go up in the polls accordingly! UKIP are the real winners out of a close Remain win, it could be a somewhat pyrrhic victory for the establishment partiesJonathan said:Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.
But yes - it will be interesting to see what happens to UKIP if it's a close Remain. If not, let the in-fighting begin...0 -
Ashamed spelling mistake below.0
-
Not much... or those calling leavers little Englanders etc.EPG said:
What do you think about those who call opposing voters traitors?BenedictWhite said:
Bad Al and his ilk are vicious in their language towards their opponents almost to the point of being contrary to the 1986 public order act (incitement to violence.)Jonathan said:I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
Vitriol isn't helpful to the debate.
However Bad Al and his ilk are always vicious to their opponents.0 -
Has Kavanagh suddenly expressed an interest in the plight of the working class?Tykejohnno said:
He's right and some of the posh or well off labour remain supporters on here should be ahamed of yourselves.Mortimer said:Great finale from Trev. Kavanagh - who really gets his readers
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.0 -
And you should be ashamedTykejohnno said:Ashamed for post below,on phone.
0 -
PB only over-reacts to subssamplesGIN1138 said:
PB over-reacts to polls? Really?PeterC said:
It is quite amazing paging through the comments here tonight how one possibly dubious poll can upend the psychological state so many.Pulpstar said:The polls today are much of a muchness.
People seem to react here in the order they are released though instead of the order of the fieldwork...0 -
I look forward to the post referendum analysis of what went well/wrong.nunu said:
the Vote leave ground war was very weak. They couldn't even send a poster out to me and were still leafletting door to door yesterday instead of knocking up? that doesn't make sense when people have already by and large made their minds up.SouthamObserver said:As per previous thread, my Labour Remain friend here in London is very confident. Gave short shrift to my arguments for Leave.
Labour CLP had data from previous elections whereas Leave.Eu (UKIP) couldn't share their data with Vote leave so vote leave went into this campaign blind.
I think Cameron should thank the labour party and labour grassroot members for saving his bacon.0 -
As my wife's Glasgow Gran used to say "You must think I sailed up the Clyde on a water biscuit...."KentRising said:
What about the Clyde?Theuniondivvie said:Be prepared for Brexit Jock shock.
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7457404583080099850 -
Well, I hope so.Jobabob said:Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
Good night and enjoy tomorrow everyone.0 -
Just received a YouGov poll alert. It's a bit late in the day to complete a survey.0
-
They are not perfect but they normally predict the winner, eg the RCP poll average correctly predicted the winner of the last 3 US presidential elections even if not all the final polls diddavid_herdson said:
Is there any evidence that polling averages are more accurate? They're useful in identifying trends but not so good at producing figures. It's not unusual for the actual result to fall outside the entire range of eve-of-poll surveys.HYUFD said:
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of pollTheScreamingEagles said:
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.nunu said:
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.0 -
Jonathan was right, this doesn't feel like a 1997 or a 2010 (or even a 2015)Jobabob said:Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
I think the best analogy with the EU we heard was it was like the British weather, we grumble about it, but not much you can do about it. Some days it is great, other days, not so much, you live with it.0 -
He has more heart than some on here for they voters.Jobabob said:
Has Kavanagh suddenly expressed an interest in the plight of the working class?Tykejohnno said:
He's right and some of the posh or well off labour remain supporters on here should be ahamed of yourselves.Mortimer said:Great finale from Trev. Kavanagh - who really gets his readers
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.0 -
And specifically, Scottish subsamples.kle4 said:
PB only over-reacts to subssamplesGIN1138 said:
PB over-reacts to polls? Really?PeterC said:
It is quite amazing paging through the comments here tonight how one possibly dubious poll can upend the psychological state so many.Pulpstar said:The polls today are much of a muchness.
People seem to react here in the order they are released though instead of the order of the fieldwork...0 -
The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.0
-
LolRobD said:0 -
They weren't overreactions, they were just early. By many years.Mortimer said:
And specifically, Scottish subsamples.kle4 said:
PB only over-reacts to subssamplesGIN1138 said:
PB over-reacts to polls? Really?PeterC said:
It is quite amazing paging through the comments here tonight how one possibly dubious poll can upend the psychological state so many.Pulpstar said:The polls today are much of a muchness.
People seem to react here in the order they are released though instead of the order of the fieldwork...0 -
No but she could certainly take UKIP further up in the pollssurbiton said:
She does not have Nicola's gravitas. In fact, very few do.HYUFD said:
Could Diane James be Nicola Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond?GIN1138 said:
UKIP have to get rid of Farage and get their own version of Nicola... If they do that we might, just might, see England abandoning the Tories and Labour in favour of UKIP over the next 2-3 years....HYUFD said:
I think there is a small chance UKIP get a poll lead or two by the conference season if this is the result, Leave voting Tories will not have anything to lose with Corbyn still in charge of Labour by registering a Kipper protest and will want to give a protest against Cameron and Osborne, while wwc Labour voters will also want to make sure their feeelings on immigration do not get lost in the midst of a Remain winSeanT said:I confess I am already feeling a slight lightening of spirit.
So we lost. So it goes The fight will be resumed in different ways, after the summer, and we can make the REMAINERS suffer, for ever, for their treachery and cowardice. Because they are traitors and cowards. That is what they ARE.
Meantime, let's get back to work, football, cricket, having sex, and sleep.0 -
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.0 -
Not sure what I'm more nervous for tomorrow... the election results, or my dentist appointment (cries)0
-
If Yougov is correct, it will be Labour voters who will have won it.0
-
Thanks TSE - that's me off to bed in that case.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tomorrow, before lunchtime.peter_from_putney said:FWIW when is the Ipsos/MORI poll expected? You never know it might just add to the excitement. We are already assured of at least one pollster being found to have been talking out of its proverbial.
The fieldwork ended at 9pm tonight0 -
Should those who voted for a high-skilled, southern English services-based based economic model, and against public spending and benefits, be ashamed of themselves?Tykejohnno said:
He's right and some of the posh or well off labour remain supporters on here should be ahamed of yourselves.Mortimer said:Great finale from Trev. Kavanagh - who really gets his readers
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.0 -
Looks like we've had two outliers tonight, ComRes showing Remain 8% ahead and TNS showing Leave 7% ahead with most likely voters.0
-
At least it offers an element of uncertainty, unless a real landslide is on the cardsTheScreamingEagles said:
No, it made election night even more fun.HYUFD said:
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of pollTheScreamingEagles said:
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.nunu said:
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.0 -
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?TheScreamingEagles said:
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.Sean_F said:
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.Jonathan said:Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
Nowt queer as folk
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.0 -
No one can say they weren't warned...Moses_ said:My only real worry is what the EU will do to us when we vote remain. There is going to be an absolute tsunami of stuff thrown at us that has been held off until after the vote. I doubt Dave's negotiated deal will ever get agreed as that was also held off to after the vote.
One things for sure the EU will certainly move very quickly to ensure this democracy malarkey of actually asking the people what they want will never ever happen again. Meanwhile all the EU regulars will get back on the EU gravy train as before and business as usual.
And we still won't ever win Eurovision or get a British EU president.0 -
Not to go over all Scottish Nat, but I have two lifelong non-voters saying they are definitely voting for Leave tomorrow - one, in their 60s, asked me to go with them to vote. So that has probably made me more inclined to see the vote as being a big deal, a big change, when perhaps that is not representative.0
-
Really? I think you'll find that many of the "posh Labourite Remainers" you denounce on here are from working class backgrounds...Tykejohnno said:
He has more heart than some on here for they voters.Jobabob said:
Has Kavanagh suddenly expressed an interest in the plight of the working class?Tykejohnno said:
He's right and some of the posh or well off labour remain supporters on here should be ahamed of yourselves.Mortimer said:Great finale from Trev. Kavanagh - who really gets his readers
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.0 -
Dad is voting against the Conservative leader for the first time in his life.TheScreamingEagles said:
Jonathan was right, this doesn't feel like a 1997 or a 2010 (or even a 2015)Jobabob said:Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
I think the best analogy with the EU we heard was it was like the British weather, we grumble about it, but not much you can do about it. Some days it is great, other days, not so much, you live with it.
That is a big deal.
He might start eating garlic soon! Boundaries are being broken.0 -
Correct. Almost certainly, they would be decisive.david_herdson said:
Isn't it about 5%? The 1% figure is I think of the whole electorate.Sean_F said:
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.Jonathan said:Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
0 -
Quite right. The EU is far from perfect. But better off in. Good luck getting the vote out tomorrow, TSETheScreamingEagles said:
Jonathan was right, this doesn't feel like a 1997 or a 2010 (or even a 2015)Jobabob said:Two things today that have convinced me that Remain have got this shit.
1. Presenter on WATO saying Leave campaign manager had told her today "it's very hard to win a referendum against the status quo"
2. TSE's canvassing report from Pudsey - "we are getting a great reception on the doorstep. Heh" surely that area is as marginal as they come, being lower middle class and up north
Just straws in the wind. I say this as one who is long on Leave.......
I think the best analogy with the EU we heard was it was like the British weather, we grumble about it, but not much you can do about it. Some days it is great, other days, not so much, you live with it.0 -
Do you think that, given the traditional death penalty for treason and no punishment for being a little Englander, calling pro-EU people traitors would be more likely to cause violence against them?BenedictWhite said:
Not much... or those calling leavers little Englanders etc.EPG said:
What do you think about those who call opposing voters traitors?BenedictWhite said:
Bad Al and his ilk are vicious in their language towards their opponents almost to the point of being contrary to the 1986 public order act (incitement to violence.)Jonathan said:I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
Vitriol isn't helpful to the debate.
However Bad Al and his ilk are always vicious to their opponents.0 -
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.FrankBooth said:The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
0 -
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.0 -
It would have also called 2000 right but for 500 hanging chads!HYUFD said:
They are not perfect but they normally predict the winner, eg the RCP poll average correctly predicted the winner of the last 3 US presidential elections even if not all the final polls diddavid_herdson said:
Is there any evidence that polling averages are more accurate? They're useful in identifying trends but not so good at producing figures. It's not unusual for the actual result to fall outside the entire range of eve-of-poll surveys.HYUFD said:
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of pollTheScreamingEagles said:
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.nunu said:
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.0 -
You always get people voting for weird reasons.BenedictWhite said:
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?TheScreamingEagles said:
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.Sean_F said:
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.Jonathan said:Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
Nowt queer as folk
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
Last year I dealt with a voter who said she wasn't voting Tory because of all those deaths at Stafford, she was convinced it happened under the Tories and it showed you can't trust the Tories with the NHS
I also remember the voter who was voting Lib Dem because he fancied Miriam Gonzales0 -
I'll ask "Pat the cleaner" if she's going to vote. If she is turnout will be huge, but she won't !kle4 said:Not to go over all Scottish Nat, but I have two lifelong non-voters saying they are definitely voting for Leave tomorrow - one, in their 60s, asked me to go with them to vote. So that has probably made me more inclined to see the vote as being a big deal, a big change, when perhaps that is not representative.
0 -
They'll be no reconciliation after a narrow Remain win. So much of the ' Kipper wing of Leave is about failure to progress through the Kubler-Ross model. A Remain win will just reenact the original death in front of their eyes.0
-
That, and the question of how anyone is going to construct any kind of Parliamentary majority in the next few years.kle4 said:
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.0 -
If the country seems to remember voting for Labour maybe the samles are plain wrong. And the methodologies have not changed enough to pick up hard working tories who simply can't get to the phone? Maybe even the Leave leads are understating their leads because not enough tories are answering.TheScreamingEagles said:
In some of their online polls, but has been a consistent pattern in their phone polls, the country seems to remember voting in a Labour majority in 2015.chestnut said:
Do ICM have that online?TheScreamingEagles said:
You don't make that point when ICM finds similar findings but has Leave ahead.chestnut said:Comres basics:
Labour 2015 voters : 256
Tory 2015 voters : 233
Curious.
You keep avoiding the obvious - they phone up in a rush to collect a poll, get Labour voting grads and get these results.
The research constantly points to it.
I'm not avoiding anything obvious, that's why the ORB phone poll was so interesting.
0 -
Well off and out of touch.Jobabob said:
Really? I think you'll find that many of the "posh Labourite Remainers" you denounce on here are from working class backgrounds...Tykejohnno said:
He has more heart than some on here for they voters.Jobabob said:
Has Kavanagh suddenly expressed an interest in the plight of the working class?Tykejohnno said:
He's right and some of the posh or well off labour remain supporters on here should be ahamed of yourselves.Mortimer said:Great finale from Trev. Kavanagh - who really gets his readers
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.0 -
Indeed, though am not sure it was around thenJobabob said:
It would have also called 2000 right but for 500 hanging chads!HYUFD said:
They are not perfect but they normally predict the winner, eg the RCP poll average correctly predicted the winner of the last 3 US presidential elections even if not all the final polls diddavid_herdson said:
Is there any evidence that polling averages are more accurate? They're useful in identifying trends but not so good at producing figures. It's not unusual for the actual result to fall outside the entire range of eve-of-poll surveys.HYUFD said:
On that basis we would have PM Ed Miliband, President Mitt Romney and maybe even an independent Scotland. The polling average is what you need to look at and the final polls for each pollster, particularly on eve of pollTheScreamingEagles said:
I always work on the principle assume the worst poll for my side is the most accurate.nunu said:
stop trolling! Lol. you were right. Happy?TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
TNS means we're leaving the EU.
We are 15 months after the great polling fuck up, and I spoke to a pollster yesterday, and he told me he still had no confidence in the polls.
They are making some assumptions, which may or may not prove to be right.0 -
Why do you say that Tyke?Tykejohnno said:
Well off and out of touch.Jobabob said:
Really? I think you'll find that many of the "posh Labourite Remainers" you denounce on here are from working class backgrounds...Tykejohnno said:
He has more heart than some on here for they voters.Jobabob said:
Has Kavanagh suddenly expressed an interest in the plight of the working class?Tykejohnno said:
He's right and some of the posh or well off labour remain supporters on here should be ahamed of yourselves.Mortimer said:Great finale from Trev. Kavanagh - who really gets his readers
Immigration has affected Labour voters in a way that is undeniable - except to the Labour party.
Newsnight panel agreed that Labour are going to be riven by this. Sorry HYUFD.0 -
No.EPG said:
Do you think that, given the traditional death penalty for treason and no punishment for being a little Englander, calling pro-EU people traitors would be more likely to cause violence against them?BenedictWhite said:
Not much... or those calling leavers little Englanders etc.EPG said:
What do you think about those who call opposing voters traitors?BenedictWhite said:
Bad Al and his ilk are vicious in their language towards their opponents almost to the point of being contrary to the 1986 public order act (incitement to violence.)Jonathan said:I do not like the way that Farage has been vilified, especially towards the end of this campaign.
Vitriol isn't helpful to the debate.
However Bad Al and his ilk are always vicious to their opponents.0 -
-
Tommorow's vote will be instructive as to whether class or age is the biggest determinant in VI and turnout.0
-
It's a pretty rocky situation - I mean, Cameron couldn't get anything sensitive through before, he certainly won't now, similar numbers could disrupt a Johnson premiership, even if we contrived a general election current indications are, somehow, everyone would do badly.AlastairMeeks said:
That, and the question of how anyone is going to construct any kind of Parliamentary majority in the next few years.kle4 said:
Some losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat, particularly if it were close. But they will be defeatable, since other losers (like me if Remain win) will want the matter put to bed for a long time.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.
It's only really going to be a problem for people like the Tory party, where the division is much more urgent.
We are in the hands of civil servants for a few years I think.
Good night everybody. Leave 54-46.0 -
I've witnessed a lot of LD to UKIP switches down here.BenedictWhite said:
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?TheScreamingEagles said:
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.Sean_F said:
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.Jonathan said:Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
Nowt queer as folk
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
Was one of the reasons why I knew the 2010 LDs crutch wasn't going to happen.0 -
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.BenedictWhite said:
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.FrankBooth said:The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
0 -
Oh dear. Still, it's all fun...TheScreamingEagles said:
You always get people voting for weird reasons.BenedictWhite said:
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?TheScreamingEagles said:
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.Sean_F said:
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.Jonathan said:Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
Nowt queer as folk
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
Last year I dealt with a voter who said she wasn't voting Tory because of all those deaths at Stafford, she was convinced it happened under the Tories and it showed you can't trust the Tories with the NHS
I also remember the voter who was voting Lib Dem because he fancied Miriam Gonzales0 -
Casino was saying that he had met lots of Leave pledges who were eager to share their views that we should leave the EU but said they never votedPulpstar said:
I'll ask "Pat the cleaner" if she's going to vote. If she is turnout will be huge, but she won't !kle4 said:Not to go over all Scottish Nat, but I have two lifelong non-voters saying they are definitely voting for Leave tomorrow - one, in their 60s, asked me to go with them to vote. So that has probably made me more inclined to see the vote as being a big deal, a big change, when perhaps that is not representative.
0 -
Ooooooo!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Green party leader on a council in england went over to the tories a few years back, IIRC. Odd stuffMortimer said:
I've witnessed a lot of LD to UKIP switches down here.BenedictWhite said:
FFS! Not the sharpest tool in the box then?TheScreamingEagles said:
We did meet up with a Kipper voter who was voting Remain because he liked the foreign (Indian) doctor who treated him a few months ago.Sean_F said:
The funniest idea (but quite believable) is that the 1% of UKIP voters who support Remain seal the deal. That's 39,000 voters.Jonathan said:Wonder what the consequences would be of a sub 1% margin of victory. If it was really, really close there would have to be some kind of compromise/fudge
Nowt queer as folk
Still I did meet a Lib Dem once, and pushed him saying "but they can't win, so who would you then pick?"
UKIP.
Go figure.
Was one of the reasons why I knew the 2010 LDs crutch wasn't going to happen.0 -
A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.0 -
And Mike's got another holiday coming up in a few months.RobD said:
Ooooooo!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
In my neck of the woods, many of the Vote Leave posters have been "artistically adapted" - the "ea" of "Leave" replaced by a heart, so they now declare we should Vote L❤ve.
Depending on how you think about things, either a rather sweet act of progressivism showing how this is a country that cares more about people than it does about abstract ideas.
Or alternatively, one side's infuriatingly smug attempt at claiming moral and emotional superiority while shutting down debate.
Either way, RIP Jo Cox.0 -
That was a party political broadcast by the Leave partyTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Are you kidding?Jobabob said:
That was a party political broadcast by the Leave partyTheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
Frankly they need to start by actually counting them both in and out. They currently do it by passenger surveys. Can you believe that? It's a joke.EPG said:
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.BenedictWhite said:
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.FrankBooth said:The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
Also, no Conservative voters as a rule don't, they sail in the same ship. It's the metropolitan elites who hate Labour voters.0 -
Don't tempt me, TSE!TheScreamingEagles said:
And Mike's got another holiday coming up in a few months.RobD said:
Ooooooo!TheScreamingEagles said:
Still, even if I do vote Leave, I'm not obsessed, and so my membership of our party should be okay.0 -
I think it's a class thing more than anything. I feel duty bound to vote if I can at every single election, even if I'm still a DK at the polling station.Jobabob said:
Casino was saying that he had met lots of Leave pledges who were eager to share their views that we should leave the EU but said they never votedPulpstar said:
I'll ask "Pat the cleaner" if she's going to vote. If she is turnout will be huge, but she won't !kle4 said:Not to go over all Scottish Nat, but I have two lifelong non-voters saying they are definitely voting for Leave tomorrow - one, in their 60s, asked me to go with them to vote. So that has probably made me more inclined to see the vote as being a big deal, a big change, when perhaps that is not representative.
Though I did miss the last PCC due to my postal vote not turning up. I'll vote after work tommorow to see how many votes are in in my very WWC village.0 -
I'd agree with that. It is going to be close.Richard_Nabavi said:A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.0 -
If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
This is actually like the 2015 election. We were all here waiting for the inevitable and unstoppable Dave Milliband (
)win and then, then that exit poll.
The overall outcome was the opposite to that expected for a long time and on PB no one was going to trust polling again...... Well until the next time anyway.0 -
have we now got your vote?Jobabob said:
That was a party political broadcast by the Leave partyTheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
Peter from Putney's tip on the 1% margin is looking like it might be value.
Might as well make money in the event that we end up with the worst possible result!0 -
Vote Remain, you know it makes sense.RobD said:
Don't tempt me, TSE!TheScreamingEagles said:
And Mike's got another holiday coming up in a few months.RobD said:
Ooooooo!TheScreamingEagles said:
Still, even if I do vote Leave, I'm not obsessed, and so my membership of our party should be okay.0 -
50.5% is my best guess.Richard_Nabavi said:A bit of an over-reaction to these latest polls, I think. As has been the case fairly consistently, phone polls are generally better for Remain, but nothing here alters the overall picture that Remain seem to be ahead only by a smidgen, and it could easily go either way. Whilst I think it likely that the phone polls are more accurate that the online polls, because of the self-select bias in the latter, this is an untested hypothesis and one shouldn't place too much confidence in it.
So, whilst my central forecast remains a narrow Remain victory - perhaps 52% or 53% - I don't think we should be surprised by any result within a few points of that.0 -
Alastair's point is interesting.
Will the pro-business, internationalist, liberal, pro-immigration Europhile centrists and the traditional, nationalist, eurosceptics ever be reconciled?0 -
Not much fun for those of us who regard ourselves as a mixture of the two.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.0 -
Just wondering how we remove people who haven't managed to get a job in 6 months?BenedictWhite said:
Frankly they need to start by actually counting them both in and out. They currently do it by passenger surveys. Can you believe that? It's a joke.EPG said:
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.BenedictWhite said:
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.FrankBooth said:The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
Also, no Conservative voters as a rule don't, they sail in the same ship. It's the metropolitan elites who hate Labour voters.0 -
Depends who on PB you ask. I have bet on Leave, and expect them to win tomorrow, whatever the polls say. As a Remainer, I hope I lose my money.Moses_ said:This is actually like the 2015 election. We were all here waiting for the inevitable and unstoppable Dave Milliband (
)win and then, then that exit poll.
The overall outcome was the opposite to that expected for a long time and on PB no one was going to trust polling again...... Well until the next time anyway.0 -
An excellent summarySean_F said:If Yougov is correct, then:-
1. Cameron and Osborne have lost Conservative voters decisively.
2. England and Wales outside London and Cardiff will vote Leave. 299 out of 329 Conservative seats are located here.
3. Cameron and Osborne will win narrowly on the back of Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and left wing voters.
4. A narrow Remain win is a victory for left wing Britain over right wing Britain. Cameron and Osborne have championed left wing Britain.
5. The pair of them are finished.0 -
There's no reason it has to be somewhere in the middle.GIN1138 said:
Yeah, with the reality somewhere in the middle, i.e REMAIN or LEAVE 1% head and too close to call.AndyJS said:Looks like we've had two outliers tonight, ComRes showing Remain 8% ahead and TNS showing Leave 7% ahead with most likely voters.
0 -
Both parties do.EPG said:
The Conservatives increased net inward migration to 350,000 annually, mostly discretionary non-EU migration, roughly doubling in the last three years. So by that logic, the Conservatives really really hate Labour voters.BenedictWhite said:
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.FrankBooth said:The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
0 -
It will be the job of those like you to knock sense into both camps. Frankly, I don't fancy your chances with either group. Each thinks the other is a danger to society.AndyJS said:
Not much fun for those of us who regard ourselves as a mixture of the two.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.0 -
Maybe we'll go the way 1930's Spain.AndyJS said:
Not much fun for those of us who regard ourselves as a mixture of the two.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's true. There's Little England and there are the Metropolitans. Tomorrow decides who's in charge for the next few years. The losers are not going to be reconciled to defeat - Leavers because they are obsessed on the subject of the EU and Remainers because they think Leave's campaign has been despicable. Neither side looks remotely inclined to accept olive branches.bookseller said:
Amen to that. We're British after all.BenedictWhite said:
We have no idea what is about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Another reason for Leave to be confident.
The postal votes started being returned during peak Leave
However I do hope that we can be friends afterwards and make what ever the electorate give us work.
The chances of a reconstruction look minimal.0 -
Both main parties are going to have to come to terms with big internal problems after the referendum. Labour's London elite are completely disconnected from their WWC support, and the Tories are split down the middle in MPs and mostly for Leave in members and activists. Gonna be a long summer for politics, then we go into the US election!BenedictWhite said:
She was right though. Labour do not like their voters.FrankBooth said:The most striking thing for me was Isabel Hardman's comments about Labour wanting their own voters to stay in bed which had the Guardian fella laughing his head off.
0
