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Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.0
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That ComRes poll is a dagger through the heart of the Brexit camp.0
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Damn it! Looks like Remain has won.0
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The accuracy of the media prism on the ex industrial Labour heartlands in this campaign will be key.0
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FPT:
My anecdata is leaning heavily in one direction, the polls to other. I'm going to back my anecdata due to the fact that there are still significant doubts over the reliability and accuracy of polling. I'm going 52-48 for leave.
Also, someone give Paxman a shotgun, some (ie most) of the audience need to be put down.0 -
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stretford_and_Urmston_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
That Katie Price candidacy in full ☺0 -
Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.0 -
Relieved to see these polls. Don't believe them though. One day more....0
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Are there any doubts about the reliability and accuracy of anecdotes?Chameleon said:FPT:
My anecdata is leaning heavily in one direction, the polls to other. I'm going to back my anecdata due to the fact that there are still significant doubts over the reliability and accuracy of polling. I'm going 52-48 for leave.
Also, someone give Paxman a shotgun, some (ie most) of the audience need to be put down.0 -
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.Y0kel said:Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.0 -
Where has this idea that London is somehow massively different from the rest of the country come from?
Anecdotal, just like many of the other comments on here, but of the dozen or so friends who I've talked to and a similar number of fellow workers, professionals, every single one is voting remain.
That is not because everyone in Manchester is voting remain of course, more that you hang around with people likely to have similar opinions to yourself, you are more likely to have these discussions in the workplace with people of the same mindset.
Anyway, as I say, totally anecdotally, but I would guess that the southern half of Greater Manchester and vast swathes of north Cheshire will be very very heavily Remain tomorrow, probably as much if not more so than London overall.0 -
So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.0
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John Harris of the Guardian will become the new gold standard. He did have it nailed about the SNP landslide #justsayingYellowSubmarine said:The accuracy of the media prism on the ex industrial Labour heartlands in this campaign will be key.
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Campaigns this feels most like is 92 or 05. Muddy. A swing against the status quo, but not enough to change.0
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A load of people are changing their Facebook profile pictures to leave or remain logos. Could they not just eff off?0
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Some pollsters are going to have egg on their faces in 30 hours' time, that much is sure.0
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Big impact of the ComRes poll on Betfair. Leave odds shot out from 4.1 to 4.7 .0
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The first version of the media prism is the right wing one. If you blame the fact your life is **** on " Thatcher " you're accused of being a state dependent cripple blaming others for complex decades long shifts in economics. However the exact same people saying the exact same thing are now being lionised as some sort of archer at a neoAgincourt. Simply because they are blaming immigrants not Thatcher. That aside the prism is assuming their is a ' secret England ' somewhere that's going to vote in rates it's never voted before like Arthur awaking in our hour of need. The problem is indyref told us mobilisation by the dismissed triggers counter countermiobilisation by the affluent.0
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It isn't Remain will most likely win narrowly, probably somewhere between 55-45 and 51-49 as people stick with the status quo as in Scotland for fear of something worse. They will still have the same grudges over immigration etc and when nothing much changes except to see UKIP go up in the polls accordingly! UKIP are the real winners out of a close Remain win, it could be a somewhat pyrrhic victory for the establishment partiesJonathan said:Doesn't feel like 97 or 2010 when change was clearly coming.
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If that happened and I were Dave, I'd be tempted to stay on for 2020 - he'd be politically invincible.david_herdson said:So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.
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FPT:
What are you on about?tyson said:
What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........Mortimer said:
I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.tyson said:
It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.Wanderer said:The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
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4.5 now.
The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight0 -
Thats the point. The polls say one or the other but the smell in the air is that really there are comparatively few full-on Euro enthusiasts.AndyJS said:
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.Y0kel said:Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.0 -
Wow! Will Self said something succinctly?!surbiton said:As Will Self put it succinctly, not all Brexiters are racists, but all racists will be voting for Brexit.
Did he manage to do it without looking/sounding like a self important pompous git as well? (Actually I enjoy his articles by and large, but good lord he bloviates).
He's also wrong, although naturally I only have anecdote - I know two definite racists who say they're voting Remain - they think Boris will be a disaster, the EU will punish us hard and we'll suffer economically, and apparently even the promise of cutting immigration isn't enough to overcome that.0 -
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And UKIP would be the official opposition after 2020 in those circumstances.Stark_Dawning said:
If that happened and I were Dave, I'd be tempted to stay on for 2020 - he'd be politically invincible.david_herdson said:So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.
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FPT
Maybe 14% was right...DanSmith said:ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...
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Britain very rarely votes for change. Maybe it's different this time, but every time I've seen it before its been obvious it was coming.0
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It would actually be kind of hilarious if after all this it's something like 60/40 to Remain, and to have the pollsters put an announcement like 'Why in the f*** do you people keep lying to us in our surveys?'0
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Leave is really drifting now.0
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I still have a feeling about tomorrow. We will see.Mortimer said:FPT:
What are you on about?tyson said:
What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........Mortimer said:
I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.tyson said:
It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.Wanderer said:The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.0 -
4.8 now!0
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4.8 now. I love this market, seems to (over)react to good polls for Remain0
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Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.Mortimer said:FPT:
What are you on about?tyson said:
What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........Mortimer said:
I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.tyson said:
It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.Wanderer said:The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.
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What did you expect,do you think this was a fair fight ?nunu said:Damn it! Looks like Remain has won.
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Country chickening out at the last minute.
What a shame. I thought we were better than that.0 -
Bad Al warming up for Chilcot.0
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Just back home, some Leicester anecdata:Chameleon said:FPT:
My anecdata is leaning heavily in one direction, the polls to other. I'm going to back my anecdata due to the fact that there are still significant doubts over the reliability and accuracy of polling. I'm going 52-48 for leave.
Also, someone give Paxman a shotgun, some (ie most) of the audience need to be put down.
1) Stronger In leafletting commuters at the Railway station. First street campaigning rhat I have seen. Seem to be getting good reception.
2) Keith Vaz has bunting up at his constituency office - for Leicester City FC. Nothing for Labour In on show. I interpret this as opportunistic inactivity. There are no votes to be had.
3) 90 year old farmer, voting Out. Showed me the front page of the DM. Said that the EU want to replace the Queen with a president. I did point out that half a dozen EU countries are also Monarchies. Didn't seem convinced.
4) Elderly posh lady genuinely undecided, but will vote.
5) WWC older couple walking out of clinic. Not going to vote as "what difference does a single vote make?"
Interpretation:
Leave to win Leicester on low turnout.
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My thinking too.SeanT said:This is good for, well, me.
It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.
At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.0 -
Despite some phone Leave wins, I guess it comes down to Online and Phone again, at least to see who is closest. But I'm sticking with if the aggregate shows too close to call, and anecdotal is overwhelming, it's alright to predict the latter will add a few more points to the TCTC figures and swing it. 54-46 Leave0
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Londoners are more sophisticated.ManchesterKurt said:Where has this idea that London is somehow massively different from the rest of the country come from?
Anecdotal, just like many of the other comments on here, but of the dozen or so friends who I've talked to and a similar number of fellow workers, professionals, every single one is voting remain.
That is not because everyone in Manchester is voting remain of course, more that you hang around with people likely to have similar opinions to yourself, you are more likely to have these discussions in the workplace with people of the same mindset.
Anyway, as I say, totally anecdotally, but I would guess that the southern half of Greater Manchester and vast swathes of north Cheshire will be very very heavily Remain tomorrow, probably as much if not more so than London overall.0 -
Probably true.Jonathan said:Campaigns this feels most like is 92 or 05. Muddy. A swing against the status quo, but not enough to change.
Sadly.0 -
When are they releasing that?TheScreamingEagles said:4.5 now.
The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight0 -
The giveaways earlier in the day were:
1) The Opinium Wisdom Index showing far, far more people think Remain will win (46-27)
2) The uptick in Cameron satisfaction among Con voters (MORI) - with vast majority of Con voters now satisfied with him
If most people think Remain will win then it's likely it will - people know that many won't follow through with a Leave vote when it comes to the crunch.
And if the vast majority of Con voters are satisfied with Cameron, are the vast majority also going to vote Leave? Again, looks like they won't follow through when it comes to the crunch.
And now the direction of travel is confirmed with ComRes and YouGov.0 -
Betfair Brexit market will top £50 million in next couple of hours0
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The second version of the media prism is the Paul Mason/John Harris axis. They've more genuine concern for the ex industrial Labour heartlands and have accurately diagnosed why the metropolitan liberal left ignores hates these people. I'm just sceptical it's not too heavily tinged with faux 1945 nostalgia and a form of self loathing. As if Mason and Harris aren't paid up members of the urban media elite in every other way.0
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I get what you are saying and I agree the feel is not like 1979 or 1997 or 2010. But, then, this isn't a general election. What does "change" feel like for a referendum? I don't have any experience of that.Jonathan said:Britain very rarely votes for change. Maybe it's different this time, but every time I've seen it before its been obvious it was coming.
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Tomorrow morningFrancisUrquhart said:
When are they releasing that?TheScreamingEagles said:4.5 now.
The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight0 -
Comres basics:
Labour 2015 voters : 256
Tory 2015 voters : 233
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So you're saying that polls and markets were wrong? Thought so, thanks.tyson said:
Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.Mortimer said:FPT:
What are you on about?tyson said:
What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........Mortimer said:
I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.tyson said:
It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.Wanderer said:The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.0 -
Well said.AndyJS said:
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.Y0kel said:Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.0 -
I hate this Toby Young !0
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What time is it out?TheScreamingEagles said:4.5 now.
The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight
Edit: Already answered below.0 -
Surprised that is allowed to release a poll while voting is taking place. In the same way as the media aren't allowed to really say anything other than there is a vote on.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tomorrow morningFrancisUrquhart said:
When are they releasing that?TheScreamingEagles said:4.5 now.
The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight0 -
And 10% of that total has been today, yet the price has barely moved!MarkSenior said:Betfair Brexit market will top £50 million in next couple of hours
http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum?time=1#i0 -
My delicate sensibilities would prevent me yelling Traitor at anyone, and sadly I do not yet have any property let alone in London, but otherwise I'm in the same boat - I have the consistency of a wet biscuit, I'm anxious, I dislike many things about the VoteLeave campaign and that puts great pressure on my fundamental dislike of the EU and belief it will get no better - but a comfortable Remain win, well, consequence free to vote Leave then, phew!SeanT said:This is good for, well, me.
It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.
At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.0 -
Will Self enjoys labelling his political opponents as racists.kle4 said:
Wow! Will Self said something succinctly?!surbiton said:As Will Self put it succinctly, not all Brexiters are racists, but all racists will be voting for Brexit.
Did he manage to do it without looking/sounding like a self important pompous git as well? (Actually I enjoy his articles by and large, but good lord he bloviates).
He's also wrong, although naturally I only have anecdote - I know two definite racists who say they're voting Remain - they think Boris will be a disaster, the EU will punish us hard and we'll suffer economically, and apparently even the promise of cutting immigration isn't enough to overcome that.0 -
You don't make that point when ICM finds similar findings but has Leave ahead.chestnut said:Comres basics:
Labour 2015 voters : 256
Tory 2015 voters : 233
Curious.0 -
@faisalislam: My dad is convinced that all the home nations footballing success is going to help Cameron...
Britain Stronger in Europe !!!!
(Does not include Scotland...)0 -
This was the only chance for Britain to be free,we are finished as a free democratic nation.Casino_Royale said:Country chickening out at the last minute.
What a shame. I thought we were better than that.
Superstate on way.0 -
My final projection - Remain 52% Leave 48%
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I hope I'm wrong but it feels like 58-42 to Remain to me.kle4 said:Despite some phone Leave wins, I guess it comes down to Online and Phone again, at least to see who is closest. But I'm sticking with if the aggregate shows too close to call, and anecdotal is overwhelming, it's alright to predict the latter will add a few more points to the TCTC figures and swing it. 54-46 Leave
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The status quo is magnetic it seems - past performance can be a guide to the future.Casino_Royale said:Country chickening out at the last minute.
What a shame. I thought we were better than that.
BUT
it's not banked yet.. nor my winnings.0 -
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They do it at general elections.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprised that is allowed to release a poll while voting is taking place. In the same way as the media aren't allowed to really say anything other than there is a vote on.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tomorrow morningFrancisUrquhart said:
When are they releasing that?TheScreamingEagles said:4.5 now.
The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight
You're allowed to publish polls which show how people intend to vote.
You're not allowed to publish polls showing how people HAVE voted0 -
Heseltine needs to be put out to pasture.0
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And Newsnight focusing on Boris and Cameron's history... stupid.0
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Killed it stone dead?SeanT said:On the upside, this is the end of Scottish Nationalism, as a serious force for independence.
Britain will endure.0 -
Exactly. You fought the establishment and guess what - the establishment won. That's how Britain works.Tykejohnno said:
What did you expect,do you think this was a fair fight ?nunu said:Damn it! Looks like Remain has won.
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Thunderstorm hitting South London soon. Should pass over quickly but more to come overnight and tomorrow...0
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A little known fact is the BBC had a sniper on duty in case Dimbleby fluffed and accidentally started to reveal the contents of the exit poll...TheScreamingEagles said:
They do it at general elections.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprised that is allowed to release a poll while voting is taking place. In the same way as the media aren't allowed to really say anything other than there is a vote on.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tomorrow morningFrancisUrquhart said:
When are they releasing that?TheScreamingEagles said:4.5 now.
The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight
You're allowed to publish polls which show how people intend to vote.
You're not allowed to publish polls showing how people HAVE voted
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A colleague of mine said to me this morning; 'This referendum's brought out all the little Englanders, there are flags everywhere'!Scott_P said:@faisalislam: My dad is convinced that all the home nations footballing success is going to help Cameron...
Britain Stronger in Europe !!!!
(Does not include Scotland...)0 -
Right direction, wrong magnitude is what I think tyson is saying.Mortimer said:
So you're saying that polls and markets were wrong? Thought so, thanks.tyson said:
Do I have to spell this out....despite the average of polls in 2015 calling Labour the largest party, the betting markets called the Tories as the largest.Mortimer said:FPT:
What are you on about?tyson said:
What odds did you get on Labour largest party 2015? Just remind me. Or 1992 for that matter. Next........Mortimer said:
I got better odds on Tory maj on the eve of the poll in 2015 than I've just got on Remain.tyson said:
It was in 2015- but the betting markets called the Tories. Follow the cash.Wanderer said:The overall picture from polling is that it's still on a knife-edge.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
Tory majority bet WON in 2015. Despite the betting markets not calling it.
Very few people called a Tory majority....but to be clear the betting markets were much closer to a Tory majority than the polls.
It is not just the betting markets, the currency and stockmarkets point that way too.0 -
Faisal is a fully paid up member of BSE.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: My dad is convinced that all the home nations footballing success is going to help Cameron...
Britain Stronger in Europe !!!!
(Does not include Scotland...)0 -
The reluctant 'it's a bit crap but it's probably better than the alternative' is more 1992 or 2005.Wanderer said:
I get what you are saying and I agree the feel is not like 1979 or 1997 or 2010. But, then, this isn't a general election. What does "change" feel like for a referendum? I don't have any experience of that.Jonathan said:Britain very rarely votes for change. Maybe it's different this time, but every time I've seen it before its been obvious it was coming.
"Change" in a referendum probably feels like the Scottish Devolution vote in 1998, when it was more confirmation of a national mood already in place. It would be pretty unusual anywhere for any change referendum to pass with so much of the political establishment on the other side.0 -
When was the fieldwork for the phone polls? Post Jo Cox? Shy Leavers?
Clutching at straws?
This waiting is awful. There's still hope, but I'm more-or-less expecting to feel gutted by Friday morning.0 -
Yep, I was saying that weeks back.CornishBlue said:
Exactly. You fought the establishment and guess what - the establishment won. That's how Britain works.Tykejohnno said:
What did you expect,do you think this was a fair fight ?nunu said:Damn it! Looks like Remain has won.
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Great statement though. Every 28 country is a democracy. Many were not 50 years ago.Casino_Royale said:Heseltine needs to be put out to pasture.
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Incidentally I haven't made a final decision how to vote yet. Everyone I know is voting Remain which is difficult to ignore completely.PlatoSaid said:
Well said.AndyJS said:
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.Y0kel said:Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.0 -
The old will be for leave though, in Scotland they were for Remain and they turnout more than the young. The middle classes also turnout more and are for Remain but I expect the high older voter turnout to make the final result a shade nearer 50%-50% than 55%-45% though Remain should windavid_herdson said:So the phone/online gap is back - or perhaps just more obvious. At the 2015 GE, the phone polls understated the Tory lead while the online ones *really* understated it. If - and it's a big if - it's anything similar, then Remain would be on for about a 55-45 win.
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He wouldn't have blown his top would he - 60-40 is much more likely - in which case this match is going into extra time.brokenwheel said:FPT
Maybe 14% was right...DanSmith said:ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...
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He had a good point, well made. The EU has cemented parliamentary democracy across most of the continent.Casino_Royale said:Heseltine needs to be put out to pasture.
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It's a bit silly reading so much into polls full stop.AndyJS said:
It's a bit silly reading so much into these last two polls just because they were the last two to be published. We could have had Opinium and TNS tonight and YouGov and ComRes earlier.Y0kel said:Remain was always favourite but you get the feeling the general public appetite for the EU is about as high as a 2p coin is deep.
By the way, Wales, we'll see you in Paris this weekend and we are likely to win.
Unless you've forgotten May 2015.0 -
It's my consolation too. Definitely the high moral ground.RobD said:
My thinking too.SeanT said:This is good for, well, me.
It means I can follow my heart and vote LEAVE, safe in the knowledge that it won't harm my personal finances (via London property etc), and the rest of the country will go REMAIN.
At the same time, I will then have the moral high ground thereafter, and be fully entitled to hurl appalling abuse and accusations of *traitor!!* at anyone who voted REMAIN, when the EU decides to come for the rest of our sovereignty - which, be assured, they will. They really really will.0 -
Indeed. But the British public are the same, and they have to be seriously moved to make a change. Maybe it will be different. But the muddyness that has characterised the campaign is not a positive sign for Leavers.Wanderer said:
I get what you are saying and I agree the feel is not like 1979 or 1997 or 2010. But, then, this isn't a general election. What does "change" feel like for a referendum? I don't have any experience of that.Jonathan said:Britain very rarely votes for change. Maybe it's different this time, but every time I've seen it before its been obvious it was coming.
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Polls all over the place. At the GE polls were well out. The pollsters have next to no baseline for this referendum. At the risk of looking stupid I think Leave will nick this.0
