politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.

I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.

Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.

From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.

Did people want her to bring her puppy on?

Edit: and that is not code for something.

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

How the fuck did Nick lose to Soubry. She's awful.

I'd have voted for Nick, if I lived in Broxtowe. Or UKIP. I'd rather stick needles in my eyes than vote for Soubry.

I lost in 2010 mainly because of Green intervention (the Green candidate took twice as many votes as AS's 389 majority, nearly all from Labour). In 2015, the Green candidate did even better, though only half the Tory majority this time.

Then he joined the Labour Party. One of life's little ironies!

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?

1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.

2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.

3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.

Of course, I may be totally wrong.

Britain of course has quiet revolutions not violent ones, I hope we're about to set off on another one tomorrow.

It would fit with history. It would demonstrate the cyclical cogs turning again, for the same reasons.

NickPalmer said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

How the fuck did Nick lose to Soubry. She's awful.

I'd have voted for Nick, if I lived in Broxtowe. Or UKIP. I'd rather stick needles in my eyes than vote for Soubry.

I lost in 2010 mainly because of Green intervention (the Green candidate took twice as many votes as AS's 389 majority, nearly all from Labour). In 2015, the Green candidate did even better, though only half the Tory majority this time.

Then he joined the Labour Party. One of life's little ironies!

Bloody splitters!!!

Gallowgate said:

My predictions for Tyne and Wear and surrounding areas based upon feelings and perceived local attitudes:

Leave:

Sunderland
North Tyneside
South Tyneside
County Durham
Northumberland

Remain:

Newcastle upon Tyne
Gateshead

Darlington -Remain.

NickPalmer said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

How the fuck did Nick lose to Soubry. She's awful.

I'd have voted for Nick, if I lived in Broxtowe. Or UKIP. I'd rather stick needles in my eyes than vote for Soubry.

I lost in 2010 mainly because of Green intervention (the Green candidate took twice as many votes as AS's 389 majority, nearly all from Labour). In 2015, the Green candidate did even better, though only half the Tory majority this time.

Then he joined the Labour Party.

Locally to you? That must have been awkward.

NickPalmer said:

Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.

Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.

BUT

The feed back is London is a real worry.
London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.

It might be paranoia
It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent

But that is the feedback.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.

I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.

Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.

I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.

Darn - you're going to beat me to it!

Hanging up your boots if we Leave? Sorry to hear that TSE. You're too good to lose.

Ireland!

Ohhhhhhhh mooros Ireland just had golden opportunity...

By the yell I've just heard I must have some Irish neighbours!

The betting markets are not moving in the slightest. So if there was indeed a leak, it was evidently not terribly exciting either one way or the other.

PlatoSaid said:

Theo is spanking Chuka

I thought you turned it off?

Go Ireland.

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

Question for Leave Tories on here - would you stay in the party if Soubry became leader?

NO!

Repulsive old sow. "I'm lecturing people"....

kle4 said:

weejonnie said:

Paristonda said:

John_M said:

PlatoSaid said:

Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.

“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”

. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.

Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .

I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)

Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?

if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.

I just struggle with the idea the traditional Labour vote could be anything other than Leave, to be honest. It feels like even more for them than others that the EU is something done to them rather than for them, the EU is all about an international elite that looks down on 'ppoulist contagion', if people want to kick elites, why wouldn't you kick the EU?

Because Tory governments kick them more.

Ireland go go go

BenedictWhite said:

TOPPING said:

I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.

Well Tories couldn't actually campaign for Nick in Broxtowe however not all canvassing for the Conservative candidate needs to be completely helpful and on message....Just sayin'

This really is or could be (hyperbole alert, and I'm sober) a realignment of British politics.

Old Lab & Old Cons and then some newfangled kind of centrist grouping.

nunu said:

Gallowgate said:

My predictions for Tyne and Wear and surrounding areas based upon feelings and perceived local attitudes:

Leave:

Sunderland
North Tyneside
South Tyneside
County Durham
Northumberland

Remain:

Newcastle upon Tyne
Gateshead

Darlington -Remain.

Poolies - Leave

Boro, Stockton - Remain

Redcar - pass

Nigel Smith (chair of Scottish devo-yes in 1997, apparently) predicts Leave win on a low turnout http://reaction.life/brexit-will-win/

peter_from_putney said:

The betting markets are not moving in the slightest. So if there was indeed a leak, it was evidently not terribly exciting either one way or the other.

The central expected outcome from the betting markets has been 52.1%. So probably all in the price, betting-wise.

SandyRentool said:

nunu said:

Gallowgate said:

My predictions for Tyne and Wear and surrounding areas based upon feelings and perceived local attitudes:

Leave:

Sunderland
North Tyneside
South Tyneside
County Durham
Northumberland

Remain:

Newcastle upon Tyne
Gateshead

Darlington -Remain.

Redcar - pass

Solidly Labour but has been known to kick the elites when angered - even voted LD in 2010 when the Steel plan was mothballed the first time. I could see them going Leave in a big way.

Wonder how England would have done if they had appointed Martin o Neil?

nunu said:

Gallowgate said:

My predictions for Tyne and Wear and surrounding areas based upon feelings and perceived local attitudes:

Leave:

Sunderland
North Tyneside
South Tyneside
County Durham
Northumberland

Remain:

Newcastle upon Tyne
Gateshead

Darlington -Remain.

My figures have just Newcastle voting Remain at 56% if it's 50/50 in England.

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.

I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.

Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.

From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.

Did people want her to bring her puppy on?

Edit: and that is not code for something.

She really was bad. Trust me

Chuka Umunna much better.

Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.

Politics, eh?

He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.

chrisoxon said:

kle4 said:

RepublicanTory said:

NickPalmer said:

Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.

Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.

BUT

The feed back is London is a real worry.
London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.

It might be paranoia
It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent

But that is the feedback.

London is vastly outnumbered by the rest of England, and isn't Wales still in play?

London GE 2015
Labour 43.7% 45 Seats
Conservative 34.9% 27 Seats

...and yet no PM Miliband!

London will solidly vote for remain, of that I have no doubt, but is just 11.7% of the total electorate.

Add in Scotland and NI too....

HYUFD said:

chrisoxon said:

kle4 said:

RepublicanTory said:

NickPalmer said:

Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.

Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.

BUT

The feed back is London is a real worry.
London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.

It might be paranoia
It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent

But that is the feedback.

London is vastly outnumbered by the rest of England, and isn't Wales still in play?

London GE 2015
Labour 43.7% 45 Seats
Conservative 34.9% 27 Seats

...and yet no PM Miliband!

London will solidly vote for remain, of that I have no doubt, but is just 11.7% of the total electorate.

Add in Scotland and NI too....

May not be as Remain heavy as thought at the start either!

MonikerDiCanio said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From Remain's pollster

https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/745714095953969152

Only because the Tories led most of the final polls and won undecideds and turned out more of their supporters than Labour

Distaste for Salmond was the key. I hope he can work his magic again.

Could it be Farage this time? Though both are popular with their base

A couple of thoughts about the EEA (Norway single market) option as I suspect that will be the consensus choice following a Leave victory. Remainers will go for it as the best of the options still on the table and it will also get the vote of cautious Leavers who don't want more disruption than necessary. It has the advantage of being "off the shelf", you know what you get, so you don't spend two years negotiating a deal that may amount to much. The EU is quite likely to agree to the UK's membership on the usual "pretend and extend" basis. It saves them having to negotiate something different and shortens their own period of uncertainty.

So win/win all round? Not at all. The EEA comes with all the features people object to about the EU, while adding some very serious defects of its own. The EEA comes with the same freedom of movement requirement as the EU (no change to immigration policies), decisions are made remotely in Brussels, you are subject to an extra-territorial court (equivalent to the ECJ) and you have to pay fees to play.

The big extra defect is that non EU members of the EEA no input into the policies they must implement. A vital principle of any pooled sovereignty arrangement (EU, NATO, possibly the UK itself) is that you take on obligations in exchange for influencing common policy. You may decide the exchange is a good or a bad one, but there is always a deal. That principle is entirely missing from the EEA. There is no deal.

On principle, if you have voted Leave to be masters of our own ship (which in my view is the only good reason to vote Leave - otherwise it's not worth the grief) you will find you have much less influence under the EEA than in the EU. It's a democratic issue, demonstrated by Norway's experience. EEA-related policy is simply not discussed in parliament or by government, unless it's about the mechanics of implementation. Why discuss something you have no influence over , if you might end up disagreeing with it? And it's a practical issue. If there's something you really hate as an EU member you can normally horsetrade it away. Not so the EEA. If we get told to implement something we heartily dislike and which we had no influence over, are we going to just say, Fine, you decide?

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/PXEducation/status/745715850926301184

That is hilarious!

Yes, the publicity stunt to end all publicity stunts!

Sheila Hancock telling us that the Germans are going to bomb us if we leave.

BenedictWhite said:

TOPPING said:

BenedictWhite said:

TOPPING said:

I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.

Well Tories couldn't actually campaign for Nick in Broxtowe however not all canvassing for the Conservative candidate needs to be completely helpful and on message....Just sayin'

This really is or could be (hyperbole alert, and I'm sober) a realignment of British politics.

Old Lab & Old Cons and then some newfangled kind of centrist grouping.

Who are you calling old?

So ComRes incoming at 10 yeah?

tlg86 said:

Sheila Hancock telling us that the Germans are going to bomb us if we leave.

I'm sure all our Trident subs will be out on standby tomorrow evening.... hovering around the coastline of Europe

Wales v NI?

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

RepublicanTory said:

NickPalmer said:

Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.

Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.

BUT

The feed back is London is a real worry.
London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.

It might be paranoia
It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent

But that is the feedback.

Good to know, and a salutary balance for the LEAVE optimism

I too see London swinging massively REMAIN, the property price thing has really hit home. Even renters will go REMAIN, as so many of them depend on the booming London economy to hang on in there.

Equally, I think LEAVE areas will be more LEAVE than we expect.

The nation is polarising.

Look at my figures: if England is 50/50, London is 66% Remain.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

Achievable, but yikes, they really do need to thrash Leave in their strongholds, don't they?

Interesting, you think if its 50/50 Wiltshire will only be 52.21% leave? I'm surprised

welshowl said:

Wales v NI?

Yep

RepublicanTory said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Have volunteered to do knocking up for Leave tomorrow evening.Apparently although no local canvass return info there is quite a sophisticated computer with relevant information sufficient to make knocking up worthwhile. Interested to hear what others are doing.

The same-doing door knocking

I feared the organisation would be a UKIP Cluster F***
Actually It really is quite good

Enough to get us over the line??...dont know

But if you had told me 6 weeks ago this is what I would have to work with the night before the Vote with the polls this close

Good luck

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

RepublicanTory said:

NickPalmer said:

Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.

Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.

BUT

The feed back is London is a real worry.
London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.

It might be paranoia
It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent

But that is the feedback.

Good to know, and a salutary balance for the LEAVE optimism

I too see London swinging massively REMAIN, the property price thing has really hit home. Even renters will go REMAIN, as so many of them depend on the booming London economy to hang on in there.

Equally, I think LEAVE areas will be more LEAVE than we expect.

The nation is polarising.

Look at my figures: if England is 50/50, London is 66% Remain.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

I'd estimate 60/40 if England was 50/50. 58/42 if the UK was.

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Gallowgate said:

My predictions for Tyne and Wear and surrounding areas based upon feelings and perceived local attitudes:

Leave:

Sunderland
North Tyneside
South Tyneside
County Durham
Northumberland

Remain:

Newcastle upon Tyne
Gateshead

Darlington -Remain.

My figures have just Newcastle voting Remain at 56% if it's 50/50 in England.

That sounds about right. So, Remain probably needs to be at 55% for the UK to go that way.

BenedictWhite said:

TOPPING said:

BenedictWhite said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.

I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.

Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.

From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.

Did people want her to bring her puppy on?

Edit: and that is not code for something.

She really was bad. Trust me

Chuka Umunna much better.

Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.

Politics, eh?

He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.

The Remain line is that it is the price of entry to the single market. Not expected to work for a significant number of people (nor any confirmed Leaver) but has the merit of being the case.

Yes but is it a price his electorate happy with the bargain?

Well of course that is exactly what we will find out tomorrow. I like the line (and it took some time for it to emerge) because it is bullshit-free and as you say, gives the electorate a clear choice.

Better than Boris and Leadsom with their 60% of our laws bollocks they are still pushing.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

So So BBC

Chris Cook ‏@xtophercook · 12m12 minutes ago
We are a top, top, top footballing archipelago. #coybig

Does feel unfair, the British get at most four chances One day there'll be an all-UK semi-final.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.

I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.

Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.

I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.

Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!

I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning

But no AV thread?

I'm toying with an AV thread.

What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.

a) Remain

b) Leave

c) EEA Option

Why might you not Canvass again??

Down in London today and tomorrow. Out for a drink with a Labour Remain friend tonight. He's at Sussex Way in North Islington at 7.00 am tomorrow for a full day of action. Bizarrely confident. Very surprised at my pessimism.

@Andrew_ComRes: 8-pt #Remain lead (54:46) in final ComRes #EURef poll for @DailyMailUK and @itvnews

ComRes ‏@ComResPolls 9s10 seconds ago
8point #Remain lead over #Leave (54% to 46%) in final UK wide poll of #EUref campaign for @itvnews & @DailyMailUK

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.

I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.

Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.

I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.

Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!

I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning

But no AV thread?

I'm toying with an AV thread.

What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.

a) Remain

b) Leave

c) EEA Option

Why might you not Canvass again??

Victim of the victorious Leaver purging squads.

I agree the accuracy of the media prism on the ex industrial Labour heartlands is the key to this.