Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning
But no AV thread?
What would the result have been if the options under AV had been: A) Leave b) Remain C) Negotiate Associate Membership
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've bought some Red Bull too - just in case I start seriously flagging or getting too plonked and sleepy. I fell asleep during 0200-0500 in GE2010 and kicked myself.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning
But no AV thread?
I'm toying with an AV thread.
What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.
a) Remain
b) Leave
c) EEA Option
Post it while OGH isn't watching..... we won't tell
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
I think the Labour heartlands are going to have a low turnout, I just can't imagine people in Merseyside, Tyneside, the former Yorkshire coalmining areas and the South Wales valleys being very pro-EU. It was official Labour party policy to leave the EU as recently as 1983, they might not vote Leave because leavers are now mainly Tories and UKIPers but I can't see them being mad about Remain either.
The result of the Ireland game will have more impact on the result than the C4 debate. If Ireland go out, Nationalists depressed, less likely to feel like voting tomorrow.
There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.
I think that's the idea of strike action isn't it? Anyway, I think quite a few people will be more concerned about getting to and from work than with the EUref.
Still, I don't think it's cricket to have a strike which may affect people's ability to exercise their democratic right.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.
I just struggle with the idea the traditional Labour vote could be anything other than Leave, to be honest. It feels like even more for them than others that the EU is something done to them rather than for them, the EU is all about an international elite that looks down on 'ppoulist contagion', if people want to kick elites, why wouldn't you kick the EU?
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
After Sunderland and Wandsworth
WE WILL KNOW !
Not sure. I think the results there will be pretty much in line with the 50/50 values.
As the PB consensus mostly agrees (?) Leave needed to be 10% ahead in the polls to win. The momentum is in our favour, but we're not there. Remain knew the momentum was with Leave, so despicably and utterly cynically used a brutal murder to derail the campaign for the required amount of time.
To be brutally honest, I think we would have done better to have braved the screams of outrage and started reforming the welfare system on a contributory basis. We've taken a local issue and turned it into a European one.
I'd have voted for an associate membership, as long as that meant the ECJ was not above our supreme court.
There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.
I think that's the idea of strike action isn't it? Anyway, I think quite a few people will be more concerned about getting to and from work than with the EUref.
Still, I don't think it's cricket to have a strike which may affect people's ability to exercise their democratic right.
There can't be many folk who have to catch a train to reach their Polling Place.
As the PB consensus mostly agrees (?) Leave needed to be 10% ahead in the polls to win. The momentum is in our favour, but we're not there. Remain knew the momentum was with Leave, so despicably and utterly cynically used a brutal murder to derail the campaign for the required amount of time.
I thought the consensus was Leave needed to be 5 or so ahead to win (though someone else posted a graph the other day that said Remain needed to be so far ahead to win).
Personally I think the consensus is wrong, and Leave can be a little behind and win.
I'm oddly serene as well. That's possibly because the referendum is win-win for me.
My big fear was a massive REMAIN win - 60/40 or worse - and Britain doomed to vassalage in a newly-confident Euro-empire. UGH. All those gloating Europhiles in the Guardian. UGH!!!! Polly Toynbee and Michael Heseltine chortling!! UGH UGH UGH
That outcome is now essentially impossible, and for me we two three other outcomes, which all have their advantages.
Narrow REMAIN means I do well financially - London surges, property prices go back up, and the EU havs been served notice.
Narrow LEAVE and we quit the EU but enter the EEA/EFTA. The hit to the economy will be small. And we will be out the EU. And everyone on the Guardian will cry for a month. Yay.
I discount a Big LEAVE. Most unlikely.
If the out option was EEA/EFTA I would also be relaxed about it. Indeed, if that had been pre-negotiated I might vote for it. But I think that the outcome of Leave is far less predictable. There's going to be a lot of opposition to keeping free movement.
More likely than EEA/EFTA is that despite voting Leave we never will. A new offer plus six-12 months of economic dodginess will seal the deal.
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?
It's the stuff of direct democracy. What it has done for me, more than anything, is bring home to me what a good idea representative democracy is.
No, because what has happened over the years is that the political classes have not bothered to engage with the voters, see for example this quote from a beeb man on Guido:
David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…
“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”
The reality is that this engages people. That is important.
It has engaged people and I agree that's a good thing. The audience last night was something remarkable in its way. But what people have been engaged by is utter garbage from the campaigns. Remain or leave, we can't say that people have made a well-informed decision.
I would be happy if we never have another referendum. I wouldn't like to see Britain become like California, holding plebiscites for fun.
Whilst I agree that the bullshit dial has been turned up to 15 and been broken off, do trust the electorate. They are much more mature than the political classes.
Issue Time Wed 22 Jun 2016: 20:00 BST New/Updated Valid From Wed 22 Jun 2016 : 19:00 BST(Currently Active) Valid Until Fri 24 Jun 2016 : 12:00 BST (39hrs remaining)
Severe Weather Warning for Thunderstorms / Heavy Rain / Hail / Severe Wind Gusts
A plume of unstable, moist air moves Northeast from France later this evening and overnight.
We are expecting thunderstorms to develop across France and the Channel late this evening, however the primary risk comes overnight and into the early hours when organised multi-cell structures will approach the South and Southeast coast of England.
This is similar to their earlier warning, but the area most likely to be most affected has extended westwards along the southern English coast to now take in Dorset.
There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.
I think that's the idea of strike action isn't it? Anyway, I think quite a few people will be more concerned about getting to and from work than with the EUref.
Still, I don't think it's cricket to have a strike which may affect people's ability to exercise their democratic right.
There can't be many folk who have to catch a train to reach their Polling Place.
No, but if they can't get from work->home in time....
And even if it is one person being affected, it's still wrong.
As the PB consensus mostly agrees (?) Leave needed to be 10% ahead in the polls to win. The momentum is in our favour, but we're not there. Remain knew the momentum was with Leave, so despicably and utterly cynically used a brutal murder to derail the campaign for the required amount of time.
I drew up a list who would be blamed by leavers if they lose, didn't put that one in.... takes all sorts.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
I made it 51 - others made it 55. The unknown factor is the Nissan plant in Washington.
Sunderland has quite a lot of traditional Labour - The polling was (in 2015)
Labour 50% UKIP.....24% Tories.. 20% LibDems 6%
LEAVE = 24% + 30% X 50% + 60% X 20% = 51%
The good UKIP score being held back by the poor labour score. Any more than this and Leave look good - if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.
I think that's optimistic. The Labour vote that is most likely to vote UKIP is the WWC one, while the metropolitan middle class one will vote Remain.
In other words, I'd expect a 50% Leave vote from Sunderland Labour, maybe more.
As the PB consensus mostly agrees (?) Leave needed to be 10% ahead in the polls to win. The momentum is in our favour, but we're not there. Remain knew the momentum was with Leave, so despicably and utterly cynically used a brutal murder to derail the campaign for the required amount of time.
I drew up a list who would be blamed by leavers if they lose, didn't put that one in.... takes all sorts.
You didn't put in the Remain campaign? It's a view.
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
I made it 51 - others made it 55. The unknown factor is the Nissan plant in Washington.
Sunderland has quite a lot of traditional Labour - The polling was (in 2015)
Labour 50% UKIP.....24% Tories.. 20% LibDems 6%
LEAVE = 24% + 30% X 50% + 60% X 20% = 51%
The good UKIP score being held back by the poor labour score. Any more than this and Leave look good - if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.
I think that's optimistic. The Labour vote that is most likely to vote UKIP is the WWC one, while the metropolitan middle class one will vote Remain.
In other words, I'd expect a 50% Leave vote from Sunderland Labour, maybe more.
How much of that portion of the Labour vote is actually now in the UKIP column though?
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
...
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
Britain of course has quiet revolutions not violent ones, I hope we're about to set off on another one tomorrow.
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU. .
Agreed. The polls might be bollocks, of course, but the mood music suggests they are at least right it is close, or even underestimating things for Leave. Nothing but betting supports the alternate idea.
Whether you're a nervous Trot, a risk averse Tory, or simply a "don't know, won't go" type, as a Eurosceptic Remainer you'll find yourself alienating all your Brexit buddies and loathing your new Remain friends.
Whether or not your reluctance will give way to what you have wished for all your political life on Thursday remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure - the next few months are not going to be any easier...
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
Interesting. Valuable insight, ta. What is your track record btw? Serious question, did you call the GE or indyref, right?
Few did, of course.
I thought In would win the Sindy by 4% or so. I thought the Tories would win 285-290 seats.
Ch4 have managed to get a pretty decent celebrity audience. This is the kind of show that they should just let run until early in the morning like After Dark. We might actually get some interesting discussion after a few hours and everyone lets their guard down.
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
Difficult to say.
I was out leafleting and there was a chap with his pickup and another dropping by. I gave a leaflet to the drop by who then went off on one about why he didn't vote so I carried on my way.
The argument seemed to be a bit heated and by the time I got back round drop by had gone and I appeared to be welcome.
The voters will speak tomorrow. There is something in the air.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
That's a massive call.
It's also a massive volte face! Let's just hope Sean F isn't forced to change his mind as the result of a dismal poll for LEAVE in less than half an hour's time.
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
...
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
You are Ed Milliband and I claim my £5.
That's a terrible insult. Ban this man immediately!
Comments
A) Leave
b) Remain
C) Negotiate Associate Membership
It was official Labour party policy to leave the EU as recently as 1983, they might not vote Leave because leavers are now mainly Tories and UKIPers but I can't see them being mad about Remain either.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/22/which-remainer-are-you/
Hannan on now.
I'd have voted for an associate membership, as long as that meant the ECJ was not above our supreme court.
Personally I think the consensus is wrong, and Leave can be a little behind and win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xH9BNx3SY0g
Surprised it wasn't more than that. BBC 1 prime time and all that.
Issue Time
Wed 22 Jun 2016: 20:00 BST New/Updated
Valid From
Wed 22 Jun 2016 : 19:00 BST(Currently Active)
Valid Until
Fri 24 Jun 2016 : 12:00 BST (39hrs remaining)
Severe Weather Warning for Thunderstorms / Heavy Rain / Hail / Severe Wind Gusts
A plume of unstable, moist air moves Northeast from France later this evening and overnight.
We are expecting thunderstorms to develop across France and the Channel late this evening, however the primary risk comes overnight and into the early hours when organised multi-cell structures will approach the South and Southeast coast of England.
This is similar to their earlier warning, but the area most likely to be most affected has extended westwards along the southern English coast to now take in Dorset.
And even if it is one person being affected, it's still wrong.
Really flawed test.
In other words, I'd expect a 50% Leave vote from Sunderland Labour, maybe more.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-referendum-too-many-part-time-europeans-are-diluting-an-ever-closer-union-claims-jean-claude-a7095966.html
I was a eurosceptic remainer too.
She's fab.
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
This was before she came out for Remain. She's a female Soames. Boorish.
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/745714095953969152
Hannan doing very well as expected.
What a bizarre greasy looking tan.
Actually I agree with him though - I don't think it's that close either. Agreed. The polls might be bollocks, of course, but the mood music suggests they are at least right it is close, or even underestimating things for Leave. Nothing but betting supports the alternate idea.
Whether or not your reluctance will give way to what you have wished for all your political life on Thursday remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure - the next few months are not going to be any easier...
Leave:
Sunderland
North Tyneside
South Tyneside
County Durham
Northumberland
Remain:
Newcastle upon Tyne
Gateshead
I was out leafleting and there was a chap with his pickup and another dropping by. I gave a leaflet to the drop by who then went off on one about why he didn't vote so I carried on my way.
The argument seemed to be a bit heated and by the time I got back round drop by had gone and I appeared to be welcome.
The voters will speak tomorrow. There is something in the air.
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/745716056564457472