I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
Leave can win but it would only be by 51/49 I think.
How the fuck did Nick lose to Soubry. She's awful.
I'd have voted for Nick, if I lived in Broxtowe. Or UKIP. I'd rather stick needles in my eyes than vote for Soubry.
I lost in 2010 mainly because of Green intervention (the Green candidate took twice as many votes as AS's 389 majority, nearly all from Labour). In 2015, the Green candidate did even better, though only half the Tory majority this time.
Then he joined the Labour Party. One of life's little ironies!
After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
Britain of course has quiet revolutions not violent ones, I hope we're about to set off on another one tomorrow.
It would fit with history. It would demonstrate the cyclical cogs turning again, for the same reasons.
How the fuck did Nick lose to Soubry. She's awful.
I'd have voted for Nick, if I lived in Broxtowe. Or UKIP. I'd rather stick needles in my eyes than vote for Soubry.
I lost in 2010 mainly because of Green intervention (the Green candidate took twice as many votes as AS's 389 majority, nearly all from Labour). In 2015, the Green candidate did even better, though only half the Tory majority this time.
Then he joined the Labour Party. One of life's little ironies!
I think we should consult Punxsutawney Phil first thing tomorrow. If he retreats back to his burrow, it's another forty years of being crushed under Brussels' bootéd heel.
How the fuck did Nick lose to Soubry. She's awful.
I'd have voted for Nick, if I lived in Broxtowe. Or UKIP. I'd rather stick needles in my eyes than vote for Soubry.
I lost in 2010 mainly because of Green intervention (the Green candidate took twice as many votes as AS's 389 majority, nearly all from Labour). In 2015, the Green candidate did even better, though only half the Tory majority this time.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
Well Tories couldn't actually campaign for Nick in Broxtowe however not all canvassing for the Conservative candidate needs to be completely helpful and on message....Just sayin'
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Darn - you're going to beat me to it!
Hanging up your boots if we Leave? Sorry to hear that TSE. You're too good to lose.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
She really was bad. Trust me
Chuka Umunna much better.
Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.
The betting markets are not moving in the slightest. So if there was indeed a leak, it was evidently not terribly exciting either one way or the other.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.
I just struggle with the idea the traditional Labour vote could be anything other than Leave, to be honest. It feels like even more for them than others that the EU is something done to them rather than for them, the EU is all about an international elite that looks down on 'ppoulist contagion', if people want to kick elites, why wouldn't you kick the EU?
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
London is vastly outnumbered by the rest of England, and isn't Wales still in play?
Trouble is that this is from a man who said that the only criticism he'd take about the Better Together campaign in the Sindyref is that it wasn't negative enough.
He's confused as to why the polls have continued to converge, and some still show (on eve of poll) small Leave leads.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
Well Tories couldn't actually campaign for Nick in Broxtowe however not all canvassing for the Conservative candidate needs to be completely helpful and on message....Just sayin'
This really is or could be (hyperbole alert, and I'm sober) a realignment of British politics.
Old Lab & Old Cons and then some newfangled kind of centrist grouping.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
The fact she's brought about the inaugural meeting of 'Leavers for Nick Palmer' says it all.
The betting markets are not moving in the slightest. So if there was indeed a leak, it was evidently not terribly exciting either one way or the other.
The central expected outcome from the betting markets has been 52.1%. So probably all in the price, betting-wise.
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
London is vastly outnumbered by the rest of England, and isn't Wales still in play?
London GE 2015 Labour 43.7% 45 Seats Conservative 34.9% 27 Seats
...and yet no PM Miliband!
London will solidly vote for remain, of that I have no doubt, but is just 11.7% of the total electorate.
My predictions for Tyne and Wear and surrounding areas based upon feelings and perceived local attitudes:
Leave:
Sunderland North Tyneside South Tyneside County Durham Northumberland
Remain:
Newcastle upon Tyne Gateshead
Darlington -Remain.
Redcar - pass
Solidly Labour but has been known to kick the elites when angered - even voted LD in 2010 when the Steel plan was mothballed the first time. I could see them going Leave in a big way.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
She really was bad. Trust me
Chuka Umunna much better.
Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.
Politics, eh?
He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
London is vastly outnumbered by the rest of England, and isn't Wales still in play?
London GE 2015 Labour 43.7% 45 Seats Conservative 34.9% 27 Seats
...and yet no PM Miliband!
London will solidly vote for remain, of that I have no doubt, but is just 11.7% of the total electorate.
What is it with Remainers overtalking everyone else? It's really tedious.
That's not a remainer thing, that's a politician thing. The worst offender I've ever seen is Boris.
@tyson mentioned earlier having siblings so knowing how to wind people up. Being an MP (Nick?) must be like having 649 siblings and needing to assert yourself. To say nothing of the selection process.
Yougov and Opinium have had Remain no better than 60:40 in London and they both have good recent records in the capital. The register hasn't risen much either, certainly not at levels seen in places that have been good for UKIP in recent times.
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
Good to know, and a salutary balance for the LEAVE optimism
I too see London swinging massively REMAIN, the property price thing has really hit home. Even renters will go REMAIN, as so many of them depend on the booming London economy to hang on in there.
Equally, I think LEAVE areas will be more LEAVE than we expect.
The nation is polarising.
Look at my figures: if England is 50/50, London is 66% Remain.
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
London is vastly outnumbered by the rest of England, and isn't Wales still in play?
London GE 2015 Labour 43.7% 45 Seats Conservative 34.9% 27 Seats
...and yet no PM Miliband!
London will solidly vote for remain, of that I have no doubt, but is just 11.7% of the total electorate.
Add in Scotland and NI too....
May not be as Remain heavy as thought at the start either!
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
Well Tories couldn't actually campaign for Nick in Broxtowe however not all canvassing for the Conservative candidate needs to be completely helpful and on message....Just sayin'
This really is or could be (hyperbole alert, and I'm sober) a realignment of British politics.
Old Lab & Old Cons and then some newfangled kind of centrist grouping.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
She really was bad. Trust me
Chuka Umunna much better.
Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.
Politics, eh?
He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.
The Remain line is that it is the price of entry to the single market. Not expected to work for a significant number of people (nor any confirmed Leaver) but has the merit of being the case.
A couple of thoughts about the EEA (Norway single market) option as I suspect that will be the consensus choice following a Leave victory. Remainers will go for it as the best of the options still on the table and it will also get the vote of cautious Leavers who don't want more disruption than necessary. It has the advantage of being "off the shelf", you know what you get, so you don't spend two years negotiating a deal that may amount to much. The EU is quite likely to agree to the UK's membership on the usual "pretend and extend" basis. It saves them having to negotiate something different and shortens their own period of uncertainty.
So win/win all round? Not at all. The EEA comes with all the features people object to about the EU, while adding some very serious defects of its own. The EEA comes with the same freedom of movement requirement as the EU (no change to immigration policies), decisions are made remotely in Brussels, you are subject to an extra-territorial court (equivalent to the ECJ) and you have to pay fees to play.
The big extra defect is that non EU members of the EEA no input into the policies they must implement. A vital principle of any pooled sovereignty arrangement (EU, NATO, possibly the UK itself) is that you take on obligations in exchange for influencing common policy. You may decide the exchange is a good or a bad one, but there is always a deal. That principle is entirely missing from the EEA. There is no deal.
On principle, if you have voted Leave to be masters of our own ship (which in my view is the only good reason to vote Leave - otherwise it's not worth the grief) you will find you have much less influence under the EEA than in the EU. It's a democratic issue, demonstrated by Norway's experience. EEA-related policy is simply not discussed in parliament or by government, unless it's about the mechanics of implementation. Why discuss something you have no influence over , if you might end up disagreeing with it? And it's a practical issue. If there's something you really hate as an EU member you can normally horsetrade it away. Not so the EEA. If we get told to implement something we heartily dislike and which we had no influence over, are we going to just say, Fine, you decide?
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
Good to know, and a salutary balance for the LEAVE optimism
I too see London swinging massively REMAIN, the property price thing has really hit home. Even renters will go REMAIN, as so many of them depend on the booming London economy to hang on in there.
Equally, I think LEAVE areas will be more LEAVE than we expect.
The nation is polarising.
The Evening Standard is ludicrously pro-Remain today, in a manner reminiscent of when they backed Boris over Livingtone. The editorial and half a dozen different stories are all strongly pro-Remain.
Have volunteered to do knocking up for Leave tomorrow evening.Apparently although no local canvass return info there is quite a sophisticated computer with relevant information sufficient to make knocking up worthwhile. Interested to hear what others are doing.
The same-doing door knocking
I feared the organisation would be a UKIP Cluster F*** Actually It really is quite good
Enough to get us over the line??...dont know
But if you had told me 6 weeks ago this is what I would have to work with the night before the Vote with the polls this close
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
Well Tories couldn't actually campaign for Nick in Broxtowe however not all canvassing for the Conservative candidate needs to be completely helpful and on message....Just sayin'
This really is or could be (hyperbole alert, and I'm sober) a realignment of British politics.
Old Lab & Old Cons and then some newfangled kind of centrist grouping.
My predictions for Tyne and Wear and surrounding areas based upon feelings and perceived local attitudes:
Leave:
Sunderland North Tyneside South Tyneside County Durham Northumberland
Remain:
Newcastle upon Tyne Gateshead
Darlington -Remain.
My figures have just Newcastle voting Remain at 56% if it's 50/50 in England.
There's a lot of public sector employment in the north-east. A lot of middle class Labour supporters I would think. Provincial middle class Labour voters are a demographic that doesn't get mentioned much.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
She really was bad. Trust me
Chuka Umunna much better.
Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.
Politics, eh?
He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.
The Remain line is that it is the price of entry to the single market. Not expected to work for a significant number of people (nor any confirmed Leaver) but has the merit of being the case.
Yes but is it a price his electorate happy with the bargain?
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
Good to know, and a salutary balance for the LEAVE optimism
I too see London swinging massively REMAIN, the property price thing has really hit home. Even renters will go REMAIN, as so many of them depend on the booming London economy to hang on in there.
Equally, I think LEAVE areas will be more LEAVE than we expect.
The nation is polarising.
Look at my figures: if England is 50/50, London is 66% Remain.
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
Good to know, and a salutary balance for the LEAVE optimism
I too see London swinging massively REMAIN, the property price thing has really hit home. Even renters will go REMAIN, as so many of them depend on the booming London economy to hang on in there.
Equally, I think LEAVE areas will be more LEAVE than we expect.
The nation is polarising.
Agreed. I think Camden could be close to 80% Remain
Have volunteered to do knocking up for Leave tomorrow evening.Apparently although no local canvass return info there is quite a sophisticated computer with relevant information sufficient to make knocking up worthwhile. Interested to hear what others are doing.
The same-doing door knocking
I feared the organisation would be a UKIP Cluster F*** Actually It really is quite good
Enough to get us over the line??...dont know
But if you had told me 6 weeks ago this is what I would have to work with the night before the Vote with the polls this close
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Just spoken to the local Leave Area Organiser-he is very bullish about things locally with great pledges and a well organised GOTV (which i am part of ) and having done several GOTV at GE I would concur it is a LOT better than I was expecting.
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry. London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
Good to know, and a salutary balance for the LEAVE optimism
I too see London swinging massively REMAIN, the property price thing has really hit home. Even renters will go REMAIN, as so many of them depend on the booming London economy to hang on in there.
Equally, I think LEAVE areas will be more LEAVE than we expect.
The nation is polarising.
Look at my figures: if England is 50/50, London is 66% Remain.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
I am more than worried that the Labour Leave vote is A) not as large as forecast not motivated enough to turn out
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
She really was bad. Trust me
Chuka Umunna much better.
Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.
Politics, eh?
He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.
The Remain line is that it is the price of entry to the single market. Not expected to work for a significant number of people (nor any confirmed Leaver) but has the merit of being the case.
Yes but is it a price his electorate happy with the bargain?
Well of course that is exactly what we will find out tomorrow. I like the line (and it took some time for it to emerge) because it is bullshit-free and as you say, gives the electorate a clear choice.
Better than Boris and Leadsom with their 60% of our laws bollocks they are still pushing.
Dependent on London thought it would be, and so grumbles that would cause, but if Remain have to win, I hope it wins 50+ in England as a whole, however marginally. Just to close down, for a time, one avenue of continued grievance.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning
But no AV thread?
I'm toying with an AV thread.
What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.
Down in London today and tomorrow. Out for a drink with a Labour Remain friend tonight. He's at Sussex Way in North Islington at 7.00 am tomorrow for a full day of action. Bizarrely confident. Very surprised at my pessimism.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
I am more than worried that the Labour Leave vote is A) not as large as forecast not motivated enough to turn out
Hopefully I am wrong but I am very nervous
I think Lab have been battering us with REMAIN e mails for days,
i think LAB leave is solid and will vote, but hey i thought EICIPM
ComRes @ComResPolls 9s10 seconds ago 8point #Remain lead over #Leave (54% to 46%) in final UK wide poll of #EUref campaign for @itvnews & @DailyMailUK
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning
But no AV thread?
I'm toying with an AV thread.
What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exc: Times/YouGov eve of poll Remain 51 Leave 49 Weighted for turnout & asking "don't knows" likely to vote. Includes NI 3,766 June 20-23
Comments
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
Then he joined the Labour Party. One of life's little ironies!
BUT
The feed back is London is a real worry.
London appears to be breaking for Remain in a big way and more than feared.
It might be paranoia
It might be the stick to beat the troops and make sure that they do not become complacent
But that is the feedback.
Rob Hayward has called it for Leave.
Hanging up your boots if we Leave? Sorry to hear that TSE. You're too good to lose.
Politics, eh?
Four out of four through?
He's confused as to why the polls have continued to converge, and some still show (on eve of poll) small Leave leads.
Old Lab & Old Cons and then some newfangled kind of centrist grouping.
Boro, Stockton - Remain
Redcar - pass
Labour 43.7% 45 Seats
Conservative 34.9% 27 Seats
...and yet no PM Miliband!
London will solidly vote for remain, of that I have no doubt, but is just 11.7% of the total electorate.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
So win/win all round? Not at all. The EEA comes with all the features people object to about the EU, while adding some very serious defects of its own. The EEA comes with the same freedom of movement requirement as the EU (no change to immigration policies), decisions are made remotely in Brussels, you are subject to an extra-territorial court (equivalent to the ECJ) and you have to pay fees to play.
The big extra defect is that non EU members of the EEA no input into the policies they must implement. A vital principle of any pooled sovereignty arrangement (EU, NATO, possibly the UK itself) is that you take on obligations in exchange for influencing common policy. You may decide the exchange is a good or a bad one, but there is always a deal. That principle is entirely missing from the EEA. There is no deal.
On principle, if you have voted Leave to be masters of our own ship (which in my view is the only good reason to vote Leave - otherwise it's not worth the grief) you will find you have much less influence under the EEA than in the EU. It's a democratic issue, demonstrated by Norway's experience. EEA-related policy is simply not discussed in parliament or by government, unless it's about the mechanics of implementation. Why discuss something you have no influence over , if you might end up disagreeing with it? And it's a practical issue. If there's something you really hate as an EU member you can normally horsetrade it away. Not so the EEA. If we get told to implement something we heartily dislike and which we had no influence over, are we going to just say, Fine, you decide?
I feared the organisation would be a UKIP Cluster F***
Actually It really is quite good
Enough to get us over the line??...dont know
But if you had told me 6 weeks ago this is what I would have to work with the night before the Vote with the polls this close
Fantastic effort by UK and Ireland.
The mood in Scotland must be a bit grim!
Interesting, you think if its 50/50 Wiltshire will only be 52.21% leave? I'm surprised
The best TV moment for Remain in the whole campaign.
A) not as large as forecast
Hopefully I am wrong but I am very nervous
Better than Boris and Leadsom with their 60% of our laws bollocks they are still pushing.
Chris Cook @xtophercook · 12m12 minutes ago
We are a top, top, top footballing archipelago. #coybig
i think LAB leave is solid and will vote, but hey i thought EICIPM
Guernsey? My arse! We got Guernsey, Jersey, Alderney AND Sark!
8point #Remain lead over #Leave (54% to 46%) in final UK wide poll of #EUref campaign for @itvnews & @DailyMailUK
Remain 51
Leave 49
Weighted for turnout & asking "don't knows" likely to vote. Includes NI
3,766 June 20-23