As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
Have a good polling day everyone.
You too James. That's why I vote in person - there's just something so tingly about it.
My brother has just flown back from Germany tonight as he wants to vote Leave in person :-)
It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
Actually, I feel supremely relaxed. Calm. Serene. I think we could perhaps (just perhaps) be about to do something noble and special. Something we'll look back on one day and feel supremely proud of ourselves for. And, even more importantly, do the whole of Europe a great service in the cause of democracy in the process.
This isn't just rhetoric. Just look at how the closeness of this vote (alone) is causing some EU politicians, who've ignored reform for years, with sneering and contempt, to suddenly start becoming worried. To start thinking that *perhaps* they need to do something different. That perhaps some reform is needed.
That's the power of democracy.
And then you have Juncker, reverting to type, just as it looks like he might be safe from it.
If we can just hold our nerve for the next 26 hours we could (perhaps) change things forever.
Courage isn't about not being afraid. Everyone is a bit afraid. It's about doing the right thing even though you're afraid.
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.
Hmm. They were pretty dramatically wrong last year. What was the Conservative seats mid-point on polling day?
Are we perhaps all getting just a tad excited? Whoever wins tomorrow, it's unlikely anything dramatic I mean really dramatic, will happen on Friday, or next week, or next month or even next year. I have held the view all along that whatever the outcome, we will never leave the EU, never.
It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
Actually, I feel supremely relaxed. Calm. Serene. I think we could perhaps (just perhaps) be about to do something noble and special. Something we'll look back on one day and feel supremely proud of ourselves for. And, even more importantly, do the whole of Europe a great service in the cause of democracy in the process.
This isn't just rhetoric. Just look at how the closeness of this vote (alone) is causing some EU politicians, who've ignored reform for years, with sneering and contempt, to suddenly start becoming worried. To start thinking that *perhaps* they need to do something different. That perhaps some reform is needed.
That's the power of democracy.
And then you have Juncker, reverting to type, just as it looks like he might be safe from it.
If we can just hold our nerve for the next 26 hours we could (perhaps) change things forever.
Courage isn't about not being afraid. Everyone is a bit afraid. It's about doing the right thing even though you're afraid.
You can't get more courageous than that.
I quite agree. I just think your idea of the right thing is absolutely the wrong thing.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
Have a good polling day everyone.
You too James. That's why I vote in person - there's just something so tingly about it.
My brother has just flown back from Germany tonight as he wants to vote Leave in person :-)
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures markets
The magnitude of the Leave vote matters too. If it's a 52:48, then the markets will consider EFTA/EEA as the likeliest option, and will sell sterling off less than if its 58:42, and Completely Out.
Have a feeling "the experts" who are calling this for Remain have it wrong. No wonder people don't believe them.
I view financial experts who voice their opinion the same as I view horseracing tipsters. If they're so clever why aren't they just quietly making a fortune on the financial markets instead of earning a living being a public expert?
It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
I think we could perhaps (just perhaps) be about to do something noble and special. Something we'll look back on one day and feel supremely proud of ourselves for. And, even more importantly, do the whole of Europe a great service in the cause of democracy in the process.
Have a feeling "the experts" who are calling this for Remain have it wrong. No wonder people don't believe them.
I view financial experts who voice their opinion the same as I view horseracing tipsters. If they're so clever why aren't they just quietly making a fortune on the financial markets instead of earning a living being a public expert?
Most hedge fund managers start off on "the sell side" and graduate from there.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've bought some Red Bull too - just in case I start seriously flagging or getting too plonked and sleepy. I fell asleep during 0200-0500 in GE2010 and kicked myself.
Are we perhaps all getting just a tad excited? Whoever wins tomorrow, it's unlikely anything dramatic I mean really dramatic, will happen on Friday, or next week, or next month or even next year. I have held the view all along that whatever the outcome, we will never leave the EU, never.
We won’t really Leave (if we do) until June 2018, although we’ll be asked to do nothing “new” in the meantime, until the treaty terms have been worked out. When they are, of course, we might well find ourselves doing all sorts of “new" things without being consulted about them.
On polling days, I usually miss all the political coverage. This time I'm looking forward to it.
And urgh, just looked at The Times for tomorrow - Aaronovitch is comparing Leavers to Enoch Powell.
I'll skip straight to the comments - they'll be fun.
Matt d'Ancona doing the same in the Standard. Must be the new line
Farage not off-putting enough?
Maybe they finally realised that Farage is rated higher than Cameron and Osborne are?
After GE2010, ConHome revealed that the Conservative campaign made very little use of voter research to test messages and poll how voters reacted to key people. I wonder if Con/REMAIN have fallen back into that habit of not doing enough research? What else would explain their blindness to the relative ratings of Cameron, Osborne, Boris and Farage?
Guessing, a pure guess that Comm Res have Leave at least 5% ahead. I voted Remain by post and would do so again tomorrow but you can sense the situation. It is all Leave. They could hit upper 50% bracket particularly if it pours down in London tomorrow. But it is what is going to happen from Friday and over the weekend. The financial and political fall outs could be gi-normous. We will be in a new world. Theresa May to hold things together?
It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
Actually, I feel supremely relaxed. Calm. Serene. I think we could perhaps (just perhaps) be about to do something noble and special. Something we'll look back on one day and feel supremely proud of ourselves for. And, even more importantly, do the whole of Europe a great service in the cause of democracy in the process.
This isn't just rhetoric. Just look at how the closeness of this vote (alone) is causing some EU politicians, who've ignored reform for years, with sneering and contempt, to suddenly start becoming worried. To start thinking that *perhaps* they need to do something different. That perhaps some reform is needed.
That's the power of democracy.
And then you have Juncker, reverting to type, just as it looks like he might be safe from it.
If we can just hold our nerve for the next 26 hours we could (perhaps) change things forever.
Courage isn't about not being afraid. Everyone is a bit afraid. It's about doing the right thing even though you're afraid.
You can't get more courageous than that.
I quite agree. I just think your idea of the right thing is absolutely the wrong thing.
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?
Have volunteered to do knocking up for Leave tomorrow evening.Apparently although no local canvass return info there is quite a sophisticated computer with relevant information sufficient to make knocking up worthwhile. Interested to hear what others are doing.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures markets
The magnitude of the Leave vote matters too. If it's a 52:48, then the markets will consider EFTA/EEA as the likeliest option, and will sell sterling off less than if its 58:42, and Completely Out.
When the whole campaign has been about immigration how on earth could a PM do a deal that involved free movement? It's surely inconceivable and Ukip would be back in the game when a Leave vote should have shot their fox.
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.
Hmm. They were pretty dramatically wrong last year. What was the Conservative seats mid-point on polling day?
They (betting markets) called the direction of travel- I think they had the Tories at circa 290 seats, well ahead of Labour. As too in 1992- they had the Tories as the largest party.
For Brexit to win, the political markets would all need to have called the direction of travel wrong- all of them. This has never happened in the history of political betting markets....not just here, but everywhere.
The only election which I can recall where the betting markets were genuinely baffled by which way it would go was the 2006 Italian GE which was eventually won by Prodi by a whisker. The betting markets tomorrow don't even say it is going to be that close.
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
There will be pockets here and pockets there with people signalling the appropriate virtue all of the place. It's down to the wire!
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
I do wonder just how many people taking the stickers are eligable to vote...
Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.
What are the odds of a Labour government in the next few years? Leave does mean renationalisation, and we'll be lucky if it's just the railways.
That same Labour government would equally be trying to join the disaster that is the Euro. "Starting the conversation" or "getting the debate going". All those old tricks.
Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.
You mean repatriation not renationalisation. Most franchises seem to be partially or wholly owned by nationalised foreign railways. It seems odd that the German government is allowed to run our railways but not our government because governments are inefficient at running railways....
PS It is almost, not quite but almost, worth England losing just to see the reaction then. But maybe we shouldn't wish that on him - it would probably entail a visit to the ICU for treatment.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
Apparently 53-47 to Leave in Sunderland is supposed on demographics to mean 50/50 overall.
But it might be closer there due to Japanese car factory - or it might not.
Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.
What are the odds of a Labour government in the next few years? Leave does mean renationalisation, and we'll be lucky if it's just the railways.
That same Labour government would equally be trying to join the disaster that is the Euro. "Starting the conversation" or "getting the debate going". All those old tricks.
Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.
You mean repatriation not renationalisation. Most franchises seem to be partially or wholly owned by nationalised foreign railways. It seems odd that the German government is allowed to run our railways but not our government because governments are inefficient at running railways....
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
There will be pockets here and pockets there with people signalling the appropriate virtue all of the place. It's down to the wire!
Btw do Pollsters down weight C2/DE responses from their proportion of the population to the proportion of voters? If so then Leave could be several points further ahead than polls suggest, as they may have (a) found something that they really want to vote for and (b) their vote actually counts. So they'll turn out at a rate much higher than usual.
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.
Come come, tyson. Are you claiming you're serene and calm, as you look forward to the inevitable REMAIN win?
A week ago you flounced off the site in despair, saying you couldn't stand the anxiety.
I've given my prediction...I cannot call it.
I am just using the betting markets now to wind the fuck out of you Brexiters; to piss on your love in parade the night before. I am the youngest child from a large family.... if you couldn't work out how to wind up your older siblings you would have been ignored throughout your childhood.
Have volunteered to do knocking up for Leave tomorrow evening.Apparently although no local canvass return info there is quite a sophisticated computer with relevant information sufficient to make knocking up worthwhile. Interested to hear what others are doing.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
53% leave is touch and go, 55% or more for a prize I'm told.
Btw do Pollsters down weight C2/DE responses from their proportion of the population to the proportion of voters? If so then Leave could be several points further ahead than polls suggest, as they may have (a) found something that they really want to vote for and (b) their vote actually counts. So they'll turn out at a rate much higher than usual.
If we vote Leave there will be tears, either from the Kippers who will find out immigrants still come here, or from team EFTA, or from Labour Leave when we get a right wing Boris government. Too many contradictory agendas.
PS It is almost, not quite but almost, worth England losing just to see the reaction then. But maybe we shouldn't wish that on him - it would probably entail a visit to the ICU for treatment.
Mozart, Sigmund Freud, Franz Josef, Archduke Ferdinand, your boys took one hell of a beating.
Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.
What are the odds of a Labour government in the next few years? Leave does mean renationalisation, and we'll be lucky if it's just the railways.
Highly likely in my view. Post-Brexit we'll be in uncharted territory, with PM Boris being the very personification of the most risky political/economic decision a nation has made in modern times. There will be no hiding place for him or the Tories. 2020 might make 1997 look like a slap on the wrist in comparison.
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?
It's the stuff of direct democracy. What it has done for me, more than anything, is bring home to me what a good idea representative democracy is.
No, because what has happened over the years is that the political classes have not bothered to engage with the voters, see for example this quote from a beeb man on Guido:
David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…
“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”
The reality is that this engages people. That is important.
I'm oddly serene as well. That's possibly because the referendum is win-win for me.
My big fear was a massive REMAIN win - 60/40 or worse - and Britain doomed to vassalage in a newly-confident Euro-empire. UGH. All those gloating Europhiles in the Guardian. UGH!!!! Polly Toynbee and Michael Heseltine chortling!! UGH UGH UGH
That outcome is now essentially impossible, and for me we two three other outcomes, which all have their advantages.
Narrow REMAIN means I do well financially - London surges, property prices go back up, and the EU havs been served notice.
Narrow LEAVE and we quit the EU but enter the EEA/EFTA. The hit to the economy will be small. And we will be out the EU. And everyone on the Guardian will cry for a month. Yay.
I discount a Big LEAVE. Most unlikely.
If the out option was EEA/EFTA I would also be relaxed about it. Indeed, if that had been pre-negotiated I might vote for it. But I think that the outcome of Leave is far less predictable. There's going to be a lot of opposition to keeping free movement.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.
Harold Wilson was 1/4 to win the 1970 General Election, but thanks to a string of narrow wins in marginal seats across the midlands, Ted Heath won. That's how we ended up in the EU.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.
You mean repatriation not renationalisation. Most franchises seem to be partially or wholly owned by nationalised foreign railways. It seems odd that the German government is allowed to run our railways but not our government because governments are inefficient at running railways....
If we vote Leave there will be tears, either from the Kippers who will find out immigrants still come here, or from team EFTA, or from Labour Leave when we get a right wing Boris government. Too many contradictory agendas.
There are always tears about something. Given that the twitter sphere seems to exist only on the outer limits of hyperbole, it'll just be something else to be 'outraged' or 'appalled' or 'furious' about.
I predict a mid-twenty first century epidemic as a million social media warriors hit middle age and die due to an excess of choler in their blood.
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.
Harold Wilson was 1/4 to win the 1970 General Election, but thanks to a string of narrow wins in marginal seats across the midlands, Ted Heath won. That's how we ended up in the EU.
Hmmm, Joe Hart tried to do an impersonation of Peter Bonetti, but it wasn't enough to stop us going through.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures markets
The magnitude of the Leave vote matters too. If it's a 52:48, then the markets will consider EFTA/EEA as the likeliest option, and will sell sterling off less than if its 58:42, and Completely Out.
When the whole campaign has been about immigration how on earth could a PM do a deal that involved free movement? It's surely inconceivable and Ukip would be back in the game when a Leave vote should have shot their fox.
Because the deal must satisfy 51% of the population, not 51% of Leave voters.
I think whatever is agreed must be confirmed by referendum.
I'd also point out that there are various degrees of free movement.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
I made it 51 - others made it 55. The unknown factor is the Nissan plant in Washington.
Sunderland has quite a lot of traditional Labour - The polling was (in 2015)
Labour 50% UKIP.....24% Tories.. 20% LibDems 6%
LEAVE = 24% + 30% X 50% + 60% X 20% = 51%
The good UKIP score being held back by the poor labour score. Any more than this and Leave look good - if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning
Will be a very quiet graveyard shift for you I'm sure...
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.
Come come, tyson. Are you claiming you're serene and calm, as you look forward to the inevitable REMAIN win?
A week ago you flounced off the site in despair, saying you couldn't stand the anxiety.
I've given my prediction...I cannot call it.
I am just using the betting markets now to wind the fuck out of you Brexiters; to piss on your love in parade the night before. I am the youngest child from a large family.... if you couldn't work out how to wind up your older siblings you would have been ignored throughout your childhood.
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?
It's the stuff of direct democracy. What it has done for me, more than anything, is bring home to me what a good idea representative democracy is.
No, because what has happened over the years is that the political classes have not bothered to engage with the voters, see for example this quote from a beeb man on Guido:
David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…
“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”
The reality is that this engages people. That is important.
It has engaged people and I agree that's a good thing. The audience last night was something remarkable in its way. But what people have been engaged by is utter garbage from the campaigns. Remain or leave, we can't say that people have made a well-informed decision.
I would be happy if we never have another referendum. I wouldn't like to see Britain become like California, holding plebiscites for fun.
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morning
But no AV thread?
I'm toying with an AV thread.
What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.
There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.
I think that's the idea of strike action isn't it? Anyway, I think quite a few people will be more concerned about getting to and from work than with the EUref.
Comments
Nice bloke too i remember him well from a PB meet
This isn't just rhetoric. Just look at how the closeness of this vote (alone) is causing some EU politicians, who've ignored reform for years, with sneering and contempt, to suddenly start becoming worried. To start thinking that *perhaps* they need to do something different. That perhaps some reform is needed.
That's the power of democracy.
And then you have Juncker, reverting to type, just as it looks like he might be safe from it.
If we can just hold our nerve for the next 26 hours we could (perhaps) change things forever.
Courage isn't about not being afraid. Everyone is a bit afraid. It's about doing the right thing even though you're afraid.
You can't get more courageous than that.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
I have held the view all along that whatever the outcome, we will never leave the EU, never.
Keep the buggers on their toes is what I say!
A report from the front:
I am at the count in Mid Sussex tomorrow. Apparently due to report between 3 and 4 so as to be well in advance of the markets opening.
Word on the street.... My arse. Turnout here may well get above 80%. A lot of interest I'm told from people who have never voted before.
I note Betfair is still 'avin' a laugh with odds of 3.85 on the UK with 3 in England. I am on a better but that still has to be value.
Anyway, good luck everyone who is involved in working to campaign, regardless of what side you are on.
Oh and I do like Vote Leaves GOTV. (Not telling though....)
If they're so clever why aren't they just quietly making a fortune on the financial markets instead of earning a living being a public expert?
Trump steps off the plane. "Folks, if I'm President you're at the front of the queue. Believe me."
an omen.
https://twitter.com/marathonbet/status/745703277124329472
After GE2010, ConHome revealed that the Conservative campaign made very little use of voter research to test messages and poll how voters reacted to key people. I wonder if Con/REMAIN have fallen back into that habit of not doing enough research? What else would explain their blindness to the relative ratings of Cameron, Osborne, Boris and Farage?
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
For Brexit to win, the political markets would all need to have called the direction of travel wrong- all of them. This has never happened in the history of political betting markets....not just here, but everywhere.
The only election which I can recall where the betting markets were genuinely baffled by which way it would go was the 2006 Italian GE which was eventually won by Prodi by a whisker. The betting markets tomorrow don't even say it is going to be that close.
But, that said, suckers, there could be a first.
Exciting no?
Now, i must be off. Before my wife divorces me.
Laterz.
PS It is almost, not quite but almost, worth England losing just to see the reaction then. But maybe we shouldn't wish that on him - it would probably entail a visit to the ICU for treatment.
At Victoria just the usual Southern Trains chaos. If any campaign promised Govia losing the franchise they would sweep the South.
But it might be closer there due to Japanese car factory - or it might not.
I've given my prediction...I cannot call it.
I am just using the betting markets now to wind the fuck out of you Brexiters; to piss on your love in parade the night before. I am the youngest child from a large family.... if you couldn't work out how to wind up your older siblings you would have been ignored throughout your childhood.
Did he just say "500 will be voting Remain, 50 voting Leave"?
Your boys took a hell of a beating?
It's about Jo Cox... and waycism, and everything...
No wonder Farage ducked this crap.
David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…
“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”
The reality is that this engages people. That is important.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
That's how we ended up in the EU.
I predict a mid-twenty first century epidemic as a million social media warriors hit middle age and die due to an excess of choler in their blood.
I think whatever is agreed must be confirmed by referendum.
I'd also point out that there are various degrees of free movement.
Sunderland has quite a lot of traditional Labour - The polling was (in 2015)
Labour 50%
UKIP.....24%
Tories.. 20%
LibDems 6%
LEAVE = 24% + 30% X 50% + 60% X 20% = 51%
The good UKIP score being held back by the poor labour score. Any more than this and Leave look good - if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.
I would be happy if we never have another referendum. I wouldn't like to see Britain become like California, holding plebiscites for fun.
What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.
a) Remain
b) Leave
c) EEA Option