Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
I am more than worried that the Labour Leave vote is A) not as large as forecast not motivated enough to turn out
Hopefully I am wrong but I am very nervous
I think Lab have been battering us with REMAIN e mails for days,
i think LAB leave is solid and will vote, but hey i thought EICIPM
Hey, you were half right (easy joke, but then I was EICIPM too), you can be again - Lab might be solid but not vote, or vote but not be solid.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
She really was bad. Trust me
Chuka Umunna much better.
Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.
Politics, eh?
He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.
The Remain line is that it is the price of entry to the single market. Not expected to work for a significant number of people (nor any confirmed Leaver) but has the merit of being the case.
Yes but is it a price his electorate happy with the bargain?
Well of course that is exactly what we will find out tomorrow. I like the line (and it took some time for it to emerge) because it is bullshit-free and as you say, gives the electorate a clear choice.
Better than Boris and Leadsom with their 60% of our laws bollocks they are still pushing.
ComRes @ComResPolls 9s10 seconds ago 8point #Remain lead over #Leave (54% to 46%) in final UK wide poll of #EUref campaign for @itvnews & @DailyMailUK
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
She really was bad. Trust me
Chuka Umunna much better.
Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.
Politics, eh?
He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.
The Remain line is that it is the price of entry to the single market. Not expected to work for a significant number of people (nor any confirmed Leaver) but has the merit of being the case.
Yes but is it a price his electorate happy with the bargain?
Well of course that is exactly what we will find out tomorrow. I like the line (and it took some time for it to emerge) because it is bullshit-free and as you say, gives the electorate a clear choice.
Better than Boris and Leadsom with their 60% of our laws bollocks they are still pushing.
Well quite. Which line?
sorry...saying that "if you want the single market you get immigration. That's the deal."
A stirring speech from Sheila Hancock, followed by a turn-off smug-fest from Steve Hilton.
The best TV moment for Remain in the whole campaign.
Considering that David Cameron was the only human on the planet to take him seriously, who persuaded Leave that Steve Hilton was a good idea?
I don't know what it is, but I have this instinctual distrust of people who go out of their way to disdain even casual business or formal attire on serious occasions. It feels like such a teenage style protest 'I'm too cool and laid back to submit to your sartorial fascisim, dad!'
First off you have the Mason/Harris and who are lionising this group as ' noble savages ' . Victims of globalisation but not ones who use the metropolitan framing. It's also about Mason and Harris being well aware they are Metropolitan liberals at heart and gating themselves for it. Maybe they are right but it's a constructed prism.
It's over. Pack your bags. I will vote LEAVE tomorrow confident in the knowledge that my vote means nothing, and the referendum will reinforce the value of my Primrose Hill (borders) flat
lol
What's over? Remember the polls told us Miliband would be in number 10 in coalition with Sturgeon.
I agree the accuracy of the media prism on the ex industrial Labour heartlands is the key to this.
Agreed. So we have polls all over the place on the final day, some pollsters are going to be suffering from egg/face interaction in about 36 hours' time!
ComRes @ComResPolls 9s10 seconds ago 8point #Remain lead over #Leave (54% to 46%) in final UK wide poll of #EUref campaign for @itvnews & @DailyMailUK
Ah, feck.
Eessh. Feck
London is forecast heavy rain tomorrow. Postal votes happened at peak leave. TNS has Leave at 7 points ahead. Don't lose hope!
No trend to remain, just small drifts (ok, and a large drift, but across the totality of polling not much of a drift if any to remain). Leave have it if not in the bag, then ordered on JustEat at least.
I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.
Interesting that the EU Ref has made politics personality driven.
From all I've heard on here just now (not been watching but have seen her operate previously), Soubry sounds like an effective politician.
Did people want her to bring her puppy on?
Edit: and that is not code for something.
She really was bad. Trust me
Chuka Umunna much better.
Fair enough but interestingly, someone on here ( @FrancisUrquhart? sorry if not) who has met him said in the flesh he was a vacuous know-nothing.
Politics, eh?
He was on PM earlier. Seems to have noticed his BME constituents don't like uncontrolled migration. Still in favour of it though it seems.
The Remain line is that it is the price of entry to the single market. Not expected to work for a significant number of people (nor any confirmed Leaver) but has the merit of being the case.
Yes but is it a price his electorate happy with the bargain?
Well of course that is exactly what we will find out tomorrow. I like the line (and it took some time for it to emerge) because it is bullshit-free and as you say, gives the electorate a clear choice.
Better than Boris and Leadsom with their 60% of our laws bollocks they are still pushing.
Well quite. Which line?
sorry...saying that "if you want the single market you get immigration. That's the deal."
Ah yes. The corollary being if you don't wan immigration (at that scale) vote out. We will see what they do.
I agree the accuracy of the media prism on the ex industrial Labour heartlands is the key to this.
Agreed. So we have polls all over the place on the final day, some pollsters are going to be suffering from egg/face interaction in about 36 hours' time!
I've been canvassing in the Labour heartlands for the past month
My anecdata is leaning heavily in one direction, the polls to other. I'm going to back my anecdata due to the fact that there are still significant doubts over the reliability and accuracy of polling. I'm going 52-48 for leave.
If remain does win, I hope Cameron doesn't rest on his laurels, and pushes for a more formal non-eurozone grouping within the EU.
Are you joking? Like he'd be interested in that.
I know, chillaxing with candy crush is very tempting.
I'd rather he be proactive in ensuring we get what he claims we have - exemption from ever close union. I am sure some of the other non-eurozone countries share the same interest.
It's over. Pack your bags. I will vote LEAVE tomorrow confident in the knowledge that my vote means nothing, and the successful REMAIN referendum campaign will reinforce the value of my Primrose Hill (borders) flat
lol
I will vote Remain but I hope the final result is closer to yougov than Comres, still tighter than the final indyref though so UKIP still has hope of a mini SNP revival if Remain do win. Still could change tomorrow night but it looks like Cameron will bow out as a lucky git...yet again, 2 election wins and 3 referendum wins even better than Blair (albeit no landslides apart from the AV ref!)
Otherwise we shall reunite in order to support anyone playing Portugal and all those GB&I teams in the footie... got to be tough for the Scottish....
@OliverCooper: An Englishman, an Irishman, a Welshman, and a Northern Irishman walk into the last 16. There isn't a punchline, because there's no Scotsman.
Gold Standard = whatever poll or pollster gives the best Remain results
Listen Comrade, I told you to stop looking at polls, and look for the betting markets. You said don't go chasing the money...something that I didn't quite understand, since in political betting, over the years I have done OK.
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 57s58 seconds ago Anyone in #Chesterfield who wants to help @UKLabourIN@StrongerIn tomorrow come to Chestfd Labour Club 7am-8pm. We need you.
Its been bloody incessant from LAB last few days will surely have swung a few Lab loyalists
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 57s58 seconds ago Anyone in #Chesterfield who wants to help @UKLabourIN@StrongerIn tomorrow come to Chestfd Labour Club 7am-8pm. We need you.
Its been bloody incessant from LAB last few days will surely have swung a few Lab loyalists
So incessant that yesterday they forgot to endorse Remain in the email.
If remain does win, I hope Cameron doesn't rest on his laurels, and pushes for a more formal non-eurozone grouping within the EU.
He won't be able to move a muscle without the Leavers say so, or they'll bring him down. That's why he'll be gone by 2017, it's the price for them not causing more trouble at having lost.
If remain does win, I hope Cameron doesn't rest on his laurels, and pushes for a more formal non-eurozone grouping within the EU.
Are you joking? Like he'd be interested in that.
I know, chillaxing with candy crush is very tempting.
I'd rather he be proactive in ensuring we get what he claims we have - exemption from ever close union. I am sure some of the other non-eurozone countries share the same interest.
Once he's taken Angie's phone call and had her purrrrrrrrrrring down the phone he'll want to put the whole sorry episode out of his mind for whatever time he has left as PM (hopefully not much)
Have just heard that we have too many GOTV Remain helpers in North London - being dispatched further afield. Will be offline for most of tomorrow. Have fun everyone, win or lose.
I'm sticking to my Leave win prediction. Nevertheless, the idea that today's social-media-savvy respondents have just been using the polls to spook their political masters for a bit still lingers.
It's over. Pack your bags. I will vote LEAVE tomorrow confident in the knowledge that my vote means nothing, and the referendum will reinforce the value of my Primrose Hill (borders) flat
lol
What's over? Remember the polls told us Miliband would be in number 10 in coalition with Sturgeon.
More of the final polls had the Tories ahead than Labour
Thanks for your company through the last few weeks. Whatever the future holds, I'm sure there will be some great conversations on here. I look forward to them.
Comments
#remain
Edit: IIIIIIIIIIIFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF it transpires.
Good luck to all those involved in GOTV operations. Whatever happens, we need a high turnout.
Hero status or egg on face?
One methodology is going to get its arse kicked.
The Italians have been exceptionally generous to their left footer comrades. Papists together and all that.
Oh...and on frivolous matters, the Comres poll. You Brexiters....did you ever think that you stood a hope?
One of them must be closest....
Remain has far from won yet, that said.
4% swing.
Otherwise we shall reunite in order to support anyone playing Portugal and all those GB&I teams in the footie... got to be tough for the Scottish....
Heads off to betfair..
So might explain some of the movement.
I'd rather he be proactive in ensuring we get what he claims we have - exemption from ever close union. I am sure some of the other non-eurozone countries share the same interest.
What a night it will be.
Anyone in #Chesterfield who wants to help @UKLabourIN @StrongerIn tomorrow come to Chestfd Labour Club 7am-8pm. We need you.
Its been bloody incessant from LAB last few days will surely have swung a few Lab loyalists
BMG 6% REMAIN lead
ORB 8% REMAIN lead
ComRes 8% REMAIN led
Just Ipsos to come
Can you water the plants and put the bins out please, we've decided to stay another week.
Thanks, #ENG #WAL #NIR #IRE x
Old Remainers = worm food tomorrow. Young Remainers = worm food soon. Every Remainer will die.
The readiness is all.
I'm sorry (not) if I'm being repetitive, but I'm just having too much fun.
#NoComplacencyHere.
But that might well be a forlorn hope.
Whatever you're doing tomorrow, I wish you well.
Thanks for your company through the last few weeks. Whatever the future holds, I'm sure there will be some great conversations on here. I look forward to them.
Goodnight everyone.