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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    4.5 now.

    The Ipsos Mori poll out tomorrow finished their field work at 9pm tonight
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    stjohn said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    IIRC!

    What does IIRC mean?

    I can't remember
    Very good stJohn, legend of pbCOM.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261

    HYUFD said:
    Told you insider trading going on. Well Com Res have put their balls on the line there, as everybody else is saying basically 50/50.
    Of course. There is some serious money involved here.

    Someone will have texted his mate somewhere who will have texted someone else... Etc.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    stjohn said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    IIRC!

    What does IIRC mean?

    I can't remember
    Could you look it up for me, if you can't remember correctly :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    As Will Self put it succinctly, not all Brexiters are racists, but all racists will be voting for Brexit.

    Wow! Will Self said something succinctly?!

    Did he manage to do it without looking/sounding like a self important pompous git as well? (Actually I enjoy his articles by and large, but good lord he bloviates).

    He's also wrong, although naturally I only have anecdote - I know two definite racists who say they're voting Remain - they think Boris will be a disaster, the EU will punish us hard and we'll suffer economically, and apparently even the promise of cutting immigration isn't enough to overcome that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    tyson said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: The final three phone polls
    BMG 6% REMAIN lead
    ORB 8% REMAIN lead
    ComRes 8% REMAIN led
    Just Ipsos to come

    There's Survation 1% Remain and ICM 6% Leave as well.
    What do I see......oh yes......I seem some clutching and straws......

    Maybe you are.

    There seems to be a widespread view that:-

    1. Online polls are crap.
    2. Telephone polls that don't put Leave well ahead are crap.

    That seems the very definition of confirmation bias.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Darn, I only managed to get £120 on at 4.3-4.4

    you can get thousands at 4.5 now... oops 4.6 now..4.7...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited June 2016
    DanSmith said:

    ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...

    Maybe Jezza has "saved" Cameron and Osborne! "Sir Jeremy Corbyn" by this time next year perhaps? ;)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    It's over. Pack your bags. I will vote LEAVE tomorrow confident in the knowledge that my vote means nothing, and the successful REMAIN referendum campaign will reinforce the value of my Primrose Hill (borders) flat

    lol

    I will vote Remain but I hope the final result is closer to yougov than Comres, still tighter than the final indyref though so UKIP still has hope of a mini SNP revival if Remain do win. Still could change tomorrow night but it looks like Cameron will bow out as a lucky git...yet again, 2 election wins and 3 referendum wins even better than Blair (albeit no landslides apart from the AV ref!)
    His reputation will be the same as Blair's in a few years though. Of course he probably won't care anymore than Blair does.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,927
    DanSmith said:

    ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...

    It was a good call to put Khan and O'Grady up for the main BBC debate. Leave can't win if that's anywhere near accurate.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,890
    So either Online (Leave) or Phone (Remain) wins. We'll know soon enough.

    One thing the polls can't allow for (IUIC) is that the postal votes were actioned when LEAVE were at the height of their polling popularity. So Leave may already have a decent lead that REMAIN could struggle to overturn.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    DanSmith said:

    ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...

    They've sampled the 40+% of Labour supporters that went to university. Those who did BSc(Hons) Deep Pit Mining.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    DanSmith said:

    ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...

    Maybe 14% was right...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    ComRes has the Labour vote going 80-20 to Remain...

    Maybe Jezza has "saved" Cameron and Osborne! "Sir Jeremy Corbyn" by this time next year perhaps? ;)
    He's already gone native and dressed in white tie and so on at least once.
  • LondonLondon Posts: 40
    stjohn said:

    So either Online (Leave) or Phone (Remain) wins. We'll know soon enough.

    One thing the polls can't allow for (IUIC) is that the postal votes were actioned when LEAVE were at the height of their polling popularity. So Leave may already have a decent lead that REMAIN could struggle to overturn.

    You Gov online poll has Remain ahead (just)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Betfair Brexit market will hit 50 million in next couple of hours
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    surbiton said:

    As Will Self put it succinctly, not all Brexiters are racists, but all racists will be voting for Brexit.

    Was it him who said it about Moslems and terrorists too?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,132
    I haven't got a clue what the result will be tomorrow. Then again neither does Dave - and that will leave him curled up overnight clutching his teddy as he has repeated nightmares about his "legacy".

    Politics. Always good times
  • c777c777 Posts: 6
    I wonder how much the nature of the campaign has had on those who will vote leave.
    But not when asked on a logged call...
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    As Will Self put it succinctly, not all Brexiters are racists, but all racists will be voting for Brexit.

    That's such idiotic thinking, and it's actually similar to racist thinking: "not all young black males in Brixton are muggers", etc. Damned right they're not!

    I still can't understand the betting prices. People are willing to risk entire pots of money for a chance that they will get them back wih 25% interest added if Remain win. How can they be so sure?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    It's over. Pack your bags. I will vote LEAVE tomorrow confident in the knowledge that my vote means nothing, and the successful REMAIN referendum campaign will reinforce the value of my Primrose Hill (borders) flat

    lol

    I will vote Remain but I hope the final result is closer to yougov than Comres, still tighter than the final indyref though so UKIP still has hope of a mini SNP revival if Remain do win. Still could change tomorrow night but it looks like Cameron will bow out as a lucky git...yet again, 2 election wins and 3 referendum wins even better than Blair (albeit no landslides apart from the AV ref!)
    His reputation will be the same as Blair's in a few years though. Of course he probably won't care anymore than Blair does.
    Too true
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