politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead
Only a few hours to go and two more online polls, Opinium and TNS, are reporting LEAVE leads. This means that the latest surveys from all the online pollsters covering the referendum now have leads for LEAVE.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
Jeez, disappear for two hours to find SIX PAGES of new posts. Is anyone with a job actually keeping up with PB for the last week?
On the subject of the plane from earlier, it was definitely a twin engined plane, and will have been under ATC command flying directly above the river. They would have had to get lots of permissions for the flight, and one needs a commercial licence for banner towing. There's not a cat in hell's chance they just decided to fly over a crowd at a rally, messing around really isn't tolerated by the CAA (Civil Aviation Authority, or Campaign Against Aviation as anyone who's ever dealt with them will attest!).
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Although there are quite a few Brexit poster here that I quite like, quirky and charming and willing to engage, there are some obsessive, blinkered, narrow minded and utterly repulsive types (you know who you are) that I will take a great deal of pleasure in their misery come Friday.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
Sounds plausible - they'll be a reaction that even if the stupids have gone more for Leave than thought, the Remain areas will be stronger for Remain than thought.
Sounds like opportunity time. But I'll still be counting - got to earn that extra £150
LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.
Guessing more insider trading on the News at 10 poll.
No - probably people with money trying to bet on a certainty (based on their own narrow social grouping) after having had their chateaubriand, eton mess and champagne dinners - washed down with Pimms - in other words EU bureaucrats.
@SeanT That's why I keep my political thoughts for here. That way I have no need to feel abashed or contrite.
Most of my friends and family have no real idea of my parallel existence here. Just as well all round, I'd say.
When I last met up with you and Mike and the others for the last PB pub meet, I told my mum I was meeting a bunch of friends at a Japanese restaurant near Liverpool Street.
So, when I finally left The Shooting Star, I turned left into Bishopsgate and called at Wasabi to pick up a nice Tofu Curry
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a difference
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a difference
It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Although there are quite a few Brexit poster here that I quite like, quirky and charming and willing to engage, there are some obsessive, blinkered, narrow minded and utterly repulsive types (you know who you are) that I will take a great deal of pleasure in their misery come Friday.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Not sure. Scotland and particularly Quebec suggest otherwise. Maybe. Who knows!!
A message from the Conservative party: "Dear Member There will be a Vigil in memory of Jo Cox, the M.P. who was so tragically killed last week. It is being organised by St. Mary`s Church and will be at 1.p.m. in the Market Square, Stafford tomorrow (Thursday) – a week to both the time and date since she died. If any of you are in Stafford you might like to join the Vigil."
A message from the Conservative party: "Dear Member There will be a Vigil in memory of Jo Cox, the M.P. who was so tragically killed last week. It is being organised by St. Mary`s Church and will be at 1.p.m. in the Market Square, Stafford tomorrow (Thursday) – a week to both the time and date since she died. If any of you are in Stafford you might like to join the Vigil."
Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?
First if it is 'family reasons', I want to say I hope it's nothing unfortunate health-wise for any of his family..
It is however an unfortunate development for his side as inevitably we now wonder why and if there's 'political' reasons of some form and all sorts of speculation will surely arise as to the motives.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a difference
some do. Opinium does for example.
Confusing but does it matter, only 32 hours to make them all redundant
are we using the right metric from the bookies though.
If the average remainer is betting twice the value of the average leaver and the remainers are the rich ones wouldnt the individual number of bets on each side be a better comparison since one side cant afford to bet as much as the other ?
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
@Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.
With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
The general direction has been towards Leave both online and on phone, apart from a noticeable wobble in the aftermath of the murder of Jo Cox. Some Remaindermen are pinning their hopes on people swaying back to the status quo in the voting booth. My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout. I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
@Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.
With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
Nothing different to what we've heard from the Remain campaign for months. Right down to Putin.
We'll get EEA-EFTA if it's a narrow Leave vote and I'd be very happy with that.
That's been the plan along I suspect, the angry anti-immigration voters will prove to have just been the cannon fodder, the useful idiots that got Leave over the line. They will be ignored after tomorrow. Totally deceitful strategy of course but very clever nevertheless.
No, because we *can* use an emergency brake and EU citizens won't have quite the same rights (as Robert pointed out)
I think it will be "sellable" that if it's a narrow Leave mandate, the votes simply aren't there to justify a full clean break (they might be if Leave won 65/35) and we can always reassess the relationship in 10-15 years time.
As I said earlier I am almost 100% certain we cannot use the emergency brake in the way you believe. If we join EFTA and stay in the EEA then we are accepting that - with the exception of the rules on benefits which may well be significant - we cannot do much more about immigration than we can now.
As immigration isn't a big deal for me (while appreciating it's a fecking colossal deal for others), what are the implications for our relationship with the ECHR?
An informal poll of my long-suffering relatives indicated that they perceive that we have difficulty ejecting EU citizens who've committed criminal acts. My initial thought was this was actually perception vs reality....then realized I have no idea. Thoughts?
No implications at all. There was a move up until a year or more ago to make the EU a signatory to the ECHR and to try to standardise rulings. That would have meant that as long as one stayed in the EU one was bound by the ECHR - at least that would have been the eventual aim. The ECJ (I believe) ruled against this so the two institutions (EU and ECHR remain completely separate).
If the UK wanted to Leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then being inside or outside the EU makes no difference. Nor does being inside or outside EFTA/EEA
It was the EHCR itself who ruled against it, saying that as the EU was not a country, it could not be a signatory.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
I think you are probably right about the timing of that. Could give rise to some nice betting opportunities.
My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:
"If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"
You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout. I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.
I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:
"If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"
You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.
I don't think they pushed the idea that Remain isn't a vote for the status quo hard enough.
Regarding price movements ahead of touted polls, I suspect what goes on is not leaking of the poll (as often they don't actually justify the movement when they are published) so much as people betting on what they think the poll will say and trying to get ahead of whatever movement it will bring.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
I seem to recall that they came up with a similar description for an earlier poll and when it emerged it was as dull as dishwater, or am I confusing them with YouGov perhaps?
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
Have a good polling day everyone.
You too James. That's why I vote in person - there's just something so tingly about it.
It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
@Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.
With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!
Favourites get beaten every day, the odds on Brexit are roughly the same on Trump winning, some people bet on what they want to happen rather than on which option represents the best value. Leave is the sensible bet at these prices.
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.
Methinks this is good for leave
Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?
That's my prediction now....well very, very, very, very close.
I think all the idealism that you Brexiters are changing the world (you doe eyed fools) will be equally and perfectly matched by people who do not want to see the UK impoverished.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
1997 was my first general election and I voted New Labour. It was an exciting experience but for me, this is much, much bigger.
This really is a "once in a lifetime" moment to shape the countries long term destiny....
My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout. I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.
I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:
"If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"
You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.
I don't think they pushed the idea that Remain isn't a vote for the status quo hard enough.
? I delivered some leaflets the other day "countries set to join the EU" with the EU external border being extended to Syria and Iraq.
I'd say they've been pressing the dangers of Remain pretty hard.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.
Methinks this is good for leave
Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?
That's my prediction now....well very, very, very, very close.
I think all the idealism that you Brexiters are changing the world (you doe eyed fools) will be equally and perfectly matched by people who do not want to see the UK impoverished.
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures markets
The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
Yeah that's an epic quote, a favourite of Mrs. Sandpit. Enjoy
Anecdote alert. A girl I went to school with has just asked on Facebook if she needs her polling card to vote (told her to take some ID). When asked how she's voting she said Leave. I have to say, I had her down as somebody who doesn't vote.
Comments
God knows where Farage will come. Perhaps the Leave campaign have finally realised...
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=father+jack+gobshite+on+the+telly&&view=detail&mid=600A643E950CD8C1E3CB600A643E950CD8C1E3CB&FORM=VRDGAR
(maybe)
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
Jeez, disappear for two hours to find SIX PAGES of new posts. Is anyone with a job actually keeping up with PB for the last week?
On the subject of the plane from earlier, it was definitely a twin engined plane, and will have been under ATC command flying directly above the river. They would have had to get lots of permissions for the flight, and one needs a commercial licence for banner towing. There's not a cat in hell's chance they just decided to fly over a crowd at a rally, messing around really isn't tolerated by the CAA (Civil Aviation Authority, or Campaign Against Aviation as anyone who's ever dealt with them will attest!).
WE WILL KNOW !
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3654977/Nigel-Farage-pulls-Channel-4-s-EU-referendum-debate-just-hour-start.html
Although there are quite a few Brexit poster here that I quite like, quirky and charming and willing to engage, there are some obsessive, blinkered, narrow minded and utterly repulsive types (you know who you are) that I will take a great deal of pleasure in their misery come Friday.
Sounds like opportunity time. But I'll still be counting - got to earn that extra £150
So, when I finally left The Shooting Star, I turned left into Bishopsgate and called at Wasabi to pick up a nice Tofu Curry
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
"Dear Member
There will be a Vigil in memory of Jo Cox, the M.P. who was so tragically killed last week. It is being organised by St. Mary`s Church and will be at 1.p.m. in the Market Square, Stafford tomorrow (Thursday) – a week to both the time and date since she died. If any of you are in Stafford you might like to join the Vigil."
the EU projectDave!https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/743359287825731584
It is however an unfortunate development for his side as inevitably we now wonder why and if there's 'political' reasons of some form and all sorts of speculation will surely arise as to the motives.
If the average remainer is betting twice the value of the average leaver and the remainers are the rich ones wouldnt the individual number of bets on each side be a better comparison since one side cant afford to bet as much as the other ?
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058
With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
Some Remaindermen are pinning their hopes on people swaying back to the status quo in the voting booth.
My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.
Methinks this is good for leave
What do you mean: last time?
After we Brexit, that will be our new logo.
Really kind of you to say that.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
I have to say that comment was legendary.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
Have a good polling day everyone.
"If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"
You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
Both sides are relying on extremely unreliable allies to carry them over the line.
Edit: Just seen in comments upthread that he's coming Friday now apparently?? Comments coming too fast to follow them all!
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder .
Leave is the sensible bet at these prices.
I think all the idealism that you Brexiters are changing the world (you doe eyed fools) will be equally and perfectly matched by people who do not want to see the UK impoverished.
This really is a "once in a lifetime" moment to shape the countries long term destiny....
Hip, hip, hooray!
Hip, hip, hooray!
And don't forget the champagne..... fzzzzzzz!
I'd say they've been pressing the dangers of Remain pretty hard.
Is he still coming tomorrow?
He's cutting a ribbon at Turnberry on Friday morning.
No word on his precise movements between now and then...
That is not as bad as WW3.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/