politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead
Comments
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If it weren't for this referendum, the industrial relations problems in the rail industry would be getting a lot more coverage in the press.Luckyguy1983 said:There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
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What would the result have been if the options under AV had been:RobD said:
But no AV thread?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morningRobD said:
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!TheScreamingEagles said:Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
A) Leave
b) Remain
C) Negotiate Associate Membership0 -
That would have been a bigger error in GE2015!PlatoSaid said:
I've bought some Red Bull too - just in case I start seriously flagging or getting too plonked and sleepy. I fell asleep during 0200-0500 in GE2010 and kicked myself.John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder
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Post it while OGH isn't watching..... we won't tellTheScreamingEagles said:
I'm toying with an AV thread.RobD said:
But no AV thread?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morningRobD said:
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!TheScreamingEagles said:Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.
a) Remain
b) Leave
c) EEA Option
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I think I've just found the best value bet of the EUREF.....0
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That's pretty bad, will do no favours to the strikers if people get disenfranchised as a result of their action.RobD said:
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.Luckyguy1983 said:There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
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I think the Labour heartlands are going to have a low turnout, I just can't imagine people in Merseyside, Tyneside, the former Yorkshire coalmining areas and the South Wales valleys being very pro-EU.TheScreamingEagles said:Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
It was official Labour party policy to leave the EU as recently as 1983, they might not vote Leave because leavers are now mainly Tories and UKIPers but I can't see them being mad about Remain either.0 -
The result of the Ireland game will have more impact on the result than the C4 debate. If Ireland go out, Nationalists depressed, less likely to feel like voting tomorrow.0
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Still, I don't think it's cricket to have a strike which may affect people's ability to exercise their democratic right.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think that's the idea of strike action isn't it? Anyway, I think quite a few people will be more concerned about getting to and from work than with the EUref.RobD said:
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.Luckyguy1983 said:There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
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I don't know why anybody is watching the d-team debates when the footy is on. Ireland giving it a really good go.0
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Thank f*ck, they've tipped that shower off the stage.
Hannan on now.0 -
Looks like Anna Soubry has taken over from the music guy for Remain.0
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I just struggle with the idea the traditional Labour vote could be anything other than Leave, to be honest. It feels like even more for them than others that the EU is something done to them rather than for them, the EU is all about an international elite that looks down on 'ppoulist contagion', if people want to kick elites, why wouldn't you kick the EU?weejonnie said:
if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.Paristonda said:
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder.
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
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Not sure. I think the results there will be pretty much in line with the 50/50 values.Pulpstar said:
After Sunderland and WandsworthCasino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
WE WILL KNOW !0 -
The BBC took a real risk with the Wembley thing and to their credit pulled it off. Could have been BedlamSeanT said:
It's the worst debate yet. Feel sorry for Paxo. He's better than this.RodCrosby said:Oh I see, it's not about Europe.
It's about Jo Cox... and waycism, and everything...
No wonder Farage ducked this crap.0 -
As the PB consensus mostly agrees (?) Leave needed to be 10% ahead in the polls to win. The momentum is in our favour, but we're not there. Remain knew the momentum was with Leave, so despicably and utterly cynically used a brutal murder to derail the campaign for the required amount of time.0
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I'm a Tory careerist. I always kind of suspectedPlatoSaid said:0 -
Do we know the viewing figures for it?Jonathan said:
The BBC took a real risk with the Wembley thing and to their credit pulled it off. Could have been BedlamSeanT said:
It's the worst debate yet. Feel sorry for Paxo. He's better than this.RodCrosby said:Oh I see, it's not about Europe.
It's about Jo Cox... and waycism, and everything...
No wonder Farage ducked this crap.0 -
To be brutally honest, I think we would have done better to have braved the screams of outrage and started reforming the welfare system on a contributory basis. We've taken a local issue and turned it into a European one.
I'd have voted for an associate membership, as long as that meant the ECJ was not above our supreme court.0 -
Off the top of my head it peaked just over 4million.FrancisUrquhart said:
Do we know the viewing figures for it?Jonathan said:
The BBC took a real risk with the Wembley thing and to their credit pulled it off. Could have been BedlamSeanT said:
It's the worst debate yet. Feel sorry for Paxo. He's better than this.RodCrosby said:Oh I see, it's not about Europe.
It's about Jo Cox... and waycism, and everything...
No wonder Farage ducked this crap.0 -
hmm not top... tory careerist whose Eurosceptic... bollocks to that.PlatoSaid said:0 -
There can't be many folk who have to catch a train to reach their Polling Place.RobD said:
Still, I don't think it's cricket to have a strike which may affect people's ability to exercise their democratic right.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think that's the idea of strike action isn't it? Anyway, I think quite a few people will be more concerned about getting to and from work than with the EUref.RobD said:
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.Luckyguy1983 said:There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
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I thought the consensus was Leave needed to be 5 or so ahead to win (though someone else posted a graph the other day that said Remain needed to be so far ahead to win).Luckyguy1983 said:As the PB consensus mostly agrees (?) Leave needed to be 10% ahead in the polls to win. The momentum is in our favour, but we're not there. Remain knew the momentum was with Leave, so despicably and utterly cynically used a brutal murder to derail the campaign for the required amount of time.
Personally I think the consensus is wrong, and Leave can be a little behind and win.0 -
'Eurosceptic Remainer', well I could have told them that.PlatoSaid said:0 -
More likely than EEA/EFTA is that despite voting Leave we never will. A new offer plus six-12 months of economic dodginess will seal the deal.Wanderer said:
If the out option was EEA/EFTA I would also be relaxed about it. Indeed, if that had been pre-negotiated I might vote for it. But I think that the outcome of Leave is far less predictable. There's going to be a lot of opposition to keeping free movement.SeanT said:
I'm oddly serene as well. That's possibly because the referendum is win-win for me.
My big fear was a massive REMAIN win - 60/40 or worse - and Britain doomed to vassalage in a newly-confident Euro-empire. UGH. All those gloating Europhiles in the Guardian. UGH!!!! Polly Toynbee and Michael Heseltine chortling!! UGH UGH UGH
That outcome is now essentially impossible, and for me we two three other outcomes, which all have their advantages.
Narrow REMAIN means I do well financially - London surges, property prices go back up, and the EU havs been served notice.
Narrow LEAVE and we quit the EU but enter the EEA/EFTA. The hit to the economy will be small. And we will be out the EU. And everyone on the Guardian will cry for a month. Yay.
I discount a Big LEAVE. Most unlikely.
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It's all very well having these kind of media events but full credit to this guy who wanted to take the pulse of the real England.Jonathan said:
The BBC took a real risk with the Wembley thing and to their credit pulled it off. Could have been BedlamSeanT said:
It's the worst debate yet. Feel sorry for Paxo. He's better than this.RodCrosby said:Oh I see, it's not about Europe.
It's about Jo Cox... and waycism, and everything...
No wonder Farage ducked this crap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xH9BNx3SY0g0 -
Whilst I agree that the bullshit dial has been turned up to 15 and been broken off, do trust the electorate. They are much more mature than the political classes.Wanderer said:
It has engaged people and I agree that's a good thing. The audience last night was something remarkable in its way. But what people have been engaged by is utter garbage from the campaigns. Remain or leave, we can't say that people have made a well-informed decision.BenedictWhite said:
No, because what has happened over the years is that the political classes have not bothered to engage with the voters, see for example this quote from a beeb man on Guido:Wanderer said:
It's the stuff of direct democracy. What it has done for me, more than anything, is bring home to me what a good idea representative democracy is.BenedictWhite said:
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?
David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…
“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”
The reality is that this engages people. That is important.
I would be happy if we never have another referendum. I wouldn't like to see Britain become like California, holding plebiscites for fun.0 -
So not really very large. I have a feeling regular qt gets that (and more). But figures top gear can only dream off these days ;-)Jonathan said:
Off the top of my head it peaked just over 4million.FrancisUrquhart said:
Do we know the viewing figures for it?Jonathan said:
The BBC took a real risk with the Wembley thing and to their credit pulled it off. Could have been BedlamSeanT said:
It's the worst debate yet. Feel sorry for Paxo. He's better than this.RodCrosby said:Oh I see, it's not about Europe.
It's about Jo Cox... and waycism, and everything...
No wonder Farage ducked this crap.
Surprised it wasn't more than that. BBC 1 prime time and all that.0 -
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This is similar to their earlier warning, but the area most likely to be most affected has extended westwards along the southern English coast to now take in Dorset.0 -
No, but if they can't get from work->home in time....SandyRentool said:
There can't be many folk who have to catch a train to reach their Polling Place.RobD said:
Still, I don't think it's cricket to have a strike which may affect people's ability to exercise their democratic right.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think that's the idea of strike action isn't it? Anyway, I think quite a few people will be more concerned about getting to and from work than with the EUref.RobD said:
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.Luckyguy1983 said:There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
And even if it is one person being affected, it's still wrong.0 -
I drew up a list who would be blamed by leavers if they lose, didn't put that one in.... takes all sorts.Luckyguy1983 said:As the PB consensus mostly agrees (?) Leave needed to be 10% ahead in the polls to win. The momentum is in our favour, but we're not there. Remain knew the momentum was with Leave, so despicably and utterly cynically used a brutal murder to derail the campaign for the required amount of time.
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Question for Leave Tories on here - would you stay in the party if Soubry became leader?0
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Switched back to C4 and golly Soubry is awful - bossy, finger pointy and overbearing.0
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They couldn't fit the name of the new party at the top, so they used 'tory' for shortScrapheap_as_was said:
hmm not top... tory careerist whose Eurosceptic... bollocks to that.PlatoSaid said: 0 -
Apparently I'm a Eurocrat according to that Guido quiz.
Really flawed test.0 -
I think that's optimistic. The Labour vote that is most likely to vote UKIP is the WWC one, while the metropolitan middle class one will vote Remain.weejonnie said:
I made it 51 - others made it 55. The unknown factor is the Nissan plant in Washington.Paristonda said:
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder.
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
Sunderland has quite a lot of traditional Labour - The polling was (in 2015)
Labour 50%
UKIP.....24%
Tories.. 20%
LibDems 6%
LEAVE = 24% + 30% X 50% + 60% X 20% = 51%
The good UKIP score being held back by the poor labour score. Any more than this and Leave look good - if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.
In other words, I'd expect a 50% Leave vote from Sunderland Labour, maybe more.0 -
Apologies if posted earlier
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-referendum-too-many-part-time-europeans-are-diluting-an-ever-closer-union-claims-jean-claude-a7095966.html
I was a eurosceptic remainer too.0 -
You didn't put in the Remain campaign? It's a view.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I drew up a list who would be blamed by leavers if they lose, didn't put that one in.... takes all sorts.Luckyguy1983 said:As the PB consensus mostly agrees (?) Leave needed to be 10% ahead in the polls to win. The momentum is in our favour, but we're not there. Remain knew the momentum was with Leave, so despicably and utterly cynically used a brutal murder to derail the campaign for the required amount of time.
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4million is not bad for a 2hr political debate programme and probably more than the winning margin.FrancisUrquhart said:
So not really very large. I have a feeling regular qt gets that (and more). But figures top gear can only dream off these days ;-)Jonathan said:
Off the top of my head it peaked just over 4million.FrancisUrquhart said:
Do we know the viewing figures for it?Jonathan said:
The BBC took a real risk with the Wembley thing and to their credit pulled it off. Could have been BedlamSeanT said:
It's the worst debate yet. Feel sorry for Paxo. He's better than this.RodCrosby said:Oh I see, it's not about Europe.
It's about Jo Cox... and waycism, and everything...
No wonder Farage ducked this crap.0 -
Watched it for less than a minute when Selina Scott got involved. Prefer the footballPlatoSaid said:Switched back to C4 and golly Soubry is awful - bossy, finger pointy and overbearing.
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Who's the black lady writer/Leaver?
She's fab.0 -
Well turn it off again then!PlatoSaid said:Switched back to C4 and golly Soubry is awful - bossy, finger pointy and overbearing.
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Did that cabbie just slander Uber?0
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Vote Leave to kick out Uber - Is that the future you want @rcs1000?0
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Really someone needs to tell Anna Soubry to STFU and let other people speak0
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After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.0 -
Apparently I'm an "expert", so i'm not going to listen to myself any longer.PlatoSaid said: 0 -
No. When I first saw her a few years ago, she seemed rather good, then she rapidly became rude, insulting and a caricature of Thatcher.tlg86 said:Question for Leave Tories on here - would you stay in the party if Soubry became leader?
This was before she came out for Remain. She's a female Soames. Boorish.0 -
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Agreed x100PlatoSaid said:
No. When I first saw her a few years ago, she seemed rather good, then she rapidly became rude, insulting and a caricature of Thatcher.tlg86 said:Question for Leave Tories on here - would you stay in the party if Soubry became leader?
This was before she came out for Remain. She's a female Soames. Boorish.0 -
There is a fan in the Ireland end with one goalkeepers glove on!!!0
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Soubry and her finger might explain Farage's tactical absence....SeanT said:How the fuck did Nick lose to Soubry. She's awful.
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How much of that portion of the Labour vote is actually now in the UKIP column though?rcs1000 said:
I think that's optimistic. The Labour vote that is most likely to vote UKIP is the WWC one, while the metropolitan middle class one will vote Remain.weejonnie said:
I made it 51 - others made it 55. The unknown factor is the Nissan plant in Washington.Paristonda said:
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder.
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
Sunderland has quite a lot of traditional Labour - The polling was (in 2015)
Labour 50%
UKIP.....24%
Tories.. 20%
LibDems 6%
LEAVE = 24% + 30% X 50% + 60% X 20% = 51%
The good UKIP score being held back by the poor labour score. Any more than this and Leave look good - if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.
In other words, I'd expect a 50% Leave vote from Sunderland Labour, maybe more.0 -
You are Ed Milliband and I claim my £5.Sean_F said:After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
...
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
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Audience "worm" moving sharply to Leave after Soubry fails to shut up.
Hannan doing very well as expected.0 -
I love uberwilliamglenn said:Vote Leave to kick out Uber - Is that the future you want @rcs1000?
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That's a massive call.Sean_F said:After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.0 -
LOL!MarqueeMark said:
Soubry and her finger might explain Farage's tactical absence....SeanT said:How the fuck did Nick lose to Soubry. She's awful.
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Does Katie Price drink Coppertone?
What a bizarre greasy looking tan.0 -
Switched over briefly from Versailles and Jordan now being interviewed in EU debate on C40
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Bring back Nick Palmer MP? At least he comes to PB bashes after all!SeanT said:The loathsome Anna Soubry losing votes with every nanosecond.
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Britain of course has quiet revolutions not violent ones, I hope we're about to set off on another one tomorrow.Sean_F said:After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.0 -
The only other thing to go on is anecdote, so if he's prefer us to analyse how close it seems based on that...TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/745714095953969152
Actually I agree with him though - I don't think it's that close either.
Agreed. The polls might be bollocks, of course, but the mood music suggests they are at least right it is close, or even underestimating things for Leave. Nothing but betting supports the alternate idea.Sean_F said:After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
.
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Oo er.TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457140959539691520 -
Whether you're a nervous Trot, a risk averse Tory, or simply a "don't know, won't go" type, as a Eurosceptic Remainer you'll find yourself alienating all your Brexit buddies and loathing your new Remain friends.
Whether or not your reluctance will give way to what you have wished for all your political life on Thursday remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure - the next few months are not going to be any easier...
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I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.0
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http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/guido-fawked-dont-drink-and-tweet.html?m=1PlatoSaid said:Who's the black lady writer/Leaver?
She's fab.0 -
I thought In would win the Sindy by 4% or so. I thought the Tories would win 285-290 seats.SeanT said:
Interesting. Valuable insight, ta. What is your track record btw? Serious question, did you call the GE or indyref, right?Sean_F said:After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
Few did, of course.0 -
Only because the Tories led most of the final polls and won undecideds and turned out more of their supporters than LabourTheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457140959539691520 -
Ch4 have managed to get a pretty decent celebrity audience. This is the kind of show that they should just let run until early in the morning like After Dark. We might actually get some interesting discussion after a few hours and everyone lets their guard down.0
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My predictions for Tyne and Wear and surrounding areas based upon feelings and perceived local attitudes:
Leave:
Sunderland
North Tyneside
South Tyneside
County Durham
Northumberland
Remain:
Newcastle upon Tyne
Gateshead
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Soubry bigger Tit than JordanHYUFD said:Switched over briefly from Versailles and Jordan now being interviewed in EU debate on C4
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Am I the only one wondering if Channel 4 put on a free bar since mid afternoon for this audience?0
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Soubry works tirelessly for the Leave cause.0
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? Yes it was. The Tories did some good targeting in marginal seats. That's not a strategy for a referendum. Every vote counts.TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457140959539691520 -
Difficult to say.Sean_F said:After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
I was out leafleting and there was a chap with his pickup and another dropping by. I gave a leaflet to the drop by who then went off on one about why he didn't vote so I carried on my way.
The argument seemed to be a bit heated and by the time I got back round drop by had gone and I appeared to be welcome.
The voters will speak tomorrow. There is something in the air.0 -
Look at his other tweets from the past few days, he's not expecting a Leave victorySeanT said:
That can be read two ways, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457140959539691520 -
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Distaste for Salmond was the key. I hope he can work his magic again.HYUFD said:
Only because the Tories led most of the final polls and won undecideds and turned out more of their supporters than LabourTheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457140959539691520 -
I will not listen to you either if that helps seal your expertnessbrokenwheel said: 0 -
That is hilarious!HYUFD said:0 -
I'd vote for Nick. Disagree with most of his politics but at least he is polite and courteous, qualities that one should look for in an MP. Soubry is just terrible.TOPPING said:I'd love the debate on here and the various allegiances if NPXMPX2 decided to fight Broxtowe again in 2020.
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Doubt she will be troubling page 3 anytime soon though....bigjohnowls said:
Soubry bigger Tit than JordanHYUFD said:Switched over briefly from Versailles and Jordan now being interviewed in EU debate on C4
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It's also a massive volte face! Let's just hope Sean F isn't forced to change his mind as the result of a dismal poll for LEAVE in less than half an hour's time.Casino_Royale said:
That's a massive call.Sean_F said:After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
1. The trend is your friend. Over 12 months, or over 3, the trend has been to Leave. In telephone polls, Remain led by 25-30%, then 10-15%, now perhaps 2% on average. Online polls have shown a lead of 10% or so for Remain moving into a small lead for Leave. But, online polls have constantly adjusted their workings to favour Remain. On their original workings, online polls would be putting Leave almost 10% clear. The Noise favours Remain sometimes. The Signal favours Leave.
2. Undecideds are breaking for Leave. The BES has gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 at the end of May.
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU.
Of course, I may be totally wrong.
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I got Eurocrat. Re-did the quiz to see what the other options were, but got Eurocrat againAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
'Eurosceptic Remainer', well I could have told them that.PlatoSaid said: 0 -
Well, in less than 36 hours we'll find out whether he's right or wrong. We shall have to compose ourselves in patience.TheScreamingEagles said:
Look at his other tweets from the past few days, he's not expecting a Leave victorySeanT said:
That can be read two ways, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457140959539691520 -
That's a terrible insult. Ban this man immediately!Jonathan said:
You are Ed Milliband and I claim my £5.Sean_F said:After panicking a couple of Nights ago, I now call it for Leave, perhaps by as much as 55/45. Why?
...
3. The mood favours Leave. People want to break from the old order. Leave have all the passion, Remain don't. Many people are emotionally committed to Leave; few to the EU. 0 -
No Sean. Remain's pollster wouldn't be so stupid as to take the piss of Remain like that.SeanT said:
That can be read two ways, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457140959539691520 -
And his response to a question about how he thinks it will go,TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/745714095953969152
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457160565644574720 -
The polls also got Scotland (2015) spot on, they got Corbyn spot on, they got Sadiq spot on...TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/7457140959539691520 -
Ooh, it's the empty suit and big watch trying badly to be a black Tony Blair.0
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Wikipedia says she was Independent. Voting for oneself does seem a little uncouth.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
A pollster, rubbishing polling?brokenwheel said:
And his response to a question about how he thinks it will go,TheScreamingEagles said:From Remain's pollster
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/745714095953969152
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/745716056564457472
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