politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead
Comments
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Ireland is playing superbly well.0
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My brother has just flown back from Germany tonight as he wants to vote Leave in person :-)PlatoSaid said:
You too James. That's why I vote in person - there's just something so tingly about it.JamesM said:Evening all.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
Have a good polling day everyone.0 -
Hip HipGIN1138 said:Three cheers for @Casino_Royale
Nice bloke too i remember him well from a PB meet0 -
I'm supporting the Casino Royale fan club. Well done, you've fought a great and perfectly mannered campaign.0
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Actually, I feel supremely relaxed. Calm. Serene. I think we could perhaps (just perhaps) be about to do something noble and special. Something we'll look back on one day and feel supremely proud of ourselves for. And, even more importantly, do the whole of Europe a great service in the cause of democracy in the process.kle4 said:
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.tyson said:It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
This isn't just rhetoric. Just look at how the closeness of this vote (alone) is causing some EU politicians, who've ignored reform for years, with sneering and contempt, to suddenly start becoming worried. To start thinking that *perhaps* they need to do something different. That perhaps some reform is needed.
That's the power of democracy.
And then you have Juncker, reverting to type, just as it looks like he might be safe from it.
If we can just hold our nerve for the next 26 hours we could (perhaps) change things forever.
Courage isn't about not being afraid. Everyone is a bit afraid. It's about doing the right thing even though you're afraid.
You can't get more courageous than that.0 -
Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
Hmm. They were pretty dramatically wrong last year. What was the Conservative seats mid-point on polling day?tyson said:
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.peter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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Are we perhaps all getting just a tad excited? Whoever wins tomorrow, it's unlikely anything dramatic I mean really dramatic, will happen on Friday, or next week, or next month or even next year.
I have held the view all along that whatever the outcome, we will never leave the EU, never.0 -
I quite agree. I just think your idea of the right thing is absolutely the wrong thing.Casino_Royale said:
Actually, I feel supremely relaxed. Calm. Serene. I think we could perhaps (just perhaps) be about to do something noble and special. Something we'll look back on one day and feel supremely proud of ourselves for. And, even more importantly, do the whole of Europe a great service in the cause of democracy in the process.kle4 said:
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.tyson said:It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
This isn't just rhetoric. Just look at how the closeness of this vote (alone) is causing some EU politicians, who've ignored reform for years, with sneering and contempt, to suddenly start becoming worried. To start thinking that *perhaps* they need to do something different. That perhaps some reform is needed.
That's the power of democracy.
And then you have Juncker, reverting to type, just as it looks like he might be safe from it.
If we can just hold our nerve for the next 26 hours we could (perhaps) change things forever.
Courage isn't about not being afraid. Everyone is a bit afraid. It's about doing the right thing even though you're afraid.
You can't get more courageous than that.0 -
Now that's class!Alanbrooke said:
My brother has just flown back from Germany tonight as he wants to vote Leave in person :-)PlatoSaid said:
You too James. That's why I vote in person - there's just something so tingly about it.JamesM said:Evening all.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
Have a good polling day everyone.
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Why doesn't the EU pay for HS2? It seems to pay for everyone else's infrastructure upgrades.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.0
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Crikey cripes! Looks like it's squeaky bum time for the establishment.
Keep the buggers on their toes is what I say!
A report from the front:
I am at the count in Mid Sussex tomorrow. Apparently due to report between 3 and 4 so as to be well in advance of the markets opening.
Word on the street.... My arse. Turnout here may well get above 80%. A lot of interest I'm told from people who have never voted before.
I note Betfair is still 'avin' a laugh with odds of 3.85 on the UK with 3 in England. I am on a better but that still has to be value.
Anyway, good luck everyone who is involved in working to campaign, regardless of what side you are on.
Oh and I do like Vote Leaves GOTV. (Not telling though....)0 -
The magnitude of the Leave vote matters too. If it's a 52:48, then the markets will consider EFTA/EEA as the likeliest option, and will sell sterling off less than if its 58:42, and Completely Out.Tim said:
Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures marketspeter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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Oops betting shifts lolrcs1000 said:
Am I a "betting shit"?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?
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I view financial experts who voice their opinion the same as I view horseracing tipsters.nunu said:Have a feeling "the experts" who are calling this for Remain have it wrong. No wonder people don't believe them.
If they're so clever why aren't they just quietly making a fortune on the financial markets instead of earning a living being a public expert?0 -
A live shot of Trump Force One landing as the result of Brexit is confirmed.RodCrosby said:Freggles said:
Is he still coming tomorrow?Casino_Royale said:Where's Trump?
He's cutting a ribbon at Turnberry on Friday morning.Freggles said:
Is he still coming tomorrow?Casino_Royale said:Where's Trump?
No word on his precise movements between now and then...
Trump steps off the plane. "Folks, if I'm President you're at the front of the queue. Believe me."
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I'll second that.Casino_Royale said:
I think we could perhaps (just perhaps) be about to do something noble and special. Something we'll look back on one day and feel supremely proud of ourselves for. And, even more importantly, do the whole of Europe a great service in the cause of democracy in the process.kle4 said:
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.tyson said:It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
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Most hedge fund managers start off on "the sell side" and graduate from there.DeClare said:
I view financial experts who voice their opinion the same as I view horseracing tipsters.nunu said:Have a feeling "the experts" who are calling this for Remain have it wrong. No wonder people don't believe them.
If they're so clever why aren't they just quietly making a fortune on the financial markets instead of earning a living being a public expert?
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I've bought some Red Bull too - just in case I start seriously flagging or getting too plonked and sleepy. I fell asleep during 0200-0500 in GE2010 and kicked myself.John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder
.
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But since he asked...Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Oops betting shifts lolrcs1000 said:
Am I a "betting shit"?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?
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The establishment is on both sides.BenedictWhite said:Crikey cripes! Looks like it's squeaky bum time for the establishment.
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Blue team beat red team and go crazy...
an omen.
https://twitter.com/marathonbet/status/7457032771243294720 -
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
We won’t really Leave (if we do) until June 2018, although we’ll be asked to do nothing “new” in the meantime, until the treaty terms have been worked out. When they are, of course, we might well find ourselves doing all sorts of “new" things without being consulted about them.peter_from_putney said:Are we perhaps all getting just a tad excited? Whoever wins tomorrow, it's unlikely anything dramatic I mean really dramatic, will happen on Friday, or next week, or next month or even next year.
I have held the view all along that whatever the outcome, we will never leave the EU, never.0 -
Maybe they finally realised that Farage is rated higher than Cameron and Osborne are?Luckyguy1983 said:
Farage not off-putting enough?Charles said:
Matt d'Ancona doing the same in the Standard. Must be the new linePlatoSaid said:On polling days, I usually miss all the political coverage. This time I'm looking forward to it.
And urgh, just looked at The Times for tomorrow - Aaronovitch is comparing Leavers to Enoch Powell.
I'll skip straight to the comments - they'll be fun.
After GE2010, ConHome revealed that the Conservative campaign made very little use of voter research to test messages and poll how voters reacted to key people. I wonder if Con/REMAIN have fallen back into that habit of not doing enough research? What else would explain their blindness to the relative ratings of Cameron, Osborne, Boris and Farage?
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Guessing, a pure guess that Comm Res have Leave at least 5% ahead. I voted Remain by post and would do so again tomorrow but you can sense the situation. It is all Leave. They could hit upper 50% bracket particularly if it pours down in London tomorrow. But it is what is going to happen from Friday and over the weekend. The financial and political fall outs could be gi-normous. We will be in a new world. Theresa May to hold things together?0
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Steady there Smithson.rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
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Certainly, back in the day in the FCO, that is how we described most proposals from our EU colleagues.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
Methinks this is good for leave-1 -
What are the odds of a Labour government in the next few years? Leave does mean renationalisation, and we'll be lucky if it's just the railways.rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?Wanderer said:
I quite agree. I just think your idea of the right thing is absolutely the wrong thing.Casino_Royale said:
Actually, I feel supremely relaxed. Calm. Serene. I think we could perhaps (just perhaps) be about to do something noble and special. Something we'll look back on one day and feel supremely proud of ourselves for. And, even more importantly, do the whole of Europe a great service in the cause of democracy in the process.kle4 said:
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.tyson said:It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
This isn't just rhetoric. Just look at how the closeness of this vote (alone) is causing some EU politicians, who've ignored reform for years, with sneering and contempt, to suddenly start becoming worried. To start thinking that *perhaps* they need to do something different. That perhaps some reform is needed.
That's the power of democracy.
And then you have Juncker, reverting to type, just as it looks like he might be safe from it.
If we can just hold our nerve for the next 26 hours we could (perhaps) change things forever.
Courage isn't about not being afraid. Everyone is a bit afraid. It's about doing the right thing even though you're afraid.
You can't get more courageous than that.
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Have volunteered to do knocking up for Leave tomorrow evening.Apparently although no local canvass return info there is quite a sophisticated computer with relevant information sufficient to make knocking up worthwhile. Interested to hear what others are doing.0
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I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder.
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?0 -
When the whole campaign has been about immigration how on earth could a PM do a deal that involved free movement? It's surely inconceivable and Ukip would be back in the game when a Leave vote should have shot their fox.rcs1000 said:
The magnitude of the Leave vote matters too. If it's a 52:48, then the markets will consider EFTA/EEA as the likeliest option, and will sell sterling off less than if its 58:42, and Completely Out.Tim said:
Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures marketspeter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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They (betting markets) called the direction of travel- I think they had the Tories at circa 290 seats, well ahead of Labour. As too in 1992- they had the Tories as the largest party.Wanderer said:
Hmm. They were pretty dramatically wrong last year. What was the Conservative seats mid-point on polling day?tyson said:
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.peter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
For Brexit to win, the political markets would all need to have called the direction of travel wrong- all of them. This has never happened in the history of political betting markets....not just here, but everywhere.
The only election which I can recall where the betting markets were genuinely baffled by which way it would go was the 2006 Italian GE which was eventually won by Prodi by a whisker. The betting markets tomorrow don't even say it is going to be that close.
But, that said, suckers, there could be a first.
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There will be pockets here and pockets there with people signalling the appropriate virtue all of the place. It's down to the wire!NickPalmer said:Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Exciting no? 0 -
I do wonder just how many people taking the stickers are eligable to vote...NickPalmer said:Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
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Thank you all for your very kind words :-)
Now, i must be off. Before my wife divorces me.
Laterz.0 -
That same Labour government would equally be trying to join the disaster that is the Euro. "Starting the conversation" or "getting the debate going". All those old tricks.williamglenn said:
What are the odds of a Labour government in the next few years? Leave does mean renationalisation, and we'll be lucky if it's just the railways.rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
You mean repatriation not renationalisation. Most franchises seem to be partially or wholly owned by nationalised foreign railways. It seems odd that the German government is allowed to run our railways but not our government because governments are inefficient at running railways....rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
That put a very big smile on my face.Scrapheap_as_was said:Blue team beat red team and go crazy...
an omen.
https://twitter.com/marathonbet/status/745703277124329472
PS It is almost, not quite but almost, worth England losing just to see the reaction then. But maybe we shouldn't wish that on him - it would probably entail a visit to the ICU for treatment.0 -
FWIW Remain and Leave both outside Kings Cross tonight. Official and unofficial campaigns represented.
At Victoria just the usual Southern Trains chaos. If any campaign promised Govia losing the franchise they would sweep the South.0 -
That's going to be a lot of Leave campaigners if Leave surge ahead 2am-3am Friday..Scrapheap_as_was said:Blue team beat red team and go crazy...
an omen.
https://twitter.com/marathonbet/status/745703277124329472 0 -
Leave vote odds have lengthened on Hills - now 13/5, was 12/5 a few hours ago.0
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Apparently 53-47 to Leave in Sunderland is supposed on demographics to mean 50/50 overall.Paristonda said:
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder.
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
But it might be closer there due to Japanese car factory - or it might not.0 -
you know you want to.... were v cuddly in a manly way.El_Dave said:
Steady there Smithson.rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
No, it won't be of the Blairite variety.Pauly said:
That same Labour government would equally be trying to join the disaster that is the Euro. "Starting the conversation" or "getting the debate going". All those old tricks.williamglenn said:
What are the odds of a Labour government in the next few years? Leave does mean renationalisation, and we'll be lucky if it's just the railways.rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
The Germans are notoriously efficient.RochdalePioneers said:
You mean repatriation not renationalisation. Most franchises seem to be partially or wholly owned by nationalised foreign railways. It seems odd that the German government is allowed to run our railways but not our government because governments are inefficient at running railways....rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
pick pockets?BenedictWhite said:
There will be pockets here and pockets there with people signalling the appropriate virtue all of the place. It's down to the wire!NickPalmer said:Central London buzzing with Remain campaigners - people at each crossroads in Soho handing out "In" lapel stickers, with lots of takers - generally upbeat atmosphere. But obviously may just be a local bubble.
Exciting no?0 -
It's the stuff of direct democracy. What it has done for me, more than anything, is bring home to me what a good idea representative democracy is.BenedictWhite said:
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?0 -
Btw do Pollsters down weight C2/DE responses from their proportion of the population to the proportion of voters? If so then Leave could be several points further ahead than polls suggest, as they may have (a) found something that they really want to vote for and (b) their vote actually counts. So they'll turn out at a rate much higher than usual.0
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SeanT said:
Come come, tyson. Are you claiming you're serene and calm, as you look forward to the inevitable REMAIN win?tyson said:
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.peter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
A week ago you flounced off the site in despair, saying you couldn't stand the anxiety.
I've given my prediction...I cannot call it.
I am just using the betting markets now to wind the fuck out of you Brexiters; to piss on your love in parade the night before. I am the youngest child from a large family.... if you couldn't work out how to wind up your older siblings you would have been ignored throughout your childhood.0 -
Paxo & Co on CH4...
Did he just say "500 will be voting Remain, 50 voting Leave"?0 -
There is. Can't say more, Mums the word.PrinceofTaranto said:Have volunteered to do knocking up for Leave tomorrow evening.Apparently although no local canvass return info there is quite a sophisticated computer with relevant information sufficient to make knocking up worthwhile. Interested to hear what others are doing.
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pound on the rise..0
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one or two them are that... 24/7....CornishBlue said:
That's going to be a lot of Leave campaigners if Leave surge ahead 2am-3am Friday..Scrapheap_as_was said:Blue team beat red team and go crazy...
an omen.
https://twitter.com/marathonbet/status/7457032771243294720 -
53% leave is touch and go, 55% or more for a prize I'm told.Paristonda said:
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder.
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?0 -
You really like upsetting the Remainers here lo,Chameleon said:Btw do Pollsters down weight C2/DE responses from their proportion of the population to the proportion of voters? If so then Leave could be several points further ahead than polls suggest, as they may have (a) found something that they really want to vote for and (b) their vote actually counts. So they'll turn out at a rate much higher than usual.
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C4 debate now0
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Anne Widdecombe for Leave...PlatoSaid said:C4 debate now
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If we vote Leave there will be tears, either from the Kippers who will find out immigrants still come here, or from team EFTA, or from Labour Leave when we get a right wing Boris government. Too many contradictory agendas.0
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No mention of Farage dropping out.0
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Arnold Schwarzenegger,Joseph Haydn,Johann Strauss, Niki Lauda,Franz Ferdinand, Georg von Trapp.Scrapheap_as_was said:Blue team beat red team and go crazy...
an omen.
https://twitter.com/marathonbet/status/745703277124329472
Your boys took a hell of a beating?0 -
0
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Mozart, Sigmund Freud, Franz Josef, Archduke Ferdinand, your boys took one hell of a beating.MTimT said:
That put a very big smile on my face.Scrapheap_as_was said:Blue team beat red team and go crazy...
an omen.
https://twitter.com/marathonbet/status/745703277124329472
PS It is almost, not quite but almost, worth England losing just to see the reaction then. But maybe we shouldn't wish that on him - it would probably entail a visit to the ICU for treatment.0 -
Oh I see, it's not about Europe.
It's about Jo Cox... and waycism, and everything...
No wonder Farage ducked this crap.0 -
Highly likely in my view. Post-Brexit we'll be in uncharted territory, with PM Boris being the very personification of the most risky political/economic decision a nation has made in modern times. There will be no hiding place for him or the Tories. 2020 might make 1997 look like a slap on the wrist in comparison.williamglenn said:
What are the odds of a Labour government in the next few years? Leave does mean renationalisation, and we'll be lucky if it's just the railways.rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)0 -
Could they really not find somebody...erhhh...well...relevant.williamglenn said:
Anne Widdecombe for Leave...PlatoSaid said:C4 debate now
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No, because what has happened over the years is that the political classes have not bothered to engage with the voters, see for example this quote from a beeb man on Guido:Wanderer said:
It's the stuff of direct democracy. What it has done for me, more than anything, is bring home to me what a good idea representative democracy is.BenedictWhite said:
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?
David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…
“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”
The reality is that this engages people. That is important.0 -
If the out option was EEA/EFTA I would also be relaxed about it. Indeed, if that had been pre-negotiated I might vote for it. But I think that the outcome of Leave is far less predictable. There's going to be a lot of opposition to keeping free movement.SeanT said:
I'm oddly serene as well. That's possibly because the referendum is win-win for me.
My big fear was a massive REMAIN win - 60/40 or worse - and Britain doomed to vassalage in a newly-confident Euro-empire. UGH. All those gloating Europhiles in the Guardian. UGH!!!! Polly Toynbee and Michael Heseltine chortling!! UGH UGH UGH
That outcome is now essentially impossible, and for me we two three other outcomes, which all have their advantages.
Narrow REMAIN means I do well financially - London surges, property prices go back up, and the EU havs been served notice.
Narrow LEAVE and we quit the EU but enter the EEA/EFTA. The hit to the economy will be small. And we will be out the EU. And everyone on the Guardian will cry for a month. Yay.
I discount a Big LEAVE. Most unlikely.0 -
Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.0 -
I'm going to switch back to the football!0
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Harold Wilson was 1/4 to win the 1970 General Election, but thanks to a string of narrow wins in marginal seats across the midlands, Ted Heath won.tyson said:
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.peter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's how we ended up in the EU.0 -
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And I've turned C4 off.0
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Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!TheScreamingEagles said:Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.0 -
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Spot privatisation:RochdalePioneers said:
You mean repatriation not renationalisation. Most franchises seem to be partially or wholly owned by nationalised foreign railways. It seems odd that the German government is allowed to run our railways but not our government because governments are inefficient at running railways....rcs1000 said:
If Leave means renationalisation, you might be about to push me back into the Remain camp.RochdalePioneers said:Vote Leave! Because privatised railways are expensive shite and the EU is about to force British shite on the rest of Europe.
(My epic trip of eternity to Croydon this afternoon may have something to do with my mood on this subject)
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Widdecombe and Mensch for Leave, oh dear0
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There are always tears about something. Given that the twitter sphere seems to exist only on the outer limits of hyperbole, it'll just be something else to be 'outraged' or 'appalled' or 'furious' about.Freggles said:If we vote Leave there will be tears, either from the Kippers who will find out immigrants still come here, or from team EFTA, or from Labour Leave when we get a right wing Boris government. Too many contradictory agendas.
I predict a mid-twenty first century epidemic as a million social media warriors hit middle age and die due to an excess of choler in their blood.0 -
Hmmm, Joe Hart tried to do an impersonation of Peter Bonetti, but it wasn't enough to stop us going through.DeClare said:
Harold Wilson was 1/4 to win the 1970 General Election, but thanks to a string of narrow wins in marginal seats across the midlands, Ted Heath won.tyson said:
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.peter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
That's how we ended up in the EU.0 -
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morningRobD said:
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!TheScreamingEagles said:Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.0 -
There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.0
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But no AV thread?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morningRobD said:
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!TheScreamingEagles said:Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
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Because the deal must satisfy 51% of the population, not 51% of Leave voters.FrankBooth said:
When the whole campaign has been about immigration how on earth could a PM do a deal that involved free movement? It's surely inconceivable and Ukip would be back in the game when a Leave vote should have shot their fox.rcs1000 said:
The magnitude of the Leave vote matters too. If it's a 52:48, then the markets will consider EFTA/EEA as the likeliest option, and will sell sterling off less than if its 58:42, and Completely Out.Tim said:
Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures marketspeter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
I think whatever is agreed must be confirmed by referendum.
I'd also point out that there are various degrees of free movement.0 -
Oh dear! Bless Ann, let's hope she does well.Freggles said:Widdecombe and Mensch for Leave, oh dear
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I made it 51 - others made it 55. The unknown factor is the Nissan plant in Washington.Paristonda said:
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!)John_M said:PlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder.
Question for PBers: What % victories do we need to see for Leave in Sunderland, in order to know whether Remain or Leave are on track to win?
Sunderland has quite a lot of traditional Labour - The polling was (in 2015)
Labour 50%
UKIP.....24%
Tories.. 20%
LibDems 6%
LEAVE = 24% + 30% X 50% + 60% X 20% = 51%
The good UKIP score being held back by the poor labour score. Any more than this and Leave look good - if it reaches 55% then Labour traditional are voting Leave and the game is up.0 -
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.Luckyguy1983 said:There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
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Yvette drowning here0
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Will be a very quiet graveyard shift for you I'm sure...TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morningRobD said:
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!TheScreamingEagles said:Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day. 0 -
tyson said:SeanT said:
Come come, tyson. Are you claiming you're serene and calm, as you look forward to the inevitable REMAIN win?tyson said:
It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.peter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
A week ago you flounced off the site in despair, saying you couldn't stand the anxiety.
I've given my prediction...I cannot call it.
I am just using the betting markets now to wind the fuck out of you Brexiters; to piss on your love in parade the night before. I am the youngest child from a large family.... if you couldn't work out how to wind up your older siblings you would have been ignored throughout your childhood. Add alcohol and biscuits, and that's a plan! 0 -
It has engaged people and I agree that's a good thing. The audience last night was something remarkable in its way. But what people have been engaged by is utter garbage from the campaigns. Remain or leave, we can't say that people have made a well-informed decision.BenedictWhite said:
No, because what has happened over the years is that the political classes have not bothered to engage with the voters, see for example this quote from a beeb man on Guido:Wanderer said:
It's the stuff of direct democracy. What it has done for me, more than anything, is bring home to me what a good idea representative democracy is.BenedictWhite said:
Is this not the stuff of democracy though? We have it out, we make the case and then the electorate decide?
David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…
“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”
The reality is that this engages people. That is important.
I would be happy if we never have another referendum. I wouldn't like to see Britain become like California, holding plebiscites for fun.0 -
I'm toying with an AV thread.RobD said:
But no AV thread?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be on PB around 9.30pm tomorrow, I'm your editor of PB fron 9.59pm Thursday until 6.30am Friday morningRobD said:
Do touch base with us lazy buggers on here throughout the day!TheScreamingEagles said:Just completed what might be my final ever canvassing session.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory, but both sides are in effect basing their hopes on a segment of voters that don't usually turn out, but my confidence is based on the Labour heartlands not being quite so pro-Leave as has been reported.
Do your worse ComRes/YouGov and Ipsos Mori tomorrow morning.
I'm off to see the midnight showing of Independence Day sequel, tomorrow's going to be a long day.
What would the result of the EURef be if it was conducted under AV with the following options.
a) Remain
b) Leave
c) EEA Option0 -
I think that's the idea of strike action isn't it? Anyway, I think quite a few people will be more concerned about getting to and from work than with the EUref.RobD said:
Just how did they let that happen? Surely you shouldn't be allowed to strike on this of all days.Luckyguy1983 said:There is a Rail Strike tomorrow here in Scotland. Likely to have a slightly negative effect on turnout I would think.
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Most shambolic 'debate' I've ever seen on TV.0
