politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead
Only a few hours to go and two more online polls, Opinium and TNS, are reporting LEAVE leads. This means that the latest surveys from all the online pollsters covering the referendum now have leads for LEAVE.
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First .... again!0
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2nd like Boris...
God knows where Farage will come. Perhaps the Leave campaign have finally realised...
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=father+jack+gobshite+on+the+telly&&view=detail&mid=600A643E950CD8C1E3CB600A643E950CD8C1E3CB&FORM=VRDGAR0 -
LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.0
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https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=father+jack+'yes'&&view=detail&mid=C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64&rvsmid=C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64&fsscr=0&FORM=VDFSRVpeter_from_putney said:LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.
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Rather exciting isn't it?
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Guessing more insider trading on the News at 10 poll.peter_from_putney said:LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.
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Glorious seventh!0
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Remain is the new Rubio.peter_from_putney said:LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.
(maybe)0 -
I had to cancel a meeting to do with the receipt of EU finding that had been scheduled for 24 June. Most annoying.PlatoSaid said:
Imagine the scenes if we leave - crowds pulling down/setting fire to This Was Paid For By The EU signsRobD said:
Just imagine the scenes.. the Queen being crowned Empress of Europe in the new capital of the European Community - LondonCasino_Royale said:
You're giving me the horn.RodCrosby said:Swedish MEP praying for a domino effect if Britain Leaves...
OK then, we may start EU-II...
British Values, British Law. Who's in?
The UK genuinely leading Europe? Who'd vote for that?
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Robert Peston been seen in any bookies this evening?0
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It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.0
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Has anyone checked OGH's twitter..........*innocent face*SeanT said:
3.95 now.Scrapheap_as_was said:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=father+jack+'yes'&&view=detail&mid=C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64&rvsmid=C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64&fsscr=0&FORM=VDFSRVpeter_from_putney said:LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.
Something has leaked.0 -
Short the poundRobD said:
Has anyone checked OGH's twitter..........*innocent face*SeanT said:
3.95 now.Scrapheap_as_was said:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=father+jack+'yes'&&view=detail&mid=C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64&rvsmid=C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64C12A51753FB2C2DF4D64&fsscr=0&FORM=VDFSRVpeter_from_putney said:LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.
Something has leaked. 0 -
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.0 -
I love that BMG poll. 10 point lead for Leave AND a 7 point lead for Remain. Top shelf.0
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FPT
Jeez, disappear for two hours to find SIX PAGES of new posts. Is anyone with a job actually keeping up with PB for the last week?
On the subject of the plane from earlier, it was definitely a twin engined plane, and will have been under ATC command flying directly above the river. They would have had to get lots of permissions for the flight, and one needs a commercial licence for banner towing. There's not a cat in hell's chance they just decided to fly over a crowd at a rally, messing around really isn't tolerated by the CAA (Civil Aviation Authority, or Campaign Against Aviation as anyone who's ever dealt with them will attest!).
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After Sunderland and WandsworthCasino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
WE WILL KNOW !0 -
Farage cites 'family reasons'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3654977/Nigel-Farage-pulls-Channel-4-s-EU-referendum-debate-just-hour-start.html0 -
What time are they?Pulpstar said:
After Sunderland and WandsworthCasino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
WE WILL KNOW !0 -
It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Although there are quite a few Brexit poster here that I quite like, quirky and charming and willing to engage, there are some obsessive, blinkered, narrow minded and utterly repulsive types (you know who you are) that I will take a great deal of pleasure in their misery come Friday.0 -
Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?0
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Sounds plausible - they'll be a reaction that even if the stupids have gone more for Leave than thought, the Remain areas will be stronger for Remain than thought.Casino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
Sounds like opportunity time. But I'll still be counting - got to earn that extra £150
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No - probably people with money trying to bet on a certainty (based on their own narrow social grouping) after having had their chateaubriand, eton mess and champagne dinners - washed down with Pimms - in other words EU bureaucrats.FrancisUrquhart said:
Guessing more insider trading on the News at 10 poll.peter_from_putney said:LEAVE's odds lengthening again - back out to 3.75 (11/4) with several bookies.
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FPT
When I last met up with you and Mike and the others for the last PB pub meet, I told my mum I was meeting a bunch of friends at a Japanese restaurant near Liverpool Street.AlastairMeeks said:@SeanT That's why I keep my political thoughts for here. That way I have no need to feel abashed or contrite.
Most of my friends and family have no real idea of my parallel existence here. Just as well all round, I'd say.
So, when I finally left The Shooting Star, I turned left into Bishopsgate and called at Wasabi to pick up a nice Tofu Curry 0 -
Where's Trump?0
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The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a differenceCasino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.0 -
some do. Opinium does for example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a differenceCasino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.0 -
LOL! That's fighting talk!tyson said:It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
Although there are quite a few Brexit poster here that I quite like, quirky and charming and willing to engage, there are some obsessive, blinkered, narrow minded and utterly repulsive types (you know who you are) that I will take a great deal of pleasure in their misery come Friday. 0 -
Farage absented himself for *family reasons* according to Standard journo0
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The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?0
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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means0 -
Not sure. Scotland and particularly Quebec suggest otherwise. Maybe. Who knows!!kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
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A message from the Conservative party:
"Dear Member
There will be a Vigil in memory of Jo Cox, the M.P. who was so tragically killed last week. It is being organised by St. Mary`s Church and will be at 1.p.m. in the Market Square, Stafford tomorrow (Thursday) – a week to both the time and date since she died. If any of you are in Stafford you might like to join the Vigil."
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24 hours and 90 minutes to save
the EU projectDave!0 -
0
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Surely not on polling day?frpenkridge said:A message from the Conservative party:
"Dear Member
There will be a Vigil in memory of Jo Cox, the M.P. who was so tragically killed last week. It is being organised by St. Mary`s Church and will be at 1.p.m. in the Market Square, Stafford tomorrow (Thursday) – a week to both the time and date since she died. If any of you are in Stafford you might like to join the Vigil."0 -
First if it is 'family reasons', I want to say I hope it's nothing unfortunate health-wise for any of his family..Paul_Bedfordshire said:Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?
It is however an unfortunate development for his side as inevitably we now wonder why and if there's 'political' reasons of some form and all sorts of speculation will surely arise as to the motives.0 -
It means it's crapbigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
Hyped polls always are. 0 -
Is he still coming tomorrow?Casino_Royale said:Where's Trump?
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Coming on Friday.Casino_Royale said:Where's Trump?
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Confusing but does it matter, only 32 hours to make them all redundantDanSmith said:
some do. Opinium does for example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The polls do not include Northen Ireland, Gibraltar and the expats as far as I know. If so will that make a differenceCasino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.0 -
I'm guessing big Remain lead then given the betting?bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means0 -
Have a feeling "the experts" who are calling this for Remain have it wrong. No wonder people don't believe them.0
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are we using the right metric from the bookies though.
If the average remainer is betting twice the value of the average leaver and the remainers are the rich ones wouldnt the individual number of bets on each side be a better comparison since one side cant afford to bet as much as the other ?
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Perhaps for the last time:
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/7253390576691650580 -
@Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.Casino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
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Crouching tiger, hidden Juncker?Casino_Royale said:General Boles foretold, and it was true:
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/7433592878257315840 -
The general direction has been towards Leave both online and on phone, apart from a noticeable wobble in the aftermath of the murder of Jo Cox.
Some Remaindermen are pinning their hopes on people swaying back to the status quo in the voting booth.
My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.0 -
Farage not off-putting enough?Charles said:
Matt d'Ancona doing the same in the Standard. Must be the new linePlatoSaid said:On polling days, I usually miss all the political coverage. This time I'm looking forward to it.
And urgh, just looked at The Times for tomorrow - Aaronovitch is comparing Leavers to Enoch Powell.
I'll skip straight to the comments - they'll be fun.0 -
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
Methinks this is good for leave0 -
Sunil_Prasannan said:
Perhaps for the last time:
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058
What do you mean: last time?
After we Brexit, that will be our new logo.
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Aww, cheers mate. I am genuinely touched.Jonathan said:
@Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.Casino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
Really kind of you to say that.0 -
Honestly, the more Leave look like winning the more nervous I become, as it transfers my analysis of the best decision from abstract to reality. I cannot hide from the consequences like in a GE, where I know the result in my constituency 5 years in advance.tyson said:It's the hope that is going to kill you, Brexiters.
I said this morning it came down to whether I think the price of leaving is significant enough to outweigh being stuck in an organisation that is heading in a direction we don't like and which is not going to change (with the negative effects for them and us that would entail), and that's still the case.
I've also been trying to apply the Wollaston test - how would I feel, truly feel, if I get out the count on Friday morning (or more likely see from reactions in the hall) that we have voted to leave?
The truth is I would feel anxious about what the future was going to hold. But if it was Remain I'd feel disappointed about what the future was going to hold. That's not easy.
It's not a bad idea, the EU. It;s a nice dream. And they want us to remain. Or rather, they want the dream of us to remain, not the obstructive, difficult real version of us to remain. Having such dreams is good, but after so long, maybe, despite the risks, it's time to accept the dream isn't going to become real?
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Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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I just think it's gonna be very close!MarkHopkins said:Sunil_Prasannan said:Perhaps for the last time:
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058
What do you mean: last time?
After we Brexit, that will be our new logo.0 -
FPT (sigh):
It was the EHCR itself who ruled against it, saying that as the EU was not a country, it could not be a signatory.Richard_Tyndall said:
No implications at all. There was a move up until a year or more ago to make the EU a signatory to the ECHR and to try to standardise rulings. That would have meant that as long as one stayed in the EU one was bound by the ECHR - at least that would have been the eventual aim. The ECJ (I believe) ruled against this so the two institutions (EU and ECHR remain completely separate).John_M said:
As immigration isn't a big deal for me (while appreciating it's a fecking colossal deal for others), what are the implications for our relationship with the ECHR?Richard_Tyndall said:
As I said earlier I am almost 100% certain we cannot use the emergency brake in the way you believe. If we join EFTA and stay in the EEA then we are accepting that - with the exception of the rules on benefits which may well be significant - we cannot do much more about immigration than we can now.Casino_Royale said:
No, because we *can* use an emergency brake and EU citizens won't have quite the same rights (as Robert pointed out)OllyT said:
That's been the plan along I suspect, the angry anti-immigration voters will prove to have just been the cannon fodder, the useful idiots that got Leave over the line. They will be ignored after tomorrow. Totally deceitful strategy of course but very clever nevertheless.Casino_Royale said:
Nothing different to what we've heard from the Remain campaign for months. Right down to Putin.Pulpstar said:Didn't fit into 1 post.
We'll get EEA-EFTA if it's a narrow Leave vote and I'd be very happy with that.
I think it will be "sellable" that if it's a narrow Leave mandate, the votes simply aren't there to justify a full clean break (they might be if Leave won 65/35) and we can always reassess the relationship in 10-15 years time.
An informal poll of my long-suffering relatives indicated that they perceive that we have difficulty ejecting EU citizens who've committed criminal acts. My initial thought was this was actually perception vs reality....then realized I have no idea. Thoughts?
If the UK wanted to Leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then being inside or outside the EU makes no difference. Nor does being inside or outside EFTA/EEA0 -
Mensch is on the C4 show too... TFFT should mean twitter isn't swamped for a bit.0
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Or "oh bad luck" .....when it comes to rude Chinese officialsPaul_Bedfordshire said:
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
Methinks this is good for leave
I have to say that comment was legendary.0 -
Evening all.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
Have a good polling day everyone.0 -
I think you are probably right about the timing of that. Could give rise to some nice betting opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.0 -
Maybe Twitter paid her to get off her phone for a few mins?Scrapheap_as_was said:Mencsh is on the C4 show too... TFFT should mean twitter isn't swamped for a bit.
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Rich punters not believing people can be so stupid.CornishBlue said:
Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:DeClare said:
My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
"If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"
You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.0 -
Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
Methinks this is good for leave0 -
My Boringness filter tells me Remain will win because it's the boring option. That's all I got.0
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And there goes me reaching for the off button....Scrapheap_as_was said:Mensch is on the C4 show too... TFFT should mean twitter isn't swamped for a bit.
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Am I a "betting shit"?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Could these betting shits be anything to do with Fargle pulling out?
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Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
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I don't think they pushed the idea that Remain isn't a vote for the status quo hard enough.El_Dave said:
I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:DeClare said:
My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.
"If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"
You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.0 -
Hannan is on too.Scrapheap_as_was said:Mensch is on the C4 show too... TFFT should mean twitter isn't swamped for a bit.
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You can simplify it to 'Leave Britain'.MarkHopkins said:Sunil_Prasannan said:Perhaps for the last time:
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/725339057669165058
What do you mean: last time?
After we Brexit, that will be our new logo.
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I have literally no idea what will happen tomorrow. I don't recall ever being so flummoxed.
Both sides are relying on extremely unreliable allies to carry them over the line.0 -
Regarding price movements ahead of touted polls, I suspect what goes on is not leaking of the poll (as often they don't actually justify the movement when they are published) so much as people betting on what they think the poll will say and trying to get ahead of whatever movement it will bring.0
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I seem to recall that they came up with a similar description for an earlier poll and when it emerged it was as dull as dishwater, or am I confusing them with YouGov perhaps?bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means0 -
You too James. That's why I vote in person - there's just something so tingly about it.JamesM said:Evening all.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
I will vote Leave tomorrow with a sense of hope for the future. Leaving the EU is no immediate panacea, but it represents the starting step in the process of boosting our country's democracy.
Whichever way you vote tomorrow, thank you for having your say. I'll be up early to leaflet for Vote Leave in Coventry.
Have a good polling day everyone.0 -
Go and find a room you two.Casino_Royale said:
Aww, cheers mate. I am genuinely touched.Jonathan said:
@Casino_Royale win or lose you've been one of the PB heroes of this campaign. Totally blow away the caricatures of the Leave supporter. I have found you conscientious and consistent, despite putting up with more than your fair share of abuse.Casino_Royale said:
If it is Leave, I don't think the odds will start to come in seriously until we get some serious results (i.e. Sunderland)kle4 said:It doesn't matter if another poll had Remain ahead as far as I'm concerned. I could be wrong, of course - I was wrong at the GE and SindyRefr - but I feel if the overall picture looks 50/50 in the polls, then Leave have the edge by a couple of points at least, as their support is firmer in likelihood to vote and demographics.
Even then, there'll be some who don't want to believe it, and it might not become favourite until c.4am.
If (huge if) Leave do have a small lead.
With the fence still annoying rammed up my backside tonight, if I do jump to leave, you will have played a big part in that.
Really kind of you to say that.
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what happened to Trump coming over? did he come over and keep quiet or did he cancel the trip? i've seen nothing about it either way?
Edit: Just seen in comments upthread that he's coming Friday now apparently?? Comments coming too fast to follow them all!0 -
Only two phone polls have REMAIN winning?0
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PlatoSaid said:
Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”. I have actually bought some booze (I never drink at home, this is momentous!), and set expectations that I'll be pulling and all-nighter. Sadly, at my venerable age, that means I'll be wrecked for days.
Like many of us, I feel the hand of History on my shoulder
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Three cheers for @Casino_Royale0
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Trump, keep quiet? Have you gone mad?Paristonda said:what happened to Trump coming over? did he come over and keep quiet or did he cancel the trip? i've seen nothing about it either way?
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Favourites get beaten every day, the odds on Brexit are roughly the same on Trump winning, some people bet on what they want to happen rather than on which option represents the best value.CornishBlue said:
Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
Leave is the sensible bet at these prices.0 -
because 13% are still undecided?CornishBlue said:
Then why are the betting markets telling a completely different story?!theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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I think it's on Friday.Paristonda said:what happened to Trump coming over? did he come over and keep quiet or did he cancel the trip? i've seen nothing about it either way?
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That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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That's my prediction now....well very, very, very, very close.NoEasyDay said:
Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
Methinks this is good for leave
I think all the idealism that you Brexiters are changing the world (you doe eyed fools) will be equally and perfectly matched by people who do not want to see the UK impoverished.
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1997 was my first general election and I voted New Labour. It was an exciting experience but for me, this is much, much bigger.JamesM said:Evening all.
As I walked back to my car from a work function I felt a calmness in the air and it fully struck home to me how momentous an occasion tomorrow is in the history of our country. Regardless of the result, this referendum has been a huge event.
I always feel a sense of duty on my walk to the polling station, but this vote makes a General Election feel like small fry. Perhaps those voters walking to the polling stations in 1997 felt like this; I don't know.
This really is a "once in a lifetime" moment to shape the countries long term destiny....
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Hip, hip, hooray!GIN1138 said:Three cheers for @Casino_Royale
Hip, hip, hooray!
Hip, hip, hooray!
And don't forget the champagne..... fzzzzzzz!
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? I delivered some leaflets the other day "countries set to join the EU" with the EU external border being extended to Syria and Iraq.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't think they pushed the idea that Remain isn't a vote for the status quo hard enough.El_Dave said:
I think one of Leave's most effective lines is:DeClare said:
My personal opinion is that the Remain vote is soft among traditional Labour voters, not the Guardianistas or Twitterers but normal people who disproportionally won't turnout.
I see turnout of around 66% and 51% Leave.
"If we weren't already a member of the EU, would you vote to join? If you wouldn't, vote Leave"
You put the question like that, and all doubt evaporates.
I'd say they've been pressing the dangers of Remain pretty hard.
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class="Quote" rel="Casino_Royale">Where's Trump?
Is he still coming tomorrow?
He's cutting a ribbon at Turnberry on Friday morning.
No word on his precise movements between now and then...0 -
impoverished?tyson said:
That's my prediction now....well very, very, very, very close.NoEasyDay said:
Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
Methinks this is good for leave
I think all the idealism that you Brexiters are changing the world (you doe eyed fools) will be equally and perfectly matched by people who do not want to see the UK impoverished.
That is not as bad as WW3.
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Or, in the event of Brexit, the pound won't actually fall 15% and will really only fall 5-10%. In which case we shouldn't expect to see massive movements in the futures marketspeter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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It would be the first time the betting markets were unanimously this wrong (by a big margin too) about the outcome of a political event (including 1992 and 2015)......but since you Brexiters are clinging onto hope, there could always be a first time.peter_from_putney said:
That's not what the currency futures and stock market projections are suggesting is about to happen. They could be wrong of course, but usually they aren't.theakes said:The TNS poll gives a 7% lead to Leave among likely voters. It is beginning to look over bar the shouting. Chaos on the money markets to follow?
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Thank God he didn't come today.RodCrosby said:Freggles said:
Is he still coming tomorrow?Casino_Royale said:Where's Trump?
He's cutting a ribbon at Turnberry on Friday morning.Freggles said:
Is he still coming tomorrow?Casino_Royale said:Where's Trump?
No word on his precise movements between now and then...0 -
Yeah that's an epic quote, a favourite of Mrs. Sandpit. EnjoyPlatoSaid said:Well, I've just bought three bottles of fizz for tomorrow night/Friday. I'm doing my Lily Bollinger impersonation - it covers all eventualities.
“I drink Champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise, I never touch it -- unless I'm thirsty.”
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Anecdote alert. A girl I went to school with has just asked on Facebook if she needs her polling card to vote (told her to take some ID). When asked how she's voting she said Leave. I have to say, I had her down as somebody who doesn't vote.0
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If we leave will the Queen be happy when her Greek hubby gets sent home?NoEasyDay said:
Whats he odds on it being exactly 50:50 ?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The Queen is reputed to describe something as "interesting" when she disapproves.bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means
Methinks this is good for leave
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