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AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.

My figures predict 74% Remain in Newham if England is 50/50.

Do you have a link to your spreadsheet Andy ?

This is just my personal effort so anyone placing bets may prefer to stick to Chris Hanretty's version. It uses census data which means population is used not electorates, but I've taken that into account when coming up with the formula. Thanks to PW who indirectly contributed to it. There are one or two which don't look right to me, such as Sandwell and Coventry but I've decided to continue using the same formula for the whole of England. It'll be interesting to compare it to the actual result on Friday:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

PM was campaigning in Swindon today and your spreadsheet shows it 48%, this really is on a knife edge.

GIN1138 said:

Great to see @AndyJS back with us as we count down to Remain Day!

Yes. Welcome back AndyJS!

I've just backed the 60-65% turnout band AndyJS highlighted on Betfair at 9.0. I think turnout will be higher but not by much. In 1975 it was 67.23%. GE turnouts were higher back then but have dropped off in the last 4 GEs where turnout has ranged between 59.4 and 66.1%.

rcs1000 said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM2

Looks like Turkey will be Remain's biggest lie then....

And it's not exactly a small field either.

I actually met someone over lunch today who isn't sure how to vote and thinks less democracy is a price worth paying to stay in Europe .... paying for what he wasn't clear on.

I asked him to name 1 positive about the EU - tumbleweed.

Ooohhh... do we get tumbleweed from the EU?

Only if it conforms to Euronorm 47362859473 - "Permitted dimensions and rate of tumble of tumbleweed" (Revision 7.3)

SeanT said:

A fine and lucid essay by a Galician professor (Jean Monnet chairholder!) asking the Brits to leave, for the sake of Britain, and for the future of democracy in Europe.

http://capx.co/please-leave-a-letter-to-the-uk-from-the-scorched-lands/

My preferred option would be for the UK to remain, but instead of always looking to opt out, to assume a directive role.

Let's fight, not quit!

taffys said:

''A Brexit vote will most likely send both currencies downwards, so for a currency indicator I suggest GBP/USD is the one to watch. ''

Is Brexit worse for the euro than it is for sterling?

Discuss.

LOL. No-one has really discussed that. But if Brexit win, the amount of uncertainty re the UK is reduced (albeit with plenty still around until the outlines of the future arrangement with the EU is available) while the amount of uncertainty about the EU, and hence the Euro, rises dramatically. So logically, I'd expect the pound to hold or slide a bit against the dollar, and do rather well against the Euro. At least in the short term.

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

We'd see a pretty major "flight to safety".

Initially I absolutely agree. The question is how quickly thoughts might turn to 'contagion' ie Nexit/Dexit/Frexit etc.

Quite quickly, for me.

It's worth remembering that the other EU states are much more integrated than us. Exports to the EU as a percentage of GDP (off the top of my head) for European countries are something like:

UK 12%
Everyone else 20-35%

So what is a relatively manageable shift for us, is a massively bigger deal for others. I also reckon that most people will want to see what our relationship with the remaining EU is.

The most pressing flash-point will probably be Ireland. Will we see a workable compromise or will the stakes be raised until either Ireland needs to follow us out of the EU, or a unified Ireland will emerge and remain as a member state?

Michael Gove is apologising for comparing govt experts to NAZI SCIENTISTS: "inappropriate - a mistake - I mis-spoke"

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Any word on whether MikeK's ban is permanent?

we'll need him to report market news on Friday if his team unexpectedly win...

On the train to London. Once again a journey hit with major delays/cancellations - struggling to remember the last trip that was problem free!

So what have I missed since lunchtime?

Great news: more patronising CGI for the results:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36596648

Fenster said:

Pulpstar said:

Fenster said:

Stupid question guys. But am I registered to vote?

I've lived at the same property for 11 years and have never had an issue in the past, but has anything changed for this vote?

Did you get a polling card ?

I haven't seen one?? But my wife might easily have binned it. But I've been able to vote at the GE and the recent Welsh council elections.. I didn't have a card at the council election and was fine. I've been assuming I'll be okay this time - has anything changed?

You don't need it. You can just turn up and give ur address etc. You can check by phoning up ur council. Its a white polling card.

All of the Scottish Journalists I follow have written variation of the same article, why Ruth Davidson is not going to replace Cameron. Here is a flavour

Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, and Frances O'Grady, for Britain Stronger in Europe, and Boris Johnson, Mum and Grandmother Gisela Stuart, and Andrea Leadsom, also understood to have birthed progeny who have gone on to conceive offspring of their own, for the official Leave campaign, Immigrants Are Coming To Get Your Children.

But the debate that mattered was between Johnson and Davidson, two starkly contrasting symbols of modern conservatism -- the scion of privilege versus the blue collar girl from Fife. She thrashed Boris worse than an Eton prefect. That faux-bumbling bluster might impress Sloaney features writers and Have I Got News For You viewers but Davidson was deliciously impatient with the blond-tousled bounder.

Having booted him a good few times, Davidson went for a slug in the gut.

"Boris, can you name me just one country in the world that has said it will give us a better deal if we come out of the EU?"

Answer came there none.

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1358281-yes-ruth-davidson-won-the-eu-debate-no-england-you-can-t-have-her/

RodCrosby said:

"Clinton may be the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency of the USA..."

But certainly not the most arrogant....

Vote Leave are flying a plane with a banner over the Jo Cox memorial in London

@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-)
Leave: 45% (+1)
(via Opinium, online / 20 - 22 Jun)

Watching the memorial to Jo Cox is quite moving. They're trying to avoid talking about the Referendum so they're using a code which the audience seem to be wired into. "Jo wants to bring people together not promoting hatred" big cheer....

How TV will keep the even exposure rule while showing this will be challenging.

Fenster said:

Pulpstar said:

Fenster said:

Stupid question guys. But am I registered to vote?

I've lived at the same property for 11 years and have never had an issue in the past, but has anything changed for this vote?

Did you get a polling card ?

I haven't seen one?? But my wife might easily have binned it. But I've been able to vote at the GE and the recent Welsh council elections.. I didn't have a card at the council election and was fine. I've been assuming I'll be okay this time - has anything changed?

I'm a bit embarrassed to say that I forgot to register to vote when the system changed (last year?). But a lady from the council actually came to the door to "remind" people and I did the registration forms there and then.

Since then, I have had 2 sets of polling cards - one for the local council elections in May and again for the referendum. Did you get to vote in May? If so, I would imagine you are registered to vote in the Referendum.

Edited to add: I see you voted in the local elections. In that case, I think you'll be fine for tomorrow.

TheScreamingEagles said:

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-)
Leave: 45% (+1)
(via Opinium, online / 20 - 22 Jun)

Is this with the new methodology?

thank god this is over soon...

stellacreasy ‏@stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago
.@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!

Nicholas Soames ‏@nsoamesmp · 4m
@stellacreasy @voteleave what absolute shits

Apparently Vote Leave have flown a plane over the Jo Cox memorial in Trafalgar Square

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

A fine and lucid essay by a Galician professor (Jean Monnet chairholder!) asking the Brits to leave, for the sake of Britain, and for the future of democracy in Europe.

http://capx.co/please-leave-a-letter-to-the-uk-from-the-scorched-lands/

This has been my view throughout: us leaving the EU would be good for both us and the rest of the EU.

The biggest mistake that was made was not using this as an opportunity to change the EU into Eurozone plus Associate Members. Not two speed, but two destinations. One a political union, the other an economic one.

We would have taken Sweden and Denmark with us for sure, and possibly Poland.

I tend to agree but the question is why did that not happen? Perhaps because Cameron didn't want it so he never asked. Perhaps because the EU would have refused it utterly. Who knows we will have to wait for the memoirs and the historians.

TheScreamingEagles said:

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-)
Leave: 45% (+1)
(via Opinium, online / 20 - 22 Jun)

Swingback!

DanSmith said:

Scott_P said:

Vote Leave are flying a plane with a banner over the Jo Cox memorial in London

Ruh roh. Could be a Sheffield moment that.

Do you really think they sat down and said "hm, what would be a great publicity stunt? Let's fly our plane over the Jo Cox memorial"....

Mr. Gin, not sure. MikeK sent me an e-mailing, asking me to enquire whether his ban was temporary/permanent.

RochdalePioneers said:

struggling to remember the last trip that was problem free!

1973?

SeanT said:

A fine and lucid essay by a Galician professor (Jean Monnet chairholder!) asking the Brits to leave, for the sake of Britain, and for the future of democracy in Europe.

http://capx.co/please-leave-a-letter-to-the-uk-from-the-scorched-lands/

Indeed a fine, well-thought piece

RobD said:

DanSmith said:

Scott_P said:

Vote Leave are flying a plane with a banner over the Jo Cox memorial in London

Ruh roh. Could be a Sheffield moment that.

Do you really think they sat down and said "hm, what would be a great publicity stunt? Let's fly our plane over the Jo Cox memorial"....

what on Earth are they doing then?!

Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

Fenster said:

Pulpstar said:

Fenster said:

Stupid question guys. But am I registered to vote?

I've lived at the same property for 11 years and have never had an issue in the past, but has anything changed for this vote?

Did you get a polling card ?

I haven't seen one?? But my wife might easily have binned it. But I've been able to vote at the GE and the recent Welsh council elections.. I didn't have a card at the council election and was fine. I've been assuming I'll be okay this time - has anything changed?

No. If you voted at the council and welsh elections you should be fine for this one. Just go on down to vote. You don't need your polling card.

24 HOURS TO SAVE THE EU PROJECT DAVE!!!

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

The biggest mistake that was made was not using this as an opportunity to change the EU into Eurozone plus Associate Members. Not two speed, but two destinations. One a political union, the other an economic one.

I think that is exactly what Cameron's renegotiation does, or at least codifies, within the limits of what they could admit for face-saving reasons. Not in Schengen, not in the Eurozone, not subject to Eurozone bailouts, no settlement rights for third-country nationals who are long-term residents of other EU countries, various other opt-outs, explicit opt-out from 'ever-closer union', some limits on benefits for EU citizens, reduced membership fee. That's Associate Membership in reality - plus we have full voting rights. That's a good deal.

Except as I have pointed out it is meaningless and most of it will fall before it ever gets to be law.

Alistair said:

MTimT said:

Alistair said:

I still have a Yes poster up in my window. Also I will be a whole £3.52 richer regardless of the result on Friday due to my astute high value trading.

How much per hour does you GBP 3.52 work out at? Isn't there a minimum wage?

I have left the referendum well alone. I stuck £50 on after that blitz of leave leads and the price was ludicrously long and then cashed out when the price rebounded. About 1 minutes work all in so £200 an hour!

Not bad!

RodCrosby said:

Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.

It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.

MTimT said:

Scott_P said:

Vote Leave are flying a plane with a banner over the Jo Cox memorial in London

That is simply wrong.

It was near Trafalgar square. Remain don't own the whole London skyline.

Charles said:

Do you think they were actually flying over London vs buzzing the memorial?

Reports they have flown directly overheard multiple times.

Coincidence perhaps

brokenwheel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-)
Leave: 45% (+1)
(via Opinium, online / 20 - 22 Jun)

Swingback!

A Republic Monarchy lives on the knife's edge!

46% of Britons expect the UK will tomorrow vote to Remain, 27% expect a vote to Leave.
(via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

Its a private poll. 30℅ Labour voters out is touch and go.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

24 HOURS TO SAVE THE EU PROJECT DAVE!!!

and Ozzy and Farage

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

A fine and lucid essay by a Galician professor (Jean Monnet chairholder!) asking the Brits to leave, for the sake of Britain, and for the future of democracy in Europe.

http://capx.co/please-leave-a-letter-to-the-uk-from-the-scorched-lands/

This has been my view throughout: us leaving the EU would be good for both us and the rest of the EU.

The biggest mistake that was made was not using this as an opportunity to change the EU into Eurozone plus Associate Members. Not two speed, but two destinations. One a political union, the other an economic one.

We would have taken Sweden and Denmark with us for sure, and possibly Poland.

I tend to agree but the question is why did that not happen? Perhaps because Cameron didn't want it so he never asked. Perhaps because the EU would have refused it utterly. Who knows we will have to wait for the memoirs and the historians.

I spend a lot of time with EU politicians, and mostly they're obsessed with their own problems. They want to make the Eurozone work, within the limits imposed by their own electorates. Most of all, they want to get re-elected, and they don't want the train to come off the track.

They are certainly not doctrinaire. Schauble, and most senior German politicians, would rather Greece had chosen to leave the Euro than to stay. They thought Grexit would make the Eurozone stronger, rather than weaker, and would free up resources to use on countries that had gone through painful reform programmes.

If David Cameron had gone to Copenhagen and Stockholm and put together a non-Eurozone grouping, and then gone together to discuss with the Eurozone states about what could be done to enable: (a) the EZ to make the reforms it needs to survive, and (b) how non-EZ countries could opt out of the political union, I think it would have been welcomed rather than rebuffed. Simply, Schauble and Macron don't want to spend their time arguing with Cameron, they want to fix the problems they have.

So, why didn't this happen?

Because Cameron wanted to get the Euro "thing" done and behind him. Formally changing the EU treaties into Eurozone and Associate Member would have involved years of negotiating between the non-EZ countries, and a whole new treaty. 2020 would be a best case scenario, and 2022 might have been more likely.

If it is a narrow Remain, as seems likely, changing the treaties to enshrine the Associate Member status is still a necessity. We need to build an alliance of non-Eurozone countries. And I would hope that is what the sensible Leavers in the Conservative Party will have as their goal in such a situation.

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

Do you think they were actually flying over London vs buzzing the memorial?

Reports they have flown directly overheard multiple times.

Coincidence perhaps

Like I said, do you actually for one second think they thought it would be a good idea to fly over the memorial?

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

We'd see a pretty major "flight to safety".

Initially I absolutely agree. The question is how quickly thoughts might turn to 'contagion' ie Nexit/Dexit/Frexit etc.

Quite quickly, for me.

It's worth remembering that the other EU states are much more integrated than us. Exports to the EU as a percentage of GDP (off the top of my head) for European countries are something like:

UK 12%
Everyone else 20-35%

So what is a relatively manageable shift for us, is a massively bigger deal for others. I also reckon that most people will want to see what our relationship with the remaining EU is.

The most pressing flash-point will probably be Ireland. Will we see a workable compromise or will the stakes be raised until either Ireland needs to follow us out of the EU, or a unified Ireland will emerge and remain as a member state?

Is there really a big issue? They aren't in Schengen. Or is this to do with application of tariffs, if that happens?

Partly I think there is a legal issue around the Good Friday Agreement, which was underwritten by the EU. The lawyers' view as I understand it is that some renegotiation would be necessary if we are no longer in the EU.

And partly it is the border issue. The border is open by agreement between the UK and the Republic, rather than due to the EU, but if we leave, either we close the border, or there is a rather obvious loophole in the Brexit aspiration to "take control" of our borders. Closing the border would have significant adverse effects on Northern Ireland, leaving it open would allow any EU citizen to stroll into the UK via the Republic. Doubtless the leave campaign has a range of views to offer you on this issue, in its inimitable fashion...

And I think at a deeper level there is a view that having both the republic and the U.K. In the EU is of some reassurance to the republican community in the North.

Fenster said:

RodCrosby said:

Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.

It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.

All the Remainers are at work. Strivers.

Freggles said:

Fenster said:

RodCrosby said:

Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.

It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.

All the Remainers are at work. Strivers.

Oxford, on the other hand, was Remain.

Stoners

SeanT said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

thank god this is over soon...

stellacreasy ‏@stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago
.@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!

Nicholas Soames ‏@nsoamesmp · 4m
@stellacreasy @voteleave what absolute shits

I don't think anyone gives a, um, flying f*ck any more. I couldn't believe, when I got back from Calabria, yesterday, that the news was still banging on about poor Jo Cox, this time it was her husband crying on TV.

It was a horrible murder, and a terrible crime, and those motherless kids deserve all the hugs in the universe, but, really, get a grip. Her death is now very clearly being exploited, indeed over-exploited, by the REMAINIANS.

A memorial tribute to her, in Trafalgar Square, THE DAY BEFORE THE VOTE??

Eww. Ugh. Pfff. Enuff. They can fly a zillion zeppelins for all I care. We have a nation's future to decide.

Not very often I agree with ST but if anyones using Jo Cox Memorial for political end it aint LEAVE

I'm sure British Airways have flown over multiple times too.

How dare they flout St. Jo's memory in this way? Shouldn;t all airlines be grounded, actually?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.

My figures predict 74% Remain in Newham if England is 50/50.

Do you have a link to your spreadsheet Andy ?

This is just my personal effort so anyone placing bets may prefer to stick to Chris Hanretty's version. It uses census data which means population is used not electorates, but I've taken that into account when coming up with the formula. Thanks to PW who indirectly contributed to it. There are one or two which don't look right to me, such as Sandwell and Coventry but I've decided to continue using the same formula for the whole of England. It'll be interesting to compare it to the actual result on Friday:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

Wow thanks Andy - a great resource

Fantastic.

Looks pretty similar to the Hanretty version?

Looks like my figures for London are a lot higher for Remain than Hanretty's version and lower elsewhere.

bigjohnowls said:

SeanT said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

thank god this is over soon...

stellacreasy ‏@stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago
.@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!

Nicholas Soames ‏@nsoamesmp · 4m
@stellacreasy @voteleave what absolute shits

I don't think anyone gives a, um, flying f*ck any more. I couldn't believe, when I got back from Calabria, yesterday, that the news was still banging on about poor Jo Cox, this time it was her husband crying on TV.

It was a horrible murder, and a terrible crime, and those motherless kids deserve all the hugs in the universe, but, really, get a grip. Her death is now very clearly being exploited, indeed over-exploited, by the REMAINIANS.

A memorial tribute to her, in Trafalgar Square, THE DAY BEFORE THE VOTE??

Eww. Ugh. Pfff. Enuff. They can fly a zillion zeppelins for all I care. We have a nation's future to decide.

Not very often I agree with ST but if anyones using Jo Cox Memorial for political end it aint LEAVE

Yeah, I know it was going to be her birthday, but surely it would have been more appropriate to have it after the vote? Would have avoided any connection between the two.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently Vote Leave have flown a plane over the Jo Cox memorial in Trafalgar Square

Do you think they were actually flying over London vs buzzing the memorial?

Given the general shittiness of Vote Leave, cf Gove, I put nothing past them

Don't worry. We feel the same about you Frenchie.