I have just had an email from yougov to tell me they will be polling me tomorrow after I have voted to find out how I voted. Or if I decide not to vote to let them know that. They will send me the link in the morning and I am to fill out the poll after I have voted.
I imagine Yougov are trying to get a better understanding of the biases of their internet panel.
Makes sense to treat the referendum as a massive calibration exercise.
Suggesting he might sign for Rangers, the ultimate insult.
I thought their nickname now was Sevco
Huns is old school, The Sevs, Newco & Zombies are more recent. Some of them go ballistic if you dare to put the definite article 'The' in front of 'Rangers'. Safe to say a lot of them are on a hair trigger whatever you say them.
Years ago I enraged a Rangers fan by explaining why they and Celtic got their Old Firm nickname.
I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.
That's become the traditional warm up music for a Trump rally.
You are Joking?
Ode to Joy (Rise O Voices of Rhodesia) was the National Anthem of UDI Rhodesia under the Smith Government which famously said it was making a stand to preserve "Christian Civilization" in Africa!
A while back an EU delegation went to Zimbabwe and they played Ode to Joy for them and it nearly caused all hell to break out.
Is Trump sending out dogwhistles?
Mind you swap "Rhodesia" for "New Europe" and it might soon be our national anthem if we vote Remain!
Uninof Westminster su just sent everyone an email reminding them to vote and they are backing remain. Because its a low ranked uni and in London most will be registered.
But turnout will be lucky to hit 60% and more likely to be 55℅.
There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.
Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.
It seems incredible that we aren't getting a public one given it is standard for GE & the importance of this vote. It isn't like we are waiting to find out if Margaret in margate has got her council seat.
There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.
Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.
Since I'll be at a count and unsure when I'll get a break to check my phone, I'm going to have to get by through looking at the faces of Leave and Remain campaigners and measure the glumness factor through the night.
There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.
Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.
It seems incredible that we aren't getting a public one.
Because it will be ridiculously inaccurate and meaningless.
There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.
Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.
If that's a private exit poll, then they can be getting updates throughout the day, so movements won't just start at 10pm.
Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.
OK, I disagree with your view on the point of this site, but let us leave that alone for the moment.
No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?
This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.
Agreed, but FWIW - if you look at the 10/10 certain to votes (on an implied 77% turnout): 47.53% Remain vs 52.47% Leave
If you give people who report a 9/10 chance of voting 0.9 of a vote, etc., then you get 48.53% Remain vs 51.47% Leave, reducing the Leave majority from 4.9% to 2.9%.
There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.
Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.
Correct. I'll be watching Sterling carefully from mid-afternoon onwards.
Wandsworth: postal votes received by one hour ago, 37,000, turnout 78%.
One of those is mine! Big population growth in Putney & Wandsworth over the last 2 - 3 years, mainly into new build flats, so an increasing number of City-types which has to be good for Remain. On the other hand this is now a safe Tory Parliamentary seat.
There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.
Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.
It seems incredible that we aren't getting a public one.
I think there is a distinction in terminology. There will be at least one post vote opinion poll, but not an exit poll as you get in general elections. With exit polls the pollster samples voters in particular constituencies and compares the vote shares with the previous results in those constituencies. This gives a very accurate prediction of the vote across the election. Referendums are one-offs with no historical data to compare against, so the pollster has to weight his sample in the same way as the pre-vote polls. He now knows about turnout so that has reduced one of his potential inaccuracies but he still has weighting uncertainties.
I see people are saying a 1% leave lead in the lunchtime poll means remain have won. Presumably because of:
* NI Excluded - apparently it is not and its not looking like much of a remain victory there anyway * Gibraltar - they have 20,000 voters 0.04% of electorate. * Expats - if they have voted, if they outnumber armed services who are unpollable and if non EU expats have not voted.
Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.
OK, I disagree with your view on the point of this site, but let us leave that alone for the moment.
No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?
This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.
At the last election the richer and older you were the more likely you were to vote Tory
@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA
There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.
Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.
Correct. I'll be watching Sterling carefully from mid-afternoon onwards.
Unless it's a huge win for either side, a mid-afternoon poll is going to be very hard to interpret.
"... Big population growth in Putney & Wandsworth over the last 2 - 3 years, mainly into new build flats ..."
Crikey, Mr. Putney, that was my home turf and I don't remember any space (other than Wimbledon Common and Putney Heath) for new builds. Where have all those new flats been built?
@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA
Remain are dead unless the polls have been getting likelihood to vote wrong somehow. Not a hope. Postal votes probably for Leave and no more time for any convincing equals very good or Leave
@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA
Quel surprise?
I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.
Wandsworth: postal votes received by one hour ago, 37,000, turnout 78%.
Is that 78% of those who applied for a postal vote? I don't know why you'd go to the trouble of applying for one if you're not going to use it.
The days when 90%+ of postal votes came back are long gone. Postal votes are essentially issued on demand nowadays, and lots of people have postal votes who don't use them, especially people who wanted one once but end up signed up in perpetuity - typical turnout would be around 75%, but for this referendum I think 80% would be a reasonable estimate.
Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.
OK, I disagree with your view on the point of this site, but let us leave that alone for the moment.
No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?
This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.
These are the kind of issues that pollsters grapple with. Older, better educated people don't necessarily fall out at the half way point. It's in their handling of that sort of aggregation that separates the more consistently accurate polling companies from those vaguely in the ballpark. Is polling a useless exercise? That's a point of view.
I'm more and more pleased that I ordered that claret - gf so pleased she made some fresh houmous.
Less pleased when I explained it wouldn't be here for a couple of years. Not sure how to break it to her that we won't be drinking it until at least 2020.
Is Shadsy getting cold feet? That Laddies' offer of the margin of victory by either side to be < 1% has come in over the last few hours from 16/1 to 10/1.
I was emailed by Panel base about an on the day poll between 2pm and 10pm. They've just emailed again to say it's going ahead and with participation instructions.
@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA
Quel surprise?
I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.
There's no exit poll tomorrow, right? Will be anything else to keep us going? I'm not good with late nights.
Exit polls have, apparently, been commissioned by banks and hedge funds. So movements in the Forex markets, and stock exchanges in Asia/Oz, should give us a decent clue.
Correct. I'll be watching Sterling carefully from mid-afternoon onwards.
It would be a mistake for Hodgson to pick him again.
@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA
Quel surprise?
I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.
TNS had a bigger Leave lead in their poll last week
Leave had big leads but Remain pulled it back toward the beginning of this week. There's no time now.
The age split favours leave, the likely to vote favours leave.
The only thing that can save Remain is young people actually showing up (but apparently even accounting for more saying they;ll show up than probably will, Leave are ahead) and absolutely bucket loads of either shy remainers or last minute leave waverers.
That's a lot of things they need to go their way, and nothing else to throw at people.
It's odd. The odds aren't that different to the Scottish referendum yet the polls are much more favourable to leave than was the case with the Indyref - did they ever lead in more than one YouGov poll?
Thing is the polls were WRONG last year. Plenty of people would have been kicking themselves for not going with their instincts - Miliband no chance, Lib Dems massacre because the polls said otherwise. But what if the polls are RIGHT this time? And we have a set of punters trying to read the tea leaves thinking that the British are surely far too small c conservative to consider leaving. Aren't they?
England Outside London 33 Million London 5 Million Wales 2 Million NI 1 Million Scotland 5 Million. Gib 0.022 million (so ignoring)
If London & Scotland (10 million between them) vote 70% Remain then that means 3 Million of them vote leave
To win leave need 23 million votes.
So they need 20 million votes in Rest of England + Wales + NI (as they get 3 million from Scotland and London). Population is 33+2+1. Therefore they need 20 million out of 36 million population = 55.5% Leave.
If London and Scotland vote 60% Remain, then Rest of England+Wales+NI need 19 million out of 36 million population = 52.7%
If London and Scotland vote 55%% Remain, then Rest of England+Wales+NI need 18.5 million out of 36 million population = 51.3%
That is based on 100% turnout.
If you factor in the turnout differetials from Yougov the other day which said Remain need to be 5% ahead due to differential turnouts then to win Leave in rest of England & Wales need 50.5% if Scotland and London poll 70% Remain, 47.7% if Scotland and London poll 60% Remain and 46.3 for 55%
That is why I think the maths show its all over for Remain.
@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA
Quel surprise?
I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.
TNS had a bigger Leave lead in their poll last week
They have changed methodology. This one using the previously methodology gives the same lead.
It's odd. The odds aren't that different to the Scottish referendum yet the polls are much more favourable to leave than was the case with the Indyref - did they ever lead in more than one YouGov poll?
Thing is the polls were WRONG last year. Plenty of people would have been kicking themselves for not going with their instincts - Miliband no chance, Lib Dems massacre because the polls said otherwise. But what if the polls are RIGHT this time? And we have a set of punters trying to read the tea leaves thinking that the British are surely far too small c conservative to consider leaving. Aren't they?
Comres had the Tories on 35%, the LDs on 9% in their final general election poll which was pretty close to the actual result, their final referendum poll is at 10pm tonight
I'm more and more pleased that I ordered that claret - gf so pleased she made some fresh houmous.
Less pleased when I explained it wouldn't be here for a couple of years. Not sure how to break it to her that we won't be drinking it until at least 2020.
I did wonder when @rcs1000 suggested using it to drown our sorrows...
@jamesrbuk: New TNS poll has 2pt lead for Leave. But there's a *very* dramatic footnote: Leave has 7pt lead among likely voters. https://t.co/Nx66e7ipdA
Quel surprise?
I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.
TNS had a bigger Leave lead in their poll last week
Different numbers. Last week was likely voters, this week is all registered voters.
Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.
OK, I disagree with your view on the point of this site, but let us leave that alone for the moment.
No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?
This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.
These are the kind of issues that pollsters grapple with. Older, better educated people don't necessarily fall out at the half way point. It's in their handling of that sort of aggregation that separates the more consistently accurate polling companies from those vaguely in the ballpark. Is polling a useless exercise? That's a point of view.
If the polling can't get close to the actual result (in terms of the essentials) then perhaps it is a pointless exercise.
However, I think it gets worse than that. Polling is now, and not just in politics, driving the narrative and investment decisions. It is becoming the news, the deciding factor, perhaps the shifter of opinion. If it is consistently wrong and, as demonstrated in 2015, even suppressing results because they don't fit what the company wants, then perhaps it becomes positively malignant.
Comments
Makes sense to treat the referendum as a massive calibration exercise.
Ode to Joy (Rise O Voices of Rhodesia) was the National Anthem of UDI Rhodesia under the Smith Government which famously said it was making a stand to preserve "Christian Civilization" in Africa!
A while back an EU delegation went to Zimbabwe and they played Ode to Joy for them and it nearly caused all hell to break out.
Is Trump sending out dogwhistles?
Mind you swap "Rhodesia" for "New Europe" and it might soon be our national anthem if we vote Remain!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuUHixVSyLk
We could while away the hours discussing the forthcoming Austrian Grand Prix.
But turnout will be lucky to hit 60% and more likely to be 55℅.
I find things like this a good antidote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jcy7E4uHYK8
Genius.
If that's a private exit poll, then they can be getting updates throughout the day, so movements won't just start at 10pm.
The question is whether or not that matters.
Are any of the ones due today phone polls?
No one has actually voted in this referendum so we don't actually know whether the predictions such as "older people tend to vote leave are correct". Then what happens when you have an older person who is also very well educated? How does one predict what side of the line they will fall on? How about a younger person with a masters degree who voted UKIP at the last GE? Which factor will override the other two?
This sort of politics is all about stereotyping, which is not only pernicious (and in other aspects of life illegal) but also I would suggest (and I'd point to the last GE as an example) not terribly useful.
48.53% Remain vs 51.47% Leave, reducing the Leave majority from 4.9% to 2.9%.
#Remain 41%
#Leave 43%
Undecided/Would not vote 16%
Online survey of 2,320 adults.
* NI Excluded - apparently it is not and its not looking like much of a remain victory there anyway
* Gibraltar - they have 20,000 voters 0.04% of electorate.
* Expats - if they have voted, if they outnumber armed services who are unpollable and if non EU expats have not voted.
Probably the Opinium poll already been released
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 41% (+1)
Leave: 43% (-4)
(via TNS, online / 16 - 22 Jun)
I do wonder how this will go.
You can have a "permanent" postal vote - I imagine most postal votes are "permanent".
"... Big population growth in Putney & Wandsworth over the last 2 - 3 years, mainly into new build flats ..."
Crikey, Mr. Putney, that was my home turf and I don't remember any space (other than Wimbledon Common and Putney Heath) for new builds. Where have all those new flats been built?
Over 1 in six voters don't know.
Clear as mud.
I said after camerons panic conference outside Downing Street yesterday it was over.
Sorry, misread "What" as "Why"
Less pleased when I explained it wouldn't be here for a couple of years. Not sure how to break it to her that we won't be drinking it until at least 2020.
Ryanair has said that it will offer its 'biggest ever sale' on Friday if Remain wins.
Looking at the ruling earlier about treating voters by the Electoral Commission with relatuion to the croissants at St Pancras, is that legal?
England Leave 4.5 ahead - still available at 7/4 on Betfair.
The age split favours leave, the likely to vote favours leave.
The only thing that can save Remain is young people actually showing up (but apparently even accounting for more saying they;ll show up than probably will, Leave are ahead) and absolutely bucket loads of either shy remainers or last minute leave waverers.
That's a lot of things they need to go their way, and nothing else to throw at people.
Thing is the polls were WRONG last year. Plenty of people would have been kicking themselves for not going with their instincts - Miliband no chance, Lib Dems massacre because the polls said otherwise. But what if the polls are RIGHT this time? And we have a set of punters trying to read the tea leaves thinking that the British are surely far too small c conservative to consider leaving. Aren't they?
Bloody Hell
46 million electorate.
England Outside London 33 Million
London 5 Million
Wales 2 Million
NI 1 Million
Scotland 5 Million.
Gib 0.022 million (so ignoring)
If London & Scotland (10 million between them) vote 70% Remain then that means 3 Million of them vote leave
To win leave need 23 million votes.
So they need 20 million votes in Rest of England + Wales + NI (as they get 3 million from Scotland and London). Population is 33+2+1. Therefore they need 20 million out of 36 million population = 55.5% Leave.
If London and Scotland vote 60% Remain, then Rest of England+Wales+NI need 19 million out of 36 million population = 52.7%
If London and Scotland vote 55%% Remain, then Rest of England+Wales+NI need 18.5 million out of 36 million population = 51.3%
That is based on 100% turnout.
If you factor in the turnout differetials from Yougov the other day which said Remain need to be 5% ahead due to differential turnouts then to win Leave in rest of England & Wales need 50.5% if Scotland and London poll 70% Remain, 47.7% if Scotland and London poll 60% Remain and 46.3 for 55%
That is why I think the maths show its all over for Remain.
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/ryanair-promises-biggest-ever-sale-on-friday-to-reward-voters-if-remain-wins/ar-AAhsSul?ocid=spartandhp
"Ronaldo is absolutely fuming."
Couldn't happen to a nicer chap............ titters.
Likely voters is 49% vs 42%.
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/745663086711943168/photo/1
However, I think it gets worse than that. Polling is now, and not just in politics, driving the narrative and investment decisions. It is becoming the news, the deciding factor, perhaps the shifter of opinion. If it is consistently wrong and, as demonstrated in 2015, even suppressing results because they don't fit what the company wants, then perhaps it becomes positively malignant.