politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s 10/1 on a second EU Referendum being held before July
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Or UKIP could become one of the major partiesYBarddCwsc said:
I think I agree with that.El_Dave said:I think a general election mandate to leave the EU is more likely. Probably the Conservatives with a Leave supporting leader.
France did something similar after their referendum rejecting the EU Constitution. Mr Sarkozy made signing the Lisbon Treaty part of his presidential election platform.
It is not possible for ~ 50 per cent of the population to want to leave (and probably a further 20 per cent to want significant EU reform) without one of the major parties becoming explicitly anti-EU.
There are just too many votes to be gathered in bashing the EU. (And after all, that is basically one of the reasons Cameron got his majority)
I think it will be the Tories that becomes a Leaver party, but it is not out of the question it could be Labour.0 -
Broadly agree.John_M said:
Both sides are ultimately bound by WTO rules. It's not a scene from Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome.BenedictWhite said:
Without wishing to sound difficult, it is my understanding, though I could be wrong, that we have something that they may want, like for example, access to our market. It isn't like we are naked with no bargaining chips is it?CarlottaVance said:
Yes - but since we aren't at the table for our exit deal - and if we don't like what's offered - tough - they just have to wait two years and we're out.RobD said:
Surely it is only dead once we leave the EU?CarlottaVance said:
As soon as Article 50 is invoked the rebate is dead - whatever happens subsequently. And since returning would involve both the Euro and Shengen I can't see it happening in decades....assuming either the EU or UK are around in decades.foxinsoxuk said:
We could get excited if it was a further referendum on AV...AnneJGP said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Another referendum next year? Oh. How exciting. :dismal face:
Next year the Germans and French have their elections, and I cannot see either of those rolling out a much changed deal for us before those were out of the way.
I could see the possibility of one when the article 50 proposals are finalised, but suspect those will not give us advantageous terms.
We, collectively, cannot have things both ways.
A common complaint about the EU is that is corporatist and heavily influenced by big business. If that is true, they will be heavily incentivized by those big businesses to get a deal made as quickly as possible.
If we believe that the EU is not corporatist, then we have a purely political negotiation, where, for example, France just tells us to fuck off (assuming that by some miracle France has bound and gagged Germany and locked it in a closet somewhere).
In reality, it's likely to be somewhere in between, with individual EU countries seeking sectorial advantage that align with their national interests. That varies wildly. We're Germany's #3 export market behind the US and France. Croatia probably doesn't give a hoot what we do (I haven't checked that assertion for veracity
).
The reality is that negotiations will be dealing with competing interests of which access to our markets is a large one. We have cards to play and in the event of a leave vote I expect them to be played to our advantage.0 -
I don't think the Nissan employees need be too worried - if European sales of their companies products are endangered, then what does this mean for the likes of VW, BMW, Mercedes, etc, etc, etc?. Trade tariffs are just never going to happen.rottenborough said:
Good question. Some say that the Nissan factory will be a factor. Observer newspaper says that more interesting will be two other early results (but not 1st) of Newcastle and Hartlepool. If Newcastle goes Leave then it looks like its all over for Remain. Hartlepool will probably be Leave.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhere near enough supporters amongst the Tory MPS to give him any realistic chance of winning.rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?0 -
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.rcs1000 said:I think your last paragraph is spot on. Germany will want continued tariff free access for cars to the UK; France will want an end to financial market passporting; and Poland will want continued freedom of Labour.
The combination of us not knowing exactly what relationship we want with the EU, and each different EU country having different red lines could make the discussions pretty interesting.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”0 -
I have no interest in a second referendum. I want out.CarlottaVance said:
The comment was in the context of a "second referendum" - the topic of the thread. But if you think we would get better terms (including keeping the rebate) in a new deal you've got more faith in the EU than I have!Richard_Tyndall said:
I am keen to leave. I am just pointing out the idiocy of you claiming that once we invoke Article 50 we would no longer have the rebate. Once we invoke Article 50 the rebate and our ability to protect it does not change until we leave the EU at which point of course it no longer matters.CarlottaVance said:
The count down clock starts ticking - and in two years we would be out. If we were to try a reverse ferret then I doubt we would get friendly terms.Richard_Tyndall said:
Again not true. There is no change in our legal relationship with the EU until we leave. Invoking Article 50 does not remove our veto.CarlottaVance said:
As soon as Article 50 is invoked the rebate is dead - whatever happens subsequently. And since returning would involve both the Euro and Shengen I can't see it happening in decades....assuming either the EU or UK are around in decades.foxinsoxuk said:
We could get excited if it was a further referendum on AV...AnneJGP said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Another referendum next year? Oh. How exciting. :dismal face:
Next year the Germans and French have their elections, and I cannot see either of those rolling out a much changed deal for us before those were out of the way.
I could see the possibility of one when the article 50 proposals are finalised, but suspect those will not give us advantageous terms.
I thought you chaps were keen to leave?0 -
F1: just glancing at the figures so far. On a hedged basis I've only got 5/17 weekend bets [not including the Verstappen one] right. That does, however, equate to a small profit at this stage.
Bit of an unusual state of play, I think. Perhaps indicative of some bad luck preventing wins, and some good luck bringing in long odds bets.0 -
Problem is that it needs all the money it can get to cover fragile economies in the Eurozone or the Germans get the bills. All of them. That may make them a little unhappy.rcs1000 said:
The Eurozone does have a massive trade surplus to play with, mind. For 2015 it was something like EUR300bn, which actually about 15% more than China's surplus. (These numbers are from memory, but they'll be roughly right.)BenedictWhite said:
I think the question you have to ask is how strong is the hand they are holding.CarlottaVance said:
But do they want access to our market as much as we want access to theirs?BenedictWhite said:
Without wishing to sound difficult, it is my understanding, though I could be wrong, that we have something that they may want, like for example, access to our market. It isn't like we are naked with no bargaining chips is it?CarlottaVance said:
Yes - but since we aren't at the table for our exit deal - and if we don't like what's offered - tough - they just have to wait two years and we're out.RobD said:
Surely it is only dead once we leave the EU?CarlottaVance said:
As soon as Article 50 is invoked the rebate is dead - whatever happens subsequently. And since returning would involve both the Euro and Shengen I can't see it happening in decades....assuming either the EU or UK are around in decades.foxinsoxuk said:
We could get excited if it was a further referendum on AV...AnneJGP said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Another referendum next year? Oh. How exciting. :dismal face:
Next year the Germans and French have their elections, and I cannot see either of those rolling out a much changed deal for us before those were out of the way.
I could see the possibility of one when the article 50 proposals are finalised, but suspect those will not give us advantageous terms.
And are we trying to preserve some grand project where a little pain might be worth it "pour encourager les autres"?
This is SINDYRef revisited where the Nats thought they held all the cards...
Is the Euro zone a land of economic strength that can bear the reduction in access to the UK, for £289 billion in exports, or is it riddled with debt, deflation and austerity?
We've never had a stronger hand to play.0 -
That was a shitty analogy the first time you posted it, and it hasn't improved with age.Scott_P said:
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.rcs1000 said:I think your last paragraph is spot on. Germany will want continued tariff free access for cars to the UK; France will want an end to financial market passporting; and Poland will want continued freedom of Labour.
The combination of us not knowing exactly what relationship we want with the EU, and each different EU country having different red lines could make the discussions pretty interesting.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”0 -
It would be a Farage wet dream!John_M said:
I have no idea how it plays if England votes out and the Scots keep us in. Of course, I appreciate that Cameron will play the One Nation card, but even so. That would be ghastly.rcs1000 said:
I think that is inevitable, irrespective of whether its 51% to Leave or 49%.weejonnie said:
If it is then the WWC are going to deliver Cameron a h**l of a thumping.rcs1000 said:
I would expect Sunderland to be 6-8% more friendly to Leave than the country as a whole. If it wasn't for Nissan, I'd say 12-15% more friendly.BenedictWhite said:
No idea.foxinsoxuk said:
Though does the Sunderland counting area include some places outside the city?BenedictWhite said:
Apparently a Voodo poll in the Sunderland echo has leave on 70%. I will watch those results with interest.foxinsoxuk said:
If Sunderland is less than 53% for Leave then Remain will win, from demograhic profile. At least that was the verdict when discussed on here a week or two back.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhere near enough supporters amongst the Tory MPS to give him any realistic chance of winning.rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?
I'll be at a count I suspect, but will be watching Sunderland, Hartlepool and Newcastle with interest.
If it's heavy one way or another we will at least have a feel of the night.0 -
Hmmm... interesting. I think you're optimistic, because UKIP got 80% more votes in the Sunderland seats than in the country as a whole (22% vs 14%). If we assume (simplistically) that Leave vote share correlates well with UKIP percentage, then this should be top 25% result for Leave.BenedictWhite said:
I agree. The only caveat is that I would say 53% plus for leave is good.rcs1000 said:
If Sunderland is more than 60% for Leave, I think we can reasonably assume a Leave victory. (85%+ probability).BenedictWhite said:
Apparently a Voodo poll in the Sunderland echo has leave on 70%. I will watch those results with interest.foxinsoxuk said:
If Sunderland is less than 53% for Leave then Remain will win, from demograhic profile. At least that was the verdict when discussed on here a week or two back.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhere near enough supporters amongst the Tory MPS to give him any realistic chance of winning.rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?
On the other hand, if it's below 50% for Leave, I'd flip it, and assume a similar likelihood for Remain.
I would point out that local papers' voodoo polls do not have a good record. I remember in the famous battle for Bedfordshire North in 1992, when the local newspaper had the Labour candidate Pat Hall on something like 50%, with the Conservatives on 35% and the Alliance Social and Liberal Democrats on about 10%. The eventual result did not look anything like that.
Voodoo polls are voodoo polls. For amusement only. Just thought I would mention it for the sake of amusement.
For that reason, I think 55% is the vote share where Leave should become overall (51%) favourites.
Put it another way, I can't see Leave outpolling their national share by just 2% in Sunderland.0 -
But that only considers one part one of actor.peter_from_putney said:I don't think the Nissan employees need be too worried - if European sales of their companies products are endangered, then what does this mean for the likes of VW, BMW, Mercedes, etc, etc, etc?. Trade tariffs are just never going to happen.
BMW (Germany) want to sell cars, but so do France (Renault) and Italy (Fiat)
They might be prepared to accept tariffs on UK car sales (a few million customers), as long as they can all sell into China (a few billion customers) at preferential rates0 -
Yep but they were dummies up against a sitting POTUS.HYUFD said:
Kerry and Romney were effectively destroyed over the summer by Bush and Obama negative ads, Hillary is trying to do the same to Trumpwilliamglenn said:
Interesting. We saw Trump's poll numbers slip when the opposition to him in the GOP primaries went into overdrive but he was able to pull it back. Are we seeing the same effect now, and will Hillary run out of ammo by November?rottenborough said:"Every single 2016 presidential TV ad currently airing in a battleground state is either from Hillary Clinton's campaign or the Democratic outside groups supporting her."
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-democrats-dominate-2016-battleground-airwaves-n594676
Trump is getting all his own negatives out there from the get go. Very smart. Clinton's ads can have no further appreciable effect.
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Fair enough... I heard the 53% figure elsewhere. I am happy to take your analysis on board and say 55% and above is the marker.rcs1000 said:
Hmmm... interesting. I think you're optimistic, because UKIP got 80% more votes in the Sunderland seats than in the country as a whole (22% vs 14%). If we assume (simplistically) that Leave vote share correlates well with UKIP percentage, then this should be top 25% result for Leave.BenedictWhite said:
I agree. The only caveat is that I would say 53% plus for leave is good.rcs1000 said:
If Sunderland is more than 60% for Leave, I think we can reasonably assume a Leave victory. (85%+ probability).BenedictWhite said:
Apparently a Voodo poll in the Sunderland echo has leave on 70%. I will watch those results with interest.foxinsoxuk said:
If Sunderland is less than 53% for Leave then Remain will win, from demograhic profile. At least that was the verdict when discussed on here a week or two back.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhere near enough supporters amongst the Tory MPS to give him any realistic chance of winning.rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?
On the other hand, if it's below 50% for Leave, I'd flip it, and assume a similar likelihood for Remain.
I would point out that local papers' voodoo polls do not have a good record. I remember in the famous battle for Bedfordshire North in 1992, when the local newspaper had the Labour candidate Pat Hall on something like 50%, with the Conservatives on 35% and the Alliance Social and Liberal Democrats on about 10%. The eventual result did not look anything like that.
Voodoo polls are voodoo polls. For amusement only. Just thought I would mention it for the sake of amusement.
For that reason, I think 55% is the vote share where Leave should become overall (51%) favourites.
Put it another way, I can't see Leave outpolling their national share by just 2% in Sunderland.0 -
Patrickdamus the Seer has thrown his chicken bones, licked a toad, eaten a magic mushroom and seen the future: Remain will get it by the very tiniest of margins. This will cause a never ending seam of woe to be mined for as long as anyone wishes to blame something on it. But...fear not good Leavers. The EU is not going to survive the coming recession unmolested. Big banks will fail, the ECB will not be able to backstop bank or national failures and the Euro meets its moment. A shitstorm of galactic proportions engulfs the EU elite as they seek to make it a country. The EU project is visibly and manifestly failing all its members as the UK has its second EU referendum in a decade and votes decisively this time to get the fuck out of Dodge.0
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While I know I'm in a minority of one on here, I think we overestimate the fragility of the Eurozone, and underestimate the fragility of the UK.BenedictWhite said:Problem is that it needs all the money it can get to cover fragile economies in the Eurozone or the Germans get the bills. All of them. That may make them a little unhappy.
Whether we are looking at current account, budget deficit, or private sector debt, pretty much every Eurozone country is in much better shape that 2008. We, on the other hand, are in much worse shape.0 -
By my reckoning, after your 250/1 triumph, you could afford to have 3 losers per race at every Grand Prix over the next 4 years and still finish ahead. Btw have you formally received your gong yet from OGH?Morris_Dancer said:F1: just glancing at the figures so far. On a hedged basis I've only got 5/17 weekend bets [not including the Verstappen one] right. That does, however, equate to a small profit at this stage.
Bit of an unusual state of play, I think. Perhaps indicative of some bad luck preventing wins, and some good luck bringing in long odds bets.0 -
We have cards to play, but it's unlikely the deal will be to our advantage. That's because the EU is control of the process and the timetable, it is bigger than we are and therefore needs the deal less, and because a lot of the things other countries want - business that happens in the UK thanks to its membership of the EU - would fall to them anyway in the absence of a deal.BenedictWhite said:
Broadly agree.John_M said:
Both sides are ultimately bound by WTO rules. It's not a scene from Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome.BenedictWhite said:
Without wishing to sound difficult, it is my understanding, though I could be wrong, that we have something that they may want, like for example, access to our market. It isn't like we are naked with no bargaining chips is it?CarlottaVance said:
Yes - but since we aren't at the table for our exit deal - and if we don't like what's offered - tough - they just have to wait two years and we're out.RobD said:
Surely it is only dead once we leave the EU?CarlottaVance said:
As soon as Article 50 is invoked the rebate is dead - whatever happens subsequently. And since returning would involve both the Euro and Shengen I can't see it happening in decades....assuming either the EU or UK are around in decades.
We, collectively, cannot have things both ways.
A common complaint about the EU is that is corporatist and heavily influenced by big business. If that is true, they will be heavily incentivized by those big businesses to get a deal made as quickly as possible.
If we believe that the EU is not corporatist, then we have a purely political negotiation, where, for example, France just tells us to fuck off (assuming that by some miracle France has bound and gagged Germany and locked it in a closet somewhere).
In reality, it's likely to be somewhere in between, with individual EU countries seeking sectorial advantage that align with their national interests. That varies wildly. We're Germany's #3 export market behind the US and France. Croatia probably doesn't give a hoot what we do (I haven't checked that assertion for veracity ).
The reality is that negotiations will be dealing with competing interests of which access to our markets is a large one. We have cards to play and in the event of a leave vote I expect them to be played to our advantage.0 -
Why would you think China will give the EU better trade rates than it does now just because the UK has left? Surely they are not connected in that sense and the China deal will be years off in any case.Scott_P said:
But that only considers one part one of actor.peter_from_putney said:I don't think the Nissan employees need be too worried - if European sales of their companies products are endangered, then what does this mean for the likes of VW, BMW, Mercedes, etc, etc, etc?. Trade tariffs are just never going to happen.
BMW (Germany) want to sell cars, but so do France (Renault) and Italy (Fiat)
They might be prepared to accept tariffs on UK car sales (a few million customers), as long as they can all sell into China (a few billion customers) at preferential rates0 -
shows how little you understand the car industry.Scott_P said:
But that only considers one part one of actor.peter_from_putney said:I don't think the Nissan employees need be too worried - if European sales of their companies products are endangered, then what does this mean for the likes of VW, BMW, Mercedes, etc, etc, etc?. Trade tariffs are just never going to happen.
BMW (Germany) want to sell cars, but so do France (Renault) and Italy (Fiat)
They might be prepared to accept tariffs on UK car sales (a few million customers), as long as they can all sell into China (a few billion customers) at preferential rates0 -
Shhhhh.rcs1000 said:While I know I'm in a minority of one on here, I think we overestimate the fragility of the Eurozone, and underestimate the fragility of the UK.
Whether we are looking at current account, budget deficit, or private sector debt, pretty much every Eurozone country is in much better shape that 2008. We, on the other hand, are in much worse shape.
Leavers don't listen to experts0 -
I thought UKIP was on for a good night with the early results from the NE last May, but they outperformed their national vote there. I suspect the Brexot vote will be the same. 60% or more for Brexit would be clear, as would a Remain win, but in the fifties, I would not be sure.BenedictWhite said:
No idea.foxinsoxuk said:
Though does the Sunderland counting area include some places outside the city?BenedictWhite said:
Apparently a Voodo poll in the Sunderland echo has leave on 70%. I will watch those results with interest.foxinsoxuk said:
If Sunderland is less than 53% for Leave then Remain will win, from demograhic profile. At least that was the verdict when discussed on here a week or two back.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhere near enough supporters amongst the Tory MPS to give him any realistic chance of winning.rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?
I'll be at a count I suspect, but will be watching Sunderland, Hartlepool and Newcastle with interest.
If it's heavy one way or another we will at least have a feel of the night.0 -
Well, make it two. I didn't want a referendum in 2016. But it's the only one on offer. I think there are only three EZ countries still running >3% deficits, so they've come a long way.rcs1000 said:
While I know I'm in a minority of one on here, I think we overestimate the fragility of the Eurozone, and underestimate the fragility of the UK.BenedictWhite said:Problem is that it needs all the money it can get to cover fragile economies in the Eurozone or the Germans get the bills. All of them. That may make them a little unhappy.
Whether we are looking at current account, budget deficit, or private sector debt, pretty much every Eurozone country is in much better shape that 2008. We, on the other hand, are in much worse shape.
The issue for them is that it isn't unwinding their other economic indicators, like unemployment, or at least, not at any great pace.0 -
Doesnt say much for Conservative economic polices. The country's in worse shape than under BrownScott_P said:
Shhhhh.rcs1000 said:While I know I'm in a minority of one on here, I think we overestimate the fragility of the Eurozone, and underestimate the fragility of the UK.
Whether we are looking at current account, budget deficit, or private sector debt, pretty much every Eurozone country is in much better shape that 2008. We, on the other hand, are in much worse shape.
Leavers don't listen to experts0 -
We did this a few weeks ago. BMW already sells more cars in China than it does in the UK. The UK is not the most important market for EU car sales. Tariffs on UK sales would not see the end of the EU car industryBenedictWhite said:Why would you think China will give the EU better trade rates than it does now just because the UK has left? Surely they are not connected in that sense and the China deal will be years off in any case.
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Mr. Putney, I prefer to think that someone who put a week's wages on it can take a five year holiday from work
Nice fluke, but I'm not including it in the figures (wasn't mentioned during the weekend articles). As I've said before, I'm toying with the idea, if I'm ok at the season's end, of using some of that money for a small stakes spread account.
I still await the Golden Wiffle Stick.0 -
Sorry, we know China is a vast market, but you said preferential rates, not current rates.Scott_P said:
We did this a few weeks ago. BMW already sells more cars in China than it does in the UK. The UK is not the most important market for EU car sales. Tariffs on UK sales would not see the end of the EU car industryBenedictWhite said:Why would you think China will give the EU better trade rates than it does now just because the UK has left? Surely they are not connected in that sense and the China deal will be years off in any case.
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I lost £12 on my spread betMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Putney, I prefer to think that someone who put a week's wages on it can take a five year holiday from work
Nice fluke, but I'm not including it in the figures (wasn't mentioned during the weekend articles). As I've said before, I'm toying with the idea, if I'm ok at the season's end, of using some of that money for a small stakes spread account.
I still await the Golden Wiffle Stick.0 -
So the thing is going to be announced by constituency, like a GE (but with a running total of votes cast for each side), or by region or what?0
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chortleScott_P said:
We did this a few weeks ago. BMW already sells more cars in China than it does in the UK. The UK is not the most important market for EU car sales. Tariffs on UK sales would not see the end of the EU car industryBenedictWhite said:Why would you think China will give the EU better trade rates than it does now just because the UK has left? Surely they are not connected in that sense and the China deal will be years off in any case.
BMWs most popular model in the UK is the 3 series. All right hand three series worldwide are made in South Africa. BMWs next most popular model is the Mini which is made in Oxford.
BMW will not suffer. The people who will suffer are VW, Audi and Mercedes whose models mostly come from Germany.0 -
If the UK rates go up from their current zero, that makes the Chinese rates preferential than they are nowBenedictWhite said:Sorry, we know China is a vast market, but you said preferential rates, not current rates.
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By council areaKentRising said:So the thing is going to be announced by constituency, like a GE (but with a running total of votes cast for each side), or by region or what?
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By "counting area". See the wiki page for more detailsKentRising said:So the thing is going to be announced by constituency, like a GE (but with a running total of votes cast for each side), or by region or what?
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...for nowAlanbrooke said:BMWs next most popular model is the Mini which is made in Oxford.
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Whenever I hear stories about the so-called fragility of the eurozone I file them as British propaganda - and in particular, as propaganda for that nest of financial traders, money launderers and big-time spivs powerhouse of British industry called Monte Carlo the City of London.rcs1000 said:
While I know I'm in a minority of one on here, I think we overestimate the fragility of the Eurozone, and underestimate the fragility of the UK.BenedictWhite said:Problem is that it needs all the money it can get to cover fragile economies in the Eurozone or the Germans get the bills. All of them. That may make them a little unhappy.
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Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.Scott_P said:0 -
I think its like indyref, with council areas announcing total votes. then you get a running national total.KentRising said:So the thing is going to be announced by constituency, like a GE (but with a running total of votes cast for each side), or by region or what?
(Post-indyref, we also got breakdown of votes by constituency and ward, so it was counted like a GE).0 -
All that does it make it harder to sell German made cars, not any easier anywhere does it?Scott_P said:
If the UK rates go up from their current zero, that makes the Chinese rates preferential than they are nowBenedictWhite said:Sorry, we know China is a vast market, but you said preferential rates, not current rates.
0 -
Mr. P, as I said, I was very surprised by the low attrition rate. Few reliability issues and no real crashes was not the expectation of most people.0
-
I don't know how accurate or otherwise this figure is or what demographics it's based on.BenedictWhite said:
I agree. The only caveat is that I would say 53% plus for leave is good.rcs1000 said:
If Sunderland is more than 60% for Leave, I think we can reasonably assume a Leave victory. (85%+ probability).BenedictWhite said:
Apparently a Voodo poll in the Sunderland echo has leave on 70%. I will watch those results with interest.foxinsoxuk said:
If Sunderland is less than 53% for Leave then Remain will win, from demograhic profile. At least that was the verdict when discussed on here a week or two back.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhere near enough supporters amongst the Tory MPS to give him any realistic chance of winning.rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?
On the other hand, if it's below 50% for Leave, I'd flip it, and assume a similar likelihood for Remain.
I would point out that local papers' voodoo polls do not have a good record. I remember in the famous battle for Bedfordshire North in 1992, when the local newspaper had the Labour candidate Pat Hall on something like 50%, with the Conservatives on 35% and the Alliance Social and Liberal Democrats on about 10%. The eventual result did not look anything like that.
But for what I believe to be a predominantly WWC area, a target of 53% Leave vote to indicate an overall UK win does not appear to be an insuperable hurdle, but of course I could be wrong.
0 -
We will see but it will be a relentless onslaught over the next month or twoRodCrosby said:
Yep but they were dummies up against a sitting POTUS.HYUFD said:
Kerry and Romney were effectively destroyed over the summer by Bush and Obama negative ads, Hillary is trying to do the same to Trumpwilliamglenn said:
Interesting. We saw Trump's poll numbers slip when the opposition to him in the GOP primaries went into overdrive but he was able to pull it back. Are we seeing the same effect now, and will Hillary run out of ammo by November?rottenborough said:"Every single 2016 presidential TV ad currently airing in a battleground state is either from Hillary Clinton's campaign or the Democratic outside groups supporting her."
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-democrats-dominate-2016-battleground-airwaves-n594676
Trump is getting all his own negatives out there from the get go. Very smart. Clinton's ads can have no further appreciable effect.0 -
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...0 -
It makes it easier to sell EU cars anywhere except the UKBenedictWhite said:All that does it make it harder to sell German made cars, not any easier anywhere does it?
0 -
If Britain votes Remain by a small margin, then there will be many demographics which people can say "kept us in".John_M said:
I have no idea how it plays if England votes out and the Scots keep us in. Of course, I appreciate that Cameron will play the One Nation card, but even so. That would be ghastly.
Two that spring to mind are London residents and Muslims.0 -
Yes a function of the EU.Scott_P said:
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.0 -
Yes, your right, the EU paid to have it moved elsewhere. How helpfulScott_P said:
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...0 -
Total bollocks. Most european car manufacturers already have localised production inside China years ago.Scott_P said:
It makes it easier to sell EU cars anywhere except the UKBenedictWhite said:All that does it make it harder to sell German made cars, not any easier anywhere does it?
0 -
Are you expecting reprisals?John_N4 said:
If Britain votes Remain by a small margin, then there will be many demographics which people can say "kept us in".John_M said:
I have no idea how it plays if England votes out and the Scots keep us in. Of course, I appreciate that Cameron will play the One Nation card, but even so. That would be ghastly.
Two that spring to mind are London residents and Muslims.0 -
So if we announce we are leaving. BMW won't move Mini production to Slovakia because reasons.Alanbrooke said:Yes a function of the EU.
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.
Sounds like an economic plan to me...0 -
No, makes no difference to how easy it is to sell EU cars anywhere except the UK where it would be harder.Scott_P said:
It makes it easier to sell EU cars anywhere except the UKBenedictWhite said:All that does it make it harder to sell German made cars, not any easier anywhere does it?
0 -
I will be blaming the Scots, and then transitively due to the auld alliance, the FrenchJohn_N4 said:
If Britain votes Remain by a small margin, then there will be many demographics which people can say "kept us in".John_M said:
I have no idea how it plays if England votes out and the Scots keep us in. Of course, I appreciate that Cameron will play the One Nation card, but even so. That would be ghastly.
Two that spring to mind are London residents and Muslims.. 0 -
No state aid in the EUAlanbrooke said:
Yes a function of the EU.Scott_P said:
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.. 0 -
There is nothing stopping them from doing that when we are inside the EU is there?Scott_P said:
So if we announce we are leaving. BMW won't move Mini production to Slovakia because reasons.Alanbrooke said:Yes a function of the EU.
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.
Sounds like an economic plan to me...0 -
Shows how little you understand BMWs strategy on plant location.Scott_P said:
So if we announce we are leaving. BMW won't move Mini production to Slovakia because reasons.Alanbrooke said:Yes a function of the EU.
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.
Sounds like an economic plan to me...
Mini production in the UK is seen as a brand value.
Thank you Austin Powers.0 -
I'm not so sure about the Muslim vote.John_N4 said:
If Britain votes Remain by a small margin, then there will be many demographics which people can say "kept us in".John_M said:
I have no idea how it plays if England votes out and the Scots keep us in. Of course, I appreciate that Cameron will play the One Nation card, but even so. That would be ghastly.
Two that spring to mind are London residents and Muslims.
Has anyone seen a poll? (Not a Pole.)0 -
Sharing the proceeds of growthBenedictWhite said:
Yes, your right, the EU paid to have it moved elsewhere. How helpfulScott_P said:
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...
Oh wait.....0 -
You mean while the plant is inside the largest market on Earth. You're right, there is nothing stopping them, apart from economics. If it was outside that market, different economics apply.BenedictWhite said:There is nothing stopping them from doing that when we are inside the EU is there?
0 -
...as long as we are part of the EU. if we tell them to Fuck Off, who knows.Alanbrooke said:Mini production in the UK is seen as a brand value.
0 -
And Mini production in the Netherlands is not brand value?Alanbrooke said:
Shows how little you understand BMWs strategy on plant location.Scott_P said:
So if we announce we are leaving. BMW won't move Mini production to Slovakia because reasons.Alanbrooke said:Yes a function of the EU.
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.
Sounds like an economic plan to me...
Mini production in the UK is seen as a brand value.
Thank you Austin Powers.
Edit: and also Austria.0 -
China is the largest car market on the planet.Scott_P said:
You mean while the plant is inside the largest market on Earth. You're right, there is nothing stopping them, apart from economics. If it was outside that market, different economics apply.BenedictWhite said:There is nothing stopping them from doing that when we are inside the EU is there?
Try getting your facts straight.
It's also growing above trend, Europe isnt.
http://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2015-full-year-international-worldwide-car-sales/0 -
This is all about perspectives. After the A10 accession, both the North and Scotland dropped a rank in the EU regional funding priorities as they were no longer classed as being deprived regions.Alanbrooke said:
Sharing the proceeds of growthBenedictWhite said:
Yes, your right, the EU paid to have it moved elsewhere. How helpfulScott_P said:
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...
Oh wait.....
The expectation is that the wealthiest countries can develop new businesses to replace those transferred to poorer areas of Europe. In time, this process will reduce income inequality across the EU. It's happened in France, Germany, the UK and several other countries.
I always feel sorry for people who lose their livelihoods (happened to me twice), but I can't criticize the EU for their policy.0 -
The next place BMW are going to stick a Mini factory will be the States or ChinaFF43 said:
And Mini production in the Netherlands is not brand value?Alanbrooke said:
Shows how little you understand BMWs strategy on plant location.Scott_P said:
So if we announce we are leaving. BMW won't move Mini production to Slovakia because reasons.Alanbrooke said:Yes a function of the EU.
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.
Sounds like an economic plan to me...
Mini production in the UK is seen as a brand value.
Thank you Austin Powers.0 -
So basically making it up now.Scott_P said:
...as long as we are part of the EU. if we tell them to Fuck Off, who knows.Alanbrooke said:Mini production in the UK is seen as a brand value.
0 -
The Brexit economic plan, as it is otherwise known...Alanbrooke said:So basically making it up now.
0 -
based on OsbornomicsScott_P said:
The Brexit economic plan, as it is otherwise known...Alanbrooke said:So basically making it up now.
0 -
It seems PB Bettors should be sitting with their calculators at the ready awaiting that all 8important +/- 55% vote for LEAVE in Sunderland!rcs1000 said:
For that reason, I think 55% is the vote share where Leave should become overall (51%) favourites.BenedictWhite said:
I agree. The only caveat is that I would say 53% plus for leave is good.rcs1000 said:
If Sunderland is more than 60% for Leave, I think we can reasonably assume a Leave victory. (85%+ probability).BenedictWhite said:
Apparently a Voodo poll in the Sunderland echo has leave on 70%. I will watch those results with interest.foxinsoxuk said:
If Sunderland is less than 53% for Leave then Remain will win, from demograhic profile. At least that was the verdict when discussed on here a week or two back.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhere near enough supporters amongst the Tory MPS to give him any realistic chance of winning.rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?
On the other hand, if it's below 50% for Leave, I'd flip it, and assume a similar likelihood for Remain.
I would point out that local papers' voodoo polls do not have a good record. I remember in the famous battle for Bedfordshire North in 1992, when the local newspaper had the Labour candidate Pat Hall on something like 50%, with the Conservatives on 35% and the Alliance Social and Liberal Democrats on about 10%. The eventual result did not look anything like that.
Voodoo polls are voodoo polls. For amusement only. Just thought I would mention it for the sake of amusement.
The truth is however that if the exit poll, presumably again on the stroke of 10.00pm, is anything like as accurate as for the 2015 GE, then unless the result is very close indeed we can all go to bed, instead of having to wait up for a further 4 - 5 hours of sometimes very boring, repetitive and partisan discussion.
Btw is another all-night pub party being planned this time?0 -
Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.0
-
Slovakia has cheaper labour than the UK either within or outside the EU.Alanbrooke said:
Yes a function of the EU.Scott_P said:
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.
If Leave think Brexit will lower British wages to lower than Slovakia, then they should tell us.
0 -
In multicultural Leicester it is my Hindu and Asian Christian colleagues who have been Leave inclined. The Muslims that I know are either Remain or voice no opinion. On the other hand they are rather preoccupied with Ramadan etc at present so all rather tired and grumpy. Long muggy days are pretty gruelling when fasting, and also the focus is on the spiritual world rather than the secular one. I would forecast a fairly low turnout from that community, though putting up Sadiq Khan for Remain in the debate may spark interest.rcs1000 said:
I'm not so sure about the Muslim vote.John_N4 said:
If Britain votes Remain by a small margin, then there will be many demographics which people can say "kept us in".John_M said:
I have no idea how it plays if England votes out and the Scots keep us in. Of course, I appreciate that Cameron will play the One Nation card, but even so. That would be ghastly.
Two that spring to mind are London residents and Muslims.
Has anyone seen a poll? (Not a Pole.)0 -
car manufacturers have always used sub contractors to assemble vehicles they don't want to put through their main production lines. Magna Steyr Austria is one of the largest, as is Valmet in Finland. The VMs have simply outsourced an obscure model line they can't be bothered making themselves. This is nothing new it's been a part of the car industry since the year dot.FF43 said:
And Mini production in the Netherlands is not brand value?Alanbrooke said:
Shows how little you understand BMWs strategy on plant location.Scott_P said:
So if we announce we are leaving. BMW won't move Mini production to Slovakia because reasons.Alanbrooke said:Yes a function of the EU.
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.
Sounds like an economic plan to me...
Mini production in the UK is seen as a brand value.
Thank you Austin Powers.
Edit: and also Austria.
0 -
The fact that a Ford factory was moved FROM the EU to OUTSIDE the EU must have been my imagination.Scott_P said:
You mean while the plant is inside the largest market on Earth. You're right, there is nothing stopping them, apart from economics. If it was outside that market, different economics apply.BenedictWhite said:There is nothing stopping them from doing that when we are inside the EU is there?
0 -
Decidedly Diana-esque, it has to be said. Some might say Sheffield-esque.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
Beware the Commonwealth vote. Leaning Leave probably.0
-
I don't think there is an exit poll.peter_from_putney said:
It seems PB Bettors should be sitting with their calculators at the ready awaiting that all 8important +/- 55% vote for LEAVE in Sunderland!rcs1000 said:
For that reason, I think 55% is the vote share where Leave should become overall (51%) favourites.BenedictWhite said:
I agree. The only caveat is that I would say 53% plus for leave is good.rcs1000 said:
If Sunderland is more than 60% for Leave, I think we can reasonably assume a Leave victory. (85%+ probability).BenedictWhite said:
Apparently a Voodo poll in the Sunderland echo has leave on 70%. I will watch those results with interest.foxinsoxuk said:
If Sunderland is less than 53% for Leave then Remain will win, from demograhic profile. At least that was the verdict when discussed on here a week or two back.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhere near enough supporters amongst the Tory MPS to give him any realistic chance of winning.rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
Btw, many thanks for the link to the earliest declaring councils as regards the referendum vote. You mentioned 2 or 3 of the contenders incl my own area, Wandsworth, but once again it seems Sunderland look virtually certain to win this race by a country mile.
The big question, from a betting perspective, is what exactly can we take from their result?
On the other hand, if it's below 50% for Leave, I'd flip it, and assume a similar likelihood for Remain.
I would point out that local papers' voodoo polls do not have a good record. I remember in the famous battle for Bedfordshire North in 1992, when the local newspaper had the Labour candidate Pat Hall on something like 50%, with the Conservatives on 35% and the Alliance Social and Liberal Democrats on about 10%. The eventual result did not look anything like that.
Voodoo polls are voodoo polls. For amusement only. Just thought I would mention it for the sake of amusement.
The truth is however that if the exit poll, presumably again on the stroke of 10.00pm, is anything like as accurate as for the 2015 GE, then unless the result is very close indeed we can all go to bed, instead of having to wait up for a further 4 - 5 hours of sometimes very boring, repetitive and partisan discussion.
Btw is another all-night pub party being planned this time?0 -
Mr. Putney, I must agree.
Also interesting to compare this with the reaction to Lee Rigby's death.0 -
Quite the reverse, staying in will raise wages.No_Offence_Alan said:
Slovakia has cheaper labour than the UK either within or outside the EU.Alanbrooke said:
Yes a function of the EU.Scott_P said:
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest.
If Leave think Brexit will lower British wages to lower than Slovakia, then they should tell us.
For multinationals the attraction of the eEU is they can move production and hang the consequences. As I have argued for some time, if we want to keep jobs and protect ourselves from multinats we need the same labour laws as France and Germany. Otherwise the multints will fill their boots and dump the problem on the UK taxpayer.
This doesnt just hit the car industry it's cross sector and gathering pace.0 -
Just caught the end of the breaking news but it really is going global involving many countries around the globe. Still waiting for full details but it apparently is her birthdayAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
I think non-China car demand is likely to be very subdued for a long-time.Alanbrooke said:
China is the largest car market on the planet.Scott_P said:
You mean while the plant is inside the largest market on Earth. You're right, there is nothing stopping them, apart from economics. If it was outside that market, different economics apply.BenedictWhite said:There is nothing stopping them from doing that when we are inside the EU is there?
Try getting your facts straight.
It's also growing above trend, Europe isnt.
http://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2015-full-year-international-worldwide-car-sales/
The rise of Uber (and Zip Car) means that my wife and I are seriously reassessing whether we actually need a car or not.0 -
There will be no exit poll as there was not for indyref. However yougov did a post vote poll which came out at 10pm which was just 1% off for No and Yes and they will probably do the same on Thursdaypeter_from_putney said:
It seems PB Bettors should be sitting with their calculators at the ready awaiting that all 8important +/- 55% vote for LEAVE in Sunderland!rcs1000 said:
For that reason, I think 55% is the vote share where Leave should become overall (51%) favourites.BenedictWhite said:
I agree. The only caveat is that I would say 53% plus for leave is good.rcs1000 said:
If Sunderland is more than 60% for Leave, I think we can reasonably assume a Leave victory. (85%+ probability).BenedictWhite said:
Apparently a Voodo poll in the Sunderland echo has leave on 70%. I will watch those results with interest.foxinsoxuk said:
If Sunderland is less than 53% for Leave then Remain will win, from demograhic profile. At least that was the verdict when discussed on here a week or two back.peter_from_putney said:
Correct decision ...... Boris ain't going to be PM by 01.01.16 or at any other time, he has nowhereke from their result?rottenborough said:Boris to be PM by 1st Jan at 8/1 seems tasty. But I've lost enough this year so far, so unless there's an upturn with my remaining POTUS related bets I'll probably not go for it.
On the other hand, if it's below 50% for Leave, I'd flip it, and assume a similar likelihood for Remain.
I would point out that local papers' voodoo polls do not have a good record. I remember in the famous battle for Bedfordshire North in 1992, when the local newspaper had the Labour candidate Pat Hall on something like 50%, with the Conservatives on 35% and the Alliance Social and Liberal Democrats on about 10%. The eventual result did not look anything like that.
Voodoo polls are voodoo polls. For amusement only. Just thought I would mention it for the sake of amusement.
The truth is however that if the exit poll, presumably again on the stroke of 10.00pm, is anything like as accurate as for the 2015 GE, then unless the result is very close indeed we can all go to bed, instead of having to wait up for a further 4 - 5 hours of sometimes very boring, repetitive and partisan discussion.
Btw is another all-night pub party being planned this time?0 -
it's as daft as giving Obama the nobel peace prize.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just caught the end of the breaking news but it really is going global involving many countries around the globe. Still waiting for full details but it apparently is her birthdayAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
Back when state aid was permitted, HM Treasury handed over wodges of cash to Mr DeLorean to build his cars in Ulster. This was to promote community relations and investment in the British industry. The Irish had turned him down. Needless to say, there is no thriving industry in back to the future cars around NI today.John_M said:
No state aid in the EUAlanbrooke said:
Yes a function of the EU.Scott_P said:
I know how the Peugeot factory at Ryton works.Alanbrooke said:Even funnier, it shows you have no idea of how factories work.
Oh, wait...
Close the UK plant and move it to cheap labour Slovakia. And it's all so easy because we're in the big market and no-one can protest..0 -
He apparently phoned her husband yesterdayAlanbrooke said:
it's as daft as giving Obama the nobel peace prize.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just caught the end of the breaking news but it really is going global involving many countries around the globe. Still waiting for full details but it apparently is her birthdayAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
Ludicrous and entirely politically motivated to keep the tragedy in the news cycleAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
Sounds like the eve of poll Trafalgar Square rally for No in indyref, would be better to wait until SaturdayBig_G_NorthWales said:
Just caught the end of the breaking news but it really is going global involving many countries around the globe. Still waiting for full details but it apparently is her birthdayAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
If Vote Leave pull this off with everything against them it will go down as one of the biggest electoral upsets ever.Alanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
Ten to one ?
I'd like to see it nine hundred thousand nine hundred ninety nine to one.
We've been acting like a reluctant virgin for decades.
0 -
Sorry, but a boat sailing down the Thames to the Houses of Parliament? A political rally in Trafalgar Square the day before the most important vote since 1975? Remain are not putting their thumb on the scales; they have tipped them over.
What a childish, emotionally incontinent nation we have become.0 -
I assume it is going to get huge media coverageHYUFD said:
Sounds like the eve of poll Trafalgar Square rally for No in indyref, would be better to wait until SaturdayBig_G_NorthWales said:
Just caught the end of the breaking news but it really is going global involving many countries around the globe. Still waiting for full details but it apparently is her birthdayAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
Well, go on, compare it! Sometimes people are afraid to write what they mean. Surely if PB is anything, it is a safe space for LEAVE.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Putney, I must agree.
Also interesting to compare this with the reaction to Lee Rigby's death.0 -
Most of us are at work at that time. Aren't we?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
Lowlander's mum is going to explode.0 -
Impeccable timing. I imagine Leave will be largely ignored from 3pm onwards with the broadcast media turning their attention to the tribute event.Norm said:
Ludicrous and entirely politically motivated to keep the tragedy in the news cycleAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
0 -
Mr. Norm, indeed.
The Diana reaction was ludicrously over-the-top. This appears to be going to same way, with a dose of political posturing.0 -
Of courseNorm said:
Ludicrous and entirely politically motivated to keep the tragedy in the news cycleAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
it's timed for the maximum referendum shroud waving on Wednesday, whereas Thursday the one week anniversary would make more sense.
Remain must be pumping this as their best chance to swing votes, but risky as it has the potential to backfire by pissing people off.0 -
I doubt it will get that much by then on eve of poll the media will largely have moved on and be focused on the referendum itself, the 2014 rally got a small mention and that was it. The main tribute was yesterday in YorkshireBig_G_NorthWales said:
I assume it is going to get huge media coverageHYUFD said:
Sounds like the eve of poll Trafalgar Square rally for No in indyref, would be better to wait until SaturdayBig_G_NorthWales said:
Just caught the end of the breaking news but it really is going global involving many countries around the globe. Still waiting for full details but it apparently is her birthdayAlanbrooke said:
madnessBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
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A State funeral is required.RoyalBlue said:Sorry, but a boat sailing down the Thames to the Houses of Parliament? A political rally in Trafalgar Square the day before the most important vote since 1975? Remain are not putting their thumb on the scales; they have tipped them over.
What a childish, emotionally incontinent nation we have become.0 -
Some think REMAIN should fight this referendum with their hands tied behind their back by EU red tape and with their feet undercut by a cheap Polish migrant worker, while the press blares IMMIGRANTS AND FREEDOM to all and sundry.RoyalBlue said:Sorry, but a boat sailing down the Thames to the Houses of Parliament? A political rally in Trafalgar Square the day before the most important vote since 1975? Remain are not putting their thumb on the scales; they have tipped them over.
What a childish, emotionally incontinent nation we have become.
Did LEAVE tactfully turn down the opportunity to make an issue out of the tragedies of the refugee crisis? No, they scaremongered about millions of Syrians and Turks.0 -
Did PB really think REMAIN would try not to win the referendum? Did it think all its enemies were as easy as Ed Miliband? How naive.0
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I really hope not - It does seem to have been arranged for her birthday but to co-ordinate events worldwide so quickly is amazing. It will also be interesting who the many contributors will be and how they convey their tributes. It is the last big event before the voteOUT said:
Most of us are at work at that time. Aren't we?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news saying there is going to be a worldwide tribute event to Jo Cox centred on Trafalgar Square at 4.00pm on Wednesday 22nd June to celebrate her life's work and all she stood for.
Lowlander's mum is going to explode.0 -
I think being out of politics is best for him and for politics. Let's hope he doesn't stay in touch like Heseltine and his increasingly embittered exhumations.kle4 said:
That seems unlikely - despite his EU views not being in vogue now, he has served his party for a very long time and in some very senior positions, I am sure he will be missed.MP_SE said:
I doubt many will miss him.TheScreamingEagles said:Greatest PM and Tory leader we never had is standing down in 2020
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1307392/political-heavyweight-ken-clarke-to-quit-politics-after-50-years-in-parliament/
I'm just sad as I was wondering if in the event of a Leave win he might be persuaded to stand for the LDs in 2020, just to troll those who like to say that a man who will have been a Tory MP for 50 years is not a Tory.0
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